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TOP STORY
Three months after the federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney remains smack dab in the middle of his honeymoon period.
An approval rating of 61 per cent. Satisfaction with the government is at highs not seen since the first term of Justin Trudeau. Some polls have Carney’s Liberals enjoying a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.
But much of that vanishes if you omit the one demographic that has always liked Carney the most: Seniors.
A Leger poll from last month showed that while Carney would easily win a majority government in a new election, this was due almost entirely to his wildly outsized support among over-55 voters.
In that cohort, 56 per cent of respondents favoured the Liberals against just 28 per cent prepared to vote Conservative.
Everywhere else, opinions on the Liberals remained divided.
Among respondents aged 18-34, the parties were at a virtual tie: 43 per cent Liberal, 42 per cent Conservative. For those aged 35 to 54, it was 41 per cent Liberal to 40 per cent Conservative.
This continues to make Canada the only Western democracy in which the usual demographics of political leanings have been flipped on their head.
Everywhere from the U.K. to Germany to the United States, young people continue to favour left-wing parties while old people favour right-wing parties.
In the recent Australian general elections, held just a week after Canada’s, the left-wing Labor Party won a surprise victory by sweeping constituencies disproportionately populated by younger voters.
Some of Canada’s peer countries may have conservative parties that are gaining support among young people, or are doing better than usual among younger cohorts. But Canada remains the outlier as a place in which the average 25-year-old is more likely to vote conservative than the average 65-year-old.
During the April federal election, in fact, voters in their 20s consistently emerged as one of the strongest single cohorts showing support for the Conservatives.
In one of the most surprising manifestations of the trend, a straw poll held among Canadian high school students ended up delivering a result that was more conservative than the general electorate. If it had been up to teenagers, Canada would have had a Conservative minority government.
The final days of the election also featured the equally bizarre spectacle of Conservative ads specifically targeting old white men in an attempt to arrest that cohort’s stampede to the Carney Liberals.
In the ad, two older men play golf while discussing the flailing finances of their adult children. One tells the other that his son David has been experiencing a “tough few years” and “can’t seem to get ahead.”
The phenomenon of young Canadians drifting right only started to show up in earnest after the 2022 election of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader. The 2021 federal election had generally broken down along conventional lines; young Canadians mostly voted for progressive parties or stayed home.
It was the summer of 2022 when polls first began showing the near-unprecedented phenomenon of the Tories scoring a plurality of support among the under-44 set.
Poilievre had championed the issue of housing affordability during his Conservative leadership run, blaming the problem on a latticework of government “gatekeepers” holding back densification and housing development.
He also aligned with youth in his support for the underlying goals of the Freedom Convoy anti-mandate blockades. Although the movement was broadly unpopular among Canadians, its most vocal supporters were among under-34s, many of whom had borne a disproportionate share of the consequences from pandemic lockdowns. An Ipsos poll from the time found that 61 per cent of 18-34 Canadians may have disagreed with the tactics of the Freedom Convoy, but thought its underlying message was “worthy of our sympathy.”
This youthful migration to the Tories may explain why Conservative support remains strangely high, even after Poilievre was sent into a semi-wilderness after losing his own Ottawa-area House of Commons seat.
In sharp contrast to Carney’s various trips to foreign capitals and summits, Poilievre’s most recent public appearance was at an all-candidates’ debate hosted by the Camrose and District Chamber of Commerce, where he is vying for the House of Commons seat vacated by former Conservative MP Damien Kurek.
And yet, while Conservative leaders have typically seen their stars fade rapidly after general election losses, that hasn’t happened to Poilievre.
Just after the House of Commons broke for the summer recess, an Abacus Data survey found that while Carney was enjoying a post-election surge in support among Canadians, Poilievre remained about as popular as he’d ever been.
In January, when Poilievre was the easy favourite to become Canada’s next prime minister, his favourability rating was 39 per cent. After losing the election and his own seat, his favourability rating remained at 39 per cent.
“Despite narratives painting him as politically wounded, our data suggests otherwise,” wrote Abacus Data’s David Coletto.
The usual explanation for all of this is economic. Among the many social and economic ills plaguing Canada at the moment, almost all of them are hitting young people harder than they’re hitting old people.
Unemployment is far worse among youth than in any other age group, a phenomenon driven in part by an unprecedented intake of temporary migrants employed in entry-level positions.
In fact, the Canadian youth labour market has deteriorated faster than in any other advanced economy. An analysis by Bloomberg News found that over the last two years, unemployment among 15 to 24-year-old Canadians had jumped by 3.6 per cent. It was, wrote Bloomberg, “the sharpest increase among the 25 largest economies in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development — including the U.S., U.K. and Australia.”
Canada also continues to dominate the rest of the OECD in housing unaffordability. And here, the issue has the perverse impact of harming young Canadians to the direct benefit of older Canadians. For every young person priced out of home ownership by rising real estate prices, there is another — and likely older — Canadian who saw the equity rise on a home they purchased before prices began to skyrocket right around the late 2000s.
During the federal campaign, this divide often showed itself in terms of what voters thought the election was about. Polls consistently showed that among older Canadians, their top political issue was Donald Trump and his tariff threats against Canada.
But younger Canadians continued to prioritize the same problems they’d had long before Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.
In an Angus Reid Institute survey held in the election’s first days, respondents aged 18-24 identified their core political issues as being “cost of living” (49 per cent) and “housing affordability” (41 per cent), with only 23 per cent expressing worry over “relations with the U.S. including tariffs.”
Contrast that with respondents over 65; 50 per cent listed Canada’s top political issue as the trade war, against just 17 per cent who picked housing affordability.
The Carney Liberals did indeed make promises to fix housing affordability through an “ambitious” crash program of government-led homebuilding that would feature heavy adoption of modular homes.
But Carney had only to swear in his cabinet before Housing Minister Gregor Robertson was declaring that housing prices would not be going down. Last month, he appeared to backpedal on Carney’s more sweeping housing promises, saying it would takes years before there was any noticeable change in the status quo.
Meanwhile, it’s on the issues most important to young Canadians that the Conservatives are continuing to chart their best numbers.
In June, Abacus Data found that a majority of Canadians liked Carney, thought his government was off to a good start, and approved of the federal government generally.
But when it came to issues of immigration, the economy, crime and the “rising cost of living,” Conservative support remained dominant.
If an election could be held exclusively on the issue of the economy, Tories would win 44 per cent to 37 per cent. On crime, 50 per cent to 23 per cent. On immigration, 59 per cent to 20 per cent.
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