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O'Toole listens to a question during a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Feb. 4, 2021 (CP/Adrian Wyld)

“Show, don’t tell” is a familiar exhortation to anyone who’s attended journalism school or spent time in a newsroom. The idea is that it’s dull and unconvincing to declare to a reader that a certain person is witty or a house shabby; instead, you quote a clever bon mot that person dropped in conversation or describe the sagging porch and rheumy windows of the building you see in front of you. If you’re specific enough, you don’t have to announce the thing you’re trying to arrive at.

On Friday evening, Erin O’Toole delivered a well-crafted and by turns compelling speech to his party’s virtual policy convention. It was a high-stakes opportunity to present his vision to his own party and to the country at large, given that a federal election seems a near-certainty as the minority parliament approaches its second birthday in the fall. The Conservatives have been persistently lagging in the polls behind the governing Liberals, and if the smattering of unflattering stories about O’Toole that broke just as the convention opened is any indication, an internal sales pitch might be as crucial for O’Toole as one aimed at the Canadian electorate at large.

The theme that opened and then wound throughout his remarks was that the Conservative Party of Canada must show the same courage that everyone else has in living through this year that absolutely no one wanted, and gird itself to change and learn if it wants to grow. “The Conservative Party must show that we too have the courage to meet this extraordinary moment, and change,” he said. “We have lost two elections in five-and-a-half years. In that time, we have had four leaders. We must present new ideas, not make the same arguments hoping that maybe this time more Canadians will come around to our position.”

It’s an astute point and a promising political launchpad. The only problem is that O’Toole undercut his own diagnosis by telling instead of showing.

The speech was distinctly short on specifics that would flesh out “Canada’s Recovery Plan” or the party’s efforts to grow. Restoring every pandemic-ravaged job within a year, beefing up conflict-of-interest and lobbying laws, crafting a mental health action plan, ensuring Canada can produce its own vaccines and personal protective equipment so it’s not relying on China in the next mass health crisis and balancing the federal budget within the decade were the bullet-points, but they were almost entirely that. One intriguing and possibly useful idea—a national three-digit suicide hotline—seemed almost oddly specific floating in a soup of generalities.

On climate change, O’Toole first chuckled at people who had speculated that he might have something dramatic to say, warning, “I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.” Then he drew two lines in the sand that had the effect of confusing anyone trying to figure out where he stands and what he wants to do.  First, he declared stoutly, “We cannot ignore the reality of climate change. The debate is over.” But then he said, “As important as climate change is, getting our economy back on track is more important,” adding, “Canadian voters should have no doubt” that his first priority is jobs and rebuilding the ravaged economy.

A party founded on farmers, hunters and anglers would have a “comprehensive” and “serious” plan for climate change, O’Toole said—but Friday evening contained no hints about what that might be.

Back in October, when he was a newer-still party leader, O’Toole delivered another big speech to the Canadian Club. That address was pure populism, condemning rising inequality, the worry and resentment it bred and the opportunistic elites and heartless corporate entities that have fattened themselves at the expense of the hard-working left-behinds.

"Justin Trudeau likes to say we are all in this together, but are we really? Under the Trudeau Liberals, the country is more divided than ever, divided between the winners and losers in the global economy,” he said at the time. "We can renew Canadian solidarity, but it will not be easy. Powerful forces continue to defend the status quo. Many of the rich, well-connected and well-educated have been largely insulated from the enormous economic upheavals of the last decade."

That speech was a pointed attempt to grow in a specific direction, toward what a Tory strategist described as the “low voter”: low income, low education, low diversity and low voter turnout. The strategy was to carve out a larger slice of the next federal vote by effectively enlarging the pie, drawing in and capturing what the party believed to be a new and unclaimed bloc of working-class voters.  During the 2019 federal election there were days on which you could have stripped the names from the transcripts and swapped many of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s talking points for those of erstwhile Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

But in front of his virtual convention audience on Friday night, O’Toole was making a different sort of appeal to broadening his party’s tent, one that is more in line with polling that shows woo-able voters are younger, more diverse and more supportive of immigration than the current base.

O’Toole listed off the core values of his party—self-determination, hard work, respect—that had built the country once and would now be crucial to rebuilding it from the pandemic ashes. “These ideals will ensure more Canadians see a Conservative when they look in the mirror, and feel good about voting for a party that will get this country moving again,” he said. “I want all Canadians to feel welcome in the Conservative Party of Canada.”

He touched on differences of skin colour, sexuality and faith, telling everyone, “You are welcome in this party—in fact, we need your help.”

O’Tool adroitly diagnosed some of the major problems facing him and his party at the moment, their potential solutions and what a weary, stressed and frightened country may be hungry to hear from an alternative to the governing party. So there’s the tell; it’s just a shame the rest of his remarks didn’t show how he would follow through on that.

The post Erin O’Toole’s all tell, no show speech appeared first on Macleans.ca.


Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley, left, and MLA Shannon Phillips at the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton on Monday March 8, 2021.

In early 2015, many conservatives would hoot derisively at the thought of Rachel Notley becoming premier.

Now, many of the same people can’t imagine her doing it twice.

But the NDP leader has defied the prediction that once defeated, her party would shrivel and die.

Today, the NDP is in a stronger position than it was in the months before the shocking 2015 victory.

A string of recent polls shows Notley’s party is ahead of Premier Jason Kenney’s UCP. This finding has been accelerating since the fall of 2020.

One recent poll by Leger

had the NDP ahead, garnering 40 per cent support to the UCP’s 20 per cent. Another, from the Angus Reid Institute, put the lead at 41 per cent to 38 per cent.

Now, there’s a survey by the University of Alberta and University of Saskatchewan, which shows the NDP at 39.1 per cent, compared to 29.8 per cent for the UCP.

Both parties are far short of majorities because a high number of voters are undecided. But the voters on the move aren’t Notley’s loyalists. They’re discontented UCP voters.

Notley isn’t getting ready to redecorate the premier’s office just yet. She knows everything could change again by the spring of the next provincial election year, 2023.

“Internally, we’ve been seeing poll results like this for four or five months now,” Notley says. “It’s just recently that this is showing up in the media.

“But we are 18 months to two years away from an election,” she notes. “The significance of these polls is less to me than it should be to Jason Kenney.

“They should show him that what he’s been doing is not acceptable to Albertans, and that they need him to change course.”

The recent uproar

over the war room’s attack on a Netflix animated movie is just a diversion to rally Kenney’s political base, she says.

“If we’re going to keep this stupid war room — which obviously we should not do — but if we are, then it has to be measured not against its role in helping Kenney regain political support; it needs to be measured against its role in attracting investment dollars.”

And she feels the assault on a kid’s cartoon is far more likely to repel investors than impress them.

 Bigfoot Family has caught the attention of Alberta's energy 'war room'.

More importantly, the UCP’s economic performance “is a real failure,” she says.

“This Bigfoot thing, ironically, is him trying to distract from the fact that they haven’t done anything on this,” says Notley. “Their whole model of getting out of things is going to result in this massive growth in inequality in this province, unless government understands it and steps in to guide a more equitable recovery.”

Notley refers to

predictions of a "K-shaped" economic recovery

— meaning people who have done fairly well during the COVID-19 recession will see their fortunes rise at a steep angle, while those who fared poorly will see an equally sharp decline.

This could be most acute in Alberta, and most severe among young people.

“Kenney’s been talking about (how) happy days are here again,” Notley says, referring to optimistic projections of Alberta’s overall economic growth in 2021.

“That’s all true, but most of the projections look deeper and say we will lag as a country in terms of job recovery. And that would be in the face of Alberta having lost the greatest number of jobs of any province in the country last year.

“When it comes to recovery, our GDP would grow, but jobs will not follow,” she says.

Related

If you look at other premiers who are polling well, “I think the significance of the polls is . . . that Kenney’s approach is not the right one and he has to start listening to Albertans,” says Notley. “They are looking for someone who is trying to figure out job creation, not just handing it off to somebody else, not just crossing his fingers and hoping that things change.”

Notley is talking about much more direct, targeted economic action than the UCP would ever contemplate — and betting that Albertans are ready for it.

There’s your great political battle of the next year and beyond. Notley isn’t losing it so far.

Don Braid's column appears regularly in the Herald

dbraid@postmedia.com

Twitter: @DonBraid


In the early days of Stephen Harper's government, the office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer was envisioned as being able to provide independent fiscal projections from those produced by the Department of Finance, in the days where the opposition accused the Chrétien and Martin governments of padding their budgetary projections to provide larger-than-envisioned surpluses at the end of the fiscal year.  Inspired by the American Congressional Budget Office, its role quickly grew to providing costing estimates at the request of MPs and senators, and its first office-holder became something of a media darling as he pushed for transparency from a government that refused to provide it.  But we are now on our third permanent PBO, and his mandate seems to be expanding again, this time into the annals of fiscal punditry, and we should be concerned.

Yves Giroux has apparently discovered a taste for the spotlight, and is now a frequent guest on political talk shows, offering his opinions on policy directions that stray far beyond the mandate of his office.  For someone who is supposed to provide neutral costing evaluation, he's instead offering value judgments of the government, which is not his job.  Section 79.01 of the Parliament of Canada Act, which created the position as an independent officer of Parliament in 2017, describes the office as "an independent and non-partisan Parliamentary Budget Officer to support Parliament by providing analysis, including analysis of macro-economic and fiscal policy, for the purposes of raising the quality of parliamentary debate and promoting greater budget transparency and accountability."  I'm not sure that what he's doing is staying within the boundaries of his enabling statute, especially as he's not even a "watchdog" like other officers.

This was precisely an outcome that I had been worried about when the Liberals strengthened his position in 2017, removing it from the umbrella of the Library of Parliament and spinning him off as an independent officer.  While this ostensibly was to give him greater independence his predecessors fought for a greater budget after the previous government kept attempting to cut it because they didn't like that their creation bit the hand that fed them it also removed any particular ability to have any oversight of this role (barring gross misconduct).  These independent officers of parliament have no actual accountability, and they are often egged on by the media, which is the only institution that could actually provide any kind of check on them if they so wished.  They don't, however, and most outlets are more than happy to invite the PBO to stray into political analysis, which he obliges.

There has also been no particular critical thinking of his reports, in spite of dubious costing methodology, or the fact that several of his reports have been gamed in how they were requested so as to prove largely useless not that you'd understand that from the headlines they generate.  A good example of this was his costing of the Joint Supply Ship procurement program, where the capabilities of these ships was left out of the requested costing.  One of the most important determinants of what could drive up these costs was exempt from the report, not that you'd know that from how they were reported on, and when this was mentioned, Giroux just shrugs and states that he did what was requested.  And those who should be thinking critically about these very reports treat them as authoritative without question, which is as much of a statement on the quality of said reporting than it is on the office that produces some of these reports.  (This is not unique to the PBO there were some deeply problematic reports from the former Auditor General as well that nobody called out).

Throughout the pandemic, Giroux's commentary has become most definitely problematic.  When Bill Morneau resigned and was replaced with Chrystia Freeland, Giroux was doing the media rounds to make the tortured analogy about changing pilots mid-flight as though that's not what already happens on long-haul flights which is also not really something he should be commenting on.  There have been countless interviews that contain the phrase "I'm not really supposed to comment on the politics, but…" and he goes and does just that, and because it makes for good soundbites, they keep bringing him back to do it again.

Last weekend on CTV's Question Period, he opined that the government's promised post-pandemic stimulus measures would be "too much and too late" because it's possible that the economy may have better recovered than anticipated back in November, based on a single month's worth of job numbers (which are notoriously unreliable).  It's hard to see how commenting on the wisdom of fiscal policies falls into the realm of analysis.  His complaints that said planned stimulus spending lacks details seems premature given that we still don't have a clear picture of the shape of the economy once the pandemic does end, as we reach herd immunity and the hospitals are no longer overloaded committing to that spending months ahead of that clear picture, particularly if different parts of the country are able to open up sooner than others.  It would also be pre-empting the kinds of programs that the government is looking to roll out with their budget, likely to come in the next few weeks, and Giroux should know this.

I will grant that Giroux has a legitimate beef in that the government has not been releasing updated spending figures as often as they were earlier on in the pandemic, but the constant stream of commentary should be worrying. His role is not to be a watchdog of spending, despite media headlines branding him as such that's the job of MPs, and the PBO is supposed to be a tool that can help them do that job. He is no longer such a resource he is becoming a political actor in his own right, which is not how the office was envisioned, was legislated, or was enacted. This is not "raising the quality of parliamentary debate" it's replacing it, which is a red flag for the health of our parliamentary democracy.

Photo Credit: CBC News

 

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Conservative Party of Canada's 2021 policy convention

The Conservative Party of Canada’s feed for the 2021 virtual policy convention.


Public health officials give COVID-19 update

Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo will give up an update on COVID-19. Dr. Marc Berthiaume, the director of the Bureau of Medical Science at Health Canada, will also be in attendance.


Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacist Anna Giroba gives a COVID-19 vaccine to Ivan Brown at the Evergreen Village location on Thursday, March 18, 2021.

Alberta reported a new daily high for variant cases on Thursday as a decision looms for the province’s health officials on whether to further loosen COVID-19 restrictions next week.

Still, chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw wouldn’t say whether Alberta has entered a third wave of the pandemic, instead asking Albertans to continue adhering to public health guidelines during this “critical time.”

The province reported 505 new COVID-19 cases Thursday from around 10,900 tests, including 91 new variant cases.

As of Thursday, there were 5,084 active cases of COVID-19 across the province, including 1,972 in Alberta Health Services’ Calgary zone. There were 599 active variant cases across Alberta, representing around 11.8 per cent of the province’s total active COVID-19 cases.

“I ask all of us not to waste the sacrifices that have been made in this past year by ignoring the public health measures in place that are very much needed,” Hinshaw said.

Alberta hospitals on Thursday were treating 264 patients for COVID-19 infection, of which 43 were in intensive-care units.

A total of 1,957 Albertans have died since March 2020 due to COVID-19 infection, including a man in his 60s from AHS’ South zone, who was the lone fatality reported Thursday.

The province’s top doctor issued a stark warning as she noted a significant jump in COVID-19 cases in Lethbridge and the surrounding area.

She said Lethbridge’s active case count had risen to 469 on Wednesday from just 196 active cases three weeks earlier.

“Simply put, cases are rising sharply and we must curb the current rate of infection,” she said.

“While there is no single cause of the spike, local health officials have let me know that many of these cases are linked to family gatherings and visitation between households.”

She said it’s essential that all residents, “not just in Lethbridge, but in all of Alberta, not participate in any indoor social gatherings and follow the public health orders in place.”

Earlier in the day, Premier Jason Kenney said Hinshaw would provide advice to the Alberta government over the next few days on whether the province should move to Step 3 of its reopening plan, which it will be eligible to do next week.

Cabinet members would meet Monday to analyze recent trends, but the premier said a decision hasn’t yet been made.

Step 3 would include the potential easing of restrictions for adult team sports, casinos, racing centres and bingo halls, youth sport and recreation activities, indoor social gatherings, movie theatres and auditoria, museums, art galleries, zoos and interpretive centres, along with places of worship.

There must be fewer than 300 hospitalizations related to COVID-19 across Alberta for the province to move to Step 3. Kenney said the province met that threshold around one month ago.

“It’s clear that things have plateaued,” he said. “We have stopped seeing the decline in new daily cases, total active cases and hospitalizations, but they have been stable.”

Hinshaw said her recommendations haven’t been finalized.

“As we’re looking at all of our options, it’s critical that we learn from other jurisdictions and that we watch what has happened in other parts of the world when variant cases have risen sharply,” she said.

“We need to factor that in as one of many considerations as decisions are made.”

In deciding whether to allow indoor gatherings, Hinshaw said there’s a need for balance that minimizes the risks associated with continued isolation as well as the health-related risks of large gatherings potentially taking place.

“It’s critical that, honestly, whatever the rules are, that people follow what’s in place,” she said.

Asked whether the rising variant case numbers indicate Alberta has entered a third wave of the pandemic, Hinshaw said, “the coming weeks will really tell us that story.”

She added that a third wave “depends on the actions of people in the population.”

“We certainly are seeing some concerning early trends,” Hinshaw said.

Meanwhile, Advanced Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides said in a statement Thursday that as COVID-19 vaccines continue to be administered, he anticipates a return to

in-person learning for post-secondary institutions

this fall.

“As per recent announcements by the minister of Health, we anticipate that we will offer every adult Albertan their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end of June,” Nicolaides stated.

“With that in mind, I encourage all post-secondary institutions, students and families to prepare for a full return to on-campus learning this September. As we plan to transition back to in-person learning, the safety of students, staff and faculty will be our top priority. We will be working closely with Alberta Health and our chief medical officer of health, Dr. Hinshaw, to ensure a safe return to campus in September 2021.”

Alberta doubling pharmacies offering COVID-19 vaccine

Starting Friday at 8 a.m., AHS will open bookings to all remaining Albertans with birth years eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine in Phase 2A of the province’s rollout, Hinshaw announced Thursday.

Participating pharmacies continue to book appointments for all Albertans born in 1956 or earlier.

Kenney said earlier in the day that Alberta plans to deliver COVID-19 vaccine doses to more than 500 community pharmacies by early April, doubling the number of locations across the province where residents can be immunized.

Speaking outside a Shoppers Drug Mart location in Edmonton, Kenney said 259 pharmacies in 107 communities are now offering the vaccine, marking a 154 per cent increase in participating pharmacies since the beginning of March.

More than 35,000 doses of vaccine have been administered at pharmacies provincewide. That’s out of the 418,663 doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered overall in Alberta as of Wednesday, which includes 92,378 Albertans who have been fully immunized with two shots.

“These pharmacies are rapidly increasing our ability to immunize people as quickly and as safely as possible,” Kenney said. “To every Albertan who has a pharmacy offering the COVID-19 vaccine nearby, please book an appointment just as soon as you can.”

He added Albertans can also book vaccine appointments online through AHS or by calling 811. Community physicians are expected to start administering doses next month.

Kenney said the speed of the province’s rollout depends on the number of doses delivered, which is the responsibility of the federal government.

“We, unfortunately, continue to be let down on that front,” he said, citing recent delays in the delivery of Moderna doses due to the malfunction of a cargo aircraft heading to Alberta.

Kenney said that as a result, Alberta’s Moderna shipment this week will be half of what had been expected.

“If we get the vaccine supplies we’ve been promised, we’ll eventually be able to expand the immunization program across the province to include over 1,300 pharmacies,” the premier said.

Alberta Pharmacists’ Association CEO Margaret Wing said the province’s pharmacists have the potential to vaccinate at least 250,000 Albertans on a weekly basis if supplies allow.

Alberta was the first province to deploy community pharmacies in its rollout plans, noted Shoppers Drug Mart president Jeff Leger.

“Looking nationally at rollout plans, we think Alberta has gotten it right,” he said.

“They have quickly lowered the age cohorts eligible to be vaccinated and they put their trust in community pharmacists to accelerate the pace of vaccinations.”

shudes@postmedia.com

Twitter:

@SammyHudes