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The world is largely focused on the war between Israel and Hamas, for obvious reasons. Mere days before this terrible conflict began, a lightly-reported moment occurred in Canada that could ultimately have a direct impact on our political process.

The first draft of the Liberals’ pharmacare legislation was rejected by Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Health Minister Mark Holland described negotiations between the two parties as “extremely fluid.” In contrast, NDP health critic Don Davies told the media the initial draft “doesn’t meet the New Democrats’ red lines at this point” and that they’re “waiting for a next draft to come to us.”

National pharmacare was one of several key policies identified by the two parties last March when they jointly signed a supply and confidence agreement to keep Parliament afloat until June 2025. “Continuing progress towards a universal national pharmacare program by passing a Canada Pharmacare Act by the end of 2023,” as highlighted in Delivering for Canadians Now, A Supply and Confidence Agreement, “and then tasking the National Drug Agency to develop a national formulary of essential medicines and bulk purchasing plan by the end of the agreement.”

One of the NDP’s main campaign planks during the 2021 federal election was related to national pharmacare. They wanted to introduce “a drug plan with universal coverage that will cover the total cost of expenditures on drugs listed on Quebec’s public drug plan formulary.” This led the Parliamentary Budget Officer to provide an open estimate to the NDP on Aug. 27, 2021. According to the PBO, this proposal could have reached an annual cost of nearly $11.5 billion by 2025-26.

No party leader could ever spin this huge amount of public spending in a positive fashion. Unless you’re somehow able to convince people that money grows on trees, that is.

Hence, the three-year supply and confidence agreement is the NDP’s only realistic opportunity to get some semblance of its national pharmacare plan in place. Yet, they’re currently taking an unrealistic approach that won’t help achieve this lofty goal.

According to the Canadian Press on Oct. 5, “Davies said the NDP will accept nothing less than a commitment to pharmacare paid for and administered through the public single-payer system, though it doesn’t have to happen all at once. The NDP would be willing to start with essential medicines and expand from there, he said, but wants to see the timelines enshrined in the legislation.”

The federal government knows full well this isn’t doable. The costs of implementing the NDP’s vision of national pharmacare are way too high to begin with. When you add in the current affordability crisis that’s hurting many Canadian families, it’s not even a discussion worth having. That’s why Holland and the Liberals likely believe the two sides will meet somewhere in the middle once the negotiations are done.

But what if they don’t?

Today’s NDP has been gradually turning into a party where the fringe left has acquired more power and influence within the grassroots membership. Last weekend’s party convention in Hamilton, Ont. provided several indications of this.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators disrupted the proceedings for a spell, for instance, which led the police to getting involved. Counter Signal circulated a bizarre video clip that dealt with yellow cards being provided to some NDP delegates to “enforce gender parity at the mics” during the debates. Singh survived his leadership review, but only received 81 percent support – down from 2018 (91 percent) and 2021 (87 percent). His left-wing leadership evidently isn’t far enough to the left to satisfy some of his party faithful.

To top it off, NDP delegates gave unanimous support to make pharmacare the redline in their supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals. Maybe the two parties won’t meet in the middle, after all.

Is the NDP getting prepared to bring down the Liberals before June 2025? While it’s difficult to say with absolute certainty, it’s starting to look a bit more likely. They’re in the best position to bring down the curtain on Trudeau’s mediocre, ineffective leadership, after all.

The risks are huge. The NDP will lose its influential role in propping up the Liberals. Polls currently show Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in majority territory. The party doesn’t have much money in its war chest to run an effective campaign. It’s largely devoid of mainstream ideas that Canadian progressives would naturally support.

At the same time, Singh and his senior advisers may privately believe they have enough momentum to leapfrog the weakened Liberals and become the Official Opposition once more. A second political breakthrough, similar to the late Jack Layton’s memorable “Orange Crush” in the 2011 election, could be worth the gamble in both the short term and long term.

It may all come down to Liberal-NDP negotiations related to a wildly expensive national pharmacare plan and an imaginary redline. Hard to believe, when you think about it.

Michael Taube, a long-time newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.

 

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


In Canada as elsewhere autumn 2023 is a strange political time on various fronts. And it is not always easy to know just what to make of various opinion polling anomalies.

Take the case of two late September Canada-wide polls, broken down for federal parties in the third most populous province of BC, between the vast Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains.

On the evening of September 28 the almost always interesting Polling Canada tweeted the BC provincial results of an EKOS federal poll taken September 19–24. As in the country at large this showed the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) well out in front, with a remarkable 53% of the provincial vote. The NDP had 22% and the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) only 12%.

At almost the same time, in the early morning of the same day Polling Canada had tweeted the BC provincial results of a Leger federal poll taken September 22–24. This proposed a rather dramatically different BC provincial picture: LPC 32%, NDP 30%, and CPC.29%.

With the confidence and supply agreement between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in mind (both of whom have particular BC connections), these Leger numbers could be read to suggest that the province sometimes known as British California may have now become a progressive bastion in Canada, broadly comparable to Gavin Newsom’s California in the USA.

What all this could suggest about BC seems especially striking when set beside the Ontario results of the same Leger federal poll taken September 22–24: CPC 45%, LPC 28%, NDP 18%.

These Leger Ontario numbers look more like the EKOS numbers for BC. Partisans of the BC EKOS poll raise methodological issues with the Leger poll. On Twitter (now  X),  Polling Canada offers a methodological note on its BC Leger poll:  “Sample size = 141 Online.”

Several commenting tweets urge this size is just too small. Yet 141 would be BC’s approximate share of the Canada-wide population in a cross-country sample of 1,000 people. And the EKOS poll whose results Leger poll critics like better has a Canada-wide sample of 1,025.

Methodologically, Polling Canada just notes “IVR” on  its BC EKOS poll. And veteran polling guru Allan Gregg has quietly criticized “the interactive voice response (IVR) surveys that bombard telephone numbers with recorded questions which, quite frankly, isn’t any more scientific than … trying to stop people … on a street corner.”

Finally, in the technical rating of  Canadian federal pollsters proposed by physics and astrophysics professor Philippe J. Fournier’s 338Canada website EKOS gets B+ and Leger A+!

All this having been said, there does remain an obvious enough sense in which less than 150 observations is not a very good sample size for political opinion polling.

Yet the insurmountable general problem here is that cross-Canada samples large enough to provide seriously reliable regional results are prohibitively expensive. (The average country-wide sample size of the most recent half-dozen polls followed by 338Canada is 1,385!)

The typical smaller-number, less reliable regional samples in Canada-wide polls are sometimes intriguing — and even revealing. But regional inconsistencies in these cost-effective soundings of Canadian opinion at large are not unusual. It is almost always wise to treat regional results of cross-country polls with  grains of well-seasoned salt.

All this having been said again, there remains some further support for the Leger poll’s Canadian bastion of progress on the Pacific coast in recent polling on BC provincial politics.

338Canada’s latest model of a BC election held now shows the NDP with 71 seats, BC United (old BC Liberals) 11 seats, Greens 3, and Conservatives 2. In the early autumn of 2023 the progressive NDP BC provincial government  — under new leader David Eby, but in office since the spring of 2017 — is arguably in greater command of provincial politics than ever before.

(And, it is tempting to wonder, is this somehow related to the 2023 wildfires?)

The ultimate truth probably is that both the recent EKOS and Leger polls reflect different strands in the complex web of BC provincial and federal politics. Both clusters of regional opinion are out there in the wet coast air.

The big question for the near-enough future is no doubt which of the two rather different late September 2023 BC polling pictures  will prevail in the next federal election on or before October 20, 2025— EKOS’s conservative dominance or Leger’s progressive bastion? The answer could have something to do with the futures of both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Canada and the US utilize different political systems. The former uses the Westminster model for parliamentary government, which includes an elected House of Commons and (mostly) unelected Senate. The latter uses a presidential system and constitutional federal republic, which includes elected assemblies in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The two countries do have a few political similarities. Both elect a Speaker of the House, for instance. The role tends to be of a more independent nature in Canada, and more ideologically partisan in the US. Nevertheless, this individual is supposed to manage the day-to-day proceedings of the Canadian Parliament and US Congress, respectively.

In a strange quirk of history, the House Speaker role in both countries has simultaneously experienced an unusually high amount of political turmoil.

Anthony Rota, a Liberal MP who had served as Canada’s Speaker of the House for nearly four years, invited 98-year-old Yaroslav Hunka to be honoured during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Sept. 22 visit. Rota described Hunka, one of his constituents in North Bay, as a “Ukrainian Canadian war veteran from the Second World War who fought for Ukrainian independence against the Russians” as well as “a Ukrainian hero, a Canadian hero, and we thank him for all his service.”

The war veteran received a standing ovation in Parliament, and plenty of smiles on both sides of the House. That is, until people started to connect the dots and realized that a huge mistake had been made. Hunka had served in the First Ukrainian Division during the Second World War, which was also known as the Waffen-SS Galicia Division and SS 14th Waffen Division. This division was a voluntary unit commanded by Nazi Germany that’s been accused of murdering Jewish and Polish civilians.

An actual Nazi had been honoured in the House of Commons. Rota was humiliated and issued an apology within days. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were embarrassed by the actions of the Speaker and a caucus colleague. The opposition parties, who were also on their feet that day, pointed blame squarely at Rota, Trudeau and the Liberals and the clear lack of a proper vetting process.

Rota resigned as House Speaker on Sept. 26. While the Hunka invitation was unintentional, it was a massive error in judgment that couldn’t be swept under the rug. There was no other alternative but to step down.

This led to Bloc Quebecois MP Louis Plamondon taking over the role on an interim basis. Plamondon, who was elected as a Progressive Conservative in 1984, became the first-ever Speaker from the BQ, a separatist party. While uneventful, it was a strange moment in Canadian politics and the shortest-ever tenure of a House Speaker.

This led to the Oct. 3 vote for a new Speaker. Greg Fergus, a Liberal MP and the acknowledged front-runner, defeated three fellow Liberals (Sean Casey, Alexandra Mendès and Peter Schiefke), Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont, NDP MP Carol Hughes and Green Party leader Elizabeth May in a secret ballot vote. Stéphane Lauzon, a Liberal MP who had also put his name forward, withdrew before the voting started.

Liberal MPs seemed pleased with this decision. Fergus became Canada’s first Black House Speaker, and they felt the political turmoil involving this role would end.

Then again, maybe it won’t.

Fergus’s skills as a politician are highly suspect. He got into some hot water during a Jan. 25, 2021 appearance on CTV’s Power Play. After pointing out that more COVID-19 vaccine approvals were needed to meet a Sept. 2021 target, he confidently mentioned two vaccines, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, that hadn’t been approved in Canada at that point. CTV got in touch with then-Liberal Procurement Minister Anita Anand, who confirmed her government’s position hadn’t changed. Fergus issued an apology.

Fergus was also found guilty of an ethics violation this February. He broke the Conflict of Interest Act as Trudeau’s parliamentary secretary after writing a letter of support to the CRTC for a television channel that had applied for mandatory carriage. Parliamentary rules forbid ministers and parliamentary secretaries from writing letters of support. This is something that only MPs can do.

A mediocre politician with an ethics violation is Canada’s new House Speaker. The bar has been lowered yet again.

Meanwhile, Kevin McCarthy, who was elected US House Speaker on Jan. 7 after 15 agonizing ballots, the fifth longest in American history, became the first person in this role to be removed.

The right-leaning Freedom Caucus within the GOP was furious with McCarthy’s decision to make a deal with House Democrats to pass a funding resolution that would prevent a government shutdown. “We’re going to be adults in the room. And we’re going to keep government open,” McCarthy said. “If somebody wants to remove me because I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try.”

This was more than enough motivation for Matt Gaetz. The controversial Republican House Representative filed a motion to vacate on Oct. 2. While it initially seemed unlikely to succeed, the slim four-seat Republican majority that’s basically propped up the Freedom Caucus withered away. Eight Republicans, including Gaetz, voted for the no-confidence motion and were joined by the entire Democratic caucus.

The final vote was 216-210 to remove McCarthy. The Speaker’s seat was declared vacant. Republican Patrick McHenry was appointed Speaker pro tempore, and McCarthy unsurprisingly confirmed he wouldn’t run again.

While McCarthy’s leadership was far from flawless, it had been more than adequate. He really didn’t deserve this fate. Gaetz and his political allies have therefore unnecessarily thrown the House into turmoil – and hurt their own political brand in the process. With a looming government shutdown in roughly 40 days, the Republicans need to somehow get behind a new candidate for Speaker – and fast.

Who would have ever believed the House Speaker’s role in Canada and the US would have travelled on the same messy path, albeit for separate reasons? For all of our political differences, one similarity has stood out. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


According to the headlines Justin Trudeau has now apologized for applauding a Nazi in the Commons chamber. I’m not sure he did, or that he or the press know what an “apology” actually is. Or a great many things including what branch of government failed most dramatically in this disgraceful episode.

The Speaker has belatedly fallen on his mace, and the Treasury benches seem convinced it settles the matter. Not that they’d realize they were the “Treasury benches”. That phrase, familiar in Wilfrid Laurier’s day, refers to those MPs who support the current ministry on money bills and thus keep it in power. A point that clearly eludes the fancy empty suit known as Jagmeet Singh.

If I seem pedantically off-topic, let me attempt to justify my position by saying this entire debacle would not have happened if members of Parliament knew more about history. For instance who fought whom in World War II. As I recently complained in the Epoch Times, the problem here is that not one MP apparently realized if someone fought Russia in that conflict they might well have been on the wrong side. How did they not know?

As so often, lots of practice. As I also lamented in that column, “François-Philippe Champagne, minister of Foreign Affairs for over a year before flitting into Innovation, Science and Industry, recently tweeted, ‘Canada and Japan are, and always have been, strong allies and partners.’” So evidently he didn’t realize we were deadly enemies from 1940 though 1945.

Yes, 1940. Japan entered the war that September. Although arguably it started the whole thing in 1931, or 1937. But do not ask our Parliamentarians to tell you what that aside is about, let alone which side Japan was on in World War I and why. Or anyone else, since as far as I can tell, I was the only person who noticed Champagne’s egregious blunder.

Nor, indeed, would I want to surprise MPs with the question of why in that column after writing “if someone fought the Russians during World War II he wasn’t on our side” I added “Unless he was Finnish or Polish before 1941”. And level with me here: If you were to give every member of the House of Commons a pop quiz on who the main belligerents were in World War II and what side they were on, how confident are you that any of them would get it right? Winter War? What Winter War?

On that point I should mention that Pierre Poilievre and his associates are trying to tie this international embarrassment for Canada to the Liberals. But the Tories all stood and applauded too. Had not one of them read, say, Churchill’s history of the war? Or the Wikipedia article? So they too are guilty, of the act and the mens rea or in this case mens inanis. Talk about a tabula rasa.

Or don’t, because I wouldn’t count on them knowing that phrase either, or in what century John Locke wrote, let alone when and why he returned from exile. Glorious Revolution? What Glorious Revolution?

Indeed, how confident are you that any member of Parliament, and the Prime Minister in particular, could pass a pop quiz on almost any subject, historical or otherwise? Some of them, being lawyers, might manage a narrowly focused legal one; these people are not all dolts despite the impression they work hard to give.

Some genuinely are, which I guess is some kind of excuse. Though not for voters. But I wonder whether Justin Trudeau could even pass a quiz on current events in Canada. (For instance: How many actual bodies have been found in unmarked residential-school graves?) Is there one single subject on which you would bet on him knowing anything of importance? Could he tell you Canada’s GDP without briefing notes? Or this year’s projected deficit?

He doesn’t even seem to realize orthodox Islam leans conservative on gender and sexuality. (Think he’s read the Koran?) Or that not everyone who opposes the radical woke position on any point is a Nazi. Or who really is a Nazi.

Or as noted what an apology is. He’s mighty good at “apologizing” for what other people did and how far they fell short of his sublime excellence. But in this case, even while accepting personal responsibility to an unusual degree, he shrugged it off: “All of us who were in the House on Friday regret deeply having stood and clapped, even though we did so unaware of the context.”

Pfui. What you really need to apologize for is clapping enthusiastically to signal virtue without knowing “the context”. And for not knowing the context. As in who fought the Soviets on the Eastern Front after 1941. (Hint: It wasn’t Gondor. Nor is it a state secret.) Trudeau did say “It is important that we learn from this. It reaffirms the need to keep promoting and investing in Holocaust education.” There’s that telltale “continue/keep” meme when the problem is MPs don’t know who fought in the war that featured the Holocaust.

I also don’t think most MPs understand the history of the institution in which they are privileged to sit. If you asked them to identify and explain the significance of Charles I could they? Let alone Edward CokeWilliam Lenthall or Stephen Langton? When Poilievre says “Every single person ought to have been vetted for their diplomatic and security sensitivities if the prime minister and his massive apparatus were doing their jobs” he seems unaware of the crucial constitutional importance, and exciting history, of Parliament managing its own affairs instead of letting the Executive do it.

Indeed MPs, and journalists, don’t even seem to know “Sorry, but…” is not an apology but sneaky self-justification. An apology is where you admit blame and accept punishment.

If I might interject a pretentious aside (another one, you cry?) my daily online “Words Worth Noting” for today was “His imperfections flowed from the contagion of the times: his virtues were his own.” Which isn’t just an important reflection on how to judge people in the past but is Edward Gibbon on Belisarius (and quoted by George Kennan). Whoever they were.

So how did we get here? Or rather, how did they get there? Well, in the case of MPs we elected them. And most of them, and us, and my fellow journalists, were educated in government-run schools. So let me switch the focus and ask how confident you are that your children, or any others you see flocking into and out of those dreary state buildings, know the sine law, or the parts of speech. Or could say with confidence when World War I was, or spontaneously utter a coherent sentence in both official languages. Or either. And on and on.

On the other hand, here’s a list of things students reliably do “know”: we’re roasting the planet; there are dozens of genders; thousands of bodies have been found of murdered residential school children; non-woke Canada is a hotbed of Naziism.

Government is broken in so many areas in Canada today that it becomes wearisome to keep track. But we can’t let them grind us down because government is a necessary evil and we must grasp the necessity while guarding against the evil. So here’s another question I’d like to put to MPs, voters and even students: Why do we let the government run our schools? If we trust the state, our history teachers didn’t do their job. Or did, depending what their paymasters wanted.

I won’t quote On Liberty here on this point again. Or even ask “Who was John Stuart Mill?” or “What are Mill’s three key arguments for free speech?” though I once got to explain them to a Commons committee, whereupon I, Mark Steyn and Lindsay Shepherd were filibustered by an NDP MP. But I would ask “Who was George Orwell?” and “What is the main point of Nineteen Eighty-Four?”

That the state should require parents to educate their children, and set basic achievement standards, seems to me incontrovertible. To leave your child illiterate is a grotesque violation of their rights. As is leaving them in total ignorance of science, literature and history. But that state schools have done all these things to a large portion of the population is increasingly hard to ignore, and surely impossible to condone.

So my final pop quiz for MPs and anyone else concerned that Canada has become a profoundly and smugly unserious place in a serious world: “Do you support school vouchers? Who first proposed them and when? Who opposes them and what self-interested motives might they have? Why don’t citizens demand control over their children’s education so (a) it will actually be one and (b) our Parliamentarians have basic knowledge of the Second World War?”

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


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The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


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