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This is good political and economic news not only for the province, but the entire country

Albertans will head to the ballot boxes today.  Who will they choose to lead the next provincial government?

Recent public opinion polls show Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party leading Premier Rachel Notley's NDP by a comfortable margin.  Pollara Strategic Insights has the UCP ahead by 45 to 38 per cent (April 10), Nanos Research suggests the difference is 44.3 to 36.4 per cent (April 13), and Ipsos has it at 50 to 40 per cent (April 10).

Stephen Mandel's centrist Alberta Party is hovering between eight and 12 per cent of popular support, and will likely form the legislature's third party.  David Khan's centrist Alberta Liberals should get between 2.5 and four per cent of the vote, but no more than a seat or two.  Derek Fildebrandt's right-leaning Freedom Conservatives will likely end up at two to 2.2 per cent of the vote, and he could hang on to his seat.

In all of these scenarios, Kenney would become Alberta's 18th premier with a majority government.  This would be good political and economic news not only for the province, but the entire country.

The UCP leader is an intelligent, articulate fiscal and social conservative.  From his days as president/CEO of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Reform/Canadian Alliance MP and Conservative cabinet minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper, he's always supported smaller government, lower taxes, free market economics, and individual rights and freedoms.  These core values have also been a part of his provincial political career as the last Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leader and the first UCP leader.

A right-leaning, pro-free-enterprise thinker like Kenney running in a province that championed small 'c' conservative values for eight decades was a natural fit for the electorate.

As for the NDP, it's no secret they won the 2015 Alberta election largely due to a massive protest vote against then-PC premier Jim Prentice.

Notley's left-wing cheerleading for a carbon tax, increased taxes on high-income earners and enhanced union control, among other things, is completely out of step with most sensible-thinking Albertans.

Alberta's political climate isn't as sharply conservative as it used to be.  Urban and rural demographics have also transformed due to immigration and migration from other provinces.

Nevertheless, there's no history or appeal in this province when it comes to left-wing politics and policies.  The NDP is, therefore, a short-term experiment with voter rage against the political establishment.

The UCP will be the long-term antidote for good governance and fiscal prudence.

A month ago, this seemed like a foregone conclusion.  Alas, a day in politics can be a lifetime.

Kenney has spent much of the campaign fighting against past comments, including his acknowledged role in the 1980s in overturning hospital visitation rights to the gay partners of dying AIDS patients in San Francisco.  Allegations that he's linked to a stalking horse candidate during the UCP leadership race remain unproven but won't disappear.  Two UCP candidates resigned due to controversial remarks and Kenney continues to defend a candidate who once questioned whether gay love was real.

Kenny also had a tense April 4 interview with radio host Charles Adler concerning some of these contentious issues.  It was hardly the bombshell some people made it out to be, or reflective of Jen Gerson's assessment in Maclean's magazine that it was "uncomfortable, and even disturbing to listen to."

Sure, Kenney was forced to take a couple of steps back to defend himself.  But his answers were adequate, and he didn't stumble and fall.  Politics is the art of survival and his experience enabled him to escape the lion's den relatively unharmed.

He then had a good showing at the leaders' debate, did well travelling the province and rebuilt lost support.  Alberta's historic love affair with conservatism returned in a hurry.

Today's provincial election won't be a blowout.  Albertans will likely give Kenney the keys to the kingdom with a smaller majority and keep a close eye on his growth and development as a premier.

He's the right person to lead Alberta by a country mile but he still needs to become the right leader for all Albertans.

Photo Credit: Troy Media

Troy Media columnist and political commentator Michael Taube was a speechwriter for former prime minister Stephen Harper.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The weird thing is that the threat of climate change is dire enough that it doesn't need to be exaggerated.  But that's exactly what the left is doing.

"The whole premise of the Green New Deal is that we're screwed on climate," says Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.  "What's the point of going to school if I won't have a future?" asks 11-year-old climate striker Sophia Mathur of Sudbury, Ontario.  Corporations who won't do anything to stop climate change are doing so because they desire a Masque Of The Red Death scenario where the planet is purged of undesirables, mutter a host of continuously self-beclowning left-wing Canadian podcasters.

Climate change is happening, and it's going to keep on happening, and the effects are going to be pretty terrible, and there are going to need to be changes.  This is clear.  Is the world going to end?  Are we going to go through a MaddAddam Trilogy scenario?  PROBABLY NOT.

Maybe it was too much to expect that we could have a reasoned debate on climate change when every other political Hot Topic has devolved into a mostly pointless shouting match.  And the right has obviously engaged in full on climate denialism for years.  But as always: the left claims to hold a level of moral authority on this issue.  It's why Catherine McKenna makes those execrable and awkward Twitter videos.  It's why downtown Torontonians are so insufferably smug about public transit and cycling.  It is, up to a point, why Trudeau tossed Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott overboard- because after all, isn't Lavscam just a big and pointless distraction from the Liberal token efforts to "put a price on pollution"?  Well, Andrew Cohen thinks so, anyway.

And, despite a few bumps in the road, this authoritarian and disingenuous strategy was working out pretty well for the Liberals.  Thanks to a good deal of bumbling and the outright racism and conspirazoid thinking of their own loudest and dumbest members, the Yellow Vests were successfully written off as a bunch of yahoos with absolutely no valid concerns, and the Liberals managed to ensnare Andrew Scheer in the bargain as well.  In Alberta, Jason Kenney is coating himself in crap and doing everything he can to make sure Notley gets rewarded for introducing her own carbon tax.  Doug Ford can plaster as many stickers on as many gas pumps as he wants and it'll go over as well as Oily the Splot did back in 2008.

This is all happening because the left has won the debate on climate change and for the right, it's all over but the crying and everybody knows it.  It took a few decades and a couple of Roland Emmerich movies, but here we are.  You did it, guys.  You finally got "social license" for your stupid tax that won't do a thing to stop climate change.  There was no need for you to discard the high-and-mighty pretense and engage in base scaremongering.  Except of course there was, because for the left, there is no victory unless there is total and complete domination.  You can't declare victory, because that would mean there would be one less thing to have a phony war against.

What we are seeing, as the left takes this increasingly shrill and detached-from-reality tone, is a tacit acknowledgment on their part that the overwhelming weight of evidence isn't enough.  Not when racist uncles across the country are still wondering why celebrities get to fly around the world to global warming conferences at holiday dinners.  Did they look at Faith Goldy's fulminations on illegal immigration and say, "We can do better?"  Because that's what it sounds like.  At this rate we may soon start hearing that people in the global south are LITERALLY BEING REPLACED by climate change.

I would like to take comfort in the usual conservative maxim that eventually the left will take things too far and there will be a backlash, but, as we see here, there is no such thing as "too far".  So, let us take another lesson from the sad case of the left-wingers who couldn't just take the W, and realize that when they talk of "evidence-based policy", they are only interested insofar as the evidence conforms with their own ideology.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


According to many pundits and journalists, i.e. people who like to think they actually know what's going on in this crazy old world of ours, the amazing phenomenon known as "Trudeaumania" is now all but dead.

"Trudeaumania," of course, is what we called the frenzied love affair us Canadians once enjoyed with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a leader who was perceived not so much as a man, but as a political god, someone who transcended mundane, regular politics and who would surely lift the entire planet into a blissful state of "sunny ways" nirvana.

But now, if the polls are to be believed, that rosy, utopian-tinged perception about Trudeau has apparently all but evaporated.  (Though it still seems to exist as strong as ever in certain corners of the CBC and Toronto Star.)

What killed Trudeaumania is no mystery: it was the SNC-Lavalin scandal, a sordid affair which, among other things, put on open display Trudeau's less than god-like weaknesses as a leader his vacillation, his arrogance, his poor communication skills, his "fake feminism" and his astounding ability to take a mole hill and turn it into Mount Everest.

Although it could also be argued that Trudeaumania has, in fact, been petering out for about a year now.

The Prime Minister Trudeau's ill-fated trip to India, his fights over oil pipelines, his proposed carbon tax, have all combined to tarnish Trudeau's once idolized brand.

So I guess you could say the SNC-Lavalin affair was essentially the final nail in Trudeaumania's coffin.

At any rate, to paraphrase Shakespeare, I write this column to analyze Trudeaumania, not to praise it.

Wait… now that I think about it, forget Shakespeare, I actually do want to praise Trudeaumania.

At least, in a way.

After all, love him or hate him, you have to agree that Trudeau's undeniable charisma and affable, boyish charm managed to accomplish something rather remarkable and astonishing: it saved the Liberal Party from the very brink of political extinction.

Yes I know that sounds a little dramatic, but keep in mind that back in the party's dark days following the thrashing it took in the 2011 federal election the Liberals seemed to have little hope.

Not only was the party  reduced to an embarrassing third-party status, not only was it having trouble raising money, not only had it suffered through a string of ineffective leaders, not only was it losing votes to the NDP's vaunted "Orange Wave", but in addition to all that, it faced a determined foe in then Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Indeed, in all their long history, the Liberals had never had to face an opponent quite like him.  Intelligent, ruthless and calculating, Harper was focussing all his power and all his skills to exploit every Liberal weakness to the fullest.

To be blunt, his goal was nothing less than to destroy the Liberal Party, to crush it into little bits of red dust.

This is why in those days pundits and journalists were saying the only way to defeat the Conservatives was to "Unite the Left,", i.e. to merge the Liberals with the NDP.

And one more electoral defeat would likely have pushed the Liberals over the edge.

In short, if it was to survive intact, the Liberal Party desperately needed a miracle.

That miracle arrived with the advent of Trudeaumania.

Indeed, when the Liberals picked him as their leader in 2013, Canadians could not help but love him; his magic last name, his rock star persona, his adorable enthusiasm for Canada, made him all but irresistible.

But he was still an untested novice when he took the reins of the Liberal Party, and rushing him into the leadership role to take on the battle-hardened Harper in the 2015 federal election was a huge gamble.

And as well all know, it paid off big time.

Why?  What explains the miracle of Trudeaumania?

Well, as it happens, in 2015 Canada was more than ready to embrace a "fun" leader, regardless of experience.

For one thing, Canadians wanted their own version of the hip Barack Obama; for another thing Harper, with his dour, boring personality, had more or less worn out his welcome, especially with the Canadian media, for another thing, the NDP had replaced as leader the popular late Jack Layton with the lackluster Thomas Mulcair.

In such an environment, Trudeaumania soared.

But hey, as they say "what goes up, must come down."

And the danger for the Liberals is that once the Trudeaumania craze truly crashes, their party might turn back into a pumpkin.

In other words, it'll be what it was before Trudeau's arrival, namely, a party that lacks vision, a party that lacks ideological consistency, a party that lacks roots outside of Canada's major urban centres and a party that's identified with scandal and with eastern-based big money capitalists.

And in this day and age, when populism of both the left and right variety is all the rage, that could be a bad look for the Liberals; really bad.

It's no coincidence, for instance, that Liberal Parties lacking the Trudeaumania magic have recently lost power in British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick and Quebec.

Plus, let's not forget the media will likewise miss Trudeaumania.

After all, journalists have grown addicted to writing reams of copy praising prime ministerial socks.

So in a post-Trudeaumania world, the Liberals and the media will need another miracle.

Hence, get ready for Freelandmania!

Photo Credit: Rolling Stone

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Independent senators — and the faux-independent Leader of the Government in the Senate, Senator Peter Harder — have been sending out numerous press releases and tweets for the past several days about a poll recently conducted at the behest of Senator Donna Dasko.  Its conclusion?  That Canadians love the "new" Senate.  Now, did Canadians understand the "old" Senate?  Nope.  So, if they didn't understand the old one, how can they love the new one?  Senator Dasko may well have polled Canadians as to whether they liked ponies or unicorns, and she probably would have received similar results.

The questions being asked in this poll, according to the posted methodology, had people giving responses on their general impressions on Canadian senators, and whether they had heard of any changes that have been made to the Senate over the past few years.  From there, it asked for positive or negative impressions on changes to the appointment process, including:

  • Canadian citizens can now APPLY for Senate positions that come open?
  • An independent advisory board reviews and assesses the applications for the Senate that are received?
  • New Senators are not active in a political party and sit as independent members in the Senate?
  • Taken together, do you think these changes will improve the Senate, make it worse, or will they make no difference?
  • And looking ahead, do you think a future government should keep these changes or go back to the previous ways of appointing Senators?

According to the posted results, some 77 percent of respondents want to carry on with the new system of appointments, while three percent wanted the old way of appointment.  Some 70 percent liked the open application process, and 83 percent liked the independent advisory board.  A further 81 percent liked that new senators don't sit with a political party, contrasting with five percent who don't agree with the move toward independence.

Overall, some 59 percent felt the changes will improve the Senate, three percent felt it will make it worse, and 24 percent felt it would make no difference.  Of course, only 37 percent of the respondents actually had a positive impression of the Senate (which was up from 25 percent in a 2016 poll), while 46 percent still hold a negative impression.  It's as though decades of stories about how terrible the institution was have left a lasting impression or something.

Why do these results matter?  In short, because I fully expect the independent senators will use them as justification to carry on agitating for internal reforms and rule changes that may be seen to benefit them, but may do lasting damage to the institution because the vast majority of them don't actually understand the institution, its history, or even its role within Parliament as a whole.  Remember just a few weeks ago that the Independent Senators Group held their retreat and there were a lot of discussion items on their agenda that focused on questions like "What tools can the ISG use to leverage more public attention?" or what procedural changes would be "most compelling" from a public perspective as examples of Senate modernization.  In other words, they wanted to sell the public on how they were new and different from the "bad old Senate" without actual regard for the fact that those changes could have material consequences to Parliament.  Waving poll results around to try and push for changes to get public approval is a dangerous game.

It's easy to get people to respond to poll questions on less partisanship because we are conditioned to think that partisanship is a bad thing (when other people are engaged in it, mind you — nobody thinks that they're partisan).  What it fails to capture — and what nearly all of the new Independent senators fail to grasp — is that there is a place for partisanship in the Senate, and that it's actually a very bad thing to completely divorce senators from the parliamentary caucus rooms.  What most people don't realize is that the Senate is the institutional memory of Parliament, and that includes within party caucuses.  The fact that they have institutional independence means that it's easier for them to push back against their leaders over poor plans and ill-conceived ideas because they don't have to worry about not getting their nomination papers signed, and they can offer a check on the power of the leader behind the closed caucus room doors.  This is why Justin Trudeau's decision to expel all of the Liberal senators not only had the effect of centralizing his power, it left his caucus of mostly newbie MPs hobbled in terms of having experienced voices that they could turn to.

Now, that doesn't mean that there isn't a place for Independent senators.  If the chamber were actually functioning at its best, we would see a roughly equal number of Conservatives, Liberals, and Independent cross-benchers that would not only let the Senate retain its institutional memory function, but which would also avoid the problems that came with the duopoly of power.  Not that these new Independent senators see this — they are fixated on a vision of a Senate that is nothing but independents, because they don't understand how the Chamber functions in practice, let alone in theory.

The other reason why this poll bothers me is because a number of those Independent senators plan to use it as political leverage in the upcoming election.  Their press release warned that Andrew Scheer has promised to scrap this new appointment process that apparently everybody loves (and they have polling data to prove it), and Senator Yuen Pau Woo, the "facilitator" of the Independent Senators Group, keeps tweeting that he wants Senate appointments to be an election issue, seemingly oblivious to the fact that this means he is de facto shilling for Justin Trudeau in spite of his vaunted independent status.  Whether that's naiveté or a brand of arrogance in which he doesn't realize the message he's sending remains to be seen, but it's not the Senate's job to poll well.  Its job is to be sober second thought, which means avoiding the electioneering of the Other Place.  Trying to insert senators into the election, good poll numbers or not, is a dangerous game.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


By tabling Bill 21, An Act respecting the laicity of the State, and by invoking from the start the notwithstanding clause, the current Quebec government is trying to put an end to a debate that has been raging for almost 15 years now.  Still, Premier François Legault is said to have been surprised by the virulence of the opposition to the bill, which aims to ban some public employees from wearing religious symbols.

The question of religious symbols is an explosive and complex file, were laicity proponents, biggots and racists are put in the same bag by many opponents.  It's a lazy but easy argument to make, with a Montreal island Mayor calling the legislation "ethnic cleansing".

Feminists factions are opposing each other, one side claiming that some symbols are really a symbol of oppression towards women, while the other side stands fast by the principle that the State should not tell women what to wear, and indeed to do so restricts many of these women's freedoms further.

Legault took to the airwaves to plead for support for what he dubbed is a moderate approach, stating that it was time the government puts in place clear rules for everyone: "In Quebec, it's been a long time since we decided to separate religion from the state, and we have been debating religious symbols for 10 years."

The use of the notwithstanding clause has three consequences.

First, it aims to avoid long legal battles: the use of the notwithstanding clause in the Canadian and Quebec charters of rights and freedoms is shielding Bill 21 from any court challenges.  From a taxpayers' point of view, this will at the very least be a money-saving measure.

Second, by using it before any court proceeding, it is also a tacit admission that the government is indeed trampling on the rights of Quebecers.  Legault can argue that it is a legitimate tool (it is); that it has been used by former premiers René Lévesque and Robert Bourassa (it was); the fact of the matter is that Bill 21, like other similar attempts in the past, would be quashed by the Courts for being in violation of the Charter of Rights.

Third, and most importantly, the notwithstanding clause needs to be renewed every five years to remain valid.  Which means that, despite his stated wishes, the debate will not end with the adoption of Bill 21: the question of reconducting the notwithstanding clause will certainly become a significant issue in the next general election, set for October 2022.

This, in fact, might actually be the ultimate endgame of the CAQ: by avoiding Court rulings on the substance of the bill and by making sure the debate will resurface in the election, the CAQ is already framing the debate in a way to appeal to the voters who elected them a few months ago.

A wild card, at this stage, is how this debate will play out during the upcoming federal election.  Last time, no event had more impact on the election than when the Federal Court of Appeal ruled from the bench that women could take her citizenship oaths and votes in the federal election wearing a veil.

The NDP's campaign went sideways as a result, as Tom Mulcair stood by his convictions while under heavy fire.  There is no question that current Leader Jagmeet Singh will obviously be a target because of his own convictions.

The Bloc Quebecois will no doubt try to use this issue to come back to life, just like they did in a despicable manner during the 2015 election.  The Bloc already has launched a billboard in english, basically telling the rest of Canada to mind its own business.

The Conservatives are split on Bill 21: Andrew Scheer continues to say that his party is committed to protecting individual rights, but his Quebec lieutenant Alain Rayes is publicly supporting the CAQ, along with other Quebec Tory MPs.

The Federal Liberals have been vocal in opposing Bill 21, including Prime Minister Trudeau.  The question is, if they really believe that the CAQ government is attacking fundamental human rights, what will they do about it?

The only tool in the box is the power of disallowance.  The Constitution provides that any Act of a provincial legislature must be sent to the Governor General and that the Federal cabinet may disallow any such Act and wipe it off the statute book within one year.

This power of disallowance has not been used by the Federal government since 1943.  Many argue that it is therefore a "spent power," still technically in the books, but not applicable.  That theory has not been tested, of course.  But would Justin Trudeau want to test it by using that power to nullify Bill 21?

If he does, the potential for a full blown constitutional crisis is very real and the consequences on the Liberal prospects in Quebec could be disastrous.  If he doesn't, all the Liberal rhetoric about standing for human rights and Canadian values will ring hollow, as Trudeau will in effect stand by and allow Canadians' rights to be trampled.

The dogs may bark, but the caravan will go on.

Photo Credit: Macleans

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Oops, they did it again.  To the horror of progressives so opposed to the possibility they denied its existence, Israeli voters returned Benjamin Netanyahu to the Prime Minister's office over real-world concerns about security and prosperity.

OK, not exactly.  Given Israel's ludicrous electoral system nobody "wins" an election.  But in giving Likud the same number of seats as whats-his-name's whatever party Israelis seem to have given Netanyahu the whip hand in forming a new coalition.  Which counts as winning there.

Nooooo, says the New York Times.  Tuesday night the "Grey Lady" blared at me "Israel's elections were a setback for Benjamin Netanyahu, exit polls showed."  NBC, more cautious, said "Exit polls show the Blue and White party, headed by former military chief Benny Gantz, has a narrow lead over the Likud, two TV stations say.  Another station showed them tied."  Or not.

By early Wednesday morning, the Times conceded grudgingly that "After Tight Race, Netanyahu Appears Poised to Form Israel's Next Government".  Two hours later "Israeli leader looks poised to win a new term" because "Mr. Netanyahu is widely credited with having built a strong economy and keeping Israel secure.  He has also delivered long-sought diplomatic victories, several of them with the help of President Trump."  And by breakfast time, the Times spat out, as "Breaking news" no less, "It's Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel now: His likely re-election as prime minister attests to the starkly conservative vision of the nation's voters."  By which time NBC admitted "Netanyahu claims 'colossal victory' as he appears set to keep power after tight Israeli election" while offering as a "News Alert" that "The results affirmed Israel's continued tilt to the right and further dimmed hopes of a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

In short, it's Israelis' fault for electing that crooked hard-line dunce Netanyahu over those who would accept the olive branches coming over from Gaza disguised as incendiary balloons and rockets.  So first it won't happen, then it can't be happening, and finally it only happened because Israelis are a basket of deplorables.  Which isn't news or even analysis disguised as news.  It's rubbish.

What's more, it does readers of these outlets a disservice, starting with the nonsensical "starkly conservative vision of the nation's voters".  Israelis are all over the spectrum, as anyone who's ever visited knows, and a lot did vote for the vacuously named "Blue and White" party of the distinguished but politically forgettable Gantz.  But Israelis rationally favour "a strong economy and keeping Israel secure" and have little time for carping by people who regard such concerns as alt-right.

For all the peculiarities of politics in the only democracy in the Middle East, the Israeli election is not an isolated incident.  Including liberals struggling to understand it or, to be blunt, not even making the effort that "struggling" implies.  The results did not affirm Israel's continued tilt to the right.  They affirmed the left's continued tilt into dangerous, smug fantasy including about a partner for peace across the Wall, something sensible Israelis sadly concluded years ago does not exist.

Sure, liberals talk about the prosperity of the little guy, the average person, the middle class and those working hard to join it.  But from Justin Trudeau's indifference to massive job losses in Canada's energy sector to U.S. Democrats' hypnotic fascination with the Green New Deal, which would so obviously torch the economy that its defiance of reality is clearly a feature not a bug, they just don't act like they care.  And many Trump backers see Democrats, liberal media and professors as regarding everyone in MAGA hats as racist, sexist homophobic hillbillies finally getting what they deserve.  Instead of compassion for an opioid epidemic driven by despair, they see a lot of slick talk from people who won't shut up about how compassionate they are except to unleash a torrent of abuse at anyone they don't like.

Now if you want to be a cold-hearted snob, it's a free country.  But please don't also be a loud idiot.  We have seen election after election won by people you despised and at some point you have to start admitting it's happening and develop a theory as to why.  Including recognizing that Democrats rallying around Bill Clinton for sexual harassment and perjury that got him disbarred and impeached, though not convicted, drastically lowered the tone of American politics in ways that have since come back to haunt them.  And us.

As for Netanyahu, his reelection may not prevent his prosecution.  But I think many voters' willingness to overlook his peccadillos, or possibly pecados, has less to do with feeling jaded than feeling legitimately worried about prosperity and security.  And abused, because Israel is surrounded by ferocious enemies and its friends are few and often unreliable.  Including, again, U.S. Democrats, for whom the lure of anti-Semitic anti-Zionism is starting to prove almost as hypnotic as that of the insane Green New Deal.  Why else feign outrage at Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib but work hard to keep them in your party?

Even after the Israeli results were in the Times tried to conjure up a different outcome.  After snarling about the "starkly conservative vision of the nation's voters" it said "With a new term and an expanded Likud party, Mr. Netanyahu would have the chance to form an even larger right-wing coalition of secular, ultra-Orthodox and even some extremist lawmakers — or, if he chooses, to try to forge a national unity government that brings in centrists."

What?  Maybe the centrists secretly won?  But if the voters are as starkly conservative as Netanyahu, what is the ideological or partisan appeal of reaching out to "centrists", as the Times habitually labels leftists.  (Try to imagine a Times headline about the "starkly liberal vision" of anyone's voters including in the district of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or for that matter Ihlan Omar.)  Meanwhile something called Vox responded to the result with "Israeli democracy is rotting from the inside".

Netanyahu, assuming he pulls a coalition together, will be the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, eclipsing the legendary David ben Gurion, and serving five terms as PM including four consecutively.  Perhaps outlets like the New York Times should try to explain why, instead of leaving readers befuddled by fantasy spun as news.

Photo Credit: Vox

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


 

"Doug Ford is the guy who wouldn't pay the extra for the 737 MAX safety features."

A friend posted this on social media hours before I sat down to write this week's column.  It is the most succinct summary of the Ontario premier's approach to fiscal policy that will ever be made.

In the first third of 2019, we have already seen a never-ending cascade of what I call Total Ford Moves.  These are policy changes and pronouncements that perfectly encapsulate Ford as a politician: showy, hasty, self-aggrandizing, uninterested in key details, and all over the map.  To be clear, not all of his decisions are TFMs, and not all TFMs are necessarily negative.  But when he does or says something that meets at least three out of the following seven criteria, it's fair to call it a Total Ford Move:

It is primarily or purely symbolic.

Take your pick: mandatory anti-carbon tax stickers at gas pumps, "Open for Business" signs border crossings, license plate changesprovincial logo changesboard firings and executive salary caps, or buck-a-beer  none of which has any tangible, lasting impact on the day-to-day lives of Ontarians.  One gets the impression that Ford took these ideas from a napkin someone scribbled on during an especially grueling campaign brainstorming session at Jack Astor's.  On brand for him, useless for everyone else.

It is designed to vest more power in the premier's office, particularly in his inner circle.

Last month, Ontario Integrity Commissioner J. David Wake found that Doug Ford had nothing to do with Doug Ford's friend Ron Taverner's appointment as commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police after the last one annoyed Doug Ford.  All right then.  Perhaps he also did not personally appoint two failed Progressive Conservative candidates and his campaign director to the board of the Trillium Foundation.  But he has defended his office's interference into a now-scuttled $6.7 billion Hydro One sale.  And he has decided that the best way to improve transit in the GTA is to bring it under his authority.  When he is not finding new ways to exert control, he is looking the other way as his staff does.  Which brings us to . . .

Any related problems are tied back to Dean "I'm Chief of Staff, Bitch" French.

Taverner was one.  Attempted cannabis shop raids were another, as was the unexplained firing of Ontario Power Generation board member Alykhan Velshi and, according to ousted MPP Randy Hillier, "a culture of fear and intimidation" at Queen's Park.  Evidently, French's loyalty to Ford is such that the premier doesn't even see the need to ask him about these accusations, when a more judicious boss would at least say "Tone it down, man."

It has been decided with minimal to no consultation from obvious stakeholders, who now strongly oppose it.

The worst example of this is the much-maligned attempt at reforming the province's autism funding model.  Obsessed with clearing the 23,000-strong wait list for publicly funded therapy, the government, represented by Social Services Minister Lisa MacLeod, set out to allocate funds on the basis of age and household instead of individual need.  After furious parents of autistic children pointed out that some may need to mortgage their homes to avoid the proper therapies on their own, MacLeod finally agreed to do more listening.  It was a rage-inducing embarrassment for her that could easily have been avoided, had she and her colleagues learned more about autism than season 1 of Atypicalcan get across.

It is focused on lowering top-line costs in the short term while putting underlying costs at risk of rising over time.

See above.  Also, see buck-a-beer.  Also, see his reduction of Toronto's city council, which as expected has done nothing to lower the actual cost of municipal government operations, and in fact has made it higher.

This is why economists matter, however much his defenders in the media and he does have a couple  insist otherwise.  But lest the Fordites recoil at the idea of hiring more experts (quelle horreur!), the average mom can tell you that paying a professional to fix the eavestroughs will spare you from having to spend too much on painkillers.

It is informed by a vision of Ontario that dates back to the 70s.

Why else would he believe that horse racing and casinos and malls are pillars of modern recreation that merit millions of dollars in "investment?"  Ford's image of tourism is reminiscent of British seaside resort operators who were left scrambling when overseas package holidays became popular.

It has something to do with alcohol.

On this file, Ford has done some of his least objectionable work, bringing Ontario's alcohol policy in line with that of the typical European airport.  Nonetheless, he does spend a great deal of time thinking about how to help Ontarians drink more, be it tailgatingcorner store saleslonger purchasing hours, and of course buck-a-beer.  Probably just as well.  There isn't much else to do during April snows.

Photo Credit: Toronto Star

Written by Jess Morgan

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The former Liberal cabinet minister doesn't fit the Conservative mould, nor does she belong with the NDP. So how about the Green Party?

On April 2, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tossed former cabinet ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal caucus.

Their cabinet resignations on principle and subsequent removal from caucus two months into the SNC-Lavalin controversy appear to be unprecedented in Canadian politics.

Wilson-Raybould and Philpott haven't determined what they'll do next or at least they're not saying.  The former seems intent on staying in federal politics, while the latter has simply said she will finish her term.

So I'm only going to explore Wilson-Raybould's next possible political home.

The Conservatives would obviously welcome Wilson-Raybould into their caucus.  She would instantly become a star candidate and a natural choice for a cabinet role if Andrew Scheer became the next prime minister.

But there's one big problem: she's fairly left of centre in her political leanings.  Her strong interest in environmental issues and affordable housing is perfectly fine and the Tories are obviously not opposed to these issues, but their solutions would be very different.  Aside from a shared interest in democratic reform, it's hard to exactly know how Wilson-Raybould would fit in.

And, as she recently told Vancouver Province columnist Mike Smyth, "I don't identify with the Conservatives' ideology."  Suffice to say, she won't end up on the Tory benches.

What about the NDP?

They appear to have shared interests in health care, education, the environment, Indigenous issues, housing and so forth.  NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh would certainly welcome her into the party and give her a prominent critic's role right off the bat.

But I'm not convinced Wilson-Raybould's left-leaning views go as far as the NDP's.  On the surface, she seems pretty sensible (for a current or ex-Liberal) when it comes to foreign policy, building pipelines and ensuring the private sector has a role to play in Canada.  These views simply wouldn't mesh with the NDP.

So she could join the NDP but it's not the best fit.

Wilson-Raybould could run in her riding of Vancouver-Granville as an independent or an independent Liberal.  It's certainly doable.  Various independents have sat in the House of Commons and a few have been elected, including recent examples like André Arthur, Chuck Cadman and John Nunziata.

According to an April 4-5 survey of 241 potential Vancouver-Granville voters conducted by Justason Market Intelligence, as an independent she would earn 33 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Liberals (24 per cent), NDP (21 per cent) and Tories (15 per cent).

But is there any point to running as an independent?

Her political influence would be minimal, as is the case for most independents.

And yes, she could sit as an independent MP, wait for Trudeau to either lose an election or resign as PM and/or party leader, and head back to the Liberals.  But if they don't want her for any reason, she's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

It's an easy role to play but her political future could end up being very cloudy.

And that brings us to Elizabeth May and the Green Party.  This seems to be the best fit of all given Wilson-Raybould's political leanings, especially on environmental issues.  The federal party has a solid base of support in her home province, and there are provincial Green politicians in B.C., New Brunswick, Ontario and Prince Edward Island.

Wilson-Raybould would immediately become the party's second-in-command in the House of Commons and could be exactly what the Greens have long needed to help elect more MPs.

Plus, she would have a real chance at career advancement when May eventually steps down and a new federal leader is required.  What better choice would there be than a former Crown prosecutor, Justice minister and attorney general who has been repeatedly praised by Canadians for being honest and ethical when compared to Trudeau and his Liberal government?

All things considered, Wilson-Raybould's next political home could be a Green one.

Troy Media columnist and political commentator Michael Taube was a speechwriter for former prime minister Stephen Harper.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


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The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The ouster of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal caucus has reignited a conversation about just how maverick we think that parties should allow MPs to be.  It's one of those constant struggles in how we conceive of politics in this country we demand that MPs be more independent and that they more closely represent the views of their constituents, and yet we also demand complete loyalty to parties and to leaders and the media will police that loyalty.  Is there a distinction to draw here between MPs who are considered "mavericks" within the fold and those who are considered dissident?  Well, it depends.

To start off with, we need to go back to the fact that the original sin here is the bastardized leadership selection system that we've adopted in Canada.  By placing the selection of leaders into the hands of the party membership, away from the caucus, it gave those leaders a sense of "democratic legitimacy" that meant that they no longer had to be accountable to their MPs, and this false sense of legitimacy grew into entitlement and eventually parties began hollowing themselves out and turning into personality cults centred around the leaders.  Because leaders could win without the support of caucus, MPs (or their provincial equivalents) were made fully aware of just how much they mattered to the leader essentially not at all which in turn had a pretty deleterious effect on how MPs felt that they could assert themselves, which is to say, there was little latitude to do so, the longer this system has existed.

The thing about "maverick" MPs that we need to remember is that by and large, they tend to be longer-term MPs that come from fairly safe ridings it insulates them from disapproval by the party leadership.  This has especially been proven true in the UK, where they have the added impetus of knowing that they'll never make it into Cabinet (particularly if their party forms government), so they have the latitude to break ranks more often.  That's trickier in Canada because our House of Commons has fewer seats, there are more opportunities for Cabinet or parliamentary secretary roles, so the incentive to be a "team player" is much greater unless you're from a region where the party has a lot of seats and you're not a desirable demographic for a Cabinet seat based on representation.  It's partially why it's allowed MPs like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith and Wayne Long to be a bit more outspoken, and to his credit, Justin Trudeau hasn't moved to shut them down.

In the case of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, however, we also have to remember that neither was a long-time Liberal before the election Wilson-Raybould in particular keeps talking about how she wasn't into partisan politics before she was approached to run for office and that means that they came into the job with a different set of expectations than other, longer-term supporters.  We can't deny that there are a lot of MPs in the Liberal caucus right now who are essentially instant Liberals, in part because of the rise of Trudeau.  Wilson-Raybould remarked in an interview last week that she no longer understands the Liberal Party, but I'm not sure that she really quite understood it to begin with especially given that the party has so contorted itself around Trudeau's messianic rise to power (particularly if you look at how they reshaped the entire party's constitution to suit Trudeau's vision).  There may be some core values that remain intact, but it seems clear that Wilson-Raybould has not quite understood the dynamics at play within the party.  Likewise, with Jane Philpott, there seems to be a certain level of naiveté to her understanding of how politics works, which explains why she was so stunned when Trudeau ultimately decided to oust her (though I do think this is a big loss for both the caucus and for Canadian politics in general, given just how competent she was as a Cabinet minister).

With this in mind, there does seem to be some confusion in Canada by parties (and by the media that covers them) about the difference between Cabinet solidarity and caucus solidarity.  Cabinet solidarity exists because the government meaning Cabinet exists or falls as a whole and not on the basis of individuals.  The principle goes hand-in-hand with Cabinet confidence, which means that they have the ability to hash out their differences in frank discussion behind closed doors, but afterward, they present as a united front, and if a member of Cabinet can't abide by that, then they are obligated to resign as Philpott did.  This ordinarily should not be cause for expulsion from the caucus, but in Philpott's case, the calculation around her ouster was likely around that damning interview with Maclean's and the revelation by other reporters that she was shopping around stories with a media strategy in mind.

The confusion around imagined notions of caucus solidarity stem from a similar place there is caucus confidence so that they can have full and frank discussions amongst themselves, and that they can do so within the safety of the room knowing that it won't become fodder for the opposition, which is one reason why cellphones and BlackBerries are not allowed in the room, and why MPs aren't allowed to take notes.  This is also why Wilson-Raybould's decision to secretly record her conversation with Michael Wernick struck a nerve with her fellow MPs because there was a sense that their frank discussions could be next.  This, however, shouldn't preclude MPs from breaking ranks as they're not in Cabinet.  Of course, we haven't had a good track record of parties that allow dissent either the Conservatives under Stephen Harper were largely on message lockdown and they were tightly scripted, whereas the NDP has a culture whereby they must always act in solidarity, or else sanctions are imposed on dissenters, so the internal policing of independent thought is at least as strong as the external policing by media.

So could Wilson-Raybould or Philpott be considered mavericks, or were they dissidents?  I'm not sure that they quite qualified as mavericks, given that there wasn't a sense of "reasonable people can have disagreements" that comes with most MPs who break ranks, and when you couple that with the fact that they didn't have strong party roots, it doesn't fit the mould.  The fact that the media strategy and the breaking of trust with the recording seemed less about honest disagreement than it did about other objectives, which is likely why they were branded dissidents.  But it's important that we know the difference between them, lest we treat all mavericks as apostates.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.