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In the last three days of 2017 I received no fewer than 22 electronic fundraising appeals from the NDP whose tone was so ghastly that, even if I were a potential donor, I'd throw my wallet into the ocean before I'd reward such stuff.  G.K. Chesterton once said descriptions of happiness under socialism didn't remind him of any happiness he'd actually felt.  And this blizzard of begging was a perfect example of how what all our mainstream big-government parties expect will excite me leaves me bored and disgusted.

It's partly the familiar problem that the more cleverly manipulative political rhetoric becomes, the more offputtingly manipulative it becomes.  But it's also the strangely inept quality of the manipulation, filled with bogus urgency ("2018 needs to be our year, John") bogus optimism ("We're ready to take things to the next level in 2018") and bogus bonhomie ("John Do you have something planned for New Year's Eve yet?").  No wonder many people preferred the genuinely appalling Donald Trump to such insincerely appallingly chatter.

Shortly before the Christmas flurry, on Dec. 9, the federal NDP brazenly lied that "John, our biggest advantage is supporters like you."  If so I'd hate to see their biggest disadvantage, since I haven't given them a dime since the invention of money, and you'd think they'd know it, and know I knew it.  But I think I already saw their biggest disadvantage: Their horrible rhetoric.

For instance "Your support is helping to build the most ambitious NDP campaign in Ontario history" as if they hadn't always aimed high.  Or "A better Ontario is right around the corner, but we have to fight hard and work together like never before", as if they slacked off last time.  Or "If we get this right, we'll be able to inspire people with plans that offer hope in 2018".  You won't.

I even object to being told all about "Jagmeet".  As we haven't been introduced, he's Jagmeet Singh, Jagmeet Singh Dhaliwal or even Mr. Singh.  (And I'm "Mr. Robson" or "Dr. Robson" to all you political pesterers).  Then consider this Dec. 30 missive from Gurratan Singh: "John, Jagmeet's birthday is coming up soon on January 2 and I've been working on getting him the perfect gift.  I thought about a snowboard.  Or maybe a new bike.  But I know my brother and more than anything, he wants to build a better, more just Canada".  Ugh.

Tommy Douglas once told biographer Doris French Shackleton "You won't find me very interesting.  I never do anything but work."  But I would never entrust political power to people whose idea of fun is that grim and tedious.  Like Scrooge in his cold counting house until 7:00 on Christmas Eve, they're stuffing manifestoes into envelopes on "festive" occasions and would make us too if they could.

Hence the birthday message struck them as such a successful lark that a follow-up from "Nader" chortled "John, I know our team likes to have fun.  So when Gurratan said he wanted to send out an email for Jagmeet's birthday, I was all for it.  But now, I need to be serious for a minute because we're still $81,000 away from our crucial end-of-year fundraising goal…"

Frankly they might extort a few bucks from me by promising never to have "fun" in my presence again.  Especially this "poem" the federal NDP sent Dec. 21.

"To build a big, amazing team/ And fulfill our real, important dream/ We need support this time of year/ To cross the country with love and cheer/ We need your help to get ahead/ In parliament (and gingerbread)/ Will you donate?/ It's not too late./ To help us make Canada great!"

Whatever comic virtue doggerel can ever have depends on it rhyming and scanning.  This damp squib doesn't.

It's meant to go da-DAH da-DAH da-DAH da-DAH, the "iambic tetrameter" of such classics as "Stop that Ball".  (Other possibilities are Dr. Seuss favourites amphibrachic tetrameter: "there ONCE was a GIRL bird named GERtrude McFUZZ" and anapestic: "Now the STAR-Belly SNEEtches had BELLies with STARS".)  But the NDP's first couplet wouldn't work even without "real" because "fulfill" doesn't take a stress on the 1st syllable.  The second needs "land" not country.  And while the third, amazingly, is right, the fourth relies on the country being called CaNAda and for bad measure channels Donald Trump.  (The former would again be easily fixed: "To help make Canada be great.")

Of course not everyone enjoys doggerel.  But only someone with no idea what enjoyment is would send out this soggy mess to lighten the mood.  So here's a heads-up for politicians.  Canadians will happily work hard for a better future.  But precisely because we value genuine good cheer:

The more you show what you find fun, the more your parties we will shun.

Photo Credit: Toronto Star

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Here we are then, at the wind-blasted start to a frigid new year.  Twenty-eighteen has still got that new-mouth feel to it, so it's time to guess what's going to happen while we still struggle to write the correct date on our post-New Year's Snaps.

Even though I'm a really, really good prognosticator — I only got three guesses completely wrong last year!* — I think you all should know that despite the copious amounts of, uh, science I'm doing to make these predictions, they aren't guarantees of the year to come.  I'm not Nostrodamus.  If I was, I'd have a show on the History Channel by now.

But I think I've got a solid enough track record, on par with a decent-but-not-great batting average, that this is a worthwhile exercise.  So let's go on a journey, through the crystal ball, into the mists of the near future, and see what 2018 has in store for us.

  • Jetpacks will drop significantly in price this year, at long last.  Unfortunately we're talking those lame jetpacks that lift you using the power of lake water sucked through a big hose you see in those Facebook videos that get popular every few weeks.  Ah well, maybe the dream will come true in 2019!
  • There's an Ontario election this year, and as tempting as it is to rule out Kathleen Wynne and her Liberal party for being desperately unpopular, I just can't.  I don't think Ontarians like her or her government very much, but I don't know that they like anyone else enough to actually do anything about that dislike.  Patrick Brown seems like a decent alternative, but there's more than enough internal strife in the Progressive Conservatives to sink their hopes.  And the NDP? Andrea Horwath made such a hash of her last election — "dirty diesel trains" comes to mind — there isn't much reason to put faith in her this time around.  As absurd as it might seem, I'm betting on another Wynne mandate.
  • CBC will premiere another period detective drama.  Presuming there is more blood to be squeezed from this barren stone, the twist will be this show will take place in, say Calgary?  Vancouver?  Eh, it doesn't really matter, they'll film it in Toronto anyway.
  • Justin Trudeau will not take a phenomenally stupid vacation in the first couple months of the year.  Chastised by the ethics commissioner just before Christmas, the prime minister will have absorbed the lesson offered — accepting extravagant gifts from the very rich looks bad.  Come, say, April all bets are off.  Trudeau's shown very little agility when correcting his mistakes, so it's probably only a matter of time before he shows up in a nude kitesurfing pyramid with Richard Branson in the waters off the billionaire's private island.
  • Donald Trump will say something fantastically dumb.  So dumb, and so untrue, you will literally not believe what you've just heard/read.  Two days later, you will have forgotten this absurdly dumb-false thing when he does something even dumber and way falser.  And onward the clock will spin.
  • Canada will further bungle it's attempts to buy fighter aircraft and navy ships.  We've gone for years trying to replace our rotting ships and our rickety aircraft.  This government, like all governments before it, can't help but screw this up.  We're going to end up with so many F-35s at the end of this, and we're going to buy them in such a panic, we'll pay way too much for them.  It's the Canadian way.
  • Kevin O'Who?
  • This year, I'm putting my money where my mouth is and buying a 6/49.  So, this year's 6/49 second drawing in February will be: 02-11-18-23-34-42 with a bonus number of 09.  Looking forward to splitting the prize with all of you!  (Wait a second…)
  • Quebecers also go to the polls this year, and I don't see Phillipe Coullard's Liberal government sticking around.  Which is weird, because the economy is doing really well, and the province seems to have a renewed sense of confidence.  You'd think this would be good for the current government, but I have a feeling it's bad news.  Quebecers aren't so hung up on sovereignty anymore, so we might actually get an election about something else.  As good as things are going, people don't like Coullard, he's got an off-putting aloofness, that borders on arrogance.  People are tired of the Parti Québécois' constant separation drum beat, and Jean-François Lisée is way too keen to let everyone know how giant his brain is.  So, this might be the province's chance to choose the third-party Coalition Avenir Québec, led by François Legault.  I think this is finally his year.
  • Extra Terrestrials will land on this planet.  They will choose Elizabeth May to be humanity's representative in the Etherial Senate of the Fourth Dimension.  Why?  It's hard to be sure, these are aliens after all, but don't rule out something to do with WiFi.
  • Andrew Scheer's love of popcorn will become a major political scandal, when it's revealed he prefers American-made popcorn.  This clear act of betrayal — nay, treason, will see him fired out of a cannon across the St. Lawrence into Upstate New York.

There it is, your year ahead, laid out in iron-clad form.  What could go wrong?  Nothing!  Nothing at all!

*The three most consequential. Ahem.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as we all know, is blessed with a bountiful bevy of totally awesome political skills: he poses brilliantly for photo ops, he knows how to be adored by fawning millennials and he's second to none when it comes to offering weepy public apologies.

Yet for all that, there's one key political skill Trudeau lacks: he can't do the "dance of the honest man."

And if you haven't heard of this dance, let me explain that it's actually a metaphor, which the late and legendary American political consultant Arthur Finkelstein (who was also my good friend and mentor) dreamed up to explain how politicians should react when faced with questions regarding their ethics or integrity.

Basically, Finkelstein's point was that politicians answering such questions should always put themselves in the shoes of an average, everyday voter.

In other words, politicians should understand that average, everyday voters want to believe their leaders are essentially honest people, that they're not out to fleece the system.

Hence, politicians dealing with issues related to ethics must reassure voters with the "dance of the honest man."

That's to say if there's an ethical breach on a politician's watch, he or she should react with an appropriate amount of indignation and outrage, so that he or she appears to be in sync with the public's indignation and outrage.

And if a particular politician is perceived to have personally committed an ethical lapse, the dance requires an appearance of genuine contrition and remorse.

So how does all this apply to Trudeau?

Well, to be blunt, the Prime Minister can't dance.

Just consider Trudeau's recent brush with the Ethics Commissioner, who ruled the prime minister had breached the government's conflict of interest guidelines when he accepted an invitation to spend Christmas vacation on a billionaire's private island resort.

For a regular voter, when a politician breaks the rules in such a manner, it's a serious matter.

Yet Prime Minister Trudeau didn't seem the least bit sorry.

In fact, if anything his initial reaction was to downplay his breach.

As, he told the media, "For me to look for a place to have a quiet vacation, where I can have quality family time, is something we all look for with our families."

Nothing to see here folks.

Nor does the Prime Minister require his cabinet colleagues do the dance.

We saw this in the case of Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who spent a huge of amount of time in 2017 fending off accusations related to his personal finances.

More specifically, the Finance Minister was attacked for not selling off his shares in Moreau Shepell — his family business — or for not putting his corporate holdings in a blind trust.

What gave these attacks some sting, of course, was that the Liberal government proposed a pension bill that could have financially benefited his company, leading to allegations that Morneau was in a conflict of interest.

Now, from the point of view of an average voter, Morneau's situation would certainly look fishy.

As a result, if the Finance Minister had any degree of political savvy, he'd do the dance of an honest man.

In other words, he would concede that he had a mistake, he would offer up a sincere-sounding apology and he would ask Canadians to forgive his failure to do the right thing.

But Morneau didn't do any of that.

Instead, throughout his whole ordeal, Morneau was defiant; he basically declared he didn't do anything wrong, and that he would sue anyone who suggested otherwise.

And even when, under pressure, he eventually did sell his shares, he adopted the mantle of a martyr.

In short, Morneau kept portraying himself as the victim.

Needless to say, this did little to repair his image or to restore his credibility.

The point I'm making here, is that when dealing with allegations of wrong-doing, both Moreau and Trudeau seemed more annoyed than repentant.

And from a political perspective, that simply makes a bad situation worse.

By the way, I'm not saying Trudeau and Morneau have to be genuinely contrite; all I'm suggesting is they at least give the appearance of contriteness.

In the words of George Burns, "Sincerity if you can fake that, you've got it made."

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


On New Year's Day, BuzzFeed UK posted a lengthy analysis piece about how the UK Parliament is seeing a movement by its backbench MPs to take back control of Parliament after growing influence and power from its prime minister and government.  Given that the most common complaint about our own Parliament in Canada is that power is so centralized that we have a "court government" and backbenchers are often described as being cowed or powerless (sometimes by their own admission), what are the chances that we may see a similar rebalancing of power here?

To start with, we need to be mindful of some of the differences between how the Parliaments in Westminster and Ottawa operate.  In many ways, the backbenchers in the UK are far more empowered than their Canadian counterparts, simply because there are far more of them 650 MPs in the UK versus 338 in Canada, with the UK having a fixed Cabinet size to Canada's more variable one.  Because there are so many fewer opportunities for someone in Westminster to make it into Cabinet, as compared to a roughly one-in-three chance of being a minister or Parliamentary Secretary in Ottawa, it creates a more independent UK backbench from the start.  They know that their chances are slim, so there's less incentive for them to suck up to the PM, particularly if they are in a relatively "safe" seat, meaning they can push back more often.

Part of how this Westminster push has come about is also because their Speaker, John Bercow, has made it his mission to further empower MPs, and he's been rewarded by being returned as Speaker by those MPs on a couple of occasions now.  In Ottawa, the focus during Speaker elections tends to be on Question Period and decorum, and it's one that the current Speaker, Geoff Regan, is taking seriously.  And he's made progress decorum is far better in the Commons now than it was during the whole of the previous Conservative government (despite the bellyaching that still happens about it), but he hasn't done much for the whole empowering MPs.  The problem there, of course, is that he's constrained by what the Standing Orders allow him to do, and how much leeway they give him.  But you know who can change those Standing Orders?  Why, the backbench MPs, if they so choose.

One of the things that Bercow has made a point of during his Speakership is to revive the practice of Urgent Questions, that can call a minister to the Commons to answer questions on a specific issue that, as the name implies, requires the urgent consideration by MPs.  This increasing use of UQs in Westminster formed part of the BuzzFeed analysis of how backbenchers were taking back control.  This is one of those areas where Canadian MPs find themselves at a disadvantage, because we have no capacity for Urgent Questions in our rules.  What we do have, however, is a much more free-form Question Period on a daily basis.  Whereas the UK's Oral Questions are targeted to specific ministers on days other than Wednesdays, which are devoted to Prime Minister's Questions, there is less opportunity to quiz ministers about the issues of the day, which may be an advantage to Canada.  That said, given that our QP rules are rigid and a disincentive to substantive debate, that advantage may evaporate upon greater reflection.

I would also note that one of the reforms that the UK is considering is giving more power to backbenchers to recall Parliament during a recess, particularly around the practice of UQs during those times when the House isn't sitting.  Given that we don't have UQs in Canada, I'm not sure this is a practice that merits too much consideration here for the time being.

Backbenchers have more control of the Westminster Select Committees than they do in Canada, and this has been reinforced by changes that allow the chairs to be elected by secret ballot of the entire Commons rather than the committees themselves.  While this, along with the fact that Select Committees don't include parliamentary secretaries or Shadow Ministers, it means they operate more independently than our committees do.

One area that Canada does have over the UK is the way in which our Private Members Business is structured, where MPs have a few more structural advantages thanks to changes made in Canada over successive parliaments, which is to create a guaranteed ability for MPs to have their bills or motions debated.  The rules provide for an hour every day allotted to private members' business, and for it to be strictly time allocated so that they move through the process in a relatively expeditious manner, with the order of precedence determined by a lottery as a way of ensuring fairness.

But this is where we can see some of the dark sides of backbench empowerment creeping in.  For starters, there is a growing expectation that there should be a greater focus on private members' business, which starts to blur the role of MPs.  They are not supposed to be American-style lawmakers, but rather are supposed to hold government to account, and these bills and motions are supposed to be a tool to do so, rather than a competing legislative process.  Add to that, the drama this past fall with NDP MP Sheila Malcolmson forcing the Commons to vote by secret ballot to allow her bill to be debated despite it being declared out of order, because the government had their own similar bill, strikes me as a very dangerous blurring of lines.

The UK is not immune to this blurring, particularly as their confidence conventions are increasingly removed from the ability to defeat a government thanks to their Fixed Term Parliaments Act.  When their government lost a vote on a foreign policy matter around military intervention in Syria without triggering a loss of confidence (as it should have been considered a matter thereof), that starts to dismantle some of the key tenets of Responsible Government, which is what any empowerment of backbenchers should keep in mind.  I'm not sure that all aspects being contemplated do that.

So can Canadian backbenchers become better empowered as their UK counterparts are?  In a word, yes, but that comes with the proviso that MPs need to want to push for it.  As we have seen repeatedly over the past few years, MPs have little appetite to use the power that they already have that empowers them to do the kinds of things that UK MPs are doing to take more control.  It's a matter of education, and working together but they need to want to do it.  That's what we haven't seen enough evidence of here yet.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


I faintly remember a time where I had a bit of optimism about Question Period.  After a decade of the exercise being continually debased with a collection of non-sequitur talking points being read off of sheets of paper, a new government that talked about respecting Parliament had taken charge, and most of the ministers in the new Cabinet appeared to be making an effort to look like they weren't reading.  Sure, some of them were a bit formulaic, but that wasn't wholly unexpected.  We had a PM who appeared to be making an effort to show up and answer questions, and we had opposition leaders who seemed to want to set a more respectful tone in the way they asked questions.  It was a refreshing change.

By the end of 2017, there is a definite sense that things are on the decline once again, possibly to the point of plumbing new depths.  I'm not talking about decorum that's one thing that has improved significantly since the last parliament, and between the Liberals' clapping ban, and a Speaker who is making a great effort to name and shame repeat offenders so much so that he actually had one MP removed from the Chamber for refusing to pipe down, for the first time in longer that I've been in the Press Gallery we no longer have a QP that is dominated by jeering, hooting baboons.  So, small victories.

No, things took a turn for the worse when we got a change in leadership in the opposition ranks.  Thomas Mulcair, when he got demoted to "interim" leader for the better part of a year-and-a-half, went from someone with a (somewhat overblown) reputation for prosecutorial eloquence to someone whose bitter sarcasm and vitriol left a bad taste in everyone's mouths.  His replacement has refused to seek a seat, and that leaves another placeholder in his stead who makes a good effort, but for whom we cannot take as seriously as someone who will be taking that fight into the next election.

For the Conservatives, however, things have backslid to a shambolic mess that is painful to watch.  Under Rona Ambrose, there was a fair share of overwrought questions and hyperbolic rhetoric, but there was a range of questions every day, and there was an actual attempt to look like there was an exercise in accountability going on.  Scheer has backed away from that entirely.  The questions are no longer overwrought they are disingenuous to the point of being mendacious.  Facts have been so distorted that they treat everyone watching like idiots, because even the most cursory fact-checking will show that the resemblance to reality is barely even tenuous.  Most of the time, the connections they try to draw with their questions make conspiracy theories look better researched.  And then there is the attempt to be provocateurs, with ill-considered moves like trying to put Rachael Harder into chair of the Status of Women committee and then complaining that the Liberals are sexist for opposing the choice, while trying to both fan the flames of the weaponization of free speech on campus at the same time as backing away from the alt-right's mouthpieces in Canada.  Scheer's trying to brand himself as a Dollarama knock-off Anne Coulter that doesn't quite fit with the "positive politics" he professed during his leadership bid, but that's not the worst part.

What Scheer has done to debase QP more than anything is his tactic of trying to make repetition his tool of choice.  We have to sit through the same question over, and over, and over, and over.  And over.  Each repetition gets more hysterical than the previous one.  Apparently, this is Scheer's version of playing the long game, trying to "build a narrative" through constant repetition of the same dishonest portrayal of the facts that puts into practice the line that if you repeat a lie often enough it starts to sound like the truth.  Any attempt to get any accountability in QP anymore is gone.  Now it's all about trying to get clips of Trudeau not answering the questions put to him with the full knowledge that these questions are either unanswerable or are traps designed to be used against him and most of the actual issues of the day of real consequence aren't being asked at all.  We've gone through two Auditor General's reports now where the subject matter was barely touched in QP.  And somehow this is supposed to be an exercise in holding government to account.

As for the government?  The attempt to answer questions has been curtailed with a sense of risk aversion that has morphed into an instinct to respond to every and all questions with a heap of pabulum.  They don't even start to engage on the issues, or fight back against the false narratives being put around them, until it's far too late.  Whether it's with Harjit Sajjan's "architect" boast, the filibusters in the spring about proposed parliamentary reforms, the CCPC tax changes this summer, or Bill Morneau's conflict disclosures over the fall, the government doesn't fight back until it's too late.  And those talking points are even more repetitive than the questions being asked, so when they do finally respond the way they should have on day one, those of us listening are already at the point of being willing to gnaw off a limb to get out of the bear trap that we find ourselves in, observing it without tuning out.

This isn't the way that things are supposed to happen.  Wooden exchanges of scripted questions and answers that made life so intolerable between 2011 and 2015 were bad enough, but monotonous mendacity versus pabulum is making this an exercise in tedium.  I long for the days when Bob Rae was the able to extemporaneously stand up and give some real accountability, with wit and wry humour.  That's not something I'm sure that Andrew Scheer is capable of, and it's more the pity.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Aside from the fickleness of the modern voter, the Liberals have done a superb job in starting to dig their political graves

After a wonderful and relaxing Christmas, my thoughts turn to politics (as they often do).  In particular, why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will find 2018 to be just as challenging as 2017.

The PM's political honeymoon pretty much ended late this year, and many Canadians are considering political alternatives.  We shouldn't be surprised: aside from the fickleness of the modern voter, the Liberals have done a superb job in starting to dig their political graves.

The Trudeau government, unlike the more fiscally responsible Liberal governments under Jean Chretien and Paul Martin, is closely aligned with the old tax-and-spend agenda that drives Canadians up the proverbial wall.  The inability to keep spending in check, rein in the deficit (breaking a major campaign promise), the $10.5-million payout to war criminal Omar Khadr, wasting valuable time and resources to create a "progressive" North American Free Trade Agreement, unnecessarily delaying the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and not arranging an important trade deal with China, among other things, have helped reduce voter confidence.

That's only the tip of the political iceberg.  When it comes to openness and transparency, the Trudeau Liberals seem to be just as bad (or worse) than the Conservative government led by Stephen Harper was ever accused of being.

In one notable example, Finance Minister Bill Morneau's decision to not put his substantial assets in a blind trust has deservedly earned much public ridicule.  This includes the story of his mysterious French villa, which wasn't originally disclosed to the federal ethics commissioner but magically reappeared during the controversy.  Funny, that.

Even worse, Trudeau became the first Canadian prime minister to violate this country's Conflict of Interest Act.

This was primarily related to last year's vacation with his family and prominent Liberals to the Aga Khan's private island, unknowingly paid for by Canadian taxpayers.  The PM initially claimed he didn't mention this trip because of his long-standing friendship with the spiritual leader.  Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson, however, stingingly noted in the report she "determined that Mr. Trudeau and the Aga Khan cannot be characterized as friends within the meaning of the Act."

Dawson also chastised Trudeau for not recusing himself during private meetings last May related to a $15-million grant for the Aga Khan's Global Centre for Pluralism.  Friend or no friend, the PM's decision to attend these discussions was an obvious conflict of interest.

That's why a Dec. 15 Angus Reid Institute quarterly poll of 5,413 respondents showed, for the first time, the PM's approval rating below 50 per cent.

Trudeau's approval rating sits at 46 per cent, with 49 per cent of respondents displeased with his leadership.  While his overall popularity may be higher than Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, his overall disapproval rating is substantially larger than his main political rivals.

Meanwhile, 46 per cent of respondents believe it's "time for a change" in government, versus 32 per cent who are content with the Liberals in power.  That's a significant statistic when you consider Trudeau only assumed office on Nov. 4, 2015.

Is this poll the end of the world for Canada's 23rd prime minister?

Of course not.  The next federal election doesn't have to be held until October 2019.  And even if one was called tomorrow (for whatever reason), the Liberals would still be re-elected.

Here's the difference: It would likely be with a minority government at this point and, with the way the pendulum is swinging, it could be much smaller next year.

If you don't think the Tories and NDP taste blood, you're sorely mistaken.  They see a somewhat wounded prime minister and they're going to pounce on him with great gusto.

Will the opposition parties succeed?  Will Trudeau and the Liberals be able to recover?

We'll know better in 2018.  Happy New Year, everyone!

Troy Media columnist and political commentator Michael Taube is also a Washington Times contributor, Canadian Jewish News columnist, and radio and TV pundit.  He was also a speechwriter for former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


For those who are blissfully unaware, one of this country's least-noticed, but most consistently cringe-inducing holiday traditions is the year-end column of Don Martin, in which CTV's purported political know-it-all flaunts his flamboyant incompetence as a soothsayer of headlines-yet-to-come.  His December, 2016 column of predictions for 2017 was as howlingly wrong as every previous one, and included such notable non-events as:

  • Maxime Bernier wins the Tory leadership, followed by Kellie Leitch, Lisa Raitt, and Kevin O'Leary in second, third, and fourth place, respectively.  Notably absent from his tally?  Andrew Scheer, the actual winner.
  • Charlie Angus wins the NDP leadership on the "third ballot" beating Jagmeet Singh — who in the real world, won on the first.
  • Donald Trump visits Canada and Russia.  He visited neither.
  • Canada sends 600 troops to Mali.  Canada in fact explicitly rejected this idea, with the Trudeau government instead vaguely pledging 200 troops to what the Toronto Star called "any number of global hot spots over the next five years."

Martin did get a few things right.  He accurately foresaw that Stephane Dion — remember him? — would not survive 2017 as Canada's foreign minister.  Dion left the job in early January to become ambassador to Germany.

Martin also accurately foresaw that Democratic Institutions minister Maryam Monsef would be "laterally transferred to a less contentious portfolio" — though given what she went through in 2016, who didn't see that one coming?  Don's prediction this would trigger a "cabinet shuffle" chain reaction was way off, however.

Don was also correct in the relatively safe prediction that outgoing party leaders Rona Ambrose and Thomas Mulcair would retire from politics once their successors were elected.  Less so was his expectation that old Tory warhorses Ed Fast, Diane Finley and Rob Nicholson would follow suit.

I'd give him partial credit on his claim that the Prime Minister would get off scott-free from the ethics commissioner.  She did wind up dropping her investigation into Trudeau's alleged "cash for access" shenanigans back in April, and his government did introduce (though not yet pass) new fundraising reforms, but ongoing fallout from the whole Aga Khan thing, in which the PM was found to be in much more than a mere "perceived" conflict of interest, proved 2017 was, at best, a mixed bag for Trudeau on the ethics front.

This time last year, I theorized that the best way to accurately predict the future would be to make guesses in the most extreme opposite direction of whatever Mr. Martin saw coming.  In fairness to Don, this proved a bit of an overreaction.  While predicting the inverse of his predictions was an effective way to call a few events, such as that President Trump wouldn't visit Canada and Maxime Bernier wouldn't become Tory leader, in other situations my rank contrarianism caused me to run too far in the other direction.  Situations Don didn't see as being at all likely, such as Kevin O'Leary winning the Conservative leadership, or Thomas Mulcair cancelling his retirement plans, didn't wind up happening either, indicating that perhaps good fortune telling requires a more moderate approach.

Lesson learned, I give you my predictions for Canadian politics in 2018, informed by assuming things Don Martin predicts will happen this year won't, but neither will some particularly dramatic alternative.  Chances are, 2018 will be a fairly monotonous year of predictable events unfolding predictably.  Conventional wisdom and caution rules the day.

  • 2018 will be a year of stagnant trade talks.  NAFTA negotiations will not progress, and neither will talks with Asia.  Business leaders will get frustrated at how little is happening.
  • Bill Morneau will eventually resign as finance minister, but it will be handled in an inconspicuous way so it won't seem like a reaction to any particular headline.
  • Jagmeet Singh will continue to refuse calls to run for a seat in the House of Commons.  He will grow ever more ignored by the press, who begin pushing a narrative that his weak leadership is making the NDP increasingly irrelevant.
  • Pot legalization will fail to meet its summer of 2018 implementation deadline, as the rollout plan continues to be mired in logistical concerns and provincial worries.
  • The BC-to-Alberta Trans Mountain pipeline twinning project gets no closer to completion.  Lawsuits, environmental activism, and Liberal anxiety keep it in frustrating limbo, while industry-types gripe about how difficult it is to move forward with a natural resource project in Canada these days.
  • PC leader Patrick Brown is elected premier of Ontario with a majority government.  Liberal premier Phillippe Couillard is easily re-elected in next-door Quebec.
  • Many of the promises of his last throne speech still unfulfilled, Justin Trudeau elects not to prorogue parliament early, and instead plans to keep the current House sitting until the 2019 election.

Boring?  Perhaps.  It would be endlessly more entertaining if, say, a troubled third-place party staged a surprise upset to sieze control of our second biggest province (something Don expects), but experience suggests these things don't tend to happen here.

I'm trying to think of the most interesting or shocking thing that happened in Canadian politics in 2017.  Kevin O'Leary dropping out of the Conservative leadership contest, maybe?  The coalition government drama in British Columbia?  It's all pretty weak tea.

As much as those of us who make a living talking about this sort of stuff may wish otherwise, no one ever lost money betting against the fundamental dullness of Canadian politics.

Photo Credit: CTV News

Written by J.J. McCullough

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


A couple of weeks ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked whether he still had his "admiration" for China, and Trudeau said that over the past couple of years with looking at different systems around the world as part of his government's aborted exercise in electoral reform, that he had come back to the Mother of All Parliaments, Westminster.

On the one hand, that's great news that maybe he's given up on the foolhardy crusade of electoral reform, and that he recognizes that our present system has more to recommend it than not, and that hopefully we can move forward with trying to meaningfully engage with the system as it exists rather than trying to bring in a bunch of reforms for the sake of reforms.  But then again, perhaps not.  Trudeau's response as to why he was so enamoured with the present system in Westminster shows that he's still keen on reforms:

Obviously, the U.K. does a significantly better job than us in programming legislation and getting that through the House.  I think there is issue to admire on that.  On the other hand, we were glad to adopt the prime minister's question period model from the U.K. I think there's lots to draw on when you look at our democratic structures from the mother of all parliaments.

You may recall that Trudeau and his House Leader, Bardish Chagger, got into some hot water early in the year when they introduced that "discussion paper" on proposed changes to help "modernize" our own Parliament.  Embedded in that proposal was a proposal around programming motions, which they touted as a way to give greater predictability to House proceedings, and more certainty to committees to plan and undertake studies.  Eventually, the weeks of filibusters forced the government to back down on the issue, but as you can see, Trudeau remains enamoured with the concept, which makes me wonder if this isn't something he's going to try and bring in again (though potentially in a slightly less ham-handed manner than he tried the last time).

As with so many things, we can't just graft on UK procedures into our own Parliament, despite their common roots, because the nuances don't add up.  Case in point is the attempt by Trudeau to create our own version of Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesdays.  While the government went ahead and made this policy despite withdrawing their discussion paper that included it with the somewhat sulky reminder that these changes won't be put into the Standing Orders so that future governments won't be bound to them, as though it were actually possible to bind future governments (which they can't) it didn't really go as planned.

When you watch PMQs in the UK House of Commons, it's a lively exchange with spontaneity and wit but more than that, there isn't the same kind of reliance on canned answers and pabulum talking points that we see here.  Why?  Because questions are submitted in advance, so that the team in Whitehall can come up with sufficient answers to brief the PM with before her once-a-week appearance.  That doesn't happen in Canada at all in fact, there would likely be another revolt and weeks more of filibusters if Trudeau dared to suggest that in order to give more complete answers for Wednesday QP, that he would prefer questions be submitted beforehand.

After all, the suggestion that he wanted PMQs in the Standing Orders was seen as a way of giving himself the ability to only show up one day a week.  And while that may have been a bit overblown, it didn't really improve the quality of the exercise.  Trudeau does, on the whole, still show up three days a week when he's not doing international travel, meaning that with these new Wednesday PMQs, he's now answering far more questions than his predecessors did in the course of a week.  The problem is that the vast majority of these answers are vague platitudes, because that's as much as he can be briefed on when it comes to some of the topics that backbenchers will throw at him.  Add to that, the opposition has made it a regular tactic to bombard him with questions that they know he can't or won't answer (sometimes for legitimate reasons, like being asked by the Ethics Commissioner not to discuss any conversations they had), and we instead get a PMQ that is dull and repetitive.  It didn't translate in the slightest.

And that's one reason why programming can't work here at least, not until we have a wholesale reformation of our debate culture in the House of Commons.  Programming works in the UK to a large extent because they have a single afternoon of Second Reading debate and move the bill onto committee (which are far more independent than they are in Canada), and they have stricter timelines because of yearly prorogations and need to clear the Order Paper before that rolls around.  Their debate rules keep interventions short, and comprised of actual debate instead of reading twenty-minute speeches at one another for days on end, especially with our insistence on interminable Second Reading debate, which continues to baffle anyone who understands how debate is supposed to function.

The other, more salient problem with this fascination with programming is that it fundamentally treats the House of Commons like a legislative sausage-maker rather than a body that is designed to hold the government to account.  Trudeau and Chagger may be frustrated that the process to pass bills is slow particularly in this parliament but it's not Parliament's job to simply churn out legislation, and I fear that there is this expectation that is what's being articulated in Trudeau's admiration of programming motions.  And with so many attempts to "modernize" rules in the Canadian parliament, they're not solutions to problems, but layering more problems onto existing ones, which just make things worse in the long run.  We need to get back to debate basics, but that's not what Trudeau or Chagger are looking to offer.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


So Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act, the first prime minister ever found to have violated federal conflict of interest rules.  Does it matter?  Will it stick?  It does.  And it should.  But it won't.  So it doesn't.  Yet.

Yes, by agreeing to stay on the Aga Khan's very posh and private island last winter, Justin Trudeau showed a clear lack of judgement.  He jeopardized his brand as the middle class defender.

It took almost a year for Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson to conduct her investigation and come to a decision on the matter.  In the end, Dawson concluded that Mr. Trudeau had broken the law in many, many ways.

Trudeau defended his trip to the Aga Khan's Island, saying that the law allows for a gift from a friend.  Dawson dismissed that argument.  The Aga Khan was close to Trudeau's father but he and the son had no personal contact for 30 years, except at the father's funeral.  Their relationship only resumed after Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party and it intensified after his election as head of the government.  Did Justin Trudeau think that was pure coincidence?  How many other friends ignored him for 30 years only to reconnect once he became powerful and, therefore, potentially useful?

Sadly for the opposition parties, the news broke after the House had risen for the Holidays.  Dawson's report was released so late in 2017, in fact, that Prime Minister Trudeau's year-end interviews were already in the can.  Meaning that nobody, journalists or opposition MPs alike, could grill the Prime Minister on the findings the way they should have.

That is a good thing for Trudeau.  In fairness to the Prime Minister, he did decide to appear in front of a media mob to answer questions on the very day he was found guilty by the Ethics Commissioner.  Trudeau's feeble defense was tested, and he was knocked out by the CBC's Rosemary Barton.  If you haven't seen the video, take a look: ding, ding, ding: down for the count.

It's as if Trudeau suddenly realized how terrible his four prepared lines, repeated ad nauseam since the story first broke last year, sounded.  Perhaps he felt ashamed.  Though I doubt it.

Yet Trudeau will not be punished, the law does not provide for it.  The polls won't budge over the Holidays and people have not really paid attention to the issue.  Talk about getting off easy!  Still, Trudeau's ethical judgment (and that of his entourage and his cabinet have not met the smell test).  This particular event, though, having played out for so long, did little immediate damage to the Liberal brand.

It is understood that a Prime Minister cannot avoid close contact with the rich and powerful of this world.  But Mr. Trudeau relishes it.  He clearly enjoys going to Davos to meet with the business elites, to hang out with rock stars, to be famous for being famous.  But somehow, Trudeau and his team were very secretive about his vacation with the Aga Khan.  If not for the persistence of David Akin to find out where he was vacationing, Canadians might not have known.  Same goes with the cash-for-access financing cocktails with wealthy Chinese investors.  Or the Finance Minister's undisclosed European villas.  If the PMO was only interested in protecting the government's image as a servant of the middle class, the secrecy would be generalized and these contacts minimalised.  But when it comes to Trudeau's adventures with the rich and famous, the Liberals are picking and choosing what to tell Canadians.  And so far, the reasons not to tell Canadians were always related to ethical problems and potential conflict of interests.

This systematic failure of Justin Trudeau and his team to anticipate these conflict situations (potential, real or apparent) is not hurting the Liberals as much as it should have.  It certainly has not hurt them too much in the polls they even stole two ridings from the Conservatives in recent by-elections.  But these scandals are creating a sentiment about the Liberals, reinforced by years of governing arrogance and systemic entitlements.  The perception is setting.  A narrative can be built.  A case can be made.  It is now up to Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh to do it.

Photo Credit: National Post

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Gather 'round, friends, for I bear good tidings.  Last year at around this time, I made a bunch of predictions for what was coming in the year ahead.  And boy, was I right.

Okay, okay.  Maybe only some of it.  But who could have foreseen everything that happened this year in advance?

In the spirit of the season — to really take a hard look at myself, and how great I am, I mean — it seems like it's a good thing to go back and see what I thought last year, and then we can laugh at how things really turned out.

So let's do it.

You can find my predictions column right here, if you want to get all the way up to speed.  Otherwise, I'll just paraphrase my predictions.

First let's do the things I got right, so I can feel good about myself, then we'll look at the things I kinda-sorta got correct.  Then, we'll see what I completely nerfed on, and question whether I'm really qualified to sit atop the throne of Nostradamus.

The Good:

  • We did not get jetpacks this year, nor flying cars.  Nailed it!
  • I predicted electoral reform would be killed, the government would pay little price.  I think that's mostly right.  If they've paid any price for dropping this plan, it's that it's one of many broken promises.  I did also say Maryam Monsef, who led the file, would be shuffled out of cabinet, which I was half-right about.  She was shuffled into another department.  As the one doing the judging around here, I'm going to declare this a total victory.
  • If you're able to read this, it means I was right and there was no nuclear holocaust and we're not living in a radioactive wasteland.  Congrats, everyone!  There are still a couple weeks left in the year, but I'm confident we're going to make it this last bit without being atomized in a massive nuclear exchange.  The second half of this prediction was only applicable if I was wrong on the first half.
  • I figured there'd be some health story this year that would be reported everywhere but probably be wrong.  It hasn't been disproven yet, but here's a recent one on how drinking between three and seven cups of coffee will cut your chance of dying.  Well, cut your chance from dying from certain illnesses, it's not going to make you immortal.  Which almost exactly fits the mold of health stories that's reversed every few months.  And do you remember the miracle Zamboni treatment for MS?  Turns out that was total bullshit.  Starting to think health news isn't trustworthy.
  • Elizabeth May would stay on as leader of the Green Party, I said, for she is the party and the party is her.  She is eternal, and I was right.

The Iffy:

  • So, I said the 6/49 numbers for the third drawing of February would be 04-11-15-21-27-33.  The actual numbers were: 03-04-08-12-13-46, with the bonus number 26.  So, I guessed one number correctly, which means I wasn't completely wrong.  I'll say I'm very glad I wasn't right, though. I didn't play these numbers for the drawing, and I would have lost my mind if I'd been correct but not won the money.  Bullet: dodged.
  • Kevin O'Leary wouldn't be the leader of the Conservative Party, I thought, which was correct.  But I also said we'd miss him, which was wrong.  Turns out his absence has been wonderful.  Oh well, can't win them all!

The Yikes:

  • I said Kellie Leitch was going to win the Conservative leadership, and only bomb once she was in the big chair.  That was hilariously off-base.  She lost quite badly, and has since essentially disappeared from the political scene.  While I was completely wrong, I can't say I'm sorry about the outcome.  Silver linings!
  • Last year, I said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would get away with hosting private fundraisers with wealthy donors, and not pay a price.  I think I really whiffed this one.  The party instituted rules to curb these things.  While we can debate the strength and effectiveness of those rules, I think he paid a price.  It also set the party up to be vulnerable to all sorts of other scandals, big and small, this year.  This Liberal government has paid a real price for the appearance of how close they are to the wealthy and well-connected.  Which is good, I think.  But I was a touch too cynical to see that coming.
  • I also said Tom Mulcair would stay leader of the NDP.  That's an oopsie.  A big, big oopsie.  But I was right that Charlie Angus wouldn't be leader!  Still, way wrong.

Anyhow, that's it.  All things considered, not too shabby on the trivial stuff.  On the serious substantive side?  Well, not great.  There's always next year, though.  So, keep an eye on this space in the new year, where I'll try once again to guess lottery numbers months in advance, and if I'm lucky, make a joke or two that lands.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.