Attempts at peace in Ukraine are being drowned out in a war of words between Washington and Moscow. Donald Trump’s charm offensive with Vladimir Putin offering unilateral concessions with nothing in return — all carrots, no sticks — has been a dismal failure. The U.S. president has made empty threat after empty threat regarding imposing further sanctions as leverage to secure movement, but his tactic of mollycoddling the Russian leader, while basically ignoring Ukraine, is bordering on farce. Trump pressures Ukraine, the victim, erratically but bizarrely not Russia, the invader.
Bullying rhetoric has not worked either. When Trump bluntly urged Putin to “STOP” massive drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians weeks ago, followed by a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19, Russia intensified its attacks. After the call, Trump issued an
on Truth Social claiming Russia and Ukraine “would immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire.” But nothing happened. According to the Russian version of the call, Trump “expressed his position on the cessation of hostilities” whereas Putin noted tellingly that Russia is intent on “
” of the crisis. In other words, Ukraine must accept Russian hegemony, a position that Moscow has held to unflinchingly. Trump’s persistent threats of additional sanctions are hollow. He clearly prefers strong words over concrete deeds.
Most recently, Trump
the Russian leader of “playing with fire,” adding “What Vladimir Putin does not realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD.” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and Putin stooge, Dmitry Medvedev,
on X with the tired whinge, “I only know of one REALLY BAD thing … WWIII. I hope Trump understands this,” and Trump then again backed off sanctions. The president’s bombastic tweets are not working.
Many observers sense that Trump is being gamed by Putin. (At one point Trump acknowledged that Putin may be “tapping us along.”) The Russian leader will never give up his ultimate objective, reintegrating Ukraine into the Russian Federation. He is confident that Russia is winning the war despite casualties numbering a million or more, and believes that the West, especially the U.S., will tire of the war and that Trump will terminate military support to Ukraine and abandon his pursuit of peace.
Why Trump is soft on Putin is inexplicable. Some claim he is trying to wean the Russian leader away from the strengthening axis with China, but Chinese President Xi Jinping is in the driver’s seat on that relationship, not Putin. Others suggest he believes there are bright prospects ahead for an economic partnership with Russia. Trump needs to learn that, on the vital issues of war and peace, deeds are more productive than bombast, and shared values are paramount. His tactics have produced no discernible benefits for the Ukrainians and have undermined not enhanced America’s global leadership role.
As David Ignatius
in The Washington Post: “Unless Trump finally delivers on his threats, he has folded his hand on what could be the most damaging failure of his presidency.”
The normally subservient Republican Senate may act on its own with further sanctions on Russia. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has 82 co-sponsors on a bill that would target countries that buy Russian oil with 500 per cent tariffs. Energy sales are Putin’s financial lifeline. Combined with new sanctions, the bill would provide arms to Ukraine when the current supply runs out — action that could compel some accommodation by Putin. The question is whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune will bring the bill to the Senate floor and oblige president Trump to accept the hard reality of Mr. Putin’s ambitions.
As a Wall Street Journal May 26
, Trump and his advisers “fancy themselves as steely-eyed realists on foreign policy.” But on Putin, they “are starry-eyed idealists, mouthing ‘peace’ as if they can make it happen by wishing it were so.” The lack of a coherent strategy for peace is obvious and ambiguity only strengthens Putin’s weak hand.
The restless Europeans are trying to fill the moral and strategic vacuums created by Washington. On May 20, the EU announced its 17th
restricting Russian access to battlefield technologies and curbing its energy resources. They target explicitly Russia’s “shadow fleet” of old oil tankers, their operators and major oil producers like Surgutneftegas.
On the military side, NATO allies are conducting joint exercises in the Nordic and Baltic regions to deter Russia and improve integration, drawing specifically on NATO’s newest members — Sweden and Finland. Gotland, a Swedish island, is a
for NATO and is undergoing unprecedented rearmament to become a hub for logistics and defence, adding sensors and long-range weapon systems to support air and sea operations in the Baltic region.
On May 28 Germany
support for Ukraine’s production of long-range missiles, adding there would be “no more range limitation for weapons delivered to Ukraine,” a move that could pave the way for delivery of the long-requested Taurus cruise missiles — a joint German–Swedish product having a range of over 500 kilometres. Germany also confirmed that it will finance a significant portion of Starlink satellite coverage in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is
its military strategy from grinding trench warfare during much of the conflict with Russia to drones as substitutes for people, and advanced electronic warfare in a time of layered defence and long-range conventional precision strikes. Ukraine is on track to produce more than 2.5 million drones per year, providing low-cost devices to limit Russian drone and missile attacks.
The confusing U.S. position on Russia and Ukraine should be a major topic when G-7 leaders meet in Kananaskis, Alta., from June 15 to 17. In preparatory meetings among ministers, the U.S. representatives sternly rejected calls for action against Russia. If the U.S. Senate approves sanctions, that would provide a needed rallying point for a firm consensus. Otherwise, Trump will be left to explain why he chooses to dishonour the U.S.-led western commitment to Ukraine that has prevailed for more than three years of war.
Ukraine’s spectacular attack that demolished one-third of Russia’s long-range bomber fleet on Sunday illustrates that Volodymyr Zelenskyy does have “cards to play” after all.
National Post
Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989 to 1993.