Donald Trump, convicted criminal.
If you want to get detailed and in-depth coverage and commentary about this historic criminal case, there’s lots and lots that has been written by some smart Americans this morning.
But if you want the perspective of a Canadian who worked as a volunteer for Joe Biden in his last couple campaigns, you’ve come to the right place.
Ten observations.
1) The people who are said to me that Trump would never ever be convicted are the same people now saying the conviction will help him win. Why don’t I listen to these super smart people? I know nothing about politics or the law.
2) He won’t get jail time. White collar crime, first offense (that we know about anyway), no prior criminal record. Jail time seems impossible. My question is, will Canadian border agents let the Mango Mussolini into the country now that he’s a convicted criminal?
3) A related point on that: in Florida, where Trump resides, convicted felons are not allowed to vote. Among other things, this presents the delicious possibility the Trump will be unable to vote for himself at the Republican convention where he is the presumptive presidential nominee.
4) Related to that related point: his sentencing is happening four days before the GOP convention kicks off in Milwaukee. Whatever the Trumpkins may think, it’s going to be interesting to see how sane, law-and-order Republicans applaud a convicted crook. Expect lots of close-ups of Nikki Haley’s hands.
5) The 2024 Democratic convention in Chicago was always going to be a circus, just like the Democratic convention in Chicago was in 1968. The reason: anti-Semitic Gen Z types descending on the Windy City to violently protest Joe Biden’s longtime support of Israel. Now, the GOP will have a deep, dark pall over the proceedings: their candidate is a convicted criminal. Ouch.
6) And, sure, lots of MAGA Republicans won’t care about the fact that their messiah is a crook. They’d vote for him if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, as Trump himself has bragged in the past. Democrats, meanwhile, were never going to vote for him. Neither matter. The most important constituency in American politics isn’t committed partisans (who should be committed, most days). It’s registered Independents. Those people decide presidential elections. And they are the ones who don’t, and won’t, shrug that twelve of Don the Con’s peers unanimously decided he broke the law 34 times.
7) Which is why it’s so hard for MAGA nutbars to spin this one away as a Biden-led conspiracy: Agent Orange was convicted, unanimously, by twelve regular citizens – include some who admitted they use Trump’s Truth Social platform to get their news. Saying there’s a judge-led conspiracy is always easy. Saying twelve regular folks conspired against you is a lot harder.
8) His sentence may not include jail time. But it ain’t gonna be nothing. Why? Because Cadet Bone Spur repeatedly (and insanely) attacked the judge, the lawyers, and the entire legal system, every single day for weeks. That’s what judges call “showing no remorse.” A lack of remorse is a major, major factor in sentencing. It’ll be a factor when the judge brings his gavel down on July 11.
9) Biden and the Democrats now have a smoother ride to re-election. Sorry, MAGA knuckle-draggers, but they do. You can write the attack ads yourself: just show average Americans saying, straight to camera: “I don’t want a convicted criminal to be my president.” It’ll work. Trust me.
10) I’ve worked for Jean Chretien. I’ve worked for Joe Biden. Their political opponents always, always make the same mistake: they underestimate them. Biden was being underestimated by American pundits and politicos. Now, it’s impossible to do that. One candidate is a convicted felon. The other isn’t. Some days, that’s all you need to know.
But again, what do I know about politics? I’m just a dumb Canadian lawyer and former advisor to a Canadian Prime Minister.
Pay me no mind. Keep doing what you’re doing, Republicans.
Please.
