No one knows how the second Trump administration will ultimately turn out for the U.S. and for the wider world. Perhaps it will end with foreign dictators humbled, America resurgent, and the long march of the left through the institutions finally in reverse. But so far, the new Trump ascendancy could easily leave conservatism discredited. Certainly, it’s already been a key factor in the defeat of conservative parties in Canada and Australia. Hence the question: how should conservative political parties respond to the Trump phenomenon in order to keep their character while maximizing their chances of electoral success?
Whatever reservations conservatives might have had about his character, Donald Trump’s re-election was an energizing moment for conservative political movements. And the new administration’s domestic program: controlling the border, making government more efficient, repudiating “wokery”, and continuing the use of fossil fuels is a robustly conservative one. But the new administration’s foreign agenda: imposing punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, claiming that Ukraine had somehow “started” the war with Russia, and seemingly wanting to do “deals” with dictators, has not only been at odds with America’s global “brand” as the benign superpower, and deeply unsettling to America’s allies; but also jarred with the general conservative view that alliances are to be nurtured and that the Anglosphere is “family.”
The first time the president called then-Canadian prime minister “Governor Trudeau,” it was the kind of crude quasi-humour that’s become a Trump trademark towards political opponents. Even referring to Canada as the 51st state might have worked once or twice as commentary on how much better-off Canadians could be if their politics has been less consistently centre-left. But the constant demeaning references to Canada, coupled with the threats to seize Greenland, were not only deeply offensive to Canadians, in particular, but made the president look little better than a hemispheric Putin, in wanting to coerce all his neighbours, only not by force.
Then there were the tariffs. These made sense against communist China, America’s great geo-strategic challenger, that’s been exploiting freer trade in order to de-industrialize the West. But against Canada and Mexico, one a NATO ally, and both parties to the revised NAFTA deal, that Trump 1.0 had described as the “best ever”; against Britain, America’s number one security partner; and against Australia, America’s number two security partner, and a free trade partner under a deal finalized in 2004, the Trump tariffs, even if on-again, off-again as some kind of bargaining tactic, looked irrational, even malignant. The idea that trade is a zero-sum game and that trade deficits are somehow a sign that your country is being ripped-off is simplistic nonsense.
If the president wanted Canada to spend more on defence, he should have said so behind closed doors and made a public statement against security free-riders. If he wanted Australia to end bans on U.S. beef imports, he should have said so behind closed doors and made a public statement that Australia preaches free trade but doesn’t always practise it. Instead, there were a series of capricious rhetorical escalations and de-escalations, that Australia’s prime minister said, mildly enough under the circumstances, were “not the action of a friend.”
As a consequence of the Trump tariff wars, Canada’s conservative opposition leader went from being 20 points ahead in the polls to a narrow loss in April’s election. And Australia’s conservative opposition leader went from being competitive in the polls to a massive defeat last month. Despite Pierre Poilievre’s fierce repudiation of the insults against Canada, and despite Peter Dutton’s insistence that he would prevent U.S. tariffs against Australia, voters saw both as guilty by association. Donald Trump was a right-winger, many voters’ reasoning ran; Poilievre and Dutton were right-wingers, therefore both were somehow “mini-Trumps” who might be just as erratic should they gain office. Naturally, the Liberals in Canada, and Labor in Australia, revelled in attacking their “Trump-like” opponents.
Conservative leaders’ best response to the president’s “America first,” verging on “everyone else last,” foreign policy is to declare that their first duty, likewise, is to their own country. After all, seeing one’s own country as a “shining city on a hill” and even as “the last best hope of mankind,” to use Ronald Reagan’s rhetoric, is the hallmark of conservative leaders. A deep patriotism is at the heart of all conservative thinking.
A key difference between this president and his predecessors is that his love of America does not so readily extend to an embrace of America’s like-minded allies; or to using American soft and hard power to extend American values throughout the world. Loyalty, sentiment, high-mindedness, and a “love that pays the price” count for little with a transactional administration, even though it’s America’s readiness, up till now, to keep the world safe for democracy that’s made it so widely admired.
A smart move by conservatives would be to push for much deeper cooperation between the other members of the Anglosphere. After all, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (the CANZUK countries) are all members of the Five Eyes security partnership and are all now members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade deal. If America’s security guarantees are weakening, there’s a strong argument for Britain, supported by Canada and Australia, to step up; especially if the wider world is to continue to reflect the long Anglo-American ascendancy rather than a new Chinese one. And there’s every reason to think that the current centre-left British, Canadian and Australian governments would be amenable to working more closely together on global issues if Trump’s America is starting to go missing.
It was always a mistake to see Reagan-Thatcher conservatism as exclusively, or even mainly, economic. Those two conservative titans respected freer markets as the best means of securing individual prosperity and national strength, not as ends in themselves. They supported smaller government and greater freedom because it’s strong citizens rather than a nanny state that creates the best society. They saw love of country, a commitment to excellence, and personal responsibility as the key to a strong social fabric; much more so than “equalizing” taxes and over-generous, incentive-sapping social welfare. Their record was freer trade with like-minded democracies, rather than with geo-political rivals; and of boosting local industry via robust competition and domestic deregulation rather than government subsidy.
Whether it’s Trump Derangement Syndrome or the almost equally prevalent Trump Fascination Syndrome, the U.S. president’s out-sized political personality is denying oxygen to everyone and everything that’s not referencing him. Because America matters, and because the president has so much sway over what America does, the wild ride will continue. But what counts, in the end, is less what someone else does, that’s up to him; and more what we do, that’s up to us. Conservatives should respectfully dissent from any rogue actions by the current administration, while remembering that there will be a new one within four years. Donald Trump is just one manifestation of American conservatism, not the embodiment of it. And in the meantime, conservative leaders should get on with devising a credible policy agenda for their own countries and relentlessly making the case for change with their own voters.
Tony Abbott was prime minister of Australia from 2013-15.