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Political leaders would have to work more closely with caucuses to ensure loyalty, and make certain the right policies were being implemented

TORONTO, Ont. /Troy Media/ U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's snap election on June 8 to get a bigger majority government during Brexit didn't pay off.  May could pay the ultimate price and her fate should be a lesson to Canadian political parties.

May's Conservatives ended up with a minority government (318 out of 650 seats), and she hastily set up an arrangement with the 10-seat Democratic Unionist Party to stay in power.

Nevertheless, May's future remains on very shaky ground.  After all she attempted to do, and failed to accomplish, her head could be on the political chopping block.

Why?  The United Kingdom, like several other countries that use the Westminster parliamentary democracy system (i.e. Australia and New Zealand), conduct leadership reviews or spill motions.

Party leaders can be tossed out of their positions if they lose the confidence of their party caucuses.  Although a snap leadership review is used very sparingly, it remains a powerful political tool in difficult and/or controversial situations.

For example, Australian prime minister Julia Gillard lost a 2013 Labour Party leadership spill 57-45 to her closest rival, former PM Kevin Rudd.  This effectively ended her party leadership and she resigned as prime minister the next day.

Another Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, faced two Liberal Party leadership spill motions in 2015.  He survived the first one in February (by a 61-39 vote), and then lost in September (by a 54-44 vote) to his nation's current leader, Malcolm Turnbull.

And, in the most pertinent example, U.K. prime minister Margaret Thatcher came up four votes short on the first ballot of a 1990 Conservative Party leadership challenge against Michael Heseltine.  The legendary Iron Lady resigned in tears shortly thereafter.

Will May follow in the footsteps of her country's first (and only other) female prime minister?  Time will tell.

Some countries using the Westminster system don't emphasize leadership reviews in particular, Canada.

Our country had a long-standing tradition of leadership reviews.  Some fascinating political scenarios led to John Diefenbaker's collapse in 1966, Joe Clark's fall from grace in 1983, and nearly led to John Turner's downfall in 1986.

Yet, as Conservative MP (and former leadership candidate) Michael Chong pointed out in a Feb. 11, 2015, National Post op-ed, "MPs gave up that practice, influenced by the American system where voters elect a party leader and a president."  This helped create a hybrid of a "presidential style of government on a Westminster parliamentary democracy" with an "[a]lmost absolute power for party leaders and little power for elected MPs."

Chong noted, "in other Westminster parliaments, when the leader is in question, MPs call on the leader to resign. … In Canada, when the leader is in question, MPs resign."  He cited the 12 Canadian Alliance MPs who "resigned or were booted from" caucus during Stockwell Day's leadership, and the two MLAs who resigned from Alberta premier Alison Redford's caucus.

"Political self-immolation has become the final recourse for MPs in Canada who oppose powerful party leaders," wrote Chong, and it is "the final act of the powerless."

Did Canada ultimately make the right decision?  In certain ways, no.

Reviving leadership reviews would inject an important democratic principle back into the Canadian political system.  It's often a party caucus's best political ally: it can be called suddenly, immediately and without warning.  If done effectively and correctly, there's little time for a leader (and their caucus allies) to react and prepare.

While these snap reviews wouldn't end leadership scuffles, they would surely stop them from happening on a regular basis.

Our political leaders would also have to listen and work more closely with their party caucuses to ensure loyalty.  They would have to be constantly on their toes to make certain the right political ideas and policies are being implemented, too.  If not, they would face the wrath of their party caucuses.

It's high time that they should in Canada, again.

Photo Credit: Montreal Gazette

Troy Media columnist and political commentator Michael Taube was a speechwriter for former prime minister Stephen Harper.

© 2017 Distributed by Troy Media

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The headlines everywhere are about how the "newly independent" Senate is suddenly obstructionist.  It's a curious term considering that there is little evidence that they are actually holding up government legislation, nor have they outright defeated a single bill, but media narratives can be self-perpetuating, so maybe it behoves us to delve a little deeper into what is going on, so that we can sort out some of these rapidly metastasizing myths.

To begin with, amending bills are generally not actually being obstructionist.  Yes, more bills are being amended now on the whole, but as a proportion of bills historically speaking, it's still on the low side.  Amending bills is one of the primary functions of the Senate in its legislative capacity, and given that the government has accepted a number of those amendments would suggest that perhaps that those bills were indeed flawed the first time around.

But they didn't amend nearly as many bills under the Harper years, you might cry.  Does that mean that the Trudeau government is drafting poorer-quality bills?  The answer to that is no, because once Harper had a majority in the Senate, he used an illegitimate whip to ensure that his senators would pass bills unamended except in rare circumstances where they agreed that a legitimate error was made and had the opportunity to fix it as a government amendment.  What you will find, however, is that a number of highly problematic (read: almost certainly unconstitutional) bills were passed, but that the Senate committees would end up attaching "observations" to the bills so that there was a record that the problems were identified, so that when that legislation was challenged before the courts and much of it was there was a record that Parliament did find problems, even if they didn't have the votes to amend it.

This is an important step that people overlook the need for there to be a record so that when a court has to decide what the will of parliament was in passing a bill, and that is a consideration that comes up an awful lot when judges are asked to interpret laws, they need to know what the discussion was.  It's also one of the reasons why the Senate has held additional hearings into bills that the House of Commons sped through the process, like the trans rights bill.  Senators knew that the legislation would inevitably be challenged in the courts, so they made sure to hear from the bill's opponents so that there was a record that they'd heard the concerns and dismissed them.  It wasn't about validating those points of view, nor was it about "obstructing" the swift passage the legislation.  It was about ensuring that the process was followed properly because it matters when these things wind up before the courts.

The "obstructionist" narrative has recently been applied a great deal with the budget implementation bill, mysteriously given that the bill hadn't even been debated for three days when the headlines started saying that it was "stuck" in the Senate, or that they were "holding it up."  There was a legitimate debate to be had about whether the Senate has the power to split bills deemed to be omnibus (and most budget implementation bills are omnibus by nature the debate tends to fall on whether it's an abuse of omnibus powers or not), and the fact that this motion came to the floor of the chamber suddenly had the country's pundit class reaching for their pearls, and possibly swooning onto a fainting couch.  How dare they touch a budget bill!  Err, except the very first bill of this parliament, being the Supplementary Estimates, a money bill, was sent to the Senate without crucial financial schedules and needed to be sent back, which was them catching the Commons' mistakes yet again.  Like they're supposed to.

As for who is doing the "obstructing," the numerical breakdown has shown that it is largely the Conservatives in the chamber (not a surprise the opposition is supposed to oppose), as well as the Senate Liberals, who are not giving their ideological fellows a free ride when it comes to the legislation they're putting forward.  But the Senate Liberal objections may have deeper meaning than most people see on the surface.

One of the ongoing issues with the Senate is the persistent concern that there is an attempt to abandon its Westminster character and to abolish the official opposition, so that you will eventually have a chamber that is either full of 100 "loose fish" at worst, or a handful of small interest groups that qualify under the new caucus rules at best, rather than partisan groupings.  Not only would that be a very bad thing for accountability going forward, as ideological scrutiny is just as important as legislative scrutiny, but it weakens the Senate's overall functionality.

With so many new appointments that are in the "independent" category who, despite their enthusiasm to put their own stamp on legislation, remain very deferential to the government and the House of Commons, and it is the more veteran senators who are trying to ensure that the freedoms and privileges of the Senate are not lost in the rush to non-partisanship.  That so many were appointed at once stresses the ability of the Senate to integrate them effectively, replaying the travesty of the 2008 mass-appointment under Harper that brought in a number of new senators who were told from day one that they were subject to the whip of the PMO something that was out of bounds.  While the new senators aren't being told they are under a whip, they are instead in danger of being susceptible to more insidious attempts to weaken the Senate's independence and ability to hold the government to account.  If any of the attempts to resist this undermining of the Senate is seen as obstruction, then maybe we need a better calibration of the issues that are at stake.  It's not about the passage of a few bills it's about the health of a vital parliamentary institution going forward.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The recently concluded CPC leadership race was a sustained upsurge of insanity that baffled the country's best satirists and comedians, befuddled journalists, and hopefully forced the party establishment to confront a few hard truths about who its members are, if only for a few blessed moments.

We need only look at the still-flaming wreckage of not a few presumptive front-runner campaigns that tried and failed to take advantage of the post-Harper vacuum and rudely drag the party in one direction or another.

The air was so full of conflicting polls, memes, talking points and prefabricated outrage that the only responsible thing to do was to throw your hands up in confusion, pop some popcorn and watch the show unfold.

Those who made predictions or attempted to control this madness only ended up looking foolish or found themselves stripped of their dignity against their will.  I myself fell victim to this when with Kevin O'Leary still in the race at the time I claimed that Andrew Scheer had not a hope in hell of becoming leader.  Two days later, O'Leary was out done in by the harsh response of the Canadian electorate and the party faithful.  (In my defence, I did manage to correctly predict that being unable to connect with the rank-and-file would be O'Leary's biggest challenge.)

Luckily for me, I do not derive my employment from the business of prediction and punditry, unlike the blinkered journalists who claimed to have missed entirely Scheer's momentum and the quiet efforts of social conservatives to elect him, and frustrated shame-based "entrepreneurs" like Scott Gilmore who thought the time was ripe to cash in on Red Tory discontent and embarrassment.

Being wrong now and again is not the cataclysmic and professionally disastrous event that these terminally insecure hacks believe it to be.

Similarly, there's nothing wrong with a outpouring of insanity every now and then, especially from a party that had been consistently forced to self-censor itself all through the Harper decade, convinced that an errant tweet or slip of the tongue could and would rip the party apart.

And in this race, all of the various campaigns that ran on change of one sort or another, from Kellie Leitch to Michael Chong, fell victim one by one to this same hateful self-consciousness.

In some cases, the so-called professionals in charge fooled themselves into thinking their obsessively repeated "messages" would carry the day without actually putting in the legwork.

In others, internal politicking and attempts to save face snuffed out any actual momentum.

Still others felt they had something to prove, or had to regain something they lost in 2015.

But ultimately, all of these efforts fell short for the same reason they were conceived in a place of insecurity.  Comparatively speaking, then, Andrew Scheer's dimpled determination makes him look like a Zen warrior.

But can Scheer remain as steady and unflappable as our Star Wars sock wearing, wedding-photobombing, yoga-posing, handstanding, selfie-taking Prime Minister under the withering assault of the Liberal forces?

It'll be hard to match the basedness of a man who can, without irony, claim that he is standing up for "Canadian Values" while Kellie Leitch is being pilloried for doing the same, but if anyone can do it, it's Scheer.

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Finally, the gloves are off.  That's what most New Democrats who decided to watch last weekend's leadership debate in St. John's thought as they watched the contestants actually debate.

Because many were rightfully wondering if this debate was worth watching, considering what had happened during the first three debates and especially since the only one who seemed interested in sparring, Pat Stogran, had abandoned his quest for the NDP crown.  If they didn't tune in though, they missed a good one.

From the start, Guy Caron showed that he was ready to rumble.  He used his opening statement to challenge all of his opponents on a specific point.  He challenged Angus to explain how being pragmatic over being aspirational was going to win over Canadians, he pointed out that Singh was late to the race and had yet to commit to run federally, win or lose.  Caron singled out Ashton's lack of specifics regarding solutions to tackle precarious work and he wondered where Peter Julian would get the $100 billion for his free tuition and social housing plan.

It took some time for the other candidates to get warmed up, but they eventually did.  One of the most interesting points in the debate happened when Charlie Angus picked up where Caron left off and asked Jagmeet Singh if he was with the Federal Party for the long run, if he was going to run federally no matter what.  Singh danced around the issue, stating that as a New Democrat, he was already working to elect New Democrats at all levels and jurisdictions.  Faced with this non-answer, Angus pushed back and Singh lost his cool, wagging his finger at Charlie, reminding him that it was "not his turn."

Angus also went after Ashton on the practicality of her proposal regarding free tuition, especially considering it is a provincial jurisdiction.  Neither her nor Julian could really explain how free tuition would work.

There was a deep, thoughtful exchange which policy geeks thoroughly enjoyed when Ashton went after Caron's signature policy on basic income, pointing out that it had also been proposed by right-wing politicians like Kathleen Wynne.  Caron defended his proposal fairly well, with a detailed explanation of his model and its advantages over other basic income plans.  Caron didn't leave it there, he immediately counter-attacked, once again wondering where were Ashton's specifics on policies to fight poverty.

Finally, Niki Ashton and Peter Julian went really hard after Singh on the Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, demanding his position here and now.  Singh dodged and deferred, saying he needed more time to consult with stakeholders and with Notley's Alberta government and Horgan's soon-to-be government.  Singh was able to buy some time by using some Mulcair-like language about balancing environment and economical interests of both provinces, but his lack of position will be hard to sustain in the long run.

Pipeline politics is clearly the most explosive issue of the leadership race.  The BC and Alberta wings are at odds and it offers an immediate, bold contrast with Justin Trudeau, a contrast that Julian and Ashton are clearly eager to establish.

Kudos to party officials, who decided to change the format in order to allow more exchanges and brought in a new segment dubbed "Question Period" to let candidates ask questions of their own.  The candidates were a bit tentative at times and they still agreed on a lot of things, but there is no question that there has been a shift in the tone of the race.  The silly season might have started on Parliament Hill, but New Democrats are now digging into very serious business.  Differences and contrasts will now be the order of the day.  That's a good thing.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


A big lead in the polls doesn't necessarily mean a bigger majority in Parliament. You must ensure the leader is prepared and your policies have meat on the bone

TORONTO, Ont. /Troy Media/ Last week's general election in the United Kingdom provided some important lessons for western democracies, including Canada.

When Theresa May was elected to replace David Cameron as Conservative leader and U.K. prime minister last July, many political observers had high hopes.

They promoted her as the second coming of the late Margaret Thatcher, even though her ideological leanings were much softer than the Iron Lady's.  May has been described as a "liberal-conservative" and "one-nation Conservative," or someone who believes the state should protect citizens from all walks of life.

They also thought she would be an excellent choice to lead her country during the process when Britain leaves the European Union, or Brexit.  With no disrespect to May's leadership skills, it's puzzling that someone who was aligned with the Remain campaign would be touted for this important role.

Regardless, May had a successful run.  She enjoyed a 20-point lead over the opposition Labour Party and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn.  He's an uber-leftist who supports high taxes, wealth redistribution and nationalizing institutions like the railways, energy companies and post office.

With everything seemingly in the government's favour, May called a snap election for June 8.  If successful, the Tories would have commanded a bigger parliamentary majority.  Achieving a "hard" Brexit, which would have given Britain complete border control, the ability to arrange new trade deals, and ease in abandoning the single market and customs union, would have been that much easier, too.

Alas, May's day turned out to be more of a Mayday.

The PM was a huge political liability, worse than anyone imagined.  She performed poorly on the campaign trail and looked weak against Corbyn (who handled himself surprising well for the entire election) during the TV debates.  Her policy platform was often short on details, and some proposals after the Manchester and London terror attacks (i.e. Internet regulation, reduced immigration, changes to human rights legislation) were immediately condemned.

Plus, a significant number of British voters lost faith in her.  Calling an election with three years left on her mandate wasn't viewed as a way to deal with Brexit, but rather a selfish strategy to increase her government's influence.

That's why May and the Tories ended up with 318 out of 650 seats.

They now face a minority government situation, or hung Parliament.  The PM hastily made an arrangement with the right-leaning, 10-seat Democratic Unionist Party to save her political neck, although the final details are still being worked out.

What lessons should Canada's political parties learn from this fiasco?

Our country uses the U.K.'s historical Westminster system of government.  While there are some subtle differences Canada stopped using leadership spills, or snap leadership reviews, which remain a popular tactic for May's Tories both countries firmly believe in the cherished principles of parliamentary democracy.

Hence, Canada's political leaders could also see the benefit in calling a snap election, depending on the situation.  There have been times when it worked well (Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien in the 2000 federal election), and occasions where the final result was disastrous (Ontario Liberal premier David Peterson in the 1990 provincial election).

Nevertheless, it's important to ensure a snap election call doesn't turn into a campaign that resembles a snap of your fingers.

A big lead in the polls doesn't necessarily translate into a bigger majority in Parliament.  Therefore, you have to ensure the party leader is fully prepared for a snap election, the party's policies have plenty of meat on the bone, and the party's agenda is understood to be about achieving greater political stability in the House rather than pure personal gain.

In fairness, there aren't any signs that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ever planned to follow May's lead.  But if he ever contemplated a snap election before, he would be wise to stop thinking about it now.

Troy Media columnist and political commentator Michael Taube was a speechwriter for former prime minister Stephen Harper.

© 2017 Distributed by Troy Media

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


On Monday afternoon, Liberal MP Arnold Chan got up in the House of Commons to deliver what sounded very much like a farewell speech.  Chan, who has been suffering from a renewed bout of cancer, had his family in attendance as he offered a love letter to the institution of parliament, and an exhortation to his fellow MPs that it was time to start treating the place with the respect that it deserves, as well as treating one another with greater respect.  While Chan has not announced that he would be resigning his seat, he did say that he wasn't sure how many more twenty-minute speeches he would be able to give, and there was a note of finality to his comments.

Among the points that Chan made about respect and reverence for Parliament and democracy going so far as to praise Green Party leader Elizabeth May for her dedication and constant reminders that MPs follow those rules in the Standing Orders about not speaking disrespectfully about one another was perhaps the most important point of all, which is about the need for parliament to get away from the "canned talking points" that have been hobbling our debates.

"I am not perfect," Chan said.  "I know that sometimes it takes some practice.  There are instances where it is necessary for us to have the guidance and assistance of our staff, the ministries, and of our opposition research.  However, I do not think it gives Canadians confidence in our debates in this place when we formulitically repeat those debates.  It is more important that we bring the experience of our constituents here and impose it upon the question of the day, and to ask ourselves how we get better legislation, how we make better laws."

He's right in many cases, MPs haven't been practicing the art of giving a speech on their feet.  But part of the problem is the twenty-minute speech rule has created a culture where we are using prepared speeches to fill that time rather than allowing more spontaneous debate.  The need to stick to talking points exacerbates this problem, and yes, it becomes a formula.

"We can disagree strongly, and in fact we should," Chan added.  "That is what democracy is about.  However, we should not just use the formulitic talking points.  It does not elevate this place.  It does not give Canadians confidence in what democracy truly means."

That is very much what has happened in our parliament, where debate has been replaced with speechifying, which is further exacerbated by speaking lists that have removed any and all spontaneity from the Chamber.  Speechifying is usually (but not always) more about House Duty than it is about caring about a topic.

A few weeks ago, when Conservative MP Michelle Rempel alerted her followers over Twitter about her slated speaking time in a debate, I remarked how the fact that it could be timed so precisely was indicative of the problems with debate under our current rules.  While she became indignant about the suggestion that she was merely reading points given to her (which I wasn't suggesting I know that she's one of the better MPs who does her own homework), a number of her followers came after me about what was wrong with MPs giving "well-researched speeches" to Parliament about important issues.

But the problem isn't the research it's that speeches aren't debate.  While Rempel may be one of the exceptions to the rule when it comes to listening to previous speakers and incorporating or reacting to what they say, vanishingly few MPs do.  When it comes to the few minutes allotted for questions and comments at the end of a speech, most of the time it's either an opposing MP giving their own canned talking point on the subject, or worse yet, a fellow members of that MP's own party who is just looking to get an approved talking point reiterated.  This is not debate, and it debases Parliament, as Chan points to.

Part of the problem is the way in which the rules around speaking times codified the need to fill time rather than engaging in substantive debate.  Parliamentary blogger Radical Centrist (@procedurepols) went digging into the history of this after my column on the problem we have with debate management in this country, and found that once the rules were changed to limit speaking times to forty minutes in 1927, MPs began using their notes to fill up those forty minutes.  Cut-and-thrust was squelched, and in 1982, they changed the rules to limit speeches to twenty minutes with the added ten minutes for questions and comments in an attempt to bring back cut-and-thrust.  That too has failed.

If this current parliament is looking to honour Chan and his reverence for our Parliament, then it's time to start making a radical restoration to the way we govern our debates.  That means restoring the old Speaker's ruling about not allowing scripts with very few exceptions (like replies to a Speech from the Throne or budget speeches), and notes only being used for technical terminology.  It means getting rid of the speaking lists so MPs need to catch the Speaker's eye if they want to speak, and it means loosening the clock so that they don't feel the need to fill those twenty minutes, but rather can speak extemporaneously on a topic for six to eight minutes, with room in there for interruption for the purposes of debate and "cut-and-thrust," as they still do in Westminster (and to a certain extent in the Canadian Senate).  But above all, we need to get away from the need to always sell the party message, the branded slogan on each issue that otherwise ensure that debates are simply sponsored content rather than substantive dialogue.  Only then can we start to get back to actually debating the issues that matter, rather than selling messages with clips destined for YouTube.

Photo Credit: Toronto Star

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


One of the fun things about moving to Quebec as an anglophone Ontarian were the looks I'd get.  The guy at the bank, the woman behind the counter at the health department, new neighbours.

Like my dog wondering if she's just heard the word "treat", their heads would all get the same familiar tilt.  "Wh—why are you doing this?  No one does this."  You could see it in their eyes, "Alright, pal.  If this is really what you want."

I bring all of this up, after more than two years of living in Montreal, because our premier, Philippe Couillard, has said he's ready to bring Quebec formally into the constitution.  Which would be a nice way to acknowledge the province already operates under the constitution and is a province in Canada.

Which might be making you, dear reader, wonder, "Wh—why are you doing this?  Why now?  God, just let us live our lives."

Bringing Quebec into the constitutional fold would, of course, do the most dreaded of things in this country, re-open the constitution.  Because, this province wouldn't just sign onto the document as it stands, we'd like some changes.  There's more nuance to it than this, but Quebec has five central demands: recognition of Quebec as a distinct society, federal spending power limits, guaranteed Supreme Court representation, a constitutional veto right, and increased immigration control.

But to get that far, the other provinces are going to want to have their say.  Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall wants to revisit an equalization formula that he seems to think is too generous to Quebec.  Alberta PC leader Jason Kenney was quick to chime in agreement.  Who even knows would happen with B.C. once they sort out their whole mess.  And on and on.

Everyone will want something, and don't you people remember Meech Lake, Charlottetown?  My god.  (For the record, I do not.  I was five when the Charlottetown referendum went down, and I have zero recollection of it.)

Besides, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he wants no part of opening up the constitution.  But, even if he did, I don't think any of this national nightmare stuff matters.  Because at the end of Couillard's proposed consultations, nothing will come of this.  This is, like all things, a political play.  The heart of all this is what is so broken at the heart of Quebec politics, whether the province should be a country of its own.  Everything in this place turns, eventually, to the question of whether Quebec should separate from Canada.

You've probably heard how corrupt this province is, and you might even remember the Charbonneau Commission from a while back.  The details of what was found in the endless days of testimony aren't what was important, but generally speaking many high-level provincial Liberals ended up with a certain stink about them.

So you might wonder, with all this smell, how come the Liberals managed to regain power after only one term out of office.  It's pretty simple: The Parti Québécois' star candidate, the billionaire Pierre Karl Péladeau, raised his fist at his introductory press conference and pledged his support for the cause of sovereignty.

The PQ had made a point of not making a point of sovereignty, and practically overnight what looked like a cakewalk of an election turned into an abysmal failure.  Why?  Because outside of an aging core of PQ diehards, few people actually want to separate.  Even though Couillard was a new leader, he was going to have a hell of a time convincing Quebecers that the Liberal Party deserved to be back in the big chair after only a few years in the wilderness.  Instead, the only steadfast federalist party in the province ran away with the thing.

It's hard to look at Quebec politics through a lens any less existential.  Fights over road paving contracts seem so small when compared to whether Canada should continue to exist.

And this is why you in the rest of the country shouldn't feel too alarmed when you see Couillard taking his constitution show on the road over the coming months.  The current PQ leadership has said flat out they aren't looking for a referendum any time soon.  But once the idea of putting Quebec in the constitution in some formal way might just be enough to relight the PQ's sovereigntist instincts.

That's why Canada shouldn't worry too much about the constitutional rattlings coming from Quebec.  It's not a show for you, it's a show for us.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


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The election of Andrew Scheer is setting up the stage for the 2019 election, and the other parties are scrutinizing the new arrival, adjusting their tactics and strategies with less than 30 months to go before the 43rd election.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals were surprised by Scheer's election.  The ruling Liberals were assuming Maxime Bernier was going to be their opponent, as did many observers.  After all, Bernier was leading in key indicators such as fundraising and polling numbers, and the previous presumed front runner Kevin O'Leary had withdrawn in his favour.

Liberal hacks, back in their Ottawa war room, were blasting out emails denouncing Bernier's policies, framing him as a right-wing extremist, an enemy of farmers and reminding all who would pay attention about his separatist past.  A few Liberal operatives even made the trek to Etobicoke to spin and spread the Liberal message to media and observers.

They had to change their tune at the last hour, when Scheer came back from behind to win on the 13th and final ballot.  So the Liberal target changed and the tactics will evolve, but the strategy will remain the same: paint the new Tory Leader as scary and dangerous, hoping that another fear campaign will yield another victory for the Liberal Party of Canada.

"He won because of the social conservative wing of the party so he will be under pressure to reopen those debates," MP Pablo Rodriguez said.  "He's somebody who wants to be in charge of the thought police," MP Adam Vaughan added.  They'll accuse him of wanting to turn the clock back on progress, of being Stephen Harper with a smile.

But that smile might actually work for the new Conservative Leader.  It will blunt the attacks.

Scheer is a young, affable, sociable family man.  He has a good sense of humour, which he showcased on Saturday, giving the funniest speech at the Press Gallery Dinner.  And come on, who in Ottawa is really afraid of Andrew Scheer?

Many New Democrats are.  As they were of Stephen Harper.  The temptation will be strong to focus on the Conservative Leader as the real enemy, in effect playing the Liberal hand for them.

When New Democrats were pondering when to hold the leadership race to replace Thomas Mulcair, an argument kept coming back again and again: let's wait for the Conservatives to elect their new Leader, this will give us a chance to assess their choice and to act accordingly.

At the time, I thought this was ill-advised.  In my opinion, our members will likely not vote for an NDP candidate based on the Conservative leader.  Furthermore, allowing the Conservative Party to choose its new Leader before the NDP would simply set the stage for the classic Blue-Red confrontation, leaving the NDP as the leaderless third wheel while the narrative would be set as Trudeau facing the new Tory Strawman.

So what now?

First, the NDP can breathe a little more comfortably in Quebec and so can the Bloc Québécois.  Had the Tories picked Maxime Bernier, New Democrats would have been really hard pressed to keep their 16 seats.  The Bloc would have had a hard time to re-emerge.  The main opposition to Trudeau in Quebec would have been Maxime Bernier's Conservatives.  With Bernier facing Trudeau and Martine Ouellet as a wild card, the NDP would have had very little space to grow.  This is good news for the four non-Quebecers in the leadership race, who won't face that immense challenge with Scheer, who is basically unknown in Quebec.  Paradoxically, it is also good news for Guy Caron: had Bernier won, many New Democrats would have been tempted to give up on the Quebec candidate and take the geographical advantage of having the sole non-Quebecer running for Prime Minister.

Speaking of geography, Scheer hails from Saskatchewan.  Niki Ashton, from Manitoba, is the only prairie candidate in the NDP leadership race.  This shouldn't have a major impact on her chances.  But Scheer's election does give her a big contrast card to play: against Trudeau and Scheer, she would be the sole woman to be realistically competing for Prime Ministership.  And, as Trudeau himself said, "there is something very special about imagining a female prime minister.  I think it's long overdue.  I just don't think we have to wait that long."  Move along, Kim Campbell, Niki Ashton can fill the Prime Minister's dreams and his shoes!

Had the Tories gone for Lisa Raitt or Kellie Leitch, that card wouldn't be there.  But frankly, there was slim chance of that happening.

But Ashton is not the only one who can play a big contrast card.  Jagmeet Singh can, too.  Singh is the only non-white still standing who can aspire to become Prime Minister.  Deepak Obhrai and Michael Chong could have been that guy.  But frankly, there was slim chance of that happening.

Still, New Democrats love to break barriers.  They did it in the past when they elected Audrey McLaughlin to succeed Ed Broadbent, over former BC Premier Dave Barrett.  McLaughlin became the first female to lead a federal political party in the House of Commons.  For that leap, the NDP was rewarded with 9 seats in 1993 still, 7 better than Kim Campbell, the first female Prime Minister of Canada.

What about Peter Julian and Charlie Angus?  They are no further ahead because of the arrival of Andrew Scheer.  The truth is, they are probably no further behind either.  Sadly, for New Democrats, they wasted a full year waiting for a leadership race outcome that will probably have little to no impact on their own choice in leader.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


There's no such thing as a perfect electoral system, and the best proof can be found by looking at one that purports to be.

I think Andrew Scheer will make a fine leader of the Conservative Party (he fits the formula of a low-risk but high-potential "boring leader" I made the case for last fall), and I don't question the validity of the outcome that produced him last week.  Yet even the satisfied must concede Scheer's victory was generated by a fairly bonkers process.  Any attempt to honestly evaluate the health, demographics, and trends of the Canadian conservative movement circa 2017 must begin by correcting for a number of systemic oddities within the voting system of a party that claims to reflect all of the above.

The Conservative Party's electoral system promised to honor two abstract principles everyone can support in theory: all electoral districts should be treated equal, and the party leader should be elected with a majority of votes.  Both proved deeply difficult to implement in practice, however.

For its egalitarian electoral districts, the party chose to use Canada's existing 338 parliamentary ones, a bad choice given such things are neither equally-populated (the Maritimes in particular have way more seats than they should due to the constitution's insistence that no one gets fewer seats than they have senators — and the Maritimes have way too many senators), nor equally conservative.

Thanks to data surreptitiously obtained by OttWatch's Kevin O'Donnell, who trusts the Canadian public with the intimate details of the Tory election more than the Tories, it's been revealed that 54 ridings — about 16% of the total — cast less than 100 votes each.  The vast majority were from Quebec, where the Conservative Party is notoriously uncompetitive, and included places like Gilles Duceppe's old riding of LaurierSainte-Marie, where the Conservative candidate pulled a whopping 4% in 2015, or GaspésieLes ÃŽles-de-la-Madeleine, where total Conservative Party membership consists of 19 brave souls.

Maxime Bernier swept these ridings, which doesn't reflect too poorly on him, given he swept a number of enormous ridings as well — indeed, the fact he won first-ballot victories in both the smallest riding, Nunvut (voters: 16), and the largest, Medicine HatCardstonWarner (voters: 1,425), reflects well on the broadness of his appeal.  Yet it does go some ways to explaining why when you look beyond the party's "point" system, which is based on riding-by-riding popular vote percentages, and towards the aggregate national popular vote, Scheer's margin of victory (53-47%) looks less ambiguous.

The "Rotten Boroughs" effect is more significant in the case of Michael Chong, who eked out a fifth-place victory despite having run, basically, as a Liberal.  Chong received first ballot victories in only 18 ridings, virtually all of which were located in stereotypically far-left urban centres, including Ottawa Centre, home of Environment Minister Catherine McKenna, and Vancouver East, the riding Libby Davies held for 18 years.  The Conservative electorate was larger in these places than one might expect, though probably due to Chong's own activism.  For all the attention Chong's candidacy received from journalists (who may have been courted by Chong himself, given how much of greater Toronto and Ottawa he won), the only real takeaway from his failed candidacy is that a progressive masquerading as a conservative can be popular in places that vote left — but nowhere else.

On the other end of the spectrum, the 15 districts won by Brad Trost are equally revealing in exposing where that candidate's flavour of right-wing thought — not merely "socially conservative," but across-the-board-dogmatic-on-every-issue — approach plays best.  Unlike Chong, Trost's ridings were generally competitive territory for Conservatives, and, most revealingly, included several of the much-mythologized "very ethnic" ridings of Vancouver, Scarborough, Markham, Richmond, etc.  Many on the Tory left continue to fantasize that a more "inclusive" party is synonymous with a more moderate one.  Trost's results should offer pause.

Honoring the majoritarian victory principle proved no less a challenge.  Though Scheer beat Bernier 62,593 to 55,544 in the popular vote (or 17,221.2 to 16,577.8 in "points"), these figures are rather obtuse, given they were cobbled from 13 rounds of voter redistribution.  Because the party used a ranked ballot, which presumes you should be ecstatic when even your 10th favorite candidate winds up in power, both Bernier and Scheer gained tens of thousands of voters over the course of the evening simply by having been grudgingly tolerable to the voters of their defeated rivals.  By the time he was pushed over the top, Scheer's political destiny was being buoyed by nonsense like the 6th place rankings of Lisa Raitt voters.  They must certainly be pleased?

Man does not hold hierarchies of preference as elaborate as the ranked ballot system demands.  We saw proof in the final tally, which featured around 16% of the popular vote going to no one, thanks to a high number of lesser candidates' voters refusing to rank Scheer or runner-up Bernier at all.  This is a pretty substantial rate of dissent from candidates who, between the two of them, were often presented as offering basically anything a conservative voter could want, and should be kept in mind as Leader Scheer seeks to consolidate a victory that's both more and less decisive than it seems.

Written by J.J. McCullough

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.