On Monday, a political feat that has never been pulled off in Canada might come to pass.
The separatist Parti Québécois could very well win a majority government in Quebec with barely 30 per cent of the vote — or possibly even less.
“If they get 30 per cent of the votes, even with a minority government, that would be unprecedented. But with a majority, that would be absolutely stunning — super unprecedented,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University.
Béland doesn’t know of any instance across Canada where a party won a majority with such a low share of the vote.
“Certainly, in Quebec it would be a first,” he said.
If the PQ forms a majority, Béland suspects “this will probably re-start or amplify the debate on electoral reform.”
Three polls taken last weekend showed the PQ with 30 per cent support and the Liberals between 22 and 26 per cent. Poll aggregator sites suggested the PQ was within grasp of forming a majority government.
The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, which was near the top of the polls at the start of the campaign, has fallen to fourth place behind the PQ, the Liberals and the Conservative Party of Quebec, which was polling at 16 to 19 per cent support, the most recent polls show. Québec Solidaire is trailing with about 11 per cent of the vote.
This is the first Quebec election with five “significant parties” in the running, said André Lecours, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa. He said the “extreme fragmentation” of the vote makes it possible for a party to claim victory with just 30 per cent support.
“I can say with great confidence that this type of result would be impossible in a situation of two or three parties,” Lecours said.
It could be either a minority or a majority for the PQ, but it definitely looks like a PQ victory, agreed Sébastien Dallaire, chief insights officer with pollster Leger Marketing. “Another result would be very surprising at this stage.
“It’s very, very hard to see where things are going to land in terms of seat count because of the very deep divisions among voters and the regional disparities, the linguistic disparities,” said Dallaire.
“It’s a very weird mix when you look at voting intentions in the province.”
The PQ’s “extensive lead among Francophone voters does give them, potentially, the possibility of winning a majority, even at or just below 30 per cent of the vote.”
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has been asking voters to give his party a majority government so it can fulfill its promises. When the writ dropped, it held seven of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
“It’s a double-edged sword,” Dallaire said. “The party hasn’t been able to gain additional support, possibly because the majority of Quebecers don’t really want a referendum” on separation.
If the PQ does win a majority on Monday, “the question of is it a mandate to push for a referendum will certainly be a key debate in months to come,” Dallaire said.
The “linguistic composition of the vote” in Quebec is what puts a majority within reach for the PQ, even with such a low percentage of the vote, he said.
“The Liberal Party grabs a majority, often a vast majority of the non-Francophone vote,” Dallaire said. “That non-Francophone vote is highly concentrated in about 20-25 ridings in and around Montreal. Outside of this, the majority of ridings are almost unilingual Francophone.”
Among Francophone voters, “the PQ has a significant double-digit lead,” he said.
“The 29 (per cent of the vote) for the PQ is highly concentrated in Francophone ridings, whereas the Liberals are not competitive in those same ridings. They’re very far behind,” Dallaire said.
“So, in fact, the Conservatives are the real contender in any of those Francophone ridings.”
Quebec Conservatives, who haven’t had a seat in nearly a century, are on track to elect about 15 MNAs in the Quebec City area.
“Fifteen is definitely possible,” Dallaire said. “They could even maybe look at more than this.”
That could cost the PQ their majority, he said.
“The Conservatives have become the real threat outside of Montreal,” Dallaire said.
He also suspects the Liberals could regain some former traditional Grit strongholds in western Quebec, as well as the Eastern Townships.
“It’s this combination that make a PQ majority not a certainty at all,” Dallaire said.
“It could still be a minority, and if it’s a minority, it’s because the Conservatives are a bit stronger than expected and the Liberals are also performing a bit better than expected.”
There’s another potential historical first looming in this election, which will likely see “the largest swing in terms of seats in Quebec politics,” he said.
“A government that had a super majority could be entirely wiped out in the span of one term. That never happened before,” Dallaire said. “The CAQ could go from having won 90 seats the last time around to now fighting for their survival. And that is a spectacular turnaround.”
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