OTTAWA — The federal Liberals are pushing further ahead of the Conservatives in voter support, and almost one in two Canadians surveyed said they think the Liberals will win the election, a new poll suggests.

The survey, conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press, reports that 44 per cent of decided voters surveyed would vote Liberal in the upcoming election, ahead of the Conservatives at 38 per cent.

The poll surveyed 1,599 Canadians between March 21 and March 23, which includes the first day of the election, and the two days leading into it.

Because the poll was conducted online, it can’t be assigned a margin of error.

A Leger poll released one week earlier, showed the Liberals with 42 per cent support compared with 39 per cent for the Conservatives. It was the first time since early 2023 the Liberals took the lead.

In a poll taken two weeks ago by Leger the Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 37 per cent each.

The current poll had the NDP at only six per cent, down three points from the last survey.

Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said in an interview that what used to be a small lead for the Liberals is now a “statistically significant” lead of six points.

Dallaire also pointed out that the decline of the NDP has reaffirmed that this election is a two-horse race.

“This survey, that marks the start of the campaign, unfortunately for the NDP just confirms that, as of now, they are really far behind, the floor seems to have disappeared under their feet,” Dallaire said.

It is a complete turn around for the Liberals since the start of the year.

On Jan. 13, a week after former prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign, the Liberals and the NDP trailed the Conservatives by double digits. In that poll, the Tories held a commanding lead with 47 per cent of decided voters, compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the Conservatives.

Almost half of those polled — 48 per cent — said they think the Liberals are going to win the election, compared with just under one-third who said the Conservatives would win.

The Liberal fortunes began to turn around after Trudeau’s departure and after U.S. President Donald Trump took office, threatened to use economic force to annex Canada and began imposing punishing tariffs.

Mark Carney’s ascension to the helm of the Liberal party seemed to secure the trend. The latest poll suggests 39 per cent of Canadians think Carney would make the best prime minister, compared with 28 per cent for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

“It speaks to the personal appeal of Mark Carney right now,” Dallaire said of the 11-point gap. “Probably what’s going to be the defining factor during this campaign is how well Mark Carney is able to meet those expectations and to match what’s in his resume.”

“This lead right now is based on what Canadians know of him but not Canadians knowing him.”

The Liberals lead in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives remain the top choice in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Among men the two parties are tied at 42 per cent each, while 46 per cent of women backed the Liberals, compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives.

The Liberals have a large lead over the Conservatives among those over the age of 55, while the Conservatives have small leads over the Liberals among voters 18 to 34 and 35 to 54.

Dallaire said recent polls show that the top issue for voters is dealing with Trump and U.S. tariffs. He said the “ballot box question” as of now is which leader is best at managing Trump.

“For as long as the main issue of the campaign is Donald Trump and the threat of tariffs or the threat of annexation for Canada, that helps (Liberal Leader) Mark Carney,” Dallaire said, adding that parties like the Conservatives will need to try to change the discussion to talk about issues like affordability and inflation in order to get ahead.

“With Canadians looking south and being very worried about what’s coming from the United States, the main issues that really propelled (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre in the lead are not as important right now to voters,” Dallaire said.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 25, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press