Tragic deaths: Minnesota authorities charged a Florida man with human smuggling after four people, including a baby, were found dead near the Manitoba-U.S border, the Globereports. Steve Shand, 47, was charged after seven Indian nationals were found in the U.S.
Before the bodies were discovered in Manitoba, U.S. Border Patrol officers had stopped a 15-passenger van about one kilometre south of the international border in a rural area between the official ports of entry at Lancaster, Minn., and Pembina, N.D., the release stated. Shand was driving with two passengers determined to be undocumented foreign nationals from India, Acting U.S. Attorney Charles J. Kovats stated in the news release.
Ontario opening:Doug Ford announced Thursday that Ontario’s economy will begin to reopen at the end of the month, the Starreports. Closures of indoor restaurant dining, gyms and cinemas are to end Jan. 31 with a move to 50 per cent customer capacity.
Too slow? Rupa Subramanya, writing in the Post, finds it too slow, pointing out that Ontario has locked down harder and longer that most places in the world.
In other words, in a few days we’re not even going back to the freedoms we enjoyed last fall, but we’re once again under “circuit breaker” conditions, defined by the Ontario Science Table back in December as a reduction in contacts by 50 per cent and an accelerated booster roll out. By mid March, we’ll roughly be back to where we were, but significantly we don’t have an explicit roadmap to a full return to normalcy and the present relaxations could be reversed if the premier doesn’t like where cases are going.
Même plus lentement: François Legault said Thursday it’s still too soon for Quebec to consider reopening because the province’s hospital network remains in too critical a state, the Gazettereports: “I understand we are all tired, but lives are at stake,” Legault said, admitting he’s under “a lot of pressure” to loosen restrictions as soon as possible.
Look out: Canada’s cyberspy agency is warning of Moscow-backed cyberattacks as Western countries prepare economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, the Globereports.
The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security joined its counterparts in the United States and United Kingdom on Thursday in urging Canadian companies, such as electrical utilities and energy firms, to watch out for cyberattacks from Russia. The agency said in a statement Thursday that it is aware of foreign cyberthreat activities, including by Russian-backed actors, to target Canadian critical infrastructure network operators and their operational and information technology.
Not afraid: Russia’s Ambassador to Canada, Oleg Stepanov,told CTV Thursday that Russia isn’t afraid of sanctions: “Sanctions never work and sanctions never will be able to work against such countries, such [a] nation as Russia. The attempts to use sanctions as a threat in order to make Russia do certain steps on the international area is just an illusion.”
Absent Tories: There are no CPC MPs among the newly named slate of parliamentarians to oversee the security-and-intelligence community because Erin O’Toole is boycotting the body, CP reports. O’Toole pulled his party’s MPs from the committee last spring to protest the government’s refusal to hand over documents about the firing of two scientists.
Lithium testimony: Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne will go before a federal committee to answer questions about why the government is allowing a state-owned Chinese firm to buy a Canadian lithium company without a security review, the Globereports.
All foreign takeovers of Canadian companies are subject to a security screening by Ottawa. If the federal government suspects the transaction could be a threat to national security, the deal undergoes a more thorough review under Section 25.3 of the Investment Canada Act, and could ultimately be blocked. The act also gives the government leeway to block deals if the acquisition in question threatens the economic security of Canada with regards to critical minerals. Over the past decade, China has come to dominate a wide range of critical minerals used in the transition to the low-emissions and high-tech economy. The superpower dominates the lithium industry, with a 60-per-cent share of processing of the mineral. Lithium is widely used in electric-car batteries and energy storage. Canada currently has no lithium mines, no lithium processing plants and no lithium ion battery plants.
Better masks: Canada Post is seeking clarification from the federal government on its mask policy after refusing to let employees wear N95 masks, CTV reports.
Better messages: Stale messaging from the Liberal government on the pandemic could be part of the reason the three leading federal parties are nearly tied in current ballot support, pollster Nik Nanostells CTV.
Ballot support for the Conservatives and Liberals is down 5.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively since the federal election in 2021. When asked by Nanos Research what issues are at the top of mind, 33.4 per cent of Canadians responded with the pandemic. While there is a lot of media attention on Conservative infighting, Nanos said the Liberals should be concerned about looking like “a tired government.”
Harper’s business:The Financial Post has a long, chatty piece about the Stephen Harper’s latest career move, an activist investing fund with a protégé of Wall Street raider Carl Icahn.
PEI scorned: Competitors on Wednesday’s airing of Jeopardy! didn’t know where “a Spud Islander” is from, CBC reports.
Guns to Kyiv? Ottawa is poised to extend a military training mission and may provide Kyiv with weapons, sources tell the Globe as the world waits for Russia to move on Ukraine.
Canada may send small arms, night goggles, helmets, armoured vests and military radios, the Globe reports, and offer intelligence and cybersecurity advice, likely from the Communications Security Establishment.
And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday that Ottawa is also drawing up a list of economic sanctions that would be imposed on Moscow if Russia launches a military offensive against Ukraine. “We are working with our international partners and colleagues to make it very, very clear that Russian aggression is absolutely unacceptable,” Mr. Trudeau told reporters. “We are standing there with diplomatic responses, with sanctions, with a full court press to ensure Russia respects the people of Ukraine.”
Talking points: Canada faces hard questions in Ukraine, but, Paul Wellswrites in Maclean’s, a readout of cabinet conversations suggests the government has little important to say.
The interesting questions are not answered or even acknowledged. If 140,000 Russians roll across the border, do the Canadians fight or come home? If overwhelmed would they be reinforced? Call us when you have answers. Or, come to think of it, never mind; we may find out soon anyway. Second, and more broadly, everyone knows the real questions here. Should Ukraine be in NATO or, pending membership, defended by NATO with military force as though it already were? Should the pro-Western half of Ukraine, which lately includes its national government, receive lethal arms from NATO countries so it can participate in its own defence?
Prices up: Inflation hit a 30-year high at the end of 2021, which sets the stage for higher interest rates, CP reports. Statistics Canada reported Wednesday that the annual pace of inflation climbed in December to 4.8 per cent, the highest since 1991. Groceries climbed year-over-year by 5.7 per cent, the largest bump in a decade, and housing climbed by 9.3 per cent compared with December 2020. Gas prices were still up 33.3 per cent year-over-year in December.
Who’s to blame? Economists point to global supply chain pressures, but Pierre Poilievreblames Justin Trudeau. Popular B.C. MP Mark Strahlthanked Poilievre for showing leadership, which suggests Erin O’Toole may have problems in his caucus. The Globe editorial board doesn’t think he’s doing a good job.
Empty shelves: Trudeau is coming under increasing pressure on supply chain issues, as grocery stores struggle to keep shelves stocked, and industry leaders blame, among other things, a federal vaccine mandate for truckers. The Globe has a roundup on the issue:
“We were able to keep the essential flow of goods, medical supplies, of food, flowing back and forth across the border,” Mr. Trudeau said. “We will continue to make sure that we are getting what we need in Canada.”
Sylvain Charlebois, the director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, said on Wednesday there is already some evidence at retail stores that the supply chain is “not working effectively.” “We are seeing empty shelves across the nation,” he said, adding this is due to factors including the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, winter weather and the vaccination mandate.
Too much spending? In the Post, John Ivisonnotes that free-spending Liberals are under growing pressure to put on the brakes.
Justin Trudeau has been quick to point out that inflation is a global phenomenon – and it is (the OECD average is 5.8 per cent, in the U.K. prices rose by 4.8 per cent in December, and in the U.S. they rocketed by seven per cent). But Yves Giroux, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, said the government’s plans for future spending are not helping matters. “It puts additional pressure on inflation,” he said.
PBO concerned: The Globereports that Giroux also has concerns about the slow pace of financial reporting from the government, and doesn’t think the Liberals are being sufficiently clear about what spending is related to the pandemic.
In a report released Wednesday, the PBO also states about a third of the $541.9-billion allocated for new spending through to 2026-27 is not part of the government’s formal COVID-19 response plan. The PBO’s assessment is at odds with the government’s own announcements, which have characterized at least some of that spending as pandemic-related.
Jan. 31: Doug Ford is expected today to announce an easing of pandemic restrictions on Jan. 31, the Starreports, allowing indoor restaurant dining, gyms and movie theatres to open at 50 per cent customer capacity with masking protocols and proof of vaccination.
But there are signs the Omicron wave is peaking after quickly burning through the province, with the growth in infections and hospitalizations slowing. “We’re starting to see a glimmer of hope,” Health Minister Christine Elliott told a news conference Wednesday. “We expect these trends to continue, giving us more confidence as we plan for what comes next.”
Elliott concerned: Elliott is urging the regulatory body overseeing the province’s health professionals to crack down on doctors spreading unverified medical information brought to light in a Global News investigation, Global reports. “At a time when it’s never been more important for Ontarians to have confidence in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, this is unacceptable,” she said.
Good polls: Two new polls from from Abacus and Ekos show Ontario PCs in the mid 30s of voter support, while the Liberals and NDP are in the 20s, the Toronto Sunreports.
The polls will be seen as a reprieve for Ford and his team after a recent Angus Reid poll showed his job approval rating falling, an an Innovative poll showed the Liberals with a slight lead over the PCs for voter support.
Unjabbed unliked: Many Canadians are in favour of harsh punishments for the unvaccinated, a Maru poll for the Post finds. Some results: 37 per cent say it would be acceptable to deny them health care. 27 per cent that it would be OK to jail them and two-thirds are in favour of mandatory vaccines.
PM buys treats: Trudeau dropped by an Ottawa bakery Wednesday that was robbed twice this month, CTV reports. “After hearing about the recent break-ins at Brown Loaf Bakery, Yasir Naqvi and I decided to stop by and meet Yan – and pick up some treats, of course,” said Trudeau on Twitter.
Will pay for chair:Jagmeet Singh will file a disclosure report and pay for a free $1,895 rocking chair that he and his wife, Gurkiran Kaur Sidhu, promoted on Instagram, CBC reports.
On Dec. 10, Singh’s wife posted an image of the Grand Jackson Rocker by Canadian furniture company Monte Design on her Instagram account, mentioning the company. The party said Singh would repay the cost of the chair after CBC reported it was given to him and his wife as a gift. On Sunday, Singh published an image on his Instagram page of himself sitting in the same chair cuddling his newborn daughter, with the furniture company tagged in the image. “The chair was given to Gurkiran with an expectation that she would promote it on social media. There was no expectation that Jagmeet would post about it,” NDP spokesperson Mélanie Richer said in a statement to CBC News.
Madu out: Don Braid, writing in the Calgary Herald, reports that details about Alberta Justice Minister Kaycee Madu’s call to the Edmonton police chief “have been known in government since shortly after it happened in March 2021.” Jason Kenneysuspended Madu on Monday after CBC reported that he called the police about a distracted driving ticket.
Braid points out that this is political trouble Kenney doesn’t need.
It’s incredible that with Omicron surging, nearly 1,100 people in hospital, school openings in trouble, a crucial budget coming and the economy hanging in the balance, this government routinely mires itself in self-made troubles born of division and bad judgment.
Ukraine wants help: Ukraine has asked Canada to rush military supplies to its army as it faces the possibility of a Russian invasion, the Globe’sMark MacKinnonreports from Kyiv. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna asked Mélanie Joly, who is in Ukraine, to provide equipment. Joly promised to take the message back to Ottawa. “Many of the officials here have reiterated this demand. We know that it is important to play our part.”
Little to offer: In the Post, John Ivisonreports complaints from former senior officers who say the Liberals have neglected the military: “The prime minister and his closest advisers have never taken the armed forces that seriously,” said Andrew Leslie, a former Liberal MP and ex-Canadian Forces lieutenant-general, who also said the “PMO does not see any real political payback on defence expenditures.”
McKinsey money: The opposition parties are calling on the auditor general to investigate the Liberal government’s relationship with McKinsey and Company after a sharp rise in federal contracts to the firm, the Globereports. Federal spending on contracts with McKinsey rose from nearly zero in the final years of the former Conservative government to $17.2-million. MPs note that in the early years of the Liberal government, Dominic Barton served as both chair of a federal advisory council on economic growth while also leading McKinsey.
Airlines cut flights: Canada’s two biggest airlines are cutting thousands of flights because of the pandemic, CP reports. WestJet said Tuesday it will cancel 20 per cent of its February flights, blaming “government barriers.”
Mostly shut: A labour dispute has shut down most flights into St. John’s, CBC reports.
Grocery troubles: Grocery stores are struggling with labour and product shortages that could leave shelves bare, experts tell CP. “If we have to keep sending people home, at a certain point stores are not going to be able to operate,” said Gary Sands of the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers. Grocers want rapid tests to keep shelves stocked. A vaccine mandate for truckers isn’t helping, the industry says.
Against unvaxxed tax: On Tuesday, Jagmeet Singh condemned Quebec’s plan to tax the unvaccinated, calling it a threat to the universal access to health care, the Starreports.
Heal thyself: Speaking of the unvaxxed, Global’s Ashleigh Stewart has a good long read on a network of Canadian doctors who oppose COVID-19 vaccines, raising a good question about whether medical regulators are doing enough to hold doctors to account for their public statements.
Forced labour: Ottawa has killed two contracts with a supplier over allegations that the gloves it manufactured in Malaysia were made with forced labour, CBC reports.
New direction for mother corp? The Postnotes that Pablo Rodriguez’s mandate later instructs him to “modernize” the CBC, making it “less reliant on private advertising, with a goal of eliminating advertising during news and other public affairs shows.” There may be money for that: “The letter doesn’t include a figure, but during last year’s federal election the Liberals pledged $400 million over four years for that purpose,” the Post notes.
Off out: Speaking of the CBC, As It Happens host Carol Off is leaving the program after 15 years of great work.
Limited supply: Health Canada approved Pfizer’s antiviral treatment for COVID-19 on Monday, but supplies of Paxlovid are limited, so the Public Health Agency of Canada is asking provinces to prioritize the people most at risk of serious illness, CP reports.
Clinical trials showed the treatment, which helps prevent the SARS-CoV-2 virus from reproducing in an infected patient, was almost 90 per cent effective at reducing hospitalization and death in high-risk patients if given within three days of infection, and 85 per cent if given within five days. The medication requires three pills at a time, twice a day, for five days. It is the first oral COVID-19 treatment that can be taken at home to be approved in Canada but Tam admitted there may be some logistical challenges getting the drug to the right people quickly enough.
Unserious: Chinese health authorities have claimed that Omicron was introduced to a resident of Beijing through a piece of mail from Canada, which experts say is ludicrous, CP reports. A Chinese news outlet first reported that the Jan. 7 infection of a Beijing resident was the result of mail from Canada. Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a China expert at the University of Ottawa, said that’s an absurd suggestion: “Unlike the early days, scientists have clarified that it does not stay on surfaces. To suggest that it would be on mail that came over days from Canada is ludicrous.”
Testing goes on: The global Omicron wave is too severe to drop mandatory COVID-19 tests for air travellers arriving in Canada, Jean-Yves Duclos said Monday, the Starreports. Earlier Monday, Pearson airport, Air Canada and WestJet published an open letter to Duclos, asking him to drop the testing requirement and shift testing resources to other settings, like schools. Duclos said no: “At the moment, it’s not going to happen. We are probably, in Canada, not even at the peak of infections.” Some experts argue the testing requirement makes less sense now that Omicron is so prevalent that provincial testing regimes can’t keep up with infections.
Bad call: The Alberta NDP is calling for Justice Minister Kaycee Madu to resign after learning he called Edmonton’s police chief after receiving a distracted driving ticket, the Calgary Heraldreports. CBC News reported Monday that Madu was pulled over on March 10, 2021 and fined $300 for being on his cellphone in a school zone. He later called Edmonton police Chief Dale McFee to discuss the ticket.
Bad poll: Speaking of political headaches for Jason Kenney, a new Angus Reid poll says only 19 per cent of Albertans think he has done a good job handling COVID and 48 per cent think he has done a “very bad job,” the Heraldreports.
No foul: The federal ethics commissioner says Dominic Barton, Canada’s former ambassador to Beijing, did not violate ethics rules when he accepted an offer to chair Rio Tinto, the Globereports. Two NDP MPs asked for a probe, suggesting Barton was in breach of the Conflict of Interest Act because he met with executives of Rio Tinto shortly before the end of his time as a diplomat. But Mario Dion found there was no violation because Barton “did not have direct and significant dealings with Rio Tinto while he was Canada’s ambassador in China,” a spokesperson said.
Troops in Ukraine: Canadian special forces have been deployed to Ukraine amid rising tensions between the NATO military alliance and Russia, Global News reports. Sources told Global that the deployment is part of an attempt by NATO to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Distracted driving?Doug Ford was mocked and praised for acting as “taxi” and “snow plow” during a massive snow storm in Toronto on Monday, Yahoo reports. There was so much snow in the city, that the school board cancelled school for two days straight.
Good news: John Horgan has completed cancer treatment, the Vancouver Sunreports. “They had the phasers on stun and my treatment is complete,” Horgan said in a handwritten note he posted to Facebook on Monday. In October, Horgan announced that he had discovered a lump on his neck and that doctors recommended a biopsy.
Election promise: In the heat of the election campaign this fall, the Liberals promised to “table legislation to ensure that every business and organization that decides to require a proof of vaccination from employees and customers can do so without fear of legal challenge,” Campbell Clarkreminds us in the Globe. Such legislation might be useful to companies dealing with a raft of such lawsuits, except that four months later there is no sign of the legislation, and likely never will be.
Bile machine: Susan Riley, writing in the Hill Times, laments that Erin O’Toole, “a formerly likeable, middle-of-the-road backbencher and junior minister in Harper’s government—is behaving like an unhinged bile-machine.” He may be bad, she concludes, but the alternatives seem to be worse.
First to be second:Alexa McDonough’s main achievement at the national level could lie in her 1995 victory as the second woman to be elected to lead a federal political party, writesSusan Delacourt in the Star. Delacourt points out that the challenge for women isn’t getting the big jobs — it’s keeping them there.
The dark spectres that hang over Shazia Mohseni take multiple forms these days. Sometimes it’s the haunting possibility that to build the future she dreamed for herself she will be forced to leave her family behind in Afghanistan. “How can I live without them?” she says. “They are my life.” On good days, when she tricks herself into believing she may still be able to have a life under Taliban rule—a life of some kind—she tells herself: “Never!”
On bad days, when the Taliban in her native Kandahar introduce a new decree limiting women’s ability to navigate in public—No more shoes that make clacking noises!—or she hears about another public beating, she entertains the possibility of going it alone. “What could be worse than the non-life the Taliban have imposed on women and girls in Kandahar?” she thinks.
Other terrors in her not-so-distant future are less ambiguous. There is starvation, for one. Afghanistan is in the midst of its worst food shortage in living memory. According to the World Food Programme, 23 million people face starvation this winter, more than half the population.
The worst-hit families are those whose breadwinners are women, like the Mohsenis. Their nightmare started the moment the Taliban began to take control of Afghanistan’s major cities at the end of July, and the jobs that sustained them vanished. Before the Taliban came to Kandahar city, Mohseni’s days had been a torrent of activity. In the mornings she would go to her private university, where she was completing a computer science degree. Her afternoons were spent at the offices of Afghans for Progressive Thinking, a non-governmental youth mentoring organization, where she was the regional coordinator. In the evenings she would help her mother with household chores and then tackle her studies late into the night, sometimes by candlelight.
But as the Taliban tightened its grip on Kandahar, the university closed and the offices of her NGO were shuttered. By the time the Taliban conquered the city on Aug. 13, Mohseni hadn’t left the house in weeks and hadn’t been paid for more than a month. “When I was so busy, I used to think: ‘I wish I could just stay at home all day and rest,’ ” she told me in early August. “But now that I’m at home all the time, all I want is to go back to university and to go back to work.”
Mohseni studying at home: ‘All I want is to go back to university and to go back to work’ (Photograph by Oriane Zerah)
At the time, the prospect of either of those things happening were quickly dimming. Restrictions, including the strict separation of men and women and the requirement that women be accompanied by a male family member any time they were in public, had made it nearly impossible for women to work. As the Mohsenis burned through their savings, Shazia began to lose hope that the Taliban would keep their promise of allowing women to go back to work and resume their studies.
At the end of September, she and her family decided to make the difficult journey from Kandahar to Quetta, in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Perhaps there, given her work experience and command of English, she would find a job, she thought.
She also hoped that once she left Afghanistan she could appeal to Western nations for help. As a teenager, Mohseni had studied at a Canadian-funded school in Kandahar and was eventually hired to teach English classes there; as well, the NGO where she worked was funded by an Australian organization. After the fall of Kabul on Aug. 15, Canadian authorities advised Afghans who had worked with Canadian organizations (and who believed they qualified for the Special Immigration Measures visa) to leave Afghanistan and apply for the visa from a third country. The Australians, meanwhile, had already offered Mohseni an emergency visa; she had made a frantic trip by road to Kabul in the hopes of being evacuated from the airport. But the chaos there, and the ISIS suicide attack on Aug. 26 that killed 183 people, had forced her back to Kandahar.
Surely Canada or Australia would grant her permission to leave with her family. What other choice did she have?
***
During Afghanistan’s post-2001 state-building period, most women like Mohseni looked to the international presence to pursue a decent education and a job. For ambitious young people, a government education was a path to nowhere—the schools were poorly funded and badly staffed. And if you wanted to make a good salary, your best bet was to tap into the massive flow of foreign funds coming into Afghanistan.
But in a deeply conservative city like Kandahar, the choices for a private education, especially for poor families, were slim. Indeed, the only choice for Mohseni was a Canadian-funded school known as the Afghan-Canadian Community Centre, or ACCC. The centre was set up in 2006 by an Afghan, Ehsanullah Ehsan, and a Canadian, Ryan Aldred. Ehsan was a girls’ education advocate who had run successful girls’ schools for Afghan refugees in Pakistan during the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, and had returned to his native Afghanistan when refugees began going home following the collapse of the Taliban regime.
Aldred, a reservist from Picton, Ont., had stumbled upon Ehsan in 2006 while looking for a way to contribute to Canada’s military deployment to Kandahar province. “Initially, my thought was to help him buy a few computers and pay the teachers for a few months,” he says. “But as we talked and I got a sense of how far money would go in Kandahar, I decided to do more.”
Aldred and Ehsan were able to secure funding from the Canadian military, the Canadian International Development Agency and private donors in Canada to set up a school in Kandahar that would teach skills like English and computer literacy. The goal was to make young Kandaharis employable with the rapidly expanding foreign-funded organizations popping up all around Afghanistan. “There was a lot of money to be made there,” Ehsan says. “But so much of it was leaving Afghanistan in the pockets of foreigners. Ryan and I thought Afghans should be receiving some of this money. So we trained them with the skills these foreign organizations needed.”
Women taking a class at the Afghan-Canadian Community Centre (Photograph by Oriane Zerah)
Their idea was hugely successful. By 2009, the centre had amassed so much funding that it expanded from the one-room classroom it had borrowed from a government school into its own building, with a staff of 110 and 1,500 students, split evenly between boys and girls. It also established partnerships with outside institutes, including the Southern Alberta Institute for Technology, which offered students advanced online classes. ACCC graduates quickly began making names for themselves in Kandahar. Sarina Faizy, who studied at the school from 2010 to 2012, was hired by the U.S. military’s media relations team when she was just 12 years old. By 16, she had won a seat on Kandahar’s provincial council, the sole female among a cohort of bearded, turbaned men. In 2018, while she was on a fellowship in the U.S., Gen Abdul Raziq, her advocate and protector in Kandahar, was assassinated. She never returned to Afghanistan. There was also Maryam Sahar, a star pupil at the ACCC who was hired by the Canadian military as its first, and only, female interpreter in Afghanistan. She was evacuated to Canada in 2012 after receiving death threats from the Taliban.
They were the lucky ones. Others, like Shahida Nishan, who convinced her conservative parents to break with tradition and let her pursue a medical degree, remain trapped in Afghanistan. “Mr. Ehsan taught us to be independent,” Nishan told me last summer. “He taught us how to make our arguments without anger. I was able to speak to my parents very calmly and explain to them that girls’ education is not bad. I was able to convince them that receiving a medical degree would help our entire family.”
Today, that same confidence has become a curse. The Taliban have allowed her to continue her education, but the quality of teaching at her private university collapsed after most of its top professors left Afghanistan. Nishan once believed she would become a surgeon; the best she can hope for now is only slightly better than a midwife.
“It’s cruel in its own way,” she told me recently. “I will finish my degree. Maybe other girls will also complete high school or, if they are lucky, go to university. But what will they do with that knowledge? In the Taliban’s view of the world, a woman has no place except in the home. A woman should not be seen or heard. Any knowledge a woman gains will remain stuck inside her head with nowhere to go. It will drive her mad.”
***
In the weeks and months following their takeover, the Taliban leadership has tried to project an image of unity and moderation. In meetings with foreign dignitaries, and the near endless stream of tweets that follow, they insist that no one is in danger; all are forgiven. The reality, however, is very different.
“Their rules are inconsistent,” Shaharzad Akbar, the head of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, who is currently in exile in Istanbul, told me in late October. “In one place women can wear the niqab, in others they have to wear a burka. Private high schools for girls have opened again in a few districts in the north, but not anywhere else. This suggests local decision-making and negotiations with local Taliban commanders, not centralized control.”
Some areas are again experiencing the brutality the Taliban meted out during their rule in the late 1990s; in others, particularly in major cities, where the eyes of the international community are watching, the Taliban have taken a softer approach. Increasingly desperate for cash, they insist that they have moderated, that they should be removed from terrorist watchlists—including Canada’s—and recognized as Afghanistan’s legitimate government.
In the process, sources on the ground tell me women have begun to carve out a space for themselves. According to one French aid worker who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Afghan women are back working at international NGOs in Kabul and other cities. An Australian aid worker said the Taliban’s central leadership “has bigger problems than women going to work. They need international aid, and that aid is tied to women’s participation. So they are allowing it, for now.”
Shinkai Karokhail, the former consul general at the Afghan consulate in Toronto and now one of Afghanistan’s female parliamentarians in exile, strikes a cautionary tone. “The Taliban will play the game with the international community as long as the attention of the world is on them,” she tells me from her new home in Mississauga, Ont. “But they have their own reasons for being vague about their intentions when it comes to the rights of women. Many of their fighters and commanders are uneducated villagers with ultra-conservative values; if the leadership appears to be too soft, if they are seen to be giving in to demands from the international community, those people will leave the Taliban and join groups like ISIS.”
It’s those radicals in the ranks of the Taliban that still strike fear into the hearts of many Afghans. Mohseni is terrified of them. Her attempts to leave Afghanistan through Pakistan failed. Neither the Australians nor the Canadians responded to her pleas for safety. Finding work proved equally frustrating. Without proper documentation, no Pakistani or foreign NGO would hire her, despite her impressive skills and resumé. By the beginning of November, the family had run out of money and was forced to return to Kandahar.
Since returning, Mohseni has managed to find work with an international NGO, though she asked me not to disclose which one, fearing repercussions if any of the “radicals” among the Taliban find out. She travels to and from work in a burka, fearful every time she leaves her home or her office that she will be kidnapped or killed. She has heard stories of such things happening from friends and relatives.
Like Nishan, the medical student, Mohseni now wonders if it was all worth it. She sacrificed her teenage years to chase the dream of becoming a “professional woman,” she says. “I had an idea of what my future life was supposed to look like. I used to picture it in my mind all the time, especially when I was feeling tired. It would give me energy. Now, if I think about that future me, all I do is cry.”
The lost future haunts Mohseni and Nishan, as well as thousands of other Afghan women who benefitted from the international project in Afghanistan. For many, it feels like a betrayal, of promises made and unkept. The unravelling of their nation has been the unravelling, too, of their own lives.
This article appears in print in the February 2022 issue of Maclean’s magazine with the headline, “Those left behind.” Subscribe to the monthly print magazine here.
Not enough truckers: Sylvain Charleboiswrites in the Toronto Sun that the federal government’s mandatory vaccination policy for border-crossing truckers may threaten supply chains that keep Canadians fed this winter. Charlebois, a professor at Dalhousie University who specializes in food issues, thinks we could see higher prices.
Canada imports about $21 billion worth of agri-food products from the United States every year, and about 60 to 70% of the food imported arrives on wheels. That’s almost 20% of the food Canadians buy in foodservice and retail. And the timing isn’t great. Much of the volume comes during the winter months when produce from the southern states offers welcome supplies to Canadian consumers. Stopping some of that business could exacerbate the driver shortage the industry is already experiencing and could drive up retail prices even further in the weeks to come.
Jabs required: As of Saturday, Canadian truckers needed to be jabbed to avoid quarantine when they cross the border, and U.S. truckers were to be turned away, CP reports. The industry is warning of supply chain problems, some which could have been exacerbated by confusion about the policy from the government last week.
‘Right thing to do’: Jean-Yves Duclostold Global Sunday that truckers should get vaccinated, “not only to protect themselves, obviously, but also to protect their businesses and the industry.”
Duclos emphasized the health benefit of the policy: “The federal government has a responsibility to look after borders. We need to secure our borders in this emergency context, where there is a lot of Omicron traveling not only inside Canada, but outside of Canada.”
Border testing questioned:The Star’sAlex Ballingall has an interesting story about border testing, and whether its usefulness has come to an end.
“The whole world has Omicron,” [Dr. Theresa] Tam said, when asked Friday about Canada’s use of testing resources on travellers from abroad when the virus is already smashing domestic records for new infections inside the country. “We could do sampling for the tests, instead of testing maybe every single vaccinated individual coming from other countries, but we will evaluate that over time,” Tam said.
Help sought:Dominic LeBlanctold CBC Sunday that the Omicron wave is so big that Ottawa is inundated with provincial requests for help: “These are tough weeks, we’re in very tough weeks now.”
Back to school: Students, parents and teachers are bracing for the unknown as kids in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Nova Scotia return to school today, CP reports. Some don’t expect it to go well. Nova Scotia Teachers Union President Paul Wozney, for instance, thinks reopening is a mistake: “The pressure that Omicron presents hasn’t lessened, it’s gotten worse.”
Alexa remembered: Trailblazing NDP leader Alexa McDonough died Saturday at the age of 77, Francis Campbellreports in Saltwire.
McDonough broke through a gender barrier in 1980, becoming leader of the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party, a position she would hold for 14 years. She represented the Halifax Chebucto and Halifax Fairview ridings in the Nova Scotia legislature from 1981 to 1994 and was elected leader of the federal NDP in 1995. She was elected as member of Parliament for the Halifax seat in 1997 and held the seat for four terms and nine years.
Decency:Saltwire also has a good column from John DeMont, pointing to her “fundamental humanity, her decency,” and a conversation with her biographer, Stephen Kimber, who recalled how Alexa dealt with the fact that when she was first elected, there was no women’s washroom in the Nova Scotia legislature.
Now, one of the things about Alexa that is very interesting is that she turned these negative things around. She knew that it didn’t make sense to complain about the lack of washroom facilities: it would have sounded like whining from a privileged south-ender, right? But what she did say is, hey, I got to stand in line with all these other women who were there to go and watch the legislature and I learned all sorts of things about issues that were concerning them while we stood in the line for the washroom.
Unprepared: In Maclean’s,JustinLing has a long and thoughtful feature on how our “slothful and lazy governments” have failed to build surge capacity in our health-care system, which means that we are buffeted by each wave of COVID.
Before the virus hit, Ontario had 2,012 adult ICU beds. As of Oct. 31, 2021, according to the province’s independent scientific advisory board, there were 2,343. Two years of the worst health disaster in modern Canadian history and its largest province managed to add 331 beds to its intensive care units. That story has been repeated straight across the country—albeit without Ford’s trademark ability to make up numbers. Nearly every province has seen its health system pushed to the breaking point in recent weeks due to the Omicron variant. All the promises that we’ve heard for two years about using the ebb between waves to prepare have turned to sand.
A bad vote? Interim Green Leader Amita KuttnertellsAlthia Raj, in the Star, that the party’s last leadership election was flawed.: “I don’t actually think that the last vote was legitimate. Enough people didn’t get their ballots.” Kuttner sketches out the party’s plan for the next leadership race and discusses their transition.
Ukraine warning: Ottawa is urging Canadians to avoid non-essential travel to Ukraine, warning of “Russian aggression” with more than 100,000 troops near the border, Reuters reports. Melanie Joly is to visit Kyiv this week.
Tear it down: It’s time to get rid of 24 Sussex, writesSusan Delacourt in the Star.
No challenge: Former Quebec premier Jean Charesttold CTV Sunday that Ottawa is unlikely to challenge Quebec’s controversial proposal to apply a tax on the unvaccinated: “I’ve been there. In the days when I was premier of Quebec, there were things we were doing, that in certain instances, may have been outside the Act. The federal government won’t move on [this], they’ll let it pass.”
Against: A National Posteditorial comes out strongly agains the idea of taxing the unjabbed: “Following this logic, we would levy special health taxes on smokers, on heavy drinkers, on those who eat too much fast food, too much sugar, and those who don’t exercise enough.”
Uncivil:Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin, who wrote a good column last week calling for pressure on the unvaxxed, was subsequently inundated by uncivil replies, she writes.
You’d think I had lobbed a grenade. Over the ensuing 48 hours, my inbox overflowed with responses, most of them negative. They could be grouped into four main categories: The “I am so disappointed in you” emails; the “you are wrong about the science” emails; the “seat-belt and drinking-and-driving laws are not vaccines” emails; and the rude emails, which included this gem of a death threat: “I will toast the day your families’ brains are smeared all over your living room walls. You asked for it. F***ing die bitch.”
Truckers need jabs: Ottawa reversed itself twice in 24 hours on the question of whether truckers crossing into Canada will need to be vaccinated, Global reports. Drivers will need to be jabbed, which contradicts a statement yesterday from the Canada Border Services Agency. The industry had been seeking an extension because 10 to 15 per cent of drivers are unvaccinated, which means thousands of truckers would be off the job, jeopardizing supply chains.
The situation only became hazier on Wednesday evening, when a CBSA spokesperson told media in a statement that Canadian truckers would be exempt from the vaccination requirements to return to the country.
Instead, almost 24 hours later, the government reversed itself, standing by the mandate. Industry groups in Canada and the United States warn that mandates imposed by the two governments will cause trouble in already stressed supply chains.
Proceeding:Francois Legault said Thursday that he will table a bill in February to tax the unvaccinated, CTV reports. He did not reveal more details, but emphasized that he sees it as necessary: “What we’re saying is those people who choose to not get vaccinated, well, there will be a price to pay … because there is an impact on society as a whole, there’s an impact on the costs of our healthcare network.”
On the other hand: Bioethicists do not think Legault is doing the right thing, reportsPatria Treble in Maclean’s.
“In Canada, people are allowed to make any kind of medical decision they choose, as long as it’s informed,” says U of T’s [Kerry] Bowman. “The line we are crossing is, ‘We don’t like the decisions you’re making.’” To him, such fees are essentially punitive, putting pressure on people to do something that curtails basic human autonomy: “It’s an ethical horror show that will do tremendous damage to our society.”
Trouble brewing: For the first time the popularity of Legault and his CAQ party is slipping in Quebec. 338Canada’s Philippe J. Fournier, writing in Maclean’s, looks at the surprising results of a new Mainstreet Research poll (conducted before the announcement of the unvax tax). “According to Mainstreet, if an election had been held this week in Quebec, the CAQ would have received 38 per cent of support, a drop of 10 points since Mainstreet’s previous Quebec poll last winter.”
O’Toole against:Erin O’Toolesaid Thursday that he opposes Quebec’s plan “to tax and target” those who are unvaccinated against COVID-19: “Vaccinated people get frustrated with what they perceive as a small group of people holding back the country,” but he thinks it’s a bad idea to tax them.
Data question: Opposition MPs pushed for the suspension of the Public Health Agency of Canada’s analysis of cellphone location data Thursday, Global reports. The agency has been using “de-identified” cellphone location data since early 2020 to measure how effective public health directives slow viral spread. The agency says the aggregate data cannot be used to identify individual Canadians. But opposition MPs suggested the program amounted to “tracking” Canadians.
Unregimental: Three Canadian regiments have been left without a patron after the Queen stripped Prince Andrew of his military titles on Thursday, CP reports. Andrew was honorary colonel-in-chief of: the Royal Highland Fusiliers of Canada, the Princess Louise Fusiliers, and the Queen’s York Rangers. On Wednesday, a U.S. judge refused to dismiss a civil case against Prince Andrew by Virginia Giuffre, who sued him in August, saying she was coerced into sexual encounters with him when she was 17.
Harper helps MacKay: Stephen Harper has written to Tories seeking money for Peter MacKay’s debt from the 2020 CPC leadership race, the Starreports. MacKay still owes about $500,000: “I understand that times are tight, but I do not want to see Peter and his family’s future weighed down by debt incurred in the service of our country and our Conservative party.”
Vax grievance: The RCMP’s union said Thursday that it is representing Mounties who are fighting the federal government’s vaccine mandate, CBC reports. President Brian Sauvé says the union is supporting members but not against mandates: “We’re neither here nor there on vaccine mandates. We don’t support it. We’re not against it.” Treasury Board statistics say more than 97 per cent of federal public servants are fully vaccinated.
Auto skirmish: Canada is joining Mexico’s official complaint alleging the U.S. is violating the new NAFTA on auto parts, CBC reports. Canada argues the Biden administration’s view of the rules is “inconsistent” with the trade deal the three countries agreed to in 2019. The dispute centres on how the three countries define a North American vehicle.
Moe isolating:Scott Moe has tested positive for COVID but is feeling well, the Star Phoenixreports.
Cottage repairs: Justin Trudeau and family are not living at the decrepit official residence at 24 Sussex, but the government has spent millions for work on Rideau Cottage, where they live, the Star reports.
Now, papers obtained under access-to-information legislation show the details of the work, ranging from the roof (all new) to the pavement (equally new) and everything in between. There was $16,000 for painting; a $4,200 JennAir range; piano tuning at $780 a pop; and $3,000 for dusting those high, hard-to-reach places. Then: $305,000 in paving and landscaping; $189,000 for a roof; and $343,000 in heritage interior renovations. (Figures rounded to the nearest thousand.)
Greenflation: Economists are predicting that shift to net-zero emissions is likely to drive higher inflation, Reuters reports.
Whose problem? Campbell Clark, in the Globe, has a useful column explaining that although premiers like to blame Ottawa for funding shortfalls, it’s really up to them.
Only provinces can answer the kinds of questions they face in a pandemic: Why are hospitals in Quebec, a province of nine million, in crisis when there are 2,500 patients with COVID in hospitals, only half of whom are being treating primarily for the virus? Why does Canada’s richest province, Alberta, have so many fewer ICU beds than one of the poorest U.S. states, Alabama? The real questions will always be about provincial choices. There’s a need for accountability.
That doesn’t take Trudeau off the hook, because he did promise to spend more, Clark writes, because lines of accountability are blurred in Canadian politics on this question.
Already taken: The People’s Party of Canada has been blocked from registering its name for a provincial party in Ontario by a Toronto man who has been running “Peoples Political Party” since 2011, the Starreports. Kevin Clarke has fielded as many as six candidates in a provincial election campaign, but none have even one per cent of the vote.
A new poll from Mainstreet Research suggests that the CAQ has slipped in voting intentions in Quebec since the holidays. While François Legault’s party still remains comfortably ahead, public opinion in Quebec appears to be in flux—a first since the pandemic began.
According to Mainstreet, if an election had been held this week in Quebec, the CAQ would have received 38 per cent of support, a drop of 10 points since Mainstreet’s previous Quebec poll last winter. Still, the CAQ holds an 18-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party, which is treading water at a measly 20 per cent support in the province.
It is Québec solidaire (QS) that seems to be benefiting from the CAQ’s erosion of support. The left-wing party is tailing the Liberals with 19 per cent support provice-wide, a significant increase over its performance in the 2021 surveys. Over the past year, QS has averaged between 12 per cent and 14 per cent in the polls in Quebec.
The Quebec Conservative Party (PCQ), led by Eric Duhaime, is the other party that appears to be benefiting from the current discontent with the CAQ. With support from 13 per cent of those surveyed—a significant increase over recent trends—Duhaime could certainly cloud the picture in the projections. This is particularly true in the Quebec City metropolitan area, where the PCQ is in second place (though still 15 points behind the CAQ). While we must always be cautious with regional sub-samples (they have a higher margin of error), the 2021 polls also indicated that the PCQ was performing better in the Quebec City area than in the rest of the province. Province-wide, support for the PCQ was measured between 5 per cent and 11 per cent in polls in the second half of 2021, so this would be a significant increase if this trend is confirmed.
Finally, the Parti Québécois and Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon do not appear to benefit from the CAQ’s missteps. Indeed, Mainstreet measures stable support for the PQ with 10 per cent of voting intentions in the province. Throughout 2021, PQ support has fluctuated between 9 per cent and 13 per cent in the polls.
This poll thus highlights that the “pandemic honeymoon” between the CAQ and Quebec voters may have reached a limit. The CAQ government’s about-face on holiday gatherings due to the exponential growth of COVID-19 infections, followed by the announcement of strong measures to counter the spread of the virus (closure of restaurants, bars, concert halls, ban on indoor gatherings, a curfew) seem to have had a significant impact on public opinion.
In the Montreal metropolitan area (Island of Montreal and the 450), the CAQ leads with 34 per cent, a 10-point lead over the PLQ, while QS is in third place with 20 per cent. In the Capitale-Nationale region, the CAQ continues to lead with 39 per cent, while the PCQ obtains 24 per cent. Finally, in the regions of Quebec, the CAQ still leads with 44 per cent support, 25 points ahead of Québec solidaire. Note, however, that the margin of error for the provincial survey is ±3 per cent, but it is higher for the regional sub-samples.
Unsurprisingly, the CAQ’s slide in voting intentions is accompanied by a decline in satisfaction with François Legault’s government. When asked, “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Premier François Legault’s performance since 2018?”, 57 per cent approve, compared with 41 per cent who disapprove. Surely many premiers in Canada would only dream of such ratings, but, compared to late 2021 polls, these approval numbers indicate a sharp decline for Legault of late.
When we break down these results by voting intentions, we see that François Legault still has near-unanimous support within his own party. Additionally, a majority of PQ voters approve of the premier. Only about one-third of QS and QLP voters approve of Legault’s performance, while a strong majority of Conservative voters disapprove.
It is not an easy task to include such a poll in seat projections. Why? When a poll shows numbers that are outside the current ranges, two scenarios are possible: either 1) the poll is a statistical outlier, or 2) the poll is a precursor to a new trend. However, if the survey is indeed measuring a new trend, we won’t know until other firms take the pulse of Quebecers.
While this Mainstreet poll measures stable support for the QLP and the PQ, it detects a significant decline in the CAQ in favour of Québec solidaire and the Conservatives. Is this a real trend that could continue? Or is it just a spontaneous reaction of the electorate following the recent lockdown measures? We will only know in coming weeks. For this reason, the updated seat projection cannot only be based on this survey alone.
Weighting the Mainstreet numbers in the 338Canada model, the CAQ wins an average of 93 seats. If this number seems excessively high, it is a direct result of the strong divide in the non-CAQ vote (and our first-past-the-post voting system). While the CAQ still dominates the francophone vote, it is facing four parties each polling between 10 per cent and 20 per cent. The result: with both the Liberals and the PQ well below their respective 2018 levels, the CAQ makes significant seat gains at the expense of these two rivals, while QS manages to keep most of its ground.
It is important to note that this Mainstreet Research poll was on the field prior to the announcement of the “unvaxx tax” by Legault on Tuesday afternoon. Will this policy proposal, whose details remain unknown at this time, assuage Quebecers’ dissatisfaction with the new lockdown measures? Will the resignation of Quebec’s director of public health, Dr. Horatio Arruda, have any impact on public opinion? We shall soon find out.
* * *
The data for this Mainstreet Research poll was collected from Jan. 6 to 8, 2022 from 1,105 Quebec voters aged 18 and older. The margin of error for the full sample results is ±3%, 19 times out of 20. Totals may not always add up to 100% due to rounding. To view the survey report, visit this link. To view the complete list of Quebec polls, as well as seat projections, visit the 338Canada page.
Let us see: There is reason to wonder, Paul Wellswrites in Maclean’s, if Francois Legault will really demand a “health contribution” from unvaxxed Quebecers. Wells thinks the idea has some merit—it has “broad conceptual clarity”—but Legault was not prepared to discuss any details, which, given his track record, suggests it all may just be talk. And the political advantage of such a policy as a wedge is unclear.
“The unvaccinated” designates a group that shrinks every day. Even now, after a year of vaccine drives, it’s not coterminous with obstinate conspiracy-theory-driven refusal to be vaccinated. Which helps explain why even the thrice-vaxxed, well-masked, tight-bubble civic leaders in COVID virtue often have a hard time working up real anger against those who aren’t yet playing along.
Trudeau unsure:Justin Trudeau is no surer than Wells whether this would really be a good idea, CBC reports: “Details matter. We need to know exactly what measures they’re putting forward. We need to know the terms and conditions so we can know if it’ll be effective. We’ll be looking at the details to see how exactly this will transpire.”
Not enough kids: Trudeau also said more children need to get vaccinated, Reuters reports: “We need to get more, so please ask your parents if you can get vaccinated.”
Popular idea: Brian Lilley, in the Toronto Sun, doesn’t think the unvaxxed tax is a good idea, but, he reports, a majority of voters across the country do, according to a fresh Maru poll: “Support was highest in British Columbia (64%), followed by Quebec (63%); Manitoba and Saskatchewan (61%); Ontario (58%); Atlantic Canada (57%); and Alberta (54%).”
Lineups: Whatever anyone else thinks, some unvaxxed Quebecers seem to have noticed that they could be on the hook for cash if they don’t get jabbed, CTV reports.
Logic behind it: In La Presse, Francis Vaillesexplains the reasoning for the policy idea: the unvaxed are indeed costing the health care system about a $1 million a day in Quebec (translation).
According to available data, the risk of hospitalization of recalcitrant is 7.1 times greater than that of vaccinated and their intensive care attendance rate, 13.8 times greater. Taking these proportions again, we can estimate that with their vaccination, there would have been approximately 237 fewer patients in intensive care for 28 days and 924 fewer in the ordinary unit (excluding intensive care). Knowing that a COVID stay costs $ 50,000 in intensive care and $ 15,000 otherwise, it can be estimated that the refusal of the unvaccinated to comply has cost the government $ 26 million over the past 28 days. In short, we are at nearly $ 1 million per day. That’s a lot of dough!
Against: In the Post, John Ivisonwrites that the whole thing is a bad idea, and maybe illegal to boot.
Targeting the vaccine hesitant with an additional taxation obligation is discriminatory and sure to be the subject of a future constitutional challenge. It is astonishing to think that this Liberal government is not only relaxed about the Canada Health Act being breached, and serene about blatant discrimination against a minority of the population, it is also indulgent of a regressive tax that does not make allowance for age or income.
Confusing: In Ontario, meanwhile, many people are upset with the government’s confusing new guidelines for how to handle outbreaks in schools and daycares, the Starreports.
Away from China: In the Globe, Bob Fife and Steve Chase have an interesting story about a foreign policy shift Global Affairs is contemplating: “a multibillion-dollar Indo-Pacific strategy that would shift Canada’s reliance away from China by diversifying trade and investment in Asia, the Pacific Rim and beyond while boosting security and international assistance contributions to the region.”
The strategy involves Ottawa establishing a bigger diplomatic footprint in the Indo-Pacific and contributing to infrastructure investments in the region as part of a Western effort to counter China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing is pouring US$1-trillion into building railways, ports and pipelines from Asia to Africa in what many experts regard as a state-directed effort to bolster Chinese political influence and extend its military reach. Other elements would include increasing spending on international development assistance and fighting climate change.
There’s also interesting context about the recent move to engage on trade with Taiwan, which Canadian mandarins had earlier feared might anger Beijing.
Crackdown: The Globe also a story on the Communist crackdown in Hong Kong, which is raising questions about the role of former Supreme Court of Canada chief justice Beverley McLachlin on the city’s top court. Some say she should exit the court, but she tells the Globe she is staying: “So long as the Court of Final Appeal is independent, it remains a force for justice and the rule of law – and if the critics are right, a badly needed one.”
Misinfo: In the Star, Althia Raj has a persuasive column on Erin O’Toole’s recent disingenuous attack on Steven Guilbeault.
It’s somewhat ironic the very criticism O’Toole levies — that the Liberals operate through short catchy phrases — is exactly what he then does. But what troubles me most is O’Toole is clearly aware this is not what Guilbeault intended to say. And yet, he has no qualms capitalizing on it and sharing and fuelling misinformation.
Sorry influencer: L’«influenceuse vapoteuse» Vanessa Sicotte, whose image vaping aboard a Sunwing flight to Cancun went around the world, has apologized for her role in the headline-making excursion, le Journal de Montréalreports (translation).
I admit I was kind of intrigued when François Legault, the Quebec premier who’s never short of new ideas, announced he’s thinking about levying a “health contribution”—essentially, a hefty tax—against Quebecers who aren’t vaccinated. As you’ll have heard, thinking about it is so far all Legault is doing. At the Tuesday news conference where he announced it, the premier was unable to answer basic questions: how much do you have in mind? (More than $100, he said, but… that’s all he said.) When does it start? How do you collect the levy? (Through the tax system, he said, which raises a lot of second-order questions.) Would people pay once, or for as long as they stay stubborn? And the big one: is this constitutional? “We’re working on the legal part,” Legault said cheerfully. Welcome to the new Quebec-made electric vehicle for everyone. We’re working on the engine and the battery.
But I felt like making at least a minimal case for Legault’s unvax tax. Start here: it’s a new idea. Federalism used to be a system for testing new ideas in multiple jurisdictions so the best ideas could be shared and the bad ones weeded out. And Legault’s tax, or fee, or contribution, seeks to do, directly, what a lot of governments are doing with exquisite timidity: make it clear that there are social and economic costs to this endless lockdown, and the people who are playing by the rules—masked, vaxxed, boosted, isolated, bubbled—are getting a bit tired of hearing the unvaxxed mask-around-my-chin set call themselves martyrs to freedom. Especially when the main justification for an umpteenth round of new social restrictions is an intensive-care capacity that is strained, disproportionately, by people who are proud of turning down vaccines but a bit more relaxed about accepting life-saving treatment.
What’s to be done about this? Well, on the centre-right, some people are blue-skying about a public-private mix in health care provision, which I’m afraid would represent a highly unlikely cultural revolution and which, even if it happened, would sure take time to implement. Others, like Emmanuel Macron, want an essentially never-ending, but decorously piecemeal, harrassment program against the unvaccinated. Macron used a colourful term, “emmerder,” but his plan is actually timid: if the unvaccinated are the main problem, why not face it, and them, head-on?
Early objections to Legault’s scheme are not entirely persuasive. André Picard says a tax would be punitive. Well… sure? It would be designed to be punitive. André lists several current or potential measures that limit what the unvaccinated may do, contrasting it with this levy that they would have to pay. Among the people who probably won’t find this a persuasive difference are the unvaccinated, who already feel plenty puned. Then he says “denying health care to the unvaccinated” would be “wrong-headed.” Maybe. Except it’s already happening in isolated cases in a lot of places due to defensible triage considerations.
And more to the point at hand, Legault’s fee wouldn’t deny anyone health care. It’s like a tip jar for swearing: if you do the societally disapproved thing, or decline to do the societally approved thing, you have to put a quarter in the tip jar. But if your lungs give out, you still go sailing through the front door at the local hospital. (Assuming there is one.) In fact, whenever Quebec government lawyers get around to working on the legal part, this disconnect between the fee and the health-care system might be what saves the whole scheme: at no point during any Quebecer’s interaction with the health-care system would any levy be demanded as a condition of receiving care.
So: Legault’s scheme has the virtue of broad conceptual clarity—some folks are holding everyone else back, so they should pay for the privilege—even if it’s a thicket of confusion on the details. It might even be legal. And as a notion, I fail to find it particularly horrifying. “There’s this guy running a government who wants to tax behaviour” is not exactly a man-bites-dog novelty.
But I still think Legault’s unvax tax is poorly conceived. And I won’t be at all surprised if he abandons it before implementing it.
When you think about it, it’s easy to imagine why Legault would be interested in penalizing the small number of Quebecers who refuse to be vaccinated. He’s had a pretty good few years penalizing small numbers of Quebecers. That’s at least the effect of his proposed reinforcement of Quebec’s language laws, and it’s pretty clearly the point of his law denying some public-service jobs to people who don’t dress the way Legault would have. A lot of people don’t like either law, 21 or 96, but they’re way outnumbered in Quebec, and Legault almost always prefers to side with most Quebecers against some Quebecers. There’s at least a soft populism there that can be unnerving but that also helps explain his political success.
Indeed, few things are likelier to get under Legault’s skin than the suggestion that he doesn’t know where M and Mme Average Quebecer live. There was a weird moment last year when he seemed not to know what the average rent was. He came in for some ribbing from the opposition parties. Hey, bigwig airline executive turned premier, bet you don’t know how much milk costs either. It freaked him out. “I’m proud to say I come from the very middle class,” he objected. “I still have many friends who come from the very middle class. I take care to stay close to the people and I’m very connected to reality.”
So, during a winter when he’s coming under increasing criticism for imposing unpopular and dubiously effective restrictions on everyone—Quebec’s notorious COVID curfew first among them—it’s not entirely out of character for Legault to look around for a pariah group he can dump on instead.
I just think this time he might have chosen poorly.
The classic Legault out-group is one whose characteristics are pretty set—people who weren’t raised in French, or people whose conception of their faith includes strong ideas about wardrobe. Borders around those groups aren’t porous. You can’t accidentally become an anglophone or an observant Muslim, and you don’t exit those groups without effort. So it’s easy, I think too easy, to set up a politically advantageous us-and-them dynamic.
But “the unvaccinated” designates a group that shrinks every day. Even now, after a year of vaccine drives, it’s not coterminous with obstinate conspiracy-theory-driven refusal to be vaccinated. Which helps explain why even the thrice-vaxxed, well-masked, tight-bubble civic leaders in COVID virtue often have a hard time working up real anger against those who aren’t yet playing along. Ideally, after all, we all hope we’re only months away from a world in which these distinctions will no longer be salient, because the coronavirus will—knock on wood, again—be fading from its unwelcome role as the main global influence on social organization.
Despite the recent and understandable frustrations of the fully-vaxxed, I don’t think vaccination status offers a steady, durable context for us-against-them politics of the kind that Legault plays well. Add in all the logistical challenges of applying his policy, and I won’t be at all surprised if he simply drops the idea. Here again there would be precedent.
