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The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
This content is restricted to subscribers
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
This content is restricted to subscribers
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump beat Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 presidential election. He won the all-important electoral college by 312 to 226 votes, his biggest margin of victory in three elections. Trump will also win the popular vote for the first time, and likely end up a whisker above or below 50 percent.
Several political commentators have suggested this year’s presidential election signalled the end of the era in U.S. politics. They claim it brought down the curtain on former President Barack Obama’s influence – and, in effect, current President Joe Biden, who served as Obama’s Vice-President. There’s certainly something to this analysis, although it’s probably too early to make this pronouncement.
One thing does seem clear. Trump’s victory is a powerful repudiation of the Democratic Party shifting way to the left.
James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist, blasted his party for succumbing to “wokeism” – or, as he prefers to call it, “identitarianism.” He told New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd in a Nov. 9 interview that voters started to perceive “identity is more important than humanity.” He believes this was a fatal error in political judgment.
“We could never wash off the stench of it,” Carville said, specifically describing the strategy to “defund the police” as the “three stupidest words in the English language.” As he amusingly told Dowd, “it’s like when you get smoke on your clothes and you have to wash them again and again. Now people are running away from it like the devil runs away from holy water.”
There’s also Doug Schoen, another longtime Democratic strategist who regularly appears on Fox News. In a Nov. 6 op-ed for its website, he wrote that Trump’s election win was a “repudiation of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. There is no other way to see it. With over a 2 to 1 advantage in financial resources, the office of the vice presidency and the support of financial and political elites across the country, the fact that Donald Trump has won a convincing victory, in spite of a campaign that clearly got distracted in the last week, speaks volumes about the message the American electorate was sending in this election.”
Schoen provided some additional forward-thinking analysis. “Put another way, voters want a new economic policy that emphasizes smaller government, deregulation and lower taxes,” he suggested. “They want the wall completed and illegal immigration eliminated as much as possible. And they want the crime problem addressed fundamentally and systemically. The election results also suggest the limitations of the abortion issue as a motivating force. Put simply, the fact that the Democrats put virtually all their firepower behind the choice issue suggests the weakness of that appeal.”
This reminded me of Schoen’s 2007 book, The Power of the Vote: Electing Presidents, Overthrowing Dictators, and Promoting Democracy Around the World. A campaign consultant for over 40 years, he’s critiqued the Democratic Party’s leftward tilt for decades. Through the teachings of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, he came to understand that George McGovern lost the 1972 presidential race to Richard Nixon not due to “race hatred,” but rather because the former “had run a terrible general election campaign” and “abandoned the center.”
He was also concerned about the rise of left-wing populist politicians like Howard Dean. The Democrats had become vulnerable against the threat of the left, and the main support base was with liberal voters and little else. He was equally critical of Al Gore’s 2000 and John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaigns, the latter of which he felt was a repudiation of the party by the voters for this leftward drift.
The Power of the Vote suggested a path to avoid defeat in 2008. “Democrats must face a hard truth: we do not have a natural majority coalition in American politics,” he wrote, and they must work hard to regain their old political coalition. He wanted to see a return to centrist Democratic positions with three mainstream political values: “opportunity (giving every American a chance to succeed), responsibility (the duties we owe to each other), and community (preserving and promoting families).”
Obama, as we know, won the 2008 election. He was a politician of the left, but masked his deficiencies by implementing Schoen’s language and values in his platform. It’s unclear whether this was an intentional strategy, or he and his team accurately read the political tea leaves. Either way, it helped him beat John McCain, a maverick Republican with moderate conservative policies.
Biden moved away from his more natural home in the political centre during his one term in office. His administration attempted to appease progressives and far-left activists at every turn. It weakened his public image, and his poor health and weakened state would have led him down the road to defeat against Trump had he stayed in the race.
Harris’s failed 2024 campaign was similar to McGovern’s failed 1972 campaign. Her deficiencies were far worse, however.
She was a “lousy candidate,” as I pointed out in a Nov. 8 National Post column, who was politically vapid and struggled mightily to explain her policies during tough and friendly interviews. Harris looked out of her element time and time again. Meanwhile, her campaign with Tim Walz “may very well be the most left-leaning ticket the Democrats have ever put forward in a presidential election,” as I noted in an Aug. 23 National Post column.“Harris’ political ideology is also more left-wing than Biden’s ever was on his worst day. She’s pro-abortion, pro-affirmative action, supportive of strict gun-control legislation, a defender of sanctuary cities, believer in restrictive environmental protection laws and one of 10 senators to oppose the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement because it didn’t tackle climate change. She’s a progressive’s progressive.”
Roger Kimball of The New Criterion went even further. He stated in an Oct. 25 Daily Telegraph op-ed that Harris was “the single worst candidate for president from any party in the history of the Republic.” It’s hard to argue with this astute assessment.
To quote an old proverb, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” Case in point, the Democratic Party and its far-left tendencies. Senior leadership needs to listen to Carville, Schoen and others and shift back to the political centre. If not, they face the grim prospect of repeated defeats in future presidential elections.
Michael Taube, a long-time newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
Donald Trump will be back in the White House and panic is setting in in Canada. There is no denying that Donald Trump’s first presidency brought significant upheaval. His controversial positions, his aggressive communication style, his unorthodox approach to politics and governance, and his capacity to get away with murder – well, with other crimes anyway – is met with a mix of fascination and alarm. But, as depressing as his victory might be for many, Canadians need to take a step back and calm down about President Trump and his influence on Canada.
The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner. We share deep economic, diplomatic, cultural, and social ties. Of course, any shift in American politics can have ripple effects in Canada. For instance, many believe that part of Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory in 2019 was in reaction to Donald Trump’s presidency. The contrast between the two men couldn’t be starker, while Pierre Poilievre’s approach and tactics are easily compared to Trump’s Republicans. Many lifted directly from Trump’s playbook.
The Canadian media coverage of U.S. politics skyrocketed in the run up to the US election. From daily social media posts to round-the-clock coverage to special envoys in the most obscure areas of deep America, Canadians have been constantly exposed to the horse race. With Joe Biden faltering, a sense of anxiety was setting in, until Canadians collectively sighed a breath of relief when Kamala Harris took over the Democratic ticket. Bonus points for her, she went to school right here at home, in Montreal. Yes, she can! With the exception of about half the Conservative voters and a handful of other party supporters, Canadians were rooting for Kamala.
On that note, a lesson for the Liberal rebels, who saw in Biden’s replacement by Harris a recipe to handle their own fate by deposing Justin Trudeau and replacing him with an as of yet unknown saviour. The truth is that Hail Mary passes rarely work in politics. Either you make a change early to handle electoral fatigue, or you stick with your leader to weather the storm.
With Trump’s most recent win, the disappointment felt by some of our American friends has been enormous and the reactions visceral. For that reason, the Canadian media coverage will not slow down. All of Trump’s statements, tweets, and policy proposals will be scrutinized and analyzed with a Canadian lens. This intense coverage will heighten our collective anxiety. How could this happen again? Perhaps we should start thinking about how it could happen here?
Trump’s return to the White House has already triggered a series of political, governance and even policing decisions. Quebec Premier François Legault has expressed concerns about a potential “massive influx of immigrants” into the province following Trump’s victory, stating once again that Quebec has already reached its capacity to welcome newcomers. Legault urged Canada to “act quickly” to secure the border in anticipation of a possible wave of migrants seeking refuge, like many did following Trump’s first presidency. Not to be outdone, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is fearmongering about “millions” of people who might consider moving north following Trump’s election.
As a result, the border between Canada and the United States is now under closer surveillance. The RCMP say they are fully prepared to handle a potential migration crisis caused by an influx of individuals without legal status fleeing the US before President Trump goes ahead with his deportation policy. The RCMP has deployed officers on the ground and developed contingency plans to bring in additional reinforcements if necessary.
But for the immediate future, nothing really changes except perception. While it’s natural to feel concerned about American leadership, Canada’s best approach is to engage constructively and pragmatically with whoever is in office. The early public statements from the Trudeau government are reflecting exactly that, despite the defeated body language of Foreign Affairs’ Minister Mélanie Joly after the election.
The media saturation has led to an exaggeration of the actual impact on Canadians’ lives. But we survived his first presidency and we will survive his second. The Apocalypse is not upon us. Hopefully…
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
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RegisterThe Economist recently examined the after-effects of the Sept. 10 debate between former U.S. Republican president Donald Trump and Democratic vice-president Kamala Harris. More specifically, the venerable publication highlighted what it viewed as Harris’s post-debate bounce.
According to the Sept. 21 piece, The Economist’s poll tracker showed “Kamala Harris’s nationwide lead over Donald Trump has widened to 4.5 percentage points, from 3.8 points on September 10th, the day of their debate. A 0.7-point improvement is small but potentially significant, and gives Ms Harris her biggest lead yet in our tracker.” The magazine also noted that “it takes a while for new polls to show whether the debate moved the needle on polling averages. The needle has now budged.” It even suggested “the true picture may be even rosier for Ms Harris than aggregated scores suggest, since her bounce is still held down by pre-debate polling.”
While this sounded promising, The Economist also recognized that Harris’s post-debate bounce “comes with two caveats.” The first one was straightforward, “it is not the popular vote that determines who wins, but the electoral college, where the outcome will hinge on a handful of swing states.” It’s a point that many political observers either ignore or conveniently forget when it comes to U.S. presidential elections. As for the second caveat, it was even simpler: “a lot could still change.”
That’s exactly what has happened.
A Sept. 24 CNN/SSRS poll noted that “48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race.” FiveThirtyEight listed Harris ahead of Trump 48.3 to 45.8 percent as of Sept. 24, which is a margin of error. RealClearPolitics, which is an aggregate, had Harris in front by 47.9 to 45.8 percent on Sept. 24 – and listed Trump ahead by one percent in a recent Quinnipiac poll.
What does this mean? Harris’s post-debate bounce has been supplanted by Trump’s post-post-debate bounce. That’s not terribly surprising: no matter who had won the Sept. 10 debate, an election bounce was always going to be short-lived.
Winning a modern presidential debate is nearly impossible. Political leaders and parties go through massive amounts of preparation for potential questions and follow-ups. While the chances of a knockout blow are very slim, candidates still learn canned (or memorized) lines, facts and figures to hopefully score some quick jabs. They will engage in mock debates with stand-ins who are asked to mimic their political rivals. And while a few mistakes will undoubtedly happen, most pitfalls, trip-ups and holes in logic are typically dealt with during debate prep.
Today’s presidential debates have therefore become predictable, heavily scripted affairs where major party candidates are coached from start to finish. Which isn’t to say there hasn’t been a few presidential debates that ultimately changed the course of an election.
The first general election debate between John F. Kennedy (Democrat) and Richard Nixon (Republican) on Sept. 26, 1960 is still widely regarded as a major turning point. While most radio listeners believed that Nixon had won the debate, the television audience felt that Kennedy won handily. This was largely due to several factors unrelated to policy, including Nixon’s unfamiliarity with this new format and his refusal to wear makeup under the bright television lights. Kennedy handled the moment better and looked more poised throughout the discussion. Although Nixon performed better in the following three debates, fewer TV viewers tuned in and the damage from the first debate couldn’t be rectified.
There’s also the second U.S. presidential debate between incumbent Ronald Reagan (Republican) and Walter Mondale (Democrat) on Oct. 21, 1984. The former had lost the first debate and was only slightly ahead in the polls. Reagan was far more prepared to combat Mondale this evening, and gave the debate performance of a lifetime. He even famously quipped at one stage, “I want you to know also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” This moment helped turn a close election into a runaway for the Gipper.
The June 27 debate between Trump and President Joe Biden could be thrown into the mix, too.
Biden had a disastrous debate performance against Trump. He stumbled, made little sense and lost his train of thought on several occasions. Trump, who was slightly ahead in most opinion polls, soon took a commanding lead. This was an unexpected turn of events: Trump had lost the popular vote in 2016 (when he beat Hillary Clinton) and 2020 (when he was defeated by Biden). Things would have likely tightened up before the November election. Had this match-up continued, it’s still difficult to imagine a scenario where Trump didn’t win back the White House.
When Biden dropped out in July, a large number of frustrated progressive voters opted to back Harris as his replacement. Biden’s debate performance became a thing of the past. The left-right divide in the ideological rigid U.S. had been recreated, and the odds of a close presidential election had re-materialized. The small post-debate bounce notwithstanding, that’s where things currently stand.
A final thought. Some political pundits and commentators actually suggested the Harris-Trump debate was similar to the Biden-Trump debate, and could turn the tide of the election. Not only was this comparison inaccurate and rather ludicrous, it was never going to happen. History has shown that presidential debates rarely move the political needle in the direction of one candidate on a permanent basis. To paraphrase The Economist, there are simply too many caveats.
Michael Taube, a long-time newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
Since getting the ticket from the hands of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has been hard at work to define Donald Trump – and his entourage – as extremist.
“Donald Trump has picked his new running mate: J.D. Vance. Trump looked for someone he knew would be a rubber stamp for his extreme agenda,” she said a few days after Trump picked his VP candidate.
At the Democratic National Convention, they also framed Trump as an extremist, bringing moderate Republicans to the stage to denounce the 45th President.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is going at Harris with all the class and fury he can muster since she became the presumptive democratic nominee. “She is a radical left lunatic who will destroy our country if she ever gets the chance to get into office,” Trump said in July at a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Extreme. Radical. These words carry significant weight. Is that really the choice Americans must make?
You are extreme when your positions or actions deviate significantly from what is considered mainstream or moderate. It is not just different, but dangerously out of step with societal norms.
You are a radical when you propose fundamental and immediate change to societal, cultural, and political structures and systems. It is not only breaking from the status quo, but doing so in an abrupt, risky way, endangering social order in the process.
For the longest time, America’s political culture preferred gradualism and pragmatism. The country’s political system is designed to promote compromise and incremental change. The checks and balances that are in place make it difficult to move forward with an extreme or a radical agenda. Or so it used to be.
So here we are today. Over 40% of the population are staunch Donald Trump supporters and not only reject the “extreme” label but are offended by it. And over 40% of American voters are quite supportive of Kamala Harris’ agenda and do not see any radicalism in it, far from it in fact.
So why are these terms being used so much? Delegitimizing the opposition is the obvious answer, but since most voters don’t buy it, why use it at all? Because of the swing voters still at play, an ever-shrinking pool of the electorate, maybe around 10%. And especially the swing voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states amount to 30 million actual voters, most of them spoken for and not swinging. Leaving around 3 million votes up for grabs.
This group of elusive voters in these battleground states are the key to deciding the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. The political polarization, characterized by a more divided electorate with fewer voters in the middle, has been caused in part by the increase of over-the-top rhetoric as the basic lines of attacks along with record amounts of money spent on attack ads.
Instead of turning down the heat and putting forward a more measured tone to the political discourse, Republicans have doubled down and Democrats are all in. Both parties are engaged in an arms race to further divide and polarize the electorate, to crystallize the swing vote in their favour. That’s all that matters and, sadly, while both candidates are calling for unity, it ain’t coming anytime soon.
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
This content is restricted to subscribers
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.
This content is restricted to subscribers
The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.