OTTAWA — A new national poll finds that most Canadians see securing a new trade deal with the U.S. as crucial for domestic jobs and economic growth.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI), shows that cross-border relations is a top-of-mind concern for Canadians, as the national economy falters

under the weight of tariffs

.

“Canadians correctly recognize that our economy and that of the United States are closely linked, and they want this trade relationship to continue,” said Daniel Dufort, the president and CEO at the MEI. “Despite calls to strengthen the domestic market, Canadians understand that maintaining our access to a market of 340 million people ensures significantly greater prosperity.”

Sixty-eight per cent of respondents said that failing to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. carried “a significant risk of negative impact on employment in Canada.” A near-identical 67 per cent said a strong cross-border trade deal is “vital for Canada’s economic growth.”

More than six in 10 respondents in all regions of Canada said that a Canada-U.S. trade deal was critical for jobs and the economy, with those in Ontario and Atlantic Canada most vehemently in favour.

An additional two-thirds said they considered economic relations with the U.S. to be “highly important” for Canada’s economy.

Six in 10 said that signing a new trade agreement with the U.S. should be a top priority for federal officials.

Sean Simpson, a senior vice president at Ipsos, said the findings speak to the increasing pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney to seal the deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“I think (Carney) realizes that he’s not going to be able to govern for very long if we continue to have slumping job numbers and more quarters of negative growth,” said Simpson.

Carney was criticized by the Opposition last week after returning from a visit to Washington, D.C.

without a trade deal in hand

. Trump has recently inked deals with the U.K. and EU.

Simpson added that the poll results also show that Canadians are adopting more modest expectations for the deepening of trade ties with markets outside of the U.S.

“I think what Canadians are starting to realize is some of that stuff is tinkering in the margins. Like, is it better to diversify to Europe and other markets? Absolutely. Should we be reducing interprovincial trade barriers? Absolutely. All of these have a have an impact on the economy, none of which even come close to the impact of American trade,” said Simpson.

He pointed to the evolving conversation around the Keystone XL pipeline, which would generate substantial national revenue while deepening trade ties with the U.S., as one example of this shift in tone.

The U.S. accounts

for roughly two-thirds

of Canada’s total international trade, with

a quarter of national GDP

tied up in cross-border commerce.

Simpsons said that two factors working in Carney’s favour are that he’s still relatively new to the job, and he continues to

hold a personal edge

over Opposition Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

“For the time being and likely through into the early part of next year, (Carney) still has the benefit of the doubt of Canadians,” said Simpson.

A formal review of Canada’s trilateral trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico is set for next summer.

The Ipsos poll was conducted online between Sept. 29 and Oct. 1, using a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Post

rmohamed@postmedia.com

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The owner of a piece of Vancouver real estate that was assessed at over $19 million managed to knock nearly a million dollars off the amount used to calculate property taxes, but the Property Assessment Appeal Board of British Columbia says Fu D. Ren breached its code of conduct and may have used artificial intelligence to make his argument.

The code forbids submissions that are inaccurate, misleading, or manipulated, according to a recent decision from the board.

“The appellant’s submission includes quotations from legal case citations that do not exist,” John Bridal, the panel’s chair, wrote in a recent decision.

“It is possible that these may be ‘hallucinations’ from using generative artificial intelligence to assist with developing the appellant’s submission. If so, this might indicate a lack of care and attention to detail. A worse alternative is that the submission has been purposely falsified with knowledge and intent.”

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Ren argued his submission was presented in “good faith,” Bridal said, “but it is troubling that he did not take the opportunity to respond to these criticisms in a rebuttal submission.”

Whether the submission in question was “accidental from the poor use of artificial intelligence or a purposeful falsification,” didn’t make a difference to Bridal.

“I find in either case (Ren) has breached the board’s code of conduct,” he said, noting the same code “also requires any reliance on artificial intelligence to be disclosed, which was not done here. Finally, the appellant also violated the code’s duty to correct once he became aware of his inaccurate and misleading submission.”

In making his arguments for a lower assessment, Ren quoted three decisions from the board and B.C. Courts “that support a 20 per cent downward adjustment based on market resistance,” said the decision. “However, the assessor points out that none of the cited cases can be found on the (Canadian Legal Information Institute) or board websites.”

Ren calculated his property’s market value “by applying this 20 per cent discount to the salesperson’s suggested $12 million list price, to calculate a $9.6 million market value,” said the decision.

The AI matter came to light when Ren appealed the 2025 assessment of his 18,312-square-foot lot in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant neighbourhood.

Ren argued the $19,082,000 assessment was “too high,” and he recommended it be reduced to the property’s “estimated $10,000,000 market value.”

The panel heard the building that used to be on the land “had a series of fires in 2023 and 2024. On Aug. 9, 2024, the city enforced a demolition order for the building. The demolition was complete on Nov. 20, 2024, with the underground parkade foundation the only remaining improvements.”

Ren has been billed “for this statutory enforced demolition,” but he hasn’t paid up yet, said the decision.

“The appellant provides five overdue invoices to the City of Vancouver totalling $2,030,287.14. These are not fully detailed, but they outline a combination of demolition costs and security and maintenance costs incurred between August 2024 and March 2025.”

Ren suggested that the $2 million cost “for demolition, clean-up, and maintenance and preservation should be deducted in calculating its market value.”

According to Ren, the market value of “‘disaster-affected land’ is properly valued as the bare land value less clean-up and demolition costs,” said the decision.

Ren “quotes from two B.C. Court decisions in support of this ‘Demolition and Restoration Method,’ where ‘disaster clean-up costs already incurred must be fully deducted from the assessed land value,’” it said.

“The assessor explains that these quoted cases also do not exist.”

Ren “has not presented a reasonable basis to support the subject’s market value,” Bridal said.

“The supporting case citations and references to appraisal standards are incorrect and possibly falsified.”

Bridal notes the board has the authority to award costs.

“If indeed the appellant has knowingly provided false cases and a misleading submission, I find this conduct would represent a breach of the board’s rules,” Bridal said.

“The unraveling of these falsehoods has required investigation and research by both the assessor and the board. I find an order for costs may be warranted, reflecting the additional time of both the board and the assessor in addressing this matter.”

Bridal ordered the property’s assessment drop to $18,144,000.

“Furthermore, regarding the apparent fabrications in the appellant’s submissions to the board, I also invite further submissions regarding the potential for ordering costs against the appellant in favour of the assessor, the board, or both, which I will decide in a subsequent decision,” he said.

Anyone who uses artificial intelligence to generate legal arguments should state it up front, and check to make sure that references to previous cases are accurate, according to Wayne MacKay, a professor emeritus at Dalhousie University’s Schulich School of Law.

“You can use it at your peril in the sense that you’re ultimately responsible for anything it says, both the content and its sourcing, and if you’re wrong about that, then, basically, you’re going to lose all credibility,” MacKay said Wednesday.

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Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry were the punchline of some of Jimmy Kimmel’s jokes in his opening monologue on Tuesday night.

The comedian poked fun at the so-called couple during his show Jimmy Kimmel Live!. The remarks came after the singer and the former prime minister were spotted together on a yacht in California,

Daily Mail reported

. On Monday night, Perry

seemingly confirmed

that she was dating someone while speaking to fans at her concert in the United Kingdom.

“London, England, you’re like this on a Monday night after a whole day at work and a whole day at school? No wonder I fall for Englishmen all the time — but not anymore,” she said,

according to The Sun

.

During the concert, the singer brought a fan on stage. “I hear you’re single,” he said to her, in

a video published by TMZ

. “You heard I was single? That’s interesting!” she said. The fan got down on one knee and proposed to Perry. “You really should have asked me about 48 hours ago,” she said.

“We had a sighting off the coast of Santa Barbara,” said Kimmel. “I don’t know if you’ve seen this but Katy Perry, the pop music super star, was spotted smooching the former prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau.”

A photo of the pair then appeared on-screen, showing them

embracing on a yacht

.

“There they are making out openly,” said Kimmel, saying “oot” instead of “out,” poking fun at a stereotypical Canadian accent. “Trudeau is shirtless wearing jeans, which is an outfit from the RFK Jr. collection. And man, oh man, what a couple…”

Kimmel added: “I’ve been wondering how Canada was going to exact their revenge for the tariffs and this is it.”

“They’re taking our women. They’re not just taking our women. They’re taking our astronauts,” he quipped, making a reference to when

Perry went to space

on the Blue Origin flight in April.

In January, after Trudeau announced his resignation,

Kimmel said

 the former prime minister would “step down to focus full-time on being handsome.” Later that same month,

Perry appeared as a guest

on Jimmy Kimmel Live! and discussed

her world tour

.

Trudeau and Perry were

first spotted together in July

at Montreal restaurant, Le Violon. Trudeau attended Perry’s Montreal concert with his daughter Ella-Grace, 16.

Trudeau was married to Sophie Grégoire Trudeau for 18 years. They

announced their separation in 2023

. As well as Ella-Grace, the couple have two sons, Xavier, 18, and Hadrian, 11. Images of Perry and Trudeau on a yacht were published online on Oct. 11, which was the same weekend as Canadian Thanksgiving. Trudeau spent the holiday with Grégoire Trudeau and family a couple days later, on Oct. 13. He appeared in a photo shared on social media by his ex-wife enjoying a Thanksgiving meal.

Perry was engaged to actor Orlando Bloom. They split up over the summer and share daughter five-year-old Daisy.

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OTTAWA — Ontario Premier Doug Ford says Canada needs to get tougher with the U.S. as two of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s top trade negotiators returned to Washington to continue trade talks in hopes of securing a deal that would see U.S. tariffs either removed or lessened.

Ford said if Canada can’t secure a trade deal soon with U.S. President Donald Trump, then “let’s start hitting him back.”

Speaking at a health-related announcement in Kenora, Ont., Ford said he would be meeting with Carney on Thursday, while Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Michael Sabia, the Clerk of the Privy Council, lead talks with the U.S. in Washington, D.C.

“That guy, President Trump. He’s a real piece of work,” the premier told reporters on Wednesday. “You know something, what my message to the prime minister when I meet him on Thursday, is if you can’t get a deal, let’s start hitting him back.”

He argued that while Canada plays “nice in the sandbox,” Trump continues to levy new tariffs on Canadian products, pointing to the recent 10 per cent increase in U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber.

” I am sick and tired of sitting and rolling over,” Ford said. “We need to fight back.”

Carney’s meeting with Trump at the White House last week ended without any deal announced, but with Canadian officials expressing optimism that progress had been made regarding steel, aluminum, and energy.

The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement after the trip concluded, saying both Carney and Trump had directed their teams to “conclude this work in the coming weeks.”

“As Canada works towards an agreement with the United States, Minister LeBlanc is in Washington D.C. this week for further engagements with senior U.S. officials,” a spokesperson in LeBlanc’s office said in a statement.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Invest in America Forum” on Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touched on the ongoing talks.

“The president had a very good meeting with Prime Minister Carney recently. So, I think U.S.-Canada’s back on track,” Bessent said, according to a transcript of his remarks.

Canada remains subject to 50 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum that Trump levied under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act.

Copper and auto parts that are non-compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, which is set for its first joint review next year, are also subject to U.S. tariffs.

Carney has defended Canada’s lack of a deal with Trump by pointing to the fact that goods covered by the agreement are exempt from U.S. tariffs, which account for roughly 85 per cent of products.

At the same time, Canada has been seeking specific sector relief, which is where pressure has been mounting.

British Columbia Premier David Eby recently called for the federal government to step up its support for those impacted by higher U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber and other products, such as cabinets.

The recent announcement by Stellantis that it would relocate its production of the Jeep Compass model from a plant in Brampton, Ont., to the U.S. also raised fresh concerns about job losses in the automotive sector.

In a statement Tuesday evening, Carney called the move “a direct consequence of current U.S. tariffs and potential U.S. trade actions.”

More to come …

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Ontario Doug Ford is serious about reducing crime in his province, fiercely advocating as of late for Ottawa to swiftly enact bail reform and more punitive sentences for offenders.

So serious, in fact, that he said he helped stop an alleged shoplifter at a Home Depot in July by chasing the culprit down in his pickup and threatening to kick his “a– all over the parking lot” if he didn’t hand over the pilfered goods.

Ford recounted his tale to Global’s Ben Mulroney and his audience of 1,000 plus at an Empire Club of Canada luncheon and fireside chat at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre on Tuesday.

As the premier tells it, he evaded his security detail by heading to the store around 8 a.m. and before their day began.

“It ticks them off,” he noted.

Ford said he’d made the trip specifically to buy “some plants” in preparation for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to his Muskoka cottage, a meeting

that took place on July 21 and included an overnight stay at the Fawn Lake residence.

“I load up all the plants and I’m ready to pull out and here’s this guy with a backpack and a bag, and he’s walking out and the store manager’s yelling at him, ‘Come back, come back, and the security guard is there,” Ford explained, “and I said, ‘Well, go get him.’ ‘We aren’t allowed to go get him.’”

As the alleged thief continued to walk away, Ford said to himself, “Screw this. I’m going after this guy.”

“So by this time, my heart’s beating, I’m ticked off. So I go racing behind, no one can see, and I pull up behind him and I jump out of the car and I said, ‘Buddy, what’s in your bag?’ ‘Nothing’s in my bag.’ I said, ‘Buddy, I’m going to kick your a– all over the parking lot, show me what’s in your bag,’” Ford said, drawing laughter from the crowd. “I did. I couldn’t help myself.”

As the man continued to deny any wrongdoing, Ford said the incensed manager came around the corner. When nothing turned up in one bag, they demanded he empty the second.

“So he went in there, and he pulled out one of those saw blades that you open up … and the store manager said, ‘That’s what he stole.”

Instructed to “keep emptying out” the bag, Ford said the man produced a set of tin snips.

“By this time,” Ford said, he was “in a full-out rage on this guy.”

The man convinced Ford and the manager that those weren’t stolen, however, showing them rust on the tool and he was sent on his way.

But not before the premier gave him a terse warning.

“I went on to tell him, if I ever see him in the parking lot, he’s gonna get a beating like he’s never got before,” Ford said to more laughter. “Well, that’s what you have to do.”

Ford’s story came amid a broader conversation about the Liberals’ promised criminal justice reform, which he hopes will keep violent offenders behind bars longer and bring about mandatory sentencing.

He’d also like to see the Young Offenders Act changed such that those convicted of violent crimes, especially involving guns, aren’t given repeated opportunities to re-offend.

“There’s too many judges that are just bleeding hearts that (say), “we gotta give them a second chance.” No, these are troublemakers. These kids need to be sentenced, and they need to learn before they go in, there are consequences when you go in with a gun on a violent crime.”

After the event, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy downplayed the premier’s threat of assault against the alleged thief.

“I think what he was, just as he does, speaks from the heart about how frustrating it is for many Canadians, for many Ontarians, where, you know, people get out on bail repeatedly,” Bethlenfalvy said, according to

The Trillium.

“So we need bail reform. We need tougher legislation. Ottawa has to take the lead.”

National Post has contacted the premier’s office for more information.

The tale drew criticism from Ontario Liberal MPP John Fraser, a former grocery store manager, who deemed Ford’s actions irresponsible because the person they’re chasing could very well have been armed. The premier, he said, should have stayed with his security detail.

“They’re here to keep you safe, and they’re not just keeping you safe for you — because it’s a changed and different world — but they’re keeping you safe for Ontarians and for the government,” he told

Global

.

“That’s one of the reasons that they’re doing it. You’re a special person, you’ve got this job that’s really important.”

NDP leader Marit Stiles, meanwhile, referenced Ford’s alleged heroics in

a post on

X that accused him of “chasing the stunts and the theatre” instead of dealing with unemployment.

“800,000 people are out of work — and what’s their Premier doing? Eating ice cream, pouring out liquor for the cameras, and playing Batman, bragging that he wanted to beat someone up at Home Depot,” she wrote.

800,000 people are out of work — and what’s their Premier doing? Eating ice cream, pouring out liquor for the cameras, and playing Batman, bragging that he wanted to beat someone up at Home Depot.

What will it take for him to stop chasing the stunts and the theatre? A million… https://t.co/A478gAyKKh

— Marit Stiles (@MaritStiles) October 15, 2025

It’s not clear at which Home Depot location the incident occurred. The closest store to his Fawn Lake is in Brace Bridge, whereas the one nearest his Princess Rosethorn neighbourhood home in Toronto is on Kipling Avenue.

National has also contacted Home Depot for comment.

• ‘He drives me crazy’: Doug Ford says he is going to ‘ignore Trump’ after 51st state threat revived
• ‘Solving all the world’s problems’: Ford stayed up late with Carney for fireside chat at Muskoka cottage

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OTTAWA — A Crown corporation is forecasting that the Canadian economy will officially fall into a recession this calendar year, part of a global downturn directly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Export Development Canada (EDC) is forecasting economic growth of just 0.9 per cent for 2025, inching up next year to just one per cent. That growth rate for Canada this year is below that of the United States (1.7 per cent) and the average for developed economies (1.3 per cent) but stronger than Germany and France (0.3 and 0.6 per cent, respectively).

EDC, a Crown corporation designed to help Canadian companies succeed internationally, also said the developing world is expected to show much stronger growth rates (3.8 per cent) when the numbers have been finalized, leading to an overall global growth rate of 2.7 per cent.

“Trade tensions have destabilized the foundations for the global economy,” wrote EDC chief economist Stuart Bergman in the quarterly report.

Canada’s key trade woes are with the United States and China. Trump has imposed hefty tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper products, motor vehicles and parts, and lumber from Canada. Other exports that don’t comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) face a 35 per cent tariff.

China, meanwhile, has hit Canada with tariffs on canola, pork and seafood.

In Canada, the EDC says that trade tension has meant rising unemployment and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment. That’s despite an export surge from earlier this year that was triggered largely by companies trying to stock up on supplies before the Trump tariffs kicked in. The Canadian economy has also been hit by a downturn of about 15 per cent in crude oil prices over the last 12 months.

Statistics Canada earlier this month that the national unemployment rate was unchanged in September at 7.1 per cent, after a 0.2 percentage point increase in August. Overall this year, the unemployment rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points, and is at its highest point in more than four years.

The bad news isn’t expected to subside any time soon. The EDC report also said that the Canadian economy will continue to be hampered in the medium term by structural problems such as slowing population growth, low productivity due to limited investment, and high consumer debt.

Benjamin Tal, the deputy chief economist of CIBC World Markets, said his forecasts are largely in line with the EDC’s and that the Canadian economy will be “very vulnerable” over the next three to six months. Tal said he expects the Bank of Canada will respond by lowering interest rates by 25 basis points later this month and then again by the same amount before the end of the year.

Tal said the economy’s overall direction and core strength are more important than whether it endures a technical recession, but that he doesn’t expect much economic sunlight to emerge until the second half of next year. “The economy is not strong by any sense of the imagination.”

The EDC’s gloomy forecast will only add pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to secure a trade deal with the United States — either a broad accord that covers most of the economy or smaller, sectoral deals aimed at steel, auto, aluminum or softwood lumber — and perhaps implement policies that boost short-term growth. That same pressure will also be felt in provincial and territorial capitals throughout the country.

Since winning the federal election in April, Carney’s government has been focused largely on trying to improve structural, long-term problems within the Canadian economy. The policy thrusts to date have included upgrading infrastructure such as ports, rail and perhaps pipelines, reducing income taxes, investing heavily in defence, and eliminating the consumer portion of the carbon tax.

Opinion polls show that Canadians have warmed up to Carney’s efforts to fix structural problems within the economy but are also increasingly keen to see some more immediate results.

Other measures to boost the economy are expected in the upcoming federal budget in early November, although Tal said the government will not have an easy time finding short-term fuel that also supports long-term growth.

This EDC forecast is not the first to predict an economic slowdown in Canada this year or next.

There have been a wide variety of economic forecasts for an economic downturn, including from TD Economics, Deloitte Canada and Capital Economics. There have also been forecasts from Royal Bank, Scotiabank, the OECD and others for Canada’s economy to slow this year but not fall into recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

• Canadians’ view of leadership in Washington plunges: Gallup poll
• What is a ‘modest recession’ and why might Ontario be facing one?

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