The signs are there. The language is clear. The tea leaves are easy to discern.
Canadians will soon be going back to the polls to choose a new federal government. It may happen in the dog days of summer, although it’s far more likely to occur in the fall. Either way, the writ of election will soon drop.
As things currently stand, the Liberals seem like a safe bet.
The most recent opinion polls confirm this. Ipsos had Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals ahead of Erin O’Toole and the Tories by 38-26 percent on June 22. Abacus Data’s June 30 poll showed the Liberals leading by 37-25 percent. Nanos Research had the Liberals over the Tories by 38.1-23.6 percent in its July 2 poll. Leger is currently showing the closest margin, with the Liberals ahead by 33-30 percent.
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP are sitting in third place in these recent polls at 20, 20, 20.4 and 19 percent respectively. Yves-Francois Blanchet’s Bloc Quebecois are hovering around 5.1-8 percent. Annamie Paul’s Greens sit at 5-7.5 percent. Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party are around 3-4.3 percent.
Polling data must be taken like a grain of salt. Nevertheless, these numbers show a near-carbon copy of current Parliament for Trudeau, albeit with some notable differences.
The Liberals have led in every federal poll taken since Sept. 25, 2020, when Nanos had them briefly behind the Tories by 34-2-34.1 percent. If they fall below the magic number of 38 percent, the likely result would be a strong minority government once again. While it’s mathematically possible to get a small majority with 36 or 37 percent, it largely depends on the riding-by-riding breakdown, seat impact, results in close two-way and three-way races, and so forth. The way things currently stand, Trudeau will either hit or miss majority territory by 7-10 seats.
The Tories are in an unusual position. They should finish a comfortable second, but could slip into third behind the NDP even if they’re ahead in the popular vote. The NDP will most likely finish third, but a doubling of seats from its current tally of 24 doesn’t seem unreasonable. The BQ should be able to protect most of its 32 seats, and may capture 1-2 new ones. The Greens are in the midst of a massive internal struggle, and this could allow the Liberals and NDP to siphon its already-dwindling support. As for the PPC, it’s high enough in the polls that Bernier could become the King of Beauce once more.
It certainly seems like the forthcoming federal election is a foregone conclusion. Or is it?
Elections matter. Leaders and candidates make mistakes. Breaking news of a domestic and international nature can unexpectedly pop up. Policies and narratives can change on the fly. Controversies and pitfalls can be sidestepped, but can’t always be avoided. A successful GOTV (get out the vote) strategy is crucial to winning close races and changing hearts and minds.
If you’ve lived, breathed, ate and slept politics, you’ve seen some strange things occur on a near-daily basis. I certainly have. Many others have, too. We know where the political bodies are buried – and some of us helped design the invisible shovels to boot!
To quote the immortal New York Yankees great Yogi Berra, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” There are several ways for political parties to grow and/or leapfrog one another before the final vote has been tabulated.
O’Toole must release policy positions that are rich in detail and keep semantics in check. The Tories and Liberals are obviously different from one another, but voters want to understand what those differences would exactly entail if he became prime minister. He needs to build a clearly defined plan to deal specifically with COVID-19, taxes, public spending, military funding, Canada’s international role, building better relations with Indigenous peoples, tackling issues of racism and genocide, and so on. This would place O’Toole in a stronger light, and potentially make him more appealing to independent and traditionally non-Conservative voters.
Singh needs to stop wasting time on TikTok and following Trudeau’s lead of getting on magazine covers like GQ. While this fluff may have endeared him with some Millennials and young progressives, the federal government has shifted to the left and lifted some of his policies and strategies. The only Canadians who believe today’s NDP is different from today’s Liberals are (surprise, surprise) NDP activists. They don’t count; the voters do. Hence, Singh needs to avoid radical policies and build unique, moderately left-leaning policies in areas like personal and corporate taxes, healthcare, education and international affairs. If he doesn’t distinguish himself from Trudeau, his chances of electoral success in the fight for many available progressive votes seem rather slim.
The Greens need to bring their internal civil war to an end before it ends their electoral hopes. The BQ must push its role in helping get Quebec’s right to unilaterally change the Constitution as step one – and produce step two and three. Bernier’s PPC and Jay Hill’s Maverick Party need to keep focusing on the Tories’ low poll numbers and show why they represent a conservative alternative.
Can any of this work? Absolutely.
Will any of this work? Time will tell.
Michael Taube, a long-time newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.
