According to the LP338.com federal polling average for polling in the field to July 15th, 2015, the NDP is clinging to their narrow lead over the Conservatives in popular support but are in a statistical tie as it relates to seat count. The NDP currently has the aggregated support of 32.1% of Canadians that translates into 125 seats compared to 124 for the Conservatives.
The NDP continues to rely on strong support in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. The Liberals continue to trail the NDP and Conservatives across the country with the exception of Atlantic Canada.
The Conservative numbers have started to show some improvement over the past few polls as more attention has been given to a potential NDP win.
The federal election is scheduled for October 19th, 2015. The polls used in the creation of the LP338.com federal polling average can be found on LP338.com. The projection is subject to the margin of error of the polls incorporated into the LP338.com model.