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Prime Minister Mark Carney embraces Michael Ma, Member of Parliament for Markham-Unionville, who crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals hours earlier, at the Liberal caucus holiday party in Ottawa, on Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025.

OTTAWA — New backbench Liberal MP Michael Ma, who made headlines for crossing the floor from the Conservatives last month, will join Prime Minister Mark Carney on his first trip to China next week. 
 

Ma will be travelling to Beijing and Qatar alongside a coterie of Liberal cabinet members including Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson. 

His inclusion is notable because he is the only elected member of the delegation who is neither a minister nor a parliamentary secretary. He is vice-chair of the Canada-China Legislative Committee alongside 11 other MPs and senators. 
 

Ma’s inclusion in the trip so shortly after crossing the floor to join Liberal ranks could suggest he is primed for a promotion from the party’s backbench, though some critics see it as a reward for joining government ranks.
 

Asked why Ma was joining the delegation, PMO spokesperson Audrey Champoux said the Toronto-area MP has “considerable experience building relationship between people, businesses and communities, across the Indo-Pacific region.”
 

“Additionally, as the Member of Parliament representing Markham—Unionville and one of Canada’s largest Chinese-Canadian communities, Mr. Ma will add important perspectives and insights throughout the delegation’s work,” she added. 

Ma did not immediately respond to an interview request about the trip.

Ma was born in Hong Kong and immigrated to Canada at the age of 12. He was first elected for the Conservatives in Markham—Unionville in April 2025. He won the seat after Liberal candidate Paul Chiang dropped out of the race due to controversy over what he described as a joke about a bounty by China on another Conservative candidate and Hong Kong democracy activist Joe Tay.
 

But Ma created a political maelstrom when he announced he was crossing the floor to the Liberals just hours after the House of Commons rose for the winter break in December. His addition to the government ranks brought the minority Liberals to 171 MPs, one seat from a slim majority.
 

News of Ma’s attendance on the trip raised eyebrows among his former Conservative colleagues on social media.
 

“I mean … come … ! on … ! At what point do we just say, the Liberal Party of Canada has no values, no principals,”
wrote MP Dean Allison on X
.
 

Carney’s trip to Beijing is the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2017.

Both Carney’s and Trudeau’s trips have remarkably similar objectives: rebuild Canada’s economic and diplomatic relationship with China to help diversify the country’s trading partners following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and a cooling of bilateral relations with China under their predecessor.
 

Following trips to China in 2016 and 2017, Trudeau repeatedly said that rebuilding the relationship with the
Asian economic powerhouse was a “top priority.”
He also accused Prime Minister Stephen Harper for Canada’s frosty relationship with China.
 

But Canada’s relationship with China quickly soured after that.
 

First came the arrest by Canadian authorities of Huawei top executive Meng Wanzhou on behalf of the U.S. government. Then China detained two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, for nearly three years in what is widely considered as retaliation for Meng’s arrest.
 

The Trudeau government’s relationship with China became frigid, leading it to release a new Indo-Pacific strategy in 2024 that focused on developing relationships in the region to get around China’s “increasingly disruptive global power.”
 

But faced with rising U.S. protectionism in Trump’s second term, Carney sees China as a crucial new trading partner to help alleviate Canada’s dependence on the Americans.
 

His trip next week will be his first meeting in China with President Xi Jinping. On top of the aforementioned ministers, Agriculture Minister Heath Macdonald, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu and parliamentary secretary Kody Blois will also travel to Beijing.

Carney will then travel to Doha, the capital of Qatar, before attending the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

National Post

cnardi@postmedia.com

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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at an event in Toronto, on Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025.

OTTAWA

— Conservative grassroots will debate amending the party’s policy towards diversity, as well as deleting a clause that says a future government would not support legislation restricting abortion, when they meet in Calgary later this month. 

Delegates from across the country will gather at the party’s first convention since the 2025 spring election loss to vote on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s future as party leader, as well as changes to the party’s policy and constitution.

Late Thursday, the Conservative party published a list of policy proposals submitted by party members across riding associations.

Many of them align with Poilievre’s message about advancing a tough-on-crime agenda, faster pipeline development and cracking down on immigration, such as supporting an end to the temporary foreign workers program and speedier deportations for non-citizens convicted of a serious crime.

As party leader, Poilievre can choose whether or not to advance resolutions that members endorse, as has been the case for past leaders.

Party conventions have historically been where party members can push a leader to take a stronger stance on an issue and serve as an indicator of the direction grassroots members want a party to take.

On crime, one resolution echoes a call Poilievre has already made to amend the Criminal Code to say that the use of lethal force is presumed to be reasonable for Canadians defending their home against a person breaking into it.

Others, however, touch on social issues the leader has distanced himself from as he tries to prosecute Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government on the cost of living.

One such submission proposes to delete from the party’s current policy declaration a clause that states, “a Conservative government will not support any legislation to regulate abortion.”

Social conservatives comprise a well-organized bloc within the party, but Poilievre himself has vowed not to touch the abortion issue should his party form government. His wife, Anaida Poilievre, has previously said in a French-language interview that the couple is “pro-choice.”

Poilievre, who has been at the helm of the party since September 2022, has largely stuck to an economic agenda, squarely focused on affordability issues and concerns about crime.

Another proposal being brought forward involves the party endorsing as policy the “parental right to body-affirming therapy for kids,” who, as the submission states, may be “gender-confused.”

“We believe that parents have the right to arrange for body-affirming talk therapy for their gender-confused child, and we oppose the federal ‘conversion therapy ban’ which criminalizes parents for doing so,” reads the resolution submitted by Conservative members in the Ontario riding of Kitchener Centre.

The resolution also states support for income splitting and exploring tax changes to support caregivers.

Conversion therapy refers to the practice of attempting to change a child’s sexual orientation or gender identity, which has widely been discredited as harmful..

A majority of the Conservative caucus under former party leader Erin O’Toole voted against banning it in 2021, when the legislation was being debated in the House of Commons, arguing that its wording was overly broad. Poilievre, however, voted in support.

At that time, some social conservative MPs spoke out about the decision to ultimately help the Liberals fast-track the bill through the House of Commons.

Opposition to policies that allow for the medical transition of gender-diverse and transgender children has gained traction as an issue in recent years, with premiers like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government passing a law banning such procedures for minors. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe did likewise when it comes to a child wishing to be referred to by a different pronoun requiring parental consent.

When it comes to the federal Conservatives, Poilievre has himself stated that he opposes gender-diverse minors having access to puberty blockers. During the party’s 2023 convention in Quebec City, party members voted overwhelmingly for a proposal stating that a future Conservative government should prohibit surgical and other medical interventions for gender-diverse youth.

Other policy resolutions being presented include stating the party’s opposition to digital IDs and what one submission calls “protection from political de-banking,” which comes years after former prime minister Justin Trudeau approved emergency powers to freeze the bank accounts of those involved in the 2022 “Freedom Convoy,” in an effort to quell the protest.

Members also submitted resolutions that touch on diversity, equity and inclusion issues, which have become a more popular issue, particularly within conservative and right-wing circles, taking aim at judicial appointments and the party’s own policy on diversity.

One resolution from the Eglinton Lawrence riding association proposes adding to its policy that the “Conservative Party believes in the principle of meritocracy, defined as a system where individuals succeed based on their abilities, efforts, and achievements—not their background or social status.”

When it comes to the CBC, the promised “defunding” of which has been among Poilievre’s most popular promises, one resolution calls for party policy to state that it “believes the control and operations of the CBC/SRC as an entity should be accomplished through independent, non-governmental funding.”

Many of the proposed changes to the party’s constitution revolve around the nomination process, which the Conservative Party has already sought to address after widespread concerns following last year’s election about last-minute appointments and a lack of nomination contests.

National Post

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On Jan. 5, the U.S. Department of State posted to X,

Welcome to the era of the “Donroe Doctrine” — a reinterpretation of a 19th-century foreign policy used to justify the

United States’ attack on Venezuela

and assert dominance in the Western Hemisphere

,

encompassing North and South America and the surrounding waters. On Jan. 5, the U.S. Department of State

posted to X

, “This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened.” A photo of U.S. President Donald Trump with a text overlay — “THIS IS OUR HEMPISPHERE” — was attached.

Two days earlier, Trump announced at a Mar-a-Lago

press conference

that the U.S. military had

captured

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who face drug trafficking and weapons charges in a New York court. Flores and Maduro, who says he’s a prisoner of war,

pleaded not guilty

in their first court appearance on Monday.

Trump said the United States would run Venezuela until “a safe, proper and judicious transition” is possible, bringing a 202-year-old framework — the Monroe Doctrine — into the spotlight. Here’s what you need to know.

What is the Monroe Doctrine?

The

Monroe Doctrine

dates back to Dec. 2, 1823, when the fifth U.S. president, James Monroe, made a speech before Congress warning European nations against further intervention in newly independent Central and South American countries.

“As a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintained, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for colonization by any European powers,” Monroe said.

Over time, the address became known as the Monroe Doctrine. Presidents including Theodore Roosevelt (who introduced the

Roosevelt Corollary

), Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy have invoked the foreign policy framework. As seen in Venezuela, the doctrine continues to affect the United States’ relationships with Latin American countries. Its reinterpretation has played a role in other U.S. interventions in the region, including the

Dominican Republic

and

Nicaragua

in the 20th century.

One of the main concepts of the doctrine was to maintain two distinct spheres of influence: the Americas and Europe.

According to the

U.S. Office of the Historian

, “The independent lands of the Western Hemisphere would be solely the United States’ domain. In exchange, the United States pledged to avoid involvement in the political affairs of Europe, such as the ongoing Greek struggle for independence from the Ottoman Empire, and not to interfere in the existing European colonies already in the Americas.”

The idea of dividing the planet into three spheres of influence has held sway over members of the Trump administration, writes American historian

Anne Applebaum

. “The U.S. would control the Western hemisphere, China would control Asia, Russia would control Europe.”

From a yearning to

annex Greenland

to a threat of

military action in Colombia

, the Trump administration has placed its foreign policy strategy under the Monroe Doctrine umbrella.

 U.S. President Donald Trump referred to the “Donroe Doctrine” when he spoke to the press on Jan. 3, following military actions in Venezuela.

What has Trump said about the Monroe Doctrine?

Monroe’s portrait reportedly

hangs in the Oval Office

near Trump’s desk.

In November 2025, the Trump administration released its

National Security Strategy

, saying it would “assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.” The objective, according to the document, is “to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States,” to cooperate with other governments in the Western Hemisphere “against narco-terrorists, cartels and other transnational criminal organizations,” to keep the hemisphere “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets” and supportive of supply chains, and to maintain access to strategic locations.

Trump then released a

message

on the anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine in December 2025 that he called the “Trump Corollary” to the policy: “That the American people — not foreign nations nor globalist institutions — will always control their own destiny in our hemisphere.”

Trump couched the United States’ recent Latin American intervention — in which Venezuela’s interior minister says

100 people died

— in the Monroe Doctrine.

At a press conference

at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Trump

told reporters

, “We will run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.” U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio later

suggested

the United States wouldn’t govern the South American country but would ​​enforce an existing “oil quarantine” on sanctioned tankers. American forces

seized two tankers

on Jan. 7, the same day Trump told

The New York Times

that “only time will tell” how long the U.S. will run Venezuela and draw oil from its reserves, but he expects it to be years.

Venezuela had been

strengthening ties

with China and Russia. With the U.S. asserting its authority, the countries’ investments in Latin America are

in question

. “This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live — and we’re not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors and rivals of the United States,” Rubio told

NBC News

.

Why are people calling it the ‘Donroe Doctrine,’ or the ‘Trump Doctrine’?

Following the U.S. attack on the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, Trump used the Monroe Doctrine to assert the United States’ authority in the Western Hemisphere, crediting his spin on the policy — the “Donroe Doctrine,” a play on his first name that the

New York Post

is believed to have coined a year ago.

“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the ‘Donroe Doctrine,’” said the U.S. president. “(The Monroe Doctrine) was very important, but we forgot about it. We don’t forget about it anymore. Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”

Under the Donroe Doctrine, Canada would also fall under the United States’ sphere of influence.

Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security adviser, has reinforced this message, referring to the recast maxim as the “Trump Doctrine.”

“The United States is using its military to secure our interests unapologetically in our hemisphere. We’re a superpower, and under President Trump, we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower,” Miller

told CNN

. “The Monroe Doctrine — and the Trump Doctrine — is all about securing the national interests of America.”

Trump’s approach now has a name, but John Bolton, the U.S. president’s former security adviser, questioned the existence of a cohesive policy, telling

The Atlantic

, “There is no Trump Doctrine: No matter what he does, there is no grand conceptual framework; it’s whatever suits him at the moment.”

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Ari Da Costa requested a 30-day leave to travel to Thailand but his psychiatrist suggested two weeks would be a better length of time.

A Toronto man found not criminally responsible for killing his own father with a hammer a decade back has been approved for 14 days of international travel even though he “continues to represent a significant threat to the safety of the public.”

Ari Da Costa, 30, had asked the Ontario Review Board for a 30-day leave to travel internationally so he could study mixed martial arts in Thailand. Instead, his psychiatrist suggested two weeks of travel might be a better bet.

“The treatment team would like to see some shorter ‘intermediate length’ trips prior to considering such an extended absence,” said a recent decision from the Ontario Review Board.

Da Costa’s psychiatrist “also agreed that it would be ‘preferable’ if any contemplated international trip be in the company of an approved person,” such as his mother.

The board “is unanimous in accepting that Mr. Da Costa represents a significant threat to the safety of the public,” said the decision.

“As submitted by (a lawyer representing the Attorney General of Ontario), this includes ‘the safety of the public everywhere.’”

The board acknowledged “that the terms of any disposition must be not only necessary and appropriate but at the same time, the least onerous and least restrictive.”

At some point in time it is necessary to “take the training wheels off,” Da Costa’s lawyer told the board.

The board “supports international travel on an itinerary approved by the person in charge while accompanied by an approved person for a period not exceeding 14 days,” said the decision dated Dec. 30, 2025.

Da Costa was found not criminally responsible on a charge of first degree murder in May 2019.

In December 2024, “Mr. Da Costa was ordered to be detained within the General Forensic Unit at Ontario Shores Centre for Mental Health Sciences with privileges up to and including residing in the community in supervised accommodation,” said the decision.

His psychiatrist told the board “it has been a good year for Mr. Da Costa. He has done well in the community and there have been no issues with his supported residence at Ballantyne House. He continues to work four days a week and is given (leave of absence) passes on weekends which he tends to spend with his mother.”

Da Costa called 911 on Dec. 18, 2015.

“He stated that he needed paramedics and police, that he had struck his father in the head with a hammer, and he believed that his father was dead. Mr. Da Costa was found covered in blood and he was arrested. His father, Richard Da Costa, was found dead in the basement, with a hammer beside him,” said the decision.

Da Costa had been thinking about killing his father for six months before he did it. “He reported that he had hidden a hammer in couch cushions. He knew that striking his father on the head would kill him. He stated that he hit his father from behind, while his father was carrying a television.”

Weeks before killing his father, Da Costa “agreed to attend the Canadian Mental Health Association’s Early Psychosis Program,” said the decision.

“He reported paranoid symptoms, including messages from the television and people reading his mind. He consistently reported that he did not enjoy living with his parents but refused to elaborate.”

Da Costa “met with an occupational therapist at the program,” four days before killing his dad, “apparently in an organized and cooperative fashion.”

Da Costa has been diagnosed with schizophrenia, cannabis use disorder, and alcohol use disorder, though the last two are in remission, said the decision.

“Da Costa’s risk for violence flows primarily from his underlying major mental illness, which, when active and under treated, has led to very serious violence. He continues to have some residual symptoms of auditory hallucinations, but these do not cause significant distress or impairment at this time.”

His psychiatrist told the board “Da Costa’s symptoms are nearly completely in remission,” but that he “continues to represent a significant threat to the safety of the public.”

Da Costa is now “using the lockbox at his residence for medication distribution seven days a week. In other words, he is now 100 percent managing his own medication compliance,” said the decision.

His treatment team said Da Costa “no longer requires the high level of support provided at Ballantyne House and will be able to be managed in a less supportive residence,” said the decision. “Having said that, the treatment team do not believe that Mr. Da Costa is ready for a move to fully independent living as this would represent an unnecessary risk enhancing step.”

His psychiatrist said “that the next move will be to housing operated by Durham Mental Health Services in a less supervised home.”

Da Costa was 20 years old and living with his grandmother when he killed his dad.

“He described a happy childhood but admitted to suffering from mood problems, gender identity issues and having bad thoughts in his mid-teens, which impacted his interpersonal functioning. He admitted to using marijuana and drinking alcohol heavily at times throughout his adolescence.”

Da Costa told the board he stopped using marijuana “because of its impact on his schooling. He was not passing his grades at Humber College as he left class ‘to get high all the time.’ He stated that cannabis also ‘…agitated the voices.’ Mr. Da Costa reported also having experimented with MDMA, using it twice at age 18.”

Da Costa studied fitness and health promotion at Humber. “He stated that he enjoyed his classes, but he did not want to put in as much effort as was required. He also acknowledged missing many classes because, as he stated, ‘I was too preoccupied with getting high.’ He left Humber College after failing half of his courses in his first semester and he did not return to school afterwards. He has a limited employment history. He reported that he eventually lacked the motivation to work and lived off credit cards and his parents’ support. He reportedly ran up a $2,000 credit card debt from the purchase of alcohol.”

Da Costa used a pass to travel to British Columbia last summer, said the decision. “He also makes use of indirectly supervised passes to travel to his mother’s home on weekends. There has been no indication of substance use while Mr. Da Costa has been on approved trips.”

His psychiatrist “agreed that it was possible that Mr. Da Costa would be eligible for a 30-day trip within the next reporting year.”

Da Costa is waiting for a bed at a Durham Mental Health Services home.

“There have been no issues with violence or threats at his current residence. There have been no command hallucinations bothering Mr. Da Costa. He is aware of the symptoms of his major mental illness,” said the decision.

Da Costa’s “insight has improved over the course of the past year,” said his psychiatrist. “There have been no breaches of his abstinence condition.”

The board said that “as Mr. Da Costa moves to more independent living, his risk of stressors caused by financial responsibilities, employment and substance use may exacerbate residual symptoms of psychosis (leading) to violent behaviour. It is noted that Mr. Da Costa has historically coped with psychosocial stressors through substance use.”

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If this past year’s generational shift in the popular Canadian attitude to immigration can be pinpointed in hindsight on the calendar, it was somewhere around the beginning of November, when Canada’s population peaked and began to decline.

To be sure, the big inflection points on immigration had already passed, including the massive spike in the pandemic, driven by a wild gamble to increase temporary residents to juice the economy, followed eventually by the realization that this was putting impossible strain on housing and services, leading to large cuts in 2024 in the dying days of the Justin Trudeau prime ministership.

But November 2025’s federal budget formalized this, and doubled down on the flip flop, slashing the cap on temporary residents from 675,000 to 385,000.

Coupled with the news that Canada’s population of about 41.5 million people actually declined by 76,000 in three months, the largest quarterly drop since the 1940s, this showed that the moment of flux was over. The kaleidoscope pieces have settled, and the generational shift has become the new normal. The cuts to immigration would not only continue, but accelerate in the coming years. And more people than ever seem to approve, to view immigration broadly as a problem rather than a solution.

It is a dramatic change.

The percentage of temporary residents in Canada, which spiked from 3.3 per cent in 2018 to 7.5 per cent in 2024 is to be cut back to a goal of five per cent, or one person in twenty. New permanent residents are to be kept under one per cent by 2027.

“We are getting immigration under control,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said in promoting his budget, which carried the unspoken admission that it has not been, and is not yet.

“If we look at 2025, we start seeing the impact of changes,” said Rupa Banerjee, professor of human resources management and organization behaviour at Toronto Metropolitan University and Canada Research Chair in Economic inclusion, Employment and Entrepreneurship of Canada’s Immigrants.

Public attitudes that had been overall positive on immigration since the 1990s now have settled firmly into the negative. Polling by Environics has shown a clear majority of Canadians believe “there is too much immigration to Canada.” In late 2024, 58 per cent of Canadians said this, marking a fully 14 point increase from the year before. If ever there was an issue on the move in 2025, it was immigration.

After the pandemic, immigration numbers “ratcheted up a lot,” Banerjee said, particularly for temporary residents such as foreign students and people with work permits.

“This became a flashpoint of what all of our problems were in the country. It was an oversimplification, but it is what the public felt,” Banerjee said. “For the first time in 25 years we started seeing the public move against immigration.”

So today, at the start of 2026, the popular middle ground is no longer an emotionally driven appeal to Canada’s welcoming virtues. Now, it is a more restrained, calculating, even ruthless view of immigration focused on limited capacity and coldly economic cost/benefit analysis.

That holds true even among immigrants themselves, Banerjee said, for whom the biggest competitors tend to be other immigrants.

That both flip and flop happened under Liberal governments, but different prime ministers, has helped Carney manage this pivot. Rather than wear Trudeau’s judgment failure as his party’s own, he is able to present himself as a problem solver and thereby to wrongfoot the Conservatives for whom immigration had been a winning point of popular distinction. Tories moaned, not for the first time, about Grits stealing their best campaign ideas.

Much of the drop in temporary residents is coming from reduced numbers of foreign students.

Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies, sees this as a necessary correction to a system in which universities and colleges had engaged in “commodification of the students,” relying heavily on the higher tuition fees paid by foreign students without reckoning with the broader implications to civic life, local economies, and the resilience of their own operating budgets.

“A lot of the cuts that the government enacted or set targets for were largely attributable to adjustments to source countries,” said Jedwab, who is tracking numbers from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

These cuts heavily applied to India. Jedwab said he found Canada rejected nearly three quarters of Indian applications for permits to study at Canadian post-secondary institutions in August 2025, the most recent month available, compared to about 32 per cent in August 2023.

There was a 54 per cent drop in numbers of study permit holders from India from 2024 to 2025, compared to an 18 per cent drop for other countries, Jedwab found.

The very fact there is a limit at all is novel, Banerjee said. Prior to last year there had been no caps, not even any real tracking.

“It was left to the market,” Banerjee said. “I think (the change) was needed, especially on the temporary resident side, where market forces were dictating numbers so there was no limitation.”

It may be popular in principle, but there is also skepticism about Carney’s strategic response to immigration. For example, the new federal budget includes pledges to recruit 1,000 leading international researchers and attract skilled foreign workers already in the U.S. with an accelerated pathway to Canada. In December, however, came news that Canada’s main work permit program for immigrant entrepreneurs will stop taking new applications.

These are the just the latest details, not major shifts on their own, but they reflect a broader subversion of Canada’s “world-renowned skilled immigration system,” according to five academic economists writing jointly for the C.D. Howe Institute.

They describe a well-intentioned but fateful decision taken by the Trudeau Liberals in 2023. By carving out new categories of immigrants to satisfy provincial priorities even though they would fail to meet points-based thresholds for residency, the economists’ memo says, Canada replaced a rules-based system with ministerial discretion.

“The result is an opaque system that is exposed to political lobbying, looks like a lottery to prospective migrants, and squeezes out highly skilled candidates,” they write.

With fewer skilled immigrants, Canada’s productivity and tax revenue suffers. This, in turn, “affects Canada’s ability to attract the world’s best and brightest students to our post-secondary institutions, which are collectively reeling from plummeting international enrolment.”

Jedwab sees some blame for industry in this. Canada does need immigration to remain demographically robust, he said. An aging population will change the tax burden. To weather that change, he said industry needs to be more vocal about offering a sustainable vision, rather than saying simply that they need more workers.

In 2025, the demographic impact of Canada’s new normal on immigration made itself clear. But more change is coming.

“I don’t think we’re seeing the economic outcomes yet, but we are seeing the demographic effects,” Jedwab said.

Canada is accepting far fewer immigrants. It pledges to accept even fewer. And more people than ever in recent memory believe this is the right thing to do. The national population has crested and Canada has entered population decline.

“I think one year we can withstand, but if this continues, that has negative consequences for growth,” Banerjee said.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith during a Stampede breakfast at the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America in Calgary on Friday, July 4, 2025.

OTTAWA —

A new poll shows

that tensions with Ottawa are declining in all four western provinces, with perceptions of the federal government improving especially rapidly in Alberta.

The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, finds that half of Western Canadians feel the federal government pays attention to their province, the highest result in four years. This includes 53 per cent of British Columbians, 51 per cent of Albertans and 49 per cent of Manitobans.

The one outlier was Saskatchewan, where just 36 per cent said they felt the same way.

Even so, perceptions of Ottawa ticked upward in all four provinces. In Alberta, feelings toward Ottawa improved by 13 points from a low of 38 per cent in late 2023.

Matt Smith, Pollara’s lead for Western Canada, said the numbers show Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy of engagement with the region is working so far.

“(Carney’s) more economic focus, bringing in policies that the west and others wanted … is resonating with people,” said Smith.

Smith pointed to Carney’s

recent memorandum of understanding

(MOU) with Alberta on energy development and decision to put the new Major Projects Office in Calgary as meaningful gestures of goodwill toward Western Canada.

Seven of the 13 projects

put forward to the office so far are located in Western Canada, with B.C. being home to six of these projects.

Just 14 per cent said they’d vote for their province to separate from Canada, including 19 per cent of Albertans and 20 per cent of Saskatchewanians.

“Western alienation is real, but separatism is very minor and marginal,” said Matt Smith.

The findings defy warnings from pundits, including

Reform Party founder Preston Manning

, that a win for Carney’s Liberals in last April’s federal election could spur unprecedented support for Western secession.

Tensions between Ottawa and Western Canada

reached a boiling point

under Carney’s Liberal predecessor Justin Trudeau, whose anti-fossil fuels policies were a major irritant to the region. Trudeau finished out his time in office

without a single cabinet minister

from Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Smith said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith deserves her share of the credit for forcing Carney to address Western alienation early in his tenure as prime minister.

“She has gotten a disproportionate amount of attention from the federal government … and I think her willingness to come out quickly and throw down the gauntlet served her well,” said Matt Smith.

In a statement

posted to social media

just days after Carney took office in March, the Alberta premier said the winner of April’s federal election would have “six months” to address a list of energy-related grievances if they hoped to avoid an “unprecedented national unity crisis.”

Smith and Carney were subsequently able to reach a compromise on most of these issues in November’s MOU, which notably endorsed the construction of a new heavy oil pipeline to the West Coast.

Polling shows

the MOU enjoys strong support

across Western Canada.

The Pollara poll was taken between Dec. 5 and 20, 2025, using a sample of 3,800 adults recruited from an online panel. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Post

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Conservative MP Garnett Genuis says York University's student union cancelled his campus event, calling it an attack on free speech.

Alberta member of Parliament Garnett Genuis is claiming an attack “on free speech” after the York University Student Center (YUSC) rejected a request for him to bring his public discussion forum to the campus on Friday.

Starting last fall, Genuis, the Conservative Party of Canada’s shadow minister for employment, has been visiting select universities where he has asked students whether they are better or worse off than their parents’ generation and discussed youth unemployment and economic issues facing young Canadians.

In an interview with National Post, Genuis said the York University Campus Conservatives, a registered student organization, had applied for this week’s event on his behalf, but were denied because they didn’t want the 38-year-old MP speaking to students “outside of a closed classroom.”

“And that’s not really acceptable to me,” he said.

“The events we’ve been doing have been in public areas so that students can stop by and talk and I think it’s unreasonable that they’re not allowing it to happen.”

In an emailed statement to National Post, YUSC executive director Jason Goulart said their decision was “not politically motivated in any way” and was not approved because their application failed to satisfy booking policies to which all internal and external groups must adhere, “regardless of content or affiliation.”

“The organizers of this particular event simply did not provide enough detail for us to adequately assess the type of programming, appropriate channels and venue required,” he stated, noting the student group or Genuis are free to reapply at any time.

The YUSC is a legal entity separate from York itself, with its own staff and board of directors comprised of students, stakeholders and university representatives.

Genuis first identified the school’s student union, the York Federation of Students, as the party responsible for making the decision when he posted about the cancelled event

Wednesday night on X

.

He clarified and made the distinction in

a follow-up X post

on Thursday.

Union president Somar Abuaziza told National Post in an email that the organization “was not made aware of this event until receiving media inquiries” regarding Genuis’s statement. Goulart also explained that the YFS was not involved.

Genuis has held his forum at universities in four provinces so far, including stops at

St. Francis Xavier in Antigonish, N.S., on Tuesday

and another

Thursday at Dalhousie in Halifax

. None of those visits, he insisted, were met with any controversy or any hostility towards him directly. While students have presented a broad range of differing political views, he said the discourse was always respectful.

Genuis didn’t speculate on any other YUSC motive for cancelling, but said freedom of speech and freedom of association don’t seem to be afforded appropriate respect by “political elites.”

“Sometimes there’s this idea out there that people need to be protected from disagreement,” he said. “I think that’s a silly idea, and that, especially on campus, people should be seeing and hearing and encountering a broad range of different points of view.”

York itself has had

a policy on free speech

in place since 2018 which states that all invited guests may express views within the law without fear of intimidation. It also recognizes that freedom of speech is not absolute and does not protect hate speech, harassment, threats or conduct that violates the law or the school’s safety policies.

“Preservation of free and open exchange of ideas and opinion for and by all members of the community through respectful debate, including robust rights to protest and express dissent, are central to the mission of York University,” the policy reads.

“Attempts to prevent such free inquiry, whether from other members of the University community or from external groups, are inconsistent with this mission.”

Genuis will conclude this portion of his discussion tour on Friday afternoon at Toronto Metropolitan University’s George Vari Engineering and Computing Centre.

Promoting the event on X

, he invited “any aspiring censors in the city to come by and see what good political conversation looks like.”

He promises more events are coming to campuses in Alberta and B.C. soon. He also vows to return to York University.

As for the answer to his question about being better or worse off, young people have “overwhelmingly” responded with the latter, citing the impossibly high price of housing and employment challenges.

“On the job side, a lot of concern about challenges and uncertainties around accessing jobs, a kind of credential inflation reality where young people feel that they need to get more and more qualifications for jobs that in the past didn’t require the same level of qualification,” he explained.

In October, Genuis took the lead in announcing the

Conservative Youth Jobs Plan

, which includes proposals to “unleash the economy, fix immigration, reform training programs and build homes where jobs exist” to help young Canadians find employment.

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford empties a Crown Royal bottle of whisky at a press conference in Kitchener, Ont., on Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025.

Doug Ford said Monday that Ontarians should “stock up” on Crown Royal, as it will be pulled from the shelves of LCBO stores next month. The decision was made in response to British liquor company Diageo announcing that it would be shuttering one of its factories in Ontario and moving it to the United States.

But Canadian researcher and professor Sylvain Charlebois told National Post that Ford’s move could adversely impact jobs in the rest of the country.

Here’s why the repercussions of the Crown Royal boycott may be more complicated than what Ford is saying.

Who will the Crown Royal boycott affect?

There are many Canadians who will continue to work on manufacturing Crown Royal whisky outside of Ontario. There are 1.5 million barrels in the company’s distillery in Gimli, Manitoba, at the edge of Lake Winnipeg. Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Valleyfield Distillery produces 28 million litres of alcohol, which includes Crown Royal, according to whiskey.com.

“Canadian farmers out of Manitoba support the production at the Gimli plant. And the Crown Royal that is being consumed in Canada is bottled out of Valleyfield, Quebec,” Charlebois said. He is currently a visiting scholar in food policy and distribution at McGill University.

“When you lose a customer like the LCBO, it will likely impact jobs in both Manitoba and Quebec. The LCBO is probably the largest client for the Valleyfield plant in Quebec,” he said.

“I suspect the Gimli plant is already talking to farmers, encouraging them not to change their minds, for example. Because right now, we’re in January, the ban could happen in February, and the last thing Gimli wants is to see a growing number of farmers giving up on the Gimli plant and planting something else.”

He added that it was likely that Gimli is “already working at supply chain, encouraging them, encouraging farmers to grow the supply they need to manufacture Crown Royal.”

It takes hundreds of Canadians to produce the Crown Royal whisky that appears on LCBO shelves, said United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Canada’s national president Barry Sawyer in an emailed statement to National Post. The UFCW represents the workers in Manitoba and Ontario.

“The plan to pull Crown Royal from the largest liquor market in Canada threatens these livelihoods, and attacks Canadian workers in a time when we need to stand together as a country,” said Sawyer.

The union told National Post that Diageo has not informed it of any “potential job losses at the Manitoba or Quebec distilleries, adding that “if cutbacks are proposed, our union will fight back.”

How are other provinces reacting?

Manitoba MP James Bezan urged Ford to “tear down interprovincial trade barriers and put Canada First.”

“Every drop of Crown Royal is made in Gimli, Manitoba using Manitoba grains and pure Interlake water. Our farmers and Crown Royal employees in Gimli are proud of their award winning whisky, Canada’s number one spirits export,” he wrote.

“If you go ahead with your threats, don’t be surprised if Manitoba pulls Ontario wine from our liquor markets.”

Ontario MP Roman Baber

agreed with Bezan on X

and pointed out “the harm” of Ford’s messaging.

In response to Baber, Bezan

posted on X again

, in agreement on Thursday morning: “This is a terrible decision by Doug Ford and will only hurt Canada. Does Ford want to start a trade war with other provinces or will he finally put Canada first? I’m sure he doesn’t want to see Ontario wine taken off the shelves in Manitoba.”

Not only could pulling Crown Royal from LCBO stores cause a battle between provinces, Charlebois said, it could also dissuade major companies from wanting to do business with Canada.

“Diageo is such a huge player. If a premier in Canada, if a country, allows to this to happen, and considers that political retaliation is fair game when a company makes a decision that actually irks a politician, it won’t be a good signal to send to the rest of the world when it comes to growing our economy, especially the agri-food economy,” he said.

Why did Ford decide to pull Crown Royal from LCBO stores?

Ford made headlines in September when

he poured out a bottle of Crown Royal

at a news conference in reaction to Diageo’s announcement that they would be closing its Ontario plant. This week, he told reporters that as soon as the plant closes, which is expected to be in February, he would pull the Canadian-made liquor from LCBO shelves.

“They’re doing a little production there in Quebec, too,” he said, “but it’s all a bunch of BS.”

He said that the entire production was likely to end up moving to Alabama, and that Diageo did not follow through on its plans for a distillery in St. Clair Township, in southwestern Ontario. The township’s mayor said the plans were still on hold as of August 2025, the

Windsor Star reported

.

“We’re going to bring new products, new opportunities to that jurisdiction and we’re going to move forward. As simple as that,” said Ford this week. “The message to everyone else: Don’t try to hurt Ontario, especially if we’re your number one customer. You’ll be held accountable.”

Speaking on Thursday,

Ford defended his decision

.

He was asked whether or not it should be up to Ontarians to decide what liquor to buy and was told that he has been accused of weaponizing the LCBO.

“I call it protecting jobs in Ontario. That’s what I call it. And we’re going to do everything we can to protect jobs. Why don’t people try J.P. Wiser? Why don’t we try some great Hiram Walker? Why don’t we go get some Forty Creek Whisky? I hear that’s really good stuff, too,” he said.

“So, when you want to … basically go after Ontarians and ship it down to the U.S., make no mistake about it. You think it’s going to Winnipeg. You think it’s going to Quebec. It’s going down to Alabama to be produced. And I will fight all day long to protect the jobs for Ontarians.”

In a

September 2025 news release

, Unifor, the union for the workers in Ontario, said it was “concerned that once Diageo alters the made-in-Canada process for Crown Royal, it will continue to shift jobs south of the border.”

Ford also commented on a discussion he had with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.

“He understands I got to protect jobs here. But I also informed them this is all going down to Alabama,” Ford said. “Whatever we’re producing here in Ontario, they aren’t going to make up the difference in Manitoba or Quebec. So, I got to protect Ontario as he wants to protect Manitoba”

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TORONTO, ONTARIO-WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 8, 2025—FINANCE—Pedestrians walk across Front Street at Bay Street in Toronto, Wednesday October 8, 2025. [Photo Peter J. Thompson/National Post] [Financial Post Story by TBA for Financial Post]

Numbers can tell a story. Canada is home to

41.58 million people

, according to the latest population estimates, and the

average age was 41.7.

At the time of the last census, just over half were women and girls, and just under half were men and boys. Of the nearly 30.5 million people 15 and older,

100,815

(0.33 per cent) were transgender or nonbinary. The average household size was 2.4 people.

Five per cent

of the population — 1.8 million people — self-identified as Indigenous. Almost

one-quarter

, or 8.4 million people, were immigrants, many hailing from the three leading places of birth: India, the Philippines and China. Of the

450-plus ethnic

or cultural origins reported, “Canadian” was tops at 5.7 million people.

The

last census

conducted by Statistics Canada in 2021, and released in stages throughout 2022, revealed the ways Canada stands out among the G7, including fastest population growth (mostly due to people moving here from elsewhere), most educated workforce (again, thanks in large part to immigrants), highest proportion of common-law couples and, at almost one-quarter, the highest proportion of foreign-born people who are now citizens.

In December, it was

revealed

that Canada’s population decreased for the first time in about five years — thanks again to immigration or, rather, a drop in its numbers. Driven by caps on international students and temporary foreign workers, the country’s population as of Oct. 1, 2025, declined by roughly 76,068 people, or 0.2 per cent, from July 1, when the population was estimated to be 41.65 million.

The story the numbers tell is just how diverse a country Canada is, and the ways that diversity continues to grow. So, who is Canada now? It’s impossible to answer in the singular.

“Canada has always been a country of diversity. We’ve always been a country with multiple nations, multiple languages, multiple ethnicities, multiple sources of newcomers,” says political sociologist Howard Ramos, a Western University professor. “I don’t think it’s a matter of saying, ‘Who is Canada?’ It’s some kind of plural version of the question: Who are Canadians?”

Lauren Bialystok, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, expresses a similar sentiment: “Canada is so hard to pin down, and that’s our strength — and it’s also a big challenge.”

Immigration patterns are shifting with nearly

two-thirds of recent immigrants born in Asia,

including the Middle East. Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians — just over 25 million people — reported being white, making the population

the majority

almost everywhere in the country, except for Vancouver (42 per cent), Toronto (40.7 per cent), the Northwest Territories (37.9 per cent) and Nunavut (10 per cent).

More than 95 per cent of visible minorities (non-white and non-Indigenous) lived in one of Canada’s 41 large urban centres. Toronto was home to the largest populations of South Asian, Chinese, Black, Filipino, West Asian, Latin American, Southeast Asian and Korean people, while the country’s largest share of the

Arab population

(35.5 per cent of that group) lived in Montreal.

Indigenous peoples were the

fastest-growing group

, with an eight per cent increase in people identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis between 2016 and 2021, compared with 5.4 per cent growth for the non-Indigenous population. They were also the youngest population group, with 41.2 per cent of Indigenous people under the age of 25 compared to 27.3 per cent of the non-Indigenous population.

Canadians are losing their religion like never before. More than one-third (roughly 12.6 million people) reported

being non-religious

, a proportion that more than doubled in 20 years (16.5 per cent in 2001 to 34.6 per cent in 2021). Most religious Canadians reported being Christian, at 53.3 per cent, but their numbers are shrinking, down from 77.1 per cent in 2001. Meanwhile, the proportion of the population who identified as Muslim (Islam was the second-most reported religion), Hindu or Sikh more than doubled in 20 years.

Canada’s aging population is accelerating. There are now more Canadian seniors 65-plus (8.1 million) than children 14 and under (6.3 million), according to

2025 population estimates.

Population aging goes hand-in-hand with fertility, and in 2024, Canada’s fertility rate reached a record low of 1.25 births per woman. Most of the country’s population growth — roughly 97 per cent — is through immigration. As society continues to age, immigration is expected to drive

100 per cent of growth by 2032

.

Canadians are as likely to couple up now as they were 100 years ago, with 57 per cent reporting they were part of one. Most couples live with a partner or spouse, with (25.3 per cent) or without (25.6) children. But at 29.3 per cent, the most common household is one-person dwellings, which hit an all-time high in the last census.

The census adapts as society shifts and tells us how much we’ve changed as a nation. The 2026 census count will begin in May, with the results likely to roll out in 2027. This year’s

long-form census questionnaire

— sent to 25 per cent of households — will include new content on sexual orientation for those 15 and older — “What is this person’s sexual orientation?” — along with homelessness and general health, among other changes to address data gaps.

People often ask Sébastien Larochelle-Côté, Statistics Canada’s director general of Socioeconomic Statistics and Social Data Integration, “What’s the use of the census?” Take homeownership rates, for example. The census provides information down to the lowest levels of geography, from the country’s largest cities to small towns and rural regions. “And it’s going to be different. It’s a very vast and diverse country. It deserves us to be looking at every corner and telling a story about each one of those places and wonderful areas,” says Larochelle-Côté.

Before we see how we’ve changed in the 2026 census, let’s take a look at who we are now.

(Unless otherwise noted, the source is Statistics Canada’s 2021 Census of Population.)

IMMIGRATION

Almost one-quarter (23 per cent) of the population were, or had been, a landed immigrant or permanent resident

Immigration continues to drive Canada’s growth. Nearly one-quarter (23 per cent) of the population were or had been a landed immigrant or permanent resident. Not only was this the highest among the G7, but it was also the largest share since Confederation.

Of Canada’s 8.4 million immigrants, India (10.7 per cent), the Philippines (8.6 per cent) and China (8.6 per cent) were the

top places of birth

.

As

immigration from Europe has declined

over the past 50 years (from 61.6 per cent in 1971 to 10.1 per cent in 2021), the share of new immigrants from Asia, including the Middle East, has increased. Asia is the leading continent of birth for new immigrants (62 per cent), and India is the top country, with nearly one in five (18.6 per cent) recent arrivals from there.

Most of the 1.4 million Southern Asian immigrants were from India (898,050), Pakistan (234,105), Sri Lanka (136,240) and Bangladesh (70,090). Of the one million immigrants born in Southeast Asia, the Philippines (719,580), Vietnam (182,095), Malaysia (25,060), Cambodia (23,065) and Thailand (17,410) were the top countries of origin. The majority of the 1.2 million Eastern Asian immigrants were from China (715,835), Hong Kong (213,855), South Korea (138,355), Taiwan (65,365) and Japan (30,870).

Of the 749,415 immigrants born in West Central Asia and the Middle East, Iran (182,940), Syria (97,595), Lebanon (95,730), Iraq (84,130) and Afghanistan (62,450) were the top five countries of origin.

The mix of where immigrants come from reflects fertility rates and excess population in other countries around the world, says Ramos. Canada used to be among a handful of countries trying to attract talented newcomers. The United Nations now projects that immigration will be the main source of population growth in 52 countries through 2054, including Canada.

“I’m very interested in the 2026 census, whether we see a bigger share of newcomers, not only from India, but also from some of the African countries, such as Nigeria, Ghana or Tanzania, that also have highly educated populations and would be viable economic migrants,” Ramos says.

As a demographer and associate professor at the University of British Columbia, Nathanael Lauster is also excited to see the 2026 census immigration data. “It does give us a much better picture, and a more holistic picture, of how immigration patterns have been reshaping Canada.”

Immigration used to primarily be a story of three cities — Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto — and, to a lesser extent, Calgary and Edmonton, says Larochelle-Côté. Today, Atlantic Canada is increasingly a draw, with the proportion of recent immigrants moving there nearly tripling in 15 years (from 1.2 per cent in 2006 to 3.5 per cent in 2021). “Is this going to begin to be more of a factor in smaller metro areas, for example?” says the StatsCan director, pondering the upcoming 2026 census.

In 2024, more than two in five newborns (42.3 per cent) had a foreign-born mother

Another way Canada’s population growth is tied to immigration is through the number of babies born to mothers from elsewhere, which is increasing the fertility rate.

Immigrants have more children than native-born people, though at fewer than two births per woman, they still have lower than replacement-level fertility, says demographer and sociologist Rachel Margolis, a professor at Western University. “So, it’s not solving our fertility crisis, but it’s increasing, on average, our fertility.”

According to a November 2025 Statistics Canada study,

more than two in five

(42.3 per cent) newborns in 2024 had a foreign-born mother. The report notes that without immigration, Canada would have had negative population growth since 2022.

“Immigration is really fuelling not just population growth, but also the economy, because immigrants are generally younger than the average Canadian. The average Canadian now is 41, and immigrants tend to be younger,” says Margolis.

Since the last census, “Canada became a migration country, not an immigration country,” says Ramos, referring to the number of

temporary residents

— largely international students — outpacing permanent ones. Temporary or non-permanent residents are foreign nationals permitted to stay in Canada for a limited time for study, work or asylum.

With the 2026 census, “We’ll be able to unpack temporary residents versus permanent residents and immigrants,” he adds. “Within the window between the two censuses, there was that growth, but there’s also been a curbing back of the admission numbers, the levels. So, it’ll be interesting to see how that pans out.”

ETHNOCULTURAL & RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY

Canadians reported more than 450 ethnic or cultural origins

The Canadian census has measured people’s origins and religions since 1871. In the most recent one, the population reported more than 450 ethnic and cultural origins, 200 places of birth, 100 religions and 450 languages. Among these origins, alone or with others, “Canadian” took the top spot at 5.7 million, followed by “English” (5.3 million), “Irish” (4.4 million), “Scottish” (4.4 million) and “French” (4.0 million).

Canada’s religious makeup is swiftly changing. Historical data shows that the country was once 97 per cent Protestant and Catholic, says Margolis. “Now, because the religious composition of immigrants is so different from the religious composition of native-born people, we’re seeing really fast increases in the Muslim community, in the Sikh community and the Hindu community, and this has really big implications for everything. I think that’s part of the story about how immigration is changing Canada and Canadian families.”

Just over

half the population reported a Christian religion

(53.3 per cent), down significantly from 77.1 per cent in 2001. With 10.9 million people, Catholics were the largest denomination of Christians.

In the last census, roughly 335,000 people
reported
 being Jewish by religion — a slight increase from 330,000 in 2001, but a smaller share of the overall population due to population growth: 1.1 per cent in 2001 to 0.9 per cent in 2021.
However, the census also counts people who identify as Jewish by ethnicity, regardless of their religious affiliation:
 282,000 people reported “Jewish” as their
ethnic or cultural origin
, some of whom didn’t identify a religion or reported a religion other than Judaism. 

Islam was the second-most common religion after Christianity — nearly 1.8 million, or one in 20, people reported being Muslim. The share of the population who reported being Muslim, Hindu or Sikh has more than doubled since 2001, rising from 2.0 to 4.9 per cent for Muslims, from 1.0 to 2.3 per cent for Hindus and from 0.9 to 2.1 per cent for Sikhs.

“In Canada, religion has become an important variable that’s at the centre of a lot of debates,” says Ramos, who notes that religion is also on the 2026 long-form questionnaire. “So, if you look at, for example, some of the secularization legislation in Quebec, it’s front and centre to public debates there.” He adds that the religious landscape is shifting with the country’s immigrant composition.

“When we look at some of the discrimination that’s been experienced over the last five years (or) post-October 7, as well as longer than that, 9/11, we see that religion becomes quite important, and it often intersects with newcomers from different parts of the world,” says Ramos.

Yet, overall, more than one-third (roughly 12.6 million people) of Canadians reported being non-religious, a proportion that has more than doubled in 20 years (16.5 per cent in 2001 to 34.6 per cent in 2021).

AGING & FERTILITY

More than one in five (21.8 per cent) persons of working age were aged 55 to 64

The age of the working population reached an all-time high, and more than one in five (21.8 per cent) of those Canadians were aged 55 to 64. “You’re talking about your workforce. So that means that these people are essentially thinking about their retirement,” says Larochelle-Côté.

“You have one-fifth of the Canadian population. One-fifth means one-fifth of your economic output, one-fifth of your productivity, one-fifth of your corporate experience, one-fifth of everything, looking at the exit door.”

Nearly one in five (19 per cent) — seven million people — were 65 or older in 2021, an increase of 16.9 per cent since 2016. The age group will grow to nearly one-quarter in 10 years. Over the next 25 years, the population

aged 85 and older could triple

to almost 2.5 million people, as the baby boomers turn 85.

Population aging has wide-ranging effects, says Margolis. “This is the first time that I feel like all of Canada’s problems aren’t economic problems. They’re actually demographic problems.”

Supporting an ever-aging population has implications for health care, housing and the economy, she says. “When more money goes to support older people, we have less money for things that go to younger people. Like our daycare programs, our primary schools, our secondary schools, our labour force training programs, our universities, etc.,” says Margolis.

“These are all really important economic issues around aging, and Canada has chosen to deal with them by trying to solve our population’s potential decline with immigration. But all of these demographic and economic issues (are related).”

Canada’s total fertility rate reached a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024

Low fertility causes population aging, says Margolis. “It leads to smaller cohorts of young people, and you end up having a greater proportion of the population that’s old relative to young.” Now in Canada, there are more people aged 65 and over than under 14.

In 2024, Canada’s

total fertility rate

reached a record low of 1.25 births per woman. A century ago, Canadians had, on average, just over three children. The fertility rate increased in the 1950s to nearly four kids. In the 1970s, it plummeted to roughly 1.7, where it hovered until the Great Recession hit in the late 2000s.

“There’s been a really big decline just in the last 15 to 18 years,” says Margolis. “And the reason why that’s important is that it took us from kind of low fertility to very, very low fertility. And the problem with very, very low fertility is that without large immigration, it leads to pretty rapid population decline and pretty rapid population aging, which changes the needs of where we put resources.”

Economics is part of the picture — birth rates tend to go down during financial downturns — but there’s also more freedom in how people choose to see their lives, says Margolis. “Younger generations, they say they want fewer kids … They say it’s less important for them to get married than it used to be. And I think that younger people feel more uncertain about what their path is.”

FAMILIES, HOUSEHOLDS & MARITAL STATUS

Multigenerational households grew by 21.2 per cent in a decade

At 83.6 per cent, married or common-law couples form the most common family structure in Canada, with an even split between those without children (41.8 per cent) and those with children (41.8 per cent). One-parent families made up the difference at 16.4 per cent.

But the Canadian family is also becoming more diverse, says Margolis, with more complex living arrangements, such as co-parenting, coming into focus. “There’s so much diversity in how kids live,” says Margolis. “That’s not something that Canadian data measures very well, and it’s a big problem. We have a lot of stepfamilies in Canada. We have a lot of multigenerational households in Canada, and this diversity is not a bad thing.”

Reliable co-parenting figures may be lacking, but there’s excellent data on

multigenerational households

(at least three generations of the same family living together), says Margolis. In the most recent census, 2.4 million people in Canada lived in a multigenerational household, representing 6.5 per cent of all persons living in a private household.

Two-fifths (40.5 per cent) of people in multigenerational households were born outside Canada, and this living arrangement was most common among people with roots in South Asia. According to a 2025 Statistics Canada study, the prevalence of multigenerational households varies widely, with one in four (24.9 per cent) in Nunavut living in one compared to 3.1 per cent of Quebecers.

Some of these are households of choice, adds Lauster at the University of British Columbia. But in many other cases, parents who can’t find housing of their own for reasons including high rent or shortages, have returned to living with their parents and brought their kids with them. “Those are the situations where, if we had more housing, people would be a little bit more free to live the way they want.”

One-person households (29.3 per cent) were the most common type Canada-wide

The proportion of people living alone has reached an all-time high: 4.4 million people, up from 1.7 million in 1981. Even with this increase, Canada had the second-lowest share of one-person households among the G7.

One-person households

(29.3 per cent) were the country’s most common type, followed by couples without children (25.6 per cent) and couples with children (25.3 per cent).

“Solo households have been the most common household type in Canada since 2016,” says Margolis. “You have people living alone at all different parts of the life course for different reasons. So, people are getting married later, and people in midlife might never be married or divorced or separated. And then you have a lot of older people who live alone.”

Most solo households are in older age groups, but they’re on the rise in midlife. The number of people aged 35 to 44 living alone doubled from 1981 to 2021 (five per cent to 10 per cent), while the proportion of women 65 and older living alone has gradually declined, which Statistics Canada attributes to a narrowing in the life-expectancy gender gap.

The areas of the country with the highest and lowest rates of private households are directly related to the availability of affordable housing. Quebec, where rents are lower, had the most (19 per cent). Nunavut, where housing is scarce, had the least (eight per cent).

Roommates were the fastest-growing type of household

The family form is shifting, with alternatives such as

living with roommates

becoming more prevalent. Though they represent just four per cent of all Canadian households, living with roommates (two or more people not in a census family) was the fastest-growing type from 2001 to 2021 (up 54 per cent), a trend Lauster attributes to the housing crisis.

“For many people, that’s an important connection,” Lauster says. “A lot of people actually really value their roommates, really love living in social situations. But certainly, in terms of its rise as a proportion of households overall, we get a real sense that that’s about the housing shortage. That, indeed, a lot more of these people would be living independently if they could afford to do so.”

After climbing since 2001, the share of 20- to 34-year-olds who lived with at least one of their parents has levelled off at more than one-third (35.1 per cent). But Statistics Canada notes there was a shift to older age groups. Nearly half (46 per cent) of young adults who lived with their parents were aged 25 to 34, a 21 per cent increase in 20 years.

Lauster says this is also likely due to the lack of housing. “You can see a very clear relationship, using the census data, between things like local rents and how households are doubling up.”

In an effort to understand the scope of homelessness in areas large and small, two new questions about the issue will be on the 2026 census. The first asks whether people have “stayed in a shelter, on the street or in parks, in a makeshift shelter, in a vehicle or in an abandoned building” over the previous year. The second asks if people have stayed with friends, family or others because they had nowhere else to live.

GENDER DIVERSITY

Canada the first to provide census data on transgender and nonbinary people

Canada made history as the

first country

to collect and publish census data on gender diversity. The 2021 census included a new question on gender for people aged 15 and older and added the specificity of “at birth” to the question of sex.

(Statistics Canada defines gender as “an individual’s personal and social identity as a man, woman or nonbinary person” and sex as “typically assigned at birth based on a person’s reproductive system and other physical characteristics.”)

Bialystok, at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, says this inclusion is a step in the right direction from a research perspective, for accurate data collection. “It also sends a signal that this is something the country cares about, that this country is aligned with our peers in prioritizing sex and gender as something that we protect from discrimination and that we consider essential to human rights,” she adds. “How that actually plays out, and what you can and can’t do with statistics and the way the census is actually administered, are separate questions.”

Even in the five years since the last census, there’s been “a real explosion” in the number of terms used to describe people’s gender, as well as the understanding of what those terms mean. Nevertheless, Bialystok says the census content on gender is a good first step. “The intentions are to continue to make Canada a more inclusive and progressive place. It’s not the end of the story. Collecting the information doesn’t, in and of itself, prevent discrimination or make people’s lives better. But it’s an important start.”

Ramos expects one of the biggest stories of the 2026 census to be self-identification shifting as the political climate has moved away from equity, diversity and inclusion. “South of the border, there’s already some evidence that with the Trump administration, fewer people are identifying as trans,” says Ramos. “It’ll be very interesting to see whether that number remains constant or declines, as we see in some of the data that’s coming from the U.S.”

The 2021 census was also the first to provide data on gender-diverse couples, an example of how the census evolves. Twenty years earlier, the 2001 census was the first to include data on same-sex common-law couples; the 2006 census on same-sex married couples. Of the 8.6 million couples in Canada in 2021, 32,205 included at least one transgender or nonbinary person.

The gender-diverse population is younger overall. The share of transgender and nonbinary people was three to seven times higher for Gen Z and millennials than for older groups.

In the last five years, Bialystok says that the number of young people identifying as trans, nonbinary or genderqueer has grown exponentially. “Even people in the field don’t really know how to explain it, but it’s important to capture, and it’s important to understand what this kind of data collection does and doesn’t mean. Because it doesn’t mean that we’ve necessarily identified the essence of people which will stay the same, and somehow, there are five times more trans people now than there were five years ago. What it means is that there are rapidly evolving cultural norms and opportunities for young people, especially, to express their gender in more nuanced ways than they were able to previously.”

The administration of the census matters, perhaps even more in 2026, adds Bialystok. If a parent is filling out the questionnaire on behalf of a youth, there’s a higher likelihood of underrepresentation or misrepresentation.

Bialystok notes that trust is key. “I think Canada is one of the best places in the world to be if you’re trans or something, but you don’t have to look very far — like just look at the U.S. — to see how quickly a crackdown can happen. And if you start offering to the government, ‘I was born this sex, and now I’m this,’ for some people, especially if they’re in other groups that make them vulnerable, I think that would really give them pause. So, it’s not just adults reporting for youth, and people not being out in their families, but it’s people perhaps not wanting to be out to the government or not knowing how the data is going to be used.”

LANGUAGE

One in four Canadians (nine million people) had a mother tongue other than English or French

While English and French are still the main languages — more than nine in 10 Canadians regularly speak one of them at home —

linguistic diversity is growing

. One in four Canadians (nine million people) had a mother tongue other than English and French, a record high since the government added the question to the census in 1901.

From 2016 to 2021, the proportion of people who mainly speak a non-official language at home increased by 16 per cent, from four million to 4.6 million people. South Asian languages such as Malayalam (+129 per cent), Hindi (+66 per cent), Punjabi (+49 per cent) and Gujarati (+43 per cent) experienced the biggest growth, at a rate “at least eight times larger than that of the entire Canadian population,” according to Statistics Canada.

Besides English and French, Mandarin (531,000 speakers) and Punjabi (520,000 speakers) were the most commonly spoken languages at home.

Mandarin was the primary non-official language

in Toronto and Vancouver, where more than one in four people mainly spoke a non-official language at home.

From 2016 to 2021, the number of Punjabi speakers grew by half (+49 per cent), while Mandarin speakers experienced a more moderate increase (+15 per cent), due to shifting immigration patterns.

More than 70 Indigenous languages spoken in Canada

More than

70 Indigenous languages

were spoken at the time of the last census. While the number of people who learned the language as a second language increased — to 27.7 per cent of Indigenous language speakers from 24.8 per cent in 2016 — the number of Indigenous people reporting being able to have a conversation in an Indigenous language declined by 4.3 per cent.

Onowa McIvor Whitinui, a professor and President’s Chair for Research in the University of Victoria’s Indigenous Education department, has worked in language revitalization, policy and planning for more than 20 years. McIvor Whitinui notes that the oldest generation of Indigenous people is the largest group holding Indigenous languages. Anecdotally, communities have reported losing speakers in recent years. At the same time, the bump in the younger generation of Indigenous language learners suggests that education programs are starting to take hold.

“Although it’s sad and it’s hard when our oldest people and those knowledge holders are passing on, the encouragement of seeing an increase in those statistics in that younger generation of learners tells a really important story, too.”

Graphics by Brice Hall / National Post


Court records don't note the appearance of the toy dinosaur involved in the daycare incident, but it might have looked something like this.

Usually, if a child swats another child with a toy dinosaur, it does not cause catastrophic injury.

Usually, if a child gets hurt at a daycare, it is the daycare owners who get dragged into court.

And usually, if someone goes to court claiming someone else owes them thousands of dollars to compensate for a finger that three years ago was “essentially severed at the bone but still attached,” they bring along some medical records to illustrate such a gruesome claim.

A court case newly decided in Grande Prairie, Alta., bucked all these trends.

It also offered what a judge called a “quite rare” instance of child litigants squaring off against each other in civil court, a nine-year-old suing an 11-year-old for the tort of an injury at daycare.

This type of lawsuit raises all sorts of problems, the trial judge noted, including concerns about a child’s capacity to make decisions and to give voluntary consent to assuming the risks of litigation, which can often involve paying the other side’s legal costs if you lose.

The plaintiff did lose here, as it turned out, but no costs were ordered against him. He is still only 13 years old. His finger has healed nicely.

Fortunately, there were no $1,000-an-hour hotshot litigators involved when the trial of Elijah Dominic Robinson against Xavier Fellin went ahead last month before Judge Brian Robert Hougestol of the Alberta Court of Justice in Grande Prairie.

Procedural rules required that each child had a litigation representative: Nsamba Mamisa Robinson for Elijah, and Courtney and Josh Fellin for Xavier. But the action was formally child versus child. The decision does not say if the litigation representatives were the children’s parents, or other relatives.

“Although not now relevant, I will say that if liability was found, the damages sought would have been $10,000.00 in general damages plus out-of-pocket expenses,” the judge wrote.

The plaintiff Elijah testified, but the judge found his descriptions of the incident were “not very detailed,” as he was trying to remember events from three years previously when he was younger. His mother also testified, and so did the mother of the defendant Xavier.

At issue was a dispute over a toy dinosaur that took place between the two boys at 11 o’clock in the morning on Aug. 9, 2022, at a daycare in Grande Prairie run by a non-governmental organization that has since closed down. Neither boy previously knew the other very well.

The judge does not record what sort of dinosaur this was, whether fictional like Barney or historical like triceratops, but he does describe the toy evocatively as “about the size of a 500ml water bottle.”

A “swatting match” ensued, in which the defendant Xavier used the toy to “strike at” the plaintiff Elijah, the younger boy. The dinosaur hit his hand, causing what the judge accepted was a “serious dislocational fracture” to the ring finger on Elijah’s right hand, which required surgery or else the finger “would apparently have been lost.”

“Unfortunately,” the judge wrote, “no actual hospital or doctor’s records were produced.”

Justice Hougestol walked himself through the legal issues

in his recent judgement

.

There was no evidence the defendants parents, who were later added to the case as co-defendants, did anything wrong. They did not give the boy a dangerous weapon, there was no lack of supervision, no encouragement, and no evidence of bad parenting.

Elijah’s mother, as the judge put it, “seemed fixated” on the fact that Xavier’s parents did not contact her after the injury.

This might have been “polite and courteous,” the judge observed, but there was no legal obligation. The daycare likewise shared no information because of privacy or liability reasons. It was an “awkward situation,” the judge noted, but “failure to make that contact or to offer to “help out” does not found legal liability.”

For Xavier’s part, the judge found his swatting with the dinosaur was not part of “any concerted or intentional assault” on Elijah. In the end, he decided this was a “highly accidental fluke from children engaging in typical enough child activities.”

“Reasonable people expect the possibility of children having minor disagreements and minor altercations,” the judge wrote. “Children in these situations are within the expected scope of risk of injury, especially a difficult to foresee risk. For these reasons I dismiss the Plaintiff’s claim against the minor child.”

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