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It would be foolish for anyone, politician or pundit alike, to underestimate the campaign skills of Justin Trudeau in the upcoming election.

He remains the country's most formidable political warrior on offer, even with the shackles of SNC firmly bound upon him now.  Though, with this current crop of prime ministerial contenders, perhaps the compliment isn't saying as much as it otherwise would have in previous eras of Canadian history.

Still, this accolade on Trudeau's behalf may seem a bit much for some observers. 

Especially as just four years ago, Justin Trudeau was the brash and untested leader of a third party caucus in the corner of the House of Commons.

But now though, Justin is the veteran of the party leaders (notwithstanding Elizabeth May and her caucus of two).  Of course, at the mere age of 47, Trudeau is still quite young by historical standards.  But against his two fresh-faced opponents, Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh, Trudeau is practically the wizened elder of Canadian politics.  After all, both Scheer and Singh are only just barely 40 years of age. 

It is not so much Justin Trudeau's age which is to his advantage over Scheer and Singh, but rather, his electoral experience over both federal party leaders. 

Take for instance the fact that neither Conservative nor NDP leader have ever managed a national cross-country election campaign something Trudeau did four years ago with great success. 

It's one of Trudeau's most important assets moving forward, which must not be forgotten by his political rivals if they are to hope to defeat him. 

And hope they must.

For what's often foolishly overlooked is that Justin Trudeau is an undefeated political champion.  And he has been ever since he began his political career.

In 2007, Trudeau sought the Liberal nomination in the Quebec riding of Papineau.  He faced competing bids from Mary Deros, a city councillor, and Basilio Giordano, a local newspaper publisher, but nonetheless secured the candidacy.

Then, in the 2008 election, he defeated incumbent Vivian Barbot in what was a Bloc Quebecois stronghold up until that point to become Member of Parliament for the first time. 

And in the 2011 election, Trudeau won his re-election, even as the Liberals were reduced to their worst showing in the party's history.

The following year, Justin Trudeau revitalized the demoralized spirit of his party by defeating Conservative senator Patrick Brazeau in a much publicized boxing match and fundraiser for cancer research.  The victory helped propel Trudeau to contest the leadership of the Liberal Party in 2013, again, something he won with great ease.

Finally, in his first general election as party leader in 2015, Justin Trudeau made history by propelling his third-party Liberals into government with a majority mandate. 

It's certainly an impressive record once reviewed in its totality.

And while four years of governing has scraped off much of the "sunny" from his "sunny ways", Trudeau remains the man to beat.

Some critics will no doubt refute this assertion.

Many will cite Trudeau's proneness for foolish gaffe-making as completely undermining of his political effectiveness.

Yet Trudeau's penchant for verbal blunders is hardly the political kryptonite his opponents have made it out to be.

Gaffes hardly ever are.

One need only observe Joe Biden's success in the United States.  He remains ahead in all the polls and is the reigning front-runner for the Democratic nomination, even with his own countless gaffes. 

Furthermore, as much as Trudeau's gaffes have may have hindered him, his ability to speak off-script and with spontaneity has proven one of his greatest strengths.  It's for that very reason that Trudeau conducts his many town-hall speaking events every time his government needs a wave of positive press coverage.

Critics of Justin Trudeau should really get over their life long dismissal of the man.  He may be the privileged and handsome son of a former prime minister, but he is also more than the spoiled and pampered dauphin that they make him out to be.  Well, at least on his good days.  And judging by his long history of electoral triumphs, he's had quite a few good ones.

As the election campaign draws ever near, Scheer and Singh would do well to remember this.  Underestimating Trudeau is a luxury neither leader can afford.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Pundits, journalists and academics can sometimes overcomplicate the game of politics.

The fact is, it really isn't all that difficult; indeed in a lot of ways, political strategy is actually pretty basic.

For instance, the late Arthur Finkelstein, my personal mentor, who also happened to be a legendary American political consultant, used to say there are four and only four resources in politics.

Those resources, in no particular order, are: money, people, candidates and time.

That's it.

To be successful, all a political campaign needs to do is properly manage those four assets.

With that in mind, and with a federal election just days away, I thought it'd be fun to compare how the three major Canadian political parties are doing when it comes to these four essential resources, since maybe that will give us an idea as to who will come out on top once the electoral dust has settled.

So let's go through each resource one by one and assess how each party fares:

Money

Money is the lifeblood of politics. You need it to pay for all the stuff that goes into running a campaign: commissioning polls, renting office space, printing lawn signs, chartering buses, etc.  As someone once put it, "You can't change the world if you can't pay the rent."  But what money mainly does is allow a campaign to disseminate its message through paid advertising.  And yes, that's a key to winning.  Having the best message in the world won't matter a bit for a political party, if it can't put that message in front of voters.

And when it comes to this resource, the Conservative Party has the advantage.  As a matter fact, according to media reports the Conservatives enjoyed the best second quarter fundraising effort in their history, raking in $6,045,466.  Says the CBC:  "Never before has the party raised this much outside of an election year."  Meanwhile, during the same period the Liberals took in $3,099,218 and the NDP raised a paltry $872,401.

What this means is the Conservatives will have more financial flexibility when it comes to producing ad campaigns; they can experiment and fine tune their messaging because they can afford it.

People

When Finkelstein talked about people being a "resource", he meant organizations or ideological groupings or various other voter "tribes" that identify with a candidate or with a party and who can thus underpin that party or candidate's structural base.  For example, Pierre Trudeau did better among Quebeckers than he did among Albertans; Barack Obama did better among African-Americans than among non-African Americans, Green Parties do better among environmentalists than they do among non-environmentalists and so on.

At any rate, in my view the Liberals have the edge when it comes to this resource.  Simply put, there are more Liberal "people" than Conservative "people" in Canada's voting universe.  Hence Trudeau's path to victory will be secured if he can get his people out to vote, i.e. Quebecers, millennials, progressives.  If he can't do this, if his base fragments and wanders off to the NDP or to Greens or if they stay home, Trudeau is in trouble.

Candidate

It should go without saying, of course, that the candidate, the person holding the party's banner, is also an extremely important resource.  But what makes for a good candidate?  Well, lots of things.  What's the candidate's background?  Does he or she have name recognition?  What about looks? (And yes looks do matter.)  Is the candidate good looking or ugly, tall or short, young or old?

Again, in my opinion, the Liberals score better when it comes to this resource.  Yes, Trudeau's image and brand have taken a beating over the past year or so, but relatively speaking he's still more charismatic, more exciting and more well-known than his main challenger, Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer.

Time

Of the four resources in politics, Finkelstein believed time was the most important.  After all, time allows a campaign to build up all the other resources, to raise money, to create identification with voter groups and to craft a brand and image for the candidate.   And time is a finite resource.  When it's gone it's gone.

The way I see it, all the parties squandered this particular resource.  The Liberals spent a big chunk of the year making a mess out of the SNC-Lavalin scandal, the Conservatives failed to use their time to define their leader and the NDP wasted the past year wallowing in irrelevance.

This means every party will have to make the best use of the little time they have left.

So to sum up, the Liberals seem to have a better candidate and more people, the Conservatives have more money, and the NDP seems doomed.

What to make of all this?

Well, if the Conservatives are going to win, they'll need to use what time they have left to deploy their money in a way that degrades Trudeau's candidacy and turns his people away from him.

Like I said earlier, politics ain't that complicated.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.