LP338.com: NDP overtake the Liberals in voter intention and seats

05-25-2015 Federal Vote Projection

According to the LP338.com federal polling average for polling in the field to May 24th, 2015, the NDP has surpassed the Liberals in both popular support and seats.  The NDP currently has the aggregated support of 28.4% of Canadians, an increase of 3.3% from one week ago.  This aligns with the EKOS poll last week plus the CROP poll in Quebec which shows the NDP leading by 11 points, an extremely large one month change in voter support.  CROP shows the Liberals slipping four points to 25%, the Conservatives falling four points to 15%, and the Bloc Québécois falling five points to 13%.

The NDP is leading in Quebec and BC while placing a strong second in Alberta.

The Liberals continue to slide in popularity at 28.2% and 93 seats.  The Liberal decline in the number of seats is due to the NDP strength in Quebec as well as the three way splits in Ontario.  With the decline in Liberal support, pundits started to comment last week on the Liberals changing tactics in order to stop the slide.

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The Conservatives are down slightly from last week in both voter intention and seats.  The federal election is scheduled for October 19th, 2015.  Based on the above national and regional party preferences, the Conservatives would win a ‘minority’ government with 135 seats.

The polls used in the creation of the LP338.com federal polling average can be found on LP338.com. The projection is subject to the margin of error of the polls incorporated into the LP338.com model.


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