The
in Los Angeles, sparked by President Trump’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants, could be a harbinger to a new era of ethnic conflict not only in the U.S. but throughout the West, including Canada.
Many
leading countries for immigrants
, notably in the Middle East, may have higher percentages of international migrants, but many are only there temporarily. But in Canada, Australia, and the U.S. — where the foreign born
represent between 15 and 30 per cent of the total population
— most come to stay, with sometimes problematic results.
President Joe Biden changed immigration policies, allowing millions, some barely vetted, to enter at ever increasing rates, causing the number of undocumented immigrants
Until recently, former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau followed a similar liberalization that allowed large numbers of migrants, some coming as refugees, into the country
In both countries, the mass migration has deepened already serious class divides as many new migrants remain poor. In Canada,
now lives in poverty, with most suffering from “deep poverty” — an income below 75 per cent of the poverty line — compared to only
of the whole population.
Such complexities are rarely part of the public discussion of immigration. In the U.S. legacy media spin on the crackdown focuses on
the abuses and often ham handed approach
used by the Trump administration in working class Latino communities. Stories of individual cases of respectable and upright families targeted by the crackdown predominate, stirring up ever more fear of a racist, even “fascist” crackdown on minorities.
In contrast, the MAGA view focuses on criminal migrants and radical demonstrators, some of whom have engaged in violence. The images of young protesters waving Mexican flags is offensive to many American citizens, even in California. For MAGA, the crackdown represents both a return to legality as well as a defence from hostile elements.
Both views largely ignore a more complex, and often contradictory reality. Historically, as immigrant advocates rightly claim, the migration of peoples have been critical to the economic health, and cultural dynamism, of countries such as the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and France.
Guest workers, for example, played a critical role in the revival of Europe’s economies, and steady immigration sparked growth in Canada, the U.S. and Australia. Yet as immigration levels have soared, the economic payoffs seem to be increasingly dubious, particularly when we put into account the changing structure of the labour market.
The reality is that immigrants are not only filling in for jobs with no workers, but are replacing native born workers who are increasingly on the sidelines. In much of Europe up to one
of the population under 30 is neither in school or working.
one out of seven under 25 is on the economic sidelines, the highest level in a decade.
Much the same pattern is emerging in North America. In the
has steadily dropped since 2000. More American men are now out of the workforce than in
. Canada too has a
declining labour participation
rate, which is now at the lowest level since 1997 .
These two phenomena — immigrant poverty and native non-participation — likely intersect. The immigrant’s presence at the lower end of the labour market does
, as noted by
, and could discourage natives from work. This may be a boon for professionals for cheaper waiters, busboys, gardeners, and nannies but not for working class people.
that Trump’s crackdown has helped
and
for low-income workers should be treated with care, but could become persuasive, at least outside the media and academic establishment.
In addition to purely economic calculations, there is also a political one. The new wave of immigrants includes a radical element bringing the tensions of their country of origin to their new home. This can be seen in particular with the
on college campuses and leading urban centres in the West. It is tragic to see once tolerant places, notably
, including my wife’s hometown of Montreal, into noxious hubs of ethnic and religious strife.
To be sure, the brutal tactics of Trump are less a solution than an incitement to greater discord. And
, although
to control of the border and the arrest of criminal migrants, see his actions
. But western countries — the beacon for millions around the world — still need to reconsider and reform their migration policies for their own sake.
The first step is to get control of the border, which Trump has done and
seems to be attempting. Newcomers need to enter in a legal and vetted manner, in contrast to the insane border non-enforcement typical of the Biden years, but also in Canada under Trudeau.
Restrictions need to be judicious and reflective of economic reality. Even Trump’s people acknowledge that
, like
, removing the undocumented could cause major labour shortages. One suggestion may be reviving an improved version of the
where necessary workers can work, but keep their families, and permanent residences, in their home countries. Even
now recruits such workers for its depopulated economy.
Long supportive of immigration, Canadians have become more skeptical, with most now agreeing that newcomers
drive down wages for Canadians
in places like fast food restaurants. But as a whole they also
the movement of skilled workers and appreciate the cultural contributions of newcomers.
Our societies instead need to focus on attracting productive entrepreneurs and workers as opposed to, for example, inviting post-modernist academics, whose avocation seems to be undermining the West’s core value system.
Our countries do not need warm bodies of any kind, but specific people who can help build our economies, particularly in the competition with China and its authoritarian allies. As they have in the past, immigrants should be welcomed not as expiation for past “colonial” sins, but as contributors to building more resilient and prosperous societies.
Joel Kotkin is the RC Hobbs presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and author, most recently, of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Middle Class.
