Doug Ford has been the Premier of Ontario since June 29, 2018. He’s won three consecutive majority governments. He’s currently the ninth-longest serving Premier in Ontario history, and will be the fourth-longest at the end of his third term.
In spite of this electoral success, it goes without saying that Ford has plenty of supporters and detractors. He’s made some good decisions in office, and some bad ones. Some believe he’s taken a focally conservative approach to governing the province, while others don’t see an ounce of fiscal conservative thinking in his policies. Some believe he spouts off too much at press conferences, while others believe he says next to nothing. Some believe he’s an honest, straight-talking politician, while others feel he can’t be trusted to tell the truth.
Putting these mixed opinions aside, which most political leaders face at some point in their careers, an interesting twist to this story has occurred.
Ford told reporters in February during a campaign event in Oldcastle, Ont. that “I want to be premier forever.” He was well on his way to a decisive third election victory, so few blinked an eye at this statement. Seven months later, his comment seems to have more validity than the bluster attached to it. Ford has become what we could theoretically describe as a Forever Premier in Ontario’s political climate.
How so? The state of Ontario’s main opposition parties is quite dismal in one political camp, and less than desirable in the other. This gives Ford a tremendous political advantage and plenty of laneway to solidify his provincial leadership even further.
The Ontario Liberals are in the worst position. Bonnie Crombie only received 57 percent approval at the party’s recent leadership convention in Toronto and announced that she’ll resign when her successor is chosen. This followed her party’s unsuccessful election campaign where they finished third with only 14 seats. This was well behind Ford and the PCs, who won 80 seats – and Marit Stiles and the NDP, who won 27 seats.
Some Liberal supporters attempted to put a positive spin on this result by focusing on the NDP rather than the PCs. They pointed out that their party received 1,504,688 votes, or 29.95 percent of the total vote, which was higher than the NDP’s 931,796 votes and 18.55 percent. That’s true, but there were several problems with this analysis. While the NDP’s vote share may have been smaller than the Liberals, it was more concentrated in specific ridings whereas the Liberal vote was thinly spread across the province. You earn votes and seats through smart politics and electoral strategies, and the NDP did far better on the progressive side of the aisle. Moreover, two Liberal Premiers, Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, led Ontario from 2003-2018. The Liberals have since won 7, 9 and 14 seats in the past three elections. That’s nothing to celebrate when you were in power less than a decade ago, were booted out by the voters and still haven’t found a way to recover.
Crombie, who left a safe position as Mayor of Mississauga, Ont. to become Liberal leader in Dec. 2023, was a deer in the headlights outside of municipal politics. She served one term as a federal Liberal MP from 2008 to 2011. She had never run for provincial politics, never been a cabinet minister – and never led a political party. She was simply too politically green for the Red Liberal Machine.
Meanwhile, Crombie struggled with policy initiatives and suggesting ways to improve the economy. She didn’t resonate with voters, since her populist nature was crushed by Ford’s superior populist appeal. She looked genuinely uncomfortable as a party leader, too. “She will soon regret her decision to lead Ontario’s perpetually sinking Liberal ship,” I wrote in my National Post column on Dec. 5, 2023. As far as I’m concerned, she did.
What’s next for the Liberals? God knows. The party still has limited appeal to voters. The talent pool is extremely sparse, with left-wing politicians like Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith and former Liberal cabinet minister Karina Gould being mentioned as possible leadership candidates. The chances of being competitive with the PCs, especially if Ford carries on as Forever Premier, are next to nil for the foreseeable future.
The Ontario NDP is in a better position than the Liberals, if nothing else.
This party has served as the Official Opposition for the past two legislative sessions. Stiles is media savvy and an old political sparring partner. She’s not as razor sharp on policy and economic matters as some political leaders of her ilk, but she’s found ways to cobble together the support of left-leaning voters and Ford’s critics. While her party has only led this province on one occasion – when Bob Rae served as Premier from 1990-1995 – she’s viewed on the Left as someone who could potentially make a breakthrough if the stars align correctly.
Stiles went through a leadership review about a week after Crombie did. She ended up with 68 percent support of NDP grassroots members, politicians and others. While that was a better result, it was also below the old 70 percent threshold that Canadian party leaders used to traditionally believe was the bare minimum to stay. Stiles has vowed to remain NDP leader, which is her right and privilege. The fact that over 30 percent of her party has serious doubts about her leadership can’t be ignored.
There’s also the problem that Stiles doesn’t match up well against Ford. She also has a populist nature, but it pales in comparison to the Premier. She’s not particularly strong when it comes to suggesting new policies to help Ontario. Her statist views turn off a huge swath of voters who want more freedom, liberty and democracy in their lives. The provincial NDP is also viewed as a far-left outfit by many Ontarians and isn’t trusted to assume the role of government if the Forever Premier remains in power.
Doug Ford may step down tomorrow or in four years’ time. He may run for federal politics as a Conservative one day, and possibly for the party leadership. He may head back to private life and the business world. Or, he may remain Ontario Premier for what feels like forever.
Michael Taube, a longtime newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.
