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A Canada Post mail carrier walks past a mailbox.

The recent Canada Post strike lasted a month last winter, causing havoc with passport delivery and harming small businesses during the seasonal rush. One of the last major actions of the previous Liberal government was o

rdering postal workers back to work a week before Christmas.

But this reprieve from labour unrest in one of Canada’s most troubled Crown corporations is proving brief. As two deadlines near, another Canada Post strike is possible as early as later this month.

Negotiations between Canada Post and its union resumed this week, after breaking off without agreement in March. The existing collective agreements expire on May 22, paving the way for a potential lockout or strike.

A week before that, on May 15, recommendations are due to be delivered by William Kaplan, head of an Industrial Inquiry Commission that heard submissions in January on the fate of Canada Post, whose budget is in crisis and whose mandate is arguably doomed by society’s shift from paper to digitized information.

In February, Canada Post laid off approximately 50 management employees, calling its financial situation “critical” and its current losses “increasingly unsustainable.”

That followed earlier executive layoffs and a $1-billion dollar loan from the federal government announced in January.

Now, with collective agreements set to expire, the 55,000 postal workers who were on strike in December might find themselves back in the same position, fighting layoffs with a strike mandate.

Some banks have started notifying customers that a possible Canada Post strike could interrupt some of their services that rely on regular mail.

“We know this ongoing uncertainty is challenging for your business,” Canada Post said in a statement to customers. “We had hoped new agreements would be reached by this point — and providing you with this certainty remains our priority. We will make every effort to be transparent and let you know if there is a risk of a labour disruption.”

“It’s no secret that this has been a challenging round of bargaining for all of us,” said Jan Simpson, national president of the Canadian Union of Postal Workers in an update on the bargaining. “Yet, through it all, the Union has held strong towards achieving its goal: securing good collective agreements that provide workers with fair wages, health and safety protections, job security, and the right to retire with dignity.”

“Canada Post is in steep decline,” said Ian Lee, associate professor in the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, who worked in finance for Canada Post in the 1980s and is a prominent advocate for wholesale reform.

“Even then, there were a lot of post offices that were losing a lot of money,” he said. But the problems have grown worse, and they are accelerating. Since the high water mark of delivering 5.5 billion letters in 2006, Canada Post has seen a decline in that number every year.

Canada Post’s workforce has not declined at anywhere near a similar pace, such that it is now “hemorrhaging cash,” Lee said. The government loan simply “kicked the can down the road.” Now that they have caught up to it, and with the union and management in “irreconcilable” positions about cost reductions, a strike looks likely.

This has been building for years. Canada Post’s parcel service lost market share to increased competition since the pandemic, Lee said, and the ad mail service is small but comparatively healthy. The letters are in precipitous decline, though, which Lee said calls into the question the very project of having mail carriers walk past the same homes every weekday, regardless if each has new mail.

He said the union is in “deep denial” about the collapsing business. If trends continue, and letter mail continues as just the preference of the elderly, as Lee put it, then in a few years letter mail will “essentially vanish.”

“There’ll be no mail to deliver,” he said. “Their only hope is to reinvent themselves as a parcel post company.”

For international comparison, Canadians often look to the Royal Mail in Britain, which like the Netherlands has a publicly traded national postal service that was spun out from a state owned one.

But Lee said the closer comparison is with the United States, especially given that both North American countries span five time zones, whereas Britain and the Netherlands are smaller and denser.

The U.S. Postal Service is in similar trouble to Canada Post, Lee said. It has been pursuing a cost cutting program, but says in recent a financial statement that it needs “further administrative and legislative reform.”

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Former prime minister Justin Trudeau told his son he's missed one of the two videos the young RnB performer has released.

Few can say for certain what Justin Trudeau has been doing since he resigned in March, but he hasn’t found time to watch one of his son’s new music videos.

After being all but invisible since his resignation and throughout the recent election, the former prime minister resurfaced on social media this week, showing up in

a short Instagram clip

promoting his oldest son Xavier’s latest music video.

The father-son duo, wearing headphones and seated in front of a microphone, are vibing to the younger’s Back Me Up and its accompanying video, which features him performing and dancing, when they share a laugh.

“So I have three videos now. So far,” the 17-year-old says as it cuts to a closeup.

“Yeah, I think I missed one of the videos,” his 53-year-old father admits, as the camera switches to him.

“How?” asks the seemingly young man who goes by Xav. “You gotta watch that.”

Trudeau tells his son that he doesn’t “have social media,” leading Xav to inquire who runs his father’s Instagram and whether he curates it himself.

“Uh…” a seemingly dumbfounded Trudeau says as the video ends.

 Justin Trudeau, who posted an Instagram selfie from Canadian Tire, told his son he doesn’t have social media.

Canadians haven’t seen much of Trudeau since he officially resigned in March, setting the stage for an election call.

Shortly after his requisite speech at the Liberal leadership convention, where he handed over the party reins to now-Prime Minister Mark Carney, he appeared on

an episode of PBS’s “Canada Files”

in an exit interview taped before he left office.

“I’m just looking forward to getting a certain level of life back and figuring out a pace that is not the unbelievable intensity of being a prime minister, even though I loved it every step of the way,” he told host Valerie Pringle near the end of their discussion.

A few days after it aired, Trudeau posted

a selfie with a cart full of kitchen utensils and appliances.

“Gotta love a Monday morning at Canadian Tire,” he captioned the photo in both official languages.

His only campaign appearance was alongside Liberal candidate Marjorie Michel, who took over and easily won his long-held Papineau riding in Montreal, which also made it to his Instagram.

His only other post was an image of himself and Pope Francis following the late Pontiff’s passing in April.

On X, he shared posts urging Canadians to vote, but didn’t directly endorse Carney or the Liberals until election day.

As for the young Trudeau, he launched his R&B career earlier this year with a debut track and video titled

Til the Nights Done in February

and dropped a second,

Everything I Know

, in mid-March. It’s not clear which of those two the older Trudeau has not watched.

Back Me Up is being released Friday, May 2.

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A truck carrying vehicles prepares to cross into the U.S. from Canada at the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., on March 8, 2025.

Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) is predicting a “modest recession” for the province this year if U.S. tariffs remains in place.

The report from the FAO

released this week analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs including those on steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs. It suggests that if these tariffs remain in place, Ontario’s real GDP growth would slow to 0.6 per cent in 2025, less than half the 1.7 per cent growth expected in the absence of U.S. tariffs.

“This implies that a modest recession would occur in 2025,” the report states. “In 2026, Ontario’s real GDP growth would be 1.2 per cent, compared to 1.9 per cent growth in a no tariff outlook.”

What is a ‘modest recession’?

FAO’s Chief Economist and Deputy Financial Accountability Officer, Paul Lewis, told National Post there’s no agreed-upon definition for a “modest recession”; it’s a matter of comparing one recession with another.

That said, a recession is defied as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, so a modest recession would fit that category as well.

Has Ontario seen a recession before?

Lewis said that, leaving out the extreme situation that was the pandemic, Ontario has seen five recessions in recent history. Two of them, in 1992 and 2003, could be deemed modest, with two quarters of roughly 0.8 per cent decline. The other three, in 1982, 1990 and 2008, were deeper and lasted longer, with declines of between five and six per cent.

Does an Ontario recession mean a Canadian recession?

Not necessarily, although there is usually overlap because Ontario’s economy represents almost 40 per cent of Canada’s. So anything that drags down the economy in that province is going to affect the country as a whole. Ontario’s 2003 modest recession

was not shared by the country

, which saw only one quarter of negative growth.

How is it a recession if the FAO still predicts 0.6 per cent growth?

“The economy ended the year 2024 with some pretty good momentum,” Lewis said. “So to get to that annual number that we have in our report of 0.6 per cent, you’d have to have some declines through the course of the year if you’re looking at the quarterly data.”

Why are tariffs such a big drain on the economy?

According to the FAO report, the U.S. is Ontario’s biggest trading partner. “In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 77 per cent of the province’s international goods exports and 60 per cent of its services exports.”

It adds: “An estimated 933,000 Ontarians worked in U.S. export-related jobs in 2024, about one in every nine jobs in the province, with 536,000 of these jobs in the goods sector. Ontario’s manufacturing sector is particularly reliant on U.S. trade, with 40 per cent of its production exported to the U.S.”

If the tariffs went away, would the risk of recession vanish as well?

Possibly, although Lewis noted that even the risk of tariffs can be harmful.

“As soon as you start to announce these kinds of things you create uncertainty,” he said. “Uncertainty by itself causes growth to slow somewhat. Companies aren’t sure so they put investment plans and hiring plans on hold for a while, just until they can sense what the lay of the land is.”

But: “If he (Donald Trump) woke up and said no, there’s no tariffs, we wouldn’t go into a recession.”

What has been the provincial government’s response to the report?

Asked to comment on the report, Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy

told reporters on Wednesday

: “I don’t know, I’m not going to speculate on that. But I will tell you we are going to protect jobs, we are going to protect this economy.”

“I’m going to disagree with that — let’s see what happens,” Premier Doug Ford said, adding: “I’m confident, I really am. I always look at the glass as half-full and no one can predict the future, but I’m predicting that we’re going to do better than other jurisdictions around the world and in North America.”

Is there anything consumers can do?

A report from the University of Toronto’s

Rotman School of Management

suggests that, to prepare for a recession, consumers should reduce spending, particularly on non-essential items; pay off any credit card debt; pay bills on time; be ready to hunt for a new job; and try to move to a recession-proof job. Or to put it more concisely: “Plan for the worst, hope for the best.”

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    Stornoway, the official residence of the leader of the opposition.

    Stornoway is the official residence of the leader of the Opposition, located in

    Ottawa’s Rockcliffe Park neighbourhood

    .

    After the results of the federal election on Monday night, it’s unclear who its next residents may be — as Conservative leader Pierre

    Poilievre lost his seat

    to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Without a seat in the House of Commons, Poilievre cannot maintain his status as the official leader of the Opposition.

    He may have to move out of Stornoway

    , which is reserved for the Opposition leader, per the

    Official Residences Act

    .

    Meet Bruce Fanjoy, the man who won Pierre Poilievre’s riding

    “Stornoway reflects both the changing nature and the continuity of tradition in Rockcliffe Park: it dates from the first major pre-First World War building push in Rockcliffe; it was expanded in the 1920s when many of the village’s finest houses were built; and it became an official Government residence when other large Rockcliffe Park houses were being purchased as official residences for foreign diplomats,” according to Parks Canada.

    Here’s what to know about the historic residence.

    When was Stornoway built?

    The house was built in 1913 by grocer Ascanio Joseph Major, according to the

    National Capital Commission (NCC)

    . It was one of the first large, permanent residences in the area,

    per Parks Canada

    . Major hired architect Alan Keefer to design the home.

     Stornoway – 541 Acacia Ave, in Ottawa.

    It was purchased by the prominent Perley-Robertson family in 1923. The family added to the house over the next few years. They also gave the home its name, Stornoway, in memory of Mrs. Perley-Roberston’s grandmother, who came from Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland, according to Parks Canada.

    Was Stornoway ever home to royalty?

    Yes. During the Second World War, when Germany invaded the Netherlands in May 1940, Crown Princess Juliana and her family rented Stornoway after escaping to England, and then to Canada.

    The princess, who was Queen Wilhelmina’s heir, and her family first stayed at Rideau Hall, then at a house in Rockcliffe. The Perley-Robertsons then offered up their own home to the royals. They rented it from 1942 until they returned to the Netherlands in 1945, per Parks Canada.

    How did Stornoway become a home for the leader of the Opposition?

    According to the NCC, Senator Gratan O’Leary was campaigning to find a home for the leader of the Opposition in 1946. It was around the same time that the federal government was getting 24 Sussex Drive ready to be the official residence of the prime minister, per Parks Canada.

    Inside Canada’s rotting official residences where six properties need $175M in repairs

    “A trust was set up to purchase Stornoway and administer the running of the house,” Parks Canada said. “By 1969 the trust, funded by contributions from the public, found it increasingly difficult to maintain the house appropriately.”

    It was purchased by the Government of Canada on Jan. 1, 1970. The NCC has managed the property since 1988.

    Which politicians have lived at Stornoway?

    In 1950, former Ontario premier and Conservative leader George Drew was the first leader of the Opposition to stay in the home, along with his wife, Fiorenza Johnson. Next were Lester and Marion Pearson, in 1958.

    Stornoway has also been home to John G. Diefenbaker, Robert L. Stanfield, C. Joseph Clark, Pierre Trudeau and John Turner.

     Photo of Stornoway, the historical residence of the federal leader of the opposition.

    More recently, Stornoway was

    home to Andrew Scheer

    , Erin O’Toole,

    Candice Bergen

    , and then Poilievre.

    Are there any Opposition leaders who did not stay at Stornoway?

    Yes. In 2011, NDP leader Jack Layton only stayed in the residence for one night, according to an archived

    iPolitics article

    . Layton later opted to spend

    most of his time in Toronto

    to receive medical care for cancer. He died later that year.

    Previously, Bloc Quebecois leader Lucien Bouchard refused to live there in 1993, according to iPolitics.

    What features does Stornoway have?

    “Stornoway was designed as a two and one half storey wooden house sheathed in stucco,” Parks Canada explains. “All detailing was of the simplest nature, with bracketed wooden window shades above the ground floor windows on the front facade. The most evident decorative elements were a small pediment above the entrance door, flanked by narrow vertical windows; and a tall round headed window to the right of the main entrance emphasized by a small wrought iron rail.”

    It continued: “In 1923, Keefer designed a projecting two storey wing at the north-western corner of the house. The stable on the grounds was converted to a three-car garage and a second floor added above it. The house was virtually unaltered from 1923 until 1978 when the porte cochère was removed.”

    A square porch was added in 1983, which “incorporates a cornice, pilasters and a rectangular transom and sidelights evocative of those which surrounded the original entrance, yet gives the house a more traditional appearance.”

    Stornoway is recognized by the Federal Heritage Buildings Review Office as a federal heritage building.

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    Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to journalists during an availability in Mississauga, Ont., on Wednesday April 30, 2025.

    Ontario Premier Doug Ford clearly doesn’t like federal Conservatives, but did he really sabotage their campaign in the province, as one re-elected Ontario MP recently suggested? Not likely, if you stick to the facts.

    The unseemly infighting between the leaderships of Ontario Progressive Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives boiled over this week, to the credit of neither. Ontario Conservative MP Jamil Jivani

    took quite a run at Ford

    after the federal party’s election loss Monday. “

    When it was our turn to run an election, h

    e couldn’t stay out of our business, always getting his criticisms and all his opinions out, distracting our campaign, trying to make it about him, trying to position himself as some kind of political genius that we needed to be taking cues from,” Jivani said. He added that Ford was a “hype man” for the federal Liberals.

    On Wednesday, Ford couldn’t resist

    rising to the bait

    , telling reporters “Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our (recent provincial) election. (As a) matter of fact, him, or one of his lieutenants, told every one of his members, ‘Don’t you dare go out and help the (Progressive Conservatives)’. Isn’t that ironic?”

    A reasonable person might make a distinction between not helping and actively, publicly criticizing, and Ford did indulge himself in some sniping at the federal party during the recent national election. So did Ford’s adviser, Kory Teneycke. But if that was sabotage, it was highly ineffective.

    Under Poilievre, the Conservatives gained seats in Ontario and the Liberals lost them in sufficient numbers to prevent their leader Mark Carney from winning a majority. Poilievre even collected a higher percentage of the popular vote than did Ford himself just months ago.

    Ontario is where the Conservatives held back a seemingly unstoppable Liberal tide, confounding pollsters’ predictions of a dismal result in the province. The poll aggregator 338Canada.com projected 82 seats for the Liberals in Ontario, and just 37 for the Conservatives.

    In the end, Poilievre took 53 seats, up from 37 in 2021. The Liberals got 69, down from 78 before. The Conservatives had 43.8 per cent of the vote, just ahead of Ford’s 42.97 per cent in the provincial vote. If an incumbent like Ford running against two weak opponents could only get about 43 per cent provincially, that suggests it’s the ceiling for conservative politicians in Ontario.

    The bad blood between federal Conservatives and PCs in Ontario certainly predates Ford and Poilievre. When I was a provincial PC candidate more than a decade ago, federal party types made it abundantly clear that they were the pros and the provincial PCs were inept losers. It seems like not much has changed. But it should.

    Ford is willing to work with federal Liberals when it furthers his political interests. He shouldn’t have let his disdain for Poilievre prevent him from doing the same with Conservatives.

    During the campaign, Poilievre took a tough-on-crime approach. Ford didn’t speak up to support him. Now that the election is over, Ford spent this week laying our new additions to his crime policy, one that is in sync with and arguably more severe than anything Poilievre advocated for. Couldn’t the two have worked together on that issue, at least? The Liberals will never give Ford what he wants on crime.

    On Wednesday, Ford went on a

    remarkable, self-described “rant”

    about “bleeding heart” judges who make decisions based on ideology — an ideology different from his own. The premier was annoyed that unelected judges would have any right to say no to his elected government on tougher crime policies, because “the people are supreme.”

    The solution, he suggested, was direct election of judges just like they do in the U.S. That would let the public hold them accountable.

    If Poilievre had said the same things, his opponents would have immediately condemned his statements as “just like Donald Trump,” and with some justification. The U.S. president is all right with the courts, as long as they rule in his favour and do what he says. We don’t need that here.

    Attempting to lighten the mood, Ford’s attorney general, Doug Downey, said, “You should see what he says in private.” That might not have helped as much as he intended

    If conservatives want future political success, their federal and provincial leaders will need to grasp the fact that they have more in common with each other than they do with the Liberals. At both levels, conservatives face a common threat. The collapse of the NDP in this federal election has fundamentally changed federal politics.

    If there aren’t two viable parties splitting the left-wing vote, Conservatives will face Liberal win after Liberal win. The problem is starkly apparent federally, but it’s happening provincially, too. In this year’s Ontario election, the provincial NDP support dropped to 18.5 per cent while the Liberals rose to 30 per cent. If the Ontario NDP continues to crumble, Ford or his successor will have a big problem.

    It’s time for conservative politicians to wake up and work together.

    National Post

    randalldenley1@gmail.com

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    Commercial fishermen allege a large lobster fishery outside the commercial season has been pursued from the Saulnierville wharf in Nova Scotia. AARON BESWICK / POSTMEDIA

    Aaron Beswick has been reporting on Atlantic Canada’s fishing industry for 20 years, the last 13 of which have been in Nova Scotia for The Chronicle Herald, a Postmedia publication. He was named 2024 Journalist of the Year by the National Newspaper Awards for this coverage.

    In the chill dark of a March night on a Nova Scotia river, a hip-wader-wearing woman put Canda’s sovereignty to the test.

    Or rather, the 40 or so net-wielding members of Sipekne’katik First Nation on the opposite bank were calling Canada’s bluff.

    They caught juvenile American eels (elvers) under their own band-issued licenses in defiance of a Fisheries Act requiring them to have licenses approved by the federal fisheries minister.

    “I think it was the fourth call to DFO I asked their dispatch if they could say whether any officers were on duty,” said Suzy Edwards, a commercial elver harvester.

    “They wouldn’t. We flagged down a passing RCMP officer and he said they’d been told to stand down on elver-related matters.”

    The issue at hand is larger than the tiny translucent juvenile American eels being dumped into buckets that night.

    It’s whether the federal government will enforce its own laws when challenged by First Nations claiming a sovereignty that goes well beyond that acknowledged by the Supreme Court of Canada.

    The lucrative East Coast fishery — lobster is Canada’s most valuable seafood export — has been made a testing ground for federal government reconciliation policies.

    More than a billion dollars has been spent in a wholesale transfer of access from traditional fishing communities to East Coast First Nations.

    And yet, somehow, individual band members often have no ability to fish within Canada’s laws. When they fish outside of those laws, enforcement ranges from inconsistent to nonexistent.

    Organized crime and unscrupulous foreign buyers profiting off the consequent black market export trade have been terrorizing both commercial and First Nation fishing communities through shootings, arson and other forms of violence.

    It has rived the federal department of fisheries itself — frontline officers across the region refused to do enforcement patrols for over two months last year. In refusal to do unsafe work letters submitted under the Canada Labour Code, the officers claimed they’ve been subjected to assaults by armed unlicensed harvesters, their families have been threatened and that there’s been no support for enforcement from top brass or a series of federal fisheries ministers.

    The elvers are first.

    They’re a harbinger of spring and a series of seasonal fisheries that over the coming months will fill Nova Scotian harbours with life and industry. And of communities

    pitted against one another

    over a shared resource by a federal government that refuses to govern.

    The greatest victim may be the American eels.

    Nobody knows how many times greater than Canada’s 9,860 kilogram total allowable catch have been pulled from rivers and flown under the noses of

    multiple federal agencies

    for seed stock in Chinese aquaculture facilities.

    But according to Hong Kong import data, almost four times our quota for the species — listed as threatened by the Committe on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada — arrived in 2023 labelled “product of Canada.”

    On March 30, Suzy Edwards stood in the dark on a rock in a river and called on her federal government.

    No one came.

    Another river

    On April 15, Hilary Maloney-Nevin was asserting Sipekne’katik First Nation sovereignty on the Tangier River. She was one of dozens of fishers who travel the hundred kilometres each evening from their home community to this non-Aboriginal eastern shore fishing village.

    They line the banks of the Tangier River where it meets the Atlantic Ocean armed with dip nets and long cylindrical fyke nets.

    “We’re proving to Canada we can self-govern our own people in the hopes that one day my child can fish without being harassed,” said Maloney-Nevin.

    As the sun sets, the elvers are carried into the river on the rising tide.

    They’ve had a long journey.

    American eels are bewilderingly unique. They lurk among the tall grasses along the headwaters of rivers from the Caribbean up to Labrador. These mucus-covered water snakes grow to over a metre long.

    Anywhere between the age of 10 and 30, something in the recesses of their genetic code speaks up. It drives them down to the Atlantic’s cold salt and then on to the calm warm gyre of the Sargasso Sea near the equator. Here they breed and die. Their hatched larvae grow as they are carried by ocean currents to waiting river mouths each spring to close the circle.

    From time out of mind, the adults were on the menu of the Mi’kmaq, Wolastoqiyik and Peskotomuhkatikuk tribes of eastern North America.

    “You’d need a calm night and the water had to be clear,” Mi’kmaq elder Kerry Prosper told Postmedia of fishing adult eels in the springs of his youth. “The eel would wrap itself around your spear and you’d haul it aboard.”

    In winter, he’d go to the ice of Nova Scotia’s Antigonish Harbour and cut holes through which he’d work his trident-like spear in growing concentric circles, searching for the eels that had burrowed into the fertile sediment.

    “When our people got older and lost their appetite, they would crave eel stew,” said Prosper, who always keeps some eel in his freezer for those in his community who may need it.

    “We would make that food for them. It brings them back to a warm place with a lot of memories. It brings them back to a time when they enjoyed life.”

    Prosper saw Donald Marshall Jr. returning to that place after serving 11 years in prison for a murder he didn’t commit.

    The last thing Marshall wanted, explained Prosper, was to be back before the courts and media. He just wanted to fish and make a bit of money to survive.

    In 1993, Marshall, a Mi’kmaq man whose father had been Grand Chief of the Mi’kmaq Nation, set a net in Pomquet Harbour, near Paq’tnkek.

    He caught some eels and sold them.

    His arrest kicked off a legal odyssey that would lead to the Supreme Court of Canada’s Marshall decisions, the coining of the term “moderate livelihood” and 26 years (and counting) of battles over what that means.

    R vs. Marshall is at the heart of it all.

    So, what has the Supreme Court of Canada said about Hilary Maloney-Nevin’s right to make a living off the fisheries? What role does the federal government have in managing and limiting that right?

    Do Suzy Edwards and members of non-Aboriginal communities, who have long relied on the same resources, have their own claim?

    And even if the courts give the federal government sovereignty over Atlantic Canada’s waters, does it have the will to enforce it?

    Maloney-Nevin was recently approached by a federal fisheries officer while fishing eels under a license issued by her band but not by DFO. She handed him a letter to Mark Carney.

    “Mr. Prime Minister, we ask that your fisheries officers from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans refrain from hindering and obstructing, taking of gear and equipment of the Mi’kmaq fishers of Sipekne’katik and respect our right to govern ourselves,” reads the letter.

    “We also ask your fisheries officers and RCMP to uphold the rule of law and ensure the safety and protection of our fishers in carrying out our nation to nation based Aboriginal Treaty rights.”

    He walked away.

    What the treaties say

    To understand

    R vs. Marshall

    , we have to walk back to the 18th century.

    England was grasping for a foothold in the New World as it sought to pry what would become Atlantic Canada from the Mi’kmaq and their French allies. In 1726, the British signed a treaty with the Mi’kmaq to promote peace and harmony.

    When the British founded Halifax in 1749, the Mi’kmaq viewed the settlement as a violation of that treaty and an infringement of their land.

    A series of raids on what would become Dartmouth followed, culminating in a 1751 combined Mi’kmaq and Acadian attack that burned the town and killed 20 civilians.

    Then-governor Edward Cornwallis responded by putting a bounty of 10 guineas on the heads of Mi’kmaq males — the same price the French at Fortress Louisbourg (in modern-day Cape Breton) had been paying the Mi’kmaq for English scalps.

    The war was going badly for the English.

    So, they tried cutting deals. They convinced Jean-Baptiste Cope, chief of a community of Mi’kmaq living along the banks of the Shubenacadie River, to sign a treaty in exchange for supplies.

    “It is agreed that the said Tribe of Indians shall not be hindered from, but have free liberty of Hunting & Fishing as usual,” reads the Treaty of 1752, signed with Cope.

    “… And that if they shall think a Truckhouse needful at the River Chibenaccadie or any other place of their resort, they shall have the same built and proper Merchandize lodged therein, to be Exchanged for what the Indians shall have to dispose of, and that in the mean time the said Indians shall have free liberty to bring for Sale to Halifax or any other Settlement within this Province, Skins, feathers, fowl, fish or any other thing they shall have to sell, where they shall have liberty to dispose thereof to the best Advantage.”

    Of the three 18th-century Peace and Friendship treaties between a series of English governors and Mi’kmaq Chiefs, the Treaty of 1752 is most clear in its acknowledgment of the latter’s commercial right to catch and sell what they want.

    That’s why it was initially relied upon by Donald Marshall Jr.’s lawyers, who claimed that as a grand chief, Cope signed the treaty of 1752 on behalf of all Mi’kmaq.

    But by the time R vs. Marshall had made it to the Supreme Court of Canada, Marshall’s lawyers had dropped the Treaty of 1752.

    That’s because, according to British documents from the time, a year after the signing of the Treaty of 1752, Cope’s son, Joseph Cope, arrived in Halifax, and informed the governor that his father had failed to convince chiefs in Cape Breton and Chignecto to sign-on.

    Joseph Cope asked that a boat be sent to pick up the band’s provisions, according to British reports, supposedly so that they could settle near Halifax under the King’s protection. Though sent, the sloop never returned. The only member of the crew to make it home was the Acadian translator, Anthony Casteel.

    In a deposition he gave upon returning to Halifax in July 1753, Casteel said the vessel had been captured and the crew killed by Mi’kmaq. His life was spared because he was Acadian (the Acadians were allied with the Mi’kmaq, though some of them worked against their own people for the British) and that while a prisoner of Cope’s in Shubenacadie, he saw the treaty burned.

    Hostilities resumed, with the British and New England militias trading reprisals with the Acadians and Mi’kmaq. In 1756, the British governor formally renounced the Treaty of 1752.

    So, when the case made it to the Supreme Court of Canada, Marshall’s lawyers switched to rely upon the much less clear treaty of 1760-61, which the British had signed with Paul Laurent, chief of a Mi’kmaq community in LaHave. The only reference to trade in this later treaty reads:

    “I do further engage that we will not traffic, barter or Exchange any Commodities in any manner but with such persons or the managers of such Truck houses as shall be appointed or Established by His Majesty’s Governor at Lunenbourg or Elsewhere in Nova Scotia or Accadia.”

    In the 1999 Marshall decision and subsequent clarification known as Marshall II, the Supreme Court of Canada interpreted this to mean that the Mi’kmaq, Wolastoqiyik and Peskotomuhkatikuk have a right to make a “moderate livelihood” off traditionally harvested resources.

    Donald Marshall Jr. was acquitted.

    It didn’t define what a moderate livelihood is, leaving that to fisheries ministers to negotiate with First Nations chiefs.

    But it was clear on sovereignty — that while First Nations have a right to be consulted on regulations affecting them, the buck stops with the federal fisheries minister.

    And she has the authority to limit the moderate livelihood right.

    “The paramount regulatory objective is conservation and responsibility for it is placed squarely on the minister responsible and not on the aboriginal or non-Aboriginal users of the resource,” reads the preamble to Marshall II.

    “The regulatory authority extends to other compelling and substantial public objectives which may include economic and regional fairness, and recognition of the historical reliance upon, and participation in, the fishery by non-Aboriginal groups. Aboriginal people are entitled to be consulted about limitations on the exercise of treaty and aboriginal rights.”

    The court directed the federal government to draft a regulatory regime that would allow First Nations to pursue their rights, consult in good faith with First Nations governments and, ultimately, implement it.

    That hasn’t happened.

    Cutting deals

    Instead, the federal government has bought up commercial licenses and transferred them to First Nations along with vessels, gear, training and funding through a series of ad hoc agreements that state they are “without prejudice” to the moderate livelihood right.

    Copies of the Marshall Response Initiative deals under which $630 million was spent obtained by Postmedia state that in exchange, First Nations agreed not to pursue their moderate livelihood fisheries for five years — pushing the matter past another election cycle, time and again.

    Over the past seven years, the rate of transfer has dramatically increased, with at least another $755.5 million spent between 1999 and December 2024.

    As of December, 2,217 commercial fishing licenses had been transferred to Atlantic Canada’s First Nations.

    Beyond those licenses, seven Mi’kmaq First Nations bought Clearwater Seafoods’ vast commercial license holdings in 2020, in a billion-dollar deal with Premium Foods of B.C.

    In 2024, DFO announced it was taking

    50 per cent of the elver quota

    from commercial license holders without compensation and transferring it to First Nations. Including a commercial license held by Cape Breton’s We’koma’Q, aboriginal governments now hold 62 per cent of Canada’s total allowable elver catch.

    And yet, many First Nations members still don’t have the opportunity to fish.

    While some First Nations, such as Pictou Landing, operate their own fleets and employ their band members fishing their quotas, many lease the licenses to non-Aboriginal commercial fishermen.

    There have been interim understandings reached between the federal government and a handful of First Nations that have allowed small-scale moderate livelihood fisheries, but no such fishery agreement has been formally agreed upon between Sipekne’katik and DFO.

    “(The Supreme Court of Canada’s clarification known as) Marshall II is the court beating the government over the head with the equivalent of a legal baseball bat, saying they can govern and they can govern fairly,” said Thomas Isaac, an aboriginal rights lawyer who has served as British Columbia’s chief treaty negotiator, assistant deputy minister responsible for establishing Nunavut and special representative to the minister of Indigenous and northern affairs.

    “And that includes looking out for the interests of broader Canadian society, which, by the way, also includes aboriginal interests. Aboriginal interests make up public interests as well.”

    Isaac contends the Supreme Court has repeatedly given the federal government a tool it refuses to use: Justifiable infringement. That means the federal government can infringe upon the right, after fair consultation, for “compelling and substantive public policy objectives.”

    But to do that, the federal government would have to be willing to state what the right isn’t.

    “My message to governments of all parties is you can run from this, but you can’t hide,” said Isaac. “Eventually, government will have to come to grips with the tool kits they have.”

    Instead, in December, the federal government offered the Assembly of Nova Scotia Mi’kmaq Chiefs $259.4 million. Unlike previous initiatives where the federal government bought up licenses, this funding would go directly to chiefs and councils to do the buying.

    The Assembly refused the offer.

    “This proposal raises serious alarms,” said Chief Wilbert Marshall, assembly co-lead on fisheries, in press release.

    “DFO’s approach reminded us of earlier initiatives from the 2000s, which failed to respect and uphold our inherent rights. Our treaty right to fish is not a commercial fishery.”

    The position of First Nations is all that access that has been removed from rural fishing communities and transferred to them doesn’t count toward the Marshall right.

    According to the Marshall Response Initiative agreements seen by Postmedia, they’re right — the agreements state the access was transferred “without prejudice” to the moderate livelihood right.

    What constitutes a moderate livelihood, along with how and when those fisheries operate, remains to be resolved.

    The federal government has refused to share with Postmedia the wording in the agreements under which it’s been transferring access lately. They contend their negotiations are considered “nation to nation” and so groups representing commercial fishing communities that have seen the wealth of access to adjacent resources transferred out don’t get a say.

    At a December Nova Scotia Supreme Court hearing on Sipekne’katik and the federal government’s confidential fisheries negotiations, Justice John Keith asked the feds’ lawyer, “I’m probably stating the obvious, but in these negotiations, the Crown represents the interests of those non-Indigenous peoples as well, correct? Is that wrong?”

    To which that lawyer, Gwen MacIsaac, responded, “I think it would be an overstatement to say that the Crown represents the interests of non-Indigenous groups.”

    Sovereign nations

    Jennifer Ford, a senior adviser for the DFO, shouldn’t have been surprised by the letter she got in March from the Chiefs of Sipekne’katik, Millbrook and Membertou First Nations.

    Dated March 5,

    the letter to the elver review director

    stated that the federal government has no authority over their fishers and it could pose no limits on how much they fished, as they considered the American eel stock to be healthy. The chiefs claimed all of Nova Scotia as part of their sovereign territory and that they would prevent any fisheries officers from coming on their reserves to search holding facilities.

    “We the Mi’kmaq of Millbrook have our own management plan that we have authorized under our Treaties and the authority of Mi’kmaw Law,” reads a copy of the letter signed by Millbrook Chief Bob Gloade and obtained by Postmedia.

    “We are not regulated by your colonial commercial licensing schemes, nor do we accept your proposed management plan.”

    The letter, which cited a series of Supreme Court of Canada decisions including R vs. Marshall and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) that Canada signed in 2020, went on to say that this position extends to all fisheries — including Nova Scotia’s billion-dollar lobster fishery.

    It was the reaffirmation of a long-held position by the three First Nations.

    Sipekne’katik has been openly running a large-scale commercial lobster fishery from the federal government wharf in Saulnierville, N.S., on the fertile nursery of St. Mary’s Bay, each summer for the past five years.

    That’s despite the commercial season not opening there until November.

    What was surprising

    was the response to that letter

    by Ford’s boss.

    Also obtained by Postmedia, DFO Maritimes region director general Doug Wentzell rejected the chief’s interpretation of the Supreme Court decisions, claimed the federal government did have the authority to manage their fisheries and noted that interference with a fishery officer is a criminal offence.

    “The courts have repeatedly upheld the Crown’s role in regulating the fishery, as well as the use of licensing as part of fisheries management, even when regulating the exercise of Aboriginal or Treaty rights,” reads Wentzell’s response, dated March 18.

    “Your letter suggests that fishery officers acting in the course of their duties require permission to enter Sipekne’katik reserve lands. While the Department would always prefer to have fishery officers welcomed into your community, and is willing to establish mutually agreeable protocols where it is appropriate, if entry into reserve lands is necessary for fishery officers to exercise their legal duties and functions, they will do so in accordance with applicable laws and, again, with that overarching objective of fostering a safe, orderly and well-managed fishery for all.”

    It was an explicit assertion of the sovereignty of the federal government over the management of all fisheries in Canadian waters.

    And it came from Wentzell, who, according to Sipekne’katik’s lawyer Ron Pink, actually helped co-ordinate the First Nation’s unlicensed commercial fishery last summer on St. Mary’s Bay.

    Pink told Nova Scotia Supreme Court Justice John Keith during a

    Dec. 14 hearing

    into the progress of confidential negotiations between the band and DFO that Wentzell had been in weekly contact with Sipekne’katik to co-ordinate their moderate livelihood fishery — a fishery that was illegal, as it was being pursued without DFO-issued licenses outside of the local commercial season.

    That co-ordination occurred as the RCMP were attributing organized crime involved in the movement of its illegal lobster to a rash of arsons and shootings in Southwest Nova Scotia.

    “We believe they are profiting from this fishing activity that is going on,” Meteghan RCMP Staff-Sgt. Jeff LeBlanc

    told Postmedia

    in September.

    “We have information to confirm that. With any organized crime group, they will seek any way they can to make funds, be it illegal means or elsewhere. If it’s drugs, or it’s illegal fish, anything they can get into.”

    In the year leading up to LeBlanc’s comments, there had been shots fired into three homes, arsons involving five buildings and four vehicles, including an RCMP cruiser burned in Meteghan, and a loader had been used to destroy the camp of a commercial fisherman who had spoken out about illegal fishing.

    While DFO brass was apparently co-ordinating the unlicensed fishery, its frontline fisheries officers were off the job.

    Officers across the Maritimes submitted refusal-to-work letters under the Canada Labour Code in August, citing a

    lack of support

    from DFO brass and Diane Lebouthillier, then minister of fisheries, oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard.

    “These have included physical acts of violence against officers,” reads a copy of one of the letters obtained by Postmedia that listed what fishery officers faced from unlicensed harvesters.

    “Attempted assaults using vehicles and vessels. Harvesters attempting to disarm fishery officers from their side-arms. Utterances of violence and death threats towards officers and their families.”

    The Nova Scotia Legislature passed a bipartisan motion last fall calling on the federal government to enforce the Fisheries Act, crack down on the illegal harvesters and support its own fishery officers.

    Five days before Mark Carney announced a federal election in March, DFO’s regional director general wrote to the three chiefs, saying in a letter that was leaked to Postmedia that the federal government would enforce the Fisheries Act.

    Despite Wentzell’s strongly worded letter, Sipekne’katik, Millbrook and Membertou went ahead and launched their self-regulated elver fisheries.

    The dozens of First Nations members fishing by Highway 7 in Tangier each night in mid-April carried licenses issued by their bands.

    The federal government hasn’t intervened.

    Market in China

    Nova Scotians don’t eat elvers.

    And First Nations all have food, social and ceremonial licenses for their community members to catch lobster to eat.

    There would be no large illegal fisheries without a market.

    As tens of thousands of pounds of lobster were coming over the Saulnierville wharf last summer without DFO intervention, commercial fishermen hired two retired Mounties to follow it.

    “I don’t think there’s any better evidence for how desperate the situation has become in southwest Nova Scotia and how clearly the government have turned their backs on the fishing community than that we’ve been forced to take this action ourselves,” Colin Sproul, president of the United Fisheries Conversation Alliance, which hired the investigators, told Postmedia in November.

    “… What should outrage all Maritimers today is the fact that within a very short period of time, we could gather enough evidence to move forward with a lawsuit, but the federal and provincial governments have not been willing or able to in years.”

    The $10-million suit, filed in Nova Scotia Supreme Court, alleges that the lobster caught at Saulnierville heads “by various means” to Independent Fisheries Ltd. in Sable River, N.S., from where it is exported.

    Independent’s president,

    Xaoming Mao

    , is listed among the suit’s defendants, along with Sea Well Holdings Ltd., Jason Lamrock, Tyler Nickerson, Sandra Nickerson, Shawna Nickerson, David Nickerson and Wesley Nickerson.

    No defence has been filed in the case and the allegations have not been tested in court, but the suit is still in the works.

    The growth of the illegal seafood trade has coincided with large investments from China in Nova Scotia’s fish processing industry over the past decade.

    Ten years ago, the He family, which owns seafood operations in China, made the first large investment, buying a fish plant in Newellton and rebranding it Atlantic Chican.

    Xaoming Mao, who goes by Mark Mao, was tasked with running it.

    Atlantic Chican quickly ran afoul of the law — it paid a $75,000 fine after fisheries officers found egg-bearing females (which are illegal to catch) at its facilities in 2017 and 2019.

    The company also later pleaded guilty to importing 63,000 kilograms of Maine lobster and exporting it to China labelled as Canadian product to skirt Chinese tariffs on American seafood.

    “(Illegally harvested elvers) are going from a company owned by a Mr. Mao, who exports this under a (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) banner,” then South Shore—St. Margarets MP Rick Perkins told the Standing Committee on Fisheries and Oceans in February 2024, where he was protected from libel suits by parliamentary privilege.

    “His brother-in-law is the manager of (Atlantic) Chican in my riding, which is owned by a Mr. He in China, who’s in jail in China for breaking Chinese law on importing illegal seafood. This is the money behind this operation.”

    Postmedia has been unable to independently confirm the allegations made by Perkins.

    Mao was fired from Atlantic Chican, according to court documents filed by the company in response to its charges. But he quickly reappeared — buying Independent Seafoods in 2020.

    Mao started buying up other plants in Nova Scotia — provincial business records show him becoming director in 2023 of B.M.C. Seafoods, which owns a large plant in Meteghan, and president of Ocean Edge Seafoods, which owns a plant in Salmon River, last April.

    Last May, one of Mao’s numbered companies became a co-owner of Lobster Boys LLC, which owns a plant in Dipper Harbour, N.B., through a bankruptcy sale.

    Mao has not responded to multiple requests for comment by Postmedia.

    As the commercial lobster season was about to open last November, Postmedia ran a story about Mao’s varied companies and the accusations in the UFCA lawsuit.

    That day, commercial fishing harvesters began notifying companies named in the story that they were switching buyers.

    That night, one of the buyers they were switching to

    had shots fired through his house

    .

    Geoffrey Jobert, owner of Lobster Hub Inc. in Meteghan, found holes through his garage door, kitchen, dining room and living room walls with a round lodged in his hardwood rocking chair.

    In an interview with Postmedia, Jobert said he’d been threatened before by a local crime family involved in the movement of illegal lobster when fishermen switched to him from Mao’s company, B. M. C Seafood.

    “I said, ‘No, we’re not going to be intimidated,’” said Jobert. “… Other fishermen started selling to us because they didn’t want to sell to a business connected with the illegal fishery. We were sent videos of my home at night. I tried to not pay attention.”

    No one has been charged with firing the shot through Jobert’s home.

    “Nothing to do with me,” Cedric Boudreau, a director of B. M. C Seafoods, told Postmedia after the shooting, before hanging up the phone.

    Poachers and traceability

    Since January, Pat Keliher has been spending more time with his dogs.

    “Not chasing elver poachers around anymore,” said Keliher, freshly retired from his position as commissioner of the Maine Department of Natural Resources.

    But he hadn’t been doing much chasing of poachers for a while.

    “I had 50 uniformed officers and they used to joke that I took all their fun away, that they liked when it was a Wild West and they were always tracking people down,” said Keliher.

    With populations of Japanese and European eels severely depleted by habitat destruction and overfishing, China turned to the American eel for seedstock for its aquaculture facilities, sending the price for the elvers through the roof starting around 2010.

    Poaching in Maine took off at the same time and Keliher, a longtime hunting and fishing guide, was brought in by the governor to get it under control.

    They implemented a tight traceability system with each harvester carrying a swipe card associated with their quota — from the river to the buyer to export, the eels are weighed and weighed again.

    When an exporter is ready to ship, two of Keliher’s officers would visit the holding facility, weigh the catch, verify its journey back to the rivers and seal it.

    “Two strikes, you’re out,” said Keliher. “If you’re a license holder who gets caught in violation, you go through the process, catch is seized, there’s a fine, you lose your license for three to six years. Second time, it’s a permanent revocation of the license. If you’ve got no license at all, you’re taken directly to jail.”

    Maine’s Legislature negotiated with the state’s four federally recognized aboriginal bands, which saw them get 22 per cent of the total allowable catch. Their designated fish harvesters are subject to the same laws and enforcement as everyone else.

    It worked. From almost 300 violations a season during the early 2010s, Maine is down to “only a handful with hardly anyone fishing without a license.”

    Last spring, citing violence, widespread poaching and dangers to her own officers, Canada’s federal fisheries minister didn’t open Canada’s elver season at all.

    But according to Hong Kong Board of Trade Import Data, 7,892 kilograms of elvers were imported from Canada, labelled as product of Canada, last spring.

    That’s nearly what Canada’s 9,860-kilogram total allowable catch would have been had there been a legal fishery here.

    For this season, DFO has implemented a new traceability system based in part on Maine’s, that requires licenses for buyers and exporters, with assigned rivers for First Nations and commercial harvesters.

    While 10 of Nova Scotia’s First Nations have signed on, Sipekne’katik, Millbrook and Membertou have not.

    And their elvers are getting out of the country, somehow, under the noses of DFO, the Canada Border Services Agency and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

    “Government has this absurd idea that, ‘We don’t want to interfere with unauthorized fishers too much at the river,’” said Mitchell Feigenbaulm, president of commercial elver quota holder South Shore Trading Co.

    “But that’s where the fish are all in one place. Fifty kilos taken off a river tonight can be in 10 suitcases, travel domestically by vehicle and plane, and be in 10 different places tomorrow. These are well-organized enterprises devoted 365 days a year that have the time and patience and resources to set up networks like this.”

    China wins

    There was a way out of this.

    The nine commercial license holders all invested in the

    creation of NovaEel

    , a company that worked with Dalhousie University to create a feminisation drug that would allow eel aquaculture here to compete with China — where the androgynous elvers are treated with varied drugs to ensure they become the larger, faster-growing females.

    The elvers could stay here, be raised to adulthood, have their value increase tenfold and then sold into the $400-million North American market for eels.

    The American and Canadian federal governments both invested $1 million in NovaEel through varied grants. After a decade of work, NovaEel was on track to make application for approval of its drug to the United States Food and Drug Administration and Health Canada in April.

    The company’s business plan is based around the license holders providing it with 360 kilograms annually for its first seven years. Quota holders wouldn’t get paid for their elvers until 18 months later, when they were ready for processing.

    Told by DFO to work with First Nations, the quota holders met with New Brunswick’s Wolastoqiyik First Nations and offered to bring them into NovaEel.

    The six chiefs sent a letter to then federal fisheries minister Jonathan Wilkinson in 2019 asking to involve NovaEel in consultations for quota sharing.

    DFO didn’t do that. Instead, it negotiated a deal directly with the chiefs, didn’t include NovaEel and, as of last fall, had transferred 50 per cent of the quota from commercial license holders to First Nations.

    “Without investment, access to (elvers), by taking quota from our shareholders, NovaEel loses its whole business plan,” Paul Smith, NovaEel’s chief executive officer, told Postmedia last fall.

    “The only winner here is China … China has very lax regulations on the environment and, I would argue, known illegal processes going on with a horrible history of being caught using unregulated drugs.”

    Europe cracked down on the poaching of its juvenile eels to feed Chinese aquaculture facilities by completely banning their export. European elvers can only be used to feed European aquaculture facilities.

    Canada was on track to have its own domestic eel aquaculture industry.

    But without NovaEel, China remains the only market.

    Food or money?

    Kerry Prosper, the Mi’kmaq elder, worries that in the rush to cash in, we’re all missing something important — the eels.

    “I remember when you could cut one hole (in the harbour ice) and get 25 to 30 eels, but now you could cut 20 and get four,” said Prosper of fishing for adult American eels.

    “I was out with an elder and we cut 30 holes and got three eels. He looked at me and said, ‘I guess that’s the end of my fishing.’”

    The

    A. Crassus parasite

    has arrived in Nova Scotia. It evolved in Asia alongside the eels there, which have natural defences against it, due to their shared history.

    With the Japanese eel in decline in their native range, they were brought to European aquaculture facilities for testing. The parasite travelled with them and spread into European rivers.

    Testing there found the A. Crassus plugged the eels’ swim bladders and caused internal bleeding. In 1994, the parasite was discovered at an aquaculture facility in Texas, moved into the rivers, and has been spreading northward ever since.

    Kenneth Oliveira, a biologist at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, has been studying the parasite’s impact on American eels for over 20 years.

    “Habitat change, dams, hydro power, chemical contamination, fisheries — all those things combined and then you have the parasite on top of that,” Oliveira told Postmedia in 2024. “We know it’s not good, but we don’t know the level of negative impact.”

    Elver returns have been strong over recent years. But DFO’s 2021 stock assessment of American eels found the abundance of adults to be low, bemoaned a lack of data and listed them as threatened.

    Prosper worries that in the debate over who gets what, what really matters is being overlooked.

    “Ever since the commodification of food and resources, people are no longer looking at filling their stomachs and being content with food and being healthy and the regular necessities of life,” said Prosper.

    “Our quality of life is way beyond what the capacity of the resource can afford anymore. It’s hard. Human nature is hard to control sometimes.”


    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to supporters at a campaign rally in Calgary on Friday, April 25, 2025.

    The Liberal party was all but buried in early January, a stake driven through its heart by Conservative attacks.

    The Tories thought their job was done, prepared themselves for government and took off the cloves of garlic round their necks.

    But they underestimated the Liberal party’s ability to come back from the dead, impelled by an insatiate thirst for power.

    There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump’s intervention about the need for Canada to become the 51st state was the catalyst for the

    Liberal victory on Monday night

    .

    But the conditions for that win were created long before the campaign started.

    At the turn of the year, internal party polling showed that, were an election to be held, the Liberals would find themselves as the fourth party in Parliament.

    That was an unacceptable prospect for the great, heartless machine that has governed Canada for much of its history.

    The impediment to Liberal recovery in the polls was Justin Trudeau. Voters were sick of the sight of him, so there was no option: he had to go.

    That fatigue and hostility didn’t just happen organically; it was fomented by a bombardment of anti-Trudeau Conservative

    rhetoric and apocalyptic ads

     that pushed the idea it was time for change.

    The campaign was successful, but it was a Pyrrhic victory, achieved at such cost it was rendered meaningless.

    The Conservatives pursued a similar scorched-earth approach to Jagmeet Singh,

    spending millions to persuade Canadians that the NDP leader was propping up the Liberals

    so that he could reap a lucrative parliamentary pension. They discarded the hard-won lesson that a healthy NDP was essential to Conservative success.

    Gerald Butts, the backroom strategist who crafted the narratives that brought former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty to power in 2003 and then repeated the feat with Trudeau in 2015, said that Pierre Poilievre and his campaign director, Jenni Byrne, appear to have only one mode of operating. “They’re like the Russian army. They pick a target and then grind them down with deeply personal attacks,” he said.

    Trudeau’s resignation created the opportunity for the most surprising resurrection since Lazarus of Bethany.

    Mark Carney had been

    biding his time in the wings of the Liberal party

    , after his return from his tour of duty as governor of the Bank of England. He had long harboured ambitions to be prime minister — perhaps the only thing he has in common with Poilievre. But Carney was aware of the old political adage that he who wields the knife rarely wears the crown, and was wary of pushing too hard for Trudeau to go. As late as Christmas, friends say it was still unclear whether Carney was going to commit to politics.

    But with Trudeau’s resignation, the opportunity presented itself and he jumped in with both feet.

    Events could scarcely have worked out more neatly in his favour.

    Carney

    announced his candidacy for the Liberal leadership

    in unremarkable fashion in mid-January in his hometown of Edmonton. The Conservatives still held a 20-to-25 point lead in most polls at the time, but Carney is never short of self-belief. He told me then he thought he

    had a chance of holding the Conservatives to a minority

    .

    The NDP had an opportunity to present itself as the option to replace Trudeau, just as Tom Mulcair had done in 2015 with regard to then prime minister Stephen Harper. But Singh and the NDP were too beaten up by Poilievre’s attack ads and failed to make a serious pitch to voters as a governing alternative.

    The Conservatives immediately fixed their sights on the former banker, claiming he was

    “just like Justin.”

     Liberal Leader Mark Carney speaks during a rally at McMahon Stadium in Calgary on Tuesday, April 8, 2025.

    He was condemned

    as an environmental radical

    and an elitist who was more used to global boardrooms than shopping at Loblaws.

    But voters gave Carney the benefit of the doubt.

    While Trudeau (and Poilievre) are purely political animals, Carney is more complex.

    The stylistic differences with Trudeau were reinforced by Carney’s decision to cancel the consumer carbon tax and the capital gains tax hike.

    Carney was able to offer stability with change, a seemingly oxymoronic proposition that met the moment for many voters.

    The pivot away from Trudeau-era policies reshaped the agenda and asked questions of the Conservatives.

    The Liberals lacked credibility, but Carney lent them his own. He came across as more relatable than Trudeau — and Poilievre.

    The Conservatives failed to establish the new leader’s vulnerabilities and wasted the January to March period in terms of recasting Poilievre as a more prime ministerial figure.

    That misstep was to have dramatic consequences. Carney consistently polled above his party, which is why he featured so prominently in all its advertising; Poilievre consistently polled below his party, which is why he didn’t feature at all in the last two ads of the campaign.

    One mid-campaign 

    Abacus Data poll

     suggested that nearly half of all women voters had a negative impression of Poilievre, while a similar number had a positive impression of the Liberal leader.

    The Conservative campaign also ignored warnings that it needed to be prepared to respond to the unpredictable new resident in the White House, given the visceral dislike of Trump among Canadian voters.

    The Conservative war room had a narrative crafted when Trudeau was still prime minister and was loath to pivot.

    “They fell in love with their strategy so much that they wouldn’t move off it. It was an effective strategy to bulldoze opponents between elections, when they had a lot of time and money. But they weren’t agile,” charged Butts.

    By the time Carney won the Liberal party leadership in early March, Trump had mused about Canada as the 51st state and the Liberals were neck and neck with the Conservatives in the polls.

    By the time he was sworn in as prime minister on March 14th, the Liberals were ahead in almost every poll. It was a lead they never relinquished.

    Carney ran a solid, disciplined campaign, mostly avoiding controversy.

    The candidate was not a rousing orator and the rallies were never as large or enthusiastic as those of Poilievre. But he was a quick study who improved his French, his ability to read a teleprompter and his timing.

    The Conservatives did their best to undermine Carney,

    accusing him of being a plagiarist

    who simply appropriated Trudeau’s playbook and his campaign team. It’s true that many of the key players worked on previous campaigns, including executive director Tom Pitfield and co-campaign directors Andrew Bevan, Braeden Caley, Andrée-Lyne Hallé and Butts, who, remarkably, has never lost an election he’s worked on.

    But the ideas that formed the basis for the Liberal platform are mostly taken from Carney’s book Value(s), which had input from Butts and policy advisor, Tim Krupa.

    As the prospect of a trade war with the United States crystallized, Butts began crafting the narrative that became

    “Trump wants to break us so he can own us.”

    But the central concept of the Liberals’ “Canada Strong” slogan— that the country has to build a single market and explore trading opportunities elsewhere as a means of increasing leverage for a trade negotiation with Trump — is all Carney.

    It was Butts’s job to turn that into a campaign narrative. He said he attended dozens of focus groups where voters rejected Poilievre, not because he was too like Trump, but because he was too inexperienced.

    That formed the basis for the ballot question the Liberals pushed: “Is Pierre Poilievre the person you want sitting across the table from Donald Trump?”

    People who were motivated by their anxieties about a trade war invariably answered in the negative.

    But the Conservative agenda, as represented by its anti-establishment, pro-worker “boots not suits” policy, resonated with people who were unhappy with the status quo and the prospect of a fourth Liberal term.

    They saw Poilievre as someone who would disrupt a system that wasn’t working for them. The resilience of the Conservative vote on election night, particularly in blue-collar towns that hadn’t voted Conservative in years like Sudbury and Stoney Creek in Ontario, suggests that the strategy wasn’t entirely wrong.

    But even senior Conservatives concede that you can’t build a winning coalition if you alienate women, boomers and university-educated voters.

    The Liberals succeeded in neutralizing many Conservative initiatives by adopting similar positions when it came to income tax cuts or promising more timely approvals for energy projects.

    By the time the campaigns hit Montreal for the leaders’ debates, the election had settled into an uneasy stalemate. The Conservatives began to whittle away at the Liberal lead in steady increments, but one pollster estimated that at that rate, it would take until May 8th before they would catch up, well after election day.

    Poilievre needed an incendiary moment to blow up the Liberal trajectory and it looked as if he had one with Carney’s platform, which promised $129 billion in new measures and deficits as far as the eye could see.

    Poilievre’s problem was that he had yet to release his own platform, and when he did,

    it was almost as profligate

    , with $109 billion in new measures.

    The only other occasion that threatened to derail the Carney Express was the horrific car-ramming attack in Vancouver. The incident opened the door for the Conservatives to talk about their safe-streets policies, but all sides were aware that politicizing the tragedy would result in a backlash.

    In the event, Caley, the campaign co-director, and former Vancouver mayor, Gregor Robertson, now a Liberal MP, were able to arrange for Carney to visit the site, alongside community members and B.C. Premier David Eby.

    The Liberal campaign ended in Victoria, B.C., on Sunday night, three minutes before the election day cut-off.

    The result has proven to be much closer than the Liberals thought it would be. Internal projections were in the range of high-180, mid-190-seat range. It now looks like the Liberals have fallen short of 172 seat majority status, though recounts may take them above the current count of 169.

    There were Liberal reversals in places where the received wisdom suggested there would be successes because of the collapse of the NDP vote.

    In the Niagara region, for example, when Carney visited at the start of the final week, there were hopes the party would pick up an additional seat in Niagara Falls. On the night, they failed to win that seat from the Conservatives and lost Vance Badawey’s seat of Niagara South to the Conservatives. This was the type of border community that “should” have voted Liberal.

    The Liberals gained 2.8 million new voters in this election, while the Conservatives added 2.2 million.

    The national turnout was nearly five percentage points higher than the last election, adding two million voters from 2021.

    But one of the stories of the night was the demise of the smaller parties. The NDP lost 1.8 million voters, the Greens lost 158,000 and the People’s Party a whopping 702,000, compared to 2021.

    Voters, it turns out, have minds of their own and a large number of former NDP supporters appear to have switched to the Conservatives.

    The collapse of all the minor opposition parties, bar the Bloc Québécois, will have serious implications for future elections, particularly for the one party that needs smaller, progressive parties to draw votes from the Liberals.

    Poilievre and his team ran a disciplined and well-oiled campaign. But voters ultimately rejected the Conservative leader (literally, in the case of his former constituents in Carleton), while buying Carney’s pitch for stability with moderate change.

    But in large part, the 45th general election was over before it started, with the demolition of Trudeau and Singh.

    It turns out the meat-grinder approach works about as well in Canadian politics as it does on the battlefields of Ukraine.

    National Post

    jivison@criffel.ca

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    The Parole Board of Canada is recommending Harvey Joseph Venus be charged for violating his long-term supervision order.

    A dangerous offender with “deviant sexual preferences for sexual contact with pubescent and/or prepubescent individuals and a fetishistic disorder (specifically towards female undergarments)” who was released from prison last year on a long-term supervision order could be in line for another decade behind bars if the Parole Board of Canada gets its way.

    Halifax Regional Police labelled Harvey Joseph Venus a high-risk sexual offender when he got out of prison in February 2024 on statutory release, the law that requires federal offenders who have served two-thirds of a fixed-length sentence be released under supervision. He was ordered to stay at what’s dubbed a community correctional centre in the Halifax area.

    This past February, Venus was caught allegedly driving without a license in a car with a stolen registration sticker on the plate. His passenger allegedly had cocaine on him and Venus told the parole board he’d been shot at some point, though he wouldn’t elaborate. Nor could he explain the second cellphone police found in the car.

    His case was back before the parole board two weeks ago so it could make a decision about the suspension of Venus’ long-term supervision, ordered by a judge.

    “The board believes that by resuming the (long-term supervision order) you would pose a substantial risk to society,” said his recent parole decision.

    “Your profile allows minimal room for error. As it stands, the board does not believe there is an appropriate program of supervision that can be established that would adequately protect society from the risk of your reoffending. It believes that a breach has occurred.”

    As a consequence, the board recommended Venus be charged with failing or refusing to comply with his long-term supervision order, which according to the Criminal Code is “punishable by imprisonment for a term not exceeding ten years.”

    When it recommends charges, “the Correctional Service of Canada shares the board’s decision along with relevant documents with the Attorney General’s office, who will then decide whether to proceed with laying charges,” Daniel Saulnier, who speaks for the parole board, said Wednesday in an email.

    Venus, 39, is currently serving an eight-year long-term supervision order, said his parole decision, released Wednesday.

    “Initially convicted and sentenced to a four-year sentence for sexual interference of a person under 16, you were subsequently designated as a dangerous offender,” the parole board said. “The (long-term supervision order) was an option to the court versus an indefinite prison sentence.”

    The order forbids Venus from having contact with children.

    That began in February 2022, but Venus was sent back to prison three months later for 10 more months after authorities learned he was dating a woman with a child and lied to her about his criminal history of sexually abusing kids.

    Venus completed that sentence a year ago and returned to long-term supervision.

    Venus was also convicted in 2005 for using scissors to cut the underwear off a 14-year-old girl.

    His “extensive criminal history” included “domestic violence where you have hit, pushed, and/or choked victims. Past sexual assaults have included a male and a female victim,” said the parole board.

    It noted Venus has “a poor history of conditional release.”

    His statutory release was briefly revoked last April when Venus was caught with “sexually explicit” movies. He had also failed to disclose a relationship with a woman to his handlers and accessed the internet via a mobile phone, contrary to his release conditions.

    His long-term supervision order is set to expire Dec. 8, 2030.

    A December 2023 psychological risk assessment found Venus “met the diagnosis for psychopathy, antisocial personality disorder, pedophilic disorder and six sub-types for sexual predators.”

    The Correctional Service of Canada describes Venus “as impulsive and manipulative with a tendency to use instrumental and emotional violence on intimate partners.”

    This past February, the parole board ordered him to stay at the community correctional centre for another year.

    Venus was wearing an electronic monitoring device and had “started rebuilding relationships with family members,” said the parole board. “You disclosed a friendship with a female that turned into a relationship, which appeared healthy. She was made aware of your history and status.”

    But “matters came to a head on February 28, 2025, when police saw you driving a motor vehicle despite having no valid driver’s license,” said the parole board. “When stopped, you were accompanied by a male friend believed to be the brother of your then girlfriend. License tags were reportedly stolen and a warrant of suspension and apprehension was issued shortly thereafter. A subsequent search discovered cocaine on the male passenger. A further search discovered a second cell phone. The board is left to speculate whether you were aware of cocaine in your presence.”

    Charges are pending against Venus for driving without a license, possession of the stolen registration sticker and breaching his long-term supervision order.

    “You acknowledged the error of purchasing and driving a vehicle without a license. You stated you were stressed as there was renewed media scrutiny around you, you were being harassed by another (community correctional centre) resident and you had become complacent,” said the parole board. “You also mentioned an incident where you claimed to have been shot, which overwhelmed you, but you did not want to provide any more information as you did not want to be moved.”

    Driving without a license speaks “to honesty and transparency,” said his parole decision. “These two aspects of your behaviour are critical from a risk management perspective. The presence of cocaine in the vehicle and a second phone raises additional questions and aside from denying ownership, little else is known. The board is further concerned over your ability to manage stress. A shooting was referenced, the ending of a relationship and threats from another offender could easily overwhelm your capacity to self-regulate.”

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    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to supporters on election night in Ottawa, Tuesday, April 29, 2025.

    OTTAWA — A reelected Conservative MP says it is important for the federal party to build relationships with provincial conservative parties and suggests there is “work to be done.”

    It comes as long-simmering fissures between prominent members of the Conservative Party of Canada and Ontario Premier Doug Ford spilled out into the open during the most recent federal election and has only deepened since the party’s election loss.

    Ford recently

    defended his decision

    not help Poilievre’s campaign, saying federal Conservatives were instructed to do the same during his provincial election. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, who is a Progressive Conservative, also said the federal party “was very good at pushing people away,” which he suggested was reflected in the fact it lost for a fourth time.

    Scott Aitchison, who was re-elected to Ontario riding of Parry Sound—Muskoka, questions whether the comments Ford made about the Conservative campaign during the race had any real impact, given the contest was already tightening for voters.

    However, he says he believes public service is fundamentally “a relationship business.”

    “You build relationships and networks and connections with people and you can’t ever do this stuff alone and so I think it’s important for us as a national party to build those relationships with our provincial cousins and to keep doing that.

    “So, I think maybe there’s a bit of work to be done there, but, you know, we’ll get to doing that work and, you know, heal whatever relationships we have to heal.”

    Aitchison is among federal Conservatives voicing support for party leader, Pierre Poilievre, who lost his seat in Monday’s election, where the Liberals captured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144.

    Poilievre led the party to an additional 24 seats, including breaking through in regions like the Greater Toronto Area. Supporters point to how he delivered on bringing a new coalition to the party, comprised of young people and those in the blue-collar trades.

    Re-elected Conservatives Phillip Lawrence, Corey Tochor and Kyle Seeback joined other colleagues like Shannon Stubbs, Michael Barrett and Andrew Scheer in voicing support for the leader. Others expressing their support publicly include Rona Ambrose, a former interim leader of the party, well as Jason Kenney, an ex-Conservative cabinet minister and former Alberta premier.

    While the support rolls in, the first previews of some of the lessons to be learned from the campaign have also started to emerge.

    “I think you have a leader who inspired a lot of hearts and minds who, yes, did get a lot of more votes,” said one Conservative source involved in an Ontario campaign, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

    “But I think it was just a poorly run campaign, logistically.”

    The source said issues ranged from how the party ran its nominations and recruited candidates to  communicated with local campaign teams and made decisions based on “petty politics.”

    Others who tried to run for the party have

    spoken out

    about how it managed candidate selections, including in some cases waiting until the last minute to make final decisions, despite having spent the past 18 months calling for an election.

    “There was a lack of an ability to be agile and to pivot,” the source involved in one of the Ontario campaigns.

    “Campaigns weren’t able or given the freedom to have the flexibility to do what they needed to do to win on the ground, and on-the-ground feedback really wasn’t taken into account,” the source said.

    One of the candidates in the Greater Toronto Area, also speaking on background, said while they felt Poilievre’s message on affordability and crime resonated, the person suggested that the shift the national campaign made midway through the race to talking more about change, “we might have been able to use some of that messaging a little bit earlier.”

    “That messaging resonated a lot more.”

    The candidate also pointed to the party’s focus on the carbon tax through its “axe the tax” slogan, saying while the campaign’s point that it had not been eliminated, but simply zeroed out was “factually correct,” voters did not follow.

    “That’s a hard thing to explain to people,” they said. “If you’re having to explain, you’re losing.”

    Another lesson, the candidate said, is the need for the party to broaden its appeal, which cannot only be done by the leader, they said, but by better highlighting the team around him, including candidates.

    “There was a bunch of remarkable MPs in our caucus that did a wonderful job communicating our message in different ways than the leader did, and I don’t think that they were highlighted enough as often as they could have been highlighted.”

    While U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and comments around annexation were top of mind for many voters, Conservative also point to the collapse of the federal New Democrats as a factor needing to be reckoned with.

    Even as the party made gains at the expense of the NDP, it has also historically relied on New Democrats splitting the vote with the Liberals.

    “One of the things we learned from what happened is what the absolute collapse of the NDP means for our party and for Parliament and for the country,” Aitchison said.

    Fears over Trump also drove older voters, particularly women, to vote Liberal and for Prime Minister Mark Carney, he added, who voters felt was better equipped to handle the president.

    Aitchison, who finished last when he ran against Poilievre in the party’s 2022 leadership race, said he is not second-guessing the national campaign.

    When it comes the work of looking for lessons learned, he said he hopes to “start that conversation sooner rather than later,” which he believes it has.

    No meeting of Conservative caucus has yet to have been called.

    A Conservative source, speaking on background, said there is an expectation that within the next few weeks, Poilievre should demonstrate a willingness to make changes, including when it comes to his staffing, but also his approach and tone.

    He must also show contrition, the source, given how disappointed those across the party feel after spending months riding high in public opinion polls.

    Should Poilievre do otherwise, he would be “opening himself up to a lot of problems,” they said.

    National Post

    staylor@postmedia.com

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    Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives at his office on Parliament Hill April 29, 2025.

    U.S. President Donald Trump says he will meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney, whom he called a “very nice gentleman,” at the White House in the coming days.

    Trump and Carney spoke privately on Tuesday, the day after the Liberal leader won the federal election. Trump said Carney “couldn’t have been nicer and I congratulated him.”

    Trump made the comments Wednesday in response to a reporter’s question in the Oval Office about the Canada-U.S. relationship. He said he plans to meet with Carney “within the next week or less.” He also expects to have a “great relationship” with Canada.

    He weighed in on the Canadian election, calling it a tight race and said the outcome makes it “complicated for the country.”

    He said he thought both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre hated him, but added: “I actually think the Conservative hated me much more than the so-called ‘Liberal.’”

    Carney has said previously he’s open to meeting with Trump if the president respects Canadian sovereignty and is willing to talk about a common approach to the Canada-U.S. trade relationship. The Prime Minister’s Office has not confirmed a date for the meeting.

    According to

    a statement from the PMO about the call

    , both leaders agreed on the importance of Canada and the United States working together as “independent, sovereign nations for their betterment.”

    The PMO’s readout said only that Trump and Carney would meet in the near future.

    However, the

    only public congratulations

    from the Trump administration came via a statement from the U.S. State Department. It emphasized the extensive U.S.-Canada relationship and highlighted cooperation on issues like trade, immigration, drug trafficking and countering Chinese influence.

    White House spokesperson Anna Kelly sent

    the statement to the Associated Press

    , asserting that the Canadian election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state.” Trump’s press secretary,

    Karoline Leavitt, reinforced this message

    , stating that Trump’s calls for Canada to become the 51st state were “Trump truthing, all the way.”

    How did Trump influence the election?

    On election day

    , Trump reasserted that the U.S.-Canadian border is “artificially drawn” and that Canada would benefit from annexation.

    Trump’s antagonistic stance was widely seen as

    influencing the Canadian election outcome

    . The Liberal party, under Carney, campaigned heavily on defending Canada’s sovereignty against Trump’s provocations. Many analysts and Canadian officials believe that Trump’s threats and attacks galvanized Canadian voters, helping the Liberals secure a minority government despite earlier predictions of defeat.

    In

    his victory speech

    , Carney, directly addressed Trump’s threats, declaring that Canada would “never” yield to U.S. pressure and emphasized the need for Canada to look after its own interests and maintain sovereignty. Carney also indicated that upcoming negotiations with the Trump administration would be approached with caution and a clear focus on Canadian priorities.

    What happened on Trump’s first call with Carney?

    Trump raised the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state when he spoke to Carney after he won the Liberal leadership in March. Carney did not mention it in his initial description of the call and only confirmed it when he was asked about the omission by a reporter during the election campaign. He emphasized that the conversation ultimately focused on

    both leaders engaging as sovereign equals

    .

    Carney said that Trump, despite his assertive public rhetoric,

    treated him as Canada’s prime minister

    and acknowledged Canada’s sovereignty during the call. Carney stressed that any negotiations would proceed on Canada’s terms, as an independent nation.

    According to the PMO, the leaders agreed to meet in person soon to continue discussions and to intensify talks between their respective trade and commerce officials to address immediate concerns.

    How could Trump’s rhetoric affect the Canada-U.S. relationship?

    The

    political backlash in Canada

    triggered by Trump’s comments led to Carney’s frequent warnings that the country must “dramatically reduce” its reliance on the U.S., signalling a move to

    diversify trade and security partnerships

    , by expanding trade with the EU and U.K., a complex task given Canada’s geographic and economic ties to the U.S.

    Canadian officials are

    now preparing

    for a “fundamentally different relationship,” with less trust and a greater emphasis on safeguarding national interests.

    Going forward some key issues could include:

    Where does Canada stand in its trade relationship with the U.S.?

    Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian autos (effective May 3)

    risk triggering a recession in Canada

    , which relies on the U.S. for over 20 per cent of its GDP through exports.

    Despite Carney’s assertion that Canada has “

    leverage

    ,” Trump could look for concessions on issues like energy policy or regulatory alignment. Matching U.S. tariffs could risk hurting Canadian industries reliant on U.S. imports, such as manufacturing supply chains.

    In 2025, Canada will be taking on the

    lead roles

    within the G7 and the USMCA Free Trade Commission. Building on CUSMA/USMCA provisions, the countries will likely look to enhance tariff-free market access, streamline regulatory alignment, and address non-tariff barriers (for example, remanufactured goods rules). Canada is likely to want strengthened integrated automotive and manufacturing sectors, reinforced by CUSMA’s rules of origin and tariff exemptions.

    Canada could meet potential U.S. demands for easier market entry for American financial institutions by countering with reciprocal conditions. Canada could also look for modernized provisions for

    digital trade, small business support, and labour protections

    to ensure equitable growth.

    National Post, with additional reporting from the Canadian Press

     

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