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Jean Charest kicked off his CPC leadership campaign in Calgary Thursday night, saying he wants to unite the party, which is “badly distracted” and “fractured,” CP reports.
Charest talked about the importance of the oil and gas industry and his willingness to stand up for pipelines in areas of the country where support for them is more tepid, such as his own. He also said he believes it’s wrong for the federal Liberal government to go ahead with its planned increase of the carbon price on April 1. “We can do a lot better,” he said.
An option: Charest launched his leadership bid in Alberta to show the province needs a better seat at the federal decision-making table, he said. Will Westerners give him a chance? In the Winnipeg Free Press, Tom Brodbeckargues that they might, because they are alienated by other options.
Many traditional conservative voters … are feeling politically homeless these days. They abhor the sharp right turn the CPC has taken and long for the days of a sensible, market-driven, fiscally conservative party that has progressive views on social issues. They can’t bring themselves to vote for a Liberal party whose leader has no regard for fiscal responsibility and whose record in office is fraught with ethical breaches. And they could never vote for the far-left New Democratic Party. Whether Charest could provide a home for those disenfranchised voters remains to be seen.
Bill 21 gamble: In the Star, Althia Raj has a well-reported column on what she sees as Charest’s calculated bet — that he can get away with opposing Bill 21 in spite of opposition in Quebec and in his caucus.
I included Charest’s opposition to the law in my column about a secret arrangement Charest and Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown have struck, and it hit a nerve in Quebec, making headlines and leaving some Conservatives stunned. “Very anxious to see what the reaction of Quebec MPs will be on Mr. Charest’s position on Bill 21,” tweeted former leader Andrew Scheer’s chief of staff Marc-André Leclerc. Under the cloak of anonymity, one Conservative MP described Charest’s position as “cheap politics.” “It’s a big deal because … Charest’s position goes against the will of the Quebec caucus,” that person explained.
Character: The Globe’sAndrew Coyne has a passionate column on the leadership race, arguing that, given the perilous state of the world, “character and judgment, experience and temperament, are suddenly at a premium.”
A great deal of time and energy will be spent in the coming campaign seeking to persuade Conservative voters of the vast ideological differences that supposedly separate the leading candidates. No doubt there are some. But frankly most of these are trivial, in the grand scheme of things. And they fade in importance in times like these. Given a choice between a candidate whose policies I prefer, but who lacked the requisite qualities of leadership, and a candidate deficient in policy but well supplied in character and judgment, I would unhesitatingly choose the latter. That is the choice that matters in this race: not between right and left, or Blue Tories versus Red, but between adolescence and adulthood.
Uphill climb: In Maclean’s, Philippe J. Fournier calculates it will be a nearly impossible task for Charest to sign up enough members to get the support he’ll need to win. “By taking into account the number of voting members in the 2017 and 2020 CPC races, we estimate that Charest and his team must recruit somewhere between 80,000 to 100,000 new members committed to support his candidacy in this race (in addition to convincing several current members to join him). Otherwise, there are simply no realistic scenarios where Charest comes out ahead of Poilievre.”
Angry Pierre: The new Maclean’s cover story is a masterly profile of Pierre Poilievre by Shannon Proudfoot, who attempts to understand what drives the champion of the anti-Trudeau mob, who has a commanding lead in the CPC leadership race. Poilievre is a “confounding cipher,” she writes.
He is highly intelligent, insightful and reflective when not on display, but snide and reductive when he is. He is a workhorse who has stuffed his brain with knowledge that is almost old-fashioned in its intricacy; but he is also a corrosively of-the-moment politician dedicated to the meme-worthy partisan kick in the teeth. He didn’t have to be the internet troll of Canadian politics, because he had ample other capabilities at his disposal, but here we are.”
Proudfoot talked to friends and colleagues, reviewed his career, and finds a razor-sharp intellect, someone “skilled at deep musings—he once single-handedly filibustered a budget debate for four days by expounding on the various clauses of the Magna Carta, the proud inheritance of the British judicial system and that time Lord Halifax almost became Britain’s wartime prime minister.” On the other hand, he is always ready to plunge into “Skippyland,” a place beyond logic, which Proudfoot ultimately struggles to understand.
He could be the leader of the Opposition forcing an increasingly insular and incoherent Liberal government to answer for itself, with all of the incisiveness he could bring to the task, but one-third of the amped-up “No, eff you” partisan spite. Instead, the Poilievre who is available to us is the one who snarls ceaselessly about Justinflation, lobs bombs just to bask in the glow of the blast and throws in his lot with protesters terrorizing ordinary citizens because—well, frankly, it’s hard to fathom why.
Ready to go: Patrick Brown will launch his leadership bid in Brampton on Sunday, the Postreports. Earlier this week, Brown reached a settlement in his defamation lawsuit against CTV National News for publishing allegations accusing him of sexual misconduct.
Lewis sued: Leslyn Lewis is being sued by former campaign manager John Mykytyshyn, who claims he was not fully paid for his work on her 2020 leadership campaign, the Starreports.
Big speech: Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to virtually address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday, CTV reports, a week after speaking to the British parliament. Government House Leader Mark Holland has written the Speaker to organize a session, since the House will not be sitting: “This would be an opportunity for Canadians to hear directly from President Zelenskyy about the urgent and dire situation facing the people of Ukraine,” Holland wrote.
No to no fly: Justin Trudeau tells CTV that he was forced to deny Zelenskyy’s request for a no-fly zone, for fear of triggering an escalation: “It is something that is heartbreaking. To have to say we can do so many things to support, but the risk of escalation, the risk of spreading… of involving NATO in a direct conflict if we send NATO planes over Ukraine to shoot down Russian planes. We can do an awful lot and we’re doing everything we can. But we can’t do that.”
Convoy or coup? Trudeau’s national security and intelligence adviser said Thursday that the leaders of the Freedom Convoy were bent on overthrowing the government, the Globereports.
Jody Thomas told an Ottawa security conference there is no doubt: “The occupation of Ottawa was dug in. They had supply chains. They had organization. They had funding coming in from across Canada but also other countries. The people who organized that protest – and there were several factions … there is no doubt – came to overthrow the government.”
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Red Tory team: Althia Rajreports in the Star that Patrick Brown, who is to declare his candidacy Sunday, has forged a non-aggression pact with Jean Charest, who is to launch his candidacy in Calgary today.
The men have been friends for more than 25 years. Brown credits his involvement with the Conservatives to Charest, whom he met as a teenager while visiting his aunt, Charest’s next-door neighbour in North Hatley, Que. The two have spoken at length about the leadership race. I’m told to expect neither will say a bad word about the other — a non-aggression pact, if you will — and that they will “publicly” help one another. Their goals are similarly aligned: a united but more inclusive party that represents the country. Each anticipates the other’s supporters will mark him as their second choice on the party’s ranked ballots, and they may make that expectation clear when members start receiving their ballots this summer.
Suit settled: Patrick Brown’s path to the leadership was cleared somewhat on Wednesday when he reached an agreement with CTV to settle a lawsuit over a 2018 story about allegations of sexual misconduct, the Postreports.
On Monday, CTV National News signed an agreement with Brown indicating that they “have resolved their legal dispute.” CTV also expressed regret for inaccuracies in its reporting that cost Brown his job as Ontario PC leader four years ago. “Key details provided to CTV for the story were factually incorrect and required correction. CTV National News regrets including those details in the story and any harm this may have caused to Mr. Brown,” said the CTV statement.
CTV has a story on the settlement that points out no money changed hands.
Unfortunate: In iPolitics, Michelle Rempel Garner has a column saying CTV’s error set women back.
Soon: Brown tells the Globe he is “going to make a decision very soon” about entering the race
Trouble ahead?Le Journal de Montréalreports that Charest is opposed to Quebec’s Bill 21, which outlaws religious symbols, which could pose problems with francophone voters he would need in Quebec, where the law is popular.
Paul Wells has an insightful column reflecting on the upcoming contest between Charest and Pierre Poilievre, with a good refresher on Charest’s long career, which has featured some ups and downs.
Charest and Poilievre will ask Conservatives two different questions. Charest’s is: Are you tired of losing yet? Poilievre’s is: Are you tired of leaders who will say anything to win, and then don’t even win? Just about everyone I know who thinks Conservatism has gone downhill since Joe Clark retired is rooting for Charest. The ones who wish Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole hadn’t bothered to pretend that they cared about climate change are with Poilievre. I feel comfortable saying that among current Conservative members, the we-miss-Joe crowd are outnumbered by the climate-change-is-Davos-socialism crowd.
Long race: In the Post, Chris Selley has a thoughtful column on the CPC race, which he thinks needs to be long in order for the party to get beyond “cheap sloganeering” from Team Poilievre.
Aid to Ukraine: In Berlin on Wednesday, Justin Trudeau spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to send more military equipment: “We have obtained a number of specialized equipment, including cameras used in drones.” Zelensky has accepted an invitation to address the House of Commons, the PMO said.
Mr. Trudeau made the announcement in Berlin on Wednesday following a meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Prime Minister also spoke at a security forum where he said he “unquestionably” believes Ukraine will win the war. “The question is how long its going to take, how we manage to get there with the least amount of loss possible,” Mr. Trudeau said.
Foreign fighters: CBC’s Murray Brewster has an interesting story on Canadian veterans who have gone to Ukraine to fight, including an interview with a Canadian sniper who recently crossed over from Poland.
“I want to help them. It’s as simple as that,” said Wali, who also did a stint as a foreign fighter with the Kurdish forces which battled Islamic State extremists in northern Iraq several years ago. “I have to help because there are people here being bombarded just because they want to be European and not Russian.”
Maple Leaf battalion? A Ukrainian government source tells the Post that so many Canadians have shown up in Ukraine that they have their own battalion.
50 years later: Lawrence Martin, who wrote a good book about Soviet hockey, has a thought-provoking column in the Globe on the long history of Canada-Soviet relations, pegged on the 1972 Canada-Russia series. He concludes that the bridge that hockey built is now in ruins.
Kenney in trouble: A new poll from Think HQ Public Affairs shows Jason Kenney might lose the leadership vote coming up in Red Deer, Don Braidwrites in the Calgary Herald. The polls shows 61 per cent of Albertans want a new leader for the UCP, but only members vote.
Diehard party loyalists are the most likely to pay the fee and vote. The core of the UCP could yet hold for Kenney. “It really depends on who shows up in Red Deer,” (pollster Marc) Henry says. “There are segments of the party, voters and current members, where he enjoys more support, although it’s not a majority.”
Throughout his political career, Jean Charest was never known to shy away from challenges: From taking over the reins of the decimated federal Progressive Conservatives after the 1993 near-wipeout, to acting as one of the main faces of the “No” camp in the 1995 Quebec referendum, to reluctantly leaving federal politics to face off against then-highly popular Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard in the 1998 Quebec general election. (Charest lost that election, but won the popular vote. We learned later on that it had put a serious dent in Bouchard’s motivation to push Quebec towards a third referendum on secession.)
And yet, the 2022 CPC leadership race could very well be the most challenging task of his career. It could also be an impossible task.
A new poll from Abacus Data shows early glimpses of the colossal undertaking ahead for Charest. Abacus was in the field in late February asking its panel about positive and negative impressions of CPC leadership hopefuls. Among the general electorate, Charest has similar country-wide numbers as leadership favourite Pierre Poilievre: 16 per cent hold a positive impression of Charest (to Poilievre’s 15 per cent) and both candidates have 21 per cent of negative impression. Jean Charest has marginally higher notoriety than Poilievre.
It is worth noting that Charest’s negative impressions are heavily concentrated in Quebec. His years in power at the National Assembly and his decade-long fight against the province’s sovereigntist parties has definitely left a mark on wide segments of the Quebec electorate. Therefore, while the CPC has tried on several occasions to appeal to Bloc Québécois voters in recent cycles (and mostly failed), the chances that it succeeds in doing so with Charest as leader are slim. Nonetheless, Poilievre’s Quebec numbers are nothing to gloat about: only 8 per cent of positive impressions against 27 per cent negative.
Charest and Poilievre hold similar positive/negative numbers in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, but Poilievre has a significant higher notoriety than Charest in the West. In fact, Poilievre has both higher positives and higher negatives than Charest west of the Ontario-Manitoba border (see poll details and analysis from Abacus Data CEO David Coletto here).
Although these numbers aren’t without interest, they do not tell us much—neither about the potential outcome of the leadership race nor about the current landscape within the CPC, as it is not the general electorate that will cast votes for the leadership, but CPC members. While a poll exclusively of CPC members has not yet been made public, Abacus did isolate results from CPC supporters out of its national sample.
As you can see below, Poilievre jumps ahead of the pack by a significant margin:
Among CPC supporters, Poilievre holds a net plus-22 (33 per cent positive, 11 per cent negative), compared to a minus-3 for Jean Charest (17 per cent positive, 20 per cent negative). And although one can assume that Charest’s negatives are once again concentrated in Quebec, support for the CPC in Quebec still lingers under the 20 per cent mark in current polling averages, so it most likely does not weigh heavily in the balance.
New polling from Léger this morning points in the same general direction as Abacus. To the question: “Which of the following people would be the best leader for the Conservative Party of Canada?”, Poilievre and Charest are neck and neck among all voters. But Poilievre takes a massive four-to-one lead over Charest among CPC voters:
Jean Charest is the preferred candidate of only 10 per cent of CPC voters in this sample, statistically tied with Peter MacKay (who has not announced his candidacy). Patrick Brown gets 3 per cent and Leslyn Lewis, 2 per cent.
Again, this does not necessarily depict the actual landscape of where CPC members stand on the leadership, but it does give us a rough idea of the magnitude of the vector pointing from the general electorate to CPC supporters to CPC members. By taking into account the number of voting members in the 2017 and 2020 CPC races, we estimate that Charest and his team must recruit somewhere between 80,000 to 100,000 new members committed to support his candidacy in this race (in addition to convincing several current members to join him). Otherwise, there are simply no realistic scenarios where Charest comes out ahead of Poilievre.
Since the deadline to sign up new members has been set for June 3, it means Charest must recruit about one thousand new members per day, everyday, until then.
Even more daunting for Charest is the fact that Haldimand-Norfolk MP Leslyn Lewis has also joined the race. Lewis had over-performed expectations in the 2020 leadership race, finishing in a strong third place behind eventual winner Erin O’Toole and Peter Mackay. Lewis’ supporters overwhelmingly come from the social conservative wing of the CPC and, as such, would be much less likely to support Jean Charest in a second or third ballot, should it even get that far. It is no secret that social conservatives in the CPC stand much closer to the populist wing than the progressive wing of the party.
So, does Charest stand even a chance? While his mere presence in this race could make the leadership campaign more compelling for many political observers, early data suggests this appears to be an insurmountable task. His main appeal to CPC members will most likely focus on electability, that he stands a better chance of beating Justin Trudeau in a general election than does Poilievre. A first poll from Léger comparing voting intentions with either Charest or Poilievre as CPC leader actually shows both candidates on near-identical levels nationally:
Considering the poll’s uncertainty, the only statistically significant difference between the two sets of numbers is the PPC support: it balloons to 7 per cent with Charest as CPC leader, and falls to 3 per cent if Poilievre leads the CPC. (As IRPP/Policy Options editor-in-chief Les Perreaux noted on Twitter: “[Charest] has been barely visible for 10 years and is nearly tied with the frontrunner.”) Yet, if Charest wants to sell his own electability, this first poll will probably not cut it.
The available data thus far shows that Charest’s odds of winning the leadership are extremely long. While it was never a wise idea to bet against Jean Charest during his past political career, we shall see soon whether he can beat those near-impossible odds.
The bellowing honks of freedom nearly drowned out Pierre Poilievre’s voice as he stood on a frigid overpass in late January, cheering the truck convoy on its way to lay siege to downtown Ottawa. Wearing a Canada Goose parka and aviator sunglasses, with his normally shellacked side-part blustered into an unrecognizable tuft by the wind, he grinned into a video camera. Poilievre rhymed off an expansive array of grievances he said the so-called “Freedom Convoy” protesters were battling, in addition to vaccine mandates: high grocery prices, small businesses in peril, depressed and isolated teenagers, a political and media elite that ignores anyone they don’t like. Poilievre, a long-time Conservative MP, wore a pair of puffy, red-and-white maple leaf mittens that gave him a soft cartoon quality weirdly at odds with his hard-edged talking points. It was like watching Mickey Mouse shout angry populist slogans.
Nearly every one of the affronts to freedom that Poilievre listed came from pandemic restrictions enacted by the provinces and not Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberal government, but that was very much beside the point. “Freedom, not fear. Truckers, not Trudeau,” he hollered over the horns that would soon torment Ottawa residents for days and sleepless nights.
The line of trucks Poilievre was applauding would, over the coming weeks, be joined by thousands of others. Some would come and go as weekend warriors, while others would shut down international border crossings across the country, hamstringing massive sectors of the economy. But the most zealous protesters would occupy a sprawling territory surrounding Parliament Hill for weeks before a massive police operation finally forced them out.
Still, Poilievre refused to condemn the protest as a whole, slicing and dicing his argument to maintain that he supported anyone fighting for their rights and freedoms peacefully, while anyone who engaged in violence, vandalism or obstruction should be punished. “I’m proud of the truckers and I stand with them,” he said two weeks into the occupation.
The convoy arrived in town with a ludicrous plan to remove Trudeau from office but it was Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole who got ousted, after his tepid response to the protesters sharpened the knife that a large faction of the Tory caucus already had at the ready. And so, in the midst of the protest mayhem, Poilievre released a video announcing “I’m running for prime minister,” immediately becoming the candidate to beat in the sudden leadership race-—the party’s third in five years. “Together, we will make Canadians the freest people on earth,” he said. “With freedom to build a business without red tape or heavy tax; freedom to keep the fruits of your labour and share them with loved ones and neighbours; freedom from the invisible thief of inflation; freedom to raise your kids with your values; freedom to make your own health and vaccine choices; freedom to speak without fear; and freedom to worship God in your own way.”
Poilievre speaks during question period in the House of Commons in May 2018 (Chris Wattie/Reuters)
Poilievre—“Skippy” to fans and foes alike, after he was assigned the nickname as a very young MP—has been one of the main characters in the House of Commons since he was elected in 2004, largely thanks to his rhetorical skills and his gleeful compulsion to take up absolutely any partisan fight and go to the wall with it. He has been described in media stories over the years as “probably one of the more generally infuriating individuals on Parliament Hill” and someone who “savagely attack[s] opponents without regard to nuance, or even the basic facts.”
He’s also a confounding cipher. He is highly intelligent, insightful and reflective when not on display, but snide and reductive when he is. He is a workhorse who has stuffed his brain with knowledge that is almost old-fashioned in its intricacy; but he is also a corrosively of-the-moment politician dedicated to the meme-worthy partisan kick in the teeth. He didn’t have to be the internet troll of Canadian politics, because he had ample other capabilities at his disposal, but here we are. Poilievre has been the spiritual leader of the Canadian conservative movement, if not the party’s leader, for some time. Now he’s looking to make it official.
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Poilievre (he pronounces it “paul-ee-EV”) was born in 1979 and grew up in Preston Manning’s Calgary Southwest riding, later represented by Stephen Harper. As a kid, he was a competitive diver, wrestler and hockey player. Early in his life, he developed political beliefs in personal responsibility and small government that remained almost eerily consistent for decades. “I had a teenage unwed mother who had just lost her mother when I was born, and it was two schoolteachers from Saskatchewan who adopted me and raised me and basically gave me a life,” he says. “So I have always believed that it is voluntary generosity among family and community that are the greatest social safety net that we can ever have. That’s kind of my starting point.”
(Photograph by Blair Gable)
He grew up in an Alberta he saw as ravaged by Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program. Created in the early 1980s in response to oil shocks that drove prices through the roof in the previous decade, the program aimed to regulate oil and gas prices and free Canada from dependence on foreign oil while increasing federal revenues. But it enraged oil-rich Alberta and Saskatchewan, seeding Western alienation and the political awakening of more than one generation of Canadian conservatives. Poilievre’s parents didn’t lose their teaching jobs, but he says his family had to move because they couldn’t hold onto their house amid the sky-high interest rates of the era. “I didn’t understand politics or anything, I just remember it being a really stressful time for a lot of people,” he says. “And as I grew older and I’ve learned more about how that happened and why, it left a mark on me.” These experiences and the beliefs they instilled found political shape in the Reform Party values that reverberated through Alberta in his formative years, bringing Poilievre to partisan politics at a preternaturally young age.
At 17, he attended the 1996 Reform convention, where he proved to be irresistible journalistic catnip: an eager partisan not yet old enough to vote. “I’m very concerned about the financial state of the country and think they’re the only ones who can fix it,” he told the local paper. While still in high school, he wrote a letter to the Calgary Herald eviscerating the Liberal government’s hike of Canada Pension Plan premiums.
It was a couple of years later that Rob Huebert, an associate professor of political science, encountered Poilievre in a third-year strategic studies class he was teaching at the University of Calgary, where Poilievre was studying international relations. Poilievre finished fourth in a class of 60. “He’s the type of student that stands out,” Huebert says. “They have that essence about them: ‘I don’t quite know where you’re going to end up, but you’re gonna end up somewhere and people are gonna notice you.’ ” He recalls Poilievre as courteous, never showy or combative, generous with his time and short on ego. Huebert sees Poilievre’s political career as a continuation of the undergrad he knew: not a partisan pit bull, but the kid who always knew how to ask the questions that got to the heart of the issue.
While he was in university, Poilievre was one of 10 finalists to win $10,000 in an “As Prime Minister” essay contest. He told the student newspaper that he cranked out the 2,500-word essay, entitled “Building Canada through freedom,” in a single all-nighter and mailed it off right before the deadline. “Although we Canadians seldom recognize it, the most important guardian of our living standards is freedom,” he wrote. “The freedom to earn a living and share the fruits of our labour with loved ones, the freedom to build personal prosperity through risk taking and a strong work ethic, the freedom of thought and speech, the freedom to make personal choices, and the collective freedom of citizens to govern their own affairs democratically.” That argument is nearly identical to the pitch Poilievre would make more than 20 years later when he announced he was running for real-life prime minister.
In his early 20s, Poilievre was one of the key young activists running Stockwell Day’s campaign to lead the Reform Party’s successor, the Canadian Alliance, and working the phones to drum up donations. They dubbed themselves “Fight Club,” and Poilievre described their phone bank data as their “ammunition” and the phones as “our guns.” A couple of years later, when Day offered him a job as an assistant in his Ottawa office, Poilievre asked his mother, Marlene, for advice. “You better go there and get this out of your system,” she told him. “After the next election, come back here.” But Ottawa proved to be a one-way ticket out of Calgary. In the 2004 federal election, he ran in Nepean-Carleton (since renamed Carleton), a sprawling suburban and rural riding southwest of Ottawa, under the newly united Conservative banner that Stephen Harper knitted together out of the Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. Poilievre was running against the Liberal defence minister, David Pratt, and he’d figured he stood a chance, but told his parents he expected to lose so they wouldn’t be disappointed. He ended up besting Pratt by 3,700 votes, thanks to the combined Alliance and PC vote.
As the candidate for Carleton in Ottawa, Poilievre talks with residents ahead of the 2019 federal election (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)
The day after the election, with Paul Martin’s Liberal government reduced to a minority and Poilievre’s newborn party holding the balance of power, CPAC convened a TV panel to unpack the still-cooling election results. It included Ed Broadbent, former leader of the federal NDP, just returned as an MP after 15 years of political retirement; David McGuinty, a new Liberal MP from what passes for a dynastic Ontario political family; and Poilievre, the youngest member of the House of Commons. He was 25 years old, still padded about the jaw with baby fat, wearing a slightly too-big suit jacket; if you ever wanted to see a politician Cabbage Patch Kid, there he was.
“Pierre Poilievre is being painted as a bit of a giant killer,” the CPAC host said by way of introduction, owing to his defeat of a sitting cabinet minister. Poilievre sailed in, cheerfully chippy, but nervous too. He laid out the metrics by which his party was the true winner, if you really thought about it, and the many ways in which the Liberals were corrupt and ruinous. We’ll play ball if the government behaves better, he allowed, “but you’ll also see a vigorous defender of taxpayers in the Conservative party.” He punctuated the statement with a gavel-on-a-table gesture that was touchingly hammy.
“Well, who’s against that?” Broadbent said with an incredulous grin, before vilifying the Tories’ spendy campaign. Poilievre instantly pivoted to accusing the former NDP leader of propping up the Liberals. “I wonder if some of the machinations are already working, because it looks as though Ed Broadbent, a great hero of the Parliamentary tradition, is already stepping up to the plate to defend the Prime Minister,” he purred. Broadbent’s eyes widened ever so slightly. Poilievre no longer looked nervous; he was smiling like someone having an absolutely fantastic time.
This primordial version of Poilievre is as remarkable for the elements that haven’t changed at all as for the things that have. There he was already fully formed as the Skippy everyone would come to know and love/hate, stamping every square on his partisan talking-point bingo card, crediting his opponents with not one ounce of sense or decency, crafting every exchange as an invitation to sort it out behind the bike racks after class. But that chubby-cheeked Poilievre was different too, his goofy lack of polish sanding off some of the sharper edges. It was like he was wearing a Halloween mask of his own face, with his future self behind the eye holes.
In the House of Commons, Poilievre accumulated a string of controversies that hinged on youthful and partisan intemperance. A mic picked him up hissing “f–k you guys” in a committee meeting; he blamed an “extremist element in the Liberal party” for opposition to extending post-9/11 anti-terror measures; he accused the chief electoral office of being power-hungry. “Are we really getting value for all of this money, and is more money really going to solve the problem?” he asked of compensation for residential school survivors, just hours before Harper was set to deliver a formal apology for the schools.
The impulse running through all of this was that anyone who attempted to thwart the Conservatives was an enemy who must be hacked off at the knees. And if Poilievre had simply toiled away earnestly as a young backbencher, it’s unlikely he would have carved out a name for himself as early or enduringly as he did. Harper offered a tacit benediction of his attack-dog talents when he named him parliamentary secretary to the Treasury Board president and then to the Prime Minister, before appointing him to cabinet as minister of state for democratic reform and, eventually, minister of employment and social development.
John Baird was Treasury Board president and Poilievre his parliamentary secretary when they worked together to shepherd through the Federal Accountability Act to protect civil servant whistleblowers. Baird was impressed by his younger colleague’s ability to negotiate dozens of compromises to win NDP support and pass the legislation. “He showed a real willingness to work across the aisle and get things done,” he says.
Poilievre arrives for a Conservative caucus meeting in Ottawa last November (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Baird was also responsible for Poilievre acquiring the nickname “Skippy.” In 2006, the Harper government was being grilled about a homeless support program called the Supporting Communities Partnership Initiative, which was known by the acronym SCPI, pronounced “Skippy.” Baird stood up one day in question period and barked, “Mr. Speaker, I want to be very clear . . . this government has no intention of cutting SCPI.” With Poilievre sitting directly behind him in the House, Baird says that somehow the quotable quote turned into an inside joke that landed Poilievre the nickname. The funny thing is that, if you watch the tape of the exchange, it’s obvious that Baird, Poilievre and other colleagues nearby are killing themselves laughing before Baird even delivers the line. The origins remain mysterious, but Skippy abides.
When the Trudeau Liberals swept to power and the Conservatives moved into opposition, Poilievre became a smaller presence in caucus, quieter and more isolated, deploying his carefully rehearsed blows in QP and then hustling out. He edged his Liberal challenger by just 1,800 votes in that 2015 election. “One could say he had a near-death experience,” says one Conservative source who spoke on background. “And he just dedicated himself to going door-to-door every single day.”
Poilievre is known as an active constituent MP and a willing guest at fundraising events for other MPs, which is key to cultivating the support that wins you the leadership. He also treats door-knocking—usually the onerous, shoe-leather drudge work of politics—as a free instant focus group where he can hone his messages to see what fires people up or makes eyes glaze over. Poilievre adores language. He is often at his most engaging and insightful when rifling through the great speeches of history for the bits he most admires: Churchill’s choice of language you can see and feel; Lincoln’s logical and orderly structure. In this mode, Poilievre can be astonishingly bookish and thoughtful—or in his other gear, he can sneer “Justinflation” so many times across the aisle that everyone within earshot mourns the day they were born.
There was a time when ordinary citizens would comb Hansard—the complete oral record of the House of Commons—or wade through a big political speech for their own education, Poilievre’s caucus colleague Mark Strahl says. But that is not who we are now. “We’re in an Instagram—instant—generation and moment in politics, where it doesn’t matter what you say if no one’s listening. And Pierre gets people to listen,” he says. “I know his critics will point out that sometimes when you do things that way, maybe the sound bite sacrifices some of the nuance of the conversation, but at least the conversation is being had with Pierre.” Strahl depicts his colleague as a sort of Don Draper of conservative politics, preternaturally gifted at finding just the right catchy phrase to lob: carbon tax cover-up, vaccine vendetta, trust fund twins.
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Now, Poilievre seeks to lead a party that is at war with itself. In order for the Conservatives to dethrone Trudeau and his Liberal government, they have to broaden their appeal to win over swing voters and suburbanites, and they cannot turn off Canada’s big cities. All of that means edging toward the centre, or at least not constantly peacocking their right flank. But the most motivated faction of the Tory voting base and party membership—and a large chunk of the caucus that turfed O’Toole—finds that unsatisfying. Poilievre, on the other hand, is the walking, talking partisan itch that feels so good to scratch. For every moment when O’Toole equivocated on an issue or displayed centrist inclinations, enraging the “true blue” base that propelled him to the leadership, Poilievre was out there snarling exactly what they wanted to hear. But Poilievre is the dessert that is so delicious in the moment, not the vegetables that will help the party grow.
He had a campaign ready to go for the 2020 Conservative leadership race that ultimately crowned O’Toole, but backed out right before he was to make his official launch, citing family considerations. (In 2017, he married Anaida Galindo, a former Senate staffer; they now have a three-year-old daughter named Valentina, and their son, Cruz, was born in September.) Baird was set to chair that campaign, and Jenni Byrne, a stalwart Conservative operative—and Poilievre’s long-ago girlfriend—would also hold a senior role. Both will now work on this campaign.
The Conservative base—and its rightmost flank at that—is clearly where Poilievre has decided his political bread is buttered now. “I think he’s become the voice of the base,” says Strahl. But for a clever, strategic thinker like him, it’s a significant shift in his assessment of the landscape. In 2006, talking to Paul Wells for his book Right Side Up, Poilievre argued that people misunderstood the strategy of Stephen Harper. “Everyone thinks he seduced the centre,” Poilievre said. “It’s actually the way he tamed the right.” Harper’s true victory was moving the party to a centrist position that was “acceptable to mainstream people” without raising “a peep” of dissatisfaction from the right, he said.
This is not the project Poilievre is working on. His belief in small government, fiscal restraint and personal responsibility is clearly bone-deep. But he’s now fixated on an edgily populist approach that revolves around dismantling the “elites” gobbling up the money and liberty of ordinary Canadians, the powerful who “clamp down” on anyone who disagrees with them, and governments using the permission slip of the pandemic to satisfy their lust to control citizens. Asked about the sorcerer’s apprentice problem—what if you conjure something dark that you can’t control, like people who decide to take real-world action on the things that anger them?—Poilievre bristles. “You seem to be suggesting that I shouldn’t be criticizing the government because someone else might get angry about that and do something that I don’t want them to do,” he says.
Poilievre strenuously disputes being especially combative or partisan—a case he buttresses by taking swipes at his opponents like someone struck his knee with a rubber hammer. He portrays himself in question period like a meticulous lawyer building up a case, slicing through the rhetorical posturing and partisan barbs in a relentless attempt to pry pure, simple facts out of a government that refuses to relinquish them. “The reason that some people find it so devastating is because the facts are devastating,” he says.
Accompanied by his wife, Anaida, and daughter, Valentina, Poilievre attends the Parliamentarian of the Year awards in 2018 (Photograph by Blair Gable)
He maintains that his best moments, and the ones that draw the most interest and eyeballs on his busy social media channels (Twitter: 314,000 followers; Facebook: 499,000 followers; YouTube: 205,000 subscribers), are his long, intricate treatises on, say, the history of money or whether we are still capable of the sprawling national ambition that built the Canadian Pacific Railway. Poilievre is skilled at deep musings—he once single-handedly filibustered a budget debate for four days by expounding on the various clauses of the Magna Carta, the proud inheritance of the British judicial system and that time Lord Halifax almost became Britain’s wartime prime minister. But if you mentioned his name to 100 people, chances are 99 of them would identify the hard partisan right hook as his calling card, rather than the learned dissertation.
In the House, debate etiquette functions a bit like a hockey game, in that people volunteer if they’re prepared to fight, and it’s considered gauche to go after a rookie or anyone who keeps their head down and their nose clean. As much as Poilievre can drive people around the bend, heavy hitters from the other parties seem to genuinely enjoy watching the master s–t disturber at work. “For as much as he is always putting the elbow in your face, he can be likable and charming,” says the NDP’s Charlie Angus. Everything Poilievre does comes with a self-aware wink and a nudge, and he can be genuinely funny. During that four-day filibuster, the purpose of which was to badger Trudeau into appearing before the justice committee to answer questions about the SNC-Lavalin scandal, Poilievre at one point smirked, “I know there have been many times when the Prime Minister would have given a great fortune to make me stop speaking. I am offering him the chance right now to do that for free, in the sense that the truth will set him free.” Liberal Kevin Lamoureux, another MP who loves partisan fisticuffs, coaches his colleagues to simply ignore Poilievre because heckling only winds him up.
However, there is a strange void beneath Poilievre’s gamesmanship. It’s not about his sincerity of belief—he could hardly be accused of not really meaning the things he’s been hollering in letters to the editor since he was a teenager—but rather the bigger picture. For someone who is so skilled and devoted to winning every single partisan battle, what is the war for? Angus finds this aspect of Poilievre confounding: he’s so good at the game of politics, but to what end? “Pierre just never seems to want to go there,” he says. “He prefers lighting a house on fire and seeing what happens.” Poilievre, for his part, explains his role in politics in near-mythological terms. “To keep the commoners the masters and the crown the servant,” he says. “That is the only purpose of Parliament.”
Poilievre’s partisan instincts are part of the problem: his reflexive defensiveness of anything that lines up with the home team or his own political advantage, and his equally knee-jerk denunciation of anything associated with the enemy creates an essential hollowness, if not outright hypocrisy.
At the height of the Freedom Convoy, when Poilievre was steadfastly refusing to acknowledge that the whole project was inherently destructive or unlawful, a clip suddenly made the rounds that was almost too perfectly symmetrical to be believed. Two years earlier, when activists blocked railways and pipelines to protest a natural gas pipeline running across Indigenous territory in British Columbia, Poilievre appeared on CBC and applied his trademark rhetorical gifts to arguing that the blockaders were impeding other people’s lives and needed to be dealt with by the law. “You have the right to swing your fist, but that freedom stops at the tip of someone else’s nose,” he said. That’s an entirely reasonable proposition, and it somehow stopped being true when the blockaders were in downtown Ottawa blasting their horns against vaccine mandates and assorted other Liberal-related injuries, because that served the purposes of Poilievre and his party.
Talking to this would-be prime minister at length instead of watching him on the political stage is compelling and disorienting at the same time. Poilievre’s answers are slow and deliberative, and there’s a depth of insight that’s uncommon on Parliament Hill. You get the sense of a human being in there who really believes many of the ideas he advances. He’s funny, occasionally self-deprecating. He is, in short, impressive and likable.
But if you even brush up against the electrified buzzer of a partisan issue, a trapdoor opens in the floor, plunging you into Skippyland. Here, the intelligence becomes a switchblade, the complexity of thought a dust storm in which you can’t find the point you were sure you had. The Pavlovian partisan thing is frustrating because nothing useful or new is going to come from that conversation. What really stings is the gap between the two, the what-might-have-been quality to it all.
It’s hard to imagine a facet of Canadian politics and public life that would not benefit from having Poilievre’s straight-up smarts applied constructively to it, instead of wielded like a belt sander. He could be the leader of the Opposition forcing an increasingly insular and incoherent Liberal government to answer for itself, with all of the incisiveness he could bring to the task, but one-third of the amped-up “No, eff you” partisan spite. Instead, the Poilievre who is available to us is the one who snarls ceaselessly about Justinflation, lobs bombs just to bask in the glow of the blast and throws in his lot with protesters terrorizing ordinary citizens because—well, frankly, it’s hard to fathom why.
Poilievre is very, very bright, a clever strategic thinker, and at some point he decided to bury one of those versions of himself and make the other his ride-or-die, because that seemed like a more certain path to political success. Maybe he was right. And that is all of our loss.
This profile appears in print in the April 2022 issue of Maclean’s magazine with the headline, “The ringleader.” Subscribe to the monthly print magazine here.
In a world whose horizons have shrunk to the length of a TikTok video, Jean Charest’s career is still measured in decades.
His Parti Libéral du Québec—sorry, that’s what it said on the buses—lost the 2012 election in one of the softest landings a defeated party ever managed, only 33,000 votes and four seats behind the Parti Québécois. In the decade since he’s been a fixer, helper and deal-maker with what his law firm calls “a network of global relationships.” On Thursday in Calgary, of all places, he’ll announce his candidacy for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Of Canada. His main rival mistrusts networks and globes. This should be fun.
Charest’s 2012 defeat capped almost a decade as premier of Quebec, a province not conspicuously preoccupied with the concerns of Calgarians. That decade will be the object of much debate from here to September. For now I’ll say only that personally I date the beginning of Montreal’s economic comeback from about 2003, but that it wasn’t always lovely.
The decade before Charest’s 2003 election win was the hardest in his career: he was forever in the spotlight but consistently outside the circles where real power is exercised. In 1993 the Progressive Conservative party he didn’t yet even lead lost an election as badly as it’s possible to lose, falling from 156 seats to two. Charest’s curse, that year at least, was to be one of the two. He battled back, played a prominent role in the 1995 Quebec secession referendum, led the PCs to a slightly better result in 1997, and was bundled off to lead the Quebec Liberals in 1998, pretty much against his will. We’re talking fingernail scratch marks down the length of the 417. There will naturally be debate this year about whether a longtime provincial Liberal can be a federal Conservative. In 1998 the questions ran all the other way.
The decade before 1993 was our man’s political bildungsroman. Charest rode to Ottawa as a 26-year-old on the Mulroney wave of 1984, talked his way into cabinet, talked his way back out, then finally back in. Sturdy general training in promise, regret and redemption.
What can we learn from this reverse decade-at-a-time biography? Maybe this: Nothing worse can happen to John James “Jean” Charest than has already happened, many times. He’s lost big and small, he’s chosen badly and got caught, he’s had to swallow himself whole and apparently developed a taste for it. I never thought he’d get back into politics. The best explanation for it is that politics never got out of him.
Surely he’s a long shot. Right at the top of my list of people least likely to win a federal Conservative leadership, it says “Liberals.” Second on the list is “Progressive Conservatives.” Charest’s long record of success won’t persuade many. A lot of it wasn’t success, and much of the success was won in precincts today’s Conservatives would rather avoid. He is catnip mostly to people who feel increasingly estranged from the modern Conservative Party. Here’s Mike Coates helping lead Charest’s campaign. Here’s Coates losing a riding nomination battle to Cheryl Gallant. “I sent Jean a note the other day,” a senator told me. “I said, ‘Your country needs you but your party doesn’t deserve you.’” Senators who crack wise may not represent a sturdy base of support in the party.
Charest will enter a crowded field: Leslyn Lewis, Roman Baber, Patrick Brown, a few others. The acknowledged frontrunner is Pierre Poilievre, who is already running against Charest and Justin Trudeau as though they were working together in a coalition government. His chosen angle of attack — that Charest increased taxes — is surprising, given that he could have said Charest is a Liberal or that he worked for Huawei. But Poilievre doesn’t often say the most outrageous thing he can think of saying. He says the thing next to the most outrageous thing, in such a way that the person thinking the most outrageous thing will think Pierre Poilievre is on his side.
Charest and Poilievre will ask Conservatives two different questions. Charest’s is: Are you tired of losing yet? Poilievre’s is: Are you tired of leaders who will say anything to win, and then don’t even win? Just about everyone I know who thinks Conservatism has gone downhill since Joe Clark retired is rooting for Charest. The ones who wish Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole hadn’t bothered to pretend that they cared about climate change are with Poilievre. I feel comfortable saying that among current Conservative members, the we-miss-Joe crowd are outnumbered by the climate-change-is-Davos-socialism crowd.
The confrontation between the two men is a moment of considerable danger for a party that did not exist, in its current form, before 2003. Its only winning leader was Stephen Harper. Harper worked hard, for little credit, to ensure Progressive Conservatives like Peter MacKay and Lawrence Cannon could feel reasonably comfortable in his party. The basis of Poilievre’s appeal is that he doesn’t work hard to make anyone feel comfortable. Progressive Conservatives will be sensitive to insult. And wondering whether they need to put up with it. A party so recently put together isn’t sure of staying together.
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Leslyn Lewisannounced Tuesday that she is running for the CPC leadership, the Starreports. She is the second candidate to join the race, after Pierre Poilievre. Jean Charest is to announce in Calgary Thursday. Lewis, who led a surprisingly strong campaign in the 2020 leadership race, is a social conservative with a large base of support.
The video she included is an excerpt of her speech in the House of Commons last month on the invocation of the Emergencies Act by the Liberal government, a controversial move framed as the only way at that point to end a three-week long protest in Ottawa. Lewis attacked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, saying he refused to listen to anyone who didn’t share his opinion and was undermining democracy by using the law. “Guarding our freedoms and upholding our democracy means we need to have compassionate hearts and listening ears,” she said.
Brown also: CBC reports that Patrick Brown will likely join the fray this week.
Fractured: Don Martin, writing for CTV, handicaps a Charest-Poilievre race, and finds it hard to imagine the party rallying around either of the men.
If Charest wins … he will face more than a few MPs and their assorted bloodhounds who have already declared him unfit to lead the party for being too left. Some of them may need to be evicted to find a home in the People’s Party under increasingly-unhinged Maxime Bernier. But that’s the easy part …
As for Poilievre, he’d better be a helluva chameleon. He will have to shift from proudly standing with the trucker convoys and worshiping every extra barrel of oil production to bonding with the middle-road, climate-fretting Ontario voters he’ll need to win a general election. Spoiler alert: It’s hard. Ask Erin O’Toole.
No word on defence budget: In Latvia on Tuesday, Justin Trudeau announced that Canada is extending its military mission there, Global reports, but he didn’t say if Canada will boost defence spending: “We understand the urgency that is presented right now in the world with Ukrainians standing strong against this illegal Russian invasion. Those weapons are much more useful and in the coming weeks in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their lives than they would be in Canadian hands. But of course, we need to make sure we replace those weapons rapidly.”
Warning to Russia: NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg warned Tuesday a Russian attack on the supply lines of allied nations supporting Ukraine would be a dangerous escalation, CBC reports.
“The allies are helping Ukraine uphold their right for self defence, which is enshrined in the UN charter,” Stoltenberg said after a meeting with Trudeau, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš at the Adazi base. “Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is defending itself. If there is any attack against any NATO country, NATO territory, that will trigger Article 5.”
Canadian energy? In the Star, Heather Scoffieldwrites that the Trudeau government is pondering increasing Canadian energy exports to Europe to help allies reliant on Russian petroleum, but that would come with a price.
Indeed, there’s an active push on by some — but not all — federal cabinet ministers and the energy sector to find short-term ways to increase Canada’s oil and gas supply to world markets. They’re scouring the country for projects that can be expanded, or quickly approved and brought up to speed. They’re also looking hard for extra capacity to ship out the added supply. With oil and gas prices so high, the calculus of what is economical has changed. But let’s not kid ourselves: there will be a cost — in emissions.
End of mandates: Ontario is to drop mask mandates in shops, restaurants and secondary schools on March 21, the Starreports. Ontario’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore is to announce the move at 11 a.m., the Star has been told.
Ford ahead: Philippe J. Fournier, in Maclean’s, takes a close look at the latest Ontario Leger poll that shows the PCs with 39, and the Liberals and NDP tied at 27. That means the Tories should win the election to come.
A PC majority remains the most likely scenario. It would simply not be enough for either the Liberals or NDP to siphon voters away from each other to win—from a purely mathematical point of view, one of these parties has to gnaw away at PC support to tip the balance in its favour. Let us recall that Ford’s PCs won a 76-seat majority in 2018 with just over 40 per cent of the popular vote. So while PC support may stand just below its 2018 level, the opposition is far more divided than in 2018.
Hillier exit: Ontario independent MPP Randy Hillier was kicked off Twitter on Tuesday, CTV reports.
The news comes after Ottawa police recently revealed they were investigating the MPP’s Twitter activity due to comments related to the so-called “Freedom Convoy” protests in the capital city. In messages to CTV News Toronto, the Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston MPP said the social media platform suspended his account because he “stated the truth.”
In February, during the convoy occupation of Ottawa, Hillier called for his followers on Twitter to call emergency phone lines in Ottawa.
Convoy to Kyiv: Speaking of the convoy, Global has an interesting story on how some of the online forums devoted to the convoy are now spreading misinformation about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sunwing fallout:Omar Alghabra announced Tuesday that six passengers from the infamous Sunwing flight to Mexico received “penalties” of up to $5,000 because they were not fully vaccinated when they boarded the flight to Cancun, Global reports.
Bankers make bank: Pay awarded to the CEOs of Canada’s five largest banks rose by 23 per cent last year, the Globereports. Five bank CEOs earned a combined $70-million in total compensation, compared with $57-million in 2020, according to company filings.
The Ottawa convoy and Detroit-Windsor border blockades have come and gone, and through it all it appears Premier Doug Ford’s levels of support have gone mostly unscathed, according to the latest Ontario poll from Léger.
Fielded last week for Postmedia newspapers, the poll measures a commanding 12-point lead for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario with 39 per cent support province-wide. Both its rivals, the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP, are battling for second place with 27 per cent a piece.
With less than three months before election day, is a Doug Ford and PC win inevitable at this point? Hardly, but with such a level of support, a PC majority remains the most likely scenario. It would simply not be enough for either the Liberals or NDP to siphon voters away from each other to win—from a purely mathematical point of view, one of these parties has to gnaw away at PC support to tip the balance in its favour. Let us recall that Ford’s PCs won a 76-seat majority in 2018 with just over 40 per cent of the popular vote. So while PC support may stand just below its 2018 level, the opposition is far more divided than in 2018, when Liberal support had crumbled and the NDP became the official opposition. With these two parties currently at near-identical levels of support in the province, neither currently have a realistic chance of making substantial seat gains from the PC.
In Metro Toronto, Léger measures a three-way race with only five points separating the Liberals (34 per cent), the PCs (31 per cent) and the NDP (29 per cent). In the 905/GTA, the PC party is well ahead of its rivals with 43 per cent of support, 15 points ahead of the Liberals and 19 points in front of the NDP. In southwestern Ontario, the PCs still hold a double-digit lead over the NDP. Naturally, the regional subsamples carry more uncertainty due to their smaller sample sizes, but these numbers have remained generally steady compared to Léger’s recent Ontario polls. Simply stated: If the non-PC vote doesn’t coalesce behind either the NDP or Liberals, especially in the GTA and other regions of Ontario, the PCs could ride to an easy majority come June.
The poll also shows a steep generational divide: among voters aged 18-34 years old, it is the NDP that leads the pack with 38 per cent, nine points ahead of the Liberals (29 per cent). Doug Ford’s PC party ranks third with 25 cent. However, with voters aged 35 and over, Léger measures a PC rout: an 18-point lead among voters aged 35-54 and a 17-point lead with voters over 55 years old. Needless to remind readers that, as a general rule, old voters are higher-propensity voters, and as such this gives the PC a massive advantage over its rivals.
The Ontario PC party climbs back into majority territory with an average of 70 seats, seven seats above the 63-seat threshold for a majority at Queen’s Park (see full projection map here). The projection confidence intervals remain wide however: In the lower bracket, the PCs would be reduced to a plurality of seats, and we would then witness whether Ford could win over the confidence of the legislature and lead a minority government (which we presume would be on a short leash); in the upper bracket, a near-perfect vote split between the Liberals and NDP would propel the PCs to an even greater majority than in 2018.
For the Ontario Liberals, while the numbers suggest they would be best positioned to unseat the PCs, their advantage over the NDP for the role of top challenger is tenuous at best. See the seat probability density graph below: The Liberal Party has a modestly higher ceiling than the NDP, but a poor campaign from Steven Del Duca and a better than-expected GOTV from the NDP, and the Liberal Party could easily find itself in third place again. In short, the NDP has more “safe seats” than the Liberals:
Nevertheless, it would be unwise to suggest we know how this election will turn out. Unlike in 2018, Doug Ford will have a record to defend and, according to Léger, 57 per cent of the poll’s respondents admit that they could change their minds on who they will vote for in June—including 51 per cent of PC supporters. Doug Ford should be considered a solid favourite to win, but this data indicates that even his own voters aren’t locked in yet.
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Jean Charestwill announce his candidacy for the CPC on Thursday, sources tell Radio Canada. Bob Fife has a copy of the invitation to the launch. It will be in Calgary.
Kheiriddin out: Earlier Monday, journalist Tasha Kheiriddin, who had been considering a run, announced that she would instead throw her support behind Charest. The Post, where she used to columnize, has the story.
Pierre Poilievre, widely seen as the odds-on favourite, is unlikely to welcome Charest, who he attacked on Twitter on Monday. CP has a good roundup of the state of the race.
Baggage: In Le Journal de Montréal, Richard Martineaureminds readers that while Charest was premier of Quebec, there was an “unhealthy promiscuity” between Liberals and certain big-spending engineering firms (translation).
Lurking? In the Star, Stephanie Levitz takes an in-depth look at the personal dynamics at play in the CPC race, including the role that a certain former prime minister may play.
Former party leader and Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, for instance, has been sending signals he’s not willing to take a back seat if former Progressive Conservative leader Jean Charest runs. The two interacted often when Harper was prime minister and Charest was premier of Quebec, where he harshly criticized Harper often and in particular, during the 2008 election in which the federal Conservatives again failed to secure a majority. How exactly Harper will engage in this leadership contest is unclear, two sources close to him told the Star, but what is certain, they said, is that he will be motivated by a desire to ensure a “true Conservative” wins.
Pressure for defence spending: In London on Monday, at the start of a five-day European trip to support Ukraine, Justin Trudeau defended Canada’s low level of defence spending, acknowledging the “context is changing rapidly around the world,” the Globereports.
Trudeau made his comments at a joint press conference with with Boris Johnson and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has a defence spending target of 2 per cent of GDP for its 30 member countries. Canada lags the vast majority, placing fifth-last in defence spending at 1.39 per cent of GDP, as of 2021, according to NATO estimates. Britain spent 2.29 per cent of GDP on defence last year, according to the same estimates. Mr. Johnson said he wouldn’t comment on Canada’s military budget but noted that Britain’s is much higher. “I’m not going to make any comment on Canada’s approach except to say this: I do think that the world has clearly changed. And I think that what we can’t do post the invasion of Ukraine is assume that we can go back to a kind of status quo.”
Russian oil: Trudeau, Johnson and Rutte were also asked about replacing Russian petroleum, the Postreports. Conservative critics have blamed Trudeau for making it more difficult to build pipelines to export Canadian petroleum, and called for Canadian products to be exported to replace Russian petroleum. In his remarks, Trudeau emphasized alternatives to oil: “We will be there to support, as the world moves beyond Russian oil and indeed, beyond fossil fuels, to have more renewables in our mix.”
Latvian market? The ambassador from Latvia said Monday he would welcome Canadian LNG, the Globereports.
Russian threats: Russia threatened Monday to cut off natural gas exports, Reuters reports.
Wheat up: Canadians may be spending more for groceries as a result of the war in Ukraine, the Postreports. The war has “disrupted grain exports from the Black Sea region, putting stark upward pressures on wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, and legumes like pulses.”
Out on bail: Convoy organizer Tamara Lich got bail on Monday, CTV reports. Lich was released on $25,000 in bonds and must leave Ottawa within 24 hours and Ontario within 72 hours. Lich, who has been locked up since Feb. 17, is charged with counselling to commit mischief.
Kenney cuts gas tax:Jason Kenney announced Monday that the province would drop its 13-cents-a-litre gas tax. In the Herald, Don Braid explains that he can afford to do that.
Almost singlehandedly, the oil surge erased last year’s original estimate of an $18-billion deficit, turning it into a balanced budget with an estimated $500 million surplus. That’s with this year’s oil price estimated at $70 per barrel. At the current WTI level of nearly $120 — fully $50 above the estimate — the province can expect an extra $25 billion to pile up on top of the balanced budget, should that price persist for a year.
It was a surprise to see the Prime Minister making an announcement on e-business on Thursday, since his government and most others around the world are properly preoccupied with events in Ukraine. Surprising but encouraging. Wanting to work on more than one thing at a time is so rare a merit that it should be encouraged, as Lincoln almost said. And in fact, Thursday’s announcement has been a long time coming. Let’s peek under the hood.
The Canada Digital Adoption Program announced Thursday, as the Globe reports, is designed to help Canadian businesses succeed in the fascinating and mysterious world of the internet. And when it was originally announced 11 months ago, it was depicted as a bit of a big deal.
The 2021 federal budget was a bit of a momentous document, following the previous federal budget by two years and, at over 700 pages, the largest budget book ever. It also marked the first appearance in new roles by the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, and by the department’s star recruit deputy minister, Michael Sabia. And obviously it was released in an atmosphere of lingering pandemic crisis.
In a budget-day conference call with journalists, a senior finance department official we weren’t allowed to identify by name devoted most of his or her remarks to highlighting post-pandemic economic recovery measures. One of the first few things the senior-finance-department-official-we-weren’t-allowed-to-identify-by-name talked about was a program to send young tech-savvy Canadians into small businesses to help convert them to the digital economy. The senior-finance-department-official-we-weren’t-allowed-to-identify-by-name was tremendously excited by this plan.
Much of this excitement was reflected in the language of the budget document. The 2021 budget promised “unprecedented and historic investments” in small business, to give them “a shot at becoming the Canadian-headquartered global champions of tomorrow.” Indeed, the government would put $4 billion toward a “game-changing new effort” to help up to 160,000 small and medium-sized businesses “buy the new technologies they need to grow.”
At the heart of this effort was the Canada Digital Adoption Program, which would “train… 28,000 young Canadians—a Canadian technology corps—and send them out to work with our small and medium sized businesses.”
This program—not only unprecedented, historic and game-changing, but also, per the budget document, “groundbreaking” — would “help Canadian small businesses become more efficient, go digital, take advantage of e-commerce, and become more competitive in Canada and abroad.”
I was skeptical from the outset. Twenty-eight thousand digital advisors is a lot of people. What’s the demand for their youthful energy?
I guess that’ll depend how many businesses are, simultaneously:
(a) not yet online, 30 years into this “internet” thing;
(b) interested in going online;
(c) unable to figure out for themselves how to get online; and
(d) likely to ask the government of Canada for help.
This feels like a smallish Venn intersection. In particular, I’d be damned curious to know how many businesses are in both groups (c) and (d). I know we’re angry at the web giants this year, but if I type “take my business online” into the popular internet website “Google,” I get a little north of 9 billion results, including this and this and this and this and this. I was a little surprised Shopify wasn’t one of the top hits, because I think if you asked 40 strangers how to take your business online, 38 of them would tell you to try Shopify.
I worried the feds might be creating an army of Maytag repairmen, but inspired by the excitement of nameless officials I decided to wait and see how the new program evolved. In July Mary Ng, a minister of assorted things, announced a call for applications for part of this “Canada Digital Adoption Program.” This wasn’t yet a chance for businesses that wanted to go online to line up some youthful digital advice. No, first the Trudeau government was just looking for “not-for-profit organizations” to run the program. The winning organization(s) would be responsible for “recruiting, mentoring and training students” who would then take businesses online. Interested non-profits had until early August to apply.
Ng’s news release was of course loaded up with adjectives about how important all this was. Small businesses would be “crucial” to the economic recovery; expanding digital adoption was “critical” to Canada’s competitiveness.
I began a correspondence with ISED, the department formerly known as Industry, about the program’s evolution. Ng’s call had been for the “Grow Your Business Online” component of the Canada Digital Adoption Program, the department told me on Aug. 3. This first component of the strategy would employ “up to 11,200 young digital advisors.” A second component, “Boost Your Business Tech,” would hire 16,800 more young people and would be announced “soon.”
There followed, very soon after, a wholly unnecessary federal election. Nobody should expect files like this to go anywhere during a campaign. But in mid-December I checked in with ISED for an update. Who’d been selected to run the program? Were businesses now being launched into the future?
“More than 50” not-for-profits had applied to run Grow Your Business Online, the department told me, “and we are currently finalizing our selection process.” Indeed, the process of selecting an organization to run the second component, Boost Your Business Tech, was also “nearing completion.”
This was exciting, so I waited two more months and then asked, in mid-February, whether the department had an update on the process they had been finalizing two months earlier, or on the one that had been nearing completion. The department replied that “as of currently there has been no update to our previous response.”
This delay must have been frustrating to you, if you are the owner of a small business with no access to Google or a smartphone. Ten months after announcing a historic and game-changing plan to provide critical and crucial help to the many businesses that have not yet progressed beyond 8-track tape, the government hadn’t decided who’s going to run the thing.
Anyway, now we have an announcement! The details remain sketchy. ISED has laid on a technical briefing for journalists for Friday, at which officials will answer detail questions. I couldn’t help noticing that Friday is after Thursday, which was the day journalists had a chance to ask the PM about the program. Back when the Harper Conservatives were in power, and the government started explaining programs after ministers had already taken questions about them, we naively assumed this backward arrangement was a reflection of Stephen Harper’s unique disdain for questions and the people who ask them. Turns out it wasn’t unique! Turns out it’s pretty generic.
Anyway. A few answers are coming to light. Who’ll run the Grow Your Business Online component? This page suggests it’ll be various organizations, depending on location. Coverage seems spotty: If you live in Atlantic Canada, you’re to apply to the New Brunswick Association of Community Business Development Corporations.
Do the 13 service providers each have an average of 861 young digital concierges ready to head out and show businesses how to turn on their laptops? Uh, maybe? This page sure makes it sound like the young web gurus are not yet actually standing by. “E-commerce advisors will have the opportunity to work with local small businesses,” it says. “Advisors will receive training from their service provider.” Soon, perhaps.
I’m actually trying to imagine a company that, in 2022, isn’t online yet; wants to get online; and figures the quick way to do that is to apply to a government program that began accepting applications 11 months after it was announced. It’s an open question whether such companies, if they exist, should be encouraged to keep acting that way. And I keep coming back to how, on the day of the big budget, this was the first thing the government wanted to brag about.
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Setback for Poilievre: Conservatives will select a new leader on Sept. 10, CBC reported late Wednesday. The membership cutoff will be June 3. Supporters of Pierre Poilievre had sought a May cutoff and June convention. Would-be candidates from the PC side, including Patrick Brown, Tasha Kheiriddin, Peter MacKay and Jean Charest favoured a later date, which might allow them to catch up to Pierre Poilievre, who would seem to have a commanding lead among existing members. His potential rivals had been waiting for the announcement of the rules before deciding whether to throw their hats in the ring.
Chateau soirée: Charest was in Ottawa Wednesday night to meet with CPC caucus members, likely a preliminary step to announcing his candidacy. While he was hobnobbing with Tories at the Chateau Laurier, Conservatives in Poilievre’s camp attacked him on Twitter.
La Presse has a story on Charest’s night out (translation), pointing out in passing that some legal unpleasantness has recently been resolved, clearing the way for his candidacy.
On Monday, the Permanent Anti-Corruption Unit closed the Mâchurer investigation into the financing of the Liberal Party of Quebec at the time when the party was led by Mr. Charest, after eight years of unsuccessful proceedings. This is therefore one less obstacle for his candidacy for the leadership of the Conservative Party.
Whither Chong? Michael Chong has not ruled out running, CP reports.
No to war: The General Assembly of the United Nations voted 141-5 Wednesday to “deplore” the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Globe reports, an unusual display of unity.
“The message of the General Assembly is loud and clear,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told journalists after the vote on Wednesday. “End hostilities in Ukraine – now. Silence the guns – now. Open the door to dialogue and diplomacy – now.”
No-fly request: In an interview with CBC on Wednesday, Former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko pleaded with Canada and its NATO allies to enforce a no-fly zone above Ukraine as Russia intensifies its aerial bombardment: “We’re fighting for the security in Europe here, fighting for France, for Germany, for Poland, for Spain. And can you imagine, we’re here fighting for Canada.”
NATO leaders say a no-fly zone could amount to a direct confrontation between NATO and the Russian military, which could lead to nuclear war, and it is not under consideration.
Zerensky asks for more: In a call Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelensky asked Justin Trudeau to do more to stop Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, Le Journal de Montréalreports (translation).
Freeland warned them: In the Globe, Konrad Yakabuski has an interesting column about the role played by Chrystia Freeland in Canada’s response to the war in Ukraine. Freeland has drawn on a lifetime’s experience in her push for sanctions against Russia.
According to a Reuters report, Ms. Freeland directly addressed Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina during a Feb. 18 meeting of Group of Twenty finance officials, warning the duo not to doubt the resolve of “like-minded democracies” to punish Russia if it invaded Ukraine. Politico reported on Sunday that Ms. Freeland had spent much of last week “pushing the idea of sanctioning the central bank” among her Group of Seven colleagues.
Off to war: The Globe also has a story about an 18-year-old Toronto man headed to Ukraine in hopes of fighting for his country.
Still in jail: Convoy protest leader Tamara Lich argued in court on Wednesday that the judge who denied her bail should not have ruled on the case because she ran for the Liberals in 2011, the Star reports. Lich’s next hearing will be March 7.
Convoy lessons: In Maclean’s, Paul Wells has a thoughtful meditation on the convoy’s time in Ottawa.
The Freedom Convoy rode into Canada’s fourth-largest city at the end of January on a stack of threats, some more subtle than others, to Canada’s civil order and to people who had the misfortune of residing where the occupiers wanted to park. The siege’s organizers dusted off a “Memorandum of Understanding,” already written before the idea for a truckers’ convoy came to them, that called for the Senate and the Governor General to depose Justin Trudeau from his post as prime minister. This is not something the Senate and Governor General can do. So it was really a Memorandum of Misunderstanding, or of Not Wanting to Understand. Organizers eventually withdrew the memorandum from their website, but for weeks they refused to withdraw themselves from the centre of Canada’s capital city.
Wells notes that one of the remarkable things about the convoyers’ Ottawa encampment was its speed, compared with the way things usually work in the city.
Next to the hot tub is the former U.S. embassy, three stories of Indiana limestone directly facing the Centre Block. Since 1999, it has stood empty because there’s a new, far bigger embassy around the corner. In the early 2000s, somebody decided the grand old building should become Canada’s national portrait gallery. When the Conservatives came to office in 2006, I guess they worried about whose portraits would go in the thing, and whose wouldn’t, so they spent nearly a decade ensuring it wouldn’t be a portrait gallery. When the Liberals returned in 2015, they decided it should be an Indigenous Peoples space. There have been substantial disagreements about exactly what that should entail. So, for 23 years now, that prime real estate has lain fallow. For a while now, I’ve imagined the former embassy as a stop on an Ottawa Paralysis Tour I might run for tourists.