Three Ontario byelections delivered status quo results on Thursday night, with the Progressive Conservatives holding two ridings and the NDP retaining the third.
The victories in York-Simcoe and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek were a bounce-back of sorts for Premier Doug Ford, who suffered a string of dismal poll results in the spring after the ill-fated purchase of a private jet for his travels and an MPP expense scandal. Ford’s popularity has jumped recently after he took a leading role in a very public fight with U.S. President Donald Trump over tariffs and trade.
Jeff Beattie, a Hamilton councillor, held a seven-point lead over the NDP’s Monique Taylor, a former MPP, with almost all the polls reporting. Heino Doessing, for the Liberals, was a distant third. Former PC cabinet minister Neil Lumsden retired in June.
In York-Simcoe, the riding north of Toronto that was recently held by PC cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, local councillor Susan Lahey appeared likely to cruise to a Tory victory that was widely expected. She was up by more than 12 percentage points (50-38) over Liberal candidate Naomi Davison with most polls reporting. The NDP were polling at less than five per cent in York-Simcoe, which has been a PC stronghold.
There was better news for Marit Stiles and the Official Opposition NDP in Scarborough Southwest, where Fatima Shaban was poised to win a seat formerly held by Doly Begun, who left the provincial NDP to run (and win) in the riding for Mark Carney’s Liberals. Shaban, who had lost in multiple attempts to win the riding federally, held a comfortable 10-point lead (40-30) with most polls reporting over Liberal candidate Ahsanul Hafiz.
Hafiz, who owns more than two dozen Domino’s Pizza franchises, won the Scarborough Southwest nomination for the Liberals after a bitter race against former federal MP Nate Erksine-Smith. The one-time Trudeau cabinet minister alleged wrongdoing in the vote, but his appeal was dismissed. Having planned to use the Scarborough seat as his first step toward running for the Ontario Liberal leadership, Erskine-Smith is now seeking a spot on Toronto city council.
Thursday night’s results were never going to have a significant impact on the composition of the legislature at Queen’s Park, where Ford’s PCs have a comfortable majority. But as with Carney’s sweep of three federal byelections earlier this week, Ford appears to have found a winning message amid the trade war. He last week called Trump a loser and told him to “kiss my ass,” and after the president ordered the renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America, Ford unveiled a massive Lake Ontario sign near the Hamilton waterfront.
The victory in Scarborough, meanwhile, was close to a must-win for Stiles and the NDP, given that her party has routinely trailed the Liberals in recent polling, even though that party is without a permanent leader. The Liberals will select a new leader in November.
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