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The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


In Canada as elsewhere autumn 2023 is a strange political time on various fronts. And it is not always easy to know just what to make of various opinion polling anomalies.

Take the case of two late September Canada-wide polls, broken down for federal parties in the third most populous province of BC, between the vast Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains.

On the evening of September 28 the almost always interesting Polling Canada tweeted the BC provincial results of an EKOS federal poll taken September 19–24. As in the country at large this showed the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) well out in front, with a remarkable 53% of the provincial vote. The NDP had 22% and the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) only 12%.

At almost the same time, in the early morning of the same day Polling Canada had tweeted the BC provincial results of a Leger federal poll taken September 22–24. This proposed a rather dramatically different BC provincial picture: LPC 32%, NDP 30%, and CPC.29%.

With the confidence and supply agreement between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in mind (both of whom have particular BC connections), these Leger numbers could be read to suggest that the province sometimes known as British California may have now become a progressive bastion in Canada, broadly comparable to Gavin Newsom’s California in the USA.

What all this could suggest about BC seems especially striking when set beside the Ontario results of the same Leger federal poll taken September 22–24: CPC 45%, LPC 28%, NDP 18%.

These Leger Ontario numbers look more like the EKOS numbers for BC. Partisans of the BC EKOS poll raise methodological issues with the Leger poll. On Twitter (now  X),  Polling Canada offers a methodological note on its BC Leger poll:  “Sample size = 141 Online.”

Several commenting tweets urge this size is just too small. Yet 141 would be BC’s approximate share of the Canada-wide population in a cross-country sample of 1,000 people. And the EKOS poll whose results Leger poll critics like better has a Canada-wide sample of 1,025.

Methodologically, Polling Canada just notes “IVR” on  its BC EKOS poll. And veteran polling guru Allan Gregg has quietly criticized “the interactive voice response (IVR) surveys that bombard telephone numbers with recorded questions which, quite frankly, isn’t any more scientific than … trying to stop people … on a street corner.”

Finally, in the technical rating of  Canadian federal pollsters proposed by physics and astrophysics professor Philippe J. Fournier’s 338Canada website EKOS gets B+ and Leger A+!

All this having been said, there does remain an obvious enough sense in which less than 150 observations is not a very good sample size for political opinion polling.

Yet the insurmountable general problem here is that cross-Canada samples large enough to provide seriously reliable regional results are prohibitively expensive. (The average country-wide sample size of the most recent half-dozen polls followed by 338Canada is 1,385!)

The typical smaller-number, less reliable regional samples in Canada-wide polls are sometimes intriguing — and even revealing. But regional inconsistencies in these cost-effective soundings of Canadian opinion at large are not unusual. It is almost always wise to treat regional results of cross-country polls with  grains of well-seasoned salt.

All this having been said again, there remains some further support for the Leger poll’s Canadian bastion of progress on the Pacific coast in recent polling on BC provincial politics.

338Canada’s latest model of a BC election held now shows the NDP with 71 seats, BC United (old BC Liberals) 11 seats, Greens 3, and Conservatives 2. In the early autumn of 2023 the progressive NDP BC provincial government  — under new leader David Eby, but in office since the spring of 2017 — is arguably in greater command of provincial politics than ever before.

(And, it is tempting to wonder, is this somehow related to the 2023 wildfires?)

The ultimate truth probably is that both the recent EKOS and Leger polls reflect different strands in the complex web of BC provincial and federal politics. Both clusters of regional opinion are out there in the wet coast air.

The big question for the near-enough future is no doubt which of the two rather different late September 2023 BC polling pictures  will prevail in the next federal election on or before October 20, 2025— EKOS’s conservative dominance or Leger’s progressive bastion? The answer could have something to do with the futures of both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


This content is restricted to subscribers

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


This content is restricted to subscribers

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


This content is restricted to subscribers

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


This content is restricted to subscribers

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


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Liberal MP Joël Lightbound was the talk of the town on Monday. Part of it because of what he said about COVID-19 and mandatory vaccinations for truck drivers, and part of it because most Canadians had no idea who he was.

Let’s examine the last detail as a starting point.

Lightbound represents the Quebec riding of Louis-Hébert. Introduced in 1968, this electoral district has long been regarded as one of the most politically inconsistent. Between 1984-2015, the riding was held by the Progressive Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois (thrice), Liberals, Conservatives and NDP between 1984-2015. Most of Louis-Hébert’s representatives have been one-term MPs – and Lightbound is the only one to have won it three times in a federal election.

The 34-year-old lawyer was at one point viewed as a rising star in his party and potential cabinet minister. He served as parliamentary secretary to the Health Minister (June-Sept. 2017), Finance Minister (Sept. 2017-Dec. 2019) and Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Minister (Dec. 2019-Aug. 2021) during the 42nd and 43rd sessions of the Canadian Parliament. He was also the Quebec caucus chair, a rather important role in a Liberal government that depends on good relations with La Belle Province to achieve electoral success.

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won last September’s federal election, Lightbound wasn’t placed into another role. (There are unverified reports that the MP was the one who asked to be removed.) He’s still Industry and Technology Committee chair, but sits in the backbenches biding his time with Liberal MPs who’ve watched the cobwebs spread on their phones far longer than he has.

What was the reason behind it?

“He’s not super-likeable, in the way smart guys can sometimes be a bit much,” Macleans columnist Paul Wells observed on Feb. 8. “He’s chippy and has no discernible sense of humour.” He also noted that “in the first year of this government, it was not uncommon to hear Lightbound mentioned around Ottawa as one of the Liberals’ brightest talents. But he hasn’t clicked… all of this suggests uncommon ambition thwarted.”

At the same time, Wells pointed out Lightbound is “eligible for a full pension” and “Quebec City is a strange bubble, a place with a distinctive centre-right political culture that makes it Quebec’s current capital of frustration with restrictions and mandates, which means Lightbound will have been hearing a lot about those restrictions from constituents with a documented history of partisan fickleness.”

When you put it all together, “this adds up to Lightbound as a mix of real smarts under real pressure with a strong feeling of nothing to lose.”

Which brings us to the Quebec MP’s astonishing press conference on Monday morning.

Lightbound broke ranks with his Liberal colleagues on COVID-19 policies. “I can’t help but notice with regret that both the tone and the policies of my government have changed drastically since the last election campaign. It went from a more positive approach to one that stigmatizes and divides people,” he said. “I fear that this politicization of the pandemic risks undermining the public’s trust in our public health institutions. This is not a risk we ought to be taking lightly… It’s becoming harder and harder to know when public health stops and where politics begins. It’s time to stop dividing Canadians and pitting one part of the population against another.”

With respect to the Freedom Convoy protest in Ottawa, he appeared to be of two minds.

Lightbound denounced what he perceived as “far right groups we have seen in these protests,” but said he had “enough respect for my fellow Canadians not to engage in these easy absurd labels.” This was directed at Trudeau’s comments about the protesters being a “fringe minority.” In another notable shot across the bow, he said “not everyone can earn a living on a Macbook at a cottage.” Some have interpreted this as a general comment about ordinary Canadians, but it could easily be an assessment of the PM’s past, present and future whereabouts.

Within hours, Lightbound announced he was stepping down as Quebec caucus chair. Government Whip Steven MacKinnon told the media that while this resignation was based on “disagreements with government policy,” he would remain a Liberal MP.

Methinks this hastily-made arrangement won’t last for long.

Some reporters and columnists spent more time focusing on Lightbound’s political future instead of what he actually said. Considering the Canadian media’s relatively favourable position about the Trudeau Liberals, that’s not surprising.

Alas, it meant they missed the meat of the matter. Additional chinks in the already-weakened Liberal armour had been exposed on an issue they’ve been fiercely united on – in public, anyway. Meanwhile, if Lightbound’s comment that “I can tell you that I’m not the only one who feels varying degrees as I do within our ranks” is valid, there could potentially be other Liberal MPs speaking out at some point.

Lightbound’s political future is uncertain.

His words won’t bring down the Liberals.

His story will eventually fade into the background as the news cycle shifts course.

Nevertheless, Lightbound’s refreshing decision to put principles ahead of power may have helped change the narrative when it comes to Ottawa’s restrictive policies on COVID-19, lockdown measures and vaccine mandates. Or additional food for thought, if nothing else.

For that, we owe him a small debt of gratitude.

Michael Taube, a long-time newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.