WASHINGTON, D.C. — Thanks to changing government policies and political rhetoric in both the United States and Canada, prospective foreign students looking to North America for schooling may have more risks to worry about than benefits when choosing a school.
This is increasingly leading fewer to hop the pond.
The two countries have been able to offer strong schools with a wide variety of majors and flexibility, as well as work-study and post-graduation opportunities. In recent years, that has led to a record number of foreign students in Canada — with nearly 470,000 enrolled in postsecondary institutions in 2023, more than double what it was a decade earlier. American universities in 2024, meanwhile, had between 1.1 and 1.58 million international students enrolled in undergraduate and graduate programmes combined (sources vary), over a 50 per cent rise since 2014.
For both countries, the No. 1 country of origin for their foreign students is India — representing nearly 30 per cent of international pupils at U.S. universities and 40 per cent at Canadian ones.
“I would say there’s been about a 40 per cent drop in the interest in American schools and going to the U.S. (this year),” said Mrinalini Batra, founder and CEO of Delhi-based International Educational Exchange.
Batra has helped thousands of Indian students navigate the process of applying for schools abroad, and while her clients’ number one foreign destination has long been the U.S., she has also helped students land in Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and other parts of Europe.
Indian students are drawn to studying in the U.S. and Canada, Batra said, because the programmes are world-class and allow them to learn a wider array of subjects, switch majors as needed, and study topics beyond their majors for minors and electives.
“These things made the U.S. extremely attractive — you could study what you wanted and how you wanted,” she said.
But now, “it has become really hard” for U.S.-bound students, she added, noting that there’s also been a dip for Canada. Batra noted that she’s seen an uptick in applications for the U.K. as a result of this trend away from North America, but some Indian students are also just deciding to stay home.
Canadian changes
In 2024, Canada introduced a two-year cap on new study permit approvals (though some student categories were exempt) and postgraduate work permit changes amid a national housing shortage and pushback on immigration. The government’s objective, according to Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE), was to stabilize growth in the international student population, equating to roughly a 35 per cent decline in new study permit approvals.
But the changes led to a 48 per cent decline from 2023, or nearly 100,000 study permits below the official targets.
“So, from our perspective, this was a severe overcorrection that, as we warned, is having a much more deleterious impact in terms of international student flow to Canada,” said Bezo.
By the end of that first year, Canada’s international student population had declined by 4 per cent relative to 2023, following the 29 per cent increase from 2022-2023, according to CBIE.
And even though the graduate level was initially excluded from the cap, “we saw graduate numbers drop by 25 per cent or more due to the reputational damage of the overall decision to implement a study permit cap,” said Bezo.
Between January and June 2025, there was a 50 per cent decline in study-permit applications, according to ICEF Monitor, and while the fall numbers have not been released, they are expected to be even worse.
The impact has not been universal. Rural and smaller colleges have been hit harder by a lack of interest, leading to more than 35 campus closures, hundreds of programme suspensions, and 10,000 job losses in higher education since last autumn, according to Bezo.
Meanwhile, top schools like the University of British Columbia and the University of Toronto are seeing a dip in international applicants and doing their best to manage the subsequent drop in revenue.
“While domestic enrolment increased, the University of Toronto has seen modest declines in applications from some key international markets for a variety of reasons, including damage to Canada’s reputation as an education destination, evolving demographics and changing patterns in global student mobility,” said a statement from a spokesperson for university, noting that the anticipated 1.5 per cent drop in revenue will be managed with “existing contingencies and reserves” in the school’s budget plan.
UBC, meanwhile, said that like all Canadian post-secondary institutions, it has also seen a decline in international enrolment since 2023 and is doing its best to mitigate the impact. “As of this time, there are no university-wide plans to implement systemic cuts,” Kurt Heinrich, associate VP of communications at UBC, shared by email. But he did note that operating budgets and staff reductions have resulted from the decline in international students.
CBIE is calling on Ottawa for no further changes to international student policies to allow for some stability, and it wants to see a comprehensive plan for cultivating talent and a regional and institutional tailoring of international recruitment priorities. “We would like to see a global talent strategy for Canada that helps us support the country’s future economic innovation and demographic skills,” said Bezo.
“Our future prosperity hinges on that talent pipeline. So we need to get this right and we’re not getting it right at the moment.”
U.S. changes
The U.S., meanwhile, has ramped up its visa vetting this year, including reviewing applicants’ social media profiles, narrowing access to F-1 and J-1 visas for several countries, and revoking thousands of student visas on national security grounds. It has also introduced travel restrictions, affecting nationals from about 19 countries that make it harder for students from those nations to visit home and re-enter the U.S. Separately, Washington has imposed a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications, the type of visas many international students aspire to obtain for work placement and residency in the U.S.
“This is the first year I found that kids could not get a slot for visas,” said Batra. “I’m not talking about visa rejections; they just could not get a slot,” noting that this didn’t even happen during the pandemic.
The White House has also made significant cuts to federal research funding and higher education support programs.
According to a recent Keystone survey of 42,000 prospective students in more than 150 countries, 57 per cent said they were less likely to study in the U.S. owing to the prospect of having their social media accounts scanned by U.S. authorities. The number one factor thwarting their interest, however, was funding cuts to higher education.
As a result of visa uncertainties and concerns about being able to complete their degrees, international enrolment in U.S. undergraduate and graduate programs has fallen by at least 19 per cent — and possibly as much as 40 per cent — from a year ago. As in Canada, elite institutions are more insulated from these declines, though some are beginning to see drops as well.
“In Boston, which has many top colleges, they’ve actually seen a downturn in the housing market and apartment rentals, which they believe is because they have fewer international students coming to the Boston area to go to school,” said Sarah Spreitzer, VP and chief of staff of government relations at the American Council on Education.
Spreitzer said the data for this year should come out next month. “If it is the [anticipated] 40 per cent drop, then it’s likely going to hit every school in some way,” she added.
Right now, if you are enrolled and making academic progress, your student visa remains valid, Spreitzer explained. But that could soon change as well, adding even more uncertainty to the process.
The Department of Homeland Security has proposed the elimination of the “duration of status” rule that allows foreign students with F-1 visas to remain in the country if they maintain their academic status. DHS wants international students limited to just four years, with limited options for changes one major or transferring schools – those key attractions for Indian students that Batra mentioned.
To extend, “you would have to apply for an extension of status, which the administration has said will be granted very rarely,” Spreitzer added, noting that she expects the measure to be implemented later this year.
Studying in the U.S. or Canada as a foreigner is expensive — not an investment decision to make lightly.
“Our international students have to demonstrate as part of the visa process that they have enough money to support themselves during their studies,” said Spreitzer, noting that there are very few exceptions allowing them to work while they’re in the U.S. That means they have to prove they can pay for four years of tuition, housing, and supporting themselves just to get into the country.
As a result of this spending, international students contributed a whopping $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy last year, propping up 378,000 jobs. Since they tend to pay higher tuition and fees, many schools rely on international tuitions being paid.
But with all the uncertainty over visas and the ability to finish one’s degree, parents of prospective students are growing wary of sending their children abroad and risking such a big investment.
“They’re reconsidering whether they want to spend about $90,000 per year to go there for the next four years,” said Batra.
National Post
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