LP_468x60
on-the-record-468x60-white

One of the weirdest things about the seemingly never-ending SNC-Lavalin scandal saga (and there are lots of weird things about it) is how it has suddenly evolved into something resembling an episode from the Game Of Thrones.

What I mean is, in short order, this scandal has gone from being a relatively simple tale of government officials allegedly twisting ethics to a melodramatic, complex political conspiracy thriller, in which two shrewdly ambitious women are seeking to topple their leader, Justin Trudeau, from his prime ministerial perch.

Or at least that's how some people are trying to spin the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

The CBC's Neil Macdonald, for instance, recently penned a column with the dramatic, eye-catching headline:  "At this point, the Philpott-Wilson-Raybould end game is obvious — destroy Trudeau."

In this piece Macdonald ominously notes that Jane Philpott and Jody Wilson-Raybould, who, of course, are both at the centre of this controversy, are engaging in what he called a "power play."

Writes Macdonald: "Might it simply be that Philpott and Wilson-Raybould are being coy because they want to inflict maximum damage on Trudeau from within his own caucus, which they know is the most effective place to do it?  Might they intend to push for a leadership review after this fall's election, or, even better, before it?"

In other words he thinks Philpott and Wilson-Raybould are engineering an anti-Trudeau coup from within the Liberal Party.

To me, Macdonald's theory, while fun to ponder, is really farfetched.

Now before I go on, I get why people like MacDonald and others, might embrace the "coup d'etat" explanation for what's going on with the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

For one thing, the Liberal party has had a history of nasty internecine warfare; we all remember the spite-filled feud that erupted so publicly between Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.

Plus, and this is just human nature, we don't like to accept the idea that dramatic events occur randomly or haphazardly; instead we always prefer to believe that some guiding intelligence is knocking down dominoes in a pre-planned, pre-meditated manner.

It helps us makes sense of the world.

This is why conspiracy theories flourish in our society; people are willing to believe all sorts of hare-brained ideas simply because they seem to explain life's mysteries, i.e. reptilian aliens are running the world from a secret base on the moon or dinosaurs helped to build the pyramids or Russian agents rigged the last US presidential election or Stephen Harper was the spawn of Satan.

And lastly, I must concede, the way Philpott and Wilson-Raybould have so exquisitely timed their devastatingly effective salvos against the Prime Minister's Office, does lead some credence to the notion that they might have ulterior motives.

Yet, despite all that I still don't believe Philpott and Wilson-Raybould should seriously be considered as the Cassius and Brutus to Trudeau's Julius Caesar.

Why?

Well a couple of reasons.

Firstly, those who kill the king, can't replace the king.

My point is, if Philpott and Wilson-Raybould were intent on killing Trudeau's leadership, they would have to realize that neither one of them would ever replace him as leader.

Indeed, by the time you read this, both women might be kicked out of the Liberal caucus.

Secondly, and more importantly, the main question I have is this: why would Philpott or Wilson-Raybould or any other Liberal for that matter want to stage a coup d'etat at this particular time?

After all, before the SNC-Lavalin scandal erupted, Trudeau was doing fairly well in the polls and seemed destined to win yet another majority victory in October.

So why, just months before an election, would it be in the interest of any Liberal to set off a political Gotterdammerung.

Or to put that in a less Wagnerian way, why would any Liberal want to kill the Sunny Ways golden goose?

It just doesn't make sense.

And yes I know there are probably many Liberals out there who might resent Trudeau's leadership or who might disagree with his policies.

But keep in mind, the Liberal Party is not an ideological organization; it's party that craves one thing and one thing only: power.

And that's the sweet prize Trudeau is dangling before his followers.

So yeah, I don't buy at all the Philpott, Wilson-Raybould coup d'état conspiracy theory.

To me, the whole idea is just a fabrication dreamed up by Trudeau loyalists who are trying to smear the two women as traitors.

At any rate, I think it's time the media dropped that crazy conspiracy angle and instead concentrated on telling the real story behind the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

And I think we all know that real story: the whole thing is being secretly orchestrated by extraterrestrial Lizard men living on the moon.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Dealing with unruly locals by sending a gunboat seems very much out of fashion.  But if politicians and voters don't want foreign tyrants to invade their neighbours, slaughter people, or mess with vital international trade, sometimes you have to do it.  At which point it's kind of embarrassing to find you're pretty much out of gunboats.

Like Britain.  Acting like a responsible global power they seized a tanker, Grace 1, thought to be smuggling Iranian oil to Syria via Gibraltar.  In response the Iranians seized a British tanker called the Stena Impero in the vital straits of Hormuz.  Which apparently nobody saw coming.  Then the British somehow dredged up two gunboats, one destroyer and one frigate.  But it was too little, and far too difficult.

In reporting the incident NBC buried the key detail.  Specifically, quoting an "assistant professor of maritime security at Coventry University" in its 16th paragraph: "The situation is extremely different from the '80s for example when I think the Royal Navy had over 50 destroyers and frigates, and now it has under 20."  And while this deployment of over 10% of its available forces can probably prevent other tankers being seized, for as long as it can be sustained, NBC also said while "experts suggest that British special forces are likely to be able to seize the Stena Impero, the oil tanker would be too slow to exit Iranian waters safely."

That the navy can't escort it out safely underlines that British security, like Canadian, is in terrible shape.  And that seems to have happened without anyone noticing or caring.  Voters and politicians expect the benefits of a robust military they can't be bothered to maintain.

The Royal Air Force is smaller than since 1914, when pilots fired handguns at one another in canvas biplanes.  The army's an overstretched mess.  And the Royal Navy is smaller than since Henry VIII, with fewer surface ships than the French for the first time since Louis XIV.  There are two big shiny new aircraft carriers, but alas no aircraft to carry.  I mean you can't have everything, right.  You want a driveshaft and a propeller?

I've told more than once of then-PM David Cameron responding to the 2011 Libyan crisis by demanding to know where the nearest aircraft carrier was and weary admirals pointing to the drydock where himself had put it without apparently grasping that you can't play Nelson without ships.  But what's with all the admirals to point wearily?

As the Telegraph noted unhappily a decade ago, Britain had 41 (counting rear and vice) for just 40 fighting ships.  And if you're thinking 41 captains would have been more like it, the Telegraph pointedly added, "Nearly all the ships and submarines are commanded by officers that are three ranks below that of rear-admiral."  Most ships are commanded by "Commanders", which makes linguistic sense.  But how does it make military sense to have countless higher-ranking captains and commodores reporting on nothing to dozens of admirals?

One excuse is that the admirals are managing the construction of new ships.  And Britain is getting some pretty impressive ones.  But not enough or not soon enough.  The Royal Navy now has about 75 commissioned ships including Nelson's 18th-century Trafalgar flagship HMCS Victory.  Which I approve of keeping on the roster as a reminder of what the navy once was and should be.  But today that 75 includes two "amphibious transport docks", 13 minesweepers, 4 survey ships and an "ice patrol ship".  All of which are important auxiliary assets.  Even the "static ship" which turns out to be a building.  But where are the big scary main ships?

When the Telegraph went after the navy for being top-heavy and feeble a decade ago they got the usual officious bwa-bwa-bwa in response including "The Royal Navy is one of the world's most powerful navies with a modern and capable warfare capability."  Which might be true, given the inadequate defence budgets of most democracies and the lousy technology and discipline of most non-democratic armed forces.  But the relevant question is: Can it get the job done?  And the answer is no.

This navy is not a global force capable of sustaining losses and functioning.  Or even keeping Iran from bagging tankers in the strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world's oil passes, and over a third of all seaborn oil.

There's always Uncle Sam to run to when bullied.  The U.S. navy, although much diminished recently, can still deploy 288 ships (of nearly 500).  And its 3,700 working planes make it the 3rd largest air force in the world after… the U.S. air force and the U.S. Army air force.  (Canada has roughly 72 fighter planes, and the navy borrows them and helicopters from the Air Force; Britain's Royal Navy now has 174 planes.)  But there's something shabby and unsafe about picking a fight then telling your unruly cousin and the Iranians, "Hey, let's you and him fight."

Voters in democracies expect the lights to stay on and foreign tyrants to be kept at bay.  They find sending a gunboat distasteful… until a foreign crisis erupts.  And they think they pay taxes partly for a robust defence establishment.  But they don't pay enough, or get enough.  As in many other areas of government, to be sure.  But national security comes first, because without it, nothing else matters.

Politicians don't seem to know it.  They talk as though it was 1894 but arm as though it was 1937.  And voters let them, because in a democracy it's all fun and games until somebody loses a tanker.

Photo Credit: The Daily Express

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.