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Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at an event in Montreal,  Nov. 14, 2025.

OTTAWA — As Canada prepares to enter 2026 which could see the Parti Québécois (PQ) take power in Quebec and enact its promise of a third referendum, it remains unclear what, if anything, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government intends to do about it.

The PQ has been riding high in the polls in Quebec for the past two years and could aspire to form a majority government after the October election. Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has vowed to hold a referendum in his first mandate — before 2030.

Liberal sources told the National Post that former Quebec lieutenant Steven Guilbeault had started to map out a federal strategy to respond to the PQ, but it was very early stages.

“He was starting to see what their posture should be. Should they have some messages? Should they make some (media) appearances? If so, what kind of appearances? So, he was still at the beginning of the elaboration of a strategy,” said one source.

But Guilbeault resigned from his cabinet positions in late November, including his role as Quebec lieutenant. A spokesperson for his office said he was unavailable for an interview.

His successor, Joël Lightbound, is expected to settle into his role in the new year and to take the lead on all things Quebec — including the PQ. A spokesperson for Lightbound also refused an interview, citing a lack of time.

But sources described Lightbound as having a more “discreet” approach, not one that would be outright confrontational and could direct too much attention toward Ottawa.

Jonathan Kalles, who served as Quebec adviser to then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and is now a vice president at McMillan Vantage, said Carney’s team will need to figure out who are his main spokespeople in terms of responding to the PQ.

“Most important, that it be coordinated and not individual ministers or members making comments without being part of a larger plan,” he warned.

Back in November, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly accused the PQ leader of wanting

to throw Quebec “into the arms of Donald Trump”

after he called for a “closer relationship” with the United States if Quebec were to become an independent country.

Quebec Liberal MP Angelo Iacono went even further a day later, claiming that

an independent Quebec would be at risk of being invaded

by the U.S.

Kalles said there will also be moments when St-Pierre Plamondon might say or do things that could damage his electoral chances, and the federal government “would be wise to pick and choose the moments when to respond and when not to respond.”

One of those moments was when St-Pierre Plamondon called out

the cultural sector in the province as being “disloyal” to Quebec

after some of them congratulated Marc Miller’s appointment as federal culture minister. The PQ leader ultimately apologized for his comments.

The PQ subsequently dropped four points in a Léger-Québecor poll

— from 39 per cent of decided voters to 35 — despite the Quebec Liberal Party being embroiled in scandal.

“That’s clearly a result of people reacting to (St-Pierre Plamondon)’s attacks on the cultural milieu, which were over the top and ridiculous,” said Kalles.

Michel Breau, associate vice president at the Wellington Dupont Public Affairs, said Carney’s team would be wise to weigh their efforts made to alleviate the threat of Western alienation versus the real threat of Quebec electing a separatist government in 2026.

“There’s already been stretches of time when the Quebec government felt it was prepared to suddenly run an independent country’s government. That isn’t the case in Alberta,” he said.

Breau, who worked for Quebec Liberal ministers for a decade, said events such as Guilbeault’s departure from cabinet because of the Alberta MOU and

naming investment banker Mark Wiseman as ambassador to the U.S. despite Quebec opposition

could eventually add up.

“You can start to have a little bit of a drip, drip, drip, in terms of stuff that seeps a little bit, I think, into the woodwork of, does Mark Carney really get Quebec?”

 Joël Lightbound, above, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new Quebec lieutenant, is said to be taking a more “discreet” approach to the job than his predecessor, Steven Guilbeault, did.

The federal government is not “blind” to the fact that the PQ is leading in the polls in Quebec at the moment, said one source close to Carney’s thinking speaking on a not-for-attribution basis.

However, they remain convinced that the Quebec election is “anybody’s game” — pointing to the unpredictable turn of events at the federal level in 2025. They also said that the uncertainty around the CUSMA review in 2026 could sway Quebecers to stay within Canada.

In any case, the federal public service is likely quietly working in the background to prepare for all scenarios — including a majority PQ win.

In an interview, former clerk of the Privy Council Michael Wernick said he thinks “pretty soon, it would be time to start doing that quiet prep work.”

“The prime minister’s focus is going to be pulled mostly to Canada-U.S. stuff and trade and security and building those houses and infrastructure projects and all that kind of stuff. So, this could become quite a drain of focus and attention,” he said.

Wernick, who was assistant deputy minister at the department now known as Intergovernmental Affairs during the 1995 referendum, said the federal government will “always have to find a working relationship with the federalists within Quebec.”

For now, the whiff of scandal has cast a chill between Liberals in Ottawa and Quebec City.

Publicly, most federal Liberals are steering clear of provincial politics — seeing that their former colleague, Pablo Rodriguez, recently resigned as leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec after facing a criminal investigation by the province’s anti-corruption police.

At an unrelated announcement on Dec. 16, Lightbound even contradicted a reporter for suggesting the Liberal parties of Canada and Quebec were somewhat related.

“It is neither the little brother nor the big brother. There is no connection between both parties, and there hasn’t been a connection for decades,” he said.

Privately, the federal Liberals are keeping a close eye on the person who could succeed Rodriguez as leader of the provincial party: Charles Milliard, former head of the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce.

Philippe J. Fournier, founder of

the polling aggregator website Qc125

, said that while Milliard has no political experience, it might work in his favour against political opponents who might struggle to find ways to undermine him or uncover “skeletons in the closet.”

Even though the PQ has been steadily polling in first place, Fournier predicts it is too early to tell what might happen come October given how divided the Quebec electorate is.

“There is no precedent. … So, I believe it is completely unpredictable, even if the PQ is the favourite,” he said.

National Post

calevesque@postmedia.com

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A man whose teenage daughter was kidnapped on Christmas Day found the girl by using his cellphone’s parental controls to track her location.

A teenage girl police said was kidnapped on Christmas Day in Texas was located by her father using his phone’s parental controls.

The 15-year-old girl from Porter, an unincorporated community north of Houston, was reported missing when she didn’t return from walking her dog at the usual time, leading her parents to become concerned, the Montgomery County Sheriff’s Office explained in

a news release

.

Her father used parental controls to track the location of his daughter’s phone to a “secluded, partially wooded area” about three kilometres away in adjacent Harris County.

Police said he found her and the dog “inside a maroon-coloured pickup truck with a partially nude” man. He helped his daughter escape and contacted the police.

The girl told police the man had threatened her with a knife when he abducted her from the street.

With the help of witnesses at the scene, police located the truck and identified the driver, a 23-year-old Porter resident. He was located, taken into custody and has been charged with aggravated kidnapping and indecency with a child.

He’s being held in the county jail without bond while the major crimes unit continues its investigation.

Under the state’s penal code, a conviction on the kidnapping charge, a first-degree felony, carries a prison term of five to 99 years or life imprisonment and/or a fine up to $10,000, according to

Dunham Law. 

Cases involving indecency with a child, meanwhile, are a second-degree felony punishable by between two and a maximum of 20 years in prison and/or a fine up to $10,000 if found guilty, per defence lawyer

E. Jason Leach

.

The family, who have not been publicly identified, told CBS News affiliate

KHOU

off-camera that they do not know the suspect.

“Christmas is a day meant for joy, but this man chose to shatter that joy by targeting a child,” Sheriff Wesley Doolittle stated.

“I am incredibly proud of our deputies and detectives who worked tirelessly to ensure this dangerous predator was swiftly apprehended and is now off our streets.”

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Few could have predicted that former prime minister Justin Trudeau, left, would be romantically involved with international pop-star Katy Perry in the months after he left office.

There were several clear signs that many Canadians were growing tired of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and Liberal leader as fall turned to winter in 2024.

He’d

lost a pair of byelections

and the

support of the NDP

, was facing

mounting dissent within his own caucus

, and watched as his

approval ratings plunged

and Pierre Poilievre’s soared. Things turned from bad to worse when long-time senior minister

Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned

, citing policy friction with Trudeau.

The already beleaguered prime minister was even told to

“please get the f— out of B.C.”

by a woman who recognized him at a ski resort last Christmas. (Trudeau replied with a chuckle and wished the woman “a wonderful day.”)

Suffice it to say, there were plenty of red flags and Trudeau, to his credit, seemed to notice them. He

tendered his resignation

in January and handed the reins to Mark Carney in March.

 Mark Carney, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, embraces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after being announced the winner at the Liberal leadership convention in Ottawa, on Sunday, March 9, 2025.

And while other past prime ministers have largely quietly exited the spotlight to seek out whatever degree of a private citizen’s life is available to them, nine months after his departure, Trudeau can’t seem to stay out of the limelight.

But unlike those prime ministers before him who found “fame,” per se, through their tenure as the head of government, Trudeau has been famous since birth.

“When he was born, this was like the biggest front page news in the country,” Nelson Wiseman, political science professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, told National Post in an interview.

“Whereas normally, I think it would have been noted, it wouldn’t have been as big a thing as it was because not only was he the son of Pierre Trudeau, around which a mystique had already developed, but Trudeau’s wife was so young.”

The late Trudeau and former prime minister was 51 when he married the 22-year-old Margaret Sinclair in 1971 and Justin, their first of three children together, was born on Christmas Day that year.

He spent most of his early youth living at 24 Sussex Drive and accompanied his father, often with brothers Alexandre “Sacha” and Michel, to various events and appearances, forcing all of them into the public eye.

 Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau walks off a boat in Port Alberni, B.C., while holding a four-year-old Justin Trudeau in May 1976.

After a low-key adolescence and early adulthood thanks to his father’s departure from office in 1984, he returned to the public eye in his late 20s when he delivered

the eulogy for his father in 2000

.

By 2008, and despite previously

telling CTV in 1995 that he would never enter politics

, he ran and was narrowly elected for the first time in Montreal. The rest is Canadian history as the 44-year-old former school teacher became the nation’s second-youngest prime minister in 2015 and the first sired by a previous prime minister. (His father’s brief successor, Joe Clark, became the youngest at 39 in 1979, but served less than a year before his Progressive Conservative government was defeated by the elder Trudeau in 1980.)

His inherited fame is a view also endorsed by Acadia political science professor Alex Marland, who says to understand Trudeau “is to look at him first and foremost as a celebrity.”

“Once you look at him as a celebrity, you start to understand him in a very different way than other prime ministers, other politicians,” Marland told National Post.

Whereas other prime ministers were “just another citizen” before being elected to the highest office in Canada, Trudeau’s “normal is as a celebrity.”

Marland, without opining on the specifics, added that some of the things that have put Trudeau back in the headlines since his somewhat unceremonious exit “are consistent with that theory.”

The Monday after Carney’s ascension, Trudeau took a trip to Canadian Tire to shop for utensils and appliances,

sharing his outing on Instagram

, one of the social media platforms he had strategically embraced throughout his political career.

 Justin Trudeau posted a selfie on Instagram, showing him while he went shopping at Canadian Tire on March 17, 2025. It was his first post since Mark Carney became Canada’s new prime minister.

While his predecessor, Stephen Harper, governed during the advent of social media, it wasn’t a tool employed by the Conservatives at the time.

“There was never anybody that he ran into that he wasn’t willing to take a selfie with,” Wiseman said of Trudeau. “In fact, a relative of mine has a selfie of herself and him — I’m not even sure she’s a Liberal.”

Outside of campaigning for his replacement in Papineau, Que., Trudeau was mostly off the radar post-politics until he showed up to King Charles II’s throne speech in May wearing

a pair of green and orange Adidas sneakers

with his two-piece suit. The casual attire in the presence of royalty reportedly led to some

“outrage” in the U.K.

In the weeks that followed, he shared images from individual vacations he took with the three children he shares with ex-wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau — Xavier, 18, Ella Grace, 16, and Hadrien, 11.

Since their separation after 18 years of marriage in 2023, the former couple appear to have maintained a co-parenting relationship, even vacationing and spending some holidays together, including as recently as

this Thanksgiving.

 A view of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Adidas shoes as he arrives ahead of the Speech from the Throne by King Charles on May 27, 2025, in Ottawa.

Amidst those moments, however, came an event that could not have been on anyone’s 2026 Bingo card: Trudeau and Grammy-nominated international pop star Katy Perry were spotted having dinner together at Le Violon, a swanky Montreal restaurant. He also accompanied his daughter to Perry’s sold-out show at the Bell Centre.

The July revelation followed up with more

Trudeau and Perry sightings

: kissing atop her yacht in a California harbour, a date caught by Paris paparazzi and Trudeau joining her on tour in Europe.

They became “Instagram official” in early December when Perry

shared photos and video of herself and Trudeau in Tokyo

, where her world tour just ended. On the same trip, the pair

dined with former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida

and his wife, Yuko.

Marland reasons Trudeau’s inherent celebrity status will mean the interest may never wane.

“When we see a photograph of him having dinner with an American pop singer in Montreal, is that because he made it known that he was there? Or is that because he actually wanted his privacy,” he pondered.

 From the left, former prime minister Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry pose for a photo in front of a Christmas tree with Yuko and Fumio Kishida, the former Japanese prime minister.

It’s not clear if Trudeau and his ex-wife spent time together this Christmas. He shared

a single photo with the kids

on his social media, while Grégoire Trudeau

shared an image of herself staring into a sunset

in a post that mentions neither Trudeau nor her children.

“I welcome this new year the way I welcome the horizon — with trust, open arms, and a heart that knows its own rhythm,” she wrote. “I’m choosing presence over pressure, depth over noise, and the quiet courage it takes to stay true to myself.”

Perry, meanwhile, was silent on social media over the holidays.

Professionally speaking, Trudeau hasn’t had nearly as much scrutiny as he has personally and romantically.

He said nothing of his post-political intentions in his

resignation speech

, nor in the one he delivered at the

Liberal leadership convention

, but he did offer some candid insight in a 2023 interview with

Quebec news station Noovo.

“I see myself working with young people, going back to teaching or as a professor in university, a speaker, maybe on technology in relation to our democracy,” he said when asked specifically about life after public office.

“I’m excited for the next chapter, but not right away.”

Not unlike other politicians before him, part of that involves speaking engagements and Trudeau is represented by the Speaker Booking Agency, which quotes his

in-person appearances starting at $100,000

.

It’s not immediately clear how many he’s booked through the firm, but his first known and documented speech came when he

delivered the keynote address

at the 26th World Knowledge Forum in September. About a month later, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs awarded him the 2025 Global Leader honours.

As for what his “next chapter” will include, Wiseman said Trudeau is unique in that he’s still a relatively young man, making him the youngest at time of departure (53) since Arthur Meighen in 1926. (John Sparrow David Thompson, Canada’s fourth prime minister, was just 49 when his term ended in 1894.)

Harper, meanwhile, was only 56 when he was voted out of office on Trudeau’s first majority win as Liberal leader in 2015, but the former prime minister was anything but a media darling during his two terms.

Marland said Harper is the only modern leader to whom Trudeau can be compared, but there’s a huge contrast between the two.

“Harper really didn’t seem to enjoy the camera, even when he was prime minister. He was far more interested in policy and almost used the media when he needed to,” he said.

“The same thing has happened when he’s out of power, that he’s really not appearing a lot in the news. It’s much more selective and careful.”

 Former prime ministers Justin Trudeau, left, and Stephen Harper share a laugh ahead of King Charles delivering the speech from the throne in the Senate in Ottawa on Tuesday, May 27, 2025.

After leaving office, Harper returned to Alberta, where he launched a global strategic business consulting firm, co-founded an investment fund, chaired various organizations, and did speaking engagements around the world,

according to the province.

Wiseman isn’t convinced Trudeau will follow suit.

“My feeling is that Trudeau doesn’t need the money and he doesn’t care that much about that,” he suggested.

While Trudeau’s precise net worth is unclear, he stands to make up to $8.4 million in pension payments, according to the

Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation. 

Other past prime ministers who’ve pivoted to consulting include Jean Chrétien, Brian Mulroney and Trudeau’s father, all of whom did so at law firms.

 Pierre Trudeau is seen walking to his office in Montreal in 1992.

Whatever Trudeau chooses to do with his time in the years to come, Marland doesn’t think a normal life is in the cards.

“It was already done for him,” he said. “He could never ever be just another citizen.”

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Igor Makarov has failed to convince the Federal Court of Appeal to lift Canadian sanctions imposed on the billionaire and former Russian oligarch.

A billionaire and former Russian oligarch who renounced his Russian citizenship in the summer of 2023 has failed in his bid to get Canadian sanctions against him lifted.

Igor Viktorovich Makarov’s case wound up at the Federal Court of Appeal after Canada added the oil and gas magnate’s name to the sanctions list aimed at punishing those associated with Russia’s war on Ukraine. Canada reportedly froze $145 million of Makarov’s assets in 2022.

“Mr. Makarov became a billionaire from his business activities in Russia, some of which were state assisted, or state associated, with connections, some close, to Russian governmental officials. Thus, the Governor in Council added him to the sanctions list,” Justice David Stratas wrote in a recent decision out of Toronto from the three-judge panel.

Makarov

founder of the ARETI International Group and once a major shareholder in

Calgary-based Spartan Delta Corp. —

 had asked Canada’s then foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly to remove him from the list, but his request was refused.

He took his case to the federal court and lost, then appealed.

“We must dismiss Mr. Makarov’s appeal,” Stratas wrote.

 Canada’s former foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly.

Many of Makarov’s “submissions use the language of legal principle,” said the judge.

“But, in reality, Mr. Makarov asks us to reweigh the evidence and redo the Minister’s job. Indeed, Mr. Makarov goes further. He asks us to make our own decision and impose it on the Minister. Under reasonableness review and the granting of remedies, this is not our normal task.”

Makarov is a former professional cyclist and member of the USSR national cycling team. In March 2023, Forbes pegged his net worth at US$2.2 billion.

Joly provided “ample and detailed” support for her decision to keep Makarov on the sanctions list, Stratas said in his decision dated Dec. 9.

“Mr. Makarov was heavily involved in Russian gas sectors through his company, ITERA. He was connected to Russian oligarchs and controllers of Russian state-sponsored and state-owned companies,” said the judge.

“As well, he was a senior sports official in Russia and had dealings with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.”

Makarov, 63, is now a citizen of Cyprus.

According to Forbes, he founded Itera, Russia’s first independent gas company.

“In the late 1990s, Itera was Russia’s main exporter of gas from Turkmenistan, where Makarov was born,” the magazine reported.

”In 2012 Itera entered into a joint venture with Rosneft, the state-controlled oil company; the next year, Rosneft bought out Itera for $2.9 billion.”

Makarov was appointed as an energy adviser to the president of Turkmenistan in 2019.

Makarov “argued that he is no longer an associate of the Russian regime,” Stratas said.

“He says he was forced to sell his oil and gas business, ITERA; he renounced his Russian citizenship; his relationship with certain figures was adversarial. He also says he has never been politically involved and that he does not currently support President Vladimir Putin. He says he has spoken against the Ukraine war and has made humanitarian contributions to vulnerable Ukranians.”

But Joly wasn’t buying it.

“The Minister considered Mr. Makarov’s attempts to distance himself from the Russian regime to be superficial, not meaningful. The Minister found that nothing really changed between the decision to list Mr. Makarov, which was supported by a constellation of evidence of association, and his application to be delisted,” said the appeal decision.

“The Minister did not consider Mr. Makarov’s renunciation of citizenship a genuine effort to separate himself from the regime. He had not publicly denounced the Government of Russia or President Vladimir Putin, something that might help to rebut his past associations and activities. As well, the Minister found the extent of Mr. Makarov’s humanitarian efforts difficult to substantiate. The Minister considered the purposes of this sanctions regime, drew upon an appreciation of international affairs, noted the decisions of other states to sanction Mr. Makarov, and concluded that Mr. Makarov had not made out a case for delisting.”

The appeal court sided with Joly.

“The Minister’s decision was made based on evidence existing at the time of this decision,” Stratas said.

“If there is new evidence such that the legislative threshold of a ‘material change in circumstances’ is met, Mr. Makarov can apply again to the Minister and the Minister must consider the matter afresh.”

New Zealand removed Makarov from its Russia Sanctions Register this past September, joining the United Kingdom and Australia in reversing measures initially imposed in 2022.

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A trail sign at the Sunshine Village Ski Resort in Banff. A woman died on Saturday, possibly by asphyxiation, after falling into deep, fresh snow while skiing the Banff Avenue green run.

A woman who fell into a pocket of deep, soft, fresh snow while skiing in Banff on Saturday may have died by suffocation, according to a local ski resort.

The victim was later identified by her brother as 47-year-old Farah Merchant of Toronto.

“She was a loving and devoted mother to her son, Liam, a cherished daughter, sister, aunt, cousin, friend,”

Faiz Merchant wrote in a Facebook post

confirmed by National Post. “She had a kind soul and touched so many lives with her love, warmth, and compassion. She will be deeply missed by all who knew her.”

The ski patrol team at the Sunshine Village Ski Resort in Alberta responded to a call about an unresponsive skier on Banff Avenue, a green run in the lower mountain area, in the afternoon and arrived within three minutes, as reported by the

Rocky Mountain Outlook.

With wide, gentle and groomed slopes, green runs are considered the easiest terrain for skiers.

Another skier tried to help Merchant after witnessing her fall, said Kendra Scurfield, the resort’s director of brand and communications, in a statement to the Outlook.

The ski patrol spent two hours trying to resuscitate her to no avail, she said.

Scurfield said it appeared the woman didn’t fall into a tree well — an area around the base of a tree where unconsolidated snow creates a hazard similar to quicksand — but still ended up in a “deep snow immersion” situation.

“It looked like she had fallen into deep snow and there may have been either asphyxiation due to the snow or cardiac arrest,” Scurfield said.

According to

Back Country Skiing Canada,

snow immersion suffocation (SIS) can occur when someone falls into deep, loose snow and becomes immobilized, usually in a head-first position.

“In an inverted position you can become trapped under the snow. Breathing becomes difficult as the loose snow packs in around you.

“If a partner is not there for immediate rescue, the skier or rider may die very quickly from suffocation — in many cases, he or she can die as quickly as someone can drown in water.”

It’s not clear if Merchant was skiing with a partner at the time.

The woman’s body was sent to Calgary for autopsy, the RCMP told the Outlook.

 

The resort also extended its sympathies to her family.

“We understand how hard it must be for them, and we’d also like to thank our ski patrol team for their work,” Scrufield stated.

On Dec. 26, Sunshine Village said it had already received 258 centimetres, making it the fifth snowiest month in its recorded history. Another 11 centimetres fell the night before Merchant’s death.

National Post has contacted the resort and the RCMP for comment and more information.

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President Donald Trump speaks at his Mar-a-Lago club, Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — ‘Tis the season for renaming – everything from a cultural hub dedicated to a beloved slain president to new destroyers to 2025 itself. No, President Donald Trump hasn’t labeled the year with his name, but his U.S. Trade Representative, in a new op-ed, just dubbed it the “year of the tariff.”

“The year 2025 will be remembered as the year of the tariff, regardless of one’s economic ideology,” Jamieson Greer wrote.  “International trade is neither good nor bad — it just is. The real question is whether trade patterns serve the national interest. For President Donald Trump and his administration, that means a trade policy that accelerates re-industrialisation.”

This year, Trump declared national emergencies related to fentanyl trafficking and the trade deficit as justification for his tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), and litigants — and businesses and consumers around the globe — are awaiting a Supreme Court ruling over whether these tariffs are constitutional.

The high court fast-tracked litigation to hear oral arguments this autumn, and a verdict is now expected early next year. So will 2026 be the year the IEEPA tariffs die, and if so, what will it mean for Canada and Trump’s trade war?

Reading the signals

While the administration has said it expects the court to rule in the president’s favour, most trade experts do not.

Clark Packard, a research fellow in the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, believes there are indications the Supreme Court will rule against the president.

“I think there’s a skepticism on separation of powers grounds — that the president shouldn’t have this much (power),” Packard said, noting how the justices have referred to a tariff as a tax.

“If it’s a tax, then that power resides with Congress to set those rates.”

Packard noted that the betting markets see the decision going this way, but he acknowledged the court might rule in favour of Trump.

Andrew Hale, a senior policy fellow at Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., doesn’t see any chance of a win for the White House.

“It’s a foregone conclusion,” he said. “They’re going to vote down IEEPA.”

Hale noted the economy has begun to feel the effects of the tariffs and that it will only get worse. Republicans, no matter how loyal they are to Trump, are getting burned by tariffs, he said, noting how he’s even heard from a Heritage Foundation donor and Republican fundraiser about having to lay off people because of the costs of the tariffs.

When asked to consider the court ruling for the president, Hale said he couldn’t even try.

“I can’t even envision that,” he said. “It’s so fundamentally illegal, and I think that the way the justices of the Supreme Court were questioning the lawyers for the administration, (suggests opposition to it).”

Packard, on the other hand, could, and he suggested that it would be bad news for America’s trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico.

Winning and losing

“If the administration wins this case, my general sense is that these will serve as a baseline for tariffs,” Packard said, suggesting that today’s rates would grow.

With the renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) getting underway next summer, Packard also noted that continued IEEPA tariffs would be bad news for Canadian and Mexican negotiators.

“It sort of poisons the well in terms of those negotiations,” he said, because “the president could pivot pretty quickly to announce more national security tariffs.”

“If the IEEPA tariffs remain in place, I think it makes those negotiations way more difficult.”

Trump and Greer have both publicly suggested that the U.S. could undermine or end the CUSMA, which has left stakeholders in all three countries on edge.

But CUSMA was deemed the “gold standard” of trade deals under the first Trump administration, Hale pointed out.

“He’ll make the threat, but … (CUSMA is) going to get passed in some form,” Hale said, noting how Canada is already ramping up Canadian military spending in response to U.S. demands.

Those demands, however, are likely to continue.

“That’s going to be a recurring theme throughout this process. They’re going to weaponize it in other ways,” he warned, pointing to likely requests for more defence expenditures and pipelines.

But even a loss for the administration wouldn’t necessarily mean relief for businesses or consumers hit by the tariffs.

Beyond IEEPA

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has said that a verdict against the president, which would make the administration liable for repaying roughly $100 billion, is unlikely to lead to widespread refunds.

Hale said he thinks the litigants in this case — educational toy importer Learning Resources, Inc. and importer V.O.S. Selections, Inc. — will get their tariff money back. But he thinks the administration will refuse others, leading to more litigation.

“It’ll be up for the others to make claims,” he said, pointing to Costco’s recently filed claim.

Whatever the Supreme Court decides, the White House has made it abundantly clear it will pull other levers at its disposal to impose tariffs.

Packard points to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which the president can use to address balance‑of‑payments deficits, imposing global tariffs of up to 15 percent for 150 days. This can be extended by Congress, but Packard said the White House may opt to let it lapse and then reimpose it, letting it go on indefinitely.

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 could be another arrow Trump pulls from his quiver. “It allows the United States to pick an individual trading partner and then document what it believes are unfair practices that discriminate against American commerce, and then the United States can respond.”

The legislation allows the president to impose tariffs without a statutory maximum rate on the total value of affected goods.

“Those are the two statutes the administration has cited,” said Packard, but his “biggest fright” is that Trump’s team will dust off Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.

It has been blamed for worsening the Great Depression, and it was supplanted by Section 301 but remains on the books.

Using Section 338 would let the president impose tariffs up to 50 per cent on imports that the U.S. deems discriminatory against its commerce compared to other countries. While the U.S. would struggle to prove that Canada — or any other major trading partner — was discriminating in such a matter, the law is ambiguous and allows for a high tariff.

Legal matters

Everything from getting IEEPA refunds to fighting the potential use of Section 338 tariffs would require filing suit in U.S. courts, so it seems that 2025 and 2026 (and perhaps beyond) will also be the years of tariff litigation.

Hale said we should welcome these battles.

“I expect a lot of litigation, and it’s necessary because we don’t want to set these dangerous precedents that future presidents can abuse this kind of power, because it is an abuse of power,” he said.

“No matter what, more litigation.”

National Post

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Prime Minister Mark Carney embraces Michael Ma, Member of Parliament for Markham-Unionville, who crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals hours earlier, at the Liberal caucus holiday party in Ottawa, on Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025.

OTTAWA — During the Liberals’ Dec. 11 Christmas party just hours after Conservative MP Michael Ma crossed the floor to the government, soirée hosts James Maloney and Mona Fortier joked to ecstatic attendees that their favourite number was “172”.

That’s the minimum number of MPs a party needs to get a simple majority in the House of Commons. With Ma’s crossing, the Liberals suddenly find themselves one seat away from their favourite number.

With rumours swirling of

more opposition MPs considering defecting

to Liberal ranks, the question becomes: what happens in the House of Commons if a minority government suddenly becomes a majority government?

For most Liberal operatives, the most enticing part of becoming a majority government is to obtain a majority on Parliamentary committees, where opposition MPs have far more latitude to slow the government’s legislative agenda.

As of now, 11 of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government’s 20 bills are currently stuck at second reading or committee consideration, a mandatory step for legislation.

Because you, dear reader, are not paid to ponder these hypothetical questions, National Post reached out to two Parliamentary specialists to flesh out a roadmap of the various procedural moves the Liberals could take if they were to become a majority government.

So, 172 is the magic majority government number?

Technically, yes. But in reality, 172 caucus members, or a one-MP majority, is not the panacea for the Liberals that many imagine it to be.

In fact, in many ways, it’s the worst-case scenario for a majority government, says Lyle Skinner, a constitutional lawyer specializing in parliamentary law.

That’s because the Speaker of the House of Commons, who does not vote unless needed to break a tie, is Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia. Since the Liberals are without Scarpaleggia’s vote, that means they have 171 votes against a combined opposition vote of… 171.

The government could always try to sway opposition votes their way, but it hasn’t shown much inclination to do so this Parliamentary session.

In other words, despite technically having a majority of MPs, a Liberal government with 172 MPs would still be deadlocked with the opposition.

It would then put the Speaker in the awkward position of constantly needing to break the tie.

But then the Speaker, a Liberal, would break the tie for the Liberals, no?

In a purely partisan world, sure. But the Speaker’s role is non-partisan. That means that, per convention, he would be expected to

vote to preserve the status quo

. That thinking was entrenched by Speaker Peter Milliken, who cast a record five votes throughout his tenure from 2001 to 2011.

Since current committee composition (five Liberals including the non-voting chair, four Conservatives and one Bloc for most committees) was adopted unanimously by Parliament after the last election, the Liberals would likely have to introduce another motion to change committees to reflect their majority in the House of Commons.

But if the Liberals and the opposition vote along party lines and are tied at 171, the Speaker will have to break the tie. And since he’s expected to maintain the status quo… the government is likely to lose that vote.

“You need to have a majority votes in order to change the committee composition. The Speaker, based on practice, will vote to preserve the status quo… so it would be incredibly challenging” for the Liberals with a 172 MP majority, Skinner said.

So, the Liberals’ favourite number should probably be 173 or higher?

If they want to be able to act like a majority government, then definitely.

At 173 MPs, the Liberals could maintain the speakership and a razor-thin margin over opposition MPs during votes (172 to 171).

But even then, governing will be far from simple for a Liberal government with 173 MPs, say Skinner and Steve Chaplin, former senior parliamentary counsel for the House of Commons.

With a majority of just one or two MPs, there is no margin for error for the government and its caucus to miss out on a vote.

Furthermore, it would give each Liberal MP extraordinary leverage over their government, allowing them to threaten to withhold their vote or even vote against a bill unless granted certain concessions.

A government MP resigning or even losing a seat in a byelection could see the Liberals “bounce around” between a majority and minority government, says Chaplin.

“Over the next two or three years, the likelihood of byelections occurring is fairly high, historically. And government, generally… don’t do well in byelections historically,” he noted.

What could happen if the Liberals do get a majority?

There are lots of possible scenarios, but a near certainty is they will move a motion to change the standing orders guiding committee composition to give themselves a majority there as well.

There also a possibility that the Liberals try to amend other

“Standing Orders”

of the House to either set time limits on certain debates or limit the number of dilatory motions that can be tabled, though either move would be controversial.

“Even in a majority government situation, lots of things are open to negotiation by the parties, because everybody has the role to play in the Commons,” Skinner said. “Having an agreement on a solution is generally more preferable than trying to put something through.”

What about prorogation if the Liberals get a majority?

It’s certainly a possibility! It could be appealing to a new majority government to want to hit the Parliamentary “reset button” and start a new session with a fresh throne speech.

But, Skinner and Chaplin warn, there are also significant risks that come with prorogation.

The first is that all existing government bills would die with no guarantee that the Liberals will be able to vote them back to their current stage in a new session. That includes the Liberals’ Budget Implementation Act for the 2025 budget.

The second is that the government would automatically face a confidence vote following the new throne speech, something it may not be eager to do with a razor-thin majority.

“There’s lots of risk in prorogation,” Chaplain said. “If you’re only one vote one way or another, the risk to confidence is probably too high. Why would you create a scenario where you’re constantly testing the confidence of the House?”

National Post

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Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally while wearing a Montreal Canadiens jersey given to him by Liberal MP Marc Miller,  in Laval, north of Montreal Tuesday April 22, 2025.

OTTAWA — If emotions over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his comments about coveting Canada as a “51st state” defined the posture of political leaders towards the cross-border relationship in 2025, business leaders are urging that cool heads prevail in the new year.

With Canada set to begin formal talks with the U.S. over its trilateral agreement with Mexico in January, National Post asked different leaders in business and labour about their hopes for how Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government approaches the deal’s joint review and what lessons elected officials could learn from the past year.

What emerged was a message of pragmatism.

“We’ve had the year of elbows up,” said Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada.

“When you do that in a hockey game, you end up in the penalty box. It’s far more important in 2026 that we, you know, win face-offs, put shots on the net, and put pucks in the net. That’s what’s going to be more important.”

Following a year where national pride surged in the face of Trump’s tariffs, Canadians have heard a lifetime’s worth of hockey analogies from political leaders as they describe their approach to the U.S.

That includes from Carney himself.

The avowed hockey fan prime minister turned to the national sport back in August when explaining why he was dropping a suite of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods covered by the trade agreement, despite winning the spring election campaign on an “elbows up” message, which meant hitting back hard against the U.S in the face of tariffs.

Carney suggested that the time for throwing elbows was over in favour of maneuvering the metaphorical puck into the metaphorical net to score the not-so-metaphorical goal of landing a deal with Trump that would see tariffs on steel and aluminum lowered, if not altogether removed.

Six months later, he has yet to put a win on the board, suggesting Canadians instead cheer for the fact that a majority of goods enjoy exemptions under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, putting Canada in one of the best positions compared to other U.S. trading partners.

Dealing with those tariffs will now form part of the government’s efforts when it comes to working with the U.S. on the first review of the trade agreement, negotiated during Trump’s first term in office.

Unifor national president Lana Payne said the fact that Canada is still dealing with sectoral tariffs means it was starting those talks “slightly on our back heels.”

At the same time, with U.S. inflation and unemployment rising as the American economy deals with the impact of the president’s tariffs, Payne says Canada can use that to its “advantage” in bargaining with the U.S.

“All of these things are helpful to us.”

While Carney may also feel that time is on his side, Hyder said the opposite is true for business.

“What we have said to them is, one of the things you need to remember is, it may be your friend politically, but it’s not our friend from a business perspective.”

One risk, according to Hyder, is that 2026 ends without a joint review having been completed, which only fuels uncertainty the longer its extension sits unresolved.

The business council president said leaders should also not count on what lessons were learned from negotiating with Trump on the current agreement and apply it this time around, given how much more aggressive his administration is on enacting his trade agenda.

Matthew Holmes, executive vice-president and chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, cautioned against thinking that suggests Canada should look to milestones like the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for next November, when it comes to its strategic approach to the trade talks.

“We shouldn’t be ragging the puck, so to speak,” he said.

Given the U.S. signalling it plans to focus on issues like Canada’s supply-managed dairy sector as part of the joint review, as well as digital policies like the Online Streaming Act, Payne said it will be important for Canada to be “very clear about our own red lines.”

In her mind, Trump’s negotiating strategy over the past year can be summed up as, “the more you give, the more he wants.”

As for the question of whether it was time to move on from the “elbows up” attitude in 2026, Holmes at the chamber said it was complicated, as Carney finds himself in a difficult spot, given how the prime minister must reflect what Canadians feel.

Canada was one of only two countries that retaliated against Trump’s tariffs, the other being China. Data also shows that Canadians remain strongly opposed to the U.S., given how many opted against vacationing south of the border.

Holmes says it has nevertheless been important to see Canada adjust its position.

“That’s what personally I want to see from elected government,” he said. “I don’t want to see, you know, a calcified version of an election campaign for four years.”

“We’re seeing a government that is careful, that is listening both to its domestic population but also to the situation around it, that it needs to be able to be somewhat nuanced and fluid.”

In terms of advice for the new year, Holmes said it remains crucial to take the president at his word versus argue “facts or logic with what are kind of the … visceral vibes of the American electorate.”

“Don’t brush them off.”

Making the case for the Canada-U.S. trade relationship directly to leaders’ American counterparts is a must, according to Laura Dawson, director of the Future Borders Coalition, which advocates for the cross-border relationship and includes members like major Canadian airlines and airports.

She said Canadian leaders ought to do so by coming armed with specifics and precise data points.

“The Americans have consistently, historically, been surprised by how well prepared Canadians have been on technical issues,” said Dawson.

She said Canada’s trade negotiators are very skilled, but that the “missing piece” remains “continuous communication and consultation with Canadian businesses who are involved in integrated supply chains.”

Dawson said they are hearing from members looking for more “technical engagement” from the government.

At the political level, she says, business sent a message to Ottawa this year that, as it sought to diversify its market access in response to Trump’s tariffs, while some were in a position to shift away from the U.S., many businesses were not, given the depth of integration between Canada-U.S. supply chains.

“The message that business is giving to the government, the Canadian government, is be practical, be pragmatic.”

 Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 13, 2025.

Dawson also said trade policy is “much more politicized” at the White House, which has a very specific agenda when it comes to remaking global trade. She believes the message from the Trump administration to Canada is, “‘You’re either on board or you’re not, but we are going to go ahead.’”

Payne said the federal government must also bring sectors together to ensure that Canada enters trade talks with a unified front.

As the trade war dragged on, Carney faced more fractured calls from premiers looking for support and action against the U.S. in advocating for their different industries, from softwood lumber, autos, and canola products, the latter dealing with tariffs from China.

“We need a very, very strong Team Canada approach in 2026.”

National Post

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney leave after a press conference following in Kyiv in August. The two will meet in Halifax on Dec. 27.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Halifax today to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the Ukrainian president makes his way to peace talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday.

The prime minister’s office confirmed the meeting, as did Zelenskyy, who told reporters on his plane that the pair will hold a video call with European leaders, according to

Bloomberg

.

As reported by

AFP

, the leaders will “go through all the issues, provide updates, and exchange details” of the U.S.-backed peace plan to end Russia’s nearly four-year invasion of Ukraine.

He again stressed the country’s need for legally binding security guarantees from allied nations to bring hostilities to an end.

The meeting follows a phone call about the peace talks between the two leaders on Boxing Day, during which Carney commended Zelenskyy’s continuing peace efforts and the courage of the Ukrainian people, according to

the prime minister’s office.

“As Ukrainians face another winter of Russian aggression, I reaffirmed Canada’s commitment to Ukraine, and the need to maintain pressure on Russia to negotiate,” Carney wrote on X.

Zelenskyy’s North American trip also comes just as Russia sent a series of strikes on Kyiv and the Ukrainian energy grid overnight on Saturday.

One person is confirmed dead, at least 30 were injured and hundreds of thousands are without power after more than 500 drones and 40 missiles — including hypersonic weapons — were launched, as reported by Bloomberg and AFP.

In a post on Telegram, the Russian defence ministry said its strikes “targeted energy infrastructure used by Ukraine’s armed forces as well as defence industry facilities.”

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.


PSAC criticized the Privy Council Office as 'hypocritical' for refusing to say how many of its employees received potential layoff letters.

OTTAWA — Canada’s largest public-sector union blasted the top government department as “hypocritical” for refusing to say how many of its employees received notice of a potential layoff weeks ago.

The silence from the Privy Council Office (PCO) signals the government may not be forthcoming with public information as

the majority of federal departments and agencies

prepare to announce major layoffs in January.

PCO is the department that serves the Prime Minister’s Office and oversees the rest of the federal public service.

In early December, PCO was the first federal department to notify employees who were at risk of losing their job as part of the Carney government’s decision to cut the public service by roughly 40,000 people by 2028-2029.

Affected employees were sent “workforce adjustment” letters that said they were either being cut or were at risk of losing their job.

How many of PCO’s 1,208 employees received a letter? The top federal department refuses to say despite the fact that all impacted workers have already been notified.

“As the workforce adjustment process is underway, and out of respect for affected employees, we will not comment further at this time,” spokesperson Pierre Cuguen replied this week to repeated questions about the exact number of employees who received a “workforce adjustment” letter.

“Every effort will be made, through mechanisms including alternation and early retirement, to minimize layoffs,” he continued, adding that PCO is going about the process “compassionately, fairly and in line with Canada’s obligations as an employer.”

In a statement Friday, the head of the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) — the largest federal public-sector union that represents hundreds of PCO workers — blasted the department for its opacity.

“It’s concerning and frankly hypocritical that the Privy Council Office refuses to be transparent about the cuts to its own workforce,” said PSAC national president Sharon DeSousa.

“PCO is the architect of many of the austerity policies that have led to sweeping public-service cuts, and they have a responsibility to share the impacts of their decisions with workers and the millions of people in Canada who depend on public services,” she added.

 PSAC President Sharon DeSousa.

In the absence of clarity from the PCO, some public servants appear to be going online looking to fill in the blanks.

In fact, one person recently

launched a shared document on an online forum

in which public servants can input information received from their departments and agencies about the number of positions affected by the cutbacks.

“In an effort to keep track of, contextualize, minimize disinformation about, and put in perspective the ongoing workforce adjustment situation, I thought it might be helpful to collect all of this information in one place,” wrote the unidentified poster.

The document suggests 230 PCO employees received a letter telling them their job would be affected by the cuts. That’s nearly 20 per cent of the department’s 1,208 employees,

according to 2025 government data.

Annie Yeo, vice-president of the Canadian Association of Professional Employees (CAPE), said that the union is bracing for program and service cuts due to the layoffs.

Even when one simply adds up the numbers available from unions or workers sharing data on the internet, what’s not clear, and what CAPE would like transparency on, is what programs and services will be affected by all these cuts across all these departments for ordinary Canadians,” Yeo asked in a statement Friday.

Unions such as PSAC have frequently shared updates

on how many of their members have received workforce adjustment letters since the process began after the federal government tabled Budget 2025 on Nov. 4.

Earlier this month, Natural Resources Canada confirmed that it had sent letters to 700 employees as part of the process to cut more than 400 jobs by 2029.

The government also said it sent early retirement offers to nearly 68,000 public servants in recent weeks.

The cuts come as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government embarks on the most significant reform of the public service in decades in an attempt to streamline services and “right-size” a bureaucracy that has grown by over 100,000 in the past decade.

Between 2015 and 2025, the number of federal public servants swelled to 358,000 from 257,000, according to government data.

In the fall budget, the government said it would achieve the cuts through attrition, voluntary departures, early retirements and layoffs.

The budget also confirmed sweeping 15 per cent spending cuts over three years for most federal organizations outside of the departments of public safety and national defence.

National Post

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