According to the LP338.com federal polling average, the NDP has increased their standing over the past two weeks increasing from 23.9% to 25.1%. Besides the NDP election victory in Alberta, their have been two polls that place the NDP just below 30% support. The Liberals continue their monthly slide with their support now below the 30% threshold. The recent EKOS poll showed the NDP pulling past the Liberals. Across Canada, 32.0% of polled voters preferred the Conservatives, down slightly from two weeks ago, 29.9% Liberal and 25.1% NDP. The Green Party polls at 7.5% nationwide and 11.9% in BC. The BQ is at 17.7% in Quebec.
Looking at the regional races, British Columbia continues to be a three-way race between the major parties while in Ontario, the Tories have slightly increased their lead over the Liberals 36.4% to 33.2%. In Quebec the NDP has increased their lead over the Liberals 30.1% to 24.2%.
The release of some elements of the Liberal economic plan to support middle class families has not had an initial impact on the polling numbers. In fact, the Liberal announcement was overshadowed by the Alberta election and the increase in the federal NDP fortunes. We will be monitoring whether the increase in NDP support will be sustained.
The federal election is scheduled for October 19th, 2015. Based on the above national and regional party preferences, the Conservatives would win a ‘minority’ government with 140 seats, down slightly from two weeks ago, compared to 106 for the Liberals, 88 for the NDP, 2 seats each for the Bloc and Green Party. The NDP increase from 80 seats two weeks ago to 88 has come largely at the expense of the Liberals.
The polls used in the creation of LP338.com federal polling average can be found on LP338.com.