OTTAWA — The committee overseeing the federal leaders’ debates has disinvited the Green party from the proceedings in a surprise last-minute ruling.

The Leaders’ Debates Commission said in a Thursday morning press release explaining the decision that the Greens aren’t running enough candidates to be a factor in the election.

“The Commission’s mandate is to design debates that are ‘effective, informative, and compelling and benefit from the participation of the leaders who have the greatest likelihood of becoming Prime Minister or whose political parties have the greatest likelihood of winning seats in Parliament,’” read the statement.

“(We were) guided by these principles in setting the participation criteria for the 45th general election, including (that) the party has endorsed candidates in at least 90 per cent of federal ridings.”

The Green Party hadn’t named candidates in more than 100 of the 343 federal ridings in play, as of this week, putting it well below the 90 per cent threshold.

Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault said last week that part of this shortfall was due to a “strategic decision” not to run Green candidates in ridings where the Conservatives were running strong, so as not to split the progressive vote.

“We could clearly hear from the field that (the) local population, progressives, didn’t want a Green candidate running there,” Pedneaut told the media.

The commission said the strategic culling of candidates hurt the Greens’ case for taking part in the debates.

“Deliberately reducing the number of candidates running for strategic reasons is inconsistent with the Commission’s interpretation of party viability,” read one part of the statement.

To qualify for the debates, a party must have had one seat in the House of Commons, have at least four per cent national support 28 days before the election, or have endorsed candidates in at least 90 per cent of ridings 28 days before the election.

By the deadline set by the debate commission, the Green Party was polling at less than three per cent nationwide.

Pedneaut had planned to make his leadership debate debut at Wednesday’s French debate.

A spokesperson for the Greens said the party will be making a statement on the commission’s ruling at 10 AM ET.

The first of two leaders’ debates starts at 6 PM ET on Wednesday.

With files from the Canadian Press

National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com

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A large-scale study of CT scans performed in the United States has estimated that the widely used medical technology could lead to more than 100,000 cases of cancer in the lives of patients.

The study,

“Projected Lifetime Cancer Risks From Current

Computed Tomography Imaging,”

was published in the medical journal JAMA Internal Medicine by Dr. Rebecca Smith-Bindman, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco.

She found that, in 2023, 61.5 million Americans underwent a total of 93 million CT exams — slightly more females (53 per cent) than males, and many more adults (95.8 per cent) than children.

CT scans use ionizing radiation of the same type as standard X-rays,

but in higher doses

. A chest X-ray delivers about as much radiation as one receives naturally from the environment over 10 days, but a CT scan can deliver hundreds of times that much, equivalent to two years of background radiation.

Smith-Bindman wrote: “Approximately 103 ,000 radiation-induced cancers were projected to result from these examinations.” The most common were

lung cancer, colon cancer, leukemia

and bladder cancer, while in female patients, breast cancer was the second most common.

“

These findings suggest that if current radiation dosing and utilization practices continue, CT-associated cancers could eventually account for 5% of all new cancer diagnoses annually.”

Reached by phone,

Smith-Bindman

told the National Post that with “back of the napkin calculations,” those numbers could be roughly applied to Canada as well. In 2022, about

6.4 million CT scans

were performed in Canada, which would translate to about 7,200 new cancer cases over the lives of those patients.

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One problem with the CT scan, she said, was its ubiquity. She noted a study done by a group called

Choosing Wisely

, which asked medical organizations to indicate tests that were used more than needed.

“One of the tests that was identified by many medical societies that their members overused was CT scans,” she said.

One example was routine use before surgery or to look for blood clots when none were suspected. “CT

scans are a good way to look for blood clots, but it’s way over-utilized.”

She added: “Part of the reason that there’s so much overuse is that the potential harm of medical imaging and of CT scanning in particular is not considered or assessed. There’s an optimistic view of medial imaging, that it provides useful information at no cost or harm to the patient. And that’s not true. Everything we do in health care comes with potential risk. CT scanning, just like everything else, has potential risks and potential benefits.”

Smith-Bindman added that alternate imaging techniques can sometimes be used. “We know that ultrasound is a really good test for diagnosing kidney stones or children’s acute appendicitis and yet CT scanning is often used for the test when ultrasound would be just as good or better.”

The radiation dose can also be modified so that it does not exceed certain thresholds, and is not higher than needed for a particular scan. Smith-Bindman suggested a organization called

Know Your Dose

to learn about all types of medical dosages.

She was cautious about patients turning away from CT scans in every situation, however.

“Sometimes CT scanning is the right test to provide the most accurate or rapid information. And in those settings patients should get the CT. But in many situations there are alternatives, and I encourage patients to have these conversations with their health care providers.”

She also had some personal anecdotes on the use of CT. When her son was injured in a skiing accident, the ER doctor gave her the choice of running a CT for possible concussion but added that he didn’t think it was necessary. She declined.

“But another setting, same son, fell out of a tree, hit his head, and we took him to the emergency department. They wanted a CT and we said: ‘Great, let’s get a CT.’”

That one was clean. But hours later, the doctors suggested another CT “to make sure nothing had developed.” Her husband (also a doctor) suggested they just watch their son instead and make sure he was OK.

“And the doctor said: ‘Oh you can do that instead.’ And we said: ‘Well that’s what we’re going to do instead. We don’t want a second CT.’”

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OTTAWA — Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has the future of his party’s campaign on his shoulders with two debates that the Bloc hopes will boost his popularity.

From Montreal to Chicoutimi, one common thread emerges from the Bloc supporters’ rhetoric: the debates will change everything.

They believe that undecided voters or those likely to change their minds and vote for another party, who represent about a third of the population according to polls, will be inclined to support the separatist party of La Belle Province.

A dozen Bloc insiders and supporters told us they expect a turnaround in the polls after Blanchet’s performance in the French and English debates in Montreal on Wednesday and Thursday.

According

to the latest Postmedia-Leger poll,

the Liberals have a 15-point lead over the Bloc in Quebec.

Even Blanchet has spoken at length about the debates since the beginning of the campaign, suggesting that Mark Carney would “discover his temperament” during a debate.

In an interview, Rodolphe Husny, a former advisor to Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, suggested that the Bloc should “manage expectations” and adapt its strategy accordingly.

“You should never be overconfident because it’s when you’re overconfident that you make your mistakes and you don’t win a debate when expectations are too high,” he said.

According

to a recent Ipsos poll

, Carney was the clear favourite for the English debate (41 per cent) compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre.

But for the French debate, Poilievre (34 per cent) was leading Blanchet (20 per cent) and Carney (16 per cent). In the province, several observers have already suggested that Blanchet will have the best performance.

“Around one-quarter in each feel that none of the party leaders will win either the English or French debates,” wrote CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs Darrell Bricker in a note.

In an interview with National Post, communications strategist Louis Aucoin said the Bloc should not “assume that Yves-François Blanchet is a good debater, because everyone recognizes that.”

He added that the timing of the debates is important, taking place just days before advance polls and a week and a half before election day. The debate, he added, “needs to percolate into public opinion”.

The Léger

poll found that only 17 per cent of Canadians

and 20 per cent of Quebecers believe the debates could influence their vote, compared to 21 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters.

Furthermore, 40 per cent of Bloc voters could change their minds by election day, compared to 29 per cent of Liberals and 14 per cent of Conservatives. About one in five voters in Quebec have the Liberals or the Bloc as their second choice.

Moreover, Blanchet is the leader that Quebecers would invite for dinner at their home with (19 per cent), seven points ahead of the three other leaders, but far behind the “None” category at 32 per cent.

“April 16th is an eminently important date; it will be the first clear opportunity to challenge (Mark Carney) in a controlled environment. My job will be to ask Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre the questions that have not been answered,” Blanchet told media a couple of days ago.

Bloc insiders have suggested that the 2021 English debate, where moderator Shachi Kurl

appeared to imply that Blanchet held

racist views toward “religious minorities, anglophones, and allophones,” completely changed the course of the campaign and helped the Bloc secure 32 seats.

Aucoin believes that Blanchet will first and foremost have to adjust his message before hoping for a gift from heaven.

“He needs to adjust his focus to the issues surrounding the tariff war because when I look at the Bloc’s latest announcements, it feels like we’re in the last campaign,” he said, noting that the separatist party has consistently emphasized identity and language issues. These issues don’t seem to be holding the attention of the Quebec electorate this time around.

The fact that Blanchet told the media that he didn’t need “any particular preparation” for the debates does not bode well, according to Aucoin.

“He’s formidable, but it requires the same preparation as the other leaders. And if he neglects that, he’s taking risks that shouldn’t be taken,” he said.

On Tuesday, Blanchet was in Montreal but had a busy day until the evening when he participated in an event in the Laurentians with a Quebec singer.

“My preparation is more about a state of mind, I think. It will be a very calm state of mind,” he said.

In comparison, little has been said about the preparations of the Liberal and Conservative leaders in the Montreal area.

On Tuesday, Blanchet also suggested that the French-language debate be moved to accommodate Quebecers watching the Montreal Canadiens compete for a playoff spot.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh joined Blanchet in asking the commission to move the debate to another time, which it ultimately did. The commission moved the debate to 6 p.m., rather than keeping it at 8 p.m.

In 2011, Gilles Duceppe requested that the debate be moved so that Canadians wouldn’t have to choose between politicians and hockey players. At the time, the Montreal Canadiens were playing their first playoff game against the Boston Bruins.

At the time, the request was also granted.

However, Duceppe slipped in that debate suggesting that the NDP could never form the government. “That’s a bit arrogant. I expect to hear that from Mr. Ignatieff, but not from you,” replied Layton at the time. Three weeks later, the orange wave swept Quebec and the Bloc Québécois only had four seats left. Duceppe also lost his seat.

And in Quebec, several sources feared that Blanchet was as arrogant as Duceppe was at the time.

“You know, in a two-hour debate, each leader will speak for 20 or 25 minutes,” he said at a press conference Tuesday. “It doesn’t require a lot of preparation in terms of content.”

Blanchet, who celebrates his birthday on Wednesday, might be hoping that other leaders would give him a gift: a boost in the polls.

National Post

atrepanier@postmedia.com

• After a miracle byelection win, the Bloc is ready to lose in Montreal
• In Quebec City, a Conservative candidate cannot run and the Bloc is benefitting

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OTTAWA — A former British Columbia provincial cabinet minister whose candidacy the federal Conservatives rejected is now threatening the party’s chances of recapturing a historically safe seat.

“What ultimately tipped the scales for me was when lifelong Conservatives said to me ‘we have seen what has happened here, it is unfair’,” said Mike de Jong, who is running as an Independent in Abbotsford—South Langley.

It comes as others who campaigned in the hopes of becoming a Conservative candidate are speaking out about the party’s handling of the nomination process in certain ridings, raising concerns about its behind-the-scenes operations, as it spent months publicly pushing for a federal election.

“I felt I was betrayed. Totally betrayed,” said Keshav Mandadi, who tried to become a candidate in Mississauga and now no longer supports the party.

Successive public opinion polls suggest the Conservatives are tied or trailing the Liberals in pubic support during the federal election campaign, which concludes on April 28.

Some in the party also question

whether internal decisions are to blame

for the reversal of fortune of the Tories, who led in polls by wide margins for over a year until Liberal Leader Mark Carney replaced unpopular prime minister Justin Trudeau in the middle of a trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump.

For de Jong, his journey to registering as an Independent began when Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was running to become party leader, back in 2022.

Recognized as one of the longest-serving representatives in the B.C. legislature, de Jong was also the province’s finance minister when the former B.C. Liberals were in power, delivering five balanced budgets.

During the federal party leadership race, which Poilievre won in a landslide, de Jong says he was impressed by the new leader’s message of fiscal responsibility.

“That led to a request from (Poilievre) and his folks for an endorsement from me,” he told National Post. “And I did.”

What followed was a suggestion he should consider running federally, de Jong said. That opportunity opened up once Ed Fast, the long-serving MP for Abbotsford announced in March 2024 he would be retiring.

After deciding to seek the party’s nomination, which candidates must first secure in order to run under a party’s banner, de Jong says he campaigned for a year, recruiting more than 2,000 members to join the Conservatives.

Last month, just days before the nomination vote was scheduled, he says he was informed by party headquarters that his application had been denied. An attempt to appeal the decision was also unsuccessful, while Sukhman Gill, a 25-year-old whose family runs a blueberry farm and who is new to politics, won the nomination.

“That’s what I think people are reacting negatively to out here,” de Jong said.

One of those is Fast himself, who is throwing his support behind de Jong after he says the party disregarded his request that the contest to replace him be run fairly.

In a scathing open letter, Fast wrote that “party insiders” disqualified “the most qualified candidate,” saying “democracy lost out.”

“In times like these, we desperately need a tested and proven leader,” said Fast — citing the trade war with the U.S. — “not an inexperienced, unqualified Johnnie-come-lately.”

Polling aggregator

338Canada suggests the race

for Fast’s former Abbotsford seat to be toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives, meaning de Jong’s campaign as the second “unofficial” Conservative on the ballot could peel off some of the party’s support in a tight race when every vote could count.

Conservative campaign spokesman Sam Lilly said the party would not comment on reasons why certain people did not become candidates.

“We are proud of our slate of Canada First Conservative (candidates) who are ready to bring home Canada’s promise,” he said in a statement.

As an Independent, de Jong still believes a Conservative government is what the country needs and is committing to voters he would support one as their local representative, should he win the seat.

Across the country in Toronto, Yvonne Robertson says she has heard from dozens of upset Conservatives who bought party memberships and were waiting for a nomination vote to happen in Don Valley West, a riding she represented for the party in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections, losing to Liberals both times.

Hoping to do run again, Robertson, who saw her vote grow from the first time she ran, says she informed the party back in 2023 that “we were ready,” having amassed 150 volunteer teams and some 4,000 lawn signs.

After months of silence, during which time she continued hosting events, fundraising and selling memberships, Robertson says she learned in a generic email the party sent to members as the election got underway that Rob Pierce, another candidate who had been eyeing the nomination, had been appointed by the party.

“I thought that this was poor management,” she said.

“It comes down to leadership. This is not the actions of people who are ready to go, when they drop in candidates, it doesn’t matter which riding you’re in … it’s not a good sign. This is an operational choice that they made, I think, awhile ago.”

Pierce recently told National Post he was only named the day before the election was called, saying

“the party decided to try to do something different.” 

Robertson says Pierce has called her to ask for help. “There’s a backlash coming now,” she said.

As an owner of different businesses, including a local cookie shop, Robertson, who considers herself an optimist, says she will be fine without the nomination, and is cheering on Poilievre, whom she called a “natural leader” and “team player.”

Still, she questions why the party waited months and months before settling the nomination question and plans to raise the matter once the election concludes.

“You have to debrief after something like this,” she said.

While Robertson does not want people to give up, Keshav Mandadi says he has, after trying to become a candidate in Mississauga East—Cooksville. 

In early March, Nita Kang, a real estate agent, announced she was the Conservatives’ nominated candidate, much to Mandadi’s surprise, even as he heard rumblings that could be the case.

In the months leading up to that, Mandadi says he was reassured by different party officials that a nomination contest would happen and kept campaigning, after taking out a Conservative membership in 2023.

Ultimately, he says he was informed that his application was incomplete, an explanation he rejects.

“I lost faith in the people who operated this party,” he said.

National Post

staylor@postmedia.com

• With Honda scare, Carney and Poilievre ramp up election pitches to voters
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OTTAWA — No matter where Donald Trump’s ever-changing tariff plans land in the coming days, economists and other trade specialists warn that Canada’s efforts to diversify from the United States market will be overwhelmed by the “gravitational pull” from our southern neighbour.

Trade officials say the Canadian and American economies — for better or worse — are tied at the hip and that’s not going to change no matter what Canada does to diversify its exports.

Trade diversification has been a Canadian government priority for decades and a frequent refrain on the current federal election campaign trail. The notion of diversification, a trade priority since before Confederation, has achieved near-infallible status in recent weeks as candidates look for responses to the Trump tariff threats.

But those most familiar with trade patterns say the campaign chatter, especially any talk about joining the European Union (EU), is not to be taken too seriously.

“It’s completely a pipe dream,” said Brian Lee Crowley, a political economist and managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa-based think tank.

Canada and the U.S. are blessed to share a lucrative “continental economy,” he says. “We make things together.”

There’s no down side to trade diversification, the economists say, in that more customers and increased sales are always good. But market and geographic realities suggest that the U.S. will easily remain Canada’s leading buyer for the forseeable future. The Canadian and American economies and their companies’ countless supply chains are tightly woven, a reality that may not be well understood by most politicians on either side of the border.

There are also other sturdy barriers to diversifying trade.

Benjamin Tal, the deputy chief economist of CIBC World Markets, said transportation costs soar once a North American company exports overseas. There can also be added linguistic, cultural and regulatory questions and additional costs and headaches associated with the need to open overseas sales offices.

Custom fees and transportation can add significant costs to exports, but it’s also difficult to quantify relationships and the element of trust, said Louise Gervais, a systems manager at Nickleson Machine & Tool in Windsor, Ont.

A company such as Nickleson, with about 25 employees, can’t always afford the risk of sending a large shipment of its tools for auto and aerospace parts manufacturing to an unknown customer on the other side of the world.

“It takes a while to build up that rapport,” she said.

Canada’s roster of free-trade agreements is not a barrier. Since signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993, Canada has moved aggressively by signing 15 deals, including with the EU, that cover 51 countries, including all members of the G7 economic club.

Governments have also invested billions in trade diversification, notably in infrastructure and services to support exporters and in helping Canadian businesses execute export strategies.

All of the deals and investment are designed to make exporting more fluid and lucrative for Canadian companies.

Yet it’s unclear how well they’re working, at least when it comes to trade diversification. CIBC says the percentage of Canadian exports headed to the U.S. market is now 76 per cent, the same as a decade ago, while American goods and services account for 50 per cent of Canadian imports, slightly less than a decade ago.

Trade specialists say that figure alone makes the point that international trade is dominated by economic factors — supply, demand and geographic proximity to markets in particular — more than political ones. Tariffs, for example, can have a direct effect on sales and profit margins, they say, but are unlikely to shift international trade trends as much as many observers might think.

Exports to both the U.S. and non-U.S. markets have been growing at a healthy clip in recent years, said Todd Winterhalt, the senior vice-president of international markets for Export Development Canada (EDC), a Crown corporation that helps Canadian businesses with foreign trade.

But Winterhalt agrees that the current tariff war makes this a particularly good time for Canada to invest in its trade infrastructure, particularly transportation and digital links, and pipelines.

Canada’s diversification problem is fixable but will require governments and others to put words into action, said Goldy Hyder, the chief executive officer of the Business Council of Canada, which represents many of Canada’s largest companies.

If Canada wants economic growth and jobs that come with increased trade, Hyder says, Canada needs to reduce the red tape that burdens business, slash approval times for projects, and build the pipelines, port facilities and other necessary infrastructure for exports.

Hyder adds that it’s not the Trump tariffs that worry him the most, it’s Canada’s own inaction.

Talk about trade diversification is again on the rise, as is often the case during two types of circumstances, both of which fit the current landscape: economic crises and election campaigns.

“It’s a unique moment in time,” says Winterhalt.

Economists agree that Canada is blessed by its geography: lots of land and resources and located on the doorstep of the world’s largest and arguably most dynamic economy. Those factors usually override diversification efforts, or even tariffs, creating a “gravitational pull” towards more trade with the U.S.

But Tal says the bigger picture trend in Canadian trade is in fact moving strongly away from diversification, despite the Trump tariff talk. The world has entered into what he calls “the economic Cold War,” a global trend that has not yet been fully appreciated by many politicians and others. The globe is being divided into two major trading blocs, he says, similar to the two large political and military blocs during the Cold War that started at the end of the Second World War.

These two new trade orbits are centred around the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. and China, and there’s no question that Canada is firmly entrenched in the U.S. camp, Tal says, and a decoupling is virtually impossible no matter what happens in this round of tariff wars.

All countries, like with the Cold War, will likely need to choose a side in this bipolar world. The decision, Tal says, is an obvious one for Canada.

“In Canada, we know where our lifeline to economic viability and security lies,” a recent CIBC trade report says.

Tal predicts in that report that the North American neighbours will settle their part of the tariff wars by renegotiating the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the renegotiated NAFTA. A new deal, the report says, will likely lead to Canada committing to buy more American goods, probably as part of a vow to increase defence spending.

And that, the CIBC economist points out, will mean a greater Canadian reliance on trade with the U.S. — the exact opposite of diversification.

National Post

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MONTREAL — They may not have qualified for the NHL playoffs yet, but the Montreal Canadiens scored a win Tuesday against the French-language debate which will now begin two hours early tomorrow to accommodate a key Habs game.

French debate moderator Patrice Roy

announced on social media Tuesday

that the political clash was going to start two hours earlier than originally planned — 6 p.m. instead of 8 p.m. — to avoid too much overlap with the Canadiens game that evening.

That’s because the Habs will be playing a likely make-or-break playoff qualification game against the Carolina Hurricanes starting at 7 p.m. Wednesday. If they win, the team revered by many Quebecers will qualify for the NHL playoffs.

Ironically, the change of schedule could prove to be useless if the Columbus Blue Jackets — the only team that could still knock the Canadiens out of the playoff picture — lose to the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday evening.

Tuesday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet said they were concerned that the potentially crucial hockey game would pull significant amount of eyeballs away from the French language debate.

“We’re asking people—especially in Quebec—to choose between a critical democratic 

debate

 and cheering on the Habs in a must-win game.

This kind of political discussion shouldn’t compete with something that means so much to so many,” Singh said in a statement requesting the debate be held at another time.

His statement noted that the French debate was

rescheduled in 2011 to avoid conflicting with a playoff clash between the Canadiens and the Boston Bruins, who would go on to win the Stanley Cup.

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