According to the LP338.com federal polling average for polling in the field to September 7th, 2015, the NDP is clinging to a narrow lead over the Conservatives in popular support but are in a statistical tie as it relates to seat count. The NDP currently has the aggregated support of 32.1% of Canadians that translates into 122 seats compared to 119 for the Conservatives.
During the past few weeks, the NDP support has been softening across the country with the exception of Quebec. The Liberals have been the main beneficiary and are now at 29.4% which translates into 96 seats. The Green Party is forecasted to win only one seat in British Columbia and the Bloc would currently be shut out of Quebec.
The primary battlegrounds entering the second phase of the election campaign are Ontario and British Columbia which combine for 163 of the 338 seats. Both provinces are currently a toss up and the vote splits within the 416 / 905 area codes in Ontario will quite possible determine the party who will win the most seats. The Liberals currently are at 34.3% in Ontario compared to 32.7% for the Conservatives and 27.2% for the NDP.
The federal election is scheduled for October 19th, 2015. The polls used in the creation of the LP338.com federal polling average can be found on LP338.com. The projection is subject to the margin of error of the polls incorporated into the LP338.com model.