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Forget pipelines.  Pipelines are so 2019.  The big 2020 unsolvable energy industry issue will be the Frontier oil sands mine in northern Alberta.

Vancouver-based Teck Mines is proposing a giant open pit mine predicted to employ 7,000 people during construction and 2,500 once it is up and operating.  At its peak, the mine would produce 260,000 barrels of oil per day.  Over its 40-year lifespan, the $20.6 billion Frontier project would disturb an area of 292 square kilometres, although not all the lease land would be affected at the same time during the phased-in mining development.

And now the project's future is an enormous steaming pit waiting to trap politicians on both sides of the resource development/climate change action divide.

Premier Jason Kenney has already served notice on the federal government that its decision on final approval of the mine, expected by the end of February, will signal how Ottawa is going to treat all resource development in Alberta.

"If this project does not proceed, it would be a clear indication that there is no way forward for this country's largest natural resource," the premier says.

Alberta's Environment Minister Jason Nixon took the approval further into national unity territory with a letter he sent to his federal counterpart about the mine, according to a Financial Post story.

"Many Albertans are looking for positive signals from the federal government that the national interest includes Alberta," the Post quoted from the letter, which stresses the economic impact of the mine.

Meanwhile environmental groups are calling Teck's approval a "litmus test" of whether the Liberals are serious about meeting their climate commitments.

Indigenous climate change activists turned up specifically protesting the Teck mine at the COP25 climate change summit in Madrid calling on Justin Trudeau to reject the project's application, so the Frontier mine is already in the international environmental lens.

The mine approval is currently sitting on federal Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson's desk.  But Wilkinson is signalling he doesn't want to carry the can on the decision.

He says he has already told Nixon that climate commitments could weigh on his decision.  And he suggests if it's too tough to make the call he will hand it over to the full federal cabinet for a vote.

Safe to say it's headed for a vote.

Teck says the mine will emit 4.1 megatons of carbon dioxide a year.  The government is promising to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.  But there's all those jobs, including many for indigenous communities in northern Alberta, which may explain why 14 indigenous groups are on side with the mine proceeding.

Oh yes, and there's taxes and royalties and all that other economic stuff.

Teck is talking the talk on reclamation and mitigation, promising the latest technology to cut its carbon emission intensity to half that of the average oil sands average and promising careful tailings management.

But it's still pretty difficult to see past the vision of a massive open pit mine scavenging fossil fuels out of the boreal forest.  For several years the industry has been pointing to the much smaller and less disruptive footprint of below ground steam assisted extraction as the kinder gentler oil sands operation.  This project rolls back time to the 1980s.

The thinking on carbon, non-renewable energy use, and general environmental issues is radically different than it was in that halcyon Syncrude and Suncor era.  And, in practical industry terms, the economic justification for this expensive mega project in an era of $60 per barrel WTI oil might be lacking by the time Teck is ready to put those massive shovels into the ground.

But politically the Frontier mine is very much alive, representing much more than a resource project.  It stands for the UCP Alberta government's commitment to support the energy sector in the face of mounting environmental opposition. 

It is also going to be Kenney's test of how far he can play the western alienation card.  By arguing a federal vote against Frontier is a vote against Alberta's economy, he is making one project do some pretty heavy political lifting.

Photo Credit: CBC News

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I received a text from a former Conservative operative around 1 PM on Wednesday.

"Charest would jump in the blue team leadership race", it read.

"He is apparently pretty well organised and financed," my source added.

Before I could make phone calls to check in with other sources, it was too late: Radio-Canada's Sebastien Bovet was reporting the news.  It snowballed from there.

Well organised, you say?

So it does appear that indeed, former Quebec Premier Jean Charest is strongly considering the possibility of running for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Until now, the name of Jean Charest was not really on Ottawa's politicos radar screen.

EKOS Research, who has been polling likely candidates, did not include Jean Charest on its list.  Another former Quebec premier, Philippe Couillard, is on it however, along with the usual suspects Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay and even Stephen Harper.

Charest might be responding to the sirens singing the possibilities of becoming Prime Minister, a dream he abandoned while he was leader of the Progressive Conservative Party to become leader of the Quebec Liberals and eventually, Premier of Quebec.  He previously had been a minister under Brian Mulroney.  Are Charest's roots in the Conservative Party of Canada sufficient?

And more importantly, did his passage in Quebec politics taint him?

Quebec's Permanent Anti-Corruption Unit (UPAC) has been investigating the financing of the Liberal Party of Quebec during the Charest years for years now.  Former Ministers and Liberal operatives have been charged.  The Charbonneau Commission didn't paint a rosy picture of Premier Charest's political machine.

Charest was also controversially awarded a salary top up by the Quebec Liberal Party, who allegedly also repaid part of the mortgage of Charest's Westmount home.  Considering that current Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is dealing with the aftermath of his own special financial arrangements coming to light, this could be another problem for Charest.

Still, Charest's arrival in the race would be a political game changer.  He would be an immediate front-runner and a major threat to Justin Trudeau, especially in Quebec.  His commitment to National Unity is unquestionable; as a former Environment Minister he would bring credible green credentials to the Tory brand; and Charest remains one of the most formidable debater and speaker in Canadian politics.

There are crazier idea than the return of Jean Charest to the federal scene.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.