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As a Loonie Politics Political Columnist Type Person, I would like to use the platform I have been afforded to recognize a constituency that is well known and well respected by all, but doesn't get nearly enough credit from the political class.  They may not be "high profile".  They may not have a "buzz" around them.  They prefer to dig in their gardens and wear those canvas hats with the wide floppy brims and a piece of string for a chin strap.  But without these fine folks the province would have been lost to the ravages of extremism long ago.

I speak, of course, of those stalwarts who have stuck with the PCs in good times and bad.  You know they have been, because they tell you, often, how many years they've been doing it for.

They might tell you that they cast a ballot for Sir James Whitney after being moved by his passionate denunciations of the Mowat administration's rampant pork-barreling, and you might believe them.  When Bill Davis blew up the party by funding Catholic schools, they resolutely marched to the polls, braving screaming crowds hurling religious abuse while U2's "Sunday Bloody Sunday" played in the background on repeat.  When Mike Harris murdered Dudley George in cold blood and subjected the town of Walkerton to pestilence and plague, they blamed Bob Rae and the previous NDP government.  When the chuckleheads doing Tim Hudak's advance work in 2014 didn't bother to get a permit to film a video on the TTC and Tim looked like a doofus… ehhhh… they had second thoughts.

These people have been STUPIDLY loyal (emphasis mine).  They may not have liked everything about Doug Ford, or even anything about Doug Ford, but the Liberals had made a real mess of things and after 16 years it was time for a change.  They would have preferred Patrick Brown, or Christine Elliott, or even a stick dipped in blue paint, but going into the 2018 election, it was what it was.

Now, however, they're getting a little worried about the way things are being handled down at Queen's Park.  They don't want to say anything, but… of course there were going to have to be SOME cuts.  They just didn't expect that anyone would get UPSET about the cuts.  And who could have predicted that a member of the Ford family would surround himself with loyalists instead of taking the advice of seasoned political veterans?

Meanwhile, the Liberals may have been downgraded from the Minivan Party to the Sedan Party after their two Ottawa members quit, but even so they're still reaching for the stars by trying to draft astronaut Chris Hadfield, or perhaps just Hadfield's mustache, to run for Liberal leader.  Another household name that could add some sizzle to the Liberal steak while tossing some red meat to their base is Jack "Kiefer Sutherland" Bauer, who laid one of the all-time-great burns in Canadian political history on Doug Ford when he quoted some American Senator guy from 1988 and said, "I knew Tommy Douglas and you, sir, are no Tommy Douglas."  Ouuuch!  Do you need some waterboarding after that burn, Doug, just like the terrorists that Kiefer Sutherland used to waterboard on the popular TV show "24" which I am referencing right now?

Anyway, these traditional PC voters are right to be concerned about the fact that the Liberals aren't just drying up and blowing away forever.  When the PC's got back into government, it was supposed to be just like it was back in the good old Big Blue Machine days, where there was no possibility that another party could win an election.  If the party has to actually work to win the next election, it'll be because of distractions like reports of MPP's being berated to the point of tears in public, Randy Hillier and Dean French fighting like an old married couple, or the Premier being booed at the Raptors parade by people who just fled a shooting.

Unlike the Liberals, however, these traditional PC's have been making their voices heard, which is why Ford managed to get back to what his base really wants from him: triggering the left by marching in a Pride Parade.

Photo Credit: Toronto Star

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


For Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer things are looking pretty good right now.

He's doing well in the polls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has suffered a crippling brand meltdown thanks to the SNC-Lavalin scandal, and, recent conservative electoral victories in provinces all across Canada certainly seem to suggest he's riding the crest of an unstoppable "Blue Wave".

Yet despite all that good stuff, it could still rain on the Conservative Party's parade.

In other words, lots things could go wrong for Scheer between now and Election Day.

What kind of things, you ask?

Well, here's a list I've compiled, in no particular order, of possible roadblocks on Scheer's path to power:

  • The Ford Factor

Ontario Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford's perceived "reckless" spending cuts coupled with his feckless leadership is undermining the Conservative Party's reputation for competent governance.  And yes, fairly or not, Conservatives do have such a reputation.  In fact, Scheer's plan is likely to trumpet that competence in the next federal election.  Thus, if Ford's missteps take that card off the table it could sabotage a key component of the Conservative Party's messaging strategy.

  • Media Coverage

Let's face it, the Canadian media regards Trudeau the same way Toronto Raptor fans regard Kawhi Leonard.  Yes, Trudeau's lustre with the media has faded somewhat in recent years, but when push comes to shove, Trudeau's still their guy.  So you better believe they will amplify and magnify every Scheer gaffe or misstep; indeed they will magnify and amplify the misstep of anyone even remotely connected to the Conservative Party.  True, the influence of mainstream media isn't what it used to be, but it's still a force to be reckoned with.

  • Combat Skills

The Liberals and their allies have already started to bury Scheer in an avalanche of smears.  So he needs to fight fire with fire.  To be blunt, he must find the sharpest axe he can find and start hacking away at Trudeau's brand.  But here's the question: Can he hold his own in a political street fight?  So far, I've seen little evidence to suggest he can.  Plus, running an effective "attack ad" strategy requires a high level of strategic acuity.  Does Scheer's team have that skill?  At any rate, if Scheer can't or won't fight back the chances of Conservative victory will diminish.

  • Vote Splits

Vote splitting could be an issue for Scheer.  For instance, we hear a lot about how the Liberal Party is bleeding support to the Greens, but, if the Green upsurge is due to a populist impulse, isn't it also possible some voters could shift from the Conservatives to the Green Party?  Also, keep in mind Maxime Bernier's People's Party is still lurking in the shadows.  It too could steal Tory votes.  And what happens if the Bloc Quebecois makes a comeback in La Belle Province.  Would it cut into Tory support?  In a tight race little losses could have a big impact.

  • The Power of Incumbency

Justin Trudeau has one big advantage in 2019, he didn't enjoy in 2015, i.e. he now has the two words "prime minster" in front of his name.  As a sitting incumbent, Trudeau can do all sorts of cool things: he can jet to Washington D.C. or to Europe and look all statesmanlike; he gets to set the agenda and to frame the debate, he also has the power to dispense election goodies.  In short, it's easy for him to look and act prime ministerial.

As you can see, Scheer faces possible bumps on the road to Ottawa.  And, by the way, this is just a partial list of potential "what if" scenarios which could derail the Tory Express, others include what if, Scheer bungles the TV debate; what if, during the election, there's "white nationalist" terrorist attack, what if Trudeau runs a brilliant campaign?

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting Scheer will lose.

He still has a lot of advantages and Trudeau still has lots millstones around his neck.

All I'm saying to Conservatives is remember the Roman saying, "Ante victoriam ne canas triumphumwhich roughly translated means, don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

Photo Credit: National Observer

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.