All the political post-mortems that have sprung up since Canadians went to the polls last week are based on a false premise, namely that the 2019 election is actually over.

In fact, it isn't.

I say that because whenever electoral warfare results in a minority government, it doesn't bring real political peace, it simply means the warring factions in this case the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP enter into a kind of ceasefire mode, an armistice, during which they can regroup and re-tool for when electoral hostilities resume.

With that in mind, I thought it'd be kind of fun to figure out how the three main political parties will prepare for the election's eventual continuation.

Let's start by considering the victorious Liberals.

First off, their minority government status won't, I believe, trigger any changes in their outward behaviour or governing style.  The Liberals will still be as arrogant as always, they'll still be as pragmatic as always, they'll still be as photo-op prone as always.

But one big difference will be the Liberal Party's attitude towards Quebec.

I strongly suspect a Liberal strategist has looked at the electoral map of Canada and put a big red circle around that province and said something like, "That's where we win our majority back!"

After all, the only thing separating the Liberals from a virtual sweep of Quebec was the unexpected rise of the Bloc Quebecois, a party which likely took root in thin soil.  In other words, in the minds of Liberals, many of those Bloc seats could very well go their way next time.

Hence, watch for the Liberal government to make catering to Quebec one of its top priorities, meaning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau likely won't interfere in Quebec's various attempts to control or regulate its minority population, meaning SNC-Lavalin will likely get an assist from the government to help ease its legal troubles, meaning huge truckloads of federal cash will make their way into La Belle Province.

Meanwhile, alienation or no, the Liberal government's obsession with Quebec will result in them largely ignoring the needs of Western Canada.  Sorry Westerners, it's nothing personal; the cold political calculations for the Liberals are obvious: they can win a majority without Alberta or Saskatchewan; they can't win one without Quebec.

So what about the Conservatives, the guys and gals who left the electoral table disappointed and despondent?

I believe they'll spend much of the next year trying to find a new champion to lead them into combat.

Yes, that means I think current party leader Andrew Scheer won't survive a leadership review.

True, Scheer is a nice guy, and true he increased the Conservative seat and vote count from 2015, but at the end of the day he still lost, and lost to a prime minister who, bludgeoned by scandals, was wobbling.

And in politics, there's no greater sin than losing.

So we'll see a bitter and hotly contested Conservative leadership race, a race that'll pit the various Tory tribes against each other: Red Tories, social conservatives, libertarians, populists, etc.  It won't be pretty.

Who will emerge victorious?

Well, the Conservatives need a leader who can speak French fluently, who has some name recognition, who's tough, who can appeal to the party's base and who has some strong link to "seat-rich Ontario" so the choice is obvious: Stephen Harper.  (OK, that won't happen but it's fun to think about, yes?)

Finally, we come to the NDP.

Like Scheer, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is a loser and some have already called for his dismissal.

Yet, unlike Scheer, Singh exceeded expectations which, let's face it, were pretty darn low so even though the party is in worse shape now than it was in 2015, he will likely stay on for another kick at the can.

Somewhere Thomas Mulcair is screaming.

Anyway, this means New Democrats will spend much of the next year trying to strengthen its fragile condition, by raising as much money possible and by trying to raise the profile of their leader, all the while they try to squeeze whatever ideological concessions they can out of the Liberal government in an  attempt to stay relevant.

So that's what we should expect from our parties as they prepare during this quasi-political peace for 2019 Election — Part II.

Who knows, maybe the sequel will be better than the original.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics