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It is not unexpected to have a certain amount of bending the truth at election time, and that there would be a certain amount of spin and torque when it comes to framing one's opponents.  I can't recall, however, a time when complete and blatant fictions were being trotted out as serious fodder during a campaign, and yet here we are.  Day six of the election campaign, and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer was pressed by journalists with the fact that he and his candidates have been holding up a Liberal document they claim as "proof" that there is a secret plan to levy massive capital gains taxes on housing sales if they win the election, and that said document has been disavowed.  Scheer's response that Justin Trudeau lied, so he was going to keep bringing up the document, no matter that it was misleading.

This shouldn't a surprise.  Scheer has spent the past two years building up a narrative about the Liberals and their record that would be charitable to call fiction.  For months and daily on the campaign trail he spouts patent mistruths about the federal carbon price backstop, calling it a tax grab on the part of Trudeau (reminder: none of the money goes into federal coffers, and because those affected provinces have not committed to recycling revenues through things like income tax cuts, individual households will instead be receiving rebates that are worth more than they would have paid on average for the carbon price), as well as completely distorting the output-based pricing system for large emitters, claiming it gives a 90 percent discount to major emitters (again, misleading as the discounts can apply to sectors which are trade-exposed but are not widespread across all major industrial emitters).  He has put out videos of him convincing voters in Quebec that the federal carbon price applies to them in order to turn them against Trudeau (it doesn't Quebec has a cap-and-trade system which meets the federal carbon price criteria), and since his "real plan" for the environment has come out, has tried to convince people that he can achieve reductions and spur technological development without a price, when anyone with any sense knows that it would simply remove the transparency of the carbon price and producers would simply pass along the costs of increased regulation to consumers, who no longer get the rebates.

Add to that, Scheer makes constant misleading statements about the size of the deficit and the apparent necessity to raise taxes or to cut social programs to pay for it (with a declining debt-to-GDP ratio and consistent GDP growth, neither will happen, particularly given that we remain in a period of low interest rates that are unlikely to rise even into the neutral range for the foreseeable future).  He repeats the debunked Fraser Institute figure that claims middle-class taxes were raised (it refers to cancelled non-refundable tax credits, CPP increases, and ignores the effect of the Canada Child Benefit on disposable income).  He has and continues to say that there is an RCMP investigation into the Double-Hyphen Affair, which there is not.  He spread disinformation that a UK child killer was being sent to Canada when it was both untrue and debunked by major media organizations months before made the accusation.  He once spent a Question Period pretending that Trudeau was simply refusing to answer his questions when Trudeau was absent, then sent out the clips over social media falsely making the claim that Trudeau refused to answer.  He makes false statements about irregular border crossers and asylum seekers "jumping the queue" when no queue exists merely a process.  He asserts that Trudeau capitulated to Donald Trump on the new NAFTA negotiations when the concessions that Trudeau agreed to were the very same ones that the Conservatives negotiated with the TPP when the Americans were still part of those discussions and presumes that Donald Trump is a rational actor, which we all know he is not.

Which brings us to the document in question that Scheer and his candidates most especially Lisa Raitt and Candice Bergen have been circulating.  The claim is that it's a secret plan to impose a 50 percent capital gains tax on housing sales because the narrative they keep promulgating is that Trudeau needs to raise taxes to pay for his deficits (which is, again, untrue).  The problem is that the document says nothing of the sort.  It was a report from a consultation process and meant as an internal discussion piece.  It was not adopted the National Housing Plan is on the record and the proposal therein was that such a tax could be applied to a house sold within the first year of purchase, and would decline over five years, as a means of discouraging "flipping" houses amidst soaring prices in hot housing markets.  And yet, this false version is circulating, knowing full well that it's completely misleading, and it's doing so with Scheer's blessing.  When called out by reporters, Scheer stood by the tactic because he says that Justin Trudeau lied, that he was lying about the Conservatives' plans (Trudeau says that the Conservatives will only offer cuts when Scheer insists that he pledged otherwise), so it was fair for him to raise the document.

The problem in all of this is that Scheer is trying to make this an election about "who do you trust?"  He says that Trudeau has "lost the moral authority to govern" based on the Double-Hyphen Affair, and yet he admits on camera that he's disseminating false information and justifying it by saying that his opponent lies.  But if he's spreading the very same lies, does that not put his own ethical conduct and character into question, and invite the Liberals to further claim that while Scheer says he won't cut social programs, he's lying about other things (lots and lots of other things, verifiably), so why could you trust that he's telling the truth about not making cuts?  This seems like the most bone-headed, short-sighted tactics imaginable, like he is deliberately shooting himself in the foot possibly in the hopes of blaming it on someone else.  If he openly admits to spreading falsehoods, he undermines his own question about a leader whom you can trust and that is just going to drive the cynicism of the voting public.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


There is always a slight pause in the news cycle in Alberta after a major man-made or natural disaster affecting global oil prices.

It's just a respectful beat, waiting until the disaster has sunk in, before politicians and pundits state the obvious: this might be bad for somebody else but it's pretty darn good for Alberta.

After the drone attack on the Saudi oil facility on the weekend, finance minister Travis Toews spelled it out to the Edmonton Journal: "Certainly (I'm) not a fan of any conflict globally.  But the result is, as energy prices rise, it improves the revenue picture."

For Premier Jason Kenney, who fortuitously was already on a junket to boost U.S. investment in the oilsands, the timing appears, on at least one level, to be ideal.

"The strike against the refineries in Saudi Arabia is not the end of the story, it points to a deeper problem in terms of instability and unpredictability from OPEC countries, so I hope investors realizes that safety, stability, security in Canada is worth an awful lot," Kenney said in New York.

While the amount of oil the province can export remains constrained by finite pipeline capacity, the price of what it does transport is going up along with the international price of oil.  Canadian oil firms, in the stock exchange dumps for months, are also being buoyed by the tide of international oil supply concern.

Some industry commenters are quietly suggesting current events could even jumpstart progress on pipelines, both in Canada and the U.S.

The government is apparently looking at lifting the oil production curtailment policy, originally established by the NDP to push down the price differential for Alberta oil compared to international prices.  Kenney has said if the province can unload railcar purchase contracts, another NDP initiative, to the industry, the extra oil sent by rail would be exempt from curtailment.

Basically it's a make hay while the sun shines strategy boost exports as the price rises due to the Middle Eastern uncertainty.

There are two or three clouds on the horizon, of course.  How long it will take Saudi Arabia to get its giant facility back up to full steam is uncertain.  The whole question of whether the world is headed to a major Middle Eastern conflict is casting dark shadows.

And for Kenney, despite the opportunity to trumpet his province's virtues to an external audience, there is one singular hitch in the timing.

In about a month, the Kenney government is going to deliver its first budget.  All signals point to a tight-fisted approach to spending, and a government determined to face down public sector workers over wages.

This is supposed to be a budget predicated on changing the channel on a history of spending to capacity during oil booms.  The message, supported by several years of flat to declining revenues, is that the roller coaster has come to a stop.  But now, superficially, it looks like there's another ride left and selling that tough-times rationale is going to be pretty hard.

Robert Skinner, executive fellow with the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, sounded the alarm fairly quickly after the Saudi attack in terms of how the province should react fiscally to the good times that seem to be ahead.

"When the price goes up, that's good for the province's industry, but to rest your future on other people's disasters is not exactly a good strategy," Skinner told the Calgary Herald.

It's not a good strategy, but it's so very tempting, especially for a government tapped into populist sentiment.

The current uptick in the province's fortunes may just delay the inevitable reckoning.  Alberta can't depend forever on energy revenues.  The economy has to be diversified and the province needs more stable revenue sources, including a provincial sales tax.

Kenney and his government will be back in the legislature on Oct. 8.  No doubt, the speeches are already written about what a bad hand Alberta has been dealt by delayed pipelines and how everyone should shoulder a bit of pain to get the budget back on track.  The question now is how that song will play in an environment of rising oil prices.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.