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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the final presidential primaries and caucuses of 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — After 146 days, 90 primaries and 17 caucuses in five U.S. territories, the District of Columbia and almost every state (Delaware canceled, remember?), the 2024 presidential primary calendar draws to a close with a handful of primaries on Tuesday and two Democratic caucuses on June 8.

Voters in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota and Washington, D.C., will head to the polls Tuesday for both presidential and state primaries, while the very last votes of the presidential primary season will be cast four days later in Democratic contests in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Iowa will hold primaries on Tuesday for just state and local offices, having held its presidential contests in January and in March.

President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican, have scored lopsided victories in every contest since securing their parties’ nominations on March 12, but both presumptive nominees have also faced persistent protest votes in several contests along the way.

Biden will again face organized campaigns in multiple states to vote for “uncommitted” in protest of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. In New Jersey, “uncommitted” will appear on the ballot in most counties above the phrase, “Justice For Palestine, Permanent Ceasefire Now!”

For Trump, Tuesday marks the first primaries since he became the first former American president to be convicted of felony crimes as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex. It’s also the first time since his chief rival for the 2024 nomination, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, announced that she would vote for him in November. Haley received a sizable share of the vote in some recent contests despite having ended her campaign in March. Her final appearance on a primary ballot will be in New Mexico.

Tuesday’s other key races include the Republican primary to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in Montana in what may be the most competitive contest to decide control of the chamber, as well as primaries to replace scandal-plagued Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez in New Jersey, who faces a bribery trial.

Here are the upcoming contests at a glance:

DELEGATES AT STAKE (TUESDAY)

DEMOCRATS: 216.

REPUBLICANS: 12 (82 delegates in Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota are unbound per party rules).

DELEGATES AT STAKE (JUNE 8)

DEMOCRATS: 14.

TUESDAY’S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES (5)

DEMOCRATS (5): D.C., Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota.

REPUBLICANS (4): Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota.

TUESDAY’S STATE & LOCAL PRIMARIES (6)

D.C., Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota.

TUESDAY’S PRIMARY TIMELINE

8 p.m. ET: All polls close in D.C. and New Jersey. Most polls close in South Dakota.

9 p.m. ET: All polls close in Iowa and New Mexico. Last polls close in South Dakota.

10 p.m. ET: All polls close in Montana.

GUAM AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TIMELINE (JUNE 8)

8 p.m. ET (June 7): Caucus starts in Guam.

12 a.m. ET (June 8): Caucus ends in Guam.

5 a.m. ET (June 8): Guam results expected.

9 a.m. ET (June 8): Caucuses begin in Virgin Islands.

6 p.m. ET (June 8): Caucuses end in Virgin Islands.

8 p.m. ET (June 8): Virgin Islands results expected.

WASHINGTON, D.C.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Marianne Williamson, Armando Perez-Serrato and Write-in. Twenty delegates at stake.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): None. Republicans held a party-run contest in March.

STATE PRIMARY: Contested primaries for U.S. delegate to Congress, City Council, shadow senator and shadow representative.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters registered with a party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independents or unaffiliated voters may not participate in any party’s primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 8:30 p.m. ET.

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 11:59 p.m. ET with about 69% of total votes counted.

IOWA

STATE PRIMARY: Contested primaries for U.S. House, state Senate, state House. Key races in the 1st, 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts and state House District 34.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters registered with a party may participate in that party’s primary, but any voter may register or change their party affiliation on the day of the primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 9:12 p.m. ET.

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 2:29 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

MONTANA

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, No Preference, Write-in. 20 delegates at stake.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, No Preference, Write-in. Montana’s 31 unbound delegates are not tied to primary results.

STATE PRIMARY: Contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, attorney general, auditor, education superintendent, public service commission, state Senate, state House and non-partisan races for state Supreme Court, including chief justice.

WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter in Montana may participate in any party’s primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 10:06 p.m. ET.

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 6:02 a.m. ET with about 93% of total votes counted.

NEW JERSEY

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Terrisa Bukovinac, Uncommitted, Write-in. 126 delegates at stake.

(Uncommitted “Justice for Palestine, Permanent Ceasefire Now!”)

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Write-in. 12 delegates at stake.

STATE PRIMARY: Contested primaries for U.S. Senate and U.S. House. Key races for U.S. Senate and the 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts.

WHO CAN VOTE: Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 8:04 p.m. ET

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: About 2 a.m. ET with 90% of total votes counted.

NEW MEXICO

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Williamson, “Uncommitted Delegate.” 34 delegates at stake.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Haley, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, “Uncommitted Delegate.” New Mexico’s 22 unbound delegates are not tied to primary results.

STATE PRIMARY: Contested primaries for U.S. House, state Senate, state House.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters registered with a party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 9:11 p.m. ET.

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 2:50 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.

SOUTH DAKOTA

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Williamson, Dean Phillips, Perez-Serrato. 16 delegates at stake.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Will not appear on ballot because Trump is uncontested. South Dakota’s 29 unbound delegates are not tied to primary results.

STATE PRIMARY: Contest primaries for state Senate, state House. Key race in state Senate District 27.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only registered Republicans may vote in the Republican primary. Registered Democrats and independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in the Democratic primary.

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 9:02 p.m. ET.

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 3:26 a.m. ET with about 92% of total votes counted.

GUAM (June 8)

PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS (D): Voters participate in a presidential preference vote.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters affiliated with the Democratic Party may participate in the caucuses, but voters may register and affiliate on caucus day.

RESULTS: The AP will update its Delegate Tracker with Guam delegate results when the Democratic Party of Guam makes them available. The AP will not provide raw vote totals from the caucus vote.

VIRGIN ISLANDS (June 8)

PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS (D): Biden, Williamson, “Uncommitted,” Write-in.

WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters affiliated with the Democratic Party may participate in the caucuses, but voters may register and affiliate on caucus day.

RESULTS: The AP will update its Delegate Tracker with Virgin Islands delegate results when the U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic Party makes them available. The AP will not provide raw vote totals from the caucus vote.

UNCOMMITTED OR WRITE-IN ON THE PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

UNCOMMITTED: Montana (as “No preference”), New Jersey (Democrats only), New Mexico, Guam (June 8, Democrats only), Virgin Islands (June 8, Democrats only)

WRITE-IN: D.C. (Democrats only), Montana, New Jersey, Virgin Islands. In Montana, write-in candidates must file with the state before the election.

ARE WE THERE YET?

As of Tuesday, there will be 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the November general election.

As of June 8, there will be 72 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 150 days until the November general election.

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AP writers Leah Askarinam and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

Robert Yoon, The Associated Press


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