Shortly after Justin Trudeau's 2015 election victory, pundits in the media began obsessing over the Liberal's polling numbers, wondering when the honeymoon with voters would come to an end.  After all, such high levels of popularity could not go on forever.  Like Icarus flying too close to the sun, Justin would surely succumb to hubris and tumble back down to earth.

Well, the honeymoon has long since been over.  And now, pollsters and pundits discuss the possibility of a Liberal minority or even a Conservative win this fall. 

Perhaps disappointment is an eventuality in politics.  As Robert Browning wrote, "a man's reach should exceed his grasp."  The same is true for politicians. 

Yet the Liberal's drastic reversal in popularity represents something far more disillusioning than mere disappointment with the limitations of government. 

As Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has crassly betrayed the trust of many of the voters who stood by him in 2015.  The duplicity over electoral reform was perhaps the most noteworthy example.  Retaining omnibus bills and lying about the size of its deficits are others.  It must be becoming harder to say with a straight face that "Canada is back."

Politics is a deeply personal affair.  By breaking so many promises, Justin Trudeau was also breaking hearts.

It's in the Liberal DNA.  Commonly known as "campaigning from the left, then governing from the right."

Maybe he learnt from his father.  Pierre was a man who broke many hearts, and not just of the many women whom he dated.

Nonetheless, Pierre had a lasting hold amongst millions of Canadians.  One that allowed for his routine forgiveness.

In his first term in office, Pierre was confronted with the escalating violence of the Front de liberation du Québec.  To counter the terrorist threat, he invoked the War Measures Act.  While the decision to do so cemented his "tough guy" image, he ultimately lost the support of many young and progressive-minded voters.  Hell hath no fury, like a voter scorned.  By the next election, the Liberals were reduced to a precarious minority government. 

And yet, two years later, the electorate forgave Pierre and rewarded the Liberals with a second majority in 1974.

By 1979, Canadians had again become disenchanted with Trudeau Sr.  Most notably, Pierre had cynically broken his word by embracing wage and price controls.  As retribution, voters forced him into early retirement. 

Mere months with the Tories though, and the electorate had a change of heart.  After Joe Clark's budget failed to pass in the House of Commons, Pierre returned from the political wilderness and was rewarded with his third and final majority.

It's not at all certain his son will be given the same clemency.

Colourful socks and appearances on GQ magazine will not save Justin's political fortunes.  Just as Pierre's romantic dalliances with Barbara Streisand and Margot Kidder did not save his.  Celebrity, like infatuation, is shallow and fleeting.

The lesson to be learnt from Pierre Trudeau's political longevity, lies instead with his unshakeable conviction on the issues that mattered most to him.  When it came to bilingualism, patriation, the Charter, and Quebec's place in Canada, Pierre Trudeau was unflinching in his beliefs.  No apologies, back-tracking or capitulation.

Nor did any level of opposition daunt Pierre, as witnessed when he boldly spoke out against the Charlottetown Accord as a private citizen.  The accord had the backing of Brian Mulroney's federal government, the media, big business, countless academics and all ten provincial premiers.

No matter.  By conclusion of the referendum, Pierre's convincing arguments against Charlottetown carried the day.  He succeeded, as he almost always did, in securing the public's support.  Once the pain of heartbreak had dulled and the glamour faded, respect for the man and his conviction endured long afterwards.

Alas, his son has yet to show the same grit.

After back-tracking upon his unreserved welcome of refugees, waffling on an arms deal to Saudi Arabia and adopting the Conservative's emission targets, it increasingly appears Justin will compromise on any principle.  Especially once the political pressure has shaken his nerve.

And while Justin's steadfast support for abortion services is admirable, he faces no effective political opposition in this country.  Neither Andrew Scheer, nor Maxime Bernier, have shown any willingness to claw-back these services.

If Justin wants a second chance, he will need to earn back the public's respect.  And that means demonstrating some of his dad's steely-eyed conviction, no matter the opposition. 

Maybe then Canadians will forgive Justin, as they forgave his father.