According to the LP338.com federal polling average, the Conservative Party has started to open up a lead over the Liberal Party. The Trudeau Liberals continue their monthly slide from their high of 39% in 2014. Across Canada, 32.3% of polled voters preferred the Conservatives, 30.7% Liberal and 23.9% NDP. The Green Party polls at 7.3% nationwide and 12.9% in BC. The BQ is at 18.6% in Quebec.
Looking at the regional races, British Columbia continues to be a three-way race between the major parties while in Ontario, the Tories are leading the Liberals 36.3% to 34.8%. In Quebec the NDP leads the Liberals 27.9% to 26.3%.
The increase in national Conservative support might be attributed to the release of the budget and media attention surrounding the proposed tax reductions. It will be interesting to see the impact of some elements of Trudeau’s economic platform to support middle class families which was released in May on the Liberal poll numbers. In the April Abacus poll that showed the Tories with an 8 point lead, the increase in support was attributed to those Canadians aged 45 and over.
The federal election is scheduled for October 19th, 2015. Based on the above national and regional party preferences, the Conservatives would win a ‘minority’ government with 142 seats, compared to 112 for the Liberals, 80 for the NDP, 2 seats each for the Bloc and Green Party.
The polls used in the creation of LP338.com federal polling average can be found on LP338.com.