Why do politicians do such dumb stuff, voters as well as columnists ask.  And sometimes politicians return the favour.  I mean what is anyone to make of a poll saying Canadians favour the Tories over the Liberals in the upcoming election and vice versa?

No, it's not a typo.  At least not one by me.  The National Post recently ran a Canadian Press story saying a new opinion survey shows that "Thirty-eight per cent of respondents said they would vote for Andrew Scheer's Conservatives if an election were held today, versus 29 per cent for Trudeau's Liberals".  But "when respondents were asked whether Canada would be better off under a Liberal or a Conservative government: 34 per cent preferred the Liberals versus 20 per cent the Conservatives."

Now let me get this straight.  Nearly one in five of you plan to vote for a party you think would leave Canada worse off?  Are you disloyal, or just addled?

The CP story was basically about the horse race.  Skipping blithely over what seems to me the more important and surprising aspect, it said "A new poll suggests the federal Liberals have stopped the bleeding from the beating they took in the SNC-Lavalin furor."  And it went on, unsurprisingly one is tempted to add, to take a pretty favourable view of Liberal prospects, saying "the poll also suggests the Liberals have opened up a 14-point lead over the Conservatives when it comes to which of the two main parties Canadians would prefer to see form government after the Oct. 21 vote" before conceding that "the poll suggests more Canadians are worried about the prospect of four more years of Trudeau's Liberals than they are about the Conservatives regaining power."

It then went on to mine the data, including that 25% chose Andrew Scheer as the leader who'd make the best prime minister versus 22% for Justin Trudeau.  If you're wondering who the other 53% wanted, especially since after Scheer and Trudeau took their share more than half was left, it's 8% Elizabeth May, 6% Jagmeet Singh and 4% Maxime Bernier.

Now again we're rather short of 100%.  Indeed we're only at 65%, leaving the remaining 35% going "Aaaack what? That's the choice?" or possibly checking a superficially sober "Other" box; the story didn't say.  And the survey got this result despite 13% intending to vote NDP, 11% Green and 3% the PPC.  So more than half of those planning to vote NDP don't think their leader is the best choice.  Which I suppose is understandable in the narrow sense.  But more broadly, what is going on here?  Are Canadian voters insane or chronically confused?

Perhaps not.  I can't say I always approve of their choices.  Or that I ever really do.  But what I think the poll shows is, first, that online polls such as this one are pretty flimsy.  They are not a random sample.  But oddly they are a sample of the more politically engaged and even so we get this strange result.

Second, therefore, the public does not think about politics in the same way that pundits or even politicians do.  Even the semi-engaged public.  We pundits tend to favour consistency and politicians think of their profession as a bench-clearing brawl.  Meanwhile the public takes a very dim view of everyone involved, participants and commentators alike (except me, obviously) and when consulted express anxiety verging on panic.

For instance they feel that nobody is a really good leader.  Which is hard to argue with.  They doubt that any party is fit to govern.  Which is hard to argue with.  And they're anxious about entrusting power to anyone so they hedge their bets.  Which alas you can't do on voting day because unlike, say, Amazon or Canadian Tire, you can't get your money back if the product stinks.  (Which is part of the reason I have, after long debate and reluctantly, been persuaded that recall is a good idea and not incompatible with a Parliamentary system.)

If I'm reading the tea leaves right, what does this poll tell us is probably brewing up on October 21?  Again I'm tempted to say it tells us nothing at all, since respondents intend to vote Liberal, Conservative and neither, those who support the Grits don't and ditto for the Tories, and anyway whatever pattern the poll hints at is within the normal boundaries of Canadian elections.  It will be a two-way race in which the NDP and Greens play spoiler a bit and the PPC struggles to do the same.  Which we all knew anyway (unless the PPC has hidden strength because its supporters don't trust pollsters.)

As we also knew, partisans aside, people increasingly think Trudeau is a shallow hypocrite whose sunny ways include a surprising amount of snarly, while Andrew Scheer makes so little impression they wonder if he really exists, Singh is a failed attempt to imitate Trudeau, May a scold and Bernier a flake.  And they think all the parties are selfish, childish and borderline incompetent although when push comes to shove the Liberals seem less inept which is a mixed blessing given their capacity to run roughshod over scandals.

At the outset I suggested that this poll might suggest the public are addled.  But it doesn't really, because it's hard to argue with their negative view of all the contenders and their consequent difficulty making a choice.  Politicians think voters should be down-the-line partisans unable to detect flaws in the home team or virtues in the hated rival and yelling at the referee if every call doesn't go their way.  Pundits think voters should be down-the-line ideologues who demand purity and consistency from contenders for office.  (I know I do.)

Voters wish the contenders weren't such a bunch of mean-spirited, screaming nitwits, and mostly ignore polls.  So there's quite a bit of wisdom in crowds after all.

Photo Credit: CTV News