Danielle Smith Archives - Page 9 of 12

Anyone who believes Doug Ford and Danielle Smith speak for the great majority in their provinces might want to look again at an Ipsos poll taken late in January 2023.

It asked whether respondents agreed or disagreed with “I am in favour of private health care for those who can afford it.”

A full 60% agreed Canada-wide. In Quebec as many as 75% were in favour. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan it was 70%, and in BC 65% — all above the 60% Canadian average.

Atlantic Canada was below average — with only 57% in favour. But at the lowest end it was only 52% in Ontario and 49% in Alberta!

Meanwhile, a few Ontario voters paying very close attention may also be wondering how Premier Ford’s current interest in private health care options relates to the broader innovative health care reforms his government introduced almost four years ago?

Somewhat ironically, various piecemeal reforms and pilot projects of the past generation finally came together in an almost major burst of change under the first Ford government’s People’s Health Care Act of 2019.

Even with its populist title this act reflected the Ontario Ministry of Health’s long-meditated variation on “Integrated Health Care” reform — a policy-experts’ strategy for improving health care delivery in North America and beyond.

In late June 2019 the Ford government’s “new bold vision” was applauded by the Premier’s Council on Improving Healthcare and Ending Hallway Medicine : “The Ontario Health agency, and Ontario Health Teams [two new organizational structures created by the 2019 act] are important parts of building an integrated health care system in Ontario.”

The Council went on : “ When teams of health professionals work together to serve the same group of people … resources would follow the patient. There would be an emphasis on prevention and well-being.”

The COVID-19 pandemic no doubt affected the practical realization of this vision. Former health minister Christine Elliott’s decision not to run in the 2022 Ontario election may have added a further complication.

Something of the 2019 vision nonetheless survives in an early February 2023 health care reform update tabled by current health minister Sylvia Jones, and headlined “Your Health: A Plan for Connected and Convenient Care.”

The recent progress can also be seen in the Annual Business Plan, 2022/23 of Ontario Health — the single centralized agency presiding over the more decentralized world of Ontario Teams in the aspiring new integrated care system.

In 2022/23 Queen’s Park has been spending some $30.5 billion on the Ontario Health agency and its various Ontario Teams, out of a total Health Sector spending of $75.2 billion.

Dr. Mekalai Kumanan, president of the Ontario College of Family Physicians, has similarly suggested that so far only some 25% of the province’s family doctors are “working in teams” where “physicians are supported by nurses, dietitians, social workers and more.”

At the same time, there has been progress. The newly centralizing Ontario Health has (in its own business-plan words) “created one high-performing team from 22 previous standalone agencies and organizations, saving the government over $219 million.”

In understanding the companion Ontario Teams concept it seems important to remember that there are several levels of lower-level teams.

According to the February 2023 update : “Across the province, 54 Ontario Health Teams are working to improve transitions between health care providers.” An additional four are in the works for a total of what seem to be 58 geographically based regions.

Yet a key task for these regional Ontario Health Teams is fostering the smaller primary care teams of Dr. Kumanan’s “physicians … supported by nurses, dietitians, social workers and more,” that so far involve only about a quarter of family doctors.

Sylvia Jones’s February 2023 update suggests a carry on slowly approach to all this : “We are also providing … $30 million” to “create up to 18 new … interprofessional primary care teams, which include … nurses, doctors, social workers and others.”

Meanwhile, of course, there is as well something of a fresh note on the innovation that continues to drive Ontario health care policy.

As the February 2023 update explains, to help reduce “wait times” for such “surgeries and procedures” as Hip Replacement, Knee Replacement, and Cataract Surgery the Government of Ontario will also be “providing these publicly funded services through community surgical and diagnostic centres.”

And suddenly this runs into a big Canada-wide debate on “private health care for those who can afford it,” which 60% of all Canadians favour — but only 52% like in Ontario!

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.

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Whatever other important expressions it has in our troubled times, democracy in countries like Canada is finally about regular popular elections.

(Or as the revolutionary 1649 text of modern “Westminster” parliamentary democracy has it, “the people” are “the original of all just power.” And “Parliament … being chosen by and representing the people” has “the supreme power in this nation.”)

Moreover, on at least one of its diverse sides Canadian political culture sometimes seems to assume that the more elections a place has, the more democratic it is.

There have been eight federal elections in the 21st century so far. Just listing the years (2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2021) suggests that the Canadian people may well have another chance to chose a parliament in 2023!

Beyond such numbers, a former leader of the federal New Democrats (Tom Mulcair) has been advising : “Brace yourself because 2023 will likely be an election year.”

Meanwhile 49% of Canadians in a recent Ipsos poll think there at least ought to be a federal “snap election” in 2023.

It could be called according to all the rules by the minority-governing Liberals, whose March 22, 2022 “supply and confidence agreement” with the New Democrats may be wearing thin.

At the same time, only 43% of Ipsos poll respondents believe such a Canadian federal election will actually happen. And the sceptical 57% majority may finally prove correct.

For one thing, even if the New Democrats were to break their 2022 agreement with the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP together do not have enough seats in the current House to bring the Trudeau minority government down all by themselves.

That will or would require help from the Bloc Québécois — which is also a potential alternate pillar of a minority government led by a prime minister with deep roots (and a seat) in Quebec.

And then, beyond all such immediate parliamentary calculations, federal New Democrats are doing well in recent opinion polls. And Liberals are not.

The shrewdest course for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats in 2023 may just be to continue their 2022 agreement with the Trudeau Liberals (formally set to expire in June 2025).

Similarly, on current polling numbers PM Trudeau would be even more misguided to call a snap election in 2023 than he was in 2021!

Fortunately for those who take frequent elections as a badge of democracy, there will be three intriguing provincial contests in Canada in 2023 — in Alberta at the latest on May 29, Prince Edward Island on October 2, and Manitoba on October 3.

There is some real chance that the NDP will win in both Alberta and Manitoba. And this could finally mean NDP provincial governments in three of the four provinces of Western Canada.

At the same time again, two of the four latest Alberta opinion polls have Rachel Notley’s New Democrats ahead. Another two favour Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.

Somewhat further east, even the Winnipeg Sun has noted that : “If the polls are any indication” all “signs point to a crushing victory for the NDP in the upcoming provincial election.” Yet “the NDP need to show Manitobans that they are ready to govern.”

An ultimate NDP victory in Manitoba could also bring some further reconciliation to Canadian provincial politics. Party leader Wab Kinew is originally “from the Onigaming First Nation in Northwestern Ontario,” and “the son of Tobasonakwut Kinew, a former local and regional chief and a professor of Indigenous governance at the University of Winnipeg.”

Prince Edward Island’s current provincial population is of course about the same as the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area in Ontario or the Abbotsford CMA in BC (170,000+).

The PEI provincial party system nonetheless has its own intrigue. It is more or less like Ontario’s, but with the Green Party playing the role played in Ontario by the NDP — and vice-versa! Recent polling suggests Conservatives will win a majority of seats in PEI in 2023 just like they did in Ontario in 2022.

There is always room for surprises in democratic politics — which is one reason elections remain interesting. This may be especially true in a year that could prove somewhat more rocky than usual economically.

Even without a federal election Canada could look somewhat different politically by the end of 2023, with mostly NDP provincial governments in “Western Canada” and mostly Conservative (or conservative) provincial governments in “Eastern Canada.”

Or not. Conservatives do lead in federal polling right now. And they could finally prove more resilient in both Alberta and Manitoba. We will know early on in the fourth quarter of the new year!