Monday’s decision to
postpone the next stage of reopening
— and lifting some COVID-19 restrictions — was a tricky one for the UCP. It seems to violate the government’s own guideline.
When COVID hospitalizations drop below 300, the guideline says, Alberta can ease restrictions on movie theatres, auditoriums, art galleries, places of worship and more.
Actually, hospitalizations are now below 300. The count was 280 on Monday.
But there’s another, lesser-known part of this guideline to consider. Before moving to the next step, hospitalizations must also be declining.
That’s been in the reopening rules since they were first introduced.
Specifically, the guideline says: “Once hospitalizations are in the range of the benchmark and declining, decisions to move to the next step will be considered.”
“Range” and “declining” are the key words. The government gave itself room to apply the guideline sensibly.
Hospitalizations have steadily increased since the COVID-19 variants started to hit. They climbed for seven days straight.
Then came a slight drop of two hospitalizations on Monday. But AHS still expects the total to top 300 within the next week.
And so, the cabinet committee that rules on these things decided not to further reopen, with no target date for when restrictions would further be eased.
This was surely a painful decision. Many UCP MLAs are eager to get rid of restrictions as soon as possible. The ruling will also devastate some business owners who were counting on the move to the next phase of reopening.
But delaying this phase was definitely the only rational call.
Referring to the likelihood that hospitalizations will climb, Health Minister Tyler Shandro said, “It would be irresponsible and unfair to Albertans to ease measures only to reinstate them.”
More openings at this point would invite a further surge of the COVID-19 variants. That would be a foolish gamble just as vaccines are starting to take hold.
Premier Jason Kenney made that point in the legislature Monday — hang on just a bit longer, put up with restrictions for a while yet, and we may truly have this monster under control.
It has become a weird existential race — the vaccine versus the virus, both struggling in their insensate ways to control the future.
But there are clear signs that the vaccination can prevail.
Infections in congregate care settings are way down. Fewer people are dying.
Although five deaths were recorded on Monday, on one recent day there wasn’t a single death.
As infections and deaths decline among older vaccinated people, the proportion of afflicted younger people swells. Almost 90 per cent of those currently in intensive care units are younger than 65.
But the vaccine is already becoming available to the younger age groups. Chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said: “In a few months, with widespread vaccination, we will be in a very different place.”
She also warned, “If the variant gets out of control, the vaccine can’t catch up.”
Her description of how the highly infectious variant behaves is alarming. Once it latches onto a person, it can just launch into one victim after another.
And the prime source of spread is people who, fatigued by it all, are simply a bit less careful than they were.
As usual, Shandro spent a good deal of time railing at Ottawa for failing to provide enough vaccine.
In the legislature, the NDP flailed away at UCP efforts, even though the government had already decided not to extend reopening, which is exactly what the Opposition wanted.
And of course, Kenney and Shandro snapped back.
There is no longer any political consensus on COVID-19. The whole we’re-in-it-together thing has collapsed.
The truth is that for several months now, we’ve been in it apart. That’s demoralizing and divisive. Increasingly, people hate it.
Keep your eye on the enemy, political people. It’s the virus, not the humans opposite.
Don Braid's column appears regularly in the Herald
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