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Voters in Alberta’s big cities decided this week that their way to combat economic doldrums—and relate to Jason Kenney’s oft-prickly provincial government—was to choose history-making mayors with big visions of what local governments can do for them.

Edmontonians replaced Don Iveson with Amarjeet Sohi, a bus driver turned councillor turned Liberal cabinet minister who was defeated in the 2019 federal election. Sohi—who as a young man survived a wrongful arrest and political imprisonment in India—is the first person of colour to become Edmonton’s mayor.

After a decade of Naheed Nenshi, Calgarians chose its first woman as mayor: Jyoti Gondek, a one-term councillor with a PhD in urban sociology.

Maclean’s Alberta correspondent Jason Markusoff assembled both for a joint interview via Google Meet. The text has been edited for length and clarity.

Maclean’s: There was a Torontonian—one named Naheed no less—who tweeted on Monday: “Punjabi mayors in two of Alberta’s largest cities—who would have thought?” And one of Mr. Sohi’s supporters replied: “Those of us in Alberta.” How do we shake what you call a false reputation?

Sohi: People feel that we are not as diverse as other provinces when we are actually pretty diverse. Edmonton’s non-white population is, I think, about 40 per cent? It’s probably higher or similar in Calgary. Alberta has changed quite a bit over the last 20, 25 years. I think a lot of people don’t understand that. I hope that both of us being elected to lead two major urban centres in Alberta will help us reinforce how diverse—and not just how culturally diverse, but politically diverse—this province has become.

Maclean’s: What is urban sociology? I’d never heard of it before, but it sounds like the perfect CV item for a mayor.

Gondek: Urban sociology really boiled down to its basics is the intersection of people and places. It’s the study of, how did urban centres come to dominate our style of living? And what are the implications, good and bad? Sociological researchers have looked at things like homelessness, and how encampments maintain their population, because folks create a sense of community, even though all of us think, ‘Let’s get them out of cardboard boxes and get them into dignified housing.’ [But] then they lose the support of their community around them. All of the lessons of other cities that I’ve brought with me have helped me make better decisions here.

Maclean’s: Did you take that doctorate with this job in mind?

Gondek: Not at all. I spent four years on Calgary Planning Commission without a planning degree. But I cared about this stuff, and I dug in. I looked, and went: “I’ve spent 10 years volunteering in the community, getting a PhD, doing this as a professional consultant. Maybe I need to stop trying to influence from the outside and just seek a seat at the table.”

Maclean’s: Amarjeet, you went from civic politics to federal to now the mayor. Was this your political career brass ring when you were younger?

Sohi: I don’t think many of us first-generation immigrants move to a new place thinking, “One day, I’m going to run for office.” We move for a better life. What propelled me into politics was the harsh working conditions that I and many of my immigrant colleagues working with the city were facing. You talk about institutionalized racism. We were almost a 90-per-cent immigrant workforce. We were not treated like city employees. We were not given equal wage. We were not given any overtime. We were treated like we were here to provide that sense of bonded labour as an immigrant workforce. My colleagues looked to me: why would we not organize ourselves and try to improve our working conditions?

That was my introduction to City Hall, meeting with city councillors to talk about our working conditions. We had to take city administration to court in order to earn our rights. And I saw firsthand how public institutions impact our daily lives. That was my reason that I first ran in 2004.

Maclean’s: Many people might not know that you both have buses in your past. Amarjeet as a city bus driver, and Jyoti worked for Greyhound Canada. What’s your best bus metaphor for this job?

Gondek: People forget that with Greyhound, there’s that whole belly of the bus with unused room, sometimes. They started shipping parcels. They started a whole new business line based on the fact that Greyhound went everywhere. That’s the division that I worked with. For me, it’s about making sure that that good governance and city building looks at opportunities that are right in front of you, that you may have missed.

Maclean’s: Don Iveson and Nenshi came into office such good pals that when Nenshi ran in 2010, he borrowed his “politics in full sentences” slogan from Iveson. How well do you two know each other?

Sohi: You got elected in 2017, right?

Gondek: And I immediately called you and asked you for money. I was working on the Vivo (local recreation centre) file at the time. Vivo is our rec facility in north central Calgary. As soon as I got in, I phoned Amarjeet’s office and said: “I’ve got to meet with you, we need more money.” We met here at a Starbucks. And he goes: “You’re not going to get more money from us until you come up with the money at the local level. And I remember walking (away) and going: Gah! And then as soon as we found the money locally, you called me up and said, “Way to go, let’s, let’s get the funding going.”

My family has been following your story for a long time. My mom was always always excited when Amarjeet comes on TV when he was, you know, a councillor, when he was a minister. The community is incredibly proud of all the work you’ve done.

Maclean’s: Thinking about the two cities, the sports rivalry seems to have long stopped permeating that ingrained culture between Edmonton and Calgary. What do you want the two cities to do together?

Gondek: We both believe strongly in finding better solutions around affordable housing. We’ve both been excited about the rapid housing initiative that has flowed from the federal government. And I think both of us would be very interested to see if that style of funding could translate into child care as well. I would love to partner with my buddy in Edmonton to see if we can get that kind of a funding model flowing. And frankly, they’re closer to the provincial government. So I rely very heavily on my council counterparts in Edmonton to be able to tell me what the mood and the temperature is there, by virtue of (them) being in the same city.

Sohi: We can expand the Calgary-Edmonton partnership, to midsize Alberta municipalities to strengthen our relationship with provincial government. I am very cognizant of the fact that if City Hall alone is talking to the provincial government, we will not be as effective. Speaking in that collective voice reduces the partisanship of discussions. it becomes it becomes a community conversation with the provincial government.

Maclean’s: How did the relationship between the premier and the big city mayors deteriorate to the point where you talk about needing other partners to get through that door?

Gondek: I don’t know that anything happened specifically, I think there’s been so much of a focus from the provincial government on reviving the economy and doing it through, you know, the comeback of oil and gas. If that has been their focus, and that’s where they’re fixated, then Amarjeet and I need to make sure we are bringing in those local leaders from our cities, who can be with us to talk about how we go about accomplishing those things [we want].

Maclean’s: Do you think that the very troubled, to put it gently, handling of the pandemic made it difficult for leaders to have a strong relationship with Jason Kenney?

Gondek: Unfortunately, I think what happened to our provincial government is they were a little bit paralyzed by what will happen if we put in restrictions. They got themselves in that trap of polarity—of restrictions versus freedoms instead of looking at it as mitigation techniques. By lack of action, they perpetuated that. And I think that’s where they got stuck. And then it was too late. And I think it’s been very difficult for members of this government who believed in greater mitigation, greater risk management to speak up, because then it would have looked like they were fighting the ideology. So I think they got themselves stuck.

Sohi: A lot of people still don’t understand Alberta, how much we have changed. And that is true of some people in the government as well. Albertans don’t like super-partisanship, right? When I spoke with the premier [this week], it was a pretty constructive conversation: We talked about COVID. We talked about economic recovery. We talked about social issues, and why we need to work together to tackle them. We were not arguing with each other. We were kind of nodding with each other. But sometimes public posturing is different. If we are consistent in both conversations—have the same collegial public-facing conversations [as we do in private]—our political culture will change.

Maclean’s: You’ve suggested going to the feds directly on child care. Is dealing more with the federal government a situational workaround, given the current political atmosphere. Or is that a more permanent means to a city’s ends?

Gondek: In my opinion, it’s a more permanent solution. For too long, we have ignored the fact that cities are economic engines. It’s important for the federal government to have a ministry dedicated to urban affairs; frankly, I think that’s a big miss [that there isn’t one] . I think if everything always has to go from the feds, to the province down to municipalities, you’re creating this false sense of hierarchy.

Sohi: It is not certain politically striped provinces that are more reluctant to work with municipalities. Even progressive provinces sometimes don’t work well with the municipalities either, because of personality differences. So I think it is more complicated than just the current political situation that we’re facing. There has to be more permanent, constructive conversation between federal government, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and big-city mayors to foster that strong relationship.

Maclean’s: The economic challenges Alberta’s facing are just so immense, most notably the high downtown vacancy rates in Calgary. How limited do you feel sitting in the mayor’s chair in trying to address this challenge? The mayor, the city government, don’t have economic levers like other levels do.

Gondek: I guess you can choose to look at it as being limited, that we can’t do a lot of things on our own. But I think we have such an amazing opportunity to actually stand up and say: “This is our identity as a city. This is who we are. We are leaders in the transitioning economy, come and be here. We are using innovation and technology to find cleaner, greener, more sustainable solutions. Come and look at the fact that we have a centre for energy transition in a renovated downtown building. Just come and give us a chance.” One of the biggest things that Amarjeet and I do is speak to our federal counterparts to say: you need to come here and experience it to feel that it’s real, and then go with us to draw that capital to our city.

Maclean’s: Both of you ran against reform-minded fiscal hawks. And at a time when many people in your cities are struggling, costs keep rising, people defiantly rejected that option. Why is that?

Sohi: The people focusing on anger, they were trying to create fear. They were talking about “change election” in a very negative way. I think this was a change election, from my perspective in Edmonton, but change for the better. Not going back, but stepping further into into the kind of progressive, forward-thinking city that people want to build. They never turned inward because of anxiety.

Gondek: I think what happened in Calgary is people got tired of being told how to feel, and what to think. People were already tired from the pandemic, exhausted from all of the burdens they had to carry. And they wanted to hear from somebody that would help them lift that burden. They wanted someone to understand how they were feeling and give them a vision. That’s what I did.

Maclean’s: A lot of people will see you as the person who comes after Naheed Nenshi, nationally and probably locally. Is it daunting to fill his shoes?

Gondek: Mayor Nenshi came into office at a very different time than I’m coming into office. He and I have different styles and we have different challenges that we have to face. There’s so much foundational work to do. These four years are not going to be ribbon-cuttings and grand openings. They are going to be incredibly hard-working years. And, you know, we just need to demonstrate to the world that we are still as exciting a city as we were back then.

Maclean’s: Amarjeet, explain to me the ego roller coaster of losing your federal seat two years ago, then winning as mayor.

Sohi: In hindsight, I think losing the 2019 election—even though it was quite devastating—was the best thing. I was able to be with my family at a time when my family needed me the most, because my wife got sick during the 2019 election. Then, in October of last year, my brother passed away, the one who sponsored me to come to Canada.

I’ve been very open about the struggles that I faced and how vulnerable I felt during the pandemic. A lot of Edmontonians were also feeling vulnerable during this time. But they saw in me that quiet, determined hope, the resiliency that is necessary for people to have someone lead them through difficult times. The difficult times I had, struggling to make ends meet, and the time I spent in solitary confinement [as a political prisoner in India in the late 1980s]. I think gave people someone to look at, who had personal experience I have with adversity, but still kept hope.

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On Oct. 28 at 7 p.m. ET, Paul Wells will be speaking with Lisa Raitt and Anne McLellan, two formidable former politicians who have held senior posts in Liberal and Conservative governments. Now, only a month after a divisive federal election, they’re returning to Ottawa to co-host a national summit on a prosperous new future for Canada. Why are dozens of organizations meeting to discuss reducing inequality, fighting climate change and raising living standards? Do their plans stand a chance in today’s partisan, divided Ottawa? Fresh from their two-day Summit, Coalition for a Better Future co-chairs McLellan and Raitt will join Maclean’s senior writer Paul Wells to deliver a progress report.

Hosted at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa & broadcast live by CPAC, Maclean’s in Conversation is a recurring series featuring Paul Wells and prominent newsmakers. Past guests have included Justin Trudeau, Jean Chrétien, Jason Kenney, Margaret Macmillan, Katie Telford, Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh.

Event details

Date: Thurs., Oct. 28, 2021
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Guests: Lisa Raitt and Anne McLellan
Venue: National Arts Centre
1 Elgin Street
Ottawa, ON K1P 5W1

Register now to attend this live event. Or watch it live on CPAC.

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Statistics Canada said Wednesday that—driven mostly by higher gas prices—Canadian inflation rose 4.4 per cent in September from a year earlier, the Globe reports, higher than the Bank of Canada had projected.

It was the sixth consecutive month that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent. The acceleration was heavily influenced by gasoline prices, which jumped 33 per cent from a year ago. Excluding gas, CPI rose 3.5 per cent. Prices were higher in all eight major components, including hefty gains in shelter (4.8 per cent) and food (3.9 per cent).

The Bank of Canada has long maintained that hotter inflation is a transitory phenomenon, owing to such factors as supply-chain disruptions and comparisons to tepid prices a year ago. However, BoC governor Tiff Macklem recently acknowledged that high inflation could be “a little more persistent” than previously thought, in part because supply congestion isn’t fading away. In July, the central bank projected that annual inflation would average 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter. That call is looking “light,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients, with CPI likely to remain above 4 per cent in the coming months. BMO expects inflation to average 3.3 per cent this year and in 2022. “Suffice it to say, that strains the definition of transitory,” Mr. Porter said.

Hard to know: Writing in the Globe, Ian McGugan says that the inflation numbers may be scary, but it’s hard to know whether inflation will continue or not, because experts aren’t very good at predicting it.

Renaissance prediction: In the Star, Armine Yalnizyan outlines the economic downsides that might lie ahead as the feds remove pandemic supports, but overall she is expecting good economic news.

CPC objects: The CPC—which won’t confirm how many of its MPs remain unvaccinated—are against a mandatory vaccination policy announced by the House of Commons, CTV reports. On Tuesday the Board of Internal Economy—a cross-party committee of nine MPs—said anyone entering the House of Commons precinct must be fully vaccinated by Nov. 22, when MPs return.

The Conservatives say that they don’t think it should be up to a committee of MPs to decide who can and cannot enter spaces on Parliament Hill, though the committee has historically overseen the workings of the House of Commons. “While we encourage everyone who can be vaccinated to get vaccinated, we cannot agree to seven MPs, meeting in secret, deciding which of the 338 MPs, just elected by Canadians, can enter the House of Commons to represent their constituents,” said Conservative whip Blake Richards in a statement. Richards is one of the two Conservative members on the board, which held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday. While what happens in-camera at parliamentary committee meetings is not meant to be discussed publicly, Richard’s statement suggests that the decision was most likely approved by the Liberals, New Democrats, and Bloc Quebecois, whose caucuses are all fully vaccinated.

Tail wagging dog: In the Post, John Ivison writes that the Conservatives should register their objection to the way this was done, by a committee.

The tail is wagging the dog. Even if the Speaker recognizes a prima facie question of privilege in the House, the Liberals, Bloc Québécois and NDP have made it clear they will support mandatory vaccination in any vote and the Board’s decision will stand.

Political offence: In the Star, Susan Delacourt writes that the Conservatives are putting personal privilege ahead of their duty to Canadians.

All legal technicalities aside, though, the idea of any Conservative MPs standing against vaccinations — whether it’s a few or a couple of dozen — should be a political offence at least. Not so long ago, this was the party arguing in the House that the Liberal government wasn’t doing enough to make sure that everyone in the country had access to vaccinations against COVID-19.

Who is Trudeau talking to? Indigenous advocates don’t know who Justin Trudeau is talking about when he says Ottawa is doing consultations over compensation First Nations children, CP reports.

In Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc this week, Trudeau said he is consulting “with Indigenous partners and leaders” on a recent Federal Court decision on compensation for First Nations children. Advocate Cindy Blackstock and Congress of Aboriginal Peoples National Chief Elmer St. Pierre both said any consultations are a mystery to them.

PPC cost CPC: In the Writ, Eric Grenier has an interesting deep dive into the rise of the PPC in the recent election. It likely cost the Tories seats, he says, but not that many.

In only seven seats was 50% of the PPC vote still greater than the Conservatives’ margin of defeat. At the 25% mark, we’re only talking about three seats. Those three seats were Trois-Rivières in Quebec (because the Conservatives were so close, not because the PPC was so high) and Sault Ste. Marie and Kitchener–Conestoga in Ontario. At the 50% mark, the extra four seats are Edmonton Centre, Nanaimo–Ladysmith, Kitchener South–Hespeler and Niagara Centre. Beyond these seven, an increasingly implausible share of the PPC vote needs to go to the Conservatives to win them the seat. Yes, the PPC probably cost the Conservatives a few seats. Maybe even a dozen if we’re being very generous.

Pop tax: Newfoundland and Labrador is bringing in a tax on sugary drinks, the first in Canada, City News reports. (Here is Nathan Sing’s report in Maclean’s on the sugar tax from August.)

Doctor cries: Saskatchewan’s chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab broke down in tears as he presented COVID modelling on Wednesday, the Star Phoenix reports.

Time bomb? In the Globe, Konrad Yakabuski has a look at the redistribution of seats that Justin Trudeau ought to be bringing in to keep up with shifting demographics, and concludes that he likely won’t take a seat away from Quebec for political reasons.

Less access: In the Vancouver Sun, Vaughan Palmer has a righteous column taking John Horgan to task for increasing access-to-information fees and weakening the system in other ways.

— Stephen Maher

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Albertans voted on Monday in a province-wide plebiscite calling for the equalization system (an area of federal jurisdiction) to be removed from the constitution, and while the results won’t be known for another week, it looks like it passed. Advocates say this should lead to reform in the program, the Post reports.

Kevin Lacey, the Alberta director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, described the referendum as one of the “biggest and most significant constitutional referendums” since the Charlottetown Accord’s failure in 1992. “Albertans delivered a clear message that while they’re willing to contribute to Canada, they won’t be taken advantage of anymore and the results show that Albertans want to stand up and they want to see change,” Lacey told the National Post.

Just a baby step: Political scientist Barry Cooper tells the Hill Times the next step ought to be a referendum on independence.

Not a big deal: Other political scientists, though, say the vote carries no legal weight and won’t force Ottawa to do anything.

“A change in the Constitution requires something close to total consensus right across Canada,” said Eric Adams, a professor at the University of Alberta specializing in constitutional law. “I don’t think it’s a surprise to anybody that Alberta is nowhere near reaching that consensus on equalization, and I don’t think that’s going to change.”

Waters muddied: In the Globe, Andrew Coyne argues amusingly that the rest of Canada should ignore the vote.

Moreover, the results in Alberta are anything but “clear.” Not only is the majority unlikely to much exceed 50 per cent, but the meaning of the vote was greatly muddied by the Premier, Jason Kenney, who insisted it was not about the question on the ballot – the one that he put there – but rather about giving Alberta “leverage” to demand changes to the program.

Again, this would be sufficient for the rest of Canada to ignore the result. A referendum on an explicit demand for a specific constitutional change is one thing, but a referendum that has been publicly and repeatedly described by its sponsors as a giant bluff practically begs to be disregarded.

Focus on seats: In the Calgary Herald, Rob Breakenridge argues persuasively that adding three seats to the House of Commons for chronically underrepresented Alberta will do more than the referendum to give Alberta clout in Ottawa.

New mayors: Edmonton and Calgary also elected new mayors, both of whom are of first-generation Canadians with Punjabi heritage.

Vaccine mandate on Hill: MPs will have to be vaccinated to enter the parliamentary precinct, the board of internal economy has decided, CTV reports. Will some Conservatives object? There is reason to wonder. The Western Standard likens the unjabbed to Soviet spies.

Green job cuts: The Green Party is laying off staff as the party brass look to shave costs, CP reports. Also, Annamie Paul is still the leader, apparently.

Paul, who announced last month she would resign, remains in the top spot as she negotiates with Green executives about compensation for costs incurred during legal battles with the party, sources say.

N.B. ousts Mountie: The Blaine Higgs government has pushed out the top New Brunswick Mountie, Assistant Commissioner Larry Tremblay, Jacques Poitras reports for CBC. Public Safety Minister Ted Flemming wrote to Commissioner Brenda Lucki in July asking the for the change, and for the force to make drug crime a higher priority.

How they lost: Defeated CPC MP James Cumming is set to examine how Tories lost votes to both the PPC and NDP as part of his review of the recent election for the party, CP reports. “Anywhere that we’ve had bleed of vote, I think that that’s important that we study and understand what the factors were, so the PPC would represent some of that. In Alberta we saw significant bleed of vote to the NDP, so that’s an entirely different situation … in all cases we have to look at where we performed and where we didn’t perform and do that analysis on a riding-by-riding basis, region-by-region basis to better understand what the dynamics are within that vote.”

— Stephen Maher

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Chief Rosanne Casimir reprimanded Justin Trudeau at Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation on Monday, the Globe reports, for missing a ceremony to commemorate the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation: “Today is bittersweet. When we imagined welcoming Prime Minister Trudeau to our community, it was envisioned that it would be an opportunity for him to interact with a wide array of survivors, intergenerational survivors, and many different First Nations as part of Sept. 30, the first National Day of Truth and Reconciliation.”

Mr. Trudeau’s visit on Monday to Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation is taking place after he faced considerable political backlash for not appearing publicly on the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation and for instead travelling to Tofino. The Prime Minister said Monday that he has many regrets about travelling on that day. He said he took an opportunity to apologize to Ms. Casimir in person for not having been in the community on Sept. 30.

There are witnesses: The woman behind a misconduct allegation against Adm. Art McDonald has told Global News that “several” eyewitnesses corroborated her story, including at least one senior officer that Global verified. Lt. Heather Macdonald told Mercedes Stephenson she was disappointed that Adm. McDonald sent a letter to senior military officers on Thursday claiming he was exonerated.

Not exonerated: Global has a followup story quoting the Canadian Forces Provost Marshal, rebutting McDonald’s repeated public claims that he has been exonerated.

“As stated in August 2021, the CFNIS investigation into an allegation of sexual misconduct against Admiral McDonald resulted in no charges being laid based on insufficient evidence,” reads the statement. “This does not mean that the allegation was unfounded, which is defined by Statistics Canada as ‘After a police investigation it is concluded that no violation of the law took place nor was attempted’.”

Time to act: Experts tell the Star that it is time for Trudeau to do something about this mess.

“McDonald has no leg to stand on. His job is at pleasure, and he has created displeasure,” said Stephen Saideman, Paterson chair in international affairs at Carleton University, who researches civilian control of the military in democracies. “For cohesion in the military, the government should make a statement and end this. They have the power to do so … Civilian control of the military stops at (Trudeau’s) desk.”

School head out: Former commandant of the Canadian Forces School of Military Intelligence is continuing to serve in the military after being relieved of his command following an investigation into allegations of inappropriate conduct, CBC reports. In April, the Canadian Forces removed Lt.-Col. Raphael Guay from his duties. CBC News has now confirmed that the military decided months ago that Guay would not return to his command post.

Kill CEWS: Economist Miles Corak, a former social policy adviser to the federal government, says Chrystia Freeland should not bend to business pressure to maintain the federal wage subsidy, the Globe reports.

At an estimated total cost of $111-billion, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) has been the largest single element of Ottawa’s $286-billion in direct support measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsidy provides money directly to businesses whose income has suffered during the pandemic, to cover portions of their employees’ wages. The program has been adjusted and extended several times. The latest extension, approved just before the federal election campaign, moved the subsidy’s expiry date to Oct. 23.

Corak told the Globe that CEWS is wasteful: “The biggest failing of the program was its inability to target funds where they were most needed. Many, many firms received a great deal of monies that weren’t necessary. It supported firms that weren’t going to shut down and it prevented the shutdown of many firms that would have shut down anyways.”

Fewer sitting days: Opposition MPs say the Liberals are trying to avoid scrutiny by limiting House of Commons sitting days this year and delaying the return of Parliament, the Globe reports.

Moe sought U.S. help: Saskatchewan scoured North America looking for health-care workers before asking Ottawa for help, the Leader-Post reports.

The province formally asked Ottawa for ICU staff on Monday, weeks after the federal health minister first offered it, and only after calls for help through emergency networks went unanswered — including requests to more than a dozen American states. “The decision was made this morning to ask the federal government (for help) because we were unable to get it from our emergency measures partners throughout North America,” Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency President Marlo Pritchard said.

Social watchdog: The NDP wants Ottawa to establish an independent social media watchdog after revelations by Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen, CP reports. “Ms. Haugen reveals that Facebook knew that its algorithms are driving hate content and leading to breakdown in civic engagement,” said Charlie Angus. “Facebook made the decision to incentivize profits through its use of its algorithms over the well-being of its users.”

Senator leaves ISG: Senator Marilou McPhedran has resigned from the largest group in the Senate before a closed-door hearing was scheduled to decide whether to expel her. The Hill Times has a story.

Ford working on his French: Doug Ford said Monday he stopped taking French lessons during the pandemic but has promised to get back at it, CTV reports. Ford said Caroline Mulroney helps him: “She’s a great French teacher and always gives me the phrases, so I’ll get there.”

— Stephen Maher

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Albertans will cast ballots today in a referendum to reject equalization, CP reports.

Jason Kenney says the referendum will give Alberta a bargaining chip to demand changes to the federal program: “The point of it is to get leverage for constitutional negotiations with the federal government about reform of the entire system of fiscal federalism, which treats Alberta so unfairly.”

Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews estimated the provincial contribution at $20 billion a year in a public letter this week. It was signposted by the phrases “more unfair,” “clearly unfair,” “fundamentally unfair,” “lack of fairness” and “fight for fairness.”

Political scientist Jared Wesley, the lead on a recent University of Alberta survey on referendum voting intentions, said the poll suggested the Yes side remains in the lead. But he said a disturbingly high percentage doesn’t understand how equalization works (44 per cent), wrongly believes Quebec gets the most per capita (85 per cent), and fails to understand Ottawa does not need provincial buy-in to change the equalization formula (62 per cent).

“I don’t blame Albertans for being confused,” said Wesley. “They’ve been fed a lot of misinformation by governments in this province for a lot of decades, and that’s showing up in our research.”

Some Yes supporters worry that with Kenney’s low popularity numbers will boost the No vote.

Your correspondent wrote a defence of the system in Maclean’s in 2019.

Ford in good shape: Polling expert Philippe J. Fournier, writing in Maclean’s, has a look at the upcoming Ontario election, and finds the signs look good for Doug Ford.

The Ontario PCs should thus still be considered the favourites at this point in time, especially with a double-digit lead in the seat-rich GTA-905 region (41 per cent to 29 per cent for the OLP, according to Léger). However, as we will see below, these numbers suggest the PCs would need several close splits going their way in order to keep their majority at Queen’s Park. If the Ontario Liberals do climb back to the low-30s in popular support, the most likely outcome would be the PC winning a plurality, but not a majority of seats at the Ontario Legislature.

Clark goes after citizens: Ontario Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Clark used a controversial new election advertising law to try to silence at least three grassroots organizations, including two in his riding, the Star reports.

Clark filed a complaint with Elections Ontario last month, targeting two small community organizations in Kemptville, alleging they were “conducting unregistered third party political advertising” by sending out mailers and putting up lawn signs to oppose a proposed prison. Colleen Lynas, head of a non-partisan group made up of mostly retirees, said she was “stunned” when she was informed by Elections Ontario that Clark filed a complaint alleging they were “breaking the law.” Elections Ontario rejected the complaint but the complaint has critics worrying, in part because the law Clark tried to use is Charter-proof.

This summer, the Doug Ford government faced criticism when it forced through legislation invoking the rarely used Charter of Rights and Freedoms “notwithstanding clause” to enact spending limits on third-party advertising, capping it at $600,000 up to 12 months before an election. Any organization spending more than $500 on political advertising must now also register as a third party.

Who defends the Constitution? Also in the Star, Chantal Hebert considers challenges to the Constitution in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta, and finds a lack of leadership at the federal level ready to speak up for the constitutional order.

At the same time, under their current governments, Ontario and Quebec have over the recent past both taken to sheltering pieces of legislation — dealing with minority language and religious rights and third-party election spending — from the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and the reach of the courts. A recourse that was long considered exceptional is in the process of being normalized. Even as he knows he has close to zero chance to secure the support required to remove the principle of equalization from the Constitution. Kenney still seeks to galvanize his voters against it for his own leverage purposes.

Passport promised: Bill Blair told Global he’s “very confident” that Canadians will have a national vaccine passport by the time the U.S. border reopens for non-essential travel on Nov. 8. Blair said he always tries to “overperform and under-promise,” but said work on the project is going “very, very well.”

Programs in the balance: Chrystia Freeland told CBC that the government is pondering the fate of federal pandemic supports for individuals and businesses, some of which are set to come to an end this week: “We have to remember that all of us collectively in the whole world have been really bad at predicting exactly the course that the coronavirus would take.”

New faces: CBC has a good roundup of some of the rookie MPs elected Sept. 20.

Almost an MP: CBC has an interesting story about Bloc candidate Patrick O’Hara, who lost a narrow election after a recount, an experience he found devastating: “Anybody that sits here and tells you that they take a loss and they’re positive about it, I would call them out that they’re flat lying.”

CBC’s Aaron Wherry has a column wondering if the Liberals and NDP might be wise to co-operate as Liberals and NDPers did in 1985 when Bob Rae sought to avoid the “day-to-day blackmail bullshit.” It doesn’t sound like it will happen though.

For now, this all seems to be entirely hypothetical. The Prime Minister’s Office said Friday that Trudeau will speak with the other party leaders next week, but an NDP source says they haven’t yet heard from the government about any plans for how Parliament will work. The same source says the party thinks the last Parliament worked well without a formal accord.

Flags up: In the Globe, Andrew Potter makes a good argument for raising the national flag again.

Ministry of Public Anger: In the Star, Susan Delacourt has a column about nasty election protests, and the government’s plan to take on hate speech.

(Steven) Guilbeault says the protests were ample proof of the need to get more accountability out of the tech giants and to rein in hate speech on the internet, which Trudeau’s team has already tagged as big priorities for its first months in office. Whether it’s Guilbeault or someone else in charge of these files, they will be at the top of the to-do list for the minister of heritage.

Shemozzle warning: In the Post, Chris Selley has a column warning that the Liberals’ plan to clamp down on hate speech will have undesirable consequences.

There is no question that the Liberals’ imagined regime would lead to absurd outcomes, many of which would dismay Liberals. The party caught a glimpse of its potential future during the campaign, when Twitter flagged a video posted on Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s account as “manipulated media.” Partisans were aghast: “Not us, you lunatics, the other guys!” If the Liberals create an actual legal obligation for Twitter or Facebook to police its content along those lines, you can be 100-per-cent certain their opponents will be flagging every unkind thing they see, and their partisans would be doing the same in return, and a famous shemozzle would ensue.

Very old: An ancient Indigenous knife unearthed during the renovation of Centre Block will be returned to the stewardship of the Algonquin people who live in the Ottawa region, CP reports.

The knife, shaped from Onondaga chert quarried in Ontario or New York state thousands of years ago, is not the first Indigenous artifact found in the parliamentary precinct. Shards of pottery and a shell bead were found on Parliament Hill in the 1990s.

— Stephen Maher

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We may still be eight months away from the 2022 Ontario general election, but it sure feels like the pre-campaign has already begun. Shortly after Lt.-Gov. Elizabeth Dowdeswell delivered Premier Doug Ford’s latest throne speech in early October, the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives (PCs) embarked on an advertising blitz trying to define themselves and their opponents with next spring’s election in mind. And, according to a new Léger poll published by Postmedia earlier this week, the race for power at Queen’s Park could potentially come down to merely a handful of points for or against each party.

According to Léger, Doug Ford’s PC Party remains in the lead with 35 per cent of voting intentions province-wide, a notable but modest 5-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP). Andrew Horwath’s NDP takes third place with 25 per cent. These numbers are dramatically different from the outcome of the 2018 election, when the PCs secured a majority with close to 41 per cent of the popular vote. The NDP had gotten just under 34 per cent, and the Liberals, who had been in power for the previous 15 years, collapsed to just under 20 per cent.

The Ontario PCs should thus still be considered the favourites at this point in time, especially with a double-digit lead in the seat-rich GTA-905 region (41 per cent to 29 per cent for the OLP, according to Léger). However, as we will see below, these numbers suggest the PCs would need several close splits going their way in order to keep their majority at Queen’s Park. If the Ontario Liberals do climb back to the low-30s in popular support, the most likely outcome would be the PC winning a plurality, but not a majority of seats at the Ontario Legislature.

However, the OLP getting back into contention remains a big “if”. While the Liberals stand in second place in voting intentions, leader Steven Del Duca still has the lowest profile of the main party leaders. In fact, Léger’s poll measures that fewer Ontario voters hold positive impressions of Del Duca (25 per cent) compared to Premier Ford (38 per cent) and Opposition leader Andrea Horwath (37 per cent).

However, Del Duca’s lower notoriety also means he is not perceived as polarizing a figure as Ford, of whom 54 per cent of voters hold negative impression. NDP leader Andrew Horwath also has a high level of negative impressions with 41 per cent. According to the latest Léger numbers, only 32 per cent of Ontario voters view Del Duca negatively. (In fact, all Ontario party leaders, including Green Party of Ontario leader Mike Schreiner, score negative net impressions among voters).

As mentioned above, had the Ontario election been held this week, the most likely scenario would have been Doug Ford’s PC winning the most seats, but falling short of a majority. According to the 338Canada Ontario model, the PC win an average of 53 seats, 10 seats below the 63-seat majority threshold. The Ontario Liberals stand at 45 seats on average, and the Ontario NDP falls to 25 seats.

As you may see on the chart below, the seat distributions for the OLP and PC are highly asymmetrical. The PC holds the highest floor of all parties and are currently the only party whose confidence interval extends into majority territory. In contrast, the OLP’s ceiling extends to just below the 60-seat mark, while its seat floor goes as low as the low-20s. Such wide and uneven distributions occur when there are a high number of close three-way races, which tend to be far more unpredictable.

It is no secret that Doug Ford has benefitted from a split of the centre and centre-left vote back in 2018, and the newer numbers from Léger indicate that an almost even division of non-PC vote remains the most likely path to re-election for Ford. While Andrea Horwath still enjoys higher support than traditional NDP levels in Ontario, she has not yet been able to portray herself and her party as the most suitable replacement for Ford according to the available polling data. While Del Duca is still unknown to many Ontario voters, which in itself poses a major challenge for the OLP, this data suggest he has the most room to grow among opposition party leaders.

Additionally, Andrea Horwath could face major hurdles getting her party’s vote out come election time, a challenge similar as the federal NDP in last month’s federal election. As was the case with Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, Léger measures Ontario NDP support highest among voters aged 19-34 years old (34 per cent) and lowest among voters 55+ years old (22 per cent). Let us recall that many pollsters had the federal NDP at or above the 20 per cent mark down the stretch, but the party only captured 17.8 per cent of the popular vote. Such is the unpleasant tendency for political parties that enjoy high popularity with younger demographics.

With eight months to go, these early projections do not have predictive value, but allow us to imagine several interesting what-if scenarios, not least of which would be: Could Doug Ford remain Premier if the PC wins the most seats, but fails to keep its majority? Could the possibility of ousting Ford be enough to cool the obvious animosity between the OLP and NDP? Will one these parties manage to coalesce the anti-Ford vote?

We will follow these numbers closely over the coming months.

* * *

Details of this projection are available on the 338Canada Ontario page. To find your home district, use this list of all 124 provincial districts, or use the regional links below:

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The Fifth Estate released an investigation Thursday that shed new light on the Trudeau government’s failed collaboration with a vaccine manufacturing company in China, CanSino, that led to a two-year delay in creating a made-in-Canada COVID-19 vaccine.

Government documents “show that Canadian officials wasted months waiting for a proposed vaccine to arrive from China for further testing and spent millions upgrading a production facility that never made a single dose of COVID-19 vaccine.”

The reporting shows that Canada’s plan appears to have been stymied by Chinese political interference related to the Meng Wanzhou case.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the deal to Canadians on May 16, 2020. But a federal government memo later that same month reveals the Canadian Embassy in Beijing was still working to get the vaccine cleared by China’s customs. “CanSino vaccines are still with customs in China,” the memo said. “Embassy has a [meeting] tomorrow. Assuming they get through customs [tomorrow], they can be put on a flight on the 27th.” But the vaccine candidate was not put on a plane on May 27. That same day, Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou — a high-profile tech executive in China — lost an appeal to the B.C. Supreme Court arguing against her arrest in Canada. Meng had been detained in Vancouver in 2018 on U.S. bank fraud charges.

Planning continued until August while the Trudeau government kept the difficulties secret. It has never explained what happened and did not help Fifth Estate with its report.

The Prime Minister’s Office did not answer when asked to explain the discrepancy between the promised production numbers and what happened. The prime minister and his ministers also declined interview requests about Canada’s early vaccine production plans, including with the NRC and CanSino. The NRC has said the U.S.-based vaccine developer Novavax will be its new partner for this facility, but Health Canada has not approved its vaccine yet.

The CanSino project was not the only partnership that the NRC was pursuing at the time, Justin Ling reported in Maclean’s earlier this year.

Oct. 25, 26: Trudeau will unveil his new post-election cabinet on Oct. 25 or 26, secret sources told CBC News on Thursday.

Trudeau’s commitment to a gender-balanced cabinet, coupled with his need for new cabinet ministers from Nova Scotia and Alberta, will likely require significant changes to the government’s front bench. The biggest change could come in the defence ministry. Many senior Liberals suggest that Harjit Sajjan will be shuffled to a new portfolio.

Expect gender balance: The Star’s Tonda MacCharles has some knowledgable-sounding speculation about who might end up in Trudeau’s gender-balanced cabinet.

To fill the gender gaps, insiders say Toronto’s Marci Ien, who was re-elected in Toronto Centre after her 2020 byelection entry to Parliament, is expected to be at the top of the list, along with women who have experience in provincial governments. Those could include Lina Metlege Diab, a former provincial cabinet minister from Nova Scotia who is bilingual and a likely replacement for Bernadette Jordan, the fisheries minister who lost her seat; Ottawa-area MP Marie France Lalonde, who held three posts in Ontario as minister for francophone affairs, community safety and correctional services, and government and consumer services; and Markham-Stouffville MP Helena Jaczek, who served as Ontario’s minister of health and long-term care and as minister of community and social services. The latter two were first elected federally in 2019, and have held parliamentary secretary or committee roles and could be up for promotion. Other rookie names floated include Quebec’s Pascale St-Onge who headed a communications union. Trudeau may also take advantage of the opportunity to now do what he wasn’t keen to do before the election: demote cabinet underperformers like Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan or Health Minister Patty Hajdu.

Why so long? At CTV, Don Martin wonders why it is taking so long for Trudeau to get his ducks in a row.

The gap between the election and the cabinet naming in 2015, when Trudeau inherited a caucus of largely untested talent in the aftermath of a shocker majority win, was 17 days. True, it took Trudeau a month to move the boxes for the 2019 lineup, but this year will be the longest yet.

PCR rules stand for now: Chrystia Freeland had no news on plans to scrap PCR test requirement as U.S. border nears reopening, Global reported Thursday. “The rules are the rules,” she said in DC. “Canadians do need a valid PCR test to go back to Canada. I had my test done to go home this afternoon. I really believe that when it comes to finishing the fight against COVID, the Canadian approach, which has been to follow science, to follow the recommendations of public health authorities, and to err on the side of caution has served us really, really well.”

Chen suspended: The national council of the Conservative Party suspended councillor Bert Chen for two months for launching a petition to dump Erin O’Toole, the Hill Times reported Thursday.

“Following complaints by grassroots members of the Conservative Party of Canada about the conduct of national councillor Bert Chen, national council exercised its authority under Article 8.13 of the party’s constitution to suspend Mr. Chen from national council for up to 60 days,” said Conservative Party president Robert Batherson in an emailed statement to The Hill Times. Mr. Chen’s petition, launched a day after the election, had received 5,185 signatures by Oct. 13.

Prairie disaster: In the Globe, Gary Mason angrily points out that Alberta and Saskatchewan have failed to bring the pandemic under control, which is taking a terrible toll.

Mr. Kenney has been under intense criticism for a few months now over his decision-making around the crisis. There have been growing calls for a leadership review within his party. His popularity rating sits at a dismal 22 per cent – the lowest of any provincial leader in the country. The Premier has had to put out a call to the military to help with overburdened hospitals. Patients have been airlifted to hospitals in other provinces. Saskatchewan is in even worse shape. On Thanksgiving Monday, the province’s normal complement of critical care beds were taken up with COVID-19 patients. In the three months since the province reopened, case numbers have shot up 47 per cent. The COVID-19 death rate is 6.62 per 100,000 people – the worst in the country. (Alberta has come in second, at 4.7 per 100,000; Ontario’s rate, by contrast, is 0.67.)

— Stephen Maher

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Quebec delays mandate: Quebec’s health minister, Christian Dubé, announced Wednesday that the province will delay by a month its plan to suspend without pay health-care workers who refuse to get jabbed, CBC reports. Dubé is afraid of labour shortages: “The risk right now is too high, and it would be irresponsible to roll the dice with the health of Quebecers.”

Victory for anti-vaxxers: In La Presse, Patrick Lagacé writes (translation) that Dubé made an empty threat, like a parent threatening to take away a PlayStation from a child. His miscalculation gave a victory to the anti-vaxxers.

These people only have a nuisance power … by filling intensive care units and putting vulnerable patients at risk. And Wednesday, in the fiction of the fight against the “dictatorship” that they play in their heads and in the parallel dimension where they are freedom fighters, they won a round, they sincerely think that they have just landed in Normandy. This “victory,” which will galvanize them, which will consolidate them, it is Quebec which stupidly gave it to them. Minister Dubé invited the employees to the alley … and when the anti-vaxxers went to wait for him in the alley, Mr. Dubé continued to sip his beer at the bar. Never make threats that you cannot carry out.

Lifting restrictions: Doug Ford will announce a plan to lift some public health restrictions next week, a secret source tells CBC News. The plan will end capacity limits in locations where proof-of-vaccination requirements are in place: restaurants, bars and gyms.

Travel plans? Fully vaccinated Canadians will soon be able to flit across the southern border, and many of them are delighted, CP reports. “I’m so excited that I can barely wait,” said Betty Chaborek, of Windsor, who turned 77 on Wednesday. “I was ready to go today.”Mixed blessing: It is not yet clear whether the 3.9 million Canadians who have mixed-dose vaccinations will be able to cross, the Globe reports.

CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordlund Wednesday could not immediately answer whether the U.S. public health agency would accept mixed-dose travellers as fully vaccinated. “When I have an update on this, I’ll let you know,” she said.

Plan carefully: Global has some advice for would-be travellers: be careful. Avoid places where there is a lot of COVID-19, and go where the jabbed are.

Another helpful indicator is a country’s vaccination rates, according to Dr. Anna Banerji, a Toronto physician and an expert on the spread of infectious diseases. It’s a good idea “to be selective in where you go” and to try to go “to places where there are high rates of vaccination,” she said.

Another officer investigated: Lt.-Gen. Trevor Cadieu, who was to take command of the Canadian Army, is now under police investigation after misconduct allegations were raised, David Pugliese of the Citizen reported Wednesday.

The Canadian Forces National Investigation Service has taken a statement from one former military member, a woman, about the allegations against Cadieu and other statements are in the process of being collected. It is unclear when the investigation will be finished. “The allegations are false, but they must be investigated thoroughly to expose the truth,” Cadieu told [the Citizen]. “I believe that all complaints should be investigated professionally, regardless of the rank of the accused. ”

Cadieu will not be taking the job as planned.

Cadieu was recently promoted to lieutenant general and slated to take over command of the army. A change of command ceremony that was to have taken place in early September was cancelled at the last minute, shortly after Acting Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre was informed about the CFNIS investigation.

“I know that these false claims will, as intended, create doubts about my ability to lead in this environment,” Cadieu told this newspaper. “While I have devoted every day of my career to making fellow members feel respected and included, Canadian Army soldiers deserve a leader who is unencumbered by allegations and can lead at this important time when culture change, addressing systemic misconduct and preparing tactical teams for operations must remain the priority effort.”

Cooper in Cowessess: CNN’s Anderson Cooper visited Cowessess First Nation in Saskatchewan over the long weekend to film a segment on unmarked graves discovered there in June, CBC reports.

Unpopular: Most premiers are becoming less popular, the Angus Reid Institute reports. Only Ford and Tim Houston are holding their own. Jason Kenney has the support of just one in five Albertans.

O’Toole too tough on China? A group representing Conservatives of Chinese descent wants Erin O’Toole to resign, charging that his call for a tougher approach to China alienated Chinese-Canadian voters, the Post reports.

At a surprising news conference for local press recently, spokesman Joe Li — a regional councillor north of Toronto and three-time former Tory candidate—said the two Michaels were detained after “Canada started the war,” that China had a right to fly its planes into Taiwan’s air-defence zone and Canada should not publicly criticize Beijing’s human-rights abuses. Such views echo stances taken by the Chinese government itself on key issues.

UBI knocked: Tasha Kheiriddin, writing in the Post, writes that problems with CERB have undermined the argument for a Universal Basic Income:

If anything, CERB and CRB were a perfect test case about why a UBI is an idea whose time has not come. Apart from the price tag of a universal income, which the Parliamentary Budget Officer pegged at $85 billion in 2021–22, rising to $93 billion in 2025–26, starting one now would hamper economic growth at the very time when that growth is sorely needed. UBI supporters may retort that employers should simply pay workers more, but without growth, it’s hard to see where those bigger paycheques will magically come from.

Fiscal challenge for Frida: In the Globe, Konrad Yakabuski argues that Chrystia Freeland, codename Frida, will face a big political challenge facing “a wrenching post-COVID fiscal moment of truth as the income supports that have kept millions of individuals and businesses afloat for the past 18 months are wound down.”

Climate priority: Adam Radwanski has an admirably wonky column in the Globe with advice for how Trudeau can “reconfigure his government, through structural or personnel changes, to make the transition to a clean economy the overarching priority he presented it as on the campaign trail.”

Queerest cabinet? Dale Smith has an interesting column in Xtra full of juicy LGBTQ2S+ cabinet speculation.

ICYMI: William Shatner went to space!

— Stephen Maher

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The Buffalo News reported Tuesday night that the U.S. side of the Canadian border will open to vaccinated Canadians starting in early November.

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer announced the coming reopening.

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, members of our shared cross-border community have felt the pain and economic hardship of the land border closures,” said Schumer, a New York Democrat. “That pain is about to end. Very soon, the link between New York and our northern neighbors will finally be re-established, reuniting families, bolstering businesses and ending a frustrating cycle of waiting for everyone involved.”

Rep. Brian Higgins, a Buffalo Democrat, said he received word of the pending reopening from Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator.

“It was a long time coming,” said Higgins, who had relentlessly advocated the reopening for months. “It should have happened six months ago.”

Lobbying from politicians on both sides of the border was getting increasingly intense. There is still uncertainty about whether the opening will apply to those with mixed doses.

Mulcair: Freeland is positioning herself: After Sunday’s interesting story about Chrystia Freeland’s youthful adventures dodging the KGB in Ukraine, Tom Mulcair has a provocative column at CTV, suggesting it is a sign that she is positioning herself to take over from Justin Trudeau.

Much like Michael Ignatieff, Chrystia Freeland became almost famous south of the border with her writings and media savvy. Unlike Ignatieff, she’s actually got some experience in government having ably run key ministries and, most admirably, outfoxed Donald Trump during the renegotiation of NAFTA. If she succeeds, she’ll be taking over from one of the world’s major media figures, Justin Trudeau. A little bit of profile doesn’t hurt.

Mulcair thinks, though, there will be other contenders for Trudeau’s job.

The most obvious one is the genial and exceptionally accomplished Mark Carney. Earlier this year at an event at l’Université de Montréal, where I teach, he was brilliant, generous with his time, and able to do the entire gig in French. I was impressed that he’d somehow managed to keep up his knowledge of the language of Molière during his lengthy stint in London as Governor of the Bank of England. This guy’s got game. Carney recently published a work on values (very progressive) and is a world leader on the issue of climate change and economic transition. He is currently working at the highest level of the United Nations, deepening his contacts and developing experience and expertise in areas outside of central banking. This promises to be one heck of a battle.

Wernick’s thoughts: Paul Wells had an interesting conversation with former top bureaucrat Michael Wernick, who has written a book, Governing Canada: A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics, which sounds like it is full of interesting insight, even if he never spills the tea on a certain secret recording.

The resulting book is nearly devoid of juicy insider gossip—never Wernick’s style—but full of pithy advice to political leaders in general. “If you can end a meeting early and gain a sliver of time,” he tells prospective prime ministers, “get up and leave.” And, elsewhere, “It is rarely to your advantage to meet the premiers as a group.” And, ahem, “The longer you are in office, the more courtiers you will attract.”

There’s lots of stuff that politics nerds will like:

One of the recurring themes in Wernick’s book is how little time everyone has. A federal cabinet will have 100 hours in a year for all of its plenary discussions. Maybe 120. It’s never enough. “It’s overbooked from day one until the day they leave. And you’re always making choices: to do one thing means not doing something else. And mindful management of the allocation of time is really important. It can get away on you.”

Pandemic privilege: Conservative MP Mark Strahl told the Star on Tuesday that he opposes any vaccination requirement for MPs. He argues a vaccination mandate on the Hill would violate parliamentary privilege: “I know it’s kind of quaint — archaic, maybe — to talk about parliamentary privilege during a pandemic, but it’s been upheld through many crises … We’d better be very, very careful that we don’t cavalierly toss it aside.”

Fortin loses: A judge has struck down Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin’s request for reinstatement as the head of Canada’s COVID-19 vaccine distribution campaign, CP reports. Fortin should have filed a formal complaint through the military’s grievance system before resorting to the courts, the judge ruled.

Fortin was removed as head of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout effort in May, five days before military police announced they had referred an investigation of alleged sexual misconduct to Quebec’s prosecution service. The senior military officer, who previously served in Afghanistan and commanded a NATO training mission in Iraq before being assigned last November to lead the federal government’s vaccine rollout effort, was formally charged with one count of sexual assault in August. That case, which relates to an alleged incident dating back to 1988, is due back in a Quebec court on Nov. 5.

‘I’ve been exonerated’ The Globe has an interview with Admiral Art McDonald, who wants his job back. McDonald spent a month as chief of the defence staff before going on leave during an investigation into a 2010 incident alleged to have been misconduct. That investigation concluded without charges in August. “I’ve been exonerated,” McDonald told the Globe. “It is now time for the institution to step up, accept the results of the investigation, return me to my duties – or at least start a dialogue around an alternative approach.” A spokesman for the Privy Council Office, says the “suspension remains in force” and that the “government is assessing all circumstances in determining next steps.”

External oversight: The Star has a thoughtful story based on interviews with experts who study military sexual misconduct. They are pleased that the government has recognized that the military does not “get it,” but they have not taken the steps necessary to force change.

“The military is not going to solve this on its own. There needs to be this external oversight,” said Maya Eichler, Canada research chair in social innovation and community engagement at Mount Saint Vincent University, who specializes in military sexual misconduct.

Some may get it: Writing for Saltwire, Scott Taylor opines that it is going to far to say the military doesn’t get it. Senior brass don’t, he writes, but the rank and file do.

Regrettably, Trudeau’s blanket statement should have been more targeted at the very senior command level of the CAF. The fact that the news of Dawe’s appointment generated enough internal reaction that it was subsequently leaked to the Ottawa Citizen means that many of the rank and file do in fact “get it.”

G20 Afghan summit: Canada joined its G20 allies in pushing Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers to allow humanitarian aid, CP reports. The European Union announced a support package of $1.4 billion. Canada did not announce new money, but pushed for the resettlement of refugees, noting Canada will accept 40,000.

Macron wants a chat: Emmanuel Macron wants face time with Trudeau. The French ambassador tells CP that Macron wants to discuss the alliance formed last month between the United States, Britain and Australia, which angered Macron. Trudeau has shrugged off Canada’s exclusion.

Could be more useful: Ontario’s vaccine website, where Canadians from the province can download the proof of vaccination, can’t be accessed from outside North America, Global reports. Canadians travelling abroad tell Global that the Ontario vaccine webpage was blocked. The province says it plans to fix the site.

NDP ponders election: The Toronto Star reports on the NDP’s internal debris-sifting. The party entered the recent campaign with high hopes but gained just a single seat. The party has appointed Bob Dewar — brother of the late Paul Dewar — to lead an internal “debrief.”

— Stephen Maher

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