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Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney exits the House of Commons after attending Question Period on Parliament Hill on November 17, 2025 in Ottawa, Canada.

OTTAWA — The Liberals managed to secure one more vote to prevent a snap election.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May announced on Monday that she will be voting for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s budget after hearing a clear commitment from him that his government will respect Canada’s international commitments to reduce emissions.

In a rare move, May directly challenged Carney in the House of Commons on Monday on the lack of mention of those targets and Carney responded.

“I can confirm to this House that we will respect our Paris commitments for climate change, and we’re determined to achieve them,” said Carney.

May had

previously said he would be voting against the budget

as it was written, but that she was open to negotiating with the Liberal government to find a path forward. She said that an oral commitment to respect and achieve those targets was enough to vote “yes.”

“Without what I heard from the Prime Minister today, I would have voted ‘no,’” she said.

May said she also came to this decision after hearing overwhelmingly from her constituents that they do not want an election to happen by “accident.”

“Maybe I’m a fool. I’ll leave that for history to decide. But I did what I thought was right,” she said.

All eyes will be on the House of Commons around 6:45 p.m. for the third and final confidence vote on the main motion of the budget. If it passes, MPs will carry on their business undisturbed. If it is defeated, Canadians are headed to a Christmas election.

The minority Liberals have 170 seats, but they can only count on 169, as Liberal MP and House Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia will only be called to vote if there is a tie. The party’s whip, Mark Gerretsen, told CBC that all Liberals will be in the House in-person for the vote.

With May’s vote, that number will go back to 170.

The rest of the opposition MPs, on the other hand, have a total of 172 votes. The opposition parties could easily defeat the government’s budget and force Canadians into a second election this year if they vote against but not all MPs on the opposition benches are on the same page.

The Bloc Québécois has already said that their 22 MPs would be all voting against.

The NDP had still not come to a decision as of Monday morning. Their seven MPs held a caucus meeting in the morning to discuss their decision. There is a chance that some of them vote either in favour or against the budget, while others abstain from the vote.

NDP leadership candidate Heather McPherson would not say how she will be voting.

“You’ll see soon,” she simply said earlier in the day.

Interim NDP Leader Don Davies is expected to speak to the media only after the vote.

The Conservatives have also said they would be voting against, but it is unclear if all of their 143 MPs will be casting a vote. On Monday, Conservative MPs who stopped to speak with reporters would not say if all their colleagues would be voting or if a few would abstain.

“I don’t know. I know I’m voting against it,” said Saskatchewan MP Kevin Waugh.

“I only worry about Kevin,” he added.

National Post

calevesque@postmedia.com

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In this photo provided by the Japan Self-Defense Forces Akita Camp, Self-Defense forces personnel unload a bear cage from a military truck in JSDF Akita Camp, Akita, northern Japan, Oct. 30, 2025.

The government of Canada has updated its travel advice for Canadians visiting Japan, warning of bears in the northern region of the country.

On the

travel page for Japan

, between warnings of tensions on the Korean peninsula and a slight increase in the crime rate, is a section labelled “Bears.”

“There is an increased presence of bears in northern Japan, including in Akita, Niigata, Hokkaido prefectures,” the warning states. “Bears have been sighted in urban areas, including resorts and hiking trails. Some encounters have resulted in casualties.”

It adds: “If you plan on visiting northern Japan: Always be aware of your surroundings and stay vigilant. Avoid walking alone in areas where bears have been sighted. Follow the warnings or alerts issued by local authorities.” The page includes

advice related to brown bears

from a website run by the Hokkaido government.

Japan has also taken note of the problem of bear encounters. The newspaper

Mainichi noted

that there have been a record 13 deaths caused by bears this year between April and Nov. 5, up from five in the previous year.

The government estimates there are some

54,000 bears

in the country.

Asiatic black bears, also known as moon bears, can be found throughout the country. Brown bears are only found in Hokkaido, the northernmost of Japan’s four main islands.

Rules were amended in September, allowing Japanese municipalities to commission hunters for “emergency shootings” of dangerous animals that entered populated areas. Police officers were also given permission to kill bears, where previously they would merely evacuate local residents and patrol school routes where bears had been seen.

On Friday, those rules were

further expanded

. To address a shortage of skilled hunters, the government moved to encourage retired police officers and former military personnel to obtain hunting licenses to help out.

Media reports note that the increase in bear attacks has been accompanied by a spate of fake AI-generated images, including videos of a horde of bears destroying solar panels at a power facility, and a bear snatching a pet dog.

Some of the videos analyzed by the non-profit Japan Fact-Check Center showed watermarks of the Sora video generator developed by OpenAI. Experts say the clips are crude but that people could be taken in when they are among a flood of short videos.

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Anti-Israel protesters were

A Conservative MP is condemning the latest anti-Israel protest that took place in a Jewish neighbourhood in Toronto on Sunday.

“For those arguing that this is a normal protest: the consulate is on Bloor Street, nowhere near here. The only reason to show up in this neighbourhood mostly masked up is to intimidate Jews where they live,” said Melissa Lantsman in a post on X.

The protest took place in the Bathurst Street and Sheppard Avenue area, whereas the Consulate General of Israel is located about a 30-minute drive south, at Yonge and Bloor Streets.

“And yet, once again, Toronto Police are allowing it and politicians are silent when agitators marching through a Jewish community, parading in front of a synagogue founded by Holocaust survivors to protest a foreign conflict,” Lantsman said.

She added: “It’s arrogant and yet completely normalized and clearly has nothing to do with Israel anymore.”

A video taken by lawyer and independent journalist

Caryma Sa’d

 shows protesters, some in masks and keffiyehs covering their faces, carrying Palestinian flags and walking through a residential area.

“Get out of my neighbourhood,” says one man from his car. Toronto police officers on bicycles and two patrol cars can be seen trailing the protesters.

“Shame!” yells a woman driving by the scene.

Despite a ceasefire being reached in the Middle East last month, the protests have not stopped. One that was held on Nov. 9 was intended to “intimidate those who stand with our community,” the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA)

posted on X

.

According to the Toronto police, such protests have been ongoing since last year.

In Canada, there has been “a disturbing escalation in extremist rhetoric, intimidation, and violence,” said Josh Landau, the director of government relations in Ontario for Jewish advocacy group CIJA.

“This is not about events overseas. This is about violent extremism taking root here in Canada,” he told National Post in an emailed statement.

“Over recent weeks, we have seen public glorifications of ‘martyrs of Gaza,’ pro-Hamas graffiti defacing parks, anti-Israel motions brought forward in city councils, vandalism targeting synagogues, and extremists harassing families outside their homes and taunting community members in their neighbourhoods. Make no mistake: these extremists don’t just threaten individuals; they endanger Canada’s inclusive and democratic society.”

Former MP Kevin Vuong called for an end to the double standard of permitting such protests to take place in a Jewish community.

“Would we let racists dress up like the Ku Klux Klan & march through Little Jamaica or neighbourhoods home to #Toronto’s Black community? Of course not — so why do our leaders allow terrorist cosplayers to do the same to Jews?” he wrote on X.

Toronto Police Service told National Post in an emailed statement that there were no arrests on Nov. 16.

“The demonstrations at Bathurst and Sheppard have been ongoing for over a year. Police have been there every Sunday to ensure public safety,” the statement said.

“Individuals have a Charter-protected right to peaceful assembly and to express their views in public spaces, as long as they remain lawful. Officers were monitoring the situation to ensure public safety and to intervene if criminal behaviour occurred.”

The statement concluded: “We will continue to uphold the constitutional right to free speech and assembly, and our stance is very clear that those freedoms end when criminal behaviour begins.”

Toronto lawyer Ryan O’Connor

posted on X

, calling the protesters “amoral.” He said they were “disturbing a Jewish neighbourhood while marching intentionally in front of a synagogue founded by Holocaust survivors.”

A photo from the protest on Nov. 16 shared by Sa’d shows protesters walking in front of the Lodzer Centre Congregation. It was

founded by Holocaust survivors from Lodz, Poland

in the 1950s.

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Protesters wave Palestinian flags outside Woolwich Crown Court in south east London on November 17, 2025.

An injunction filed by a pro-Israel advocacy group to stop the Palestinian flag from being raised at Toronto City Hall has been dismissed.

The flag-raising ceremony went ahead this morning, despite

opposition from a Canadian Jewish advocacy group

as well as more than 25,000 people who signed a petition, and even a city councillor.

A

video

posted on X shows the Palestinian flag being raised to chants of “Free, free Palestine.” In another video, some attendees can be seen cheering and holding Palestinian flags at Nathan Phillips Square, below the platform where the flag was raised.

The Tafsik Organization, which was behind the injunction, posted online on Monday that it had been dismissed. “The fight continues,” the post said.

“Canada’s

recognition of Palestine on September 21, 2025

, was explicitly conditional, requiring democratic reforms, demilitarization, exclusion of terrorist groups from governance, and progress toward a two-state solution — conditions that remain unmet,” said Tafsik’s executive director Amir Epstein in a news release earlier in November.

“Proceeding with the ceremony under these circumstances misapplies the policy and transforms a civic symbol into a partisan endorsement.”

Jewish advocacy group B’nai Brith told National Post last week that “commemorating this moment, in the context of rising antisemitism in Canada, is not only insensitive but also reckless and irresponsible.”

A

Change.org petition

to stop the flag-raising in Toronto garnered more than 25,000 signatures. It called for a different way to show support for Palestinians that would not create more division.

City Councillor James Pasternak

also posted against the flag-raising

, saying that although political activism is a sacred Charter right, “it does not grant blanket immunity to disrupt the lives of law-abiding citizens, trample laws, endanger public safety, or hijack civic spaces.”

According to the City of Toronto

, flags of nations recognized by the Government of Canada on their national day or on the anniversary of a special occasion can be raised on existing courtesy flagpoles following an approved request.

The city confirmed to National Post last week that the request to raise the Palestinian flag was made on behalf of Palestinian advocacy group the International Centre of Justice for Palestinians (ICJP).

The request was made to recognize Palestinian Independence Day, which was on Nov. 15.

However, Epstein said the event was being endorsed by groups including Toronto 4 Palestine, CJPME, Labour for Palestine, Palestine House, and others, who have histories of “protests escalating to violence or rhetoric accused of promoting anti-Zionism, which critics equate with antisemitism under definitions like the IHRA Working Definition adopted in various Canadian contexts.”

Meanwhile, the ICJP said in a news release that the flag-raising is “a symbolic show of solidarity” for Palestinians in Toronto and beyond.

The flag-raising is “inherently political,” said Epstein.

Other Canadian cities have recently raised Palestinian flags, including

Calgary

, Winnipeg and Mississauga.

More to come…

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Prime Minister Mark Carney does the coin toss prior to the 112th Grey Cup, in Winnipeg on Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025.

Prime Minister Mark Carney was booed during the coin toss at Sunday night’s Grey Cup game between the East Division champion Montreal Alouettes and the West Division champion Saskatchewan Roughriders at Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg. Though he later noted: “We were cheered as well.”

The negative noise from the crowd started as Carney was already on the field and being introduced by the announcer at the stadium.

“Now for the coin toss,” the announcer said. “Joining the team captains is the prime minister of Canada, le premier ministre du Canada, Mark Carney, and the CEO of Coinbase Canada, Lucas Matheson.”

Loud booing could be heard from some sections of the crowd, dying down as players took the field and shook hands with the two men, the head referee and each other.

The referee then welcomed the teams and explained the unusual coin from Coinbase, the

official crypto partner

of the Canadian Football League.

Since the coin does not show the portrait of an individual, he said, “the Coinbase logo will be heads, and the maple leaf will be tails.”

Saskatchewan’s captain called tails. The ref said to Carney: “Mr. Prime Minister, would you do us the honour?” As Carney tossed the coin into the air, the booing suddenly increased in volume.

It was tails.

Carney was

asked about the incident

the following morning as he arrived for the budget vote in Ottawa.

“You were booed,” a reporter said as he entered Parliament. “What does that show you about Western disaffection?”

Carney replied: “We represent the entire country. We were cheered as well.” He added that he and the provincial premiers were “working together for the country, whoever people voted for.”

The prime minster posted his own video of the event on X, thanking Winnipeg for inviting him, and congratulating the winning team, Saskatchewan, who beat the Alouettes 25-17. However, the audio of the crowd was replaced with the song Can’t Hold Us by hip hop duo Macklemore and Ryan Lewis.

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Toronto Police released this image of a person they say is the suspect in two incidents in the same area of the city.

The Toronto Police Service has announced the arrest of a woman following a suspected hate-motivated threatening investigation.

On Nov. 14, Genevieve Reist, aged 34, of Toronto

was arrested and charged

with criminal harassment. She is scheduled to appear at the Ontario Court of Justice on Dec. 17, police said.

The arrest follows two suspected hate-motivated offences.

In the first, on Sept. 15, police received a call regarding harassment in the Bathurst Street and Sheppard Avenue West area of the city.

It was reported that three youth victims were on a TTC bus in the area when the suspect engaged with the victims and made harassing comments to them.

The suspect was described as a female with blond hair, and was wearing a beanie hat.

Then on Oct. 31 police received a call regarding a hate crime in the same area.

In this instance, a youth victim was on a TTC bus in the area when the suspect boarded the bus and began to engage with the victim. The suspect made harassing comments to the victim before exiting the bus at Bathurst Street and Laurelcrest Avenue.

The suspect was described as a female with black hair, wearing a black jacket, red sweater and beanie hat. Investigators determined the suspect was the same person in both instances. An image was released.

The investigation is being led by the Hate Crime Unit. Police continue to ask anyone with information about this case to contact them at

416-808-3500

, Crime Stoppers anonymously at 

416-222-TIPS

 (8477), or at 

www.222tips.com

.

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National Post has learned that Zachariah Adam Quraishi was released as a Canadian Army reservist just days before he flew to Israel and died allegedly carrying out a terrorist attack.

Zachareah Quraishi of Airdrie, Alta., was released from the Canadian Armed Forces reserves on July 10, last summer. Within 12 days, he’d bought a plane ticket to Israel, rented a car, and obtained a large kitchen knife.

Israeli authorities say that within hours, the 21-year-old attempted a terror attack on Netiv Ha’asara, a gated village of 900 close to the northern border of the Gaza Strip, on July 22.

Video shows guards firing as he came at them; his body falling just at the edge of the frame. According to Israeli authorities, the guards told him several times to stand down, but they shot him dead after multiple warnings as he yelled, “Free Palestine.”

It wasn’t reported at the time, but the National Post has learned Quraishi was a former Canadian reserves soldier.

“The individual was a member of the Canadian Army Reserve, serving with an Army Reserve unit in Calgary, Alberta. The individual enrolled on 17 July 2023, completed Basic Military Qualification on 6 Dec 2023, and released from the CAF on 10 July 2024,” Kened Sadiku, Media Relations, Department of National Defence, told National Post.

The department did not say why he was released: “The specific nature of the individual’s release (or release category) constitutes personal information and is therefore protected in accordance with the Privacy Act,” wrote Andrée-Anne Poulin from the same office.

 Security guards confront a charging attacker at the entrance to Netiv Ha’asara, an Israeli community near Gaza.

On November 11 this year, Remembrance Day, Zachareah’s father Adam Quraishi, who works as a schoolteacher at the Siksika reservation and at the Calgary Islamic School, posted photos of Zachareah’s great-grandfather George Reed, a Canadian war veteran, alongside a photo of Zachareah wearing a Canadian Armed Forces uniform, seemingly implying that his son, who allegedly attempted an act of terror, should be remembered as a war veteran.

He was killed by Israelis, said Adam Quraishi in a video, for “looking too Palestinian.”

This follows a steady stream of posts by Adam claiming Israel wrongfully targeted his son. “He went hoping to save lives, confirmed by so many including our family doctor who talked to Zachareah. He was killed 12 hours after getting to Israel,” Adam wrote on a May 21 fundraiser posted to Facebook.

Adam wrote on Facebook and Instagram: “I’m honouring my grandfather George Reed, who served in #WWII, and my great-grandfather (also George Reed), who fought in the wars as well. And my son, Zachareah, who dedicated his life to saving lives — humanitarian work — and was tragically murdered by a country that perpetuates unimaginable violence and disinformation/gaslighting.

“Perhaps if my son resembled our Irish-French heritage, he would have been sent back to Canada. Our home. Such a beautiful place,” he wrote in the posts.

“War is never a solution … The act of killing civilians and individuals who are not fighting, especially in an AI-driven world where images can be easily manipulated, is incredibly risky.”

Adam Quraishi did not respond to interview requests.

At the time, the alleged attack was called a “wake-up call” over growing antisemitic extremism in Canada.

“The spread of radical Islam and extremist ideologies in Canada has created major cultural challenges for the country, including a plague of antisemitism that has spread, making it unsafe for Jews and Canadians to live their day-to-day lives without the fear of being attacked verbally and physically,” Canadian-born Knesset member Sharren Haskel told the National Post at the time.

The head of Canada’s spy agency, Canadian Security Intelligence Service director Dan Rogers said earlier this month that violent extremism, motivated by religion or political views — “persists as one of Canada’s most significant national security concerns. “Worryingly, nearly one in 10 terrorism investigations at CSIS now includes at least one subject of investigation under the age of 18,” he said in a public address at the National Art Centre in downtown Ottawa.

Most tourists arriving in Israel go straight to Tel Aviv, Jaffa, or Jerusalem, not to remote communities. Humanitarian volunteers typically coordinate with NGOs or religious institutions in advance.

The IDF told National Post: “A suspect arrived at the entrance of Netiv HaAsara, exited his vehicle and threatened with a knife members of the community’s rapid response team operating in the area. The rapid response team responded with fire and neutralized the suspect. No injuries to the security forces were reported.

“The suspect is a foreign national who arrived in the area from within Israeli territory, and not from the Gaza Strip. The suspect is a Canadian national.”

The Department of National Defence would not elaborate on Quraishi’s service and exit from the reserves, citing privacy.

Tom Ellard, a Toronto area veteran and Royal Canadian Legion member, is a retired infantry officer with a graduate degree in War Studies from the Royal Military College.

“To be a veteran in Canada, you must have served a day in uniform. That uniform represents a blank cheque of your person to be cashed as needed by the nation,” he said.

“On November 11, we recognize the sacrifice made by Canadians in uniform as lawful combatants upholding the core value of freedom. We commit to work for peace because we know the cost of war,” said Ellard. “Everyone is free to mark this day as they choose, and veterans know the freedom their friends fought and died for includes people saying things others may find objectionable.”

Netiv Ha’asara is a moshav — a communal agricultural community — in the Negev desert about 60 kilometres south of Tel Aviv, abutting Gaza’s northern border. The community lost about 20 residents among the 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals killed in Hamas’ October 7 terror attacks.

Photos of the scene show that Quraishi arrived at the scene driving a white Hyundai rental car. Israeli reports say he had arrived in the country the day before, saying he was a tourist. Images on Israeli media showed his passport had been issued at Cold Lake.

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In this episode of “NP Talks,” the National Post’s Jesse Kline sits down with Michael Kovrig for a wide-ranging discussion on the threat posed by the Communist Party of China. Watch the full video directly above.

Kovrig is a senior advisor

at the International Crisis Group and a former Canadian diplomat, but he is best known to Canadians as one of the “two Michaels” who were detained by Chinese authorities in 2018, in response to the arrest of

Huawei

executive

Meng Wanzhou

at the Vancouver airport on a U.S. extradition request.

“I was detained by state security officers when I was coming back from dinner and they abducted me and held me hostage for 1,019 days,” said Kovrig. “I spent about nearly six months in solitary confinement, being relentlessly interrogated, and then another two years in a detention centre, confined to a single cell.

“It was a gruelling ordeal, not just for me, but for my family. And frankly, it’s something I’ve spent the last few years, as has my family, recovering from. Now we’re all doing pretty well, but it hasn’t been an easy journey. An experience like that gives you a lot of trauma and lot of heavy things to carry.”

He explained that when China began the process of market liberalization, many hoped it would have a democratizing effect, but that has now been exposed as a “fantasy.” Kovrig said it was not totally surprising that the Chinese government used him and

Michael Spavor

as “chess pieces,” although he did not expect that it would kidnap a former diplomat such as himself.

“I think what that experience did, unfortunately, was really help me appreciate the very limited prospects for changing that regime and the way it thinks, and the urgency and importance of taking robust measures to protect Canada and Canadians from the things that that government does. The days of engagement and dreaming that we could change China by bringing that government into an international system, into a liberal trading order, that fantasy is gone,” he said.

Despite the threat posed by China’s Communist leaders, the country is a manufacturing powerhouse, one that countries like

Canada

are increasingly looking to do business with in the face of souring relations with the

United States

. Kovrig agrees that we cannot ignore China as a trading partner, but believes the Canadian government should be patient and focus first on increasing trade with friendlier nations.

“It’s better to prioritize stronger economic trade and investment and security relations with other countries — with Europe, with the Indo-Pacific countries, with ASEAN, Latin America, Africa. Ideally, Canada should focus and prioritize relations with Japan, South Korea, other like-minded democracies, members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, for example, and then come to China with a relatively strong hand,” he said.

“It’s almost like dating, right? If you go on the dating market and you look desperate and afraid, things are probably not going to go ideally for you, right? You want to project confidence and have a clear understanding of what you want and what your boundaries are, what you’re not willing to agree to, what you’re not willing to sacrifice just for a trade deal.”

Kovrig argued that when dealing with China, it’s not possible to separate its economic interests from its political ambitions — it’s all designed to further the Communist party’s geopolitical goals, which include monopolizing global production and hollowing out the industrial base of western economies. “For China, everything is geopolitical and everything can be potentially weaponized for leverage,” he warned.

“Co-operation on a lot of high-tech things is just not an option anymore because there’s such a track record that the Chinese government will siphon off any advanced technology that it doesn’t already have and then turn it to military purposes.

“That’s not in our interest since the reality is the U.S. military and the Canadian Forces are preparing for the possibility of a hot conflict with China in the next decade or two. We don’t want to be doing anything that strengthens the Chinese military or advances its technology.”

Worse, if China monopolizes manufacturing, we could find ourselves in a perilous situation in the event of war. “If China hollows out the industrial base of all the G7 countries and then there is a conflict over

Taiwan

, let’s say, or the South China Sea, tabletop wargame exercises have already indicated that the U.S. and its allies would run out of ammo and missiles and materials within days or weeks, and it would take years to rebuild,” he said.

“So that becomes a critical national security concern, particularly for deterrence. We want to deter conflict from happening. But if China looks at the correlation of forces and decides that the United States can’t stop it from taking Taiwan or from claiming all of the South China Sea, that makes conflict more likely.”

He said that China has already come to dominate strategic industries like ship-building and that its navy “now has more ships in the water than the U.S. navy does.” What’s it all for? “Dominance,” he said. “China wants to dominate East Asia and the western Pacific the way it perceives the United States as being dominant in North America. And then from there, it wants to reshape geopolitics.

“It wants to be the most powerful country in the international system, dominate its region and ultimately reshape global governance so that it’s more amenable to its own authoritarian preferences. Because a liberal international order, in terms of liberal values and liberal economics, is a hostile environment for a Communist authoritarian one-party state.”

But Canada and its allies can push back by working together to counter the economic and military threat posed by China. “We need to double down on alliances with like-minded partners to try to shore up as much of the multilateral liberal order as possible through trade agreements, maybe linking up, for example, more trade between Canada, Europe and the Indo-Pacific countries, more co-operation on standard-setting,” said Kovrig.

“And we need much more work on promoting a positive narrative for the rest of the world. Because to a great extent, this is a conflict that’s taking place in developing countries where China is trying to have much more influence and win those countries over to its side in what is really a political contest. And so, Canada needs to come to those partners with a compelling story backed up by substance of why it’s better to partner with Canada on things than with China.”

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Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, left, shakes hands with Prime Minister Mark Carney after delivering the federal budget in the House of Commons in Ottawa on Tuesday.

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority government will face a crucial test on Monday, Nov. 17, as it will face a third and final confidence vote on his budget,

Already, Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have said their MPs would be voting against the government’s fiscal plan, leaving few options for the Liberals to find the two votes needed in the House of Commons to get a majority of votes to pass their budget.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, with her single vote, has said she would not support the budget in its current form but is open to negotiating. Meanwhile, the seven New Democrats have still not made up their minds — and it is unclear if the MPs will all vote the same way.

All budgetary matters are considered to be a matter of confidence. Should the budget fail to pass, the minority Liberal government will have lost the confidence of the House and will be expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament for an election to be held.

Monday’s vote is so critical that ministers and opposition party MPs will be leaving the international climate summit COP30 in Brazil early to make it back to Canada in time.

But Carney does not seem to be preoccupied by the prospect of an early election as he is set to take off the next day, on Nov. 18, for a bilateral visit to the United Arab Emirates. He will then be attending the G20 Summit in South Africa and coming back on Nov. 24.

So, which party — or MPs — could blink? Are Canadians headed to a Christmas election?

Here are the scenarios the Liberals are looking at as this vote approaches.

THE NDP — ALL OR IN PART — VOTE IN FAVOUR OR ABSTAIN

New Democrats have consistently said they would be taking the break week around Remembrance Day to consult with their constituents, with stakeholders and with working Canadians before coming to a decision on how they will vote on the budget.

Currently, the NDP is torn between voting against as a way to protest cuts in the federal public service which they say will affect the most vulnerable, voting in favour because of specific measures that certain MPs have been advocating for — or simply abstaining.

However, certain NDP MPs, such as Jenny Kwan, have ruled out abstaining which has sparked questions on whether everyone in the caucus will be voting the same way.

The budget includes a few olive branches in an attempt to woo New Democrats.

One of them is funding for a Filipino community centre in Metro Vancouver — something that interim NDP Leader Don Davies has long advocated for. There is also over $250 million to bolster aerial firefighting capacity — which NDP MP Gord Johns has been asking for.

The government was originally supposed to cut all federal departments by 15 per cent, with some subject to more modest cuts of 2 per cent. But the budget spared the deepest cuts to other departments such as Indigenous Services and Crown-Indigenous Relations.

Lori Idlout, the NDP MP for Nunavut, said services for Indigenous peoples were already underfunded — citing reports of Inuit children having to steal food because their parents cannot afford groceries. She said it is “astonishing” to think more cuts are coming.

Public service unions and labour groups have already slammed the nearly 40,000 cuts to the federal workforce, arguing that they will lead to less services and more delays for the most vulnerable Canadians. They expect the NDP to take that into consideration.

“The NDP has always been known as the workers’ party, so we know that the NDP, as they have done in the past, and as they probably will do now, will defend workers’ rights,” said Larry Rousseau, executive vice-president of the Canadian Labour Congress, on Nov. 5.

“That’s what we expect to see.”

A FEW CONSERVATIVES ARE MYSTERIOUSLY ABSENT DURING THE VOTE

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was clear that his caucus would be voting unanimously against what he calls the “costly Carney credit card budget.”

Whether all 143 Conservative MPs will be voting against it on Monday is another matter. Poilievre’s office did not respond when asked if that would be the case.

In the two other confidence votes

on the Bloc Québécois amendment

and

the Conservative sub-amendment on the budget

, four of their MPs were notably absent from the voting records: Matt Jeneroux, Shannon Stubbs, Laila Goodridge and Michael Chong.

Jeneroux had

just announced that he would be stepping down as MP

, so his mind was understandably elsewhere. Goodridge and Chong were on pre-approved international travels but have both indicated they would be present for the budget vote on Nov. 17.

Stubbs’ office did not respond immediately, but she has reportedly been on medical leave.

The decision might come down to the NDP. If their MPs decide to vote against the budget, having just a handful of Conservatives being suddenly unable to vote because of technical issues or having a sudden urge to go to the washroom could prevent an early election.

It has been seen before. Paul Martin’s Liberal 2005 budget survived thanks to abstentions from Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. And Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion’s troops notably abstained from confidence votes during Harper’s first mandate to prevent an election.

But technology has since evolved, and MPs have been able to cast their votes remotely from a secure electronic voting application since 2023, so not being able to show up in-person for a vote does not hold as much water.

Of course, Liberals are still hoping to sway more Conservatives to cross the floor,

like Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont,

and get their coveted majority. But the situation seems to be contained and Conservatives have said publicly they do not expect more MPs to leave.

THE GOVERNMENT FALLS AND CANADIANS HEAD TO A CHRISTMAS ELECTION

Of course, these previous scenarios could go out the window if opposition parties pull together and decide to use their two-person majority to vote against the government.

Political parties have been quietly preparing themselves for an early election in the background — something they claim is a regular practice in a minority government — but there is no real sense that Canadians will be headed to the polls during the holidays.

While some MPs have joked that they have been dusting off their election signs, an imminent election usually implies parties reserving planes and buses and coordinating with the RCMP to protect the party leaders during a cross-country tour.

None of that flurry of activity has reportedly been happening, which means that parties would be caught on their back foot if the government actually ends up falling.

Of course, mistakes can happen.

That was the case in 1979 when Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservative government unexpectedly fell during a budget vote after only six months in power. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau went on to form a majority Liberal government after the 1980 election.

National Post

calevesque@postmedia.com

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Canadin Prime Minister Mark Carney greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 Summit  in Kananaskis, Alberta, on June 17, 2025.

OTTAWA

— As Mark Carney sought to restart Canada’s relationship with India, a top official advised the prime minister in May that a reset should require a “public commitment from India” on accountability measures amid claims the country is behind a rash of criminal activity and murders.

Months later, despite Canada saying India has agreed to more collaboration, it appears that no such public commitment has been secured, as anxiety turns to anger across Sikh communities over fears of violence and repression. 

“Where did that go?” said Balpreet Singh, spokesperson for the World Sikh Organization. 

Rebuilding Canada’s ties to India was a major shift Carney made following the diplomatic freeze that Canada-India relations had experienced starting in 2023, when former prime minister Justin Trudeau announced Canada

had credible evidence that agents of the Indian government were behind the murder of Sikh leader and activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

By fall 2024, Canada and India expelled dozens of each other’s diplomats, as Canadian officials cited RCMP evidence linking

Indian government agents to domestic crimes. Canada had at the time requested that India waive diplomatic immunity to allow police to investigate, which the Trudeau government said was not granted. 

Under Carney, the relationship has begun to thaw significantly, as Canada looks for trade partners outside of the U.S., given the ongoing trade war.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, the country’s first Hindu cabinet minister, made her first official trip this fall, telling a recent Canada 2020 event in Ottawa of the warm personal relationship she enjoyed with Modi.

“There was a lot of conversation when I was in the meeting with Modi, before we got to the technical things, about my parents and our life in India, and their life in India,” she told the Oct. 23 crowd.

“And in fact, Prime Minister Modi was very generous in offering that we could bring my father’s ashes, because we still have to do that, and he would help us spread the ashes in the Ganges (River).”

Carney’s first major step in resetting relations with India happened back in June when he formally invited India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Canada as part of its set of G7 leaders’ summit, where he said India belonged, given its economic power and centrality to supply chains.

Internally, a briefing note prepared for the prime minister by his foreign and defence policy advisor in the Privy Council Office ahead of his first official call with Modi outlined how the invitation “sends a strong signal” of its willingness to re-engage with the country.

The document also suggested that Canada had specific expectations for what it wanted from India.

“Canada seeks accountability and requires good faith engagement to this end. This would include a public commitment from India on accountability efforts to be mutually agreed upon,” reads the heavily-redacted briefing note, released to National Post under federal access-to-information law.

The document also referenced what had then been the upcoming 40th anniversary of the Air India Flight 182 bombing, known as Canada’s deadliest terrorist attack, killing 329 passengers and 22 Indian nationals, with a commemoration planned in Ireland near the crash site.

“As this year marks the 40th anniversary, high-level attendance is expected on behalf of the Indian and Irish governments and your participation is recommended,” it read.

Carney did not attend, but Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree did.

Singh, who works as legal counsel for the World Sikh Organization, questioned the status of that objective of securing a public commitment from India. He pointed to public comments by Indian officials, including from the country’s new envoy to Canada, who, in a recent CTV News interview, cast doubt on the allegations made against India, specifically in the Nijjar case.

“I’m dealing with a community that is under a wave of terror that no one really seems to care about or even know about,” Singh said.

Nijjar, a prominent activist who had advocated for an independent Sikh state to be created within India, had been considered a terrorist by India, which has denied any involvement in his death.

Police in Canada have charged four Indian nationals in Nijjar’s death.

The Canadian government has repeatedly tried to secure commitments from the Indian government that it will conduct an inquiry into its potential involvement in Nijjar’s killing. 
Under Trudeau, those efforts repeatedly failed as India’s government dismissed Canada’s claims in private and in public as baseless and nonsense.

Despite the Carney government’s change of tone towards India, there is no public information suggesting the Modi government’s view has changed or that it has committed to an internal inquiry.

But when the U.S. government unveiled similar allegations of the Indian government’s involvement in a suspected plot to murder Sikh American activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil, Modi committed to looking into the matter and reporting back to U.S. authorities.

That’s exactly what Canada has repeatedly sought from India.

Nathalie Drouin, who serves as Carney’s national security and intelligence advisor, a role she also held under Trudeau, outlined in testimony she delivered to the foreign interference inquiry in October 2024, what specific steps Canada wanted India to take.

“The first thing… for us is instead of denying the situation, take our law enforcement actions seriously and look at what happened in their own system. One thing that concretely they can do, they can scope us in their public inquiry they put in place for the Pannun case in the U.S.,” Drouin said at the time.

“So there’s many things they can do in terms of showing their accountability.”

Drouin, who travelled to India back in September to meet with her counterpart, afterwards told reporters that Indian law enforcement officials were indeed collaborating.

A spokeswoman in the Prime Minister’s Office pointed to that trip as an example of how Canada was continuing to seek accountability.

Accountability remains a priority for Canada,” wrote Laura Scaffidi. 

“Importantly, Canada and India have agreed to continue a law enforcement dialogue and discussions between our countries are progressing,” she said in a statement, reiterating that India committed to sharing information related to ongoing investigations. 

Scaffidi also said that India plays a key role at the G7 and its priorities around supply chains, infrastructure, and critical minerals.

Moninder Singh, a spokesman for Sikh Federation Canada and the British Columbia Gurdwaras Council, said what began as confusion within Sikh communities over Canada’s decision to re-engage with India has turned to anger. 

While senior Canadian officials say India has shown a willingness to engage on public security matters,

Singh said without a public commitment from India, “it’s words that mean nothing.” 

Besides Drouin, CSIS Director Daniel Rogers has been among other intelligence officials to travel to India over the past year, in an effort to secure their cooperation in the Nijjar investigation and slowly renew security ties.

In an interview, Rogers said his conversations with his Indian counterparts have been “candid and frank” as he fleshes out Canada’s expectations for the relationship.

He also revealed that there have been talks of collaboration between intelligence agencies, citing “common interests in countering certain forms of cyber attack”.

He declined to say if he was referring to cyber threats posed by China. B
ut he said that an Indian inquiry into Nijjar’s murder has not been part of his discussions.

“I talk about Canada’s interests and what we need to see to have a trusted relationship,” he said.

“And frankly, we also talk about where we may want to collaborate, which is probably something we need to talk about in the future,” he added. “There probably are things that a capable service in India can work jointly on with Canada.”

National Post

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