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Michael Wernick, former clerk of the Privy Council of Canada, participates in an interview with Maclean's, on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021. (Photograph by Justin Tang)

Brian Mulroney was the prime minister the first time Michael Wernick sat at the back of a cabinet committee room, taking notes. One time the young civil servant found himself transcribing John Crosbie’s remarks as the powerful fisheries minister recited arguments Wernick himself had put into Crosbie’s briefing notes. That particular ouroboros of influence was “quite exciting for a young desk officer,” Wernick said in an interview shortly before the recent federal election.

The venue was my back yard. The occasion was the release of Wernick’s new book, Governing Canada: A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics (UBC Press). Wernick was a senior official for decades in Ottawa, a deputy minister under Paul Martin and Stephen Harper. Justin Trudeau made him Clerk of the Privy Council, a position from which Wernick retired amid the SNC-Lavalin controversy in 2019, after Jody Wilson-Raybould released a surreptitious recording of a conversation with Wernick.

Wilson-Raybould, clandestine recordings, and the doctrines of independence for attorneys general are not topics of Wernick’s book, and he made it clear he preferred that they not figure in our interview. I relented, mostly. I’ve known Wernick for 26 years. He’s been learning how Ottawa works for longer than that. The lore he’s accumulated, poured between the covers of a slim volume aimed at students of political science, is a valuable contribution to Canadians’ understanding of how they’re governed.

“I didn’t want to write a memoir,” Wernick said. What came out instead is “a kind of an amalgam of many experiences with different ministers and three prime ministers that I got to work with reasonably closely. I was trying to capture those conversations—what it’s like to sit across from the new minister after swearing in, or some of the conversations that go on. Particularly in the early days of a government as they’re finding their feet or learning their skills.”

For the longest time he couldn’t settle on a format. He finally found a model in Renaissance Florence.

“I have a daughter who’s studying political science at U of T. She was doing a political theory course. And she was home for Christmas, but still working on a paper. And one of the things on that second-year political science course, that I took umpteen years ago, is [Niccolo Machiavelli’s] The Prince. It’s second-person advice on statecraft. It’s held up for a long time. And that gave me that sort of lightbulb moment. ‘Oh, I can do something that way. I could do it direct and second-person advice to somebody who’s coming into that position.’ That unlocked the whole thing for me.”

The resulting book is nearly devoid of juicy insider gossip—never Wernick’s style—but full of pithy advice to political leaders in general. “If you can end a meeting early and gain a sliver of time,” he tells prospective prime ministers, “get up and leave.” And, elsewhere, “It is rarely to your advantage to meet the premiers as a group.” And, ahem, “The longer you are in office, the more courtiers you will attract.”

From various perches in the senior ranks of the public service, Wernick watched three prime ministers land in the top job and try to figure out how to govern. “There is a skill set involved in governing,” he said. “We seem to expect people to learn that skill set on the job quickly, without a lot of help.”

And yet the days after a gruelling election campaign are nearly the worst time to be starting a new job. “One of the things I try to emphasize is the human element of it. People come in off an election campaign, exhausted. Physically exhausted. And in a state of considerable disruption. Often they’re new to being a minister. They’re also new to being an MP. They have to make decisions about their family, relocate or not to Ottawa. They’re changing locations. They’re changing careers, fundamentally. And I was always warning public service colleagues, ‘You have to allow for that. Allow for some of that exhaustion and shock.’”

New governments have only a few weeks to get up to speed. And habits that are formed early are not likely to be substantially revised later, with the benefit of hindsight. By then it’s too late. “The Prime Ministers I saw settled into the job very quickly. But then it’s hard to change. They get into a comfort zone or routines and patterns. It’s a very human thing to do. So part of my purpose in the book is just to say, ‘Pause and be a little bit mindful of the how of governing before it all gets locked in.’”

One of the recurring themes in Wernick’s book is how little time everyone has. A federal cabinet will have 100 hours in a year for all of its plenary discussions. Maybe 120. It’s never enough. “It’s overbooked from day one until the day they leave. And you’re always making choices: to do one thing means not doing something else. And mindful management of the allocation of time is really important. It can get away on you.”

The cabinet is going to need a lot of help. That was Wernick’s job, and that of all his bureaucratic colleagues, as well as countless political staff, operating with different aims and methods. “When it works well, you have a certain balance in what I call a triangle between the decision-maker—could be the PM, could be a minister—the support network they get from the public service, and the support network that they get from the political side.”

Sometimes the triangle gets out of balance. “The system gets into trouble when the public service tries to anticipate politics too much. And it clearly gets into trouble when the political side starts trying to run departments administratively. If people keep in their swim lanes and understand each other’s roles, each can add something. I always found it irritating when people chided ministers for being political. They’re supposed to be political in a democracy.”

I asked Wernick about a favourite Ottawa worry, that the public service is losing its ability to generate new ideas and policies. He didn’t bite. “I think there’s a little bit of a mythology that there was some other time when the great and good mandarins of the town—all white males, by the way—generated the ideas and pushed them towards the political system,” he said.

“I think there’s a competing narrative that the policy space is much more open and inclusive than it ever was. The costs of entry are much lower. Anybody with a laptop and a Google account can be a policy analyst. When I joined government, we had a quasi-monopoly on the ability to run big simulation models on income-security programs. Now many university professors can do it better.”

Besides, “I don’t think it’s really the role of the public service to be the originator of new ideas. Those usually come from democratic politics: ‘We wish to decriminalize cannabis.’ And then you work through the problem of how to do it competently.”

Governing Canada includes some pointed advice to cabinet ministers about the fact that they’re probably not going to get a chance to choose the date of their departure from politics. Prime ministers and voters have a way of making those decisions quickly and at inconvenient moments. Did I detect an autobiographical element to these passages?

“That’s largely true of clerks and public servants as well,” Wernick said. “Or hockey coaches. Like, there’s a lot of job jobs where you can’t arrange a perfectly-timed departure. I’m not the only person who’s been backed into a corner where it was impossible to continue to do the job. It’s unfortunate, but it happened.”

“But it’s happened to other people. Circumstances get away on people. People fall into all sorts of things that make it untenable for them to continue in the job.”

When things got weird for Wernick, did he draw any comfort from those earlier examples?

“No. I mean, that’s not the way I’d put it. I was conscious, during those last few months, that I was drifting towards a zone where I couldn’t do the job anymore. I was becoming part of the story. You have to enjoy at least some basic level of trust from the opposition leaders. I didn’t have that. And that just made it impossible to carry on.”

If he had a do-over, would he handle SNC-Lavalin differently? “That’s probably for another day, in another interview. I did not pick up on some of the warning signs about the trouble that was coming…. But I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about that. You work and live in the moment and you do the best you can at the time.”

I tried one more question that was a little closer to the concrete example of the current government than to the trends and aphorisms Wernick’s book prefers. In the book, he writes to a hypothetical prime minister: “You will not be successful if you hang on to the same closed circle of close advisors and confidants for your whole time in office. There is an inevitable drift into a comfort zone and a form of groupthink that can create blind spots and put you at risk.”

Gee, did he have anyone in mind?

Butter would not melt in Wernick’s mouth as he told me he had no examples from current events. “The example I was actually drawing on was Stephen Harper in 2011. You know, the opposition leaders [Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh, in the election that had not yet happened when Wernick and I spoke] probably have a transition team, who will give them some advice on how to set things up. And I worked with Derek Burney from the Harper team, and Mike Robinson from the Martin team, and Peter Harder from the Trudeau team.” Those new governments are always “very conscious and mindful about how they want to set things up.” But re-elected prime ministers “tend to just start up again, with the same people in the same processes. People have argued, and I think I agree, that Stephen Harper missed an opportunity in 2011, to pause and think.

“I would say to any Prime Minister, when they’re going into a second or third mandate: ‘You should pause. It’s going to be different. Think about the processes and the people.’”

The post Michael Wernick has some advice appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Chrystia Freeland in Ottawa on Oct. 6, 2021. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

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The Globe has an eye-opening story about Chrystia Freeland’s youth, how she flummoxed the KGB while she was a student in Ukraine in the 1980s. Drawing on documents from the Soviet archives, Simon Miles shows that Soviet spies were impressed by Freeland — codename Frida — even as they tried to prevent her from linking Ukrainian activists with foreign journalists.

Ms. Freeland, and her ilk, were a threat to the Soviet Union – but one which had to be handled delicately: treating her too harshly could give credence to the “libellous” stories told in Ukrainian émigré communities about how the KGB treated national minorities in the Soviet Union. According to the KGB, Ms. Freeland was more than just an agitator for, as Col. Stroi derisively put it, “the liberation of Ukraine” who coerced Soviet citizens into staging marches and rallies to attract Western support. She delivered cash, video- and audio-recording equipment, and even a personal computer to her contacts in Ukraine. All of this took place under the watchful eye of the KGB, which surveilled Ms. Freeland. Its officers tailed her wherever she went, tapped her phone calls to Ukrainians abroad, bugged her accommodation, read her mail, and had an informer, codenamed Slav, insert himself into Ms. Freeland’s circle and gain the young Canadian’s trust.

New faces needed: Speaking of Freeland, Trudeau said after the election that she will continue as deputy PM and finance minister in his next cabinet, which seems, to the Globe’s Campbell Clark, a “signal that the rest of the team doesn’t matter as much.” Clark thinks some changes are in order.

First and foremost, he needs a defence minister who actually thinks they are responsible for the conduct of the military, unlike Mr. Sajjan, who repeatedly sloughed off responsibility for the military’s repeated mishandling of sexual harassment. Ms. Freeland said last week that the brass still don’t get it, so Mr. Trudeau needs an experienced minister, preferably a woman, who will make them get it. Perhaps Ms. Anand. He also needs a pandemic health minister who can be the clear spokesperson and forceful negotiator with provinces that Ms. Hajdu hasn’t been.

Going negative: The Star’s Althia Raj has a revealing long read with insight into some of the behind-the-scenes calculations that took place during the recent election. For instance, in late August, rattled Liberals decided they had to go negative because they were on track to lose to Erin O’Toole.

Dan Arnold, the Liberals’ director of research, was concerned by the way support for O’Toole was trending. “If you looked at his momentum and (Trudeau’s) momentum … it certainly was not looking like it was heading into a good outcome,” he told the Star. “I was pretty candid to people … that the way the trajectory was going, we were going to lose the campaign.” Arnold started the meeting with that overview. But he wasn’t the only voice to raise concerns. The campaign team was getting missives — some solicited advice, others panicked and unsolicited — urging it to go negative to change the tide.

Tofino fallout: Trudeau’s decision to travel to makes him look “disconnected” and “tone deaf,” political analysts tell the Hill Times, but most of them think he will outlast this controversy like others before it because of his durable brand, reports Abbas Ranna in the Hill Times.

Needs advice: Speaking of Tofino, in the Hill Times Rose LeMay has a thoughtful column suggesting that the prime minister should get advice from an Indigenous Elders’ Circle.

Enough Huawei: More than 75 per cent of Canadians think Ottawa should ban Huawei Technologies from this country’s 5G telecommunications, the Globe reports.

Opposition to Huawei’s presence in 5G has increased to 76 per cent of respondents from 53 per cent in a 2019 poll. Huawei’s 5G technology has been banned in other countries over fears that the Chinese Communist Party could use it for spying purposes. In the latest results, only 10 per cent of respondents say Huawei should be allowed to supply gear for 5G, down from 22 per cent in the 2019 poll.

Somewhat tougher: The Trudeau government appears to be subtly changing its tone on China, Mike Blanchfield writes for the Canadian Press.

Analysts saw hints of a potentially tougher approach in what appeared to be a throwaway line in a congratulatory note that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sent to his new Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, this past week. Trudeau twice used the label “Indo-Pacific” to stress the importance of co-operating with Japan on shared regional interests. For some observers, that was a signal that Canada was moving toward a tougher posture toward future relations with China.

Blanchfield is the co-author of a new book about the ordeal of the two Michaels.
Legault dominates: In Maclean’s, Philippe J. Fournier has a look at a new Leger poll that finds François Legault with “47 per cent of voting intentions in Quebec, a monstrous 27-point lead over its closest rival, the Quebec Liberal Party.” Legault is so popular that even supporters of other parties want him to be premier.

Bad news for the Liberal Party: when asked which party leader would make the best premier, only 45 per cent of Liberal voters pick QLP leader Dominique Anglade. Even worse news for PQ leader Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon: only 25 per cent of PQ voters believe that he is the best candidate for premier. In fact, PQ voters even prefer François Legault (38 per cent) to the current PQ leader (25 per cent). I am scouring my memory and cannot recall a recent occasion when voters of a major party in Quebec preferred the leader of another party to their own. In fact, Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon (3 per cent) is even behind neophyte Éric Duhaime (6 per cent) in this survey.

Pondering Legault: In the Star, Chantal Hebert takes the measure of Legault’s dominance and points out that many Quebecers are starting to wonder what he plans to do with all his political capital.

It is not uncommon these days to hear speculation that the only person who could lead Quebec back to the independence battlefield would be Legault himself. There are those who fear or hope that engineering such a return is the grand scheme behind his fighting words directed at Trudeau and his ruling federal party. No one can claim to read the premier’s mind.

Canadian Nobel: Canadian economist David Card won the Nobel prize for economics Monday for pioneering research that showed increasing the minimum wage does not kill jobs and immigrants do not lower pay for native-born workers, CBC reports.

We’re Number 1! A new report by a Finnish telecom analyst shows that Canadians pay more for cellphone service than anyone else on the planet, the Post reports.

— Stephen Maher

The post A young Chrystia Freeland impressed Soviet Russia’s KGB appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc Kúkpi7 (Chief) Rosanne Casimir speaks after the B.C. Lions CFL football team announced they would recognize the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation on Sept. 30 at their Sept. 24 game against Saskatchewan, in Vancouver, on Thursday, September 16, 2021. Orange t-shirts with an Indigenous B.C. Lions logo by Kwakwaka'wakw-Tlingit artist Corrine Hunt will be handed out to 10,000 people at the game and tickets will be provided to 350 residential school survivors to attend. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

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The Tḱemlúps te Secwépemc First Nation Thursday agreed to meet with Justin Trudeau but have rejected his apology for ignoring their previous invitations and instead vacationing in Tofino on Canada’s first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, the Star reports. “We are not interested in apologies that don’t lead to institutional and widespread change,” the First Nation said in a written statement.

In May, more than 200 unmarked graves were discovered on the grounds of a former residential school near the band. Tḱemlúps te Secwépemc later sent two invitations to the Prime Minister’s Office requesting Trudeau’s presence at an event to honour the national holiday, which his office apparently ignored. The Prime Minister apologized publicly for the slight on Wednesday.

A lot of grovelling: Tanya Talaga, author of two important books about the struggles Indigenous youth face as a result of Canadian colonialism, has a strong column in the Globe in which she lauds the First Nation for agreeing to meet with Trudeau.

This is the beautiful thing about so many Indigenous Peoples: No matter what crap is thrown at us – from genocidal laws and policies aimed to extinguish us, to racists yelling for us to get off the sidewalk – we rise. Our existence is our resistance. That isn’t just a slogan. It is the truth. That Kúkpi7 [Chief] Rosanne Casimir and the band council are willing to extend their hands, once again – after he had declined their offers to attend events for the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation not once but twice – is astounding.

And she takes Trudeau to task for failing to have shown up.

The Prime Minister, after all, had a lot of grovelling to do. After the discovery of unmarked graves of little children at the Kamloops Indian Residential School, Mr. Trudeau hasn’t bothered to show up to the community to express his remorse personally. The unspeakable discovery of the bones of children seems like the kind of thing a leader should drop pretty much everything for, and yet he did not.

Gunning for Kenney: At least 10 UCP constituency associations are pushing for a leadership review for Jason Kenney before March 1, instead of April, CBC reports, citing three confidential sources. At least 22 CAs are required to pass the motion to force the party to act on it. Kenney is unpopular.

Voting problems: The NDP has written to Elections Canada to ask for an investigation into whether the  organization failed to follow correct procedures, denying citizens the right to cast their vote, CP reports.

Tough Singh:  Jagmeet Singh was talking tough after the NDP caucus met on Thursday, saying he is willing to “withhold votes” for Liberal legislation, signalling  a tougher stance on co-operation with the Liberals in Parliament, CTV reports. The Liberals also met in Ottawa, said farewell to defeated colleagues, but apparently didn’t give MPs much of a clue about the agenda for the months ahead, the Globe reports.

Murder charge: The CBC has an interesting and sad story about Rakesh David, a CPC volunteer who has been charged with murdering three relatives in Trinidad and Tobago. It adds more facts after a similar story in the National Post.

Manning seeks entry: U.S. intelligence whistleblower Chelsea Manning is fighting to be allowed into Canada, CBC reports. Canada is trying to stop her from visiting.  “I really like Canada,” she told the Immigration and Refugee Board.

Antivaxxers canned: A hospital in Windsor, Ont. has fired more than 60 workers who declined to get vaccinated, Postmedia reports.

Not so fast: Lawrence Martin, in the Globe, has a good column suggesting that other commentators are too quick to declare Trudeau a lame duck, and he could very well run again.

He’s just 49 and has been in office only six years and there is no heir apparent. Men of his age do not relinquish enormous prime ministerial power unless forced. He has a progressive policy vision to implement, maligners to spite and his Liberal Party behind him. Why wouldn’t the party back him? While not getting a majority and scoring a pathetic popular vote total, Mr. Trudeau still smashed his nearest rival by 40 seats. He extended his own mandate while leaving other leaders fighting for their jobs or losing them. He gave life to the People’s Party, which suits his party just fine as it divides the right.

— Stephen Maher

The post Tḱemlúps te Secwépemc First Nation to meet Trudeau but ‘not interested in apologies’ appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Legault arrives to speak at the opening the the Federation Quebecois des Municipalite's annual congress on Sept. 30, 2021 in Quebec City (Jacques Boissinot/CP)

We are less than a year away from the next Quebec general election and, according to recent polling data, never in the past 30 years has a re-election seemed so likely in the province. Barring a historic turn of events or a major scandal, it appears no other political party is positioned to unseat François Legault’s CAQ.

Indeed, the latest Quebec poll conducted by Leger for Le Journal de Montréal measures the CAQ at 47 per cent of  voting intentions in Quebec, a monstrous 27-point lead over its closest rival, the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP). In distant third place are Québec solidaire (QS) and the Parti québécois (PQ) with 11 per cent support apiece, while a new fifth player, Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party (akin to Maxime Bernier’s PPC at the provincial level), climbs to 8 per cent in the province, with support mostly concentrated in the Quebec City region.



Among francophone voters (which makes up about 80 per cent of Quebec voters), the CAQ’s lead is even greater: François Legault’s party obtains 54 per cent of voting intentions. The opposition parties share only paltry crumbs: 13 per cent for the Parti québécois, 12 per cent for Québec solidaire and 10 per cent for the Liberal Party.

The CAQ dominates virtually all demographic segments of the Quebec electorate. The CAQ leads by 29 points among men and 24 points among women. And while there is a statistical tie between the CAQ (28 per cent) and QS (26 per cent) among young voters aged 18-34, the CAQ crushes its rivals among older voters, with leads of 30 points among those aged 35-54 and 35 points (!) among those aged 55 and over.

In the Montreal metropolitan area (Island of Montreal, Laval and “the 450”), the CAQ stands 41 per cent support, compared with 28 per cent for the QLP. In the Quebec City region, the CAQ dominates with 53 per cent support, 35 points ahead of Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives, which stands in second place with 18 per cent in the region. In the rest of Quebec, the CAQ obtains 52 per cent, nearly 40 points ahead of its rivals.

What explains the CAQ’s current dominance? One of the questions frequently asked in such surveys measures satisfaction with the government. Such data can tell us something about the potential for growth (or decline!) of the competing parties. With 65 per cent of respondents saying they are satisfied with the CAQ government, François Legault enjoys a degree of consensus that goes well beyond partisan lines. Consider the following figure:



Not only does the CAQ enjoy near-unanimity among its own voters (97 per cent satisfaction), but seven in 10 PQ voters (69 per cent) say they are satisfied with the CAQ government. Even among voters of the other opposition parties, the CAQ scores exceptionally well: 44 per cent of Liberal voters and 41 per cent of QS voters say they are satisfied with the government’s performance.

Moreover, François Legault is seen as the best candidate for the position of Premier of Quebec among all party leaders, and by far. Consider the following table (taken directly from the Léger report):



Bad news for the Liberal Party: when asked which party leader would make the best premier, only 45 per cent of Liberal voters pick QLP leader Dominique Anglade. Even worse news for PQ leader Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon: only 25 per cent of PQ voters believe that he is the best candidate for premier. In fact, PQ voters even prefer François Legault (38 per cent) to the current PQ leader (25 per cent). I am scouring my memory and cannot recall a recent occasion when voters of a major party in Quebec preferred the leader of another party to their own. In fact, Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon (3 per cent) is even behind neophyte Éric Duhaime (6 per cent) in this survey.

Obviously, such a dominance in voting intentions also translates into a strong lead in the seat projections. According to the 338Canada Quebec model, the CAQ would win an average of 100 seats in the National Assembly if an election were held this week, or 24 more seats than it currently holds.



The QLP would be reduced to an average of only 18 seats in the ridings where many anglophone and allophone voters reside in Montreal, Laval, Montérégie, and the Outaouais regions. Moreover, the CAQ’s lead among francophones is such that some traditional Liberal ridings in Montreal could potentially flip, including Anjou-Louis-Riel, Verdun, Maurice-Richard, and Marquette.

Québec solidaire would probably manage to keep its core of Montreal seats, but ridings such as Sherbrooke, Jean-Lesage and Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, all won by QS in the 2018 election, could be at risk. In addition, the CAQ’s growing support in Montreal’s French-speaking boroughs, combined with the PQ’s fall from grace on the island, could mean that even Rosemont may be in play next year.

As for the Parti Québécois, it would be left with Pascal Bérubé’s (former PQ interim leader) riding of Matane-Matapédia in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region (Lower Saint-Lawrence). However, the PQ remains competitive in other ridings which the party already holds, including Joliette, Gaspé and Îles-de-la-Madeleine.

In fact, the 338Canada model has the CAQ projected with no fewer than 74 “safe” ridings (ridings with a 99.5 per cent or greater odds of winning). The CAQ thus has a pool of safe ridings higher than the threshold for a majority in the National Assembly, i.e. 63 seats.



So who could stop the CAQ in 2022? Could the numbers we are seeing now be tipped in favour of one of the opposition parties in less than a calendar year? One should never say never in Quebec politics, but the CAQ’s current dominance has no recent precedent in Quebec. One has to go back to Robert Bourassa’s Liberals in the mid-1980s to find similar numbers. After winning 99 seats in 1985, the QLP was easily re-elected with 92 seats in 1989. Moreover, the QLP had only one serious opponent in that election (Jacques Parizeau’s Parti Québécois), whereas today the CAQ faces a highly divided opposition, giving the CAQ a clear advantage in terms of seats.

At the risk of having to swallowing these words in a few months, it seems that the worst of the pandemic is behind us and that Quebec has withstood the worst of the fourth wave that hit the Canadian Prairies hard. Economic recovery will likely dominate the government’s agenda in 2022, which, in theory, should play right into François Legault’s hands. So what could stop the CAQ? Considering that complacency and arrogance can arise when a government feels a little too comfortable, perhaps the CAQ will be its own worst enemy in this upcoming election year.

* * *

Details of this projection are available on the 338Canada Quebec page. You will find all 125 electoral district projections here, or use the regional links below:

The post 338Canada: One year from re-election, Legault appears invincible appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Justin Trudeau in Ottawa on Oct. 6, 2021. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

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Justin Trudeau, back from Tofino, held a newser in Ottawa Wednesday to announced a vaccine policy that will require public servants to get jabbed or go on an unpaid leave of absence, CBC reports. The mandate applies to the RCMP and federal contractors, an estimated 267,000 employees. Travellers will also need to fully vaccinated by Oct. 30. The unvaccinated will face “disciplinary action that could ultimately cost them their job,” an official said at a technical briefing.

Crown corporations — including Canada Post and CBC/Radio Canada — and  the House of Commons and the Senate — will be asked to establish similar policies.

The whole thing will depend on attestations, which could open loopholes.

The employees who fall under this mandate will not have to produce their proof of vaccination documents. Instead, it essentially relies on an honour system: employees will have to sign an attestation form certifying that they’ve had the necessary shots. These attestation forms will be audited and managers can ask for proof of vaccination at any time. “Lying would mean disciplinary measures would be taken. It’s consequential for an employee to lie,” a senior government official said, adding that a false statement would breach the Values and Ethics Code for the Public Sector and could result in termination.

The Globe has a story focused on the implications for travellers.

What about MPs? Star columnist Althia Raj has an astute column on how the Conservatives could get wedged on the vax status of their caucus, even though the election is over, because there will be pressure to impose a vaccination mandate in the House of Commons.

Last year, when the government — with the consent of the Conservative leadership — tried to pass emergency pandemic legislation sight unseen, Conservative MP Scott Reid defied orders and showed up on the Hill to make some valid points about this dangerous precedent. It is not inconceivable that several unvaccinated Tories would — if the Bloc, NDP and Liberals adopt mandatory vaccination — stand up to argue their “privileges” as members are being breached. These are essentially rights in Parliament that allow MPs to fulfil their duties unimpeded, with “freedom from obstruction, interference and intimidation.” Some Liberals relish the thought of seeing Conservative MPs stand up and plead for permission to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.

Sorry for Tofino: Trudeau also took the occasion to apologize for skipping events on the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation to hit the beach with his family, the Globe reports. “Travelling on September 30th was a mistake, and I regret it. I’m focused on making this right.”

Often sorry: In the Post, John Ivison disapprovingly enumerates some of Trudeau’s apologies.

Not getting it: Chrystia Freeland says the leadership of the Canadian Forces just don’t get it, Global reports, when it comes to the handling of sexual misconduct within the Canadian Armed Forces. She was commenting on the removal of an officer from his role reviewing sexual misconduct files after it was revealed that he wrote a positive reference letter for a sex offender.

Headed for exits: Alice Chen, in the Hill Times, has a poignant story based on interviews with MPs who lost their seats in the recent election, including Lenore Zann, who said the experience “feels like another death.”

Liberals get Quebec seat: The Liberals won the riding of Châteauguay-Lacolle by 12 seats after a recount, CTV reports

Greens said to exist: Elizabeth May shares her thoughts about the state of the Green Party with CBC: “I know this puts me in a bad situation but it’s important for Canadians to know that there is a Green Party. It’s important for people to know the Green Party exists. We’re not going away. We will rebuild.”

ICYMI: William Shatner is going to space.

— Stephen Maher

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The Peace Tower on Oct. 5, 2021 (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

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Colossal folly: In a long and emotionally astute meditation on the election in Maclean’s, Shannon Proudfoot surveys the battered, hollow-eyed nation that spent the last 19 months living through endless sneaky hate spirals, and then was confronted with an election, which, reasonably enough, it was not in the mood for.

The fourth wave of the pandemic was already gathering itself, and at that precise moment, the Afghans who had helped Canadians were scrambling onto planes at a Kabul airport if they were lucky, or being left behind in a sewage canal to try their luck with the Taliban if they were not. Justin Trudeau, having dissolved Parliament to trigger an election, purred to a bedraggled country, “We’ve had your back, and now it’s time to hear your voice.” It was like someone wandering out of the forest with sticks in their hair, dried blood on their face and eyes like lumps of coal, only to find a tidily dressed Canada Revenue Agency employee waiting to audit them: you want what from me? Are you serious? Now?

It was a surly, destructive campaign, foisted on an electorate that had run out of personal bandwidth, revealing unpleasant things about the state of this country and the problems that will still be staring at us when COVID-19 is over. It’s not a cheerful read, but it’s tough to argue with.

Not as a whole: At a news conference on Tuesday, Francois Legault refused to support a coroner’s recommendation that Quebec government recognize systemic racism after the death of Joyce Echaquan, the Gazette and La Presse report. “We cannot claim that the system as a whole is racist,” he said, contradicting the coroner who blamed racism for the death of a mother of seven, who was mocked in her final hours by health-care workers. The Parti Quebecois says the coroner exceeded her mandate, Le Journal de Montréal reports.

The family announced a lawsuit, CP reports. A Globe editorial argues that Legault, in getting into an argument about racism, is leading Quebecers to the wrong debate.

Fight another day: Erin O’Toole came out of a six-hour caucus meeting, the first since the election, to tell reporters that everything is going fine, CP reports. As expected, MPs voted to give themselves the power to review his leadership, which doesn’t mean they will. Some MPs are clearly unhappy, but he was upbeat: “This is not about a sword of Damocles hanging over my head. We’re united as a team. This is about having a fair and transparent process that a team must have when it respects one another.”

There is to be a report on the election loss conducted by defeated Alberta MP James Cumming and former minister Christian Paradis. There is no move, as yet, to move up a review of O’Toole’s leadership by party members, but Senator Michael Macdonald has sent an email to his colleagues calling for O’Toole to get the boot, the Globe reports.

Inauthenticity: In the National PostTasha Kheiriddin takes O’Toole and Justin Trudeau both to task for failing to show leadership.

In other words, O’Toole had to pretend to be someone he isn’t to win the Conservative crown — and he went along for the ride. It was a far longer journey than Trudeau’s Tofino trip, with even more places to stop and say “THIS. IS. NOT. WHO. I. AM.” But O’Toole did not say that; indeed, no one said that, because the goal was to win and then figure things out after that. That left those who voted for O’Toole 1.0 feeling betrayed by the emergence of O’Toole 2.0 The lesson in both cases is that leadership demands authenticity. A real leader practises what he preaches, and asks others to do as he does, not as he says.

Downright weird: Her colleague, Chris Selley, is still trying to understand why Trudeau went to Tofino.

If more non-Indigenous Canadians than ever before are seized with addressing past wrongs and helping Indigenous people build healthier and more prosperous futures, this is a moment not to be passed up. So even after four days to process the news, it remains astonishing, inexplicable and downright weird that Trudeau used last Thursday to attend precisely zero public events, instead jetting with his family from Ottawa to a favourite vacation spot on Vancouver Island.

Vax plan: CBC is reporting that this morning Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland will unveil details of the plan to make vaccines mandatory in the public service and for travellers.

Hospital invitation: Alberta ER doctors have issued an “urgent” invitation to the premier and health minister to visit an ICU in person to witness “the unfathomable horrors” there, Global reports.

There have been more than 1,000 new daily cases of COVID-19 for weeks and Alberta Health Services has had to reassign staff to handle the surge of intensive care patients. There have been mass cancellations of non-urgent surgeries as a result. Since the end of August, approximately 8,500 surgeries have been delayed or postponed, AHS said Tuesday. This included 805 pediatric surgeries. During that same time period, AHS completed 9,100 surgeries, including 3,500 emergency surgeries and 1,100 cancer surgeries.

Perplexing: Experts are questioning the Armed Forces decision to have Maj. Gen. Peter Dawe, who wrote a positive reference letter for a sex offender, working on reviews related to sexual misconduct, Global reports.

— Stephen Maher

The post Canada wasn’t in the mood for the 2021 federal election appeared first on Macleans.ca.


The letter "d" on a "danger" sign at Major's Hill park advising people to stay away from the cliff edge is painted over, leaving the word "anger", seen in front of Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021. (Photograph by Justin Tang)

Hyperbole and a Half is a slyly brilliant web comic in which author Allie Brosh uses manic, deliberately crude drawings to dismantle ordinary human experiences into shards of genius and madness.

In one, she laid out the “sneaky hate spiral,” a toddler-level total meltdown that otherwise reasonable adults fall into from time to time. “Sneaky hate spirals begin simply enough. That is one of the hallmarks—they are merely the confluence of many unremarkable annoyances,” Brosh wrote, accompanied by chicken-scratch drawings of her characters, still in bed in the morning, assaulted by a neighbour’s car alarm, by a cat, by La Bamba braying from the alarm. More small annoyances pile up as the day goes on: a paper cut; a lost wallet; La Bamba, again. “The little frustrations start to happen more quickly,” she wrote. “They ping against your psyche like hundreds of tiny pebbles.”

And then: the thing that sends you over the edge. “The turning point is usually a minor but slightly jarring incident, initiated by some force of nature that cannot be blamed or scolded—like gravity or sleeplessness or wind,” Brosh wrote. “In order to send you into truly bats–t crazy hysterics, the final straw must cause anger that cannot rationally be directed outward in any way.” Her characters are battered by the weather, or lie sleepless and wild-eyed in their beds until, finally, they absolutely lose their minds. The final set of illustrations depicts Brosh’s main character—eyes transformed into lunatic dinner plates, mouth a gaping feral crescent—gazing skyward and screaming at a bird that wronged her.

READ: The broken triumph of Justin Trudeau

In this story, Justin Trudeau is the bird. Or maybe the federal election is the bird. But anyway, the point stands.

Everyone has spent the last 19 months living through endless sneaky hate spirals, little indignities and frustrations piling on top of other burdens too heavy to bear. The grocery store is out of toilet paper, Zoom meetings are janky, you have a new baby whose grandparents have never inhaled him. A kid woke up with a sore throat so everyone has to stay home and there goes your workday; someone in your family dies and there is no funeral, no gathering, no comfort to be had; dentist appointments are impossible to find; every day you must go into a workplace where you are in peril. And, for far too many families and circles of friends, the ultimate toll of the pandemic: an empty chair and a deck of memories in place of someone beloved who is never coming back.

Then, into everyone’s midst, near the end of another summer that felt near-normal, a smiling man in a nice suit strode to a podium. The fourth wave of the pandemic was already gathering itself, and at that precise moment, the Afghans who had helped Canadians were scrambling onto planes at a Kabul airport if they were lucky, or being left behind in a sewage canal to try their luck with the Taliban if they were not. Justin Trudeau, having dissolved Parliament to trigger an election, purred to a bedraggled country, “We’ve had your back, and now it’s time to hear your voice.”

It was like someone wandering out of the forest with sticks in their hair, dried blood on their face and eyes like lumps of coal, only to find a tidily dressed Canada Revenue Agency employee waiting to audit them: you want what from me? Are you serious? Now?

An assignment. A further demand on the personal bandwidth most people ran out of months ago. And something more pointedly insulting, too. Canadians have spent the last year and a half watching political leaders at various levels flail about like one of those inflatable tube men at a car lot, in many cases with about as much foresight and judgment. And suddenly we had to vote for more of them? This election pushed an already bowed public to the snapping point, and in the process revealed some unpleasant things about the state of this country and the problems that will still be staring at us when COVID-19 is over.

PM Trudeau speaks with supporters at the airport in Regina. August 20, 2021. (Courtesy of Adam Scotti/Liberal Party of Canada)

Trudeau strode up to a podium and asked Canadians to give just a little bit more of themselves in an election. (Courtesy of Adam Scotti/Liberal Party of Canada)

***

Federalism has afforded gloriously convenient buck-passing opportunities for leaders who didn’t feel like leading over the last year and a half and instead stepped onto the press conference dais each day sporting a rhetorical “I’m with stupid” shirt pointing to the next level of government.

School safety and continuity, business lockdowns, testing and tracing, paid sick leave, vaccine deployment, vaccine passports—you could set your watch by the regularity with which Ontario Premier Doug Ford would refuse to do the thing he obviously needed to do and people would scream at him for two weeks before he capitulated. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, meanwhile, was so hubristic and obsessed with party-planning the “best summer ever” that he all but hand-fed his citizens to the buzz saw of COVID, with Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe lumbering along in his footsteps.

In terms of its own pandemic response, the federal government delivered, and delivered well, on the huge files of emergency income supports and vaccine procurement. But they were slow and mincing in closing the borders, and a national vaccination passport for travel is unlikely to be a reality until next year.

Worst of all, the second, third and fourth waves rolled over the country as though the ones that preceded them had never happened, as though no one at any level had learned one single thing. So with his field trip to Rideau Hall, Trudeau was compelling the country to re-up its supply of a commodity that hadn’t exactly covered itself in glory of late.

Even Trudeau’s close friend and former principal secretary, Gerald Butts, highlighted in an interview with me the unwanted nature of the election, and how it appeared to have caught the government off guard. “I think if you were to summarize this election in one sentence, it would be: I’m really annoyed we’re having this election, but do I want to change the government because I’m annoyed we’re having an election?” he said.

The final outcome—a minority Liberal government and a House of Commons eerily identical to its composition at dissolution—was difficult not to interpret as the electorate sending everyone to sit in a corner and think about what they’d done.

***

Six days before that begrudging answer arrived, Ottawa-area Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld set out on an afternoon canvas, with Central Park as her destination. It’s a curious neighbourhood within her Ottawa West–Nepean riding because the houses and streets look like new builds from the distant suburbs—the streets have names like Bloomingdale, Staten and Trump, the latter of which has been the subject of a failed renaming attempt—but it’s well within the Greenbelt, a 10-minute drive from Parliament Hill.

The vast majority of the voters she encountered were pleasant and polite, sometimes to a dishonest degree. At one door, Vandenbeld—who was first elected in 2015 with a wave of Liberal MPs who gave Trudeau a majority—asked a man in his 30s if he would vote for her. “Yeah,” he said with a shy grin. The moment Vandenbeld walked away, she directed a volunteer to classify the household in her tracking app. “That was an undecided,” she said. “Maybe even a no.”

Others were quite comfortable telling her what they didn’t like about her party. One woman identified herself as a federal public servant who didn’t see why her employer required her to be vaccinated if she works from home. “So you’re not going to get vaccinated?” Vandenbeld asked. “Doesn’t matter,” the woman said. She agreed the vaccines are helping but believes people have to make their own choices, and argued concerns around the Delta variant are overblown. “I wanted to let you know why I’m closing the door in your face,” she said, very calm.

Protesters gather at the Foothills Hospital to oppose COVID-19 related public health measures in Calgary, Alta., Monday, Sept. 13, 2021. (Jeff McIntosh/CP)

Protesters at the Foothills hospital in Calgary voice their objections to COVID-19-related public health measures. (Jeff McIntosh/CP)

On one street corner, a nurse who had finished a night shift was waiting for her kids to get off the school bus. Vandenbeld thanked her profusely for her work and commented with disgust on the hospital protesters. “The patients find it really upsetting,” the nurse said, caught off guard by her own sudden tears. As she and Vandenbeld were talking, a man in his 50s driving a black BMW pulled up, his face set in the look of someone who badly wanted to get into a fight before they closed the bar. “Why does your leader hate women so much?” he shouted at Vandenbeld. She disputed the premise, before trying to resume her conversation with the nurse. “You’re on the wrong team. Look at you all,” he said, giving the group a thorough once-over before snarling “F–king losers” as he drove off.

At several houses, people apologized that they hadn’t really thought about the election. Others brought up childcare and climate change as their big issues; one woman told Vandenbeld that she was happy with the government’s vaccine efforts, but displeased about its approach to Indigenous issues. Sometimes you could see the trail of disinformation breadcrumbs littered in someone’s web browser, as when a man in his late 60s said freedom of conscience for doctors was his concern, before primly citing the completely untrue statistic that 6,000 people in the Netherlands were euthanized against their will last year.

On her way to another house, Vandenbeld (who would convincingly win the riding) spotted a couple who looked like they were returning from a run, but the moment she trotted over, the man unleashed a torrent of abuse about how everyone who works on Parliament Hill should be ashamed of themselves. His wife moved further up the driveway and made a noise that might have been exasperation or empathy, but either way was the noise of someone who had seen this show before.

The man’s vitriol didn’t seem partisan-specific, just an all-encompassing cloud of resentment. “You’re selfish, elitist scum. You go there and take a paycheque for doing absolutely nothing for society,” he snarled. “You’re disgusting.” Vandenbeld tried to interject, but he spit, “No, shut up, you guys talk enough.”

These aggressive encounters were the exception but were rattling, and they fit the widely reported trend of a surly, destructive campaign: signs destroyed or stolen faster than teams could repair or replace them, racist and anti-Semitic graffiti, paranoid insults about lockdown Nazis and protesters swarming Trudeau’s events.

But in the same week as Vandenbeld’s canvas, another exchange of political ideas among citizens suggested how things might be different, and also hinted at more dark currents beneath the surface. Ipsos convened an online focus group for Maclean’s of six Canadians from across the country and the political spectrum, and with first names and real faces, this discussion was calm and outright genial.

Voters line up at the Toronto Public Library - Parkdale Branch on September 20, 2021 in Toronto, Canada. Canadians are going to the polls amid the COVID-19 pandemic after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal party called an election. This election saw a record turnout to advance polls prior to election day. (Ian Willms/Getty Images)

Voters on election day, Sept. 20, outside the Toronto Public Library’s Parkdale branch. (Ian Willms/Getty Images)

There was pervasive frustration with what Patrick from Quebec called “a small minority that are angry and very loud” in protesting vaccines and public health measures, and with the fact that they draw so much attention. Julie from Vancouver backed apologetically into her opinion, but nearly the whole group nodded and grinned in agreement. “This might be a bit petty, but people on the bus complaining about having to wear masks drive me a bit crazy,” she said. “I wish people could understand that we’re all in it together and we have to just work toward keeping each other safe.”

But it was the inherent selfishness of people that was the enduring lesson for several others. “They’re asked to do something for the greater good and they feel that everything’s been taken away from them,” said Terry from Toronto. “You can tell that if we got into a war or something like that, there’s no way the majority of people would be able to handle that.”

At another point, he articulated an idea that came up several times; viewed one way, it showed compassion toward political leaders, but just below the surface, it was its own harsh indictment.“I think they’re just all tired and they don’t want to make some of the decisions they’re making,” he said. “I’m sure the majority of them don’t want to be in the position they are in right now, but unfortunately someone has to be there, so they’re stuck.” People nodded in agreement at this notion of political leaders as sullen teenagers dragged to church. Mary Ellen from Toronto didn’t like the Liberals, but even she didn’t think it made sense to switch up the government at this fragile point. “It’s this whole changing horses in the middle of a race,” she said. “Maybe we should have been concerned with finishing the race.”

Fifty minutes into the discussion, the moderator, Brad Griffin, president of Ipsos Qualitative, was finding it impossible to figure out where the group was at. One moment they sounded optimistic and hopeful, but the next they tumbled down some dark tunnel and were lost to him again.

The participants mentioned the tiniest of joys that fed their souls right now—one just saw her best friend for the first time in two years, two others had learned that online gatherings with loved ones at holidays are awkward but could be real sources of happiness and connection. Some were grateful the pandemic had pared their life down to what they now understood were the only things that matter, but there was an obvious sadness there; you only recognize the essentials when you’ve lost so much already.

A healthcare worker holds a sign as demonstrators gather outside Toronto General Hospital on Monday, September 13, 2021, to protest against COVID-19 vaccines, COVID-19 vaccine passports and COVID-19 related restrictions. (Chris Young/CP)

A health-care worker outside Toronto General shares his own message with demonstrators. (Chris Young/CP)

What the group described, over and over, was a narrowing of their field of vision. What they had the capacity to care about, what they could muster energy for, what they could find a spirit of generosity for, and the time frame in which they knew what to expect or could plan something to look forward to had shrunken to a tiny porthole of protective selfishness and immediacy. They all seemed troubled by that creeping smallness, but how could it be any other way?

Listening to them, the colossal folly in asking an entire country of people who can’t look up from their anxiously gnawed fingernails to choose a new government was obvious.

It wasn’t until the end of the 90-minute session that Griffin figured them out. As they swung wildly between morose nihilism and the most tiptoeing sort of hope, he finally realized it was familiar because that’s the landscape inside his head, too. “That’s any given day during this pandemic, right?” he said afterward. “I can’t get a bead on myself. I don’t think anyone can get a bead on anything.”

While Griffin hears people out on the qualitative side of things, his colleague Mike Colledge, president of Ipsos Public Affairs Canada, has a constant stock-ticker view of the public mood through the polling firm’s quantitative questions in the field. There have been dragons lurking for a long time.

One of the measures Ipsos produces is called the “disruption barometer,” which incorporates measures like how people feel about the overall direction of the country, the regional and national economy now and in the future, and their own job and economic security. When disruption is higher, people are more likely to vote for change, spend less, become more demanding in their interactions with government and business, and regional or demographic frictions tear at social cohesion. “You need to read the room,” says Colledge.

And the disruption barometer in Canada was looking to-hell-in-a-handbasket-ish well before the pandemic. Near the end of 2018, sentiment tipped into the negative, which was puzzling for Colledge and his colleagues because unemployment was at a 40-year low and the economy was humming. But when they talked to people in focus groups like Griffin’s, they heard, sure there were plenty of jobs out there, but a lot of them are terrible and I have to work two of them just to survive. That feeling of being strapped to a treadmill where you are doomed to fall off lasted through 2019. “We were pretty beaten down,” Colledge says.

Then COVID hit, and everyone started grading on a curve, with the blind anxiety of March 2020 as their benchmark for how things were going at present. That is why earlier this summer, the disruption barometer was relatively buoyant, as Canada’s vaccination campaign roared along. “I would say we were up artificially, in anticipation that we were breaking the back of COVID,” Colledge says. Then it became obvious that the fourth wave was rising, so who knows when this is really over, sending our national mood into disarray yet again.

***

The letter "d" on a "danger" sign at Major's Hill park advising people to stay away from the cliff edge is painted over, leaving the word "anger", seen in front of Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021. (Photograph by Justin Tang)

(Photograph by Justin Tang)

A week and a half before election day, I was downtown wandering through Major’s Hill Park, a green hilltop expanse with spectacular views in every direction of the National Gallery of Canada, the Ottawa River and Parliament Hill. The park is ringed by a black metal fence that protects people from the steep drop to the river below, and the area just beyond the fence is dotted with yellow-and-black warning signs. The signs show a little cartoon man tumbling off a stylized cliff, with the word “DANGER!” emblazoned below. Someone with a good sense of humour, a big Sharpie and no apparent fear of heights had meticulously erased the Ds, so that you had this gorgeous park in the nation’s capital framing a postcard view of Parliament, festooned with signs warning of “ANGER!”

A bit on the nose, but nice scripting.

I commented to a woman nearby that the image seemed appropriate for the moment, by which I meant the late-pandemic purgatory. She hooted and then bellowed, “Yeah, we coulda used those in 2019!” with the ferocious energy of someone who had either been waiting months for that opening, or who has this exact conversation 27 times every day.

Beneath the COVID shadow, there is something much more subtle and troubling that Colledge can foresee in the public mood. There was a clarifying and simplifying effect to the pandemic: the house is on fire and all that matters is that we put it out, so everyone please line up for the bucket brigade. But when that moment passes, all of those big, deep problems that had people feeling anxious, frustrated and resentful before the pandemic will still be there, with nothing to distract from them. “Two months after ‘We’re out of COVID,’ people turn to, ‘Okay, well, what about the other issues? What about racism? What about climate change? What about affordability?’ ” Colledge says. “And none of those have been solved. We just sort of parked those for 18 months.”

That is where this new-old Liberal government should mark out the dragons on their mental maps. On some please-God-not-too-distant day, the pandemic won’t even be worth a segment on the evening news anymore. And when the fire is out and the smoke finally clears, Canadians are going to look around at the house they share and remember all the tatty bits and jagged edges that were waiting to ensnare them before COVID obliterated everything else.

That is going to be one heck of a cleanup job. And a battered, hollow-eyed nation, still heaving for breath after two years of sneaky hate spirals shrinking their lives down to the things they could clutch in their hands, is going to be staring at the smiling man at the microphone and his government, waiting for answers.


This article appears in print in the November 2021 issue of Maclean’s magazine. Subscribe to the monthly print magazine here.

The post How to make an entire country furious appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Erin O'Toole in Ottawa on September 21, 2021. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Welcome to a sneak peek of the Maclean’s Politics Insider newsletter. Sign up to get it delivered straight to your inbox in the morning.

O’Toole faces his MPs: Conservative MPs will gather today for their first caucus meeting since the recent election, which ought to give everyone a better sense of Erin O’Toole’s immediate future. One big item on their agenda — and what a pity it will happen behind closed doors — is the vote over the Reform Act, which the caucus could use, theoretically, to defenestrate their leader. CTV has the story.

Whining and dining: The Star‘s Stephanie Levitz surveys opinion in the caucus and finds no incipient revolt, but some grumbling.

Meanwhile, as caucus gets briefed Tuesday, O’Toole’s campaign team will be doing a post-election briefing for members of the Albany Club, where the perceived power brokers of the Conservative movement like to wine, whine and dine. A fear that the party is becoming more beholden to the members of that club than its own grassroots is an issue that’s rankled for months, and some say reflects the fact O’Toole never spent much time on the party’s backbench.

So sorry: There is a some interesting commentary on the prime minister’s whereabouts on the weekend, beginning with a funny column from Maclean’s own Marie Danielle Smith imagining Trudeau’s ultimate apology.

I’m sorry I created a federal holiday for reconciliation then went and spent part of it vacationing. I’m sorry I didn’t go to Kelowna instead. I’m sorry my itinerary said I would be in “private meetings” in Ottawa and didn’t mention my flight to Tofino. I’m especially sorry this sojourn attracted national attention. Because—cough-fishwrap-cough—we should all have been focusing on reconciliation. So what I’m sorry about, most of all, is that you seized on my trip rather than spending the day in quiet reflection. The thing is, I keep saying “sorry” over and over and over. But what makes me feel the sorriest is how my apologies never seem to satisfy you. Even when I use all the right words.

Non-negotiable: In the Post, Colby Cosh has an interesting rumination on how we think about politicians and elections. He, too, imagines what Trudeau might say to voters, if he were to be honest.

“I was in an awkward position because I promised my unfortunate wife and my blameless children that we would have a getaway as soon as the very rigorous and exhausting election campaign was over. We didn’t see the problem with the timing soon enough, and, as you can imagine, I have long since depleted the store of excuses that even a prime minister can offer to his family. This one was non-negotiable, and I’m confident that every husband will understand my situation.”

Jaw-dropping vacuum: At CTV, Don Martin writes that the prime minister’s absence from reconciliation ceremonies suggests not all is well in his operation.

Such a jaw-dropping vacuum of common political sense at the top of this government’s sprawling-staff pyramid can only be caused by one of three things. Either his advisers have all come down with a third-term case of scheduling blindness and communications incompetence. Or the prime minister was warned about the brutal optics of flying directly over residential school burial sites to reach some prime surfing beaches – and opted to ignore them anyway. Or his staff are too scared to red flag even the most jarring oversight on a super-sensitive file that already requires every word in every statement to be vetted by a dozen bureaucrats.

What happened? In Maclean’s, Justin Ling has a revealing piece looking at an election study based on focus groups, which show that the Liberals’ election promises struck voters as insufficiently concrete, which suggests they were in trouble in the campaign.

One of the most insightful takeaways from the consultants’ study was around affordability—particularly a hot, increasingly inaccessible, housing market and spiking gas prices. “The major party platforms nibbled around the edges of the basket, but with no leader successfully addressing this issue head-on, the electorate chose to reward none of them,” they warned. Affordability and inequality have crashed together in a particularly poignant way during the pandemic. As one small-business-owner voter explained: “We’re the hardest hit. And when you look at how ridiculous a lot of the restrictions were, like your basic mom and pop shops closed down and Walmart, or Costco or stayed open.”

Close to majority: In the Hill Times, Abbas Ranna crunches the numbers and looks at how the Liberals could have won a majority:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals could have won a majority government in the Sept. 20 election if they had received 16,870 more votes spread across 11 ridings, according to an analysis by The Hill Times.

In-between person: In the Star, Jacques Gallant has an interesting profile of the first first openly Two-Spirit member of Parliament, the new NDP MP for for Edmonton Griesbach.

There’s a word in Cree — tastawiyiniwak — that Blake Desjarlais says best describes him. It means “the in-between people.” “I love that word because it helps to demonstrate how I operate and see myself,” said Desjarlais, 27. “I see myself between this terrible binary that’s been created — the Western world imposed this male/female binary, ‘this way or that way’ kind of mentality.”

Back on the job: Global has a disturbing story from Mercedes Stephenson and Rachel Gilmore revealing that a general who wrote a reference letter for a sex offender has been tasked with working on a number of reviews related to sexual misconduct within the Canadian Armed Forces.

Pallister out: Brian Pallister has resigned from the legislature five weeks after stepping down as premier, CP reports. Manitoba Tories choose a new leader Oct. 30.

No fines: It seems international travellers who wanted to avoid quarantining needed only to fly to Calgary, CBC reports, presumably since the government was so badly organized it couldn’t hand out fines.

Feds could mandate vaccination: Federal officials were told in the spring that the government could make it mandatory for all workers to receive the vaccine, CP’s Jordan Press reports. Although public health is under provincial jurisdiction, documents say the federal government could consider making vaccines “a national interest item.”

Jab them: In the Globe, Andre Picard makes a compelling argument that health care workers should be compelled to get jabbed.

MPs also: And the Hill Times argues that MPs need to be vaccinated.

22 per cent: A new poll shows Jason Kenney is so unpopular that he could be doomed, veteran Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid writes.

— Stephen Maher

The post Erin O’Toole faces his first Conservative caucus vote appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Trudeau poses for a photo as he greets commuters at a Montreal Metro station on Sept. 21, 2021 (Sean Kilpatrick/CP)

The Liberal Party’s pyrrhic victory in last week’s federal election may have been closer to a defeat than the final tally would suggest.

According to interviews with Liberal supporters conducted after the Sept. 20 vote, voters were less than enthusiastic about staying with Justin Trudeau’s party—but his oft-touted childcare plan may offer some clues as to why they did.

“The COVID pandemic fundamentally altered the psyche of the Canadian voter,” reads a memo prepared by a consulting firm, which conducted 10 focus groups across the country in the days after the election.

The focus groups were conducted for a number of industry groups and companies, and not paid for by the Liberal Party. The source who provided the results asked that Maclean’s not identify the firm that conducted the research, because it was not yet meant to be shared publicly.

In those conversations, the voters were keen on the idea of, as Trudeau phrases it often, “building back better.” They were receptive to new programs, new entitlements, and new federal mechanisms to address a raft of issues: Chief among them, a rising affordability crisis, income inequality, and climate change. The deficit seemed like a far-off concern, though the firm found support for the idea of making big companies and the rich pay their “fair share.” There was clearly a liberal attitude in the voting public.

READ: The Prime Minister is sorry, okay? Really sorry.

But the focus groups found a chasm between those voters’ wants, and what was being offered by the Liberal Party.

“Voters want tactile, comprehensible proof of action—things that they can see or touch: an electric car, not a price on carbon; a $10 daycare around the corner from their house, and not an agreement-in-principle to hire more daycare workers,” the summary reads.

On climate change in particular, the consultants found “there was no doubting the emotional intensity of voter concern about this issue. Yet almost no one gave Trudeau credit for the hard-fought price on carbon; the existence of a soon-to-be-tripled cheque rebate also went unmentioned.”

But voters were not clueless, by any measure. Some referenced a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which offered dire warnings over the need to act quickly to avert the most destructive effects of climate change, even in the short term. Many were enthusiastic about drastic action.

“I would like to see us lead rather than even just trying to keep…the status quo,” one Toronto voter said.

One word that kept coming up: “Invest.” These Liberal voters were fairly blunt: Canada should be putting money into the companies, whether they be start-ups or existing oil-and-gas firms, that can innovate efficiencies. “We just wasted 600 million bucks on an election,” one voter said. “I’m sure we can spend $600 million on investing in different types of companies.”

The report notes that a general skepticism or indifference towards the Liberals’ record may “present an opportunity for the right actor to tap into this sentiment.” Who that actor will be remains to be seen—in the recently-concluded campaign, the Conservatives’ climate plan used the right language but offered a farcical set of solutions; while the NDP and Greens offered soaring targets and no coherent plan on how to reach them. Climate expert Mark Jaccard assessed that, even if the targets were more modest, the Liberals’ plan was the most credible of the lot. Voters seemed to be looking for ambition and credibility, in equal measure.

One of the most insightful takeaways from the consultants’ study was around affordability—particularly a hot, increasingly inaccesible, housing market and spiking gas prices.

“The major party platforms nibbled around the edges of the basket, but with no leader successfully addressing this issue head-on, the electorate chose to reward none of them,” they warned.

Affordability and inequality have crashed together in a particularly poignant way during the pandemic. As one small-business-owner voter explained: “We’re the hardest hit. And when you look at how ridiculous a lot of the restrictions were, like your basic mom and pop shops closed down and Walmart, or Costco or stayed open.”

There may have been an opening there for the other parties, but they clearly did not succeed in getting that point across. “Banks … saw their shares increase, they saw their dividends increase, even though they took wage subsidies and business support subsidies,” one Ontario voter said. “So I think that was a misstep by the government.”

PAUL WELLS: The broken triumph of Justin Trudeau

If the Liberals can claim one success from the campaign, it would be childcare. The consultants called it a “universal hit” with voters in their focus groups.

“Success on this file looks similar to cannabis: at a hyper local, neighbourhood level, Canadians can see that was a promise made and promise kept,” the consultants noted. “If, by the time this voter returns to the polls, the Liberals have not delivered on childcare, then they will face trouble.”

One Alberta voter (who doesn’t currently stand to benefit from the program) told the consultants that Trudeau’s childcare pledge was “by far and away was the big one for me, in terms of policy.” An Ontario voter seemed incredulous at the Conservatives’ alternative: A new refundable tax credit. “Do they know the $10 a day daycare helps a ton?” The voter wondered aloud.

But there is a pitfall there for the Liberals. Under their agreements—which they’ve signed with all provinces and territories, save Alberta, Ontario, and New Brunswick—fees will be slashed by next year, but the promised $10-a-day pledge won’t come into force until 2026.

Trudeau’s third victory, even if it was at a high cost for no great reward, does show the strength of his connection with an entire chunk of voters—even if their patience is wearing thin.

“As a single working mom, the Liberals have changed my life. I feel a real loyalty to them,” one voter told the focus groups, hailing from a B.C. riding the Liberals narrowly kept. “I feel like we’ve been cared for, and I want Trudeau to keep on track with working families.”

I put some of these findings to Lenore Zann, a rare Liberal who lost her seat in September—falling behind the Conservatives in the semi-rural Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland—Colchester.

“The COVID lockdown, it’s made people angry,” Zann told me. “People are so quick to anger these days…And that has also affected the way people think and whether they want to be bothered voting.”

To some degree, Zann’s assessment is pretty bog standard for a political venture that didn’t go according to plan—voters just didn’t get the message. She’s been there before: Provincially, she was elected as a New Democrat when her party rose to its first-ever victory in 2009, only to be turfed four years later. (Zann was one of seven New Democrats to keep their seats, which she resigned in 2019 to run for Trudeau’s Liberals.)

Zann likens governing as a progressive to captaining “a great big huge ocean liner that’s speeding along—and you’re trying to change it, you know, without tipping the whole thing over.” From childcare to their climate plan, she was surprised to see voters neither enthused about the Liberal record, nor excited about the roadmap for a planned-for majority government.

In our conversation, though, Zann started to sound like some of the Liberals in those focus groups.

“Having been on the inside, believe me [COVID-19] suddenly had to take over everything. We had to put aside personal projects that we wanted to see happen and just make sure that people’s lives were saved,” she said. In recent months, as vaccines have been deployed across the country and a light at the end of the tunnel emerged, she says the mentality has changed: “Suddenly, it’s like, oh my god, we have to now put all these resources to all these other things.” At the same time, she notes, the inequality between those who suffered the most during the pandemic and those who have amassed a dizzying new amount of wealth, is increasingly stark.

Where the Liberals appear to have failed is convincing Canadians that they have reallocated those resources to the right things, in proper measure.

Paul Wells recently made the case that this election was folly precisely because it interrupted the kind of work that Trudeau continually insists is urgent, necessary, and important. I think these focus group Liberals would agree: They want the government they’ve got, not the one Trudeau wants, to get cracking on it.

Zann leaves behind unfinished work that her government ought to pick back up. She introduced private members’ legislation to require Ottawa develop an environmental racism strategy—taking into account the disproportionate impact climate change could have on racialized and Indigenous communities. That bill, like many others, died when an election was called.

All told, the focus groups offer a rare and intimate look at why people voted the way they did. They show that, even if voters aren’t necessarily consuming and digesting the messages packaged for them by the campaigns, they are—generally—taking the time to read the platforms, get their head around the issues, and kick the tires on each party. Policy does, in fact, matter. But if Trudeau can’t get a plan together to match action with his soaring rhetoric, and someone else can, these voters are unlikely to remain loyal for long.

The post How close did the Liberals come to losing? appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Justin Trudeau in Ottawa on the eve of the first National Day of Truth and Reconciliation, September 29, 2021. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

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Justin Trudeau has apologized to a British Columbia First Nation after he began a family holiday in Tofino rather than attending a reconciliation event near the former Kamloops Indian Residential School on the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, the Globe reports.

Alex Wellstead, a spokesperson in the Prime Minister’s Office, told The Globe and Mail Sunday that Mr. Trudeau reached out to (Chief) Kukpi7 Casimir and the two spoke by phone on Saturday. Mr. Wellstead said Mr. Trudeau offered an apology, but the Prime Minister’s Office did not provide further details on the nature of the apology.

Hurtful: The prime minister’s decision to skip public events was “very hurtful for survivors and intergenerational trauma survivors,” National Chief RoseAnne Archibald told Global.

She later put out a statement asking media outlets to give as much time to survivors’ stories as they do to Trudeau’s absence on Sept 30.

Susan Delacourt writes in the Star that Trudeau and his team may have messed up because they are worn out.

It’s entirely possible that this is an error born of exhaustion. Trudeau and his senior staff have been going flat out for two months on the road during the election campaign and were plunged immediately afterward into the high-scale drama of Canada-China relations and the release of the two Michaels last weekend. Trudeau flew out late Friday night to meet Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig when they touched down on Canadian soil after more than 1,000 days in Chinese prisons. In other words, yes, the prime minister and all his advisers need a holiday — just maybe not on the first National Day of Truth and Reconciliation.

Chantal Hebert, also writing in the Star, notes that Trudeau could have used the occasion to announce that the federal government would stop its legal battle against Indigenous children.

If he had wanted to mark Canada’s very first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, the prime minister could have announced a decision along those lines on Thursday. Instead, his contribution to the event will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. While Canadians across the country were attending ceremonies and marches designed to mark the occasion, Trudeau skipped town to join his family in Tofino. The only prime ministerial sighting on Thursday featured a beach.

Hebert concludes that Trudeau’s absence proved his critics right.

May won’t lead Greens again: Elizabeth May told CTV she will not be interim leader of the Greens after the departure of Annamie Paul, and responded to a suggestion from Paul’s EA that she could have been more helpful: “I feel a bit like I’m subject to gaslighting here because I wasn’t allowed to speak and I supported Annamie so much in the leadership, there’s no question. I would have done and did do whatever she asked of me.”

She explains her view further in a piece in the Star.

It appears to me that Ms. Paul expected her role to be similar to that of a CEO/chair following the American business model, and that she demanded relatively autocratic powers along those lines. The federal council resisted, but in the event were ground down and acceded to almost everything Annamie Paul requested. She was granted many of those elements of top-down leadership and authority which Green leaders do not customarily get. She alone controlled the choice of campaign manager. She controlled many key decisions in a non-transparent campaign working group. It may have been the clash in culture created by her having more authority than any previous leader, yet far short of her expectations, that led to a very unpleasant relationship between the elected leader and the elected volunteers on council.

What happened: Two in-depth pieces explore the conflict between Paul and party officials, one from Radio Canada, in French, and one in English in the Star.

Glass cliff: In the Globe, Erica Ifill argues that black female leaders often face a “glass cliff.”

There will be those who insist that race wasn’t a factor in the Green Party’s marginalization of Annamie Paul. But of course race is a factor when the first Black woman to lead a federal party doesn’t actually get a real chance to lead over a short term, and is instead bogged down by internal attacks, leadership questions and a lack of support that wasn’t evident before she arrived.

Borderline angry: Vaccinated snowbirds who live in their RVs can’t understand why the U.S. border is still closed to them, CBC reports.

The U.S has extended its land border closure until at least Oct. 21. If that date is extended into November, Fordham said the couple will pay a commercial driver around $700 to transport their RV across the Michigan land border. Although Canadian travellers currently can’t cross by land, there are no restrictions on them importing vehicles to the U.S.

Inside story: In the Star, Tonda MacCharles has some interesting behind-the-scenes information about the repatriation of the Michaels.

Help for Alberta: The Armed Forces will “be in position” Monday to decide where to deploy eight critical care nurses that will help Alberta combat the fourth wave of COVID-19, CP reports. The Red Cross will also provide up to 20 medical professionals. Alberta is dealing with more than 1,000 new cases a day.

Who goes where? CBC’s David Cochrane has a good cabinet speculation piece.

— Stephen Maher

The post Justin Trudeau apologizes to a B.C. First Nation after his Tofino trip appeared first on Macleans.ca.