If Alberta separatists hope federalist apathy will swing the provincial referendum results their way, they are out of luck.
A couple of months ago some pundits suggested the silent majority would sit out the referendum because it is both a stupid idea and patently obvious that the majority of the province wants to stay in Canada.
This week Elections Alberta announced that more than 650,000 mail-in ballots have been requested ahead of the Oct. 19 live vote. That’s about 11 times more than the last general election.
Elections Alberta downplayed the significance of this wave of enthusiasm for the vote. Rules changed so voters don’t have to explain why they need to vote by mail and on the actual referendum day, voters have to vote at the poll where they live, so no deking out of work for a minute or two to mark your exes.
But those factors wouldn’t make that big a difference in the numbers. Albertans want to have their say on this one.
Does that mean that Premier Danielle Smith’s exercise in participatory democracy is a stand out success? Or does it mean the voting population is so angry about this divisive and expensive exercise in mollifying the UCP’s separatist flank that it wants to send a very clear and loud message?
Reputable pollster Janet Brown’s recent poll suggests the answer to the big question on the ballot is going to be a landslide for the stay in Canada side. Her team found 72 per cent of all Albertans want to stay in Canada and 23 per cent want to start the process to hold a binding separation vote.
Brown’s deep dive into the poll results shows that the biggest predictor of being ready to start down the road to separation is being a supporter of the ruling United Conservative Party. Of respondents who say they vote UCP, 53 per cent want to proceed to a binding referendum on leaving.
The referendum written off by many as a sop to Smith’s base is morphing into something else entirely.
While the results of the main separation question, which counter-intuitively is question 10 out of the 10 ballots in the referendum ballot book, are not in doubt, the fate of the other nine issues up for a vote is a different kettle of fish.
The grab-bag of right-wing hobby horses and Alberta grievances in the additional nine questions may be another reason so many Albertans want to vote early and make sure their wishes are recorded. Some might just want extra time over the kitchen table trying to figure out what the questions actually mean.
The provincial government felt the need to put out a handy guide on what the questions mean, complete with lots of spin, some of it misleading, on how to vote. The implication of the immigration questions, for instance, raise many questions, including whether the government plans to deny non-Alberta-government-approved immigrants and their children the right to education and healthcare.
Cutting through the noise, opponents of the UCP agenda have boiled their advice down pretty simply. Prominent signs are popping up around Alberta cities saying simply “Stay in Canada No to the Nine”.
That might be confusing to a passing tourist, but if you’re an Albertan with a finger on the voting trigger, you get it.
And beyond the 650,000 who have already asked for mail in ballots, there are no doubt many more ready to mark their X on advance polling days before the final vote on Oct. 19.
This vote is likely to have a huge participation rate, perhaps a record for the province. Given the numbers and the complexity of the nine questions, each with separate ballots, Elections Alberta has a massive task in front of it.
Smith will also have a massive task when this is over. If Brown’s poll is right, the premier’s party is out of touch with Albertans on the most important political issue of the decade.
Does she let that just simmer on the political back-burner til the next election or will she try to be unifying, rather than divisive leader?
