Two more senators moved caucuses on Monday, and the game of musical chairs in the Senate continues and will continue for the weeks to come.  Conservative Senator Jean-Guy Dagenais left the Conservative caucus in a bit of a huff, citing Andrew Scheer's social conservatism as a killer for the party in Quebec and that the unwillingness to face that fact was in part why he could no longer sit as a senator with the party's caucus though he would retain his party membership.  The other move was Liberal-turned-Progressive Senator Percy Downe, a mere day after the Senate Liberals rebranded themselves as the Progressive Senate Group.  Both headed to the new Canadian Senate Group, and Downe's departure means that Progressives no longer have enough members for official status under the Senate rules.

There are a number of things to unpack here, but let's start with Dagenais, and the timing of his departure.  It was remarked to me that unlike the two Conservatives who left to join the CSG when it was first formed, Senators Scott Tanas and Verne White, that they were keen to make the move before the Conservative senators held their caucus leadership vote, so that it would be clear that there was no hint of sour grapes there (though one could note that Senator Don Plett's election as leader was both inevitable, and an honest reflection of his being de facto leader already).  With Dagenais, who served as deputy whip under the previous leader, it has been suggested by those in the know that he had been hoping to be named whip by the new leader, and when that didn't happen, he made his exit and put the blame on Scheer.  It's entirely possible that both motivations are true, but the timing does suggest the plausibility that the whip's job was a factor.

As for Downe's decision to cross the floor, he never put out a release, nor did he return my calls, but he did tell two slightly different tales to both the Hill Times and the CBC.  In the former, he stated that "the Liberals, the group was coming to the end of their time, because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it clear that he wanted our group gone from the Senate.  So everybody was looking at various options."  But with the CBC, he stated that the rebranding exercise didn't sit right with him, and that "the end of the Liberals was the difficult part for me."

Downe also suggested that he would still support the Liberal Party and that the CSG allows for him to retain that membership though the PSG still would as well.  Add to that, Downe is telling the CBC that he suggested months ago that the Senate Liberals try to grow its membership to stave off extinction, but they had already been doing so part of the problem was that the new Senators were appointed on the promise that they be independent (even though they have no obligation to abide by that condition), and so even though a good many of them would feel at home within the Senate Liberal caucus, and even though the caucus was not whipped and gave its members a free hand to operate, they stuck with the Independent Senators Group some of them quite self-righteously, in fact.  I also have it on good authority that Downe was one of the members of the caucus who suggested the name change, and that he was very much a part of the rebranding exercise, so for him to walk away from it within a day of his signing onto the Senate administration paperwork that associated the rebranding exercise would certainly have left his now-former colleagues shocked.

With that in mind, I find myself speculating as to Downe's true motives, and my only real suspicion is that he saw the writing on the wall that without sufficient new blood in the PSG that it would cease to exist as a recognized caucus in the Senate and lose its funding and allocation of committee seats early in the New Year particularly if the Selection Committee isn't constituted until the New Year.  If he had wanted a committee seat, that could have been an impetus to move now rather than wait.  The slight complicating factor is that Downe is not currently on any Senate committees because he is one of the Senate members of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.  It's important work, and senators on that committee are especially supposed to provide some longer-term continuity, but the allocation of Senate seats on that committee were supposed to have some balance between the caucuses, and, well, Senator White is also on that committee.  With both White and Downe now part of the CSG, it will remain up to the prime minister to determine whether either of them should remain as the CSG representative, given that the Conservatives will need a new Senator to be on the committee, or if the CSG will overtake the spot that was for the Senate Liberals, or if there will yet be a spot for the Senate Liberals/PSG in the weeks or months to come, depending on whether the group can officially reconstitute itself.

And because it had been reported Monday afternoon that the PSG had officially folded, well, that's not entirely the case.  Officially, for the Senate's administrative purposes, they no longer have standing, but the remaining members will remain a cohesive group, and they are fully planning on sticking together.  It is likely that they will find new members within the next couple of weeks, but likely after the ISG has their retreat next week, and if the prime minister decides to cut Senator Peter Harder loose and find a new Government Leader in the Senate (and that rumour is certainly circulating).  That's the point at which some ISG members will start to shake themselves loose, if they're not currently drafting a press release about their plans to move caucuses.  The musical chairs will continue for at least a few more weeks as the Senate rearranges itself into this new format, and it will remain very interesting as to where everyone lands.

Photo Credit: Senate of Canada