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Canada

Adam Katz: Manitoba’s Conservatives are collapsing, ensuring Wab Kinew’s dominance

The Manitoba Legislative Building.

WINNIPEG — Manitoba’s opposition Proressive Conservatives found themselves suddenly leaderless on Monday after leader Obby Khan quit his post and left caucus. This followed months of internal strife with several high-profile staff and MLAs either quitting or saying they wouldn’t run again. But Khan’s resignation is less a standalone leadership crisis than the latest sign of a party that has struggled to rebuild since losing government in 2023. With only a year before the next provincial election, the Conservatives will be hard-pressed to mount a convincing challenge to NDP Premier Wab Kinew unless they can resolve those organizational and political problems quickly.

Khan served as leader for only 17-months and his resignation came only days after he survived a caucus confidence vote. Despite receiving that support , Khan said the divisions and feuding within the party had taken an intolerable toll, and that efforts by some in the party to undermine his leadership had contributed to his decision to step down. According to Khan , some caucus members were apparently planning to hold a “secret meeting” the night before the resignation at the home of MLA Konrad Narth, who has since been named interim leader. The PCs subsequently criticized Khan for airing private caucus discussions publicly, while Khan accused Narth of hypocrisy for invoking confidentiality after allegedly organizing a meeting to discuss removing him without the full caucus.

Khan’s resignation leaves the PCs with 19 MLAs in the legislature and begins another leadership transition less than two years after Khan was elected to replace former leader Heather Stefanson, who also had a short tenure as.

Khan’s leaving was preceded by the departure of PC campaign director Stephen Carter on Sept. 25, after roughly nine months in the role. Carter, who was hired to develop the party’s strategy for the next election, said he left because he had lost confidence in Khan’s leadership, describing a breakdown between Khan and the MLAs, as well as between Khan and party organization and staff. “There was not the division in caucus. There was a division between the leader and the party, and the leader and the caucus, and the leader and the staff,” Carter told media on Tuesday.

The PCs must now replace both their leader and campaign director with the October 2027 election approaching.

The current divisions within the party stem back to Khan’s closely fought leadership race. He narrowly defeated Wally Daudrich, a businessman and longtime PC board member, under the party’s weighted voting system. Khan entered office promising to bring the party together after the leadership race, but disagreements within the party continued during his tenure.

One of the most visible disputes involved Daudrich himself. After narrowly losing the leadership to Khan, despite receiving more individual votes, Daudrich remained active within the party and later sought the PC nomination in the southwest riding of Turtle Mountain, where the incumbent MLA would not seek re-election. In June, the PCs barred him from seeking the nomination citing disparaging comments about PC MLAs, misuse of third-party contact lists, and refusal to withdraw threatened litigation against party officials, including Khan.

Daudrich subsequently became an outspoken critic of the party and its leadership. He disputed the party’s explanation for rejected his candidacy and argued that the PCs had moved away from the conservative values he had campaigned on. He subsequently left the party.

Khan’s tenure also saw changes within the PC caucus. In March, MLA Bob Lagassé left to sit as an Independent, citing disagreements with Khan and the party’s decision to keep another MLA in its ranks after an ethics violation. Khan also faced criticism after agreeing to help speed passage of the NDP government’s free-trade legislation, despite criticizing the bill’s provisions. He apologized for a gesture made in the legislature, where he pretended to shoot himself in the mouth. Earlier in his leadership, Khan apologized for the PCs’ 2023 campaign advertisements defending the party’s decision not to search the Prairie Green Landfill for the remains of two First Nations women.

Taken individually, these controversies are different in nature. Together, however, they contributed to a leadership defined as much by internal disputes and responses to controversy as by an effort to establish a clear alternative to the NDP.

Several experienced PC MLAs are also preparing to leave provincial politics. Kelvin Goertzen, who has represented Steinbach since 2003 and served in several cabinet positions and briefly as premier, has announced that he will not seek re-election. Ron Schuler , another longtime MLA and former cabinet minister, is also leaving politics, both in addition to Turtle Mountain MLA Doyle Piwniuk, whose seat Daudrich was hoping to win. Their departures mean that the new leader will inherit a caucus with fewer MLAs with experience governing.

The party is also facing an electoral environment in which Premier Wab Kinew has maintained exceptionally high levels of public approval in Manitoba. A recent Free Press-Abacus Data poll found that 68 per cent of Manitobans approved of Kinew’s performance, compared with 31 per cent for Khan, a 37-point gap. Kinew’s standing also extends beyond Manitoba: a September analysis of premier approval ratings placed him first among Canada’s provincial premiers, with 63 per cent approval, while no other premier reached 50 per cent.

Kinew’s popularity will be one of the most significant obstacles facing whoever succeeds Khan. The leadership change therefore comes at a time when the PCs cannot assume that replacing Khan will, on its own, resolve their political difficulties. Whoever succeeds him will need to turn simply opposing the NDP into a coherent alternative, while assuming control of a party in transition.

Any incoming leader will have limited time to establish a public profile, develop a policy platform and rebuild the party’s campaign organization before Manitobans return to the polls. The PCs are also still facing financial difficulties that emerged from their 2023 defeat. It will be a tall order, no matter who takes over.

National Post

Adam Katz is a freelance writer and a political science and history student at the University of Manitoba.