A CBC producer, soggy as a sponge like everyone else in the media gaggle, took it upon himself to be the warm-up act.

“GOOD MORNING PRIME MINISTER IS THIS SUNNY WAYS?” he bellowed at Justin Trudeau in a goofily exaggerated yell as the PM strode up the driveway of Rideau Hall alongside his wife, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, both of them sheltered by a large umbrella.

“GOOD MORNING CHRIS HOW ARE YOU DOING TODAY?” Trudeau hollered, returning serve on the joke.

The producer’s line was doing double duty, of course, referring to election night 2015, when a jubilant Trudeau invoked Wilfrid Laurier in declaring that “sunny ways” had won the day, and to the sun-drenched walk that Trudeau and his first cabinet had taken along this very same driveway soon after.

READ: Five key takeaways from Trudeau’s substantial cabinet shuffle

That absurdly photogenic walk was feel-good political stagecraft at its finest, but now it registers like a decades-old high school yearbook: good god, we were so young and innocent.

The front row in those photos is now a gallery of this government’s fallen: Catherine McKenna (did not stand for re-election), Bill Morneau (resigned amid the WE Charity controversy), Jane Philpott (resigned over the treatment of her friend, Jody Wilson-Raybould, during the SNC-Lavalin scandal). It’s still an amazing political image, but half the people in it are ghosts now.

It was, in contrast, distinctly un-sunny as the first cabinet of the 44th Parliament was sworn in on Tuesday, following the government’s dour sort-of victory with a minority parliament on Sept. 20. A gorgeous autumn in Ottawa had finally given way to proper fall gloom, and the day was truly miserable, with rain flooding the grounds of Rideau Hall and everyone standing on it.

The CBC producer made one more jokey attempt to get something out of Trudeau before he disappeared from view. “What does this ministry mean?” he called out. “Lots of hard work ahead, looking forward to today,” Trudeau grinned in non-response.

Further down the lawn, beyond a web of paths that connected to the driveway, shuttle buses were visible through the trees. The new cabinet members, walking with their family members, all in masks and sheltered by umbrellas, were deployed at regular, deliberate intervals like bridesmaids, by some unseen staffer.

In the midst of this puppet theatre, though, there were delightful moments of real humanity.

“Good morning, Minister Ien, how does that sound?” the producer called when Marci Ien, a former broadcaster and relative newcomer representing Toronto Centre, walked past on the way to being sworn in as minister for women and gender quality and youth. “It sounds amazing,” she replied, and there was nothing canned in the sentiment packed into that last word.

Ahmed Hussen, about to become minister of housing and diversity and inclusion, was the only one to walk solo into Rideau Hall; the rest of his family is presumably busy with the new baby—his fourth— that they welcomed just days earlier.

IMAGE OF THE WEEK: It’s raining, it’s pouring, the PM names a cabinet

Carla Qualtrough retained her role as minister of employment, workforce development and disability inclusion, and on her way into the ceremony displayed truly excellent comedic flair. “I can’t see because of my glasses,” she laughed to the media, as her lenses fogged over above her mask. “Well, I can’t see anyway,” quipped Qualtrough, a lawyer and Paralympic medal-winning swimmer who happens to be legally blind.

Marc Miller, who would move from Indigenous services to crown-Indigenous relations, was the last minister up the driveway and through the doors, sporting a stunning robin’s egg-blue beadwork mask made by Tania Clute, an artist from Akwesasne.

In broad strokes, the moving cabinet pieces that came together through the swearing-in ceremony inside Rideau Hall looked an awful lot like putting serious people in charge of serious files to which they are well-suited.

Trudeau had previously announced that Chrystia Freeland would stay on as deputy prime minister and finance minister, and she increasingly looks set up to be his heir apparent.

The appointment of Steven Guilbeault, a former Greenpeace activist and founding member of the Quebec environmental organization Équiterre, as minister of environment and climate change suggests some real teeth on that critical file. Anita Anand, who as procurement minister was credited with the successful effort to obtain Canada’s COVID-19 vaccines, takes over the troubled file of national defence from Harjit Sajjan, who was heavily criticized for how he handled sexual misconduct in the military. Sajjan, notably, was not booted from cabinet but rather moved to international development and the newly-created Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada.

Jean-Yves Duclos, an economist widely regarded as smart, thoughtful and willing to explain things, takes over the health ministry at a crucial moment as Canada (knock wood) exits the COVID era. But while it might have been expected that public health or pandemic preparedness would be carved off that file, it was mental health and addictions that became its own ministry, under Carolyn Bennett.

Melanie Joly, formerly minister of official languages and economic development, got a major promotion to succeed Marc Garneau—no longer in cabinet but rumoured to be up for the lovely consolation prize of an ambassadorship in France—as foreign minister. Joly’s appointment is slightly baffling as nothing in her background nods at this role, and as my colleague Marie-Danielle Smith put it, the appointment “seems to say more about Joly and the Liberal Party’s future than it does about Trudeau’s foreign policy agenda.” Or perhaps what it says about Trudeau’s interest in foreign policy is that there isn’t much.

READ: Introducing the Minister of Memes, Distractingly Good Hair and Spilling the Hot Tea

Rounding out what are likely to be the bold-faced names of this parliament is Karina Gould, who becomes minister of families, children and social development. Given the government’s desire to establish a national daycare program—a transformative, generational effort if they can succeed where so many have fallen short so many times—that will be a hefty file.

The implacable math of precedent and politics dictates that Trudeau may have already fought his last election as leader—though when he was asked directly on Tuesday whether he would lead the Liberals in the next election campaign, he answered “Yes,” with deliberate abruptness. Even if he wages one more campaign—with a minority parliament, it could come just a year from now—he is certainly on the downslope of his time as Prime Minister, and that means it’s time to think about legacy.

“Canadians are expecting big things to be done by parliament and by this government,” he said on Tuesday. “Whether it’s continuing to step up more and faster in the fight against climate change, whether it’s moving forward in even more concrete and tangible ways on the path of reconciliation, or whether it’s looking at what it really means to build back better and ensure that as we grow our economy, everyone gets included. These are no small tasks, these are the things that Canadians expect us to do.”

He has built what looks like a grown-up cabinet, with smart and substantial people plugged into big and difficult roles—Anand, Guilbeault and Duclos being the most vivid examples, with the most relevant files for the moment—for which their skills and strengths are well-suited.

The best legacy move at this point might be the one most difficult to execute because of how it contradicts all the demonstrable tendencies of this government to have everything orbit the political centre like a solar system: just give these smart people you picked the space to do their jobs. Having government ministers who can think and do, and talk (more or less) freely about that thinking and doing is good for everyone.

But there is also this: Team Trudeau can’t be Team Trudeau forever, or perhaps even for very much longer. It would be excellent for everyone involved—including the eponymous man himself, his party and his legacy—if the cabinet full of serious people sworn in on Tuesday were allowed to do serious things and wield serious power, so that at some point in the future when they are needed, serious contenders for the crown are waiting.

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In 2015, Canada’s new, youthful prime minister led his gleefully optimistic and diverse cabinet on a golden march under clear blue skies. He famously decreed that “sunny ways” and positive politics were the keys to his success. Cut to six years and two elections later, and Justin Trudeau—now a grizzled veteran who’s barely survived multiple scandals and lost the popular vote in two straight elections—walks alone with his wife on a grey and drizzly autumn morning, introducing a socially distanced cabinet after shuffling numerous high-profile ministers out from damaged portfolios. Gone are the sunny ways, after Trudeau aggressively attacked Erin O’Toole to eke out a minority victory just weeks ago; gone is the proclamation that “We’re back” on the world stage, after stalemates with the U.S., fiascos in India and three years of agonizing hostage diplomacy with China; gone are the promises of “real change” after the pandemic really changed everything without Trudeau’s help. Multiple clouds are hovering over the PM’s latest cabinet. He and his ministers are facing lofty expectations to define themselves and justify their victories. No doubt, more storms are coming. At least the PM brought an umbrella.

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Finally—finally!—cabinet speculation season has ended. On a soggy day in the nation’s capital, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has unveiled a new cabinet.

It’s a substantial shuffle. Only seven ministers are retaining exactly the same portfolios they had before being re-elected. Many others are moving laterally, with major portfolios switching hands, but some are absent, and a handful of new faces are joining the team—some with brand-new portfolios that signal Liberal priorities going into another minority Parliament.

Here are five key takeaways from Tuesday’s swearing-in.

Power is shifting with major promotions and demotions.

Harjit Sajjan is, as expected, out as defence minister; he’s been shifted to international development. It’s a nod to the talents of pandemic-era procurement minister Anita Anand that she’s being put in charge of such a huge mess. (Or a political death sentence. But let’s keep things positive.)

Out of the picture altogether despite their re-elections are Jim Carr, whose has had recent health struggles; Marc Garneau, late of foreign affairs, who is rumoured to be in line for an ambassadorship in France; and Bardish Chagger, who has had a rough few years as House leader.

Meanwhile, the stars of Quebec ministers Mélanie Joly and Steven Guilbeault are rising; Joly is the new foreign minister and Guilbeault will be let loose on the environment file—something the former Greenpeace activist has been vocal about throughout his career. Karina Gould, the international development minister, is now in charge of families, children and social development—a promotion in light of this government’s heavy focus on childcare.

A notable new face in cabinet is Sean Fraser, a Nova Scotia MP who won “Best Orator” in the Maclean’s 2021 Parliamentarian of the Year awards. He takes over the immigration file from Marco Mendecino, who has his own big promotion to public safety.

Liberals are looking to get the most out of a minority Parliament, but a big cabinet means a muddle of priorities.

That the cabinet has stayed so large—with 38 ministers—signals that Liberals want to be ambitious with their third mandate, despite their failure to make gains in an election Trudeau ostensibly called to secure himself a majority.

But it also means that the Liberals’ laundry list of priorities could get muddled when it comes to the legislative agenda. It is almost impossible to think of a policy area that isn’t covered by the ministers’ sweeping job titles. It is almost impossible to imagine a cabinet table where their voices will have equal weight, or a Parliament that can handle major initiatives from more than a handful.

Still, notable new portfolios signal areas the government cares about. The headline is that housing gets its own minister in Ahmed Hussen. Mental health and addictions also gets a minister in Carolyn Bennett. This both signals the government’s seriousness on that file and proves a tacit acknowledgement of the need for a refresh in Bennett’s previous Crown-Indigenous relations role, now to be headed by Marc Miller.

A trio of rookie ministers are responsible for specific areas for economic development: Gudie Hutchings gets “rural economic development” writ large; Helena Jaczek gets Southern Ontario; and Pascale St-Onge, who is also Minister of Sport, gets the regions of Quebec. (Northern affairs minister Dan Vandal picks up the prairies and the north; Patty Hajdu, on top of her new Indigenous services role, gets Northern Ontario; and Ginette Petitpas Taylor, back for a second chance in cabinet after being demoted out, is in charge of official languages and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency.)

Foreign policy is still an afterthought.

The appointment of Mélanie Joly as foreign minister seems to say more about Joly and the Liberal Party’s future than it does about Trudeau’s foreign policy agenda.

To be sure, this is a major promotion for Joly. She fumbled in the government’s early days (see: Netflix and Quebec) but has more recently found her footing and is on the lips of those speculating about who might replace Trudeau whenever he steps down. If pundits are correct that the Liberals would like to create a level playing field for those potential successors, this is one way to put Joly in league with Chrystia Freeland, who remains finance minister and deputy prime minister.

Joly’s appointment sends no particular signal to the global community, however. Foreign governments will find little in her CV to indicate how she will approach international policy. Theoretically, that could be to her advantage as she tries to carve out a meaningful profile and handle huge geopolitical questions. But she is the fifth and youngest foreign minister to serve under a PM who has never seemed particularly interested in foreign policy. It will be an uphill battle no matter what.

The pandemic era is (almost) over.

Jean-Yves Duclos has been one of the Trudeau government’s most effective, least controversial ministers. It signals a level of seriousness that the former Treasury Board president is being put in charge of health.

Emergency preparedness has been carved out from the public safety umbrella as its own portfolio, another serious change that could have an impact on how the government plans ahead for future disasters. It will be headed up by Bill Blair.

But there’s little evidence of the pandemic on this list. Some speculated that a 2021 cabinet would feature a new ministry in charge of public health. Not so. Instead we have new portfolios focused on other crises. This is a government that is ready to move on.

That’s despite the strangeness of a cabinet swearing-in ceremony where everyone is masked at all times, where oaths are slightly muffled, where smiles are obscured and elbow-bumps (in some cases, forearm caresses) have replaced handshakes. The shadow still hangs over.

Sunny ways are long gone.

Cabinet-building is always an exercise in optics and regional politics. Trudeau’s first, photogenic roster in 2015 was carefully manufactured to project optimism and diversity. And it was pure luck that the front benchers could stride out on the Rideau Hall lawn on a gorgeous day. But it gave the new Prime Minister’s “sunny ways” speech a ring of destiny.

There’s no mistaking that the shine has worn off. After six difficult years of governing, a handful of ethical scandals and two rocky elections, Trudeau’s Liberals are chastened. Staffers are tired. Opposition parties are emboldened. And a new cabinet is leaving the building on a cold, rainy day. How’s that for symbolism?

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Justin Trudeau will make his way to Rideau Hall at 10:30 a.m. to unveil his post-election cabinet, and we have speculation and prognostication to share.

Many changes: The Globe has the most detailed story, reporting that Marc Garneau, Harjit Sajjan, Patty Hajdu and Jonathan Wilkinson will all get new jobs.

Heads will roll: CBC reports that two or three ministers will be out and Harjit Sajjan will be replaced by a woman, maybe Anita Anand.

Whiteboard it: In Politico, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, who longtime Insider readers will recall fondly, writes that Trudeau has such a big job that he will need “an erasable, oversized whiteboard to game out the next federal cabinet.”

He’s also under pressure to reassign Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, an underperformer who has fallen short on key files — including fixing a misogynistic military culture. It’s all a recipe for an overhaul of the Cabinet, not an exercise in tinkering. The last group was assembled before a pandemic, and some of the party’s priorities have taken on new urgency and increased public scrutiny. The people in charge of major portfolios will signal to insiders who Trudeau trusts most to see through an ambitious agenda. Some newcomers, including Alberta MP Randy Boissonnault, are instant contenders. But adding one man means either cutting another, or promoting an additional woman. It could get bulky. Trudeau’s last Cabinet had 37 ministers, himself included. Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper both maxed out at 40. In the end, Trudeau could set a new Canadian record.

Up to Freeland: Global has a policy-oriented overview, and agrees with Politico‘s opinion that it is likely to be bigger than the last cabinet, and it will be up to Chrystia Freeland to manage the economic exit from the pandemic.

A recent report from CIBC Economics suggested that pent-up consumer spending could be a “springboard” for Canada’s economy over the next two years — but noted that Canadians have been “cautious” with their money compared to U.S. consumers, even in sectors not directly hit with pandemic shutdowns.

For Freeland and the Liberals, the potential risk of persistent inflation is a more troubling economic — and political — issue. The consumer price index rose 4.4 per cent year-over-year in September, according to Statistics Canada — the largest increase since 2003. That’s something Canadians feel directly at the gas pump, in grocery stores and restaurants. It’ll be up to Freeland to reassure Canadians that the government has the finance file under control.

Responding to these assertions on Monday morning, NDP MP and critic for Indigenous youth Charlie Angus cited a hand-written letter he’d read from a teacher to then-minister Chrétien that was from St. Anne’s Residential School in Fort Albany, Ont. It was dated 1968, he said. In it, the teacher told him “that crimes are being committed against children, that he as Indian affairs minister had to step up and do something. And Jean Chrétien never responded,” Angus said. “Imagine if he had read that letter, and thought ‘I should do something.’ How many children could have been saved? Because some of the worst crimes were being committed at that time. So it is outrageous for Jean Chrétien today, to try and whitewash his role…because he knew people reached out to him and they begged him to do the right thing. And he ignored them,” Angus said.

Reasonable attestation:  A Federal Court judge has ruled Ottawa was within its rights to require applicants to its summer-jobs program to declare themselves in support of abortion rights, CP reports.

Sweet time: Cranky Liberal MPs want a caucus meeting, they anonymously tell the Hill Times.

The last federal election took place more than a month ago and the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois have already held their  first national caucus meetings but the Grits have not. “There’s just like a lot of chatter, and a lot of MPs are pissed off, like really pissed off,” said one Liberal MP who spoke to The Hill Times on a not-for-attribution basis to offer their candid opinion. “Because [MPs want to discuss] what they heard at the doors [during the election campaign] and why they’ve [leadership] been taking their sweet-ass time, and why no one’s reaching out to them [from the leadership].”

Not enough: In the Toronto Sun, Brian Lilley writes that Doug Ford and the Trudeau government have yet to make a child-care deal because Ottawa isn’t offering Ontario enough money.

Gondek skips Chu: Jyoti Gondek, Calgary’s first female mayor, was sworn into office on Monday, after which she declined to administer the oath of office to Sean Chu, who was disciplined for having intimate contact with a teenage girl, CBC reports.

Did Trudeau get paid? An organization that received $5.8 million from the federal government won’t say if it paid the Prime Minister’s mother, Margaret Trudeau, to speak at an event it held this month, CTV reports.

Unjabbed docs sue: Four Alberta doctors are suing the provincial health authority over mandatory  vaccination, CBC reports.

“Any medical procedure performed on a patient without their informed consent amounts to assault,” the statement of claim says.

— Stephen Maher

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Jean Chrétien has told the CBC the Trudeau government should have moved earlier to free the two Michaels: “We lost three years. That is a problem, they stayed in jail for three years. So, I thought at the beginning that they should have moved earlier.”

Former prime minister Brian Mulroney suggested in mid-2019 that Chrétien be sent to China to help resolve the crisis sparked by the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada in late 2018. Former diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor were arrested in China a few hours later.

Chrétien said at the time he was willing to go, and was reported in June 2019 to have floated the idea of Trudeau intervening to cancel Meng’s case — his former chief of staff Eddie Goldenberg later made the case plainly in the Globe and Mail, calling for “a prisoner exchange.”

Chrétien made the comments in an interview promoting his new book, My Stories, My Times, Vol. 2, which comes out tomorrow.

Economic warning: In an interview with CTV, Chrétien warned about high levels of government spending.

“We’re printing money like crazy,” he said. Asked if that worried him, he said “yes.”

“We’re moving into a dark alley, but we’ll have to go to the end of the alley.”

Till Tuesday: Susan Delcaourt, in the Star, has a thoughtful column on what to watch for tomorrow when Trudeau appoints his post-election cabinet.

Will it be a cabinet designed to tackle big things like climate change, Indigenous reconciliation and the shape of the post-pandemic future? Or will it be mainly a human-resources exercise of promotions, demotions and lateral moves? Much of the speculation has been focused on the latter: who Trudeau intends to put into problem departments such as defence, and which of the current ministers and MPs are due for a step up or a step out. Trudeau has given few signs, either during the election campaign or afterward, that he is making any big shifts in business as usual.

Change at DND: In the Post, Matt Gurney writes that it was reasonable for Trudeau to take a break after the election, but that’s over and it’s time for him to appoint a new defence minister to do something about the problem of sexual misconduct in the military.

We need one, clearly. It’s long overdue. But there’s no reason to delay tackling this problem for even another day — frankly, we’ve delayed too much already. The prime minister can’t fix the long-festering issues of sexual misconduct in the military overnight, and it would be silly to pretend he could. But he can fix the problem right at the top — immediately.

If you missed it last August, check out Marie-Danielle Smith‘s investigation in Maclean’s, The War Inside the Military.

Kenney looks doomed: How bad does it look for Jason Kenney? Philippe J. Fournier, in Maclean’s, breaks it down.

In this Léger poll, satisfaction towards the federal government’s handling of the pandemic stands at 52 per cent in the province. You read this right: Roughly twice as many Alberta voters are satisfied with the federal Liberals than with the UCP. Even taking into account the poll’s uncertainty, these are eye-popping numbers. And Léger is no outlier: in its latest round of Premier approval, the Angus Reid Institute measured similar damning results for Jason Kenney.

Amateur hour: Speaking of struggling conservatives, Chantal Hebert has a sharply observed column in the Star taking note of Kenney’s troubles and those of Erin O’Toole, who looks to be getting dragged into a “lose-lose fight” over mandatory vaccination on the Hill. Worse still, she writes, the incoherence also extends to the economy.

And here again, the Conservative team seems bent on making Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland look like the adults in the room, for partly lost in the controversy over the Conservatives’ reluctance to comply with mandatory vaccinations was their amateurish approach to the inflation debate. As my colleague Heather Scoffield noted in a column earlier this week, it is ridiculous for the Conservatives to pretend that Trudeau is responsible for rising inflation rates.

If that is what O’Toole and his shadow cabinet really believe, then they are out to lunch. If it is not, then they are taking voters for fools. The allegation only serves to diminish the Official Opposition’s credibility. The fact that the Conservative attacks are backed by conspiracy theories peddled by MP Pierre Poilievre about the Bank of Canada compounds the damage.

Real risk: In the Globe, Andrew Coyne takes a look at the real risk of inflation, and concludes that we should not panic, yet.

The extraordinarily loose fiscal and monetary policies pursued over the past 18 months may not have ignited inflation while the economy was flat on its back, and held there by government-ordered lockdowns. But now that the lockdowns have been lifted, and the economy is recovering, there is real risk of an inflationary blow-off. Escaping that fate will require reductions in both the government’s issuance of debt and the Bank of Canada’s purchases of it. Fortunately, both seem to be in the works. The federal deficit has already been cut, from $335-billion last year to a projected $138-billion in fiscal 2022, and it seems to be heading lower, especially after this week’s decision to discontinue the main pandemic aid programs.

New mayors: In Maclean’s, Jason Markusoff has a lively interview with the new mayors of Calgary and Edmonton,  Jyoti Gondek and Amarjeet Sohi, who have interesting things to say about the progressive p0litical direction of urban Alberta.

Justice for Soliman: Walied Soliman, who chaired Erin O’Toole’s election campaign, has won a $500,000 defamation award against a “news commentator” who used social media sites to accuse Soliman of being a terrorism supporter, the Citizen reports.

Leans right: Twitter has admitted it amplifies more tweets from rightwing politicians and news outlets, especially in Canada, the Guardian reports.

According to a 27-page research document, Twitter found a “statistically significant difference favouring the political right wing” in all the countries except Germany. Under the research, a value of 0% meant tweets reached the same number of users on the algorithm-tailored timeline as on its chronological counterpart, whereas a value of 100% meant tweets achieved double the reach. On this basis, the most powerful discrepancy between right and left was in Canada (Liberals 43%; Conservatives 167%), followed by the U.K. (Labour 112%; Conservatives 176%). Even excluding top government officials, the results were similar, the document said.

$5 bad, $25 good: In the Vancouver Sun, Vaughan Palmer has another column on the NDP government’s plan to impose a $25 fee on access-to-info applications, noting that Murray Rankin deplored such fees, when he was an MP.

Back when the two of them were serving as NDP MPs in the federal parliament, Rankin denounced Ottawa’s $5 application fee “as a tollgate on the public’s right to know.” “Access to information sounds like a good idea when one is in Opposition and can use it as a tool, but when in government, it is expensive and it is a pain,” added Rankin, never thinking how those words might be thrown back at him when he was on the other side of the government-Opposition divide at the provincial level.

— Stephen Maher

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