It’s been six years since a Canadian premier led a trade mission to China. Much like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s forays into Washington, D.C., to shore up oil exports there, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is heading to China this weekend. It’s expected he’ll wave the province’s flag in support of improved market access for Saskatchewan’s bumper crop of canola.

It’s a tricky situation for the premier to navigate. Trade friction with and between its largest markets — China and the U.S. — has put Canadian canola in the crosshairs.

To be clear, Moe isn’t trying to supplant Ottawa’s role in defusing trade tensions with China; for any deal with China to get done, he acknowledges it will ultimately have to involve the prime minister. To that end, Moe had invited Prime Minister Mark Carney to join him. On Thursday, Carney announced instead that parliamentary secretary Kody Blois would join the Saskatchewan-led delegation to China.

As they head to China, Moe’s team would be well-advised to read Between the Eagle and the Dragon: Managing Canada-China Relations in a Shifting Geopolitical Reality, a report released a few weeks ago by a cross-Canada team of foreign policy wonks.

Politicians are prone to look askance at aspirational policy papers; viewing the lofty rhetoric impractical in the real world of cut-and-thrust politics. Yet, after sitting down to talk through this report with the expert group’s co-chair, Perrin Beatty — a former politician himself, including a short stint as a Progressive Conservative foreign minister — I’m all-the-more convinced this report could be useful to Moe’s delegation.

First off, the report’s authors don’t sugarcoat the retaliatory nature of the tariffs: “The intensification of the U.S.-China rivalry and President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade agenda have irreversibly altered the conditions in which Canada must operate. Canada responded to U.S. pressure and Chinese practices by imposing 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and 25 per cent tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. China retaliated with sweeping tariffs on Canadian canola, pork and seafood exports.”

To make matters worse, in August, nearing the end of a year-long, anti-dumping investigation, Beijing imposed a hefty 75.8 per cent duty on Canadian canola seed — in addition to existing tariffs on canola oil and meal.

Second: Perrin understands Moe’s dilemma. While this is technically federal jurisdiction, Moe has a constituency to represent; Saskatchewan is one of the largest producers of canola in the world. “Even if you look back into the 1960s,” Perrin shares, “at a time when the rest of the world was avoiding them,” we were selling China wheat. Today, he argues, China needs Canadian commodities: our potash, canola and energy.

Third point: what Perrin and his peers are recommending isn’t fuzzy, subtle or wishy-washy. It’s a dramatic change in approach. “We see ourselves as a moral superpower, whose job it is to tell the rest of the world what they’re doing is wrong,” he asserts. To make his point, he shares the head-scratching story of Justin Trudeau’s flubbed negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.

To please Canada, Trudeau convinced all of the other partners to change the name of the free trade deal to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, “then refused to sign it because it wasn’t sufficiently progressive for him,” Perrin sighs. “Then, in a matter of weeks, he filled planes with cabinet ministers and news media to fly to China, ostensibly to sign a trade agreement with China, which he evidently believed would cause the liberalization of China.”  It didn’t.

Another deep sigh from Perrin. “We need to be a bit more worldly in how we manage our international relations,” he grimaces.

“We’re not the Vatican,” I quip. “We’re not,” he agrees with a smile. “We have both interests and principles and we need to advance both of those,” he acknowledges. “But we need to understand the difference between the world as it is and the world we would like to live in,” he suggests. “We have to today deal with the one that we’re living in, whether it’s in dealing with Washington or in dealing with Beijing.”

“There was naiveté,” he continues, “that most of us and certainly every Western nation fell prey to at the time of China’s accession to the WTO (World Trade Organization). It was the belief that if we trade together, if we bring China into global institutions, that they will change their behaviour and conform with international norms.

“That didn’t happen,” he says sombrely. “They’ve moved in the other direction. They are less free, more assertive in terms of military and diplomacy than they were before.” The time for naiveté is over.

As recently as October, Donald Trump talked about putting a wedge between China and Russia in much the same way Richard Nixon was able to do many years ago. But watching what unfolded this past week, with Vladimir Putin in Beijing for a massive Chinese military parade, it’s obvious Trump is driving them closer. Countries historically at each other’s throats are coming into Beijing’s orbit — because they agree on only one thing: that they feel threatened by the approach the Americans are taking.

“We better disabuse ourselves of the false notions about our ability to change the fundamental elements of China as a political entity or a society,” Perrin concludes, “and focus instead on areas in which we have shared interests, in which it would be in China’s interest to have a good relationship with Canada and Canada’s interest to deal with China.”

The poignancy of what Perrin is saying causes me pause; I’ve been waiting my entire career to hear this call for realism, maturity and unapologetic focus on Canada’s national interest from someone steeped not just in the world of politics, but business. Until his tenure ended last August, Perrin was the longstanding CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Redirecting our conversation back to Premier Moe’s trade mission to China, I ask if Perrin would recommend dialling back the 100 per cent tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs by Canada. Moe has not been shy about pointing out the scope and size of the $43-billion canola industry versus the size of the nascent EV industry in Canada.

Perrin pauses to think that over. “Not at this point,” he says. “You know, we are up to our ears right now with the attempt to destroy the auto sector. I think one of the things we need to do is to be more aggressive and be more active in the United States in making a case, from a perspective of American self-interest, that if Trump is successful in destroying the automotive sector in Canada, and with Canada being the single largest export market for American vehicles, it is in America’s self interest to ensure that the integrated automotive sector we have today can continue.”

“What we do have to dial back on,” he adds with a grin, “is the preachiness.”

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OTTAWA — Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said Friday that he wouldn’t join the chorus of Western Canadian political leaders calling on Ottawa to drop tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, saying the issue was beyond his depth.

“The ban on Chinese EVs (is) a little outside of my pay grade,” said Nenshi when asked about the issue at an unrelated press conference in Calgary.

He stressed that Canada needs to engage directly with China’s government to resolve the escalating trade war, which has inflicted heavy damage on farmers in Alberta and other western provinces, but said he “didn’t know” if Chinese electric vehicles would be “part of that deal.”

Nenshi called

in a statement last month

for both Ottawa and Alberta’s provincial government to negotiate with China and roll out supports for farmers affected by the dispute.

China slapped a

76 per cent tariff

on Canadian canola seeds last month, in a move that was widely seen as a response to the 100 per cent surtax Canada placed on

all Chinese electric vehicles last fall

.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall have both called on the federal government

to drop this surtax

, in hopes of resolving the trade dispute.

Saskatchewan NDP leader Carla Beck has also called on Prime Minister Mark Carney to

consider removing the surtax

as a “conciliatory measure” to end the canola tariffs.

Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who recently won a byelection in rural Alberta, also said Friday that he wouldn’t be joining calls for the tariff to be dropped, saying that Chinese electric vehicles still pose too much of a security risk.

“China wants these electric vehicles to be roving surveillance on our streets, and in 10 years, god forbid there’s a conflict and then there’s millions of those vehicles surveilling our population,” Poilievre told reporters in Ottawa.

Poilievre said that the federal government should instead

cancel the $1-billion loan

it recently gave BC Ferries to buy Chinese-built vessels.

China is Canada’s top export market for canola seeds, purchasing some

$4 billion of product last year

. A recent analysis found the seed tariff cost canola growers across Western Canada

$140 million in just two weeks

.

Saskatchewan and Alberta produce roughly 85 per cent of Canada’s canola.

National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com

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OTTAWA

— The president of an association representing automakers says the Canadian government must be “crystal clear” that it intends to keep its surtax on Chinese electric vehicles, as it embarks on a review of the measure. 

Brian Kingston, the p

resident and CEO of the 
Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, which represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, says the existing surtax ensures Canada is aligned with the U.S., which has its own 100 per cent levy on Chinese electric vehicles. 

Allowing China’s electric vehicles into the market also puts the North American industry at a disadvantage, given the billions worth of subsidies Beijing has poured into developing its market, the likes of which “you will never see in North America,” he said. There also remain concerns over China’s labour practices and poor environmental regulations, Kingston added.

“I think the government needs to be crystal clear on what its intention is with respect to maintaining the Chinese (electric vehicle) surtax, particularly given where we stand in our negotiations with the United States,” Kingston said, in an interview Friday.

“The surtax is up for review this month and I’m expecting a clear statement from the government that they intend to continue to keep it in place.”

Canada is facing a more challenging landscape with respect to its action against China, with Western premiers calling on Ottawa to lift its surtax on Chinese electric vehicles. That followed Beijing’s decision to slap a 76 per cent tariff on canola seed, which has been viewed as a direct response to Canada’s 100 per cent surtax on China’s electric vehicles, which was implemented last October.

Advocates from outside the traditional automotive sector also say the federal Liberal government should reconsider its move to allow Canadian consumers more access to Chinese electric vehicles, which are among the cheapest options to purchase.

Declining electric vehicle sales, which have been tied to the government’s cancellation of a $5,000 rebate, fuelled louder calls from the auto industry for Ottawa to cancel its zero-emission vehicle mandate, saying the existing targets were unrealistic to meet.

Prime Minister Mark Carney on Friday announced his government was not moving ahead with the 2026 target for companies and instead was launching a 60-day review to look at how additional “flexibility” could be added to the policy, which is designed to see that all new vehicles sold in Canada are zero-emission by 2035.

Clean Energy Canada, based out of Simon Fraser University, released a statement saying that Carney’s decision creates an opening to provide more options for consumers.

Not only should it look for ways to see more European models brought to Canada and bring back its rebate program, it should also lower “

Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese (electric vehicles) in a way that still balances protection for the auto industry with a healthier car market for consumers, much as Europe has done,” Joanna Kyriazis, the group’s policy and strategic director, said in a statement on Friday. 

Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, told reporters on Friday that any potential loosening of the surtax would have to offer some benefit to Canadian industries and workers, which is currently not the case. 

“I’m not advocating for a loosening of them,” he said, “but I think it’s important that we continue to talk to them.”

“And as much as we don’t like the way that the Chinese have built the industry, we know that’s the future of the industry.”

Volpe

suggested it would be unwise to risk giving up Canada’s market out of pressure from those he called “EV enthusiasts.”

Speaking at his announcement on Friday, Carney said the government would be moving ahead with “new options” to bring in more affordable electric vehicle options.

No further details were provided, but cabinet ministers have said the Liberals were looking for ways to bring back a rebate program.

Asked whether Carney was considering lifting the 100 per cent surtax, the prime minister did not directly say, but said Canada was beginning “intense engagement” with China regarding canola as well as other agriculture and seafood products.

“I’m sure those discussions will branch out, but it’s too early to come to any conclusions on those.”

A spokeswoman for Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne confirmed to National Post on Thursday that “o

fficials are currently undertaking work” on the upcoming review, which would entail assessing China’s labour practices as well as the scope and rates of the surtaxes to ensure they “remain appropriate.” 

Besides the surtax on Chinese electric vehicles, which was introduced by former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Carney’s predecessor also implemented a 25 per cent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum. Both surtaxes were introduced last October.

Nova Scotia MP Kody Blois, whom Carney named as his parliamentary secretary, is set to join Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe on a trade mission to China starting Saturday.

Moe told reporters on Thursday that any resolution to the tariff on canola would have to be reached by Carney and China’s President

Xi 
Jinping. 

Saskatchewan is home to the biggest share of Canada’s canola industry, followed by Alberta and Manitoba.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has also called on the federal government to reconsider its surtax on Chinese electric vehicles in an effort to end the trade dispute.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who was recently elected as an MP in Alberta through a byelection, told reporters in Ottawa on Friday that he “respectfully” disagrees with Moe’s call for the surtax to be lifted.

He said China’s electric vehicles would act as “roving surveillance vehicles” on Canadian streets, referring to national security risks that have been expressed regarding the access Beijing could have to certain Chinese technologies operating in North America.

Instead, Poilievre said, the federal government ought to cancel the $1 billion loan the Canada Infrastructure Bank granted to BC Ferries to purchase four ships from a Chinese shipbuilder.

–

With files from Christopher Nardi and Catherine Levesque 

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Mark Carney has said

no to scrapping temporary foreign workers program, after

Pierre Poilievre called on the federal governmen

t to eliminate it due to spike in Canadian youth unemployment rates, saying “

it’s time for Canadian jobs for Canadian workers.

”

The federal opposition party had picked up a somewhat unexpected ally in B.C. Premier David Eby, who told the Canadian Press on Thursday that the program should “

be cancelled or significantly reformed

.”

The NDP Premier said some of the province’s fiscal challenges are tied to “very high unemployment rates” among youths as a result of the TFWP and the international student program.

Meanwhile, the prime minister maintained the program has a role in our system but that it needs to be more focussed. “When I talk to businesses around the country their No. 1 issue is tariffs, and their No. 2 issue is access to temporary foreign workers,” Carney told reporters.

But what is the temporary foreign worker program? And why does it need to be fixed or eliminated? Here’s what to know.

What is the temporary foreign worker program?

The TFWP allows Canadian employers to hire foreign nationals for temporary work when no qualified Canadians or permanent residents are available.

Employers can hire individuals through one of six streams: high-wage workers, global talent stream, in-home caregivers and foreign academics, low-wage workers and seasonal agriculture workers. The latter two represent the bulk of TFWP permits issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), the government agencies that operate the program.

How did the program change under the Liberal government?

After going mostly unchanged for almost 30 years, the program’s scope was expanded under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government in 2002 with a low-skilled pilot project allowing people to be hired for lower-skilled occupations that dominate the current program.

After reports of employer abuse and high unemployment, the system was

overhauled in 2013

to require a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) and place restrictions on how many workers an employer could use.

LMIA is an application to ESDC by an employer that shows a need in the labour market and proves they can afford to pay the worker.

Before he was elected as Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau had criticized the program.

“Temporary foreign workers program lowers Canadian wages and exploits vulnerable people,” Justin Trudeau, then leader of the Liberal Party, posted on X in 2014, tagging prime minister Stephen Harper’s governing Conservatives. “It needs to be fixed.”

#CPC temporary foreign workers program lowers Canadian wages and exploits vulnerable people. It needs to be fixed.

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) May 6, 2014

But when COVID-19 led to labour shortages, the Trudeau government loosened the rules to allow higher caps on low-wage hires from 10 to 20 per cent — 30 per cent in some sectors — and extended the maximum employment length from one year to two.

Ottawa reversed those regulations last summer and said it would begin refusing to process LMIAs in the low-wage stream for major cities with unemployment over six per cent, excluding seasonal and non-seasonal jobs in food sectors, as well as construction and health care.

Wage thresholds, used to determine the need for an LMIA, were increased in June.

How many temporary foreign workers are in Canada?

According to

Statistics Canada

, TFWP and the IMP, “have expanded rapidly in recent years, with the number of temporary residents working in Canada more than doubling in a decade, rising from 356,000 in 2011 to 845,000 in 2021.”

The agency also notes that the share of temporary foreign workers arriving under the TFWP is considerably less than those arriving under the IMP, and that it’s fallen from just over one in three in 2011 (35 per cent) to one in six in 2021 (15 per cent).

In Feburary 2024,

ThinkPol

reported data that showed the number of TWFP permits issued steadily increasing since 2019, when 73,355 were awarded, almost 20,000 more than the previous year. By 2022, that number had ballooned to a record 119,235, only to be eclipsed in 2023

when IRCC reported

184,008.

A Statistics Canada study of 2021 tax data showed that approximately 1 in 25 people working in Canada in 2021 were temporary foreign workers (4.1 per cent), up from 1 in 50 a decade earlier (1.9 per cent).

Why is the program linked to rise in unemployment rates?

Poilievre cited Statistics Canada data that shows youth (15-24 years old) unemployment hit 14.6 per cent in July, the highest since September 2010, not including the pandemic years. The employment rate for the cohort was at 53.6 per cent in July, the lowest since November 1988, also not including 2020 and 2021.

Poilievre said the majority of program participants work low-wage positions, putting them in direct competition with Canada’s youth and working class and ultimately driving down wages for everyone.

“The Liberals promised they would cap the temporary foreign worker program at 82,000, but in the first six months, they’ve already handed out 105,000 permits,”

he said at a news conference

.

LIVE: End the Temporary Foreign Worker Program https://t.co/HIpEhxJ4Df

— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) September 3, 2025

“If they do the same number of permits for temporary foreign workers in the next six months that they did in the last six, they will break the record again with over 200,000 temporary foreign workers coming in to take jobs when our own young people are facing record unemployment.”

Poilievre said he wasn’t trying to demonize the workers, who he said “are being taken advantage of by Liberal corporate elites who want to use them to drive down wages.”

“The Liberals have to answer why they’re shutting our own youths out of jobs and replacing them with low-wage temporary foreign workers from poor countries who are ultimately being exploited.”

Immigration Minister Lena Diab wasn’t available for comment, but a spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) — which oversees the program in conjunction with Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) — said some of what Poilievre said was “inaccurate or incomplete.”

The 82,000, they said in an email, represents the number of new individuals expected to arrive under the TFWP and the 105,000 includes permit extensions for people already in Canada.

“They do not represent new arrivals to the country.”

The spokesperson said 33,722 new workers came to Canada via TWFP in the first six months of 2025, accounting for “roughly 40 per cent of the total volume expected this year.”

When combined with the 85,512 people admitted through the International Mobility Program (IMP) — a separate stream —

125,903 fewer

new temporary workers arrived between January and June 2025 compared to the same time in 2024.

The Conservatives are proposing an immediate end to the program with no new visas issued for temporary foreign workers and winding down existing permits “until the program is entirely eliminated.”

When did the temporary foreign worker program start?

Originally called the Non-Immigrant Employment Authorization Program (NIEAP) when it was formally established in 1973, TFWP allowed employers in non-agricultural and domestic sectors to bring in foreign workers where no Canadians were available.

Prior to the NIEAP, Canada had a bilateral agreement in place with Jamaica, and later other nations, to bring in foreign workers under the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) founded in 1966 and which exists within the TFWP today.

How does the temporary foreign worker program operate?

Employers seeking to hire a TFW must first obtain a positive LMIA from ESDC, who will evaluate regional labour data, wages, working conditions and recruitment efforts, after which it can offer the job.

The potential worker then has to apply for a work permit, usually for a specific employer. All that’s left is for the worker to show up and do the job for the permit’s duration.

What have critics said about the temporary foreign worker program?

In 2023, United Nations special rapporteur Tomoya Obokata was invited by the federal government to study the program. After visiting major cities over two weeks, he concluded that the TFWP is “a breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery.”

“I am deeply disturbed by the accounts of exploitation and abuse shared with me by migrant workers,”

he said

.

“I urge the Government to bring forward legislation requiring Canadian companies to implement mandatory human rights due diligence, and expand the independence, powers, and mandate of the (Canadian Ombudsperson for Responsible Enterprise).”

My end of mission statement is available in full. My sincere gratitude to the Government of 🇨🇦 for its invitation, courtesy and full support, as well as all stakeholders I met during my mission. I look forward to continuing our dialogue. https://t.co/3f7HiStCIm

— UN Special Rapporteur Tomoya Obokata (@TomObokata) September 6, 2023

As reported by Financial Post and multiple other media outlets, some employers and some immigration agents exploit the system by illegally selling LMIAs to prospective immigrants. The asking price could be anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000, but immigration consultant Kanwar Sierah told the Post he’s “heard of LMIAs being sold for $70,000.”

Bloomberg reported

that a government-commissioned investigation it viewed found some people were being charged up to $180,000.

Under the

Immigration and Refugee Protection Act

, “No person shall … import, export or deal in such a document.”

In 2021, Canada’s Auditor General Karen Hogan issued a report that found

Ottawa failed to protect the workers during the pandemic

because ESDC inspections “provided little assurance that the health and safety of temporary foreign workers were protected.”

“These findings point to a systemic problem across the department’s inspection regime that needs immediate attention,” Hogan said at the time. “It’s long past time to fix the situation for temporary foreign workers in Canada.”

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OTTAWA — One of Prime Minister Carney’s top advisors was hedging his bets against the Liberal government’s oil and gas emissions cap months before it was announced in late 2023, according to documents obtained through access-to-information.

Correspondence and briefing materials from early to mid-2023 show that then deputy finance minister Michael Sabia sought guidance from his staff on “potential off-ramps” from the cap, presumably to allow the government a graceful exit from the policy..

“I’m writing to provide a status update on the (Deputy Minister’s) recent request for analysis on the oil and gas emissions cap. We understand (he) has requested two things: 1) fiscal impacts of the cap; and 2) potential off-ramps,” reads one email sent on April 28.

The email was addressed to two associate deputy ministers, with two lower-level analysts also receiving copies.

An undated and heavily redacted briefing note titled “Oil and Gas Cap Off-Ramps” also appears in the 45-page package of materials.
 

Sabia left the Finance Canada that September to lead Hydro-Québec and was tapped by Carney this June as

Canada’s top civil servant

.

The Liberal government announced
it was moving ahead
with the emissions cap in December 2023, fulfilling
a 2021 campaign promise
.

Draft regulations released in late 2024 set the cap at 35 per cent below 2019 levels, starting between 2030 and 2032. Oil and gas companies who exceed their emissions quotas could be fined up to $6 million for a first offense and $12 million for subsequent offences.

Officials from Finance Canada and the Prime Minister’s Office declined to provide further information about what off-ramps were presented to Sabia or say whether any of said off-ramps are still under discussion.

Sources close to the Liberal government said the emissions cap was a “live” issue and likely a topic of discussion at

this week’s cabinet planning forum

in Toronto.

Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz said the subtext of Sabia’s request was clear.

“This type of email, looking for off-ramps, suggests that the federal government knew all along that the emissions cap was a non-starter,” said Schulz.
 

“It shows that you have senior officials within the Liberal government knowing that this is not going to work, which confirms what the data has been telling us all along.”

Independent studies by Deloitte, the Parliamentary Budget Officer and the Conference Board of Canada found that the cap could cost billions in revenue and kill tens of thousands of jobs, with losses concentrated in Western Canada.
 

Energy analyst Heather Exner-Pirot said that softening commodities prices have blocked off at least one potential off-ramp.

“If you’d asked me three moths ago, I’d have told you that the
‘grand bargain’ on carbon capture
was a possible off-ramp, in terms of something you could swap the cap out for … but I just don’t see how that works when oil is at $60 a barrel,” said Exner-Pirot.

Exner-Pirot said that one saving grace for Carney is that the regulations are still in their draft form.

“The best off-ramp on the table right now is to just not finalize the regs,” said Exner-Pirot.

Carney is expected to make a major announcement relating to Canada’s

economic competitiveness on Friday

. Some analysts have speculated that the emissions cap and other

Trudeau era climate policies

could be on the chopping block.

National Post

rmohamed@postmedia.com

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.