Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat and Chinese detainee, weighed in on Canada’s newly announced trade arrangements with China following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with President Xi Jinping this week.

In a series of social media posts on Saturday, Kovrig, who spent more than three years in the Chinese Communist Party’s custody following the arrest of a Huawei executive in 2018, warned that the long-term risks could outweigh the short-term economic relief.

On Friday, Carney announced a deal that would allow 49,000 Chinese-manufactured electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada annually at a tariff rate of six per cent, down from the 100 per cent tariff announced by the previous Liberal government in lock-step with the previous U.S. administration. In exchange, China has agreed to reduce tariffs on some Canadian canola products, excluding canola oil, and certain seafood products from between 25 and 85 per cent to either zero or 15 per cent.

In

one post on X

, Kovrig said the visit, the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2018, “was never just a courtesy call.” He posited that China was in search of tangible wins on EV access, energy and political cooperation.

“With Canada–U.S. relations under strain, the General Secretary smelled blood in the water and seized a moment of increased leverage,” Kovrig wrote.

“Carney secured limited relief for farmers and reopened dialogue channels, but Xi kept his pressure tools and is sure to keep using them.”

What to make of PM Carney’s first official visit to China? This was never just a courtesy call. Xi Jinping framed the visit as a “turning point” because the CCP wants concrete things from Canada, including market access for its hypersubsidized EVs, stable energy supplies, and… pic.twitter.com/UEfL5UgFmF

— Michael Kovrig (@MichaelKovrig) January 17, 2026

He compared the situation to a “rope-a-dope,” in which one side takes blows to wait out long-term advantage in a fight and said Canada should diversify exports “for vulnerable sectors” and figure out how to protect its own vehicle industry and “cybersecurity defences” amidst an influx of Chinese EVs.

In another post, he said Canada “should be able to sell China commodities like food and energy without weakening its national security.” He warned, however, that too much reliance on the Chinese market affords the CCP even more political leverage.

“That’s how pressure and elite capture accumulates — quietly, agreement by agreement, not through one dramatic concession,” he wrote.

“The lesson? Start small, keep deals reversible, protect the industrial base, and draw red lines around national security, foreign interference, coercion, and human rights abuses.

China’s Xi told Canada’s Carney their two governments should “adhere to the proper way for states to get along with one another.” Question: Does the “proper way” now include NOT taking citizens hostage and torturing them to coerce policy changes? pic.twitter.com/kRa9og0l3a

— Michael Kovrig (@MichaelKovrig) January 17, 2026

Kovrig also opined on Chinese steel, highlighting a January 2025 ruling from Canada’s International Trade Tribunal that determined that steel strapping dumped from China had caused injury to Canadian producers, leading to new anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

He said the case is an example of the importance of keeping trade enforcement separate from diplomatic matters.

“Dialogue with Beijing can continue, but it shouldn’t dilute investigations, penalties, or expectations around compliance,” he posted.

Kovrig also took issue with the optics of the visit, writing on another post with a video of Carney and Jinping shaking hands: “Diplomacy is necessary. Grinning is optional. This is not a good look.”

• Burner phones, security warnings and no ‘megaphones’: How Carney’s trip to Beijing struck a surprising new tone with China
• ‘Fix this mess’: Doug Ford rips Carney’s deal to loosen EV tariffs on China

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BEIJING — In April 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney was standing on the stage of the federal election leaders’ debate when he was asked to identify the greatest threat to Canada’s national security.

Without hesitation, Carney declared: “China.”

On Thursday, Carney stood at a podium in Beijing’s Ritan Park and beamed as he announced a new “strategic partnership” with China that aims to increase trade, communication and collaboration between both countries.

It also makes a strong push for Chinese EV investments in Canada with the eventual objective of having a manufacturing plant established in Canada.

If the swing in tone gives you whiplash, you’re not alone. So, what changed in those nine months?

It’s hard to tell.

Ask Carney if he still believes China to be the greatest threat to Canada’s national security and he’ll skirt the issue.

“The security landscape continues to change in a world that is more dangerous and divided. We face many threats,” Carney told reporters in response to that question during the press conference in Ritan Park.

“My responsibility as prime minister is to manage those threats by building resilience, building security,” he added. “The threat environment has increased, the risks have multiplied, so too has our resilience and our engagement.”

Ask any other Liberal minister to explain the change and they’ll stick to roughly the same script, almost to the point where one wonders if Carney regrets pointing the finger at China back in April.

The world is changing largely due to the “transformational” presidency of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Liberals will say. So, Canada needs to diversify its trading partners and China is a prime candidate because it’s a more predictable partner than the U.S. now, they’ll add.

Likely also on the Liberals’ mind is Trump’s National Security Strategy released in December that aims to restore “American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere,” the constant threat of new U.S. tariffs against Canada and statements by top U.S. officials declaring they want to draw away Canadian auto manufacturing.

Comments like those are pushing Canada to seek non-U.S. partners to boost its fledgling EV industry. China’s EV industry, largely considered a world leader in both manufacturing and technological advancement, became a prime candidate.

That’s despite concerns that the technology in the vehicles could be used by China to spy on users and pose a threat to foreign countries’ national security.

The Carney government says its taking precautions in its dealing with China, described by Canada’s national security agencies as the most sophisticated and able threat actor facing the country.

Carney said Canada discussed its expectations and “red lines” with the Chinese government last week with respect to foreign interference and other public safety issues.

He also promised that the government was going into this new “strategic partnership” with “clear eyes” and guardrails preventing China from investing in certain sensitive industries. He recently cited artificial intelligence and critical minerals as examples.

But will that be enough to prevent China from continuing to be the most sophisticated and prevalent cyber and foreign interference actor against Canada, as described by Canada’s national security agencies?

In the meantime, the public service’s concerns about security while in China were certainly obvious from the start of the trip.

One hour before Can Force One entered Chinese airspace Wednesday, all public servants and political staff were required to power down their usual work and personal devices and stash them in a Faraday bag.

While in Beijing, they all used “burner” devices, which were promptly returned as soon as the delegation’s plane left Chinese airspace Saturday.

There’s no need to use burners in Qatar and Switzerland — the next stops on the eight-day trip — showing that not all allies are on equal security footing.

Carney’s emphasis at the end of the trip was on the restoration of Canada’s trade, political and cultural relationships with China, which are emerging from eight years of deep frost.

After his meeting with President Xi Jinping, the prime minister proudly announced a new “strategic partnership” with the Asian superpower built on five pillars: energy, increased trade, international governance, public safety and security, and increased “people-to-people” ties.

Part of the deal was an agreement that China would drop many of its crippling tariffs on Canadian canola. In exchange, the federal government would exempt up to 49,000 Chinese EVs from 100 per cent tariffs this year all the while pushing for Chinese auto manufacturers to build production capacity in Canada.

“We are building a web of new connections with China to create new, transformative opportunities for Canadian workers, and more stability, certainty, and prosperity on both sides of the Pacific,” he told Canadian and Chinese reporters.

Truth be told, everything about Carney’s trip to China felt like a hard break from the Trudeau era. In fact, Carney seemed more inclined to implicitly criticize his Liberal predecessor than his Chinese hosts.

Instead of Justin Trudeau’s public insistence that China do more on human and women’s rights, Carney spoke occasionally of “values-based realism” and “differences.”

“We respect the differences in each other’s systems. It does mean that our cooperation is more focused, more limited,” he said.

“We don’t grab a megaphone and have the conversations that way,” he added in an obvious swipe at Trudeau. “We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.”

The China section of the Trudeau government’s 2022 Indo-Pacific strategy, written during the

height of the “two Michaels” saga

and presented by then-Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly (now industry minister under Carney), also appears to have gone by the wayside.

The document described the Asian behemoth as “an increasingly disruptive global power” that “increasingly disregards” international rules and norms.

“China is looking to shape the international order into a more permissive environment for interests and values that increasingly depart from ours,” reads the document.

And yet throughout the Beijing trip, the Carney government described China as a key partner in supporting multilateral institutions left in the lurch as a still-unclear “new world order” replaces the one previously led by the United States.

Gone are the words “disruptive” or “disregards” from the federal government’s lexicon on China, replaced by terms such as “partner” and “China’s strengths.”

Carney distanced himself from the Trudeau-era policy while in China.

“I wasn’t a member of the government at the time,” Carney told reporters about the 2022 policy Thursday. “I wasn’t there; it wasn’t my view.”

The world is changing quickly, becoming more unstable and dangerous, the Liberals note repeatedly. That’s why the government is reworking its foreign policy, its Indo-Pacific strategy and is set to release a new auto-sector strategy in February. And it’s happening on the fly.

As one senior government official told reporters on the plane out of Beijing:

“I’m just dealing with sh– as it starts.”

National Post

cnardi@postmedia.com

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DOHA, QATAR — What do Céline Dion, Shania Twain, Michael Bublé, Bryan Adams and his Highness the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani have in common?

They are all sounds Prime Minister Mark Carney heard during a formal lunch with Qatar’s leadership Sunday.

During a lunch with Qatar’s authoritarian leader to formalize a new “strategic partnership,” Carney and the Canadian delegation were regaled by music from a small ensemble of a dozen musicians from the Qatar Philharmonic Orchestra.

The tunes accompanied a regal meal of lobster, beef and camel meat in the emir’s palatial Amiri Diwan, the leader’s official office building.

The playlist was a blend of Arabic and Canadian music, the latter being an eclectic mix of iconic Canadiana from the ’80s, ’90s and 2000s.

Apparently, Qatari leadership is quite fond of Céline Dion, whose songs composed 20 per cent of the 10-song playlist.

The musical ensemble kicked off with Dion’s 1994 smash hit The Power of Love

It was followed by Shania Twain’s You’re Still The One in which she sings about two partners staying together despite obstacles and naysayers.

Dion’s music reappeared later in the meal with a rendition of her legendary Titanic theme My Heart Will Go On.

But the musical energy picked right back up again when the orchestra continued with Bryan Adams’ rock classic Summer of 69.

Michael Bublé’s Haven’t Met You Yet was next on the playlist of the meeting between both leaders and their entourages.

Interspersed throughout the Canadian tunes were Arabic classics such as the musical poem Lamma Bada Yatathanna and Qatari song Adeilk Ya Adolha.

But nowhere in sight were songs from more contemporary Canadian stars such as Drake, The Weeknd, Justin Bieber or Tate McRae.

What’s particularly exceptional about the playlist is that the Canadian delegation had no part in its planning. Rather, the song choices were entirely made by the Qataris. Generally, the hosting delegation will ask Canada’s foreign service to provide musical recommendations for their bands or playlists. But not this time.

During the meal, Carney and the emir put the final touches on a partnership that the prime minister says involves a commitment by Qatar to invest significantly in yet-unidentified “nation-building projects” in Canada.

“We are announcing an ambitious new partnership. We are deepening our ties across trade, investment, defence, and AI,” Carney told reporters after the meeting.

After years of delays, the prime minister said both governments also agreed to prioritize negotiations for a new Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement and begin new ones for a double taxation deal that aims to increase mobility between both countries.

Carney also said he invited the emir to attend the Canada vs. Qatar soccer World Cup game in Vancouver, B.C., this summer.

On Sunday morning, Carney was greeted by a grand welcoming display by Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani that involved a procession of camels and horses, a band and a small military inspection.

On Monday, the prime minister will travel to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum annual summit.

National Post

cnardi@postmedia.com

• Mark Carney to accept role on Trump’s Gaza ‘Board of Peace’
• Jesse Kline: Mark Carney’s dalliance with dictators

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Chinese-made electric vehicles are almost invisible in Canada and the United States, but elsewhere around the globe they are a huge hit, dominating international production and sales for battery-powered cars.

The lack of visibility for popular Chinese-made electric vehicle (EVs) brands in North America is largely because both Canada and the United States imposed a tariff of 100 per cent on their importation, doubling their cost for consumers.

The presence on Canada’s roads should be changing soon after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to Beijing for meetings with China’s President Xi Jinping. Carney announced a “landmark trade arrangement” Friday: China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola in exchange for Canada allowing some Chinese-made EVs into the country at a preferential tariff rate.

It might make Canada the next metaphorical racetrack for Chinese-made EVs, which have been lapping competitors in global markets in recent years.

China has become the world’s EV manufacturing heavyweight and export powerhouse. It’s EVs are less expensive than most competing vehicles and are often touted as using better technology. The head design for China’s biggest EV maker BYD Auto is Wolfgang Egger, former head of design at Alfa Romeo, Audi and Lamborghini.

Of the approximately 90 million EVs made last year, China accounted for about 35 million, while the United States manufactured about 11 million and Canada less than two million.

The rise of China’s EVs started in 2008 when the world’s second most populous country made a strategic shift towards EVs for its domestic market.

China’s government infused massive state support to make it happen.

Chinese consumers were given generous subsidies and inducements to replace gas cars with EVs, sparking huge domestic demand. That gave Chinese manufacturers a head start, working out technological, design, and manufacturing kinks, scaling up production, and leveraging volume to reduce prices.

Through growing pains, its EVs gained significant traction in the last five years.

There were an estimated 11 million

domestically made EVs sold

in China in 2024, where an estimated one in 10 cars currently on the road is electric.

China-made brands such as BYD, Nio, Aito, and Wuling HongGuang became hits as the price gap narrowed between battery-powered cars and conventional gas-powered cars.

In China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the vast majority of EVs sold were cheaper than cars with a conventional engine. That contrasts sharply with the United States, where EVs are typically 30 per cent more expensive.

There are plenty of complaints that Chinese EVs have an unfair advantage when they hit the sales floor in other countries.

China’s centralized system means massive government support and subsidization of manufacturing. China places national interest as a corporate and manufacturing goal. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Chinese government subsidies

are estimated at $230.9 billion

from 2009 to 2023.

Wages for Chinese assembly line workers start at about US$4.20 an hour, vastly eclipsed by the base rate in North American auto manufacturing of US$29.

Although most of its production still feeds robust domestic market new sales abroad is increasingly important in China’s EVs manufacturing sector. Finding export markets for China’s firehose of EVs is seen as an existential pursuit.

“There are 200 EV producers in China, who collectively have created far more capacity than the domestic market can bear. Not surprisingly, production has expanded rapidly, leading to growing inventories. As a result, firms have engaged in a bitter price war at home and expanded efforts to promote export,” says a 2024 report by the U.S.-based CSIS.

“Despite the extensive government support and expansion of sales, very few Chinese EV producers and battery makers are profitable.”

Chinese gas-powered cars had struggled for years compared to the world’s automakers in Germany, North America, Japan and Korea.

Their march on the world began with a push in Bangladesh and India in 2018 and 2019, before turning to Europe and Latin America, finding success for offering vehicles with sound technology at a cheaper price.

In some export markets, Chinese EVs have achieved price parity or better compared with gas cars, such as in Thailand.

Recently, China has been manufacturing more than 70 per cent of EV exports around the world.

Tariffs, however, have been an impediment.

Even before U.S. President Donald Trump’s bullish embrace of tariffs, many Western countries have been wary of allowing a glut of Chinese EVs hit their markets. His predecessor, Joe Biden, imposed tariffs on China’s EVs, as did the European Union and Canada. Europe’s 38 per cent tariff was imposed when Chinese EVs went from being about one per cent of EVs sold in 2019 t

o more than 50 per cent by 2023

.

The China-built BYD Song, a popular pick, is almost half the price of the Tesla Model Y in Europe. Overall,

BYD outsold Tesla

in Europe.

With trade barriers in Europe, Canada and the United States, Chinese manufacturers have been pushing other global markets.

As the price gap narrowed between a Chinese-made EV and a gas car, emerging EV markets in Asia and Latin America fueled explosive sales growth, increasing more than 50 percent in Vietnam and Thailand.

Brazil — Latin America’s biggest car market — became fertile ground.

EV exports to Brazil almost doubled in 2024, according to United Nations Commodity Trade data. In the last two years, the price gap between EV and gas in Brazil shrank from EVs being twice as expensive to within 25 per cent, sparking an 85 per cent jump in EV sales with the vast majority being made in China.

Price parity, or close to it, is seen as the goal needed to spark more robust EV sales in Canada and the United States.

According to data from the IEA, average EV car prices in China had dropped below those of gas cars in 2023. In contrast, EV cars in North America were about 21 per cent more expensive and in Europe about 38 per cent more. That leaves a big gap to be bridged.

Chinese export EVs are not as cheap as they are in its domestic market, where they sell for between US$10,000 to US$20,000. A study

comparing the prices of the Chinese EVs

found that the same models were between 49 per cent and 112 per cent more expensive in Germany than in China.

The new trade deal struck by Carney and Xi Canada will allow

up to 49,000 Chinese EVs into the Canadian market

with tariff rate dropped from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent, according to the Prime Minister’s office.

Half of the imported vehicles under the deal are “anticipated” to be affordable EVs with an import price of less than $35,000, creating new lower-cost options for Canadians, the PMO said.

The average price of a new car in Canada was recently pegged at $67,000. A recent search by Driving.ca

found the cheapest new car in Canada

was the Nissan Versa with a base price of $20,798, with the cheapest EV in Canada being the Nissan Leaf, with a base price of $41,748.

• Email: ahumphreys@postmedia.com | Twitter: AD_Humphreys

• Canada to allow Chinese EVs to trickle in while China reduces canola tariffs
• ‘Fix this mess’: Doug Ford rips Carney’s deal to loosen EV tariffs on China

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The last 20 days in Iran have been deadly, violent, and unbearable to witness. The authoritarian regime in Tehran has indiscriminately targeted peaceful protesters with guns and live ammunition, cut off internet access, and imprisoned thousands.

At least 3,428 civilian protesters have been killed and thousands injured, according to Iran Human Rights, an Oslo-based NGO that monitors violence inside Iran. The death toll could be much higher.

The demonstrations were first sparked by bazaaris, or shopkeepers, in Tehran’s main bazaar — the financial hub of the country — in response to currency depreciation and soaring prices.

They quickly spread across major cities, and protesters’ demands broadened into calls for an end to nearly five decades of oppressive theocratic rule.

“In Iran’s political psychology, two factors are traditionally essential for a fundamental transformation: first, the bazaar must enter into sustained strikes and protests; second, the army or national armed forces must side with the people against the ruling power,” said Hussain Ehsani, a research fellow at the Turan Research Center, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank. “At this stage, the first condition has partially materialized. However, it remains unclear whether the bazaar strikes will continue or fade.”

Over the past three years, Iran’s currency has lost two-thirds of its value, and the price of basic food items has risen by 72 per cent since last year. Economic failures are not the sole drivers of the protests; shortages of water and energy, including electricity and gas in major cities, have also fuelled public anger in recent years.

U.S. President Donald Trump, after days of threatening to strike Iran if authorities continued killing their own people, took the matter to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday. Meanwhile, his administration placed several orchestrators of civilian killings on the sanctions list, including Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.

Trump urged protesters this week to “take over your institutions” and said that “help is on its way,” offering little clarity on whether that assistance would be logistical support or a possible military strike.

The Islamic Republic has experienced several waves of mass protests over the years, from the widely known “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement following the killing of Mahsa Amini, to the Green Movement in 2009 after a fraudulent election, whose leaders remain under house arrest by Ayatollah Khamenei.

But this protest, although reportedly calmer and slower as of Friday, differs from previous ones.

“In 2009, it was still based on a disputed election. People were asking, ‘Where is my vote?’ They were still trying to operate within the framework of the Islamic Republic,” said Kaveh Shahrooz, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa. “The message has really radicalized since then. The closest comparison to what’s happening now is the 2022 ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ movement. In both cases, the demand is for the regime to be overthrown.”

Iran has long played a central role in regional instability by building proxy forces across the Middle East, from Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen. The Quds Force, a wing of the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has orchestrated the funding and training of militant groups in the region, including Hamas, the terrorist organization that massacred more than 1,000 Israelis on October 7, 2023.

After decades of shadow warfare, Israel and Iran confronted each other directly in a 12-day war. Israel killed several top Iranian military commanders and struck key military sites, while Iran launched barrages of missiles toward Israel. The conflict ended with U.S. strikes on Iran’s most deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility. These events have significantly weakened Iran both regionally and domestically.

“Iran’s regime was humiliated in the 12-day war. It no longer has the proxies it once relied on, so it can’t project strength,” said Shahroz. “It’s far more financially squeezed, and the economy is in freefall. Donald Trump is in the White House and appears, at least rhetorically, to be taking a much tougher line on Iran’s regime. That’s what makes this protest more significant than those we’ve seen in the past.”

Through diplomatic efforts led mainly by Arab leaders, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt, Trump has been lobbied to refrain from striking Iran. According to The New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also asked Trump to postpone any attack.

Amid fears of mass executions by the regime, Trump hinted that his sources indicated Iran had stopped killing protesters and that executions were stalled. Iran Human Rights reported that over 20,000 people have been imprisoned during the past 20 days of uprising.

As the threat of a U.S. attack has lulled, at least for now, the future of an already weakened Iran, both domestically and internationally, remains uncertain. While the collapse of the regime did not appear imminent on Friday, the question remains whether it can survive much longer.

“I think it really depends on U.S. involvement,” said Shahroz. “If the U.S. gets involved, you could very well see the regime collapse. But if it’s just ordinary people fighting, the regime may be able to hold on for another day. Still, these protests will flare up again. There’s simply no doubt.”

Analysts say defections within the security apparatus are key to regime collapse, but no such signs have emerged so far, despite claims by Iranian opposition figures in exile.

“The large number of protesters killed by security forces demonstrates the continued allegiance of the armed forces to Khamenei and the IRGC,” said Ehsani.

“First is street protests, which we have, but the other two things we don’t have,” said Kaveh. “Second is just the crippling of the economy through strikes, most importantly, the oil sector. We have not seen those. And third would be defections from the security services, and we haven’t seen that either.”

• Trump hits Iran trade partners with tariffs as protest toll soars
• Iranians defiant as protests grow while Ayatollah Khamenei says regime ‘won’t back down’

BEIJING AND OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney will accept a role on U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly formed Gaza “Board of Peace,” according to a senior Canadian government official.

Trump will serve as chairman of the board, which includes U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and former U.K. prime minister Tony Blair, and which is designed to oversee the U.S. peace plan to end the war between Israel and Hamas.

According to the Canadian government official, who briefed reporters travelling with Carney in Beijing, the invitation officially sent on Friday but had been discussed by the two leaders for some time.

The board will provide “strategic oversight, mobilizing international resources, and ensuring accountability as Gaza transitions from conflict to peace and development,”

according to a statement from the White House

on Friday.

The White House statement says that each board member will be responsible for a portfolio related to the “stabilization” and rebuilding of the war-torn region. Some portfolios include governance capacity-building, regional relations, reconstruction, investment attraction, large-scale funding, and capital mobilization.

The Canadian official did not say what Carney’s responsibility on the board will be.

More to come.

National Post

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