As the U.S.-Iran conflict pulls eyes to the Middle East, Canadians need to maintain a steady gaze north. When it comes to protecting sea lanes, not all the action is in the Straits of Hormuz. At the recent NATO summit in Turkey, Canada and its allies pledged to strengthen maritime security in the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. But dealing with Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian Arctic ambitions will require Canada to act at home and abroad.

Russia is determined to control access, setting the terms for exploiting regional shipping and resources. It wants to extend command over stretches of Arctic water , with little justification under international law. If Canada wants stronger maritime security — as the Canadian Coast Guard’s transfer to the Department of National Defence last September suggests — it must grasp Russia’s Arctic plans and the long-term persistent threat they pose.

The Arctic is central to Russia’s deepening partnership with China and its broader authoritarian agenda. Moscow is courting Chinese investment while giving Beijing access denied by Arctic democracies. China is using Arctic waters to diversify its export routes while gaining experience operating in the region. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says that both countries are increasing their espionage activities.

Russia’s strategy is layered presence and power. The most lethal layer is its navy’s formidable nuclear submarines — and yet another one of these is under construction . Another is positioning the paramilitary Russian Coast Guard to exert control over access to the Northern Sea Route, which runs north of Russia and borders on the United States in the east and Norway in the west.

Civilian fleets are in on the act, including Russia’s eight nuclear icebreakers, with three more under construction. They are core to Russia’s commercial pitch to promote Arctic shipping year-round — and its assertion of power in the region.

Fishing fleets and cargo ships add to the picture. Russia just launched its second homebuilt ice-class liquefied natural gas carrier; these vessels are suspected of smuggling and of having security service oversight. Russian fishing companies have been sanctioned by Norwegian and European Union authorities for possible espionage and infrastructure sabotage.

Russia is forging an economic model around these sea lanes. Its proposed “Transarctic Transport Corridor” would connect southern industrial centres and Siberian resource projects to foreign markets through the Northern Sea Route. The seabed is also on the agenda — offshore drilling and underwater mining are supposed to alleviate dwindling resources on land.

Propaganda wraps all these layers. Putin’s regime pretends it has a plan for the economy’s future, all running through the north. It portrays Arctic sea lanes as a frontier for national greatness, where trailblazing women captain nuclear icebreakers and where Russians develop innovative technologies like electric vehicles. At the same time, state media deride any Canadian, U.S. or Danish development in the North American Arctic as inherently hostile, a “bridgehead” to threaten Russia — despite almost three decades of its own Arctic military buildup .

Multiple factors hinder these grandiose ambitions. Sanctions limit access to foreign polar tech and know-how. Ukrainian drones batter Russian shipyards. Nearly half of the state budget may be going to military expenditures and the Ukraine war.

But whatever setbacks Russia incurs, it will prioritize Arctic power.

That’s because complex elite networks extending well beyond the Kremlin’s walls drive these policies. In addition to the large energy, mining, nuclear energy and shipbuilding sectors that extract the region’s wealth, regional governments, civil society groups and the Russian Orthodox Church promote national dominance in the north. Even after the war in Ukraine or Putin’s exit from the scene, Moscow is likely to augment its power in Arctic waters — its elites are not about to lose interest.

Canada is one of Russia’s primary strategic competitors, not just for resources and sea lanes, but for Arctic legitimacy. Russia’s multilayered capabilities will set an authoritarian tone for the region’s development if Canada doesn’t get its house in order.

Arctic maritime security therefore calls for an all-of-society strategy. New Canadian Coast Guard icebreakers and Royal Canadian Navy submarines will offer flexible tools to monitor and manage activity. Community-grounded institutions on remote coasts like the Canadian Coast Guard Auxiliary and the Canadian Rangers can inform smarter operations. Arctic science is also important in creating strong fundamentals for security policy.

Our ace card is democracy. Russia’s Arctic strategy is a top-down authoritarian affair. In Canada, formulating security with provincial, territorial and Indigenous partners optimizes our presence in the region. If done well, it lends a legitimacy that no Kremlin propaganda will match.

National Post

Alexander Dalziel is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Sergey Sukhankin is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

As the U.S.-Iran conflict pulls eyes to the Middle East, Canadians need to maintain a steady gaze north. When it comes to protecting sea lanes, not all the action is in the Straits of Hormuz. At the recent NATO summit in Turkey, Canada and its allies pledged to strengthen maritime security in the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. But dealing with Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian Arctic ambitions will require Canada to act at home and abroad.

Russia is determined to control access, setting the terms for exploiting regional shipping and resources. It wants to extend command over stretches of Arctic water , with little justification under international law. If Canada wants stronger maritime security — as the Canadian Coast Guard’s transfer to the Department of National Defence last September suggests — it must grasp Russia’s Arctic plans and the long-term persistent threat they pose.

The Arctic is central to Russia’s deepening partnership with China and its broader authoritarian agenda. Moscow is courting Chinese investment while giving Beijing access denied by Arctic democracies. China is using Arctic waters to diversify its export routes while gaining experience operating in the region. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says that both countries are increasing their espionage activities.

Russia’s strategy is layered presence and power. The most lethal layer is its navy’s formidable nuclear submarines — and yet another one of these is under construction . Another is positioning the paramilitary Russian Coast Guard to exert control over access to the Northern Sea Route, which runs north of Russia and borders on the United States in the east and Norway in the west.

Civilian fleets are in on the act, including Russia’s eight nuclear icebreakers, with three more under construction. They are core to Russia’s commercial pitch to promote Arctic shipping year-round — and its assertion of power in the region.

Fishing fleets and cargo ships add to the picture. Russia just launched its second homebuilt ice-class liquefied natural gas carrier; these vessels are suspected of smuggling and of having security service oversight. Russian fishing companies have been sanctioned by Norwegian and European Union authorities for possible espionage and infrastructure sabotage.

Russia is forging an economic model around these sea lanes. Its proposed “Transarctic Transport Corridor” would connect southern industrial centres and Siberian resource projects to foreign markets through the Northern Sea Route. The seabed is also on the agenda — offshore drilling and underwater mining are supposed to alleviate dwindling resources on land.

Propaganda wraps all these layers. Putin’s regime pretends it has a plan for the economy’s future, all running through the north. It portrays Arctic sea lanes as a frontier for national greatness, where trailblazing women captain nuclear icebreakers and where Russians develop innovative technologies like electric vehicles. At the same time, state media deride any Canadian, U.S. or Danish development in the North American Arctic as inherently hostile, a “bridgehead” to threaten Russia — despite almost three decades of its own Arctic military buildup .

Multiple factors hinder these grandiose ambitions. Sanctions limit access to foreign polar tech and know-how. Ukrainian drones batter Russian shipyards. Nearly half of the state budget may be going to military expenditures and the Ukraine war.

But whatever setbacks Russia incurs, it will prioritize Arctic power.

That’s because complex elite networks extending well beyond the Kremlin’s walls drive these policies. In addition to the large energy, mining, nuclear energy and shipbuilding sectors that extract the region’s wealth, regional governments, civil society groups and the Russian Orthodox Church promote national dominance in the north. Even after the war in Ukraine or Putin’s exit from the scene, Moscow is likely to augment its power in Arctic waters — its elites are not about to lose interest.

Canada is one of Russia’s primary strategic competitors, not just for resources and sea lanes, but for Arctic legitimacy. Russia’s multilayered capabilities will set an authoritarian tone for the region’s development if Canada doesn’t get its house in order.

Arctic maritime security therefore calls for an all-of-society strategy. New Canadian Coast Guard icebreakers and Royal Canadian Navy submarines will offer flexible tools to monitor and manage activity. Community-grounded institutions on remote coasts like the Canadian Coast Guard Auxiliary and the Canadian Rangers can inform smarter operations. Arctic science is also important in creating strong fundamentals for security policy.

Our ace card is democracy. Russia’s Arctic strategy is a top-down authoritarian affair. In Canada, formulating security with provincial, territorial and Indigenous partners optimizes our presence in the region. If done well, it lends a legitimacy that no Kremlin propaganda will match.

National Post

Alexander Dalziel is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Sergey Sukhankin is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

A New Brunswick politician has chalked up a dubious world’s first for Canada by apparently reading out AI prompts in an official speech.

In a June 9 speech to the legislative assembly, Progressive Conservative Bill Oliver read out the following line from a prepared text: “Here’s a more natural flowing version of that section that reads like a legislative speech rather than a series of short points.”

While it’s certainly not the first time a politician has been caught using AI to write a speech, this does appear to be the first time that the politician in question didn’t bother to remove the telltale signs of the act before reading the speech into the public record.

See the gaffe (and others like it) in the video above, or read the transcript, below.

This is Canadian politician Bill Oliver.

“Here’s a more natural flowing version of that section that reads like a legislative speech rather than a series of short points.”

This is from a June 9 speech delivered in the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly. And it seems to be Oliver reading out the prompts from an AI engine.

What’s more, he did it several times throughout the speech. Three times, to be precise. Here are the other two.

“This version should … here’s a more developed and flowing version of the section.”

“This section ends roughly …”

And, since we can now assume at least some of the speech was written by an AI engine, it does indeed carry many of the hallmarks of AI-generated copy.

One classic trait of AI-written content is that it’s repetitive, and often relies on formulaic bullet points. And there’s a lot of formulaic bullet points in this speech.

“Participation is not the same thing as decision-making. Representation is not the same thing as authority. Advocacy is not the same thing as the power to alter rates.”

“Affordability is the defining issue of our time. Seniors. Families. Small businesses. It affects farmers. It affects young people trying to purchase their first homes.”

AI engines are also notorious for writing copy that is technically correct — at least in an orthographic sense — but doesn’t actually have any real substance.

That’s true of a lot political speeches, I guess, but there’s a whole five minute section in which Oliver just outlines how governments work.

“The reality is that every decision made by government carries a cost. Every office requires resources. Every organization structure requires support. Every new administrative body regardless of how well-intentioned not only to establish itself, but to sustain itself.”

Oliver, a Progressive Conservative, sits in the opposition benches. And the whole point of this speech was to criticize a bill that would create a new government position known as the energy sector consumer advocate.

But several sections of it become extremely ironic given that we can now assume it was probably created by a computer.

At multiple points, Oliver expounds about his solemn duty to do his work as a legislator. Rather than, say, outsourcing it to an AI engine.

“Our duty is to look beyond the press release, beyond the talking points, and beyond the title of the bill itself.”

Also, this is a key point: Oliver doesn’t seem to be aware that he’s reading out AI prompts. And neither is anybody else in the Legislative Assembly.

He’s delivering a speech to whole rows of rival politicians who would benefit greatly from making him look foolish, and they’re apparently so tuned out to what he’s saying that not a single one of them caught it in the moment.

It wouldn’t be until weeks after the fact that this would be brought to public attention largely thanks to a post on the New Brunswick subreddit.

Now unfortunately, this has rapidly become one of the most widely circulated pieces of parliamentary discourse in New Brunswick history, if not Canadian history.

Clips of Bill Oliver reading the AI prompts have been viewed millions of times all over the world, and been featured in viral posts by tech websites such as Ars Technica and Futurism.

And according to ArsTechnica, this is a dubious Canadian world record of sorts. Plenty of politicians, including Canadian politicians, have been caught using AI to write speeches or campaign literature.

But this is history’s first known instance of a politician reading out the AI prompts in a public speech without even realizing they were doing it. There will probably be many more.

Stop talking and look seriously into camera.

A New Brunswick politician has chalked up a dubious world’s first for Canada by apparently reading out AI prompts in an official speech.

In a June 9 speech to the legislative assembly, Progressive Conservative Bill Oliver read out the following line from a prepared text: “Here’s a more natural flowing version of that section that reads like a legislative speech rather than a series of short points.”

While it’s certainly not the first time a politician has been caught using AI to write a speech, this does appear to be the first time that the politician in question didn’t bother to remove the telltale signs of the act before reading the speech into the public record.

See the gaffe (and others like it) in the video above, or read the transcript, below.

This is Canadian politician Bill Oliver.

“Here’s a more natural flowing version of that section that reads like a legislative speech rather than a series of short points.”

This is from a June 9 speech delivered in the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly. And it seems to be Oliver reading out the prompts from an AI engine.

What’s more, he did it several times throughout the speech. Three times, to be precise. Here are the other two.

“This version should … here’s a more developed and flowing version of the section.”

“This section ends roughly …”

And, since we can now assume at least some of the speech was written by an AI engine, it does indeed carry many of the hallmarks of AI-generated copy.

One classic trait of AI-written content is that it’s repetitive, and often relies on formulaic bullet points. And there’s a lot of formulaic bullet points in this speech.

“Participation is not the same thing as decision-making. Representation is not the same thing as authority. Advocacy is not the same thing as the power to alter rates.”

“Affordability is the defining issue of our time. Seniors. Families. Small businesses. It affects farmers. It affects young people trying to purchase their first homes.”

AI engines are also notorious for writing copy that is technically correct — at least in an orthographic sense — but doesn’t actually have any real substance.

That’s true of a lot political speeches, I guess, but there’s a whole five minute section in which Oliver just outlines how governments work.

“The reality is that every decision made by government carries a cost. Every office requires resources. Every organization structure requires support. Every new administrative body regardless of how well-intentioned not only to establish itself, but to sustain itself.”

Oliver, a Progressive Conservative, sits in the opposition benches. And the whole point of this speech was to criticize a bill that would create a new government position known as the energy sector consumer advocate.

But several sections of it become extremely ironic given that we can now assume it was probably created by a computer.

At multiple points, Oliver expounds about his solemn duty to do his work as a legislator. Rather than, say, outsourcing it to an AI engine.

“Our duty is to look beyond the press release, beyond the talking points, and beyond the title of the bill itself.”

Also, this is a key point: Oliver doesn’t seem to be aware that he’s reading out AI prompts. And neither is anybody else in the Legislative Assembly.

He’s delivering a speech to whole rows of rival politicians who would benefit greatly from making him look foolish, and they’re apparently so tuned out to what he’s saying that not a single one of them caught it in the moment.

It wouldn’t be until weeks after the fact that this would be brought to public attention largely thanks to a post on the New Brunswick subreddit.

Now unfortunately, this has rapidly become one of the most widely circulated pieces of parliamentary discourse in New Brunswick history, if not Canadian history.

Clips of Bill Oliver reading the AI prompts have been viewed millions of times all over the world, and been featured in viral posts by tech websites such as Ars Technica and Futurism.

And according to ArsTechnica, this is a dubious Canadian world record of sorts. Plenty of politicians, including Canadian politicians, have been caught using AI to write speeches or campaign literature.

But this is history’s first known instance of a politician reading out the AI prompts in a public speech without even realizing they were doing it. There will probably be many more.

Stop talking and look seriously into camera.

Members of the Canadian Jewish community, particularly in Toronto, are apoplectic with rage after a pair of bagel shops were damaged on Sunday, in what police are investigating as an antisemitic hate crime.

One of the bakeries, in the beating heart of midtown Toronto, was hit by gunfire. The other is located at the northern tip of Toronto and is rich with Jewish heritage. Both are owned by Kiva’s Bagel Bakery and Restaurant, a beloved Toronto institution that has been cherished by many, including myself, for decades.

I have been getting together with friends or relatives for a “nosh” at Kiva’s on a semi-regular basis for many years. So, yes, I am infuriated, too.

“This is utterly reprehensible,” said Michael Levitt, former Liberal MP and now president of the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center. Incidents such as these, Levitt added, “deepen fear and reinforce why so many in our community feel increasingly vulnerable.… Condemnations are not enough. The Jewish community needs more than expressions of concerns. It needs results.”

The thing is, Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed two months ago to develop a “whole-of-government approach to antisemitism to ensure federal policies, workplaces, public safety programs and community initiatives are aligned in protecting Jewish Canadians and confronting hate.” Carney appointed an advisory council with what he said was a “clear mission” to combat antisemitism.

And what have we heard from the council so far? Crickets. What actions has the council taken? As far as we know, zilch. What results are we seeing? More attacks against Jewish businesses.

While Jewish organizations applauded Carney for setting up a council to address hate and the scourge of rising antisemitism, most could not understand why he would appoint individuals such as Omar Alghabra to it. Alghabra, a former Liberal MP, was once the president of the Canadian Arab Federation, which, after his tenure, advocated against listing Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.

Hamas and Hezbollah, of course, terrorize Israel and aim to eliminate the Jewish state and all Jews. CLARITy Coalition Canada circulated a petition shortly after the council was announced, asking Carney to reconsider his choices. The prime minister did not heed the advice.

“We condemn yet more violent attacks on the Canadian Jewish community,” Hadassah Goldberg of CLARITy told me on Monday. “These attacks are not only on Jews but on Canada’s values and our democracy itself. (There has) not been a word from the advisory committee on rights, equality and inclusion, who are now responsible for determining the causes of antisemitism in Canada.…

“As we have previously noted, this committee has members with no qualifications in issues of antisemitism and members whose prior associations should have disqualified them.”

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow wrote on X that the attacks on Kiva’s were “vile and unacceptable,” and thanked Toronto police for investigating, but most of the replies to her post blamed her for contributing to the antisemitism in Toronto by failing to support the Jewish community. Replies were subsequently disabled on the thread.

“Makes sense,” replied Rebel News founder Ezra Levant. “People would point out that you literally refuse to stand with Toronto’s Jews. You go anywhere with an open bar but you boycott Jewish events. Because you’ve done the math and you realize you need the pro-Hamas vote to win.”

Toronto, sadly, has deteriorated into a cesspool of antisemitism and hate. On Monday, Toronto Sun columnist Warren Kinsella cited statistics showing that there were more antisemitic incidents in Canada than anywhere else in the world last year, and that Toronto is the worst city within Canada.

Conservative MP Roman Baber shared a video on social media of what he called “Islamist thugs outside” a residence for Jewish seniors in Toronto. “It’s not free speech,” Baber said, “it’s harassment & intimidation, the same day two bakeries are attacked.”

Robert Walker of Honest Reporting Canada told me the attacks on the bakeries, if determined to be anti-Jewish hate crimes, “would be the latest in such attempts to harass the Jewish community and would represent an assault on all civilized Canadians.”

But he added: “Rather than shine a light on the real threats facing Canada, including Islamic radicalism and the Iranian regime’s tentacles in Canada, much of the news media has instead fixated on regurgitating pro-Palestinian talking points.”

Toronto Coun. Brad Bradford, who’s running against Chow in the upcoming mayoral election, said on X that he is huddling with Jewish community leaders to tackle antisemitism.

“Toronto’s Jewish community deserves more than just thoughts and prayers,” he wrote. “Toronto is not going to remain a city where Jewish store owners sweep up broken glass. We will sweep it up together.… Indifference is indictment.”

Here’s hoping the Toronto police find the individual or individuals responsible for the attacks on Kiva’s and bring them to justice. It would relieve at least some of the apoplexy in the community and let us eat our Kiva’s bagels with some peace of mind.

National Post

• Jesse Kline: Carney admits antisemitism ‘crisis,’ but won’t do much about it
• Marty York: The Muslim and Arab Canadians who can’t stand Carney’s inaction on Jew-hate

Members of the Canadian Jewish community, particularly in Toronto, are apoplectic with rage after a pair of bagel shops were damaged on Sunday, in what police are investigating as an antisemitic hate crime.

One of the bakeries, in the beating heart of midtown Toronto, was hit by gunfire. The other is located at the northern tip of Toronto and is rich with Jewish heritage. Both are owned by Kiva’s Bagel Bakery and Restaurant, a beloved Toronto institution that has been cherished by many, including myself, for decades.

I have been getting together with friends or relatives for a “nosh” at Kiva’s on a semi-regular basis for many years. So, yes, I am infuriated, too.

“This is utterly reprehensible,” said Michael Levitt, former Liberal MP and now president of the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center. Incidents such as these, Levitt added, “deepen fear and reinforce why so many in our community feel increasingly vulnerable.… Condemnations are not enough. The Jewish community needs more than expressions of concerns. It needs results.”

The thing is, Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed two months ago to develop a “whole-of-government approach to antisemitism to ensure federal policies, workplaces, public safety programs and community initiatives are aligned in protecting Jewish Canadians and confronting hate.” Carney appointed an advisory council with what he said was a “clear mission” to combat antisemitism.

And what have we heard from the council so far? Crickets. What actions has the council taken? As far as we know, zilch. What results are we seeing? More attacks against Jewish businesses.

While Jewish organizations applauded Carney for setting up a council to address hate and the scourge of rising antisemitism, most could not understand why he would appoint individuals such as Omar Alghabra to it. Alghabra, a former Liberal MP, was once the president of the Canadian Arab Federation, which, after his tenure, advocated against listing Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.

Hamas and Hezbollah, of course, terrorize Israel and aim to eliminate the Jewish state and all Jews. CLARITy Coalition Canada circulated a petition shortly after the council was announced, asking Carney to reconsider his choices. The prime minister did not heed the advice.

“We condemn yet more violent attacks on the Canadian Jewish community,” Hadassah Goldberg of CLARITy told me on Monday. “These attacks are not only on Jews but on Canada’s values and our democracy itself. (There has) not been a word from the advisory committee on rights, equality and inclusion, who are now responsible for determining the causes of antisemitism in Canada.…

“As we have previously noted, this committee has members with no qualifications in issues of antisemitism and members whose prior associations should have disqualified them.”

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow wrote on X that the attacks on Kiva’s were “vile and unacceptable,” and thanked Toronto police for investigating, but most of the replies to her post blamed her for contributing to the antisemitism in Toronto by failing to support the Jewish community. Replies were subsequently disabled on the thread.

“Makes sense,” replied Rebel News founder Ezra Levant. “People would point out that you literally refuse to stand with Toronto’s Jews. You go anywhere with an open bar but you boycott Jewish events. Because you’ve done the math and you realize you need the pro-Hamas vote to win.”

Toronto, sadly, has deteriorated into a cesspool of antisemitism and hate. On Monday, Toronto Sun columnist Warren Kinsella cited statistics showing that there were more antisemitic incidents in Canada than anywhere else in the world last year, and that Toronto is the worst city within Canada.

Conservative MP Roman Baber shared a video on social media of what he called “Islamist thugs outside” a residence for Jewish seniors in Toronto. “It’s not free speech,” Baber said, “it’s harassment & intimidation, the same day two bakeries are attacked.”

Robert Walker of Honest Reporting Canada told me the attacks on the bakeries, if determined to be anti-Jewish hate crimes, “would be the latest in such attempts to harass the Jewish community and would represent an assault on all civilized Canadians.”

But he added: “Rather than shine a light on the real threats facing Canada, including Islamic radicalism and the Iranian regime’s tentacles in Canada, much of the news media has instead fixated on regurgitating pro-Palestinian talking points.”

Toronto Coun. Brad Bradford, who’s running against Chow in the upcoming mayoral election, said on X that he is huddling with Jewish community leaders to tackle antisemitism.

“Toronto’s Jewish community deserves more than just thoughts and prayers,” he wrote. “Toronto is not going to remain a city where Jewish store owners sweep up broken glass. We will sweep it up together.… Indifference is indictment.”

Here’s hoping the Toronto police find the individual or individuals responsible for the attacks on Kiva’s and bring them to justice. It would relieve at least some of the apoplexy in the community and let us eat our Kiva’s bagels with some peace of mind.

National Post

• Jesse Kline: Carney admits antisemitism ‘crisis,’ but won’t do much about it
• Marty York: The Muslim and Arab Canadians who can’t stand Carney’s inaction on Jew-hate

This year, Canada’s population decreased , the first time since Confederation 160 years ago.

The reasons vary, but include a reduction in mass immigration, a very low birthrate and a stagnant economy sending ambitious Canadians to — horror of horrors! — the brutal nation just to the south.

Demographic decline has spread across much of Europe, East Asia and increasingly even developing countries, a demographic implosion that will shape our political and economic life for decades to come. Roughly two-thirds of countries experience fertility rates below 2.1, the level needed to replace the current population.

In the next quarter century, estimates the IMF, China’s population will drop by 155.8 million, Japan 18 million, Russia 7.9 million, Ukraine 7 million, South Korea 6.5 million and Italy 7.3 million.

Canada, as of now, is projected to experience some marginal growth . But with a fertility rate almost half that needed to replace the population, Canada, notesThe Catholic Register , is now “fertile ground for population collapse.”

Canada’s birth decline is precipitous even by western standards, with a fertility rate lower than the U.S., France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The current trajectory puts us on track with Japan, the poster child for population decline.

Population has long been a challenge for Canada, as the country has struggled to populate its vast, bountiful territory. Even during the early days of New France, relatively few came to the country and once the British took over, growth came from mostly high fertility rates.

Immigrants from Ireland and the other British Isles boosted Canada’s population followed by migration from central and eastern Europe in the late 19th and early 20th century. But the U.S . — except during the Civil War or after immigration restrictions placed in 1924 — has tended to get the lion’s share of immigrants, largely due to more fertile land, a stronger economy and better weather, at least in places.

In the past decade, the mainstream Canadian establishment has had an answer to this dilemma: immigration . But this has not helped staunch a low birthrate or made the country any more cohesive. It also did not prevent the country from suffering the slowest economic growth rates among advanced countries.

Europe may be Prime Minister Mark Carney’s beloved role model, but it shows the futility of mass immigration, particularly from developing countries. Throughout the continent, newcomers are far more dependent on welfare transfers than natives. In Spain, the rate of poverty for immigrants from outside the continent, mostly Latin America and Africa, is roughly three times that of native population.

Similarly, in Canada, one in five recent immigrants now suffers “deep poverty” — an income below 75 per cent of the poverty line — compared to only five per cent of the whole population. Many emigrants seem increasingly reluctant to adopt Canadian social and civic norms. A welcoming and tolerant country, for example, has turned into one of the world’s hotbeds of antisemitism .

Not surprisingly, the tide is turning against mass migration, not only in the United States, but also in the U.K ., Netherlands, France , and Germany, whose welfare state is creaking under the burden. This opposition is rising even in developing countries — mostly former colonies — such as South Africa , Turkey , Pakistan , Uganda , Egypt , Kenya and Ethiopia .

In Canada, too, opposition to unrestrained mass immigration has grown so fierce that cuts are being imposed by the current Liberal government, run by the ultimate globalist.

Clearly, immigration is not the solution to the demographic dilemma. The real long-term issue deals with an extraordinarily low birthrate, made worse by poor prospects faced by many native-born Canadians.

The pain is felt most, as in other western societies, by the domestic working class. Since many of the recent newcomers are poor and ill-educated, a recent King’s Trust report suggests young native-born Canadians are competing increasingly against recent immigrants at the low end of the job market. In the U.S., a recent congressional study shows mass immigrant tends to slow wage growth at the lower ranks. As millions have left the country, working-class wages have begun to grow faster than for the already affluent.

Rather than looking abroad for salvation, Canada might prioritize getting its disengaged workforce back towards employment. In Canada , up to one quarter to one-third of the population under 30 is neither in school nor a job. More than 800,000 young Canadians aged 15 to 29 are neither employed nor engaged in education or training, a detachment from the labour force that has grown markedly since 2022, one of the peak years of Canadian immigration.

This mismatch of native workers and jobs drives fertility rates down. Many young people who are failing to launch, notes the recent King’s Trust report , have seen the elimination of full-time work. A 2026 study by the Fraser Institute found that 437,000 people aged 15 to 24 looked for a job but could not find one last year, up 57 per cent from 2022. Fourteen per cent of Canada’s workforce is under 25 but they account for twice as large a percentage of the unemployed.

Then even if they get jobs, few young Canadians can afford the country’s housing market, which has soared in part due to immigration , particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Real Estate Magazine estimates that the number of homeowners aged 18 to 34 plunged by 21 per cent over the past three years — from 47 per cent in 2021 to just 26 per cent today.

Housing costs, particularly for single-family homes, have long been a factor influencing fertility rates. The current decline in housing starts won’t make things any easier.

Not surprisingly, young, and ambitious Canadians are heading south of the border — even under the odious Trump — in growing numbers. Last year saw the largest exodus to the U.S. in decades. To be sure America also has ultra-expensive areas like California and New York City, but the economic growth is now largely concentrated in booming cities in the American sunbelt, where prices tend to be lower.

Ultimately, Canada cannot seriously address its demographic problem through immigration alone. Instead, steps need to be taken to reduce the cost of housing, promote more vigorous economic growth, including raising the retirement age , and shifting immigration policy to favour those who can contribute materially to the nation. Rather than looking abroad for solutions, priority should be placed on helping young people to ensure a Canadian future worth having.

National Post

• Jamie Sarkonak: Why the B.C. Law Society walked back claims of buried children
• Geoffrey Moyse: Haida land deal enabled by legal subterfuge

This year, Canada’s population decreased , the first time since Confederation 160 years ago.

The reasons vary, but include a reduction in mass immigration, a very low birthrate and a stagnant economy sending ambitious Canadians to — horror of horrors! — the brutal nation just to the south.

Demographic decline has spread across much of Europe, East Asia and increasingly even developing countries, a demographic implosion that will shape our political and economic life for decades to come. Roughly two-thirds of countries experience fertility rates below 2.1, the level needed to replace the current population.

In the next quarter century, estimates the IMF, China’s population will drop by 155.8 million, Japan 18 million, Russia 7.9 million, Ukraine 7 million, South Korea 6.5 million and Italy 7.3 million.

Canada, as of now, is projected to experience some marginal growth . But with a fertility rate almost half that needed to replace the population, Canada, notesThe Catholic Register , is now “fertile ground for population collapse.”

Canada’s birth decline is precipitous even by western standards, with a fertility rate lower than the U.S., France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The current trajectory puts us on track with Japan, the poster child for population decline.

Population has long been a challenge for Canada, as the country has struggled to populate its vast, bountiful territory. Even during the early days of New France, relatively few came to the country and once the British took over, growth came from mostly high fertility rates.

Immigrants from Ireland and the other British Isles boosted Canada’s population followed by migration from central and eastern Europe in the late 19th and early 20th century. But the U.S . — except during the Civil War or after immigration restrictions placed in 1924 — has tended to get the lion’s share of immigrants, largely due to more fertile land, a stronger economy and better weather, at least in places.

In the past decade, the mainstream Canadian establishment has had an answer to this dilemma: immigration . But this has not helped staunch a low birthrate or made the country any more cohesive. It also did not prevent the country from suffering the slowest economic growth rates among advanced countries.

Europe may be Prime Minister Mark Carney’s beloved role model, but it shows the futility of mass immigration, particularly from developing countries. Throughout the continent, newcomers are far more dependent on welfare transfers than natives. In Spain, the rate of poverty for immigrants from outside the continent, mostly Latin America and Africa, is roughly three times that of native population.

Similarly, in Canada, one in five recent immigrants now suffers “deep poverty” — an income below 75 per cent of the poverty line — compared to only five per cent of the whole population. Many emigrants seem increasingly reluctant to adopt Canadian social and civic norms. A welcoming and tolerant country, for example, has turned into one of the world’s hotbeds of antisemitism .

Not surprisingly, the tide is turning against mass migration, not only in the United States, but also in the U.K ., Netherlands, France , and Germany, whose welfare state is creaking under the burden. This opposition is rising even in developing countries — mostly former colonies — such as South Africa , Turkey , Pakistan , Uganda , Egypt , Kenya and Ethiopia .

In Canada, too, opposition to unrestrained mass immigration has grown so fierce that cuts are being imposed by the current Liberal government, run by the ultimate globalist.

Clearly, immigration is not the solution to the demographic dilemma. The real long-term issue deals with an extraordinarily low birthrate, made worse by poor prospects faced by many native-born Canadians.

The pain is felt most, as in other western societies, by the domestic working class. Since many of the recent newcomers are poor and ill-educated, a recent King’s Trust report suggests young native-born Canadians are competing increasingly against recent immigrants at the low end of the job market. In the U.S., a recent congressional study shows mass immigrant tends to slow wage growth at the lower ranks. As millions have left the country, working-class wages have begun to grow faster than for the already affluent.

Rather than looking abroad for salvation, Canada might prioritize getting its disengaged workforce back towards employment. In Canada , up to one quarter to one-third of the population under 30 is neither in school nor a job. More than 800,000 young Canadians aged 15 to 29 are neither employed nor engaged in education or training, a detachment from the labour force that has grown markedly since 2022, one of the peak years of Canadian immigration.

This mismatch of native workers and jobs drives fertility rates down. Many young people who are failing to launch, notes the recent King’s Trust report , have seen the elimination of full-time work. A 2026 study by the Fraser Institute found that 437,000 people aged 15 to 24 looked for a job but could not find one last year, up 57 per cent from 2022. Fourteen per cent of Canada’s workforce is under 25 but they account for twice as large a percentage of the unemployed.

Then even if they get jobs, few young Canadians can afford the country’s housing market, which has soared in part due to immigration , particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Real Estate Magazine estimates that the number of homeowners aged 18 to 34 plunged by 21 per cent over the past three years — from 47 per cent in 2021 to just 26 per cent today.

Housing costs, particularly for single-family homes, have long been a factor influencing fertility rates. The current decline in housing starts won’t make things any easier.

Not surprisingly, young, and ambitious Canadians are heading south of the border — even under the odious Trump — in growing numbers. Last year saw the largest exodus to the U.S. in decades. To be sure America also has ultra-expensive areas like California and New York City, but the economic growth is now largely concentrated in booming cities in the American sunbelt, where prices tend to be lower.

Ultimately, Canada cannot seriously address its demographic problem through immigration alone. Instead, steps need to be taken to reduce the cost of housing, promote more vigorous economic growth, including raising the retirement age , and shifting immigration policy to favour those who can contribute materially to the nation. Rather than looking abroad for solutions, priority should be placed on helping young people to ensure a Canadian future worth having.

National Post

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