CALGARY — Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says it would be shocking to the average American to see the United States invade Canada.

Dunleavy made his remarks in an onstage discussion at the Global Business Forum in Banff, Alta., days after Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times that his government has studied the “extreme tail risk” of U.S.-led military action in Canada.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted he wants to make Canada the 51st state, but has said he would do so through economic coercion.

Dunleavy, a Republican, says there’s “zero chance” that the United States would contemplate a military incursion, and that “Pennsylvania has a better chance of being invaded by West Virginia.”

Jody Thomas, who was national security and intelligence adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau, calls a U.S. invasion “an improbable, slightly impossible” notion.

She told the forum that in such an unlikely event, negotiations would kick into high gear right away among top military and diplomatic officials.

“There’d be maybe a few days of mobilization and movement before I think it would stop because Canada would not want harm done to our citizens. We would not want to see loss of life,” she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2026.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press